{"id":527609,"date":"2010-04-14T11:00:39","date_gmt":"2010-04-14T15:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/economics\/2010\/04\/14\/economists-react-the-consumer-is-back\/"},"modified":"2010-04-14T11:00:39","modified_gmt":"2010-04-14T15:00:39","slug":"economists-react-%e2%80%98the-consumer-is-back%e2%80%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/527609","title":{"rendered":"Economists React: \u2018The Consumer Is Back\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Economists and others weigh in on the jump in U.S. retail sales<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

The continuing improvement in consumer spending<\/strong> no longer catches us off guard, having observed the improvement despite income stagnation. As the labor market continues to turn, growth in incomes should put a floor under consumption patterns and while consumption is not likely to grow as robustly as the decline might suggest and still remain below the previous peak and trend line, it is growing more than we originally anticipated. This is a fact that cannot be ignored. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak<\/em><\/p>\n

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The consumer is back<\/strong>. Overall, this was a positive report signaling that consumers are increasing expenditures amid positive stock market wealth effects and the early gains in labor income. The pick-up in consumer spending is crucial for creating positive momentum in the economy and making it a sustained recovery. –Michelle Meyer, Barclays Capital<\/em><\/p>\n

Every major category was up<\/strong> with the exception of gasoline (-0.4%) and electronics\/appliances (-1.3%) — the latter was up a ton the prior two months, so a reversal is not a huge surprise. Among the highlights – general merchandise sales rose 0.6%, apparel rose 2.3%, home improvement up 3.1%, restaurants rose 0.3%, furniture +1.5%. –Jay Feldman, Credit Suisse<\/em><\/p>\n

There were a number of surprises <\/strong> in the March results which tilted to the downside. In particular, the home electronics category posted a sharp drop on the heels of a couple of very strong months (the intro of the iPad may provide a boost for this category in April). Also, the general merchandise category was not nearly as strong in March as implied by the chain store results. On the other hand, apparel sales were quite a bit better than implied by company results. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley<\/em><\/p>\n

March results were certainly boosted <\/strong> by the effect of a very early Easter, and April will suffer accordingly, so the two months should be looked at as a package when the April figures are released next month. Still, there is no denying that consumer spending has perked up considerably in recent months. –Joshua Shapiro, MFR Inc.<\/em><\/p>\n

Consumers spent freely<\/strong> in March. Toyota’s incentive blitz spurred vehicle sales, while much better weather, and an earlier Easter than in 2009, helped weather-sensitive items like clothing and building materials. But there is clearly an underlying pick-up in consumer spending that goes far beyond the weather. –Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight<\/em><\/p>\n

Overall recent retail sales reports indicate <\/strong> the U.S. consumer may have emerged from the financial crisis with fewer scars than we had feared. While we are not revising our medium-term consumption forecasts at this time, we would certainly acknowledge that the latest data point to upside risks. –Zach Pandl, Nomura Global Economics<\/em><\/p>\n

With the upward revision<\/strong> to February and the gain in March, control retail sales are finally back above the previous peak hit in July 2008 — in nominal terms. A passing that underscores that the economy is recovering, but consumers to date are only proving they will buy when necessary, such as for holidays. –Steven Blitz, Majestic Research<\/em><\/p>\n

What we are seeing <\/strong> in these data is a clear rebound in activity following a quite severe recession. The new inference to be drawn is that the rebound appears to be faster than what was earlier on track, an upside surprise. –Stone & McCarthy<\/em><\/p>\n

Despite a slump in housing sales<\/strong> in the early part of 2010, retail construction material sales expanded 3.1%, the biggest increase in roughly three years.–Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott<\/em><\/p>\n

Additional meaningful and sustained growth<\/strong> in the U.S. labour market and an associated improvement in consumer credit will be necessary for this positive momentum in consumer spending to be sustained. –Millan L. B. Mulraine, TD Securities<\/em><\/p>\n

Compiled by Phil Izzo<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Economists and others weigh in on the jump in U.S. retail sales. The continuing improvement in consumer spending no longer catches us off guard, having observed the improvement despite income stagnation. As the labor market continues to turn, growth in incomes should put a floor under consumption patterns and while consumption is not likely to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":850,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-527609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/850"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=527609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527609\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=527609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=527609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=527609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}