{"id":533536,"date":"2010-04-19T06:00:45","date_gmt":"2010-04-19T10:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/washingtonindependent.com\/?p=82626"},"modified":"2010-04-19T06:00:45","modified_gmt":"2010-04-19T10:00:45","slug":"making-sense-of-gates%e2%80%99-iran-memo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/533536","title":{"rendered":"Making Sense of Gates\u2019 Iran Memo"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_82627\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\" style=\"width: 490px\"><a href=\"http:\/\/washingtonindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/gates.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-82627\" title=\"Secretary of Defense Robert Gates\" src=\"http:\/\/washingtonindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/04\/gates-480x333.jpg\" alt=\"Secretary of Defense Robert Gates\" width=\"480\" height=\"333\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (EPA\/ZUMApress.com)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The New York Times <a id=\"njj4\" title=\"reported\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/04\/18\/world\/middleeast\/18iran.html?pagewanted=1&amp;hp\">reported<\/a> on a memo written by Secretary  of Defense Robert Gates in January about a paucity of U.S. policy  options toward Iran if it continued with illicit uranium enrichment but  stopped short of possessing a bomb. It&#8217;s a real problem &#8212; the  proliferation equivalent of a bank robber pointing to the bulge in his  pocket. (Does he have a gun or not?) By not declaring itself a nuclear  power, something Obama administration officials say won&#8217;t happen  for at least a year, Iran won&#8217;t have opted out of the Nuclear  Nonproliferation Treaty, but it will have increased its deterrent force  by keeping its adversaries guessing about its actual nuclear capability.  Gates&#8217; memo asked if the U.S. was ready for that situation.<\/p>\n<p><div id=\"attachment_2848\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\" style=\"width: 140px\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2848\" title=\"nationalsecurity\" src=\"http:\/\/washingtonindependent.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/08\/nationalsecurity.jpg\" alt=\"Image by: Matt Mahurin\" width=\"130\" height=\"130\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Image by: Matt Mahurin<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"floatButtons\">\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px;\"><script src=\"http:\/\/digg.com\/tools\/diggthis.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><\/div>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-bottom: 10px;\"><script type=\"text\/javascript\"\n\tsrc=\"http:\/\/d.yimg.com\/ds\/badge2.js\"\n\tbadgetype=\"square\">\n\t<?php the_permalink(); ?><\/script><\/div>\n<div style=\"float: left; margin-right: 10px;\">\n\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\ntweetmeme_source = \"TWI_news\";\ntweetmeme_service = \"bit.ly\";\n<\/script> <script src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"float: left;\"><a name=\"fb_share\" type=\"box_count\" href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php\">Share<\/a><script src=\"http:\/\/static.ak.fbcdn.net\/connect.php\/js\/FB.Share\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p> Whether  it was or wasn&#8217;t then, it&#8217;s pretty easy to see administration policy <em>since<\/em> then inclining to answer Gates&#8217; question. It&#8217;s looking more and more  like President Obama &#8212; who was so roundly vilified for deigning to  propose, let alone pursue, a year&#8217;s worth of diplomatic outreach to the  Iranian leadership &#8212; will be the one who shepherds an economic  sanctions package on the Iranian regime&#8217;s key organs through the United  Nations Security Council. After winning China&#8217;s acquiescence; spending  almost a year and a half rebuilding relations with Russia; and  leveraging new and less patient leadership at the International Atomic  Energy Agency, the administration has pieces in position to unite the  international community against Iran&#8217;s uranium enrichment. Even Obama&#8217;s  chief Iran critic, his 2008 presidential rival Sen. John McCain  (R-Ariz.), had to <a id=\"bz:n\" title=\"concede\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2010\/04\/15\/world\/middleeast\/15nuke.html\">concede<\/a> Wednesday, &#8220;I never thought a  policy of engagement with Iran\u2019s rulers would succeed, but I understand  why the president pursued it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Beyond Iran, however, is  the general problem of a hostile power nearing nuclear breakout capacity, something Gates&#8217; memo correctly  identifies as yielding unclear sanction under the NPT. Maybe that&#8217;s why  next month, the signatories of the NPT will gather in New York to  strengthen its provisions. And according to administration officials,  one of the areas the U.S. wants to focus on is creating new  rules for when signatories face greater penalties for drifting into  noncompliance, perhaps through increased verification authorities and  responsibilities for the IAEA &#8212; something last week&#8217;s nuclear security  summit in Washington didn&#8217;t really substantively address &#8212; allowing the  international community to have earlier warning into prospective  breakout capabilities. The penalties that would come into force in such a  case remain to be proposed, debated and accepted or rejected, of course.  But the whole discussion speaks to the lacunae that Gates frets over in  his memo.<\/p>\n<p>What should be clear is that the memo doesn&#8217;t  propose going to war, nor does it make war more likely. Administration  officials have never ruled out any option on Iran. But they have leaned,  at every step, on measures that attract wide international support and  deny that support to Iran &#8212; from diplomatic outreach; to  intensifying diplomacy when word of the Qom reactor leaked; to the  proposal for enriching Iran&#8217;s uranium to a bomb-incapable state in a  third country; to, as the result of the first three, economic sanctions.  The administration shows no sign of changing that fundamental  strategy.<\/p>\n<p>Seen from that  perspective, the prospect of military action, ahead of a push to  sanction Iran at the U.N., would place that strategy at risk. The  coalition Obama has stitched together might fray if other countries view  the sanctions maneuver as a pretext for military strikes. Hence Gates&#8217;  own clarifying\u00a0<a id=\"elxu\" title=\"statement\" href=\"http:\/\/www.defense.gov\/releases\/release.aspx?releaseid=13463\">statement<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The  New York Times sources who revealed my January memo to the National  Security Advisor mischaracterized its purpose and content. With the  Administration&#8217;s pivot to a pressure track on Iran earlier this year,  the memo identified next steps in our defense planning process where  further interagency discussion and policy decisions would be needed in  the months and weeks ahead. The memo was not intended as a &#8220;wake up  call&#8221; or received as such by the President&#8217;s national security team.  Rather, it presented a number of questions and proposals intended to  contribute to an orderly and timely decision making process. There  should be no confusion by our allies and adversaries that the United  States is properly and energetically focused on this question and  prepared to act across a broad range of contingencies in support of our  interests.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (EPA\/ZUMApress.com) The New York Times reported on a memo written by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in January about a paucity of U.S. policy options toward Iran if it continued with illicit uranium enrichment but stopped short of possessing a bomb. It&#8217;s a real problem &#8212; the proliferation equivalent of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4314,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-533536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4314"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=533536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533536\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=533536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=533536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=533536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}