{"id":57409,"date":"2009-12-01T11:06:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-01T16:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/biggest-market-call-of-the-decade-2009-12"},"modified":"2009-12-01T11:06:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-01T16:06:00","slug":"the-biggest-market-call-of-the-decade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/57409","title":{"rendered":"The Biggest Market Call of the Decade"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>(This guest post originally appeared at the <a href=\"http:\/\/thereformedbroker.com\/2009\/12\/01\/the-biggest-market-call-of-the-decade\/\">author&#8217;s blog<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yes, I&rsquo;m about to give props to Goldman.&nbsp; Deal with it.<\/p>\n<p>The single biggest, most profitable market call of the last decade was made in 2001 by economist <strong>Jim O&rsquo;Neill<\/strong>, then working at none other than <strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong>.&nbsp; The call was made in <em>Global Economics Paper #66<\/em> aka &ldquo;<strong>Building Better Global Economic BRICs<\/strong>&rdquo; and it marked the original usage of the term &ldquo;<em>BRIC<\/em>&rdquo; to describe Brazil, Russia, India and China as a group.<\/p>\n<p>The coining of the term is secondary to the trillions in wealth and world-changing shifts that this paper predicted.&nbsp; Had you heeded O&rsquo;Neill&rsquo;s work and gotten invested in the stock markets of those four nations, you&rsquo;d have made more money this past decade than by doing virtually anything else conceivable.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_7281\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 402px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/thereformedbroker.files.wordpress.com\/2009\/11\/bric.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b153fba000000000043e417\" border=\"0\" alt=\"trb_BRIC1\" \/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">from Goldman Sachs Global Economics Research<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>O&rsquo;Neill and his fellow researchers concluded way ahead of everyone else that:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>Over the next 50 years, Brazil, Russia, India and China&mdash;the BRICs economies &mdash; could become a much larger force in the world economy. Using the latest demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity growth, we map out GDP growth, income per capita and currency movements in the BRICs economies until 2050.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>The results are startling.&nbsp; If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms.&nbsp; By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6.&nbsp; Currently they are worth less than 15%. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This call was bigger and more prescient than any I can think of this decade.&nbsp; It literally encompasses every major theme, from currencies to commodities, from the cost of technology components to the price of a barrel of oil, from the exchange rate of the dollar to the growth rate of the global middle class.<\/p>\n<p>As far as percentage gains, in some instances, we&rsquo;re talking about <em>thousands<\/em> of percentage points in whole indices!<\/p>\n<p>Congratulations to Goldman Sachs for nailing this story back in 2001 and to anyone who got in and rode the BRIC trade this decade.&nbsp; From where these markets stand today, even after the Credit Crisis, O&rsquo;Neill&rsquo;s original paper is starting to look like a once-in-a-lifetime call.<\/p>\n<p>Here&rsquo;s how right GS was, a look at each of&nbsp;the BRIC markets since 2001:<\/p>\n<p><span>&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_7293\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 449px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/thereformedbroker.files.wordpress.com\/2009\/12\/bric-since-2001-part-1.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b153fcc00000000002f8eb2\" border=\"0\" alt=\"trb_BRIC2\" \/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">India and China markets since 2001<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"attachment_7294\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" style=\"width: 449px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/thereformedbroker.files.wordpress.com\/2009\/12\/bric-since-2001-part-2.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b153fd60000000000498430\" border=\"0\" alt=\"trb_BRIC3\" \/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Russia and Brazil since 2001<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Unfortunately, I have been unable to locate the actual Paper #66, but here&rsquo;s a link to Goldman Sachs&rsquo; BRIC Research Archives, which seems to go back to 2003:<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www2.goldmansachs.com\/ideas\/brics\/index.html\" ><strong>http:\/\/www2.goldmansachs.com\/ideas\/brics\/index.html<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Read Also:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"http:\/\/thereformedbroker.com\/2009\/07\/21\/emerging-idol-auditions-for-bric-without-the-r\/\" >Emerging Idol: Auditions for BRIC without the &ldquo;R&rdquo; (TRB)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/biggest-market-call-of-the-decade-2009-12#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/goldman-loves-these-50-stocks-with-bric-exposure-2009-10\">Goldman Loves These 50 Stocks With Heavy BRIC Exposure<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/emerging-markets-pace-a-strong-month-for-hedge-funds-2009-10\">A Monster Month For Emerging Market Hedge Funds<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/marc-mobius-here-comes-another-40-surge-for-the-brics-2009-11\">Marc Mobius: Here Comes Another 40% Surge For The BRICs<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/D5I9SEOu9Ug\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This guest post originally appeared at the author&#8217;s blog) Yes, I&rsquo;m about to give props to Goldman.&nbsp; Deal with it. The single biggest, most profitable market call of the last decade was made in 2001 by economist Jim O&rsquo;Neill, then working at none other than Goldman Sachs.&nbsp; The call was made in Global Economics Paper [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":89,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-57409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/89"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57409\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}