{"id":520345,"date":"2010-04-08T09:30:25","date_gmt":"2010-04-08T13:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/knowledgeproblem.com\/?p=6655"},"modified":"2010-04-08T09:30:25","modified_gmt":"2010-04-08T13:30:25","slug":"prediction-markets-for-movie-box-office-manipulation-insider-trading-efficiency-and-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/520345","title":{"rendered":"Prediction markets for movie box office: Manipulation! Insider Trading! Efficiency! and Twitter!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Michael Giberson<\/em><\/p>\n

Tyler Cowen links<\/a> to a story in the New York Times<\/em> detailing the opposition of the Motion Picture Association of America to two proposed markets for forecasting movie ticket sales<\/a>. \u00a0Of the objections noted in the article, Cowen thinks the key issue for Hollywood is the possibility of a poor market showing making it difficult for a film to get into and stay in theaters. \u00a0The article also mentions possible market manipulation and insider trading issues as problems.<\/p>\n

Robin Hanson addressed the manipulation arguments a few days ago, “Movie Manipulation<\/a>“:<\/p>\n

My research\u00a0suggests<\/a> that speculative markets are remarkably robust to manipulation attempts; the more folks try to manipulate, the\u00a0more<\/em> accurate market estimates get on average!\u00a0 But with limited funding, I\u2019ve only done a limited number of experiments; I can\u2019t prove no one will\u00a0ever<\/em> use a speculative market to purposely influence movie perceptions.\u00a0 And alas this mere possibility of manipulation may seem intolerable.<\/p>\n

Part of what the movie industry fears is further loss of influence over pre-release product positioning, but this is clearly an area where “information wants to be free” will overcome the industry’s desire to control the pre-release buzz.<\/p>\n

Rumors and reports now spread more efficiently, thanks in part to the internet, and once a film is out the internet gives us “word of mouth on steriods.” \u00a0Fast Company<\/a><\/em> reports<\/a>:\u00a0”Two researchers at HP Labs, Sitaram Asur and Bernardo Huberman,\u00a0have discovered that you can actually use Twitter mentions to predict how well a movie will do in it’s first couple weekends of release.”<\/p>\n

The Fast Company<\/em> article notes that Twitter analysis method actually outpredicts the (play money) movie prediction market Hollywood Stock Exchange. \u00a0At Midas Oracle<\/em>, Chris Masse countered<\/a>, “You could turn\u00a0Bernardo Huberman<\/a>\u2019s\u00a0study<\/a> around<\/a> and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible.” \u00a0Now the Twitter angle is public information, that omission will be overcome. (And how soon before Hollywood studios begin mass-Twitter marketing campaigns?)<\/p>\n

See also:\u00a0Deadline,<\/em> “MPAA Organizes Entertainment Community Opposition To Movie Futures Exchange<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Michael Giberson Tyler Cowen links to a story in the New York Times detailing the opposition of the Motion Picture Association of America to two proposed markets for forecasting movie ticket sales. \u00a0Of the objections noted in the article, Cowen thinks the key issue for Hollywood is the possibility of a poor market showing making […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4109,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-520345","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520345","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4109"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=520345"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/520345\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=520345"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=520345"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=520345"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}