But what do investors think? <\/p>\n
Given recent events, the phrase “wisdom of the market” may seem like an oxymoron. But traders in the prediction markets like those at Intrade<\/a>, where investors can essentially bet on a candidate’s chances of emerging victorious, they have a decent track record of picking the winners.<\/p>\n And right now, traders are bullish<\/a> on Lincoln’s chances of winning the primary. She’s currently trading at 80, which means investors give her about an 80% chance of being the Democratic nominee:<\/p>\n INTRADE: Arkansas – Democratic Senate Primary But what about November? Not so much. The market is showing little confidence in Lincoln’s prospects. Right now Lincoln is trading at 11, which means traders think she has an 11% chance of winning the general election<\/a>:<\/p>\n INTRADE: Arkansas (Incumbent: Blanche Lincoln – D) On the other side, the trend lines for the Arkansas GOP are all up and up: Intrade has Republicans with a 90% chance of winning the U.S. Senate seat.<\/p>\n
\nBlanche Lincoln to win the Democratic nomination for 2010 Arkansas Senate Race <\/b><\/p>\n
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\n Democratic Party candidate to win<\/b>
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![\"Price](\"http:\/\/data.intrade.com\/graphing\/closingChart.gif?contractId=664232&intradeChart=true&transBackground=true&transBackground=true\" "\\"Price")
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