{"id":529216,"date":"2010-04-15T15:20:00","date_gmt":"2010-04-15T19:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/google-earnings-analysis-goog-q1-2010"},"modified":"2010-04-15T15:20:00","modified_gmt":"2010-04-15T19:20:00","slug":"google-goog-reports-solid-quarter-nothing-to-hyperventilate-about-goog","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/529216","title":{"rendered":"Google (GOOG) Reports Solid Quarter, Nothing To Hyperventilate About (GOOG)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"float_right\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/7a7a6c7979e21a49401e9800\/larry-page-white-coat.jpg\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Larry Page White Coat\" \/><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/investor.google.com\/earnings\/2010\/Q1_google_earnings.html\">Here&#8217;s the release&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:<\/strong> Solid quarter, in line with expectations.&nbsp; Nothing to hyperventilate about.&nbsp; As expected, the stock is trading off in the after-market.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Revenue was slightly above consensus, as was EPS.&nbsp; Both numbers were in line with whispers (and investors were hoping for more).<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Paid clicks and revenue per click both grew nicely, up 15% and 7%, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Cash flow was, once again, astonishing.&nbsp; The company generated $2.35 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, for an annualized rate of nearly $10 billion.&nbsp; Google now has a dizzying $27 billion of cash.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Overall, Google is still robustly healthy.&nbsp; The search business continues to recover from the recession, and it will probably drive solid growth for the balance of the year.&nbsp; The search business is maturing, however, and the company has yet to develop a second major growth engine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Unless\/until Google develops a second growth engine, we expect the stock&#8217;s multiple to gradually compress.&nbsp; The stock currently trades at about 17X enterprise value to free cash flow.&nbsp; 10X-15X is probably more reasonable for a company this size with a maturing core business and no major new growth driver in the hopper.&nbsp; <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">All that said, it&#8217;s hard to imagine a company in stronger financial shape than Google (save Apple and Microsoft).&nbsp; If the market continues to rise, Google&#8217;s stock probably will, too.<br \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Metrics vs Estimates:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q1 Net Revenue:<\/strong> $5.06 billion vs. $4.93 billion estimate<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP Operating Income:<\/strong> $2.78 billion vs $2.7 Billion estimate<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP EPS:<\/strong> $6.76 EPS vs. $6.56 estimate<\/li>\n<li><strong>Paid clicks<\/strong> up 15% y\/y<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cost per click<\/strong> up 7% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Reading the release in detail now&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"http:\/\/investor.google.com\/webcast.html\">conference call starts at 4:30 PM.<\/a>&nbsp; Please join Rory Maher for live notes and commentary.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>CONFERENCE CALL NOTES<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/investor.google.com\/webcast.html\">Conference call starts at 4:30 PM.<\/a>&nbsp; Click to listen.<\/p>\n<p>CFO <span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Patrick Pichette leading the call, as expected CEO Eric Schmidt is not on the call.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Already stepped up hiring (added 786 employees this quarter) and expect to continue hiring throughout the year (mostly engineering and sales).&nbsp; Also, expect more acquisitions this year.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Strength was also seen in display (especially Google content network).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Mobile growing &#8220;nicely.&#8221; <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Q-O-Q CPC declines were largely driven by FX.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">TAC 26% of total ad revenue.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">An ad exec is on to discuss new ad categories:<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Search &#8211; Will continue adding features like pictures and videos to search beyond just text given encouraging early results.&nbsp; CTR up as much as 30% to 40% when features like this are included.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Display &#8211; investing in platform (doubleclick), ad exchange, content n\/w, and YouTube.&nbsp; New Doubleclick version for publishers makes it easier for publishers to manage inventory.&nbsp; Doubling down on the ad exchange.&nbsp; Yields have been much higher for publishers versus ad networks (as much as 100% better in some cases).&nbsp; Real-time bidding has been especially strong.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Mobile &#8211; increasingly important.&nbsp; Rolled out new formats specifically for mobile.&nbsp; This includes &#8220;click-to-call&#8221; (automatically call the listing on your smartphone from the ad).&nbsp; Working well.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">On products:<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Diving right into location-based products (we think this is going to be a big focus for the company the next year or so).<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">&#8220;Near-me-now&#8221; &#8211; mobile product.&nbsp; turns your location essentially into a search query (show things of interest closest to you).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Android now powering 34 devices from 12 different OEMs.&nbsp; <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Chrome growing well too.&nbsp; New translation tool released this quarter that can translate any page into pretty much any language.&nbsp; Translating 60 million pages per day.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Q&amp;A:<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">On domestic vs international: Seeing better recovery in domestic than overseas, especially large advertisers. But comps are much easier for international.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">On Nexus One: Its is profitable, but won&#8217;t give specifics.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">CPCs: They were hit somewhat because they are selling more long-tail keywords.&nbsp; So, overall rev is up, but that may explain some of the softness in CPC.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Dodging the Apple search question.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">On Social Network Competition To Google Long-Term: Don&#8217;t see things as a zero sum game (read: they will do well, so will we).&nbsp; Right now not seeing any impact to results.<br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">On Nexus One Sales: Not disclosing the number, but &#8220;very happy&#8221; with uptake so far.&nbsp; Also, no comment on selling them in stores in addition to online.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">China: Rev #s were immaterial, no real information beyond that.&nbsp; A &#8220;tough decision.&#8221;&nbsp; Still opportunities there for ad sales team and search in Hong Kong.<br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">AdMob deal will likely go through, company is confident.&nbsp; If for some reason it doesn&#8217;t, the company still has Google AdSense for mobile.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"visibility: visible;\"><span style=\"visibility: visible;\">Stock down 5% in after-market, investors appear disappointed.<br \/><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Here are the key consensus estimates.&nbsp; A full &#8220;cheat sheet&#8221; is below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Consensus Estimates:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q1 Net Revenue:<\/strong> $4.93 Billion<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP Operating Income:<\/strong> $2.7 Billion<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP EPS:<\/strong> $6.56<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>PREVIEW<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Google (GOOG) reports Q1 2010 earnings after the close on Thursday.&nbsp; We&#8217;ll be analyzing the earnings live here starting at 4 PM EST.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Bottom Line:<\/strong> Anecdotal reports have suggested that the recovery in search advertising has continued in 2010, so analysts are expecting modest upside to consensus estimates.<\/p>\n<p>Google&#8217;s stock has drifted up for the past six weeks, but has lagged the market, in part due to the company&#8217;s decision to pull out of China.<\/p>\n<p>Google will likely need to <em>significantly<\/em> beat estimates for the stock to rise on the announcement.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Background:<\/strong> At $589, GOOG shares are trading at about 22-times 2010 estimated EPS.&nbsp; This is below historical highs of around 30-times, but still pretty pricey versus the overall tech group.&nbsp; As a result, the company will need to consistently beat expectations this year (and soon demonstrate it has plans for a new growth engine beyond search) to see material multiple expansion.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key Consensus Estimates:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q1 Net Revenue:<\/strong> $4.93 Billion<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP Operating Income:<\/strong> $2.7 Billion<\/li>\n<li><strong>Non-GAAP EPS:<\/strong> $6.56<\/li>\n<li>Besides the search outlook, we&#8217;re keeping our eyes out for commentary on mobile, YouTube, and cloud initiatives like Google Docs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here is an excellent snapshot from Citi analyst Mark Mahaney (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/henry-blodget-google-goog-earnings-cheat-sheet-q1-2010-2010-4\">click to enlarge<\/a>):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/henry-blodget-google-goog-earnings-cheat-sheet-q1-2010-2010-4\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bc6299b7f8b9a813af00800\/mahaney-cheat-sheet.png\" border=\"0\" alt=\"mahaney cheat sheet\" width=\"621\" height=\"272\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/google-earnings-analysis-goog-q1-2010#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/google-earnings-preview-strong-quarter-likely-priced-into-stock-2010-4\">GOOGLE EARNINGS PREVIEW: Yes, They&#8217;ll Beat Estimates, But That&#8217;s Already Priced Into Stock<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/henry-blodget-google-goog-earnings-cheat-sheet-q1-2010-2010-4\">Google (GOOG) Earnings Cheat Sheet: Q1 2010<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/qkCmq9_IKdM\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;Here&#8217;s the release&#8230; Bottom Line: Solid quarter, in line with expectations.&nbsp; Nothing to hyperventilate about.&nbsp; As expected, the stock is trading off in the after-market. Revenue was slightly above consensus, as was EPS.&nbsp; Both numbers were in line with whispers (and investors were hoping for more). Paid clicks and revenue per click both grew nicely, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6777,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-529216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6777"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=529216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/529216\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=529216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=529216"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=529216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}