\nwhen climate change is already making it harder for people in Bangladesh
\n to find enough drinking water, it seems callous to fret about what
\nmight happen to premium wines. But there is much more to the question of
\n wine and climate change than the character of pinot noir. Because wine
\ngrapes are extraordinarily sensitive to temperature, the industry
\namounts to an early-warning system for problems that all food crops—and
\nall industries—will confront as global warming intensifies. In vino
\nveritas, the Romans said: In wine there is truth. The
\ntruth now is that the earth’s climate is changing much faster than the
\nwine business, and virtually every other business on earth, is preparing
\n for.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
All crops need favorable climates, but few are as vulnerable to
\ntemperature and other extremes as wine grapes. “There is a fifteenfold
\ndifference in the price of cabernet sauvignon grapes that are grown in
\nNapa Valley and cabernet sauvignon grapes grown in Fresno” in
\nCalifornia’s hot Central Valley, says Kim Cahill, a consultant to the
\nNapa Valley Vintners’ Association. “Cab grapes grown in Napa sold [in
\n2006] for $4,100 a ton. In Fresno the price was $260 a ton. The
\ndifference in average temperature between Napa and Fresno was 5 degrees
\nFahrenheit.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Numbers like that help explain why climate change is poised to <\/p>\n If current trends continue, the “premium wine grape production area <\/p>\n In theory, winemakers can defuse the threat by simply shifting <\/p>\n A handful of climate-savvy winemakers such as Graves are trying to <\/p>\n The irony is, the wine business is better situated than most to adapt <\/p>\n <\/p>\n The exception:<\/strong> Alois Lageder, a man whose family has <\/p>\n As it happens, Alto Adige is the location of one of the most dramatic <\/p>\n Lageder heard about global warming in the early 1990s and felt <\/p>\n The record summer <\/p>\n A 2 percent increase in alcohol may sound like a tiny difference, but <\/p>\n There are tricks grape growers and winemakers can use to lower <\/p>\n But laws and cultural traditions currently stand in the way of such <\/p>\n The greatest resistance, however, may come from the industry itself. <\/p>\n <\/p>\n If the wine industry<\/strong> does not adapt to climate <\/p>\n The answer seems to be very few. Even in the Britain, where the <\/p>\n “Most of us are not very good at recognizing our risks until we are Related Links:<\/strong><\/p>\n EPA scientist warns Atlantic seaboard will be swallowed by rising seas<\/a><\/p>\n Interview with ‘Growing Green’ water steward Mike Benziger<\/a><\/p>\n
\nclobber the global wine industry, a multibillion-dollar business whose
\ndecline would also damage the much larger industries of food,
\nrestaurants, and tourism. Every business
\non earth will feel the effects of global warming<\/a>, but only the ski
\nindustry—which appears doomed in its current form—is more visibly
\ntargeted by the hot, erratic weather that lies in store over the next 50
\n years. In France, the rise in temperatures may render the Champagne
\nregion too hot to produce fine champagne. The same is true for the
\nlegendary reds of Châteauneuf du Pape, where the stony white soil’s
\nability to retain heat, once considered a virtue, may now become a
\ncurse. The world’s other major wine-producing regions—California, Italy,
\n Spain, Australia—are also at risk.<\/p>\n
\n[in the United States] … could decline by up to 81 percent by the late
\n21st century,” a team of scientists wrote in a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of
\nSciences<\/a> in 2006. The culprit was not so much the rise in average temperatures but an increased frequency of extremely hot days, defined
\nas above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit). If no adaptation
\nmeasures were taken, these increased heat spikes would “eliminate wine
\ngrape production in many areas of the United States,” the scientists
\nwrote.<\/p>\n
\nproduction to more congenial locations. Indeed, champagne grapes have
\nalready been planted in England and some respectable vintages harvested.
\n But there are limits to this strategy. After all, temperature is not
\nthe sole determinant of a wine’s taste. What the French call terroir—a
\n term that refers to the soil of a given region but also includes the
\ncultural knowledge of the people who grow and process grapes—is crucial.
\n “Wine is tied to place more than any other form of agriculture, in the
\nsense that the names of the place are on the bottle,” says David Graves,
\n the co-founder of the Saintsbury wine company in the Napa Valley. “If
\ntraditional sugar-beet growing regions in eastern Colorado had to move
\nnorth, nobody would care. But if wine grapes can’t grow in the Napa
\nValley anymore—which is an extreme statement, but let’s say so for the
\nsake of argument—suddenly you have a global warming poster child right
\nup there with the polar bears.”<\/p>\n
\nrouse their colleagues to action before it is too late, but to little
\navail. Indeed, some winemakers are actually rejoicing in the higher
\ntemperatures of recent years. “Some of the most expensive wines in Spain
\n come from the Rioja Alta and Rioja Alavesa regions,” Pancho Campo, the
\nfounder and president of the Wine Academy of Spain, says. “They are
\ngetting almost perfect ripeness every year now for Tempranillo. This
\nmakes the winemakers say, ‘Who cares about climate change? We are
\ngetting perfect vintages.’ The same thing has happened in Bordeaux. It
\nis very difficult to tell someone, ‘This is only going to be the case
\nfor another few years.’”<\/p>\n
\n to global warming. Many of the people in the industry followed in their
\n parents’ footsteps and hope to pass the business on to their kids and
\ngrandkids someday. This should lead them to think farther
\nahead than the average corporation, with its obsessive focus on this
\nquarter’s financial results<\/a>. But I found little evidence this is
\nhappening.<\/p>\n
\n made wine in Alto Adige, the northernmost province in Italy, since
\n1855. The setting, at the foot of the Alps, is majestic. Looming over
\nthe vines are massive outcroppings of black and gray granite
\ninterspersed with flower-strewn meadows and wooded hills that inevitably
\n call to mind The
\nSound of Music<\/a>. Locals admire Lageder for having led Alto
\nAdige’s evolution from producing jug wine to boasting some of the best
\nwhites in Italy. In October 2005, Lageder hosted the world’s first conference
\n on the future of wine under climate change<\/a>. “We must recognize that
\n climate change is not a problem of the future,” Lageder told his
\ncolleagues. “It is here today and we must adapt now.”<\/p>\n
\n expressions of modern global warming: the discovery of the so-called Iceman<\/a>—the
\n frozen remains of a herder who lived in the region 5,300 years ago. The
\n corpse was found in 1991 in a mountain gully, almost perfectly
\npreserved-even the skin was intact—because it had lain beneath mounds of
\n snow and ice since shortly after his death (a murder, forensic
\ninvestigators later concluded from studying the trajectory of an
\narrowhead lodged in his left shoulder). He would not have been found
\nwere it not for global warming, says Hans Glauber, the director of the
\nAlto Adige Ecological Institute: “Temperatures have been rising in the
\nAlps about twice as fast as in the rest of the world,” he notes.<\/p>\n
\ncompelled to take action. It wasn’t easy—“I had incredible fights with
\nmy architect about wanting good insulation,” he says—but by 1996 he had
\ninstalled the first completely privately financed solar energy system in
\n Italy. He added a geothermal energy system as well. Care was taken to
\nintegrate these cutting-edge technologies into the existing site; during
\n a tour, I emerged from a dark fermentation cellar with its own wind
\nturbine into the bright sunlight of a gorgeous courtyard dating to the
\n15th century. Going green did make the renovation cost 30 percent more,
\nLageder says, “but that just means there is a slightly longer
\namortization period. In fact, we made up the cost difference through
\nincreased revenue, because when people heard about what we were doing,
\nthey came to see it and they ended up buying our wines.”<\/p>\n
\n heat<\/a> that struck Italy and the rest of Europe in 2003, killing tens
\n of thousands, made Lageder even more alarmed. “When I was a kid, the
\nharvest was always after November 1, which was a cardinal date,” he told
\n me. “Nowadays, we start between the 5th and 10th of September and
\nfinish in October.” Excess heat raises the sugar level of grapes to
\npotentially ruinous levels. Too much sugar can result in wine that is
\nunbalanced and too alcoholic—wine known as “cooked” or “jammy.” Higher
\ntemperatures may also increase the risk of pests and parasites, because
\nfewer will die off during the winter. White wines, whose skins are less
\ntolerant of heat, face particular difficulties as global warming
\nintensifies. “In 2003, we ended up with wines that had between 14 and 16
\n percent alcohol,” Lageder recalled, “whereas normally they are between
\n12 and 14 percent. The character of our wine was changing.”<\/p>\n
\n the effect on a wine’s character and potency is considerable. “In
\nCalifornia, your style of wine is bigger, with alcohol levels of 14 and
\n15, even 16 percent,” Lageder continued. “I like some of those wines a
\nlot. But the alcohol level is so high that you have one glass and
\nthen”—he slashed his hand across his throat—“you’re done; any more and
\nyou will be drunk. In Europe, we prefer to drink wine throughout the
\nevening, so we favor wines with less alcohol. Very hot weather makes
\nthat harder to achieve.”<\/p>\n
\nalcohol levels. The leaves surrounding the grapes can be allowed to grow
\n bushier, providing more shade. Vines can be replaced with different
\nclones or rootstocks. Growing grapes at higher altitudes, where the air
\nis cooler, is another option. So is changing the type of grapes being
\ngrown.<\/p>\n
\nadaptations. So-called AOC laws (Appellation d’Origine Côntrollée)
\n govern wine-grape production throughout France, and in parts of Italy,
\nand Spain as well. As temperatures rise further, these AOC laws and
\nkindred regulations are certain to face increased challenge. “I was just
\n in Burgundy,” Pancho Campo told me in March 2008, “and producers there
\nare very concerned, because they know that chardonnay and pinot noir are
\n cool-weather wines, and climate change is bringing totally the
\ncontrary. Some of the producers were even considering starting to study
\nSyrah and other varieties. At the moment, they are not allowed to plant
\nother grapes, but these are questions people are asking.”<\/p>\n
\n“Some of my colleagues may admire my views on this subject, but few have
\n done much,” says Lageder. “People are trying to push the problem away,
\nsaying, ‘Let’s do our job today and wait and see in the future if
\nclimate change becomes a real problem.’ But by then it will be too late
\nto save ourselves.”<\/p>\n
\nchange, life will go on—with less conviviality and pleasure, perhaps,
\nbut it will go on. Fine wine will still be produced, most likely by
\nearly adapters such as Lageder, but there will be less of it. By the law
\n of supply and demand, that suggests the best wines of tomorrow will
\ncost even more than the ridiculous amounts they fetch today. White wine
\nmay well disappear from some regions. Climate-sensitive reds such as
\npinot noir are also in trouble. It’s not too late for winemakers to save
\n themselves through adaptation. But it’s disconcerting to see so much
\ndawdling in an industry with so much incentive to act. If winemakers
\naren’t motivated to adapt to climate change, what businesses will be?<\/p>\n
\ngovernment is vigorously championing adaptation, the private sector lags
\n in understanding the adaptation imperative, much less implementing it.
\n“I bet if I rang up a hundred small businesses in the U.K. and mentioned
\nadaptation, 90 of them wouldn’t know what I was talking about,” says
\nGareth Williams, who works with the organization Business in the
\nCommunity, helping firms in northeast England prepare for the storms and
\n other extreme weather events that scientists project for the region.
\n“When I started this job, I gave a presentation to heads of businesses,”
\n said Williams, who spent most of his career in the private sector. “I
\npresented the case for adaptation, and in the question-and-answer
\nperiod, one executive said, ‘We’re doing quite a lot on adaptation
\nalready.’ I said, ‘Oh, what’s that?’ He said, ‘We’re recycling, and
\nwe’re looking at improving our energy efficiency.’ I thought to myself,
\n‘Oh, my, he really didn’t get it at all. This is going to be a
\nstruggle.’”<\/p>\n
\nhit by them,” explains Chris West, the director of the U.K. government’s
\nClimate Impact Program. “People who run companies are no different.”
\nBefore joining UKCIP in 1999, West had spent most of his career working
\nto protect endangered species. Now, the species he is trying to save is
\nhis own, and the insights of a zoologist turn out to be quite useful.
\nAdapting to changing circumstances is, after all, the essence of
\nevolution—and of success in the modern economic marketplace. West is
\nfond of quoting Darwin: “It is not the strongest of the species that
\nsurvives … nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is
\n the most adaptable to change.”<\/p>\n