{"id":527198,"date":"2010-04-14T08:27:16","date_gmt":"2010-04-14T12:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/?p=22712"},"modified":"2010-04-14T08:27:16","modified_gmt":"2010-04-14T12:27:16","slug":"the-complete-guide-to-modern-day-climate-change-all-the-data-you-need-to-show-that-the-world-is-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/527198","title":{"rendered":"The complete guide to modern day climate change &#8211; All the data you need to show that the world is warming"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em> <\/em><span>According  to the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007):<\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><\/p>\n<li>Warming  of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from  observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.<\/li>\n<li>At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales,  numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include  changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in  precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of  extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and  the intensity of tropical cyclones.<\/li>\n<li>Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation  that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the  previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly  warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago),  reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.<\/li>\n<li>Most of the observed increase in globally averaged  temperatures since the mid-20th century is <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">very likely<\/span> due to the  observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This  is an advance since the [Third <span>Assessment Report&#8217;s 2001]<\/span> conclusion that \u201cmost of the observed  warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the  increase in greenhouse gas concentrations\u201d. Discernible human influences  now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming,  continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind  patterns.<\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ul>\n<p>Let  us take a look at some of the evidence:<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-22712\"><\/span><em>This post is by guest Blogger Scott A. Mandia, Professor of  Physical Sciences at <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sunysuffolk.edu\/\">Suffolk County Community College<\/a>, Long Island, NY.\u00a0 Mandia holds an M.S. Meteorology from Penn State University and a B.S. Meteorology from University of Lowell (now called UMass &#8211; Lowell). Mandia has been teaching introductory meteorology and paleoclimatology courses for 23 years. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Temperature Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>20  of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 25 years.  The  warmest year globally was 2005 with the years 2009, 2007, 2006, 2003,  2002, and 1998 all tied for 2<sup>nd<\/sup> within statistical certainty.   (Hansen et al., 2010)  The warmest decade has been the 2000s, and each  of the past three decades has been warmer than the decade before and  each set records at their end.  <strong>The odds of this being a natural  occurrence are estimated to be one in a billion!<\/strong> (Schmidt and  Wolfe, 2009) <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>According  to NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt (Romm, 2009): <\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span><em><strong>The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year  period of the modern record. Even if you analyze the trend during that  10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming.<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span>Figure  7.1 (IPCC, 2007) shows the global mean temperature anomalies (compared  to 1961-1990) from the years 1850 to 2005.  Figure 7.1a (NCDC, 2008)  shows the global mean temperature anomalies with error bars from the  years 1880 to 2007. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/global_mean_temperature.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Global Mean Temperatures\" width=\"600\" height=\"416\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.1: Global mean temperature anomalies (compared  to 1961-1990) from the years 1850 to 2005<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/global-jan-dec-error-bar.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Global Mean Temperatures NCDC\" width=\"600\" height=\"311\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.1a: Global mean temperature anomalies from the  years 1880 to 2008<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.2 (Tamino, 2009) clearly shows that surface temperatures north of  latitude 60<sup>o<\/sup> are warming at an accelerated rate in the past  few decades.  Tamino retrieved 113 station records at latitude 60<sup>o<\/sup>N  or higher with at least 30 years of data. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/tamino_arctic%20warming-1.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Arctic Surface Temperatures\" width=\"500\" height=\"325\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.2: Arctic surface temperatures since 1948.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Tamino  (2009) explains <a title=\"Arctic Analysis\" href=\"http:\/\/tamino.wordpress.com\/2009\/09\/11\/arctic-analysis\/\">here<\/a> and <a title=\"Reply to Lucy Skywalker\" href=\"http:\/\/tamino.wordpress.com\/2009\/09\/13\/reply-to-lucy-skywalker\/\">here<\/a>.  The analyses show: <\/span><\/p>\n<ol><span><\/p>\n<li>The  Arctic has experienced a sudden, recent warming.<\/li>\n<li>In the last decade extreme northern temperature has risen to  unprecedented heights.<\/li>\n<li>Over the last 3 decades, every individual station north of 70<sup>o<\/sup> indicates warming, 13 of 17 are significant at 95% confidence, all  estimated trend rates are faster than the global average, some are more  than five times as fast.<\/li>\n<li>Oft-repeated claims that \u201cit was warmer in the 1930s\u201d or \u201cit  was warmer in the 1940s\u201d are wrong.<\/li>\n<li>The idea that present arctic temperatures are about equal to  their 1958 values is wrong.<\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ol>\n<p><span>Kauffman  et al. (2009) also shows that the Arctic was experiencing long-term  cooling in the past 2000 years according to Milankovitch cycles until  very recently.  Figure 7.3 (ibid) reveals this trend shift: <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>A Hockey Stick in Melting Ice<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ucar.edu\/news\/releases\/2009\/images\/Fig.final_11.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.ucar.edu\/news\/releases\/2009\/images\/Fig.final_sm.jpg\" alt=\"figure\" width=\"675\" height=\"250\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span> <span>Figure 7.3: Recent warming reverses long-term arctic  cooling<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kaufmann  et al. summarizes their study: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><em>The  temperature history of the first millennium C.E. is sparsely  documented, especially in the Arctic. We present a synthesis of  decadally resolved proxy temperature records from poleward of 60 <sup>o<\/sup>N  covering the past 2000 years, which indicates that a pervasive cooling  in progress 2000 years ago continued through the Middle Ages and into  the Little Ice Age. A 2000-year transient climate simulation with the  Community Climate System Model shows the same temperature sensitivity to  changes in insolation as does our proxy reconstruction, supporting the  inference that this long-term trend was caused by the steady orbitally  driven reduction in summer insolation. <strong>The cooling trend was reversed  during the 20th century, with four of the five warmest decades of our  2000-year-long reconstruction occurring between 1950 and 2000.<\/strong> <\/em> <\/span><\/ul>\n<p><span><a name=\"Ice\"><\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Arctic Ice &amp; Glacial Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Further  signs of this warming trend can be seen in the Northern Hemisphere Sea  Ice Extent from the <a href=\"http:\/\/nsidc.org\/\">National Snow and Ice  Data Center<\/a>.  Figure 7.4 shows sea ice extent since 1953.  For  January 1953 through December 1979, data have been obtained from the UK  Hadley Centre and are based on operational ice charts and other sources.  For January 1979 through July 2009, data are derived from satellite.    Figure 7.4a shows the most current sea ice extent from satellite  measurements.  <strong>Sea ice extent has been dramatically reduced since  1953.<\/strong> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/sea_ice_mean_anomaly_1953-2009.png\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Ice Extent Since 1953\" width=\"600\" height=\"384\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.4: Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent since  1953<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/nsidc.org\/data\/seaice_index\/images\/n_plot_hires.png\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Ice Extent\" width=\"45%\" height=\"45%\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.4a: Current Northern Hemisphere sea ice  extent from satellite measurements<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Sea  ice extent is just part of the picture.  Sea ice thickness has also  been measured by submarine and ICESat satellite measurement. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.5 (Rothrock, et al., 1999) shows sea ice thickness has substantially  declined.  Using data from submarine cruises, Rothrock and collaborators  determined that the mean ice draft at the end of the melt season in the  Arctic has decreased by about 1.3 meters between the 1950s and the  1990s. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/sea_ice_draft.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Ice Draft\" width=\"375\" height=\"350\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.5: Mean sea ice draft: Decrease in Arctic  sea ice draft for 1958 to 1997.<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Since  2004 and there has been a dramatic decrease in thickness according to  NASA&#8217;s press release, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nasa.gov\/topics\/earth\/features\/icesat-20090707r.html\"> NASA Satellite Reveals Dramatic Arctic Ice Thinning<\/a> dated July,  2009.  Some excerpts: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><em>Using  ICESat measurements, scientists found that overall Arctic sea ice  thinned about 0.17 meters (7 inches) a year, for a total of 0.68 meters  (2.2 feet) over four winters. The total area covered by the thicker,  older &#8220;multi-year&#8221; ice that has survived one or more summers shrank by  42 percent.<\/em> <\/span><span><em>In  recent years, the amount of ice replaced in the winter has not been  sufficient to offset summer ice losses. The result is more open water in  summer, which then absorbs more heat, warming the ocean and further  melting the ice. Between 2004 and 2008, multi-year ice cover shrank 1.54  million square kilometers (595,000 square miles) &#8212; nearly the size of  Alaska&#8217;s land area. <\/em> <\/span><span><em>During  the study period, the relative contributions of the two ice types to  the total volume of the Arctic&#8217;s ice cover were reversed. In 2003, 62  percent of the Arctic&#8217;s total ice volume was stored in multi-year ice,  with 38 percent stored in first-year seasonal ice. By 2008, 68 percent  of the total ice volume was first-year ice, with 32 percent multi-year  ice.<\/em> <\/span><\/ul>\n<p><span>Figure  7.5a (NASA, 2009) shows that overall ice thickness and multi-year ice  (MY) thickness are decreasing. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/NASA_sea_ice_thickness.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Ice Thickness\" width=\"600\" height=\"430\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.5a: Northern Hemisphere sea ice thickness<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/sea_ice_draft_composite.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Ice Thickness Composite\" width=\"494\" height=\"358\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.5b: Northern Hemisphere sea ice thickness  submarine &amp; ICESAT combined<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.5b (Kwock &amp; Rothrock, 2009) shows the mean thicknesses of six  Arctic regions for the three periods (1958\u2013 1976, 1993\u20131997, 2003\u20132007). Thicknesses have been seasonally adjusted  to September 15.  According to the authors: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><em>&#8220;The  overall mean winter thickness of 3.64 m in 1980 can be compared to a  1.89 m mean during the last winter of the ICESat record\u2014an astonishing  decrease of 1.75 m in thickness. Between 1975 and 2000, the steepest  rate of decrease is 0.08 m\/yr in 1990 compared to a slightly higher  winter\/summer rate of 0.10\/0.20 m\/yr in the five-year ICESat record  (2003\u20132008). Prior to 1997, ice extent in the DRA was &gt;90% during the  summer minimum. This can be contrasted to the gradual decrease in the  early 2000s followed by an abrupt drop to &lt;55% during the record  setting minimum in 2007.  <strong>This combined analysis shows a long-term  trend of sea ice thinning over submarine and ICESat records that span  five decades.<\/strong>&#8220;<\/em> <\/span><\/ul>\n<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"5\" cellpadding=\"5\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/greenman3610#p\/u\/2\/Y3dYhC_AlYw\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/climate_crock_2009-sea-ice.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"2009 Sea Ice Update\" width=\"120\" height=\"90\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/greenman3610#p\/u\/2\/Y3dYhC_AlYw\">Peter  Sinclair&#8217;s Climate Crock of the Week: 2009 Sea Ice Update<\/a><br \/>\nWatch this video to learn about the 2009 Arctic sea ice measurements.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"center\" valign=\"middle\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/greenman3610#p\/u\/23\/2nruCRcbnY0\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/climate_crock_icecaps.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Ice Caps\" width=\"120\" height=\"90\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/user\/greenman3610#p\/u\/23\/2nruCRcbnY0\">Peter  Sinclair&#8217;s Climate Crock of the Week: Ice Area vs. Volume<\/a><br \/>\nWatch this video to learn about the difference between ice area and ice  volume and why volume is more critical.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><span>Velicogna  (2009) used measurements from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.csr.utexas.edu\/grace\/\">GRACE (Gravity Recovery and  Climate Experiment)<\/a> satellite gravity mission to determine the ice  mass-loss for the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the period  between April 2002 and February 2009. During this time period the mass  loss of the ice sheets were accelerating with time implying that the ice  sheets contribution to sea level becomes larger with time. In Greenland  (Fig. 7.6), the mass loss increased from 137 Gt\/yr in 2002\u20132003 to 286  Gt\/yr in 2007\u20132009. In Antarctica (Fig. 7.7) the mass loss increased  from 104 Gt\/yr in 2002\u20132006 to 246 Gt\/yr in 2006\u20132009. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/greenland_ice_mass_loss.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Greenland Ice Mass Loss\" width=\"400\" height=\"316\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.6: Greenland Ice Mass Loss<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/antarctic_ice_mass_loss.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Antarctic Ice Mass Loss\" width=\"400\" height=\"326\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.7: Antarctic Ice Mass Loss<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>John  Cook at Skeptical Science has several very good summaries of this  research.  See: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.skepticalscience.com\/An-overview-of-Antarctic-ice-trends.html\">An  overview of Antarctic ice trends<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.skepticalscience.com\/An-overview-of-Greenland-ice-trends.html\">An  overview of Greenland ice trends<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.skepticalscience.com\/Why-is-Greenlands-ice-loss-accelerating.html\">Why  is Greenland&#8217;s ice loss accelerating?<\/a>.  <a name=\"Glaciers\"><\/a> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Glaciers  also are used as a signature for climate change.  Summer melting,  called <em>ablation<\/em>, controls the mass and extent of glaciers.  According to the World Glacier Monitoring Service (2009), preliminary  mass balance values for the observation periods 2005\/06 and 2006\/07 have  been reported from more than 100 and 80 glaciers worldwide,  respectively. The mass balance data are calculated based on all reported  values as well as on the data from the 30 reference glaciers in nine  mountain ranges in North America and Europe with continuous observation  series back to 1980. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span> The average mass balance of the glaciers with available long-term  observation series around the world continues to decrease, with  tentative figures indicating a further thickness reduction of 1.3 and  0.7 metres water equivalent (m w.e.) during the hydrological years 2006  and 2007, respectively. The new data continues the global trend in  accelerated ice loss over the past few decades and brings the cumulative  average thickness loss of the reference glaciers since 1980 at almost  11.3 m w.e. (see Figures 7.8 and 7.9). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/glacier_mass_loss1.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Glacial Mass Loss Reference Glaciers\" width=\"600\" height=\"390\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.8: Mean annual specific mass balance of  reference glaciers<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/glacier_mass_loss2.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Glacial Mass Loss Reported Glaciers\" width=\"600\" height=\"370\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.9: Mean cumulative specific mass balance of  all reported glaciers (black line) and the reference glaciers (red  line)<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Glacial  extent is also being monitored.  Figure 7.10 (ibid) shows worldwide  glacial extent measurements with red being a decrease and blue being an  increase in the length of the glacier. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"file:\/\/\/C:\/Documents%20and%20Settings\/spool\/Local%20Settings\/Temporary%20Internet%20Files\/OLK1\/images\/glacial_extent_lg.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/glacial_extent_th.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Glacial Extent - Click for Larger Image\" width=\"334\" height=\"483\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.10: Glacial extent &#8211; retreating (red) and  advancing (blue)<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>In  2005 there were 442 glaciers examined, 26 advancing, 18 stationary and  398 retreating.  <strong>90% of worldwide glaciers are retreating.<\/strong> In  2005, for the first time ever, no observed Swiss glaciers advanced. Of  the 26 advancing glaciers, 15 were in New Zealand. Overall there has  been a substantial volume loss of 11% of New Zealand glaciers from  1975-2005, but the number of advancing glacier is still significant.  (ibid) <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ocean Heat Content:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Much  of the heat that is delivered by the sun is stored in the Earth&#8217;s  oceans while only a fraction of this heat is stored in the atmosphere.   Therefore, a change in the heat stored in the ocean is a better  indicator of climate change than changes in atmospheric heat.  Figures  7.11 and 7.12 (Richardson et al., 2009) and 7.13 (NODC, 2009) clearly  show that the oceans have warmed significantly in recent years and the  trend is 50% greater than that reported by the IPCC in 2007. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/energy_content_copenhagen.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Energy content change of oceans\" width=\"562\" height=\"451\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.11: Change in energy content in different  components of the earth system for two periods: 1961-2003 (blue bars) and 1993-2003 (pink bars).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/ocean_heat_content_copenhag.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Ocean Heat Content Trend\" width=\"574\" height=\"448\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.12: Change in ocean heat content since 1951.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/heat_content55-07.png\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Ocean Heat Content Trend\" width=\"499\" height=\"336\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.13: Change in ocean heat content since 1955.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>There  have been a few published articles by Loehle (2009), Pielke (2008), and  Willis (2008) that suggest ocean heat content trend since 2003 has  either been flat or slightly negative.  Of course, a few years does not a  trend make but these results appear to be in conflict with the current  upward trend.  von Shuckmann, Gaillard, and Le Traon (2009) address this  apparent conflict in their article <em>Global hydrographic variability  patterns during 2003\u20132008.<\/em> Their data extends to 2000 m of ocean  depth in contrast to Loehle (2009), Pielke (2008), and Willis (2008)  data that only extends to 700 m.  von Shuckmann, Gaillard, and Le Traon  (2009) show that the heat content of the upper 500 m of ocean are  subject to strong seasonal and interannual variations primarily due to  salinity changes.  However, when considering the heat content of the  upper 2000 m of ocean, global mean heat content and height changes are  clearly associated with a positive trend during the 6 years of  measurements. Figure 7.14 below shows this trend. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/schuckmann.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Ocean Heat Content Trend Upper 2000 m\" width=\"600\" height=\"156\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.14: Change in global heat content for the  uppermost 2000 m of ocean between 2003 and 2008 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Murphy  et al. (2009) examined the Earth&#8217;s energy balance since 1950 including  ocean heat content, radiative forcing by long-lived trace gases, and  radiative forcing from volcanic eruptions. They considered the emission  of energy by a warming Earth by using correlations between surface  temperature and satellite data and show that the heat gained since 1950  is already quite significant.  Their findings are illustrated below.  (Cook, 2009) <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/Total-Heat-Content.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Total Heat Content since 1950\" width=\"489\" height=\"373\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.15: Total Earth Heat Content from 1950  (ibid)<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The  oceans are taking in almost all of the excess heat since the 1970s  which underscores the point that ocean heat content is a better  indicator of global warming than atmospheric temperatures.  Much of this  ocean heat will be vented to the atmosphere in the future thus  accelerating global warming. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A  superb discussion on this topic can be found at Skeptical Science&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.skepticalscience.com\/How-do-we-know-global-warming-is-still-happening.html\">How  we know global warming is still happening<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Precipitation Trends:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.16 (IPCC, 2007) shows the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI).  The  PDSI is a prominent index of drought. Red and orange areas are drier  (-PDSI) than average and blue and green areas are wetter (+PDSI) than  average. The smooth black curve shows decadal variations.  The PDSI  curve reveals widespread increasing African drought, especially in the  Sahel. Note also the wetter areas, especially in eastern North and South  America and northern Eurasia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/palmer_drought_severity_ind.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Palmer Drought Severity Index\" width=\"524\" height=\"554\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.16: Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zhang  et al. (2007), IPCC (2007), and Held and Soden (2006) conclude that  global warming due to human activities is increasing the severity of  drought in areas that already have drought and causing more rainfall in  areas that are already wet. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zhang  et al. (2007) considered three groups of global climate model  simulations and compared those simulations to the observed precipitation  between 70<sup>o<\/sup> north and 40<sup>o<\/sup> south as shown in  Figure 7.17 below. <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><\/p>\n<li> <strong>ANT<\/strong> denoted simulations included estimates of historical <strong>ANT<\/strong>hropogenic  (human) forcing only which included greenhouse gases and sulfate  aerosols.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>NAT4<\/strong> denoted simulations included just <strong>NAT<\/strong>ural  external forcings only.<\/li>\n<li> <strong>ALL<\/strong> denoted simulations include BOTH of the above \u2013  natural and human forcing.<\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ul>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/zhang-1.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Observed Precipitation vs. Simulations\" width=\"600\" height=\"524\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.17: Observed precipitation vs. various  simulations<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>This  clearly shows that the ALL simulations (a and d) do a much better job  of matching observed precipitation trends than either ANT (b and e) or  NAT (c and f) alone. In fact, the correlations: ALL = 0.83, ANT = 0.69  and NAT4 = 0.02. It is for this reason that Zhang et al. (2007) conclude  that changes in precipitation trends cannot be explained by natural  forcing only and it certainly parallels what the IPCC WGI and WGII  reports suggest. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/zhang-2.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Precipitation Trends Accuracy\" width=\"600\" height=\"362\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.18: Changes in observed vs. simulated  precipitation anomalies (<em>ibid<\/em>)<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.18 shows that the models do not predict the mid-latitude trends at  all. Regional precipitation pattern predictions are NOT a strong suit of  the models which modelers have stated. What this image does show  however, is that areas of green and yellow show where the model trends  match those of the observed trends and the models do a decent job of  forecasting the correct trends in most regions. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI):<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>The  U.S. CEI is the arithmetic average of the following five or six#  indicators of the percentage of the conterminous U.S. area: <\/span><\/p>\n<ol><span><\/p>\n<li>The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum  temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States  with maximum temperatures much above normal.<\/li>\n<li>The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum  temperatures much below normal and (b) percentage of the United States  with minimum temperatures much above normal.<\/li>\n<li>The sum of (a) percentage of the United States in severe  drought (equivalent to the lowest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI  and (b) percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus  (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI.<\/li>\n<li>Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with  a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from  extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation  events.<\/li>\n<li>The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much  greater than normal number of days with precipitation and (b) percentage  of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days  without precipitation.<\/li>\n<li>* The sum of squares of U.S. landfalling tropical storm and  hurricane wind velocities scaled to the mean of the first five  indicators.<\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ol>\n<ul><span><span># The sixth indicator is experimental and is included in the  experimental version of the CEI.<br \/>\n* The sixth indicator is only utilized when the period of interest  includes months with significant tropical activity. For practical  purposes, the CEI does not include the sixth indicator for the cold  season (Oct-Mar), winter (Dec-Feb) or spring (Mar-May). It also cannot  be calculated independent of the first five indicators.<\/span> (Gleason,  2009) <\/span><\/ul>\n<p><span>Figure  7.19 (ibid) shows that in the United States, extremes in climate are on  the increase since 1970. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/us_CEI.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Unites States Climate Extremes Index\" width=\"600\" height=\"439\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.19: United States Climate Extremes Index<\/span> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Are These Trends Unusual?:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>They  are unprecedented in the modern record! <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><\/p>\n<li>The  concentration of CO<sub>2<\/sub> has reached a record high relative to  the past 15 million years and has done so at an exceptionally fast rate.<\/li>\n<li>Most of the warming in the past 50 years is attributable to  human activities.<\/li>\n<li>CO<sub>2<\/sub> concentrations are known accurately for the past  650,000 years.  During that time, they varied between 180 ppm and 300  ppm.  As of March 2009 CO<sub>2<\/sub> is 385 ppm which took about 100  years to increase.  For comparison, it took over 5,000 years for an 80  ppm rise after the last ice age.<\/li>\n<li>Higher values than today have only occurred over many millions  of years.<\/li>\n<li>The last time CO<sub>2<\/sub> levels were this high, sea level  was 25 to 40 meters higher than present day.<\/li>\n<li>Although large climate changes have occurred in the past, there  is no evidence that they took place at a faster rate than the present  warming.<\/li>\n<li>If projections of a 5 <sup>o<\/sup>C warming in this century are  realized, Earth will have experienced the same amount of global warming  as it did at the end of the last glacial maximum.<\/li>\n<li><strong>There is no evidence that this rate is matched to a  comparable global temperature increase over the last 50 million years!<\/strong><\/li>\n<p><\/span><\/ul>\n<p><strong>Sea-Level Rise:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Sea-level  rise due to global warming is a serious threat, especially to coastal  communities in developing countries.  Sea level gradually rose in the  20th century and is currently rising at an increased rate, after a  period of little change between AD 0 and AD 1900.  Sea level is  predicted to rise at an even greater rate in this century, with 20th  century estimates of 1.7 mm per year (IPCC, 2007).  When climate warms,  ice on land melts and flows back into the oceans raising sea levels.   Also, when the oceans warm, the water expands (<em>thermal expansion<\/em>)  which raises sea levels.  Figure 7.20 (IPCC, 2007) shows the projected  sea-level rise through AD 2100. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/sea_level_rise_projections.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Level Rise\" width=\"523\" height=\"364\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.20: Projected sea-level rise through AD 2100<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.21 (Richardson et al., 2009) shows that IPCC 1990 projected sea level  increases were too conservative.  The latest observations show that sea  levels have risen faster than previous projections. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/seal_level_rise_copenhagen.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea Level Rise Newest Projection\" width=\"560\" height=\"507\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.21: Observed sea-level rise between 1970 and  2008 compared to IPCC projections<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.21a (<a href=\"http:\/\/sealevel.colorado.edu\/\">Colorado Center for  Astrodynamics Research<\/a>) shows the current sea level change data  using seasonally adjusted values from <a href=\"http:\/\/topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov\/\">TOPEX<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jason-1\">Jason<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/sealevel.colorado.edu\/current\/sl_ib_ns_global.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"Sea  Level Rise\" width=\"48%\" height=\"48%\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.21a: Current measured sea level change<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mazria  &amp; Kirshner (2005) in <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.architecture2030.org\/pdfs\/nation_under_siege_lr.pdf\">Nation  Under Siege: Sea Level Rise at Our Doorstep,<\/a><\/em> a coastal impact  study, show that beginning with just one meter of sea level rise, US  cities would be physically under siege, with calamitous and  destabilizing consequences.  One can <a href=\"http:\/\/www.architecture2030.org\/current_situation\/cutting_edge.html\">view  the impact of sea level rise of various US cities<\/a> at their  interactive Website. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Lemonick  (2010) writes in the article <em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.e360.yale.edu\/content\/feature.msp?id=2255\">The Secret  of Sea Level Rise: It Will Vary Greatly by Region<\/a><\/em>: <\/span><\/p>\n<ul><span><em>As  the world warms, sea levels could easily rise three to six feet this  century. But increases will vary widely by region, with prevailing  winds, powerful ocean currents, and even the gravitational pull of the  polar ice sheets determining whether some coastal areas will be  inundated while others stay dry.<\/em> <\/span><\/ul>\n<p><strong>Climate Change and Hurricanes:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>A  recent paper published by some of the top hurricane researchers in the  field (Knutson, et al. 2010) concludes: <\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span><em>&#8230;future projections based on theory and  high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse  warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones  to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2\u201311% by  2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in  the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6\u201334%. Balanced  against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project  substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and  increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km  of the storm centre.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><span>According  to a review of the most recent literature, Vechi, Swanson, and Soden  (2008) conclude that predicting the future of hurricane activity is at a  crossroads.  Vechi et al. compared the observed relation of the power  dissipation index (PDI) vs. sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the main  development region of Atlantic hurricanes.  (PDI is the cube of the  instantaneous tropical cyclone wind speed integrated over the life of  all storms in a given season; more intense and frequent basinwide  hurricane activity lead to higher PDI values.)  There are two very  different futures depending on whether absolute SST or relative SST  controls PDI. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.22 (ibid) shows PDI anomalies based on absolute SST. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/hurricane_pdi_absolute.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"PDI anomolies based on absolute SST\" width=\"600\" height=\"342\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.22: PDI anomalies based on absolute SST<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>By  2100, the lower end of the model projections shows a PDI comparable to  that of 2005, when four major hurricanes (sustained winds of over 100  knots) struck the continental United States, causing more than $100  billion in damage. The upper end of the projections exceeds 2005 levels  by more than a factor of two. Combined with rising sea levels, coastal  communities face a bleak future if absolute SST determines hurricane  activity and strength. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Figure  7.23 (ibid) shows PDI anomalies based on &#8220;relative SST&#8221; which is the   SST in the tropical Atlantic main development region relative to the  tropical mean SST. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/hurricane_pdi_relative.gif\" border=\"1\" alt=\"PDI anomolies based on relative SST\" width=\"600\" height=\"350\" \/><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.23: PDI anomalies based on relative SST<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>A  future where relative SST controls Atlantic hurricane activity is a  future similar to the recent past, with periods of higher and lower hurricane activity relative to present-day conditions  due to natural climate variability, but with little long-term trend.   Even in this scenario, rising sea levels will still allow hurricanes to  do more damage in the future than in present day. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Because  the correlation of PDI vs. absolute SST and PDI vs. relative SST are  equivalent, Vechi et al. conclude that more research is needed in this  area. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>IGBP Climate-Change Index:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span><a rel=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/climate_change_index.jpg\" href=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/climate_change_index.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: 1px solid black;\" src=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/images\/climate_change_index.jpg\" border=\"1\" alt=\"IGBP Climate Change Index\" width=\"331\" height=\"347\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<span>Figure 7.24: IGBP Climate-Change Index (Click for larger  image)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>The  IGBP Climate-Change Index brings together key indicators of global  change: atmospheric carbon dioxide, temperature, sea level and sea ice.  It will be released annually.  The index gives an annual snapshot of how  the planet&#8217;s complex systems &#8211; the ice, the oceans, the land surface  and the atmosphere &#8211; are responding to the changing climate.  The index  rises steadily from 1980 &#8211; the earliest date the index has been  calculated.  The change is unequivocal, it is global, and it is in one  direction &#8211; up! <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Each  parameter is normalized between -100 and +100. Zero is no annual  change. One hundred is the maximum-recorded annual change since 1980.  The normalised parameters are averaged. This gives the index for the  year. The value for each year is added to that of the previous year to  show the cumulative effect of annual change.  (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.igbp.net\/page.php?pid=504\">IGBP Climate-Change Index<\/a>,  2010) <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>With  all of this evidence for global warming, it is quite difficult to  understand why some people still claim that there is no global warming,  or more absurdly, that the climate is currently cooling. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>For  complete source information please see <a href=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/works_cited.html\">Works  Cited<\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><em><span>Mandia offers more climate  change information at the links below:<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www2.sunysuffolk.edu\/mandias\/global_warming\/\">Global  Warming: Man or Myth?<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/profmandia.wordpress.com\/\">Global Warming Blog<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/group.php?gid=336682515937\">&#8220;Global  Warming Fact of the Day&#8221; Facebook Group<\/a><\/span><\/em> <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007): Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":106,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-527198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527198","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/106"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=527198"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527198\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=527198"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=527198"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=527198"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}