{"id":527807,"date":"2010-04-14T09:08:57","date_gmt":"2010-04-14T13:08:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/business\/archive\/2010\/04\/the-euro-is-still-vulnerable\/38905\/"},"modified":"2010-04-14T09:08:57","modified_gmt":"2010-04-14T13:08:57","slug":"the-euro-is-still-vulnerable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/527807","title":{"rendered":"The Euro Is Still Vulnerable"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>In the short run, it now seems as if the euro has been saved.&nbsp; Greece has received a massive infusion from the EU, its bonds are selling once again, the birds are singing and all is right with the world.<\/p>\n<p>But <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ft.com\/cms\/s\/0\/372886dc-400d-11df-8d23-00144feabdc0.html\">Wolfgang M\u00fcnchau<\/a> makes a persuasive case that in the long run, a Greek default remains very likely.&nbsp; The structural adjustments required to get its budgets back into reasonable balance are simply massive (hence the demonstrations that keep turning into near-riots).&nbsp; That is going to require considerable austerity from the population, not to mention unemployment.<\/p>\n<p>It has been done in the past, but with one key difference:&nbsp; the countries involved were able to devalue their currencies.&nbsp; This lowered the burden of paying debt denominated in the local currency, and it also made exports more competitive, giving a boost to employment.<\/p>\n<p>Greece doesn&#8217;t have this option.&nbsp; It&#8217;s going to be stuck with a monetary policy that will be way too tight for the economic pain it is experiencing, exacerbating the difficulty of paying the debt, and the broader suffering of the citizenry.&nbsp; Not to mention the political pressure to exit the euro.<\/p>\n<p>Though it&#8217;s weathered this episode, I continue to think that the euro remains extremely vulnerable.&nbsp; The problems of running a monetary union between countries with vastly different business cycles, economic structures, and political resources, can apparently only be overcome with fairly massive transfers.&nbsp; How many times will France and Germany be willing to open up their wallets?<\/p>\n<p><br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n<br clear=\"both\" style=\"clear: both;\"\/><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:b94a81304466e189e891629a690f40b5:wdJuf1wX2xQeLciXL1TRo6A0j%2Bhy7AZBlX5YQtcI5x632SyXWs6Sii8osxwld7km%2FSRZHY1wT1Gm'><img border='0' title='Email this Article' alt='Email this Article' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/emailthis.png'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:c697301930775dc6b79d9ad31a2dd2af:9KeFnd1pj%2BtyMb9lSNusGwznzTOySVD8mFWtIS4QLRyyjQocj5BeUGdZhTuW9AE25ZtrTbwWUf6X'><img border='0' title='Add to digg' alt='Add to digg' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/digg.gif'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; color: maroon;' href='http:\/\/www.pheedcontent.com\/hostedMorselClick.php?hfmm=v3:ba888f96c13603c7f226e765eefc36cc:ML%2FP6%2F4bDCLJkxN0Iy%2FFTW0vBT4K%2FNOaKQ%2Bm7Hn5ek6i7Pc%2F5v5AAXiwCoMAw%2Bp3VCw%2F9VSRKH6P'><img border='0' title='Add to Reddit' alt='Add to Reddit' src='http:\/\/images.pheedo.com\/images\/mm\/reddit.png'\/><\/a><br \/>\n  <a style='font-size: 10px; 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Greece has received a massive infusion from the EU, its bonds are selling once again, the birds are singing and all is right with the world. But Wolfgang M\u00fcnchau makes a persuasive case that in the long run, a Greek default [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":80,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-527807","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527807","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/80"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=527807"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527807\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=527807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=527807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=527807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}