{"id":503739,"date":"2010-04-01T17:47:11","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T21:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/2010-04-01-the-future-of-freezing\/"},"modified":"2010-04-01T17:47:11","modified_gmt":"2010-04-01T21:47:11","slug":"the-future-of-freezing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/503739","title":{"rendered":"The future of freezing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t\t\tby Ben Strauss <\/p>\n<p>Cross-posted from <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/breaking\/blog\/the_future_of_freezing\">Climate Central<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>In many parts of the U.S. March went out like a lion this year.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>But a new<a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/maps\/the_future_of_freezing\"> interactive map<\/a> of high-resolution climate projections from <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/\">Climate Central<\/a> promises much tamer, warmer Marches in the future. In fact, freezing March temperatures will retreat northward this<br \/>\ncentury like a routed army. (The retreat would slow to about half the speed<br \/>\nunder a low carbon pollution scenario.)<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/maps\/the_future_of_freezing\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Click on the image above to view the map.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Of course, the idea of thawing temperatures seems pretty nice at<br \/>\nthe end of a long, snowy winter like the one we just had in parts of the U.S., and the trend does promise earlier starts for golfers, gardeners, and farmers in the future.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>But warmer Marches also mean earlier snowmelt&#8212;and that&#8217;s not such good news.<br \/>\nAcross the American West, early snowmelt years have already been linked<br \/>\nto <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/library\/climopedia\/warmer_temperatures_are_drying_western_forests\">drier rivers and forests<\/a> later in summer and to much <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/library\/climopedia\/much_more_wildfire_burns_in_the_west_during_years_with_early_snowmelt\">higher wildfire activity<\/a> (see this video on <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/videos\/broadcast\/washington_warming_and_wildfires\">the fire situation in Washington State<\/a>).<br \/>\nScientists project these problems will worsen with further<br \/>\nwarming. And water shortages will present challenges for farm irrigation and <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/library\/climopedia\/rising_temperatures_threaten_to_reduce_trout_habitat_in_the_american_west\">trouble for trout<\/a> and other cold-water stream life (explored more in this <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/videos\/broadcast\/montana_trout_and_drought\">video about Montana<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/maps\/the_future_of_freezing\">Climate Central&#8216;s maps<\/a> show what will happen to average March temperatures if we continue to emit carbon at today&#8217;s high rate. By the end of this century, all states analyzed will experience a majority or near complete loss of areas<br \/>\nin which average March temperatures are currently below freezing.<br \/>\nThe biggest losers, in terms of total area, will be Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota; but seven states, from Arizona to Wisconsin, are<br \/>\nprojected to lose just about all their frozen March acreage.<br \/>\n(For a full tally, see <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/maps\/the_future_of_freezing#table\">this table<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting to note that while Washington, D.C. had record-breaking winter snows this year, <a href=\"http:\/\/voices.washingtonpost.com\/capitalweathergang\/2010\/03\/the_march_without_a_freeze.html\" >March temperatures in the nation&#8217;s capitol never dipped below freezing<\/a>&#8212;a new record for warmth.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Speaking of warmth, the thaw season has just begun in the Arctic. Over recent<br \/>\ndecades, the Arctic has been the fastest-warming region on the planet,<br \/>\na pattern scientists expect to continue. Arctic warming trends and their<br \/>\nconsequences&#8212;shown in this new <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/videos\/web_features\/arctic_changes_the_big_picture\">video<\/a> short (based mainly on NASA satellite data)&#8212;make projections of March warming in the U.S. look tame.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/videos\/web_features\/arctic_changes_the_big_picture\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Click on the image above to watch the video. <\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>For example, Greenland is shedding ice at a rapid pace; the average net loss per year from 2004 to 2007 was about <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/graphics\/accelerated_ice_loss\">25 times greater than the average from 1992-2002<\/a>.<br \/>\nHow much of this shift may have come from natural variation and how<br \/>\nmuch from human-caused warming is difficult to assess. But two things<br \/>\nare clear: Arctic warming means <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/graphics\/greenland_total_ice_loss_2004-07\">Greenland ice loss<\/a>, and&nbsp;Greenland ice loss&nbsp;means&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/library\/climopedia\/climate_change_is_causing_sea_level_to_rise\">rising seas<\/a>. Recent scientific studies that take Arctic trends into account generally <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/library\/climopedia\/global_sea_level_could_rise_over_three_feet_this_century\">project more than a three-foot rise<\/a> in sea level this century.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Another key trend just coming to light is that the crust of ice that covers parts of the Arctic Ocean has been <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/graphics\/skating_on_thin_arctic_ice_winter\">getting thinner<\/a>. Most observers have focused on the <a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/microanimations\/arctic_sea_ice_by_the_decade\">shrinking extent<\/a> of Arctic sea ice. But the ice appears to be thinning even faster. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.agu.org\/pubs\/crossref\/2009\/2009GL041434.shtml\" >Just-published research<\/a> (subscription required) suggests that the ice may be thinner than<br \/>\nwe thought, a troubling finding since thinner ice is more vulnerable to<br \/>\nfuture disintegration.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Bright, white sea ice reflects the sun&#8217;s energy back into space&#8212;like a giant<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/climatecentral.org\/gallery\/microanimations\/arctic_sea_ice_heat_shield\">planetary heat shield<\/a>. As sea ice disappears, more dark ocean is exposed, absorbing more of the sun&#8217;s heat, and accelerating Arctic warming.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>So, as we dump our winter coats and turn our minds to spring&#8212;let&#8217;s take a moment to celebrate the cold days of March, while they&#8217;re still with us!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/without-affordable-clean-alternatives-south-africa-turns-to-coal\/\">Without affordable clean alternatives, South Africa turns to coal<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/the-changing-threat-to-water-global-warming-world-water-day\/\">The changing threat to water: Global warming &amp; World Water Day<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.grist.org\/article\/stealing-home-james-hansens-audacious-battle-to-save-the-planet\/\">Stealing home: James Hansen&#8217;s audacious battle to save the planet<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/click.phdo?s=ab1613ac243056a2954d5ad9a2e57b07&#038;p=1\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" style=\"border: 0;\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/ads.pheedo.com\/img.phdo?s=ab1613ac243056a2954d5ad9a2e57b07&#038;p=1\"\/><\/a><br \/>\n<!-- foo --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Ben Strauss Cross-posted from Climate Central. In many parts of the U.S. March went out like a lion this year. But a new interactive map of high-resolution climate projections from Climate Central promises much tamer, warmer Marches in the future. In fact, freezing March temperatures will retreat northward this century like a routed army. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":765,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-503739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503739","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/765"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=503739"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/503739\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=503739"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=503739"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=503739"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}