{"id":499048,"date":"2010-04-01T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/history-says-this-ecri-rollover-means-stocks-are-about-to-decline-2010-4"},"modified":"2010-04-01T06:00:00","modified_gmt":"2010-04-01T10:00:00","slug":"history-says-this-ecri-rollover-means-stocks-are-about-to-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/499048","title":{"rendered":"History Says This ECRI Rollover Means Stocks Are About To Decline"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>(This guest post originally appeared at the <a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/does-the-ecris-growth-rate-decline-mean-stocks-are-set-to-decline\">author&#8217;s blog<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The ECRI has been adamant that the decline in the growth rate of their Weekly Leading Indicator will not result in a double dip (<a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/ecri-the-recovery-remains-strong\" >see here for more<\/a>).&nbsp; They say the year over year growth is simply coming off of record highs as opposed to signaling a significant slow-down.&nbsp; But the slow-down in growth rate in recent weeks could have different implications for equity investors.&nbsp; Recent research from Morgan Stanley found that the decline in leading indicators is one more notch in the case against higher stock prices (<a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/morgan-stanley-the-rally-is-near-its-end\" >see here for the full report<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bb46e277f8b9a0c2d8c0200\/chart.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Based on the study, which goes back over 30 years, the equity markets are down 80% of the time 6 months after a peak in the WLI growth rate.&nbsp; Taking a longer perspective, however, the ECRI is likely correct in their optimistic outlook.&nbsp; 12 months following a peak the equity markets have been generally higher.&nbsp; According to this the bull market might well be intact, but near-term risks remain:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bb46e467f8b9a161d690200\/chart.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"chart\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/pragcap.com\/\"><strong>Read more market commentary at The Pragmatic Capitalist &gt;<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/history-says-this-ecri-rollover-means-stocks-are-about-to-decline-2010-4#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/3clwmtP9kCc\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This guest post originally appeared at the author&#8217;s blog) The ECRI has been adamant that the decline in the growth rate of their Weekly Leading Indicator will not result in a double dip (see here for more).&nbsp; They say the year over year growth is simply coming off of record highs as opposed to signaling [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-499048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/499048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=499048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/499048\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=499048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=499048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=499048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}