{"id":517883,"date":"2010-04-06T03:07:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-06T07:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1752027331714385066.post-2316752793329940771"},"modified":"2010-04-06T03:07:27","modified_gmt":"2010-04-06T07:07:27","slug":"peak-oil-now-been-accepted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/517883","title":{"rendered":"Peak Oil Now Been Accepted"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/a><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
When I started covering the development of the peak oil crisis, it was by quoting this writer back in 2007.  At the time everyone was willingly blind and even trying to insist it was not happening.  This has largely changed.  The collapse in 2008 was brought on first by an abrupt run up in the price of oil.  More precisely, it derailed the speeding train built on the sub prime pyramid scheme indulging the global banking industry.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Oil saw a high of $140 which was clearly unsustainable in terms of demand sustainability and worse in terms economic affordability.  It crumbled back to $30 some lows and has since recovered back to $80.  That is a good operating price.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
In the sixties, a man made $1.00 per hour in the <\/span>USA<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> and a barrel of oil was $1.00.  Today, that same man makes perhaps $10.00 per hour and a barrel of oil is $80.00.  Yet minimum wage workers and oil have similar shares in the <\/span>USA<\/span><\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place> economy.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
What we have learned is that the oil industry has an unsustainable piece of the <\/span>USA<\/span><\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place> economy and we are now feeling the distress caused.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
This article spells out that industry and other specialists are now on the same side of the story and the rest will soon follow.  You will be reading a lot more about this over the next couple of years.  It has become politically legit to begin talking about the problem.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
It is a problem, unlike the fading hysteria over global warming.  The global economy must move double time out of the oil industry.  The good news is that it is actually happening through many diverse avenues.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The good news is that we can likely survive a sudden sharp drop in oil production because we are rapidly bringing on the Iraqi fields.  The probability of such a large drop has been high and continues for the present.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
This article also makes clear that the oil industry itself recognizes these constraints and is now a natural ally for alternative energy.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
If I were Exxon today, I would simply divert all surplus capital straight into developing geothermal in <\/span>Nevada<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:state>.  It uses much the same technical skills in drilling and fluid management for the same purpose.  That way one remains firmly in the energy business while simply transitioning from oil to geothermal.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
As you read this article then remember that I am increasingly optimistic.  <\/span>North America<\/span><\/st1:place> at least needs to resolve its present 15,000,000 barrels per day consumption rate.  I think we can do it faster than we have to and quite completely while exiting the global oil market.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Everyone is now awake to the idea that an electric car is a great solution and we are close to solving the range issue.  We are also awake to the 60% loss factor in the electric grid system we have and are quickly moving to fix that.  And building a national efficient grid is now in the cards while tapping all sorts of new power is underway.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
In the meantime North American oil production is entering a growth surge of its own from advanced horizontal drilling methodology and the pending implementation of <\/span>THAI.<\/span><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>  I think it is completely feasible to actually displace all offshore oil.  We already have the flexibility to sharply reduce the take from obvious pukes.<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Officials Wake Up to Peak Oil, Part 1<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
By Chris Nelder | Friday, April 2nd, 2010<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
When I began writing about peak oil professionally in 2006, it was generally considered a tinfoil hat theory. The notion that oil production might peak around 2012 (plus or minus) was only taken seriously by a few analysts who were considered extremely pessimistic.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Official forecasts had no cognizance of it whatsoever. All were confident that oil supply would continue to grow steadily to 130 million barrels per day (mbpd) and beyond, at prices that would be considered astoundingly cheap by today’s standards. Oil companies rarely mentioned peak oil, and when they did, it was in a casually dismissive way.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
But as time marched on, the cornucopian arguments fell one by one. My longtime readers have seen the story unfold, but for the benefit of new readers, here’s a quick summary…<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Forecasts grew increasingly pessimistic as it became apparent that regular conventional crude supply had peaked at the end of 2004. Even as the biggest oil price spike in history ensued from 2005-2008, crude production remained flat and unresponsive.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
OPEC scaled back some of its development plans as costs soared. Non-OPEC production not only failed to deliver any actual increase, but began to decline. Forecasts were revised lower.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Corn ethanol boomed and busted, as it was revealed to be the net energy non-starter that serious analysts always knew it was. It also was suspected of adding pressure to food prices at a most inopportune time.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Unconventional production from oil shale and tar sands failed to grow as expected, as producers shied away from high-cost, low-production projects.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
The International Energy Agency (IEA) finally included the depletion of mature fields in its analysis, and became increasingly shrill in its warnings about future supply.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
A few current and former oil industry executives began making public statements about the diminishing prospects for new supply, and a few even acknowledged that it would be hard to increase production much beyond current levels.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Then high oil prices proved intolerable to an economy stretched thin by the bursting of the bubbles in the real estate and financial sectors.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Yet official recognition of the peak oil threat remained muted, couched in warnings about “adequate investment” and blithe assertions that demand would soon peak, averting any supply shortage.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
All that seems to have changed in the last month. A sudden deluge of reports and summit meetings suggest that the oil industry and energy officials are now taking peak oil very seriously indeed.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
UK<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> Task Force on Peak Oil: Shortages by 2015<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n

<\/span><\/i><\/b><\/div>\n
The first bombshell was actually dropped on February 10, when the UK<\/st1:country-region> Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security issued a report called “The Oil Crunch: A wake-up call for the UK<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> economy.” I only mentioned<\/a> it in passing at the time, but it was a stern warning that “oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political, and social activity potentially by 2015.”<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
It only made the news because Sir Richard Branson personally endorsed it; but the fact that the task force comprised top UK<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region> executives and energy experts lent it enough weight to be rather widely circulated in the press.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
The British government, including energy minister Lord Hunt, responded by staging a closed-door summit meeting with the taskforce on March 22. As the UK<\/st1:place><\/st1:country-region>‘s Guardian<\/span> reported<\/a>, the government intended to develop an action plan to contend with a near-term peak, and to “calm rising fears over peak oil.”<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
Veteran peak oil analyst and taskforce member Jeremy Leggett explained: “Government has gone from the BP position \u2014 ’40 years of supply left, the price mechanism works, no need to worry’ \u2014 to ‘crikey’.” He urged the assembly to properly assess the risks of peak oil, and to immediately begin preparing for the end of globalization and an era of oil shortages in the West.<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n
According to reports<\/a> from attendees, the summit yielded some important conclusions:<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/div>\n