{"id":523036,"date":"2010-04-10T18:31:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-10T22:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/will-90-oil-kill-the-recovery-2010-4"},"modified":"2010-04-10T18:31:00","modified_gmt":"2010-04-10T22:31:00","slug":"will-90-oil-kill-the-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/523036","title":{"rendered":"Will $90 Oil Kill The Recovery?"},"content":{"rendered":"

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Do rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery?<\/a><\/p>\n

Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum<\/a>. Oil had been holding around $80\/barrel over the last month, but traded as high as $87 last week, leading the Financial Times<\/a> to ask whether oil could give the “kiss of death to recovery.” Here is how I would answer that question.<\/p>\n

See Hamilton’s post for his analysis<\/a> with several graphs. He concludes:<\/p>\n

$87 oil is certainly not helping the recovery. But I would be very surprised if it proves to be the kiss of death.<\/p>\n

And with the opposite view from the Financial Times article<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Olivier Jakob, of Swiss consultant Petromatrix, said in a note that the “recovery of 2009 was fuelled with crude oil at $62 a barrel, not at $90 a barrel or $100 a barrel. We fear that the latest run on WTI will be the kiss of death for a global economy that was trying to avoid the possibility of a double-dip recession.”<\/p>\n

I tend to agree with Dr. Hamilton. However I also watch vehicle miles driven from the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the DOT recently reported<\/a> that vehicle miles driven in January were down from January 2009:<\/p>\n

Travel on all roads and streets changed by -1.6% (-3.7 billion vehicle miles) for January 2010 as compared with January 2009. Travel for the month is estimated to be 222.8 billion vehicle miles.<\/p>\n

Here is a repeat of the graph I posted last month:<\/p>\n

\"Vehicle<\/a>Click on graph for larger image in new window.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This graph shows the percent change from the same month of the previous year as reported by the DOT.<\/p>\n

As the DOT noted, miles driven in January 2010 were down -1.6% compared to January 2009, and miles driven have declined 2.9% compared to January 2008, and are down 4.7% compared to January 2007. <\/p>\n

If miles driven continues to decline, I’ll be more concerned about oil prices.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

This post<\/a> is reprinted from Calculated Risk.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Join the conversation about this story »<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

From Professor Hamilton at Econbrowser: Do rising oil prices threaten the economic recovery? Ten of the 11 recessions in the United States since World War II have been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude petroleum. Oil had been holding around $80\/barrel over the last month, but traded as high as $87 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-523036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/523036","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=523036"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/523036\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=523036"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=523036"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=523036"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}