{"id":576054,"date":"2010-05-23T17:16:30","date_gmt":"2010-05-23T21:16:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/?p=25668"},"modified":"2010-05-23T17:16:30","modified_gmt":"2010-05-23T21:16:30","slug":"the-non-hype-about-climate-change-and-malaria-a-look-at-two-new-studies-and-how-the-media-has-misled-both-the-public-and-the-sloppy-authors-of-the-nature-study","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/576054","title":{"rendered":"The non-hype about climate change (and malaria) &#8211; A look at two new studies and how the media has misled both the public and the sloppy authors of the Nature study"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There are many reasons why the public doesn&#8217;t understand how dire the climate situation is.\u00a0 We have a well-funded disinformation campaign, generally poor messaging by scientists, and many progressives and environmentalists who have been persuaded to downplay talk of global warming risks.<\/p>\n<p>And we have <a href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2009\/12\/22\/and-the-2009-citizen-kane-award-for-non-excellence-in-climate-journalism-goes-to\/\">dreadful coverage by the status quo media<\/a>.\u00a0 The media fails in countless ways, but <strong>one of its most insidious failings is to play up the occasional study that seems to suggest the threat of human caused global warming has been overblown<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Much as the media has been providing a <a href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2010\/02\/09\/new-york-times-elisabeth-rosenthal-unbalanced-climate-coverage-ipcc-pachauri\/\">false balance<\/a> in its <a href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2010\/03\/29\/climate-scientists-meteorologists-bastardi-coleman-watts-new-york-times-leslie-kaufman-false-balance\/\">choice of experts<\/a> to quote, creating the misimpression that there is a much greater debate among climate scientists on key issues than there really is, <em>the media has been providing a false balance in its choice of articles to write about<\/em> &#8212; and then, typically, utterly misframing the results.\u00a0 Such is the case with the big malaria study in <em>Nature<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>In a AAAS  presentation this year, William R. Freudenburg of UC Santa   Barbara  discussed his research on \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/aaas.confex.com\/aaas\/2010\/webprogram\/Paper1639.html\">the    Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge<\/a>\u201d:<strong> <\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>New  scientific findings are found to be more   than twenty times  as likely to  indicate that global climate disruption   is \u201cworse than  previously  expected,\u201d rather than \u201cnot as bad as   previously expected.\u201d <\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But you&#8217;d never know that from the coverage by the status quo media.\u00a0 That&#8217;s because most of the media have been suckered by the antiscience crowd (and lame messaging by scientists and others) into believing that the threat of global warming has been oversold when, in fact, the reverse is true.\u00a0 So they will jump at any chance to push the &#8220;contrarian&#8221; message that some new scientific study confirms what they believe &#8212; even if they have to twist that scientific study and the scientific literature completely backwards to make their case (see, for instance, &#8220;<a title=\"Permanent Link to Scientists withdraw low-ball  estimate of sea level rise \u2014 media are confused and anti-science crowd  pounces\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2010\/02\/22\/sea-level-rise-global-warming\/\">Scientists withdraw low-ball estimate of sea level rise \u2014 media  are confused and anti-science crowd pounces<\/a>&#8220;).<\/p>\n<p>So it is with two new studies on the malaria\/climate link &#8212; I say &#8216;two&#8217; because the media has completely ignored one that doesn&#8217;t fit into their thesis, and they have spun up the second to make a case that doesn&#8217;t exist.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"more-25668\"><\/span>THE NON-HYPE ABOUT CLIMATE AND MALARIA<\/p>\n<p>The overwhelming majority of those who report on the threat of human-caused global warming spend very little of their time on malaria.\u00a0 For instance, the word never appears in my entire book <em>Hell and High Water<\/em> and it appears exactly once in <em>Straight Up<\/em> as an aside (in a satirical essay).\u00a0 I&#8217;ve published more than 2 million words and nearly 5000 posts on Climate Progress and you can search &#8220;malaria&#8221; and find very little on it.<\/p>\n<p>Why?\u00a0 Many obvious reasons &#8212; it&#8217;s a second order effect from global warming, and we&#8217;ve long had intense global effort to fight the disease.<\/p>\n<p>How about the much-maligned IPCC report, <em>Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaption and Vulnerability? <\/em>Let&#8217;s start with, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/publications_and_data\/ar4\/wg2\/en\/ch8s8-4-1-2.html\">8.4.1.2 Malaria, dengue and other infectious diseases<\/a>,&#8221; a section with caveats that would make Judith Curry proud:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Studies published since the TAR support previous projections that  climate change could alter the incidence and geographical range of  malaria. <em>The magnitude of the projected effect may be smaller than that  reported in the TAR<\/em>, partly because of advances in categorising risk.  There is greater confidence in projected changes in the geographical  range of vectors than in changes in disease incidence because of  uncertainties about trends in factors other than climate that influence  human cases and deaths, including the status of the public-health  infrastructure.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/publications_and_data\/ar4\/wg2\/en\/ch8s8-4-1-2.html#table-8-2\">Table  8.2<\/a> summarises studies that project the impact of climate change on  the incidence and geographical range of malaria, dengue fever and other  infectious diseases. <em>Models with incomplete parameterisation of  biological relationships between temperature, vector and parasite often  over-emphasise relative changes in risk, even when the absolute risk is  small. Several modelling studies used the SRES climate scenarios, a few  applied population scenarios, and none incorporated economic scenarios.  Few studies incorporate adequate assumptions about adaptive capacity<\/em>.  The main approaches used are inclusion of current \u2018control capacity\u2018 in  the observed climate\u2013health function (Rogers and Randolph, 2000; Hales  et al., 2002) and categorisation of the model output by adaptive  capacity, thereby separating the effects of climate change from the  effects of improvements in public health (van Lieshout et al., 2004).<\/p>\n<p><em>Malaria  is a complex disease to model and all published models have limited  parameterisation of some of the key factors that influence the  geographical range and intensity of malaria transmission. <\/em>Given this  limitation, models project that, particularly in Africa, <em>climate change  will be associated with geographical expansions of the areas suitable  for stable <span>Plasmodium falciparum<\/span> malaria in some  regions and with contractions in other regions<\/em> (Tanser et al., 2003;  Thomas et al., 2004; van Lieshout et al., 2004; Ebi et al., 2005).  Projections also suggest that some regions will experience a longer  season of transmission. This may be as important as geographical  expansion for the attributable disease burden. Although an increase in  months per year of transmission does not directly translate into an  increase in malaria burden (Reiter et al., 2004), it would have  important implications for vector control.<\/p>\n<p><em>Few models project the impact of climate change on malaria outside  Africa.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I know, the alarmism is unbearable.<\/p>\n<p>Seriously, not have they reduced the magnitude of the projected effect from the <em>Third Assessment<\/em>, but then there is Table 8.2 itself, the &#8220;main results&#8221; for &#8220;Malaria, global and regional&#8221;:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Estimates of the additional population at risk for &gt;1 month  transmission range from &gt;220 million (A1FI) to &gt;400 million (A2)  when climate and population growth are included. <em>The global estimates  are severely reduced if transmission risk for more than 3 consecutive  months per year is considered, <strong>with a net reduction in the global  population at risk under the A2 and B1 scenarios<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The decrease comes about because of increased drought.\u00a0 On page\u00a0 400, in the section on &#8220;8.2.3.1 Drought and infectious disease,&#8221; the IPCC finds:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>I<strong>n the long term, the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria decreases because the mosquito vector lacks the necessary humidity and water for breeding&#8230;.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Malaria has decreased in association with long-term decreases in annual rainfall in Senegal and Niger (Mouchet et al., 1996; Julvez et al., 1997).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Huh.<\/p>\n<p>What about the impact to date of climate change on malaria?\u00a0 Section 8.2.8.2 on Malaria says:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The effects of observed climate change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains controversial.\u00a0 Analyses of time-series data in some sites in East Africa indicate that <em>malaria incidence has increased in the apparent absence of climate trends<\/em>&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>In southern Africa, <em>long-term trends for malaria were not significantly associated with climate<\/em>&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America (Benitez et al., 2004) (see Chapter 1) or in continental regions of the Russian Federation (Semenov et al., 2002). <em>The attribution of changes in human diseases to climate change must first take into account the considerable changes in reporting, surveillance, disease control measures, population changes, and other factors such as landuse change (Kovats et al., 2001; Rogers and Randolph, 2006).<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And so on and on and on.<\/p>\n<p>And there&#8217;s even more important non-alarmism.\u00a0 After all, policymakers don&#8217;t actually read all this stuff, they read the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/pdf\/assessment-report\/ar4\/wg2\/ar4-wg2-spm.pdf\"><em>Summary for Policymakers<\/em><\/a>, which gets signed off on word for word by every member government.\u00a0 Surely the government hype-meisters have oversold the story.\u00a0 In the 16-page summary for WGII, here is everything they say on malaria under the Health Section:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>Climate change is expected to have some mixed effects, such as a decrease or increase in the range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. ** D [8.4]<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>If you aren&#8217;t pissed off at this kind of typically extreme alarmism from the IPCC, well, then you just don&#8217;t spend enough time reading either the mainstream media or the anti-science crowd.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Before getting to the incredibly lame media coverage, let&#8217;s look at the study that got all the attention, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html\">Climate  change and the global malaria recession<\/a>,&#8221; in <em>Nature<\/em> (subs.  req&#8217;d).\u00a0 It concludes:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>First, <strong>widespread claims<\/strong> that rising mean temperatures have already led to increases in worldwide  malaria morbidity and mortality are largely at odds with observed  decreasing global trends in both its endemicity and geographic exten<\/em>t.  Second, the proposed future effects of rising temperatures on endemicity  are at least one order of magnitude smaller than changes observed since  about 1900 and up to two orders of magnitude smaller than those that  can be achieved by the effective scale-up of key control measures. <em> Predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world,<\/em> based on  extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be  set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked  global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global  correlation between malaria endemicity and climate&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p><em>The quantification of a global recession in the range and intensity of  malaria over the twentieth century has allowed us to review the  rationale underpinning <strong>high-profile predictions<\/strong> of a current and future  worsening of the disease in a warming climate.<\/em> It suggests that the  success or failure of our efforts against the parasite in the coming  century are likely to be determined by factors other than climate  change.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Hmm, you may be wondering what those &#8220;widespread claims&#8221; and &#8220;high-profile predictions&#8221; are, since they clearly are not from the most high-profile source, the IPCC.\u00a0 Well, the only\u00a0 body of study says:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>A resurgence in funding for malaria control<sup><a id=\"ref-link-13\" title=\"Snow, R. W., Guerra, C. A., Mutheu, J. J. &amp; Hay, S. I.  International funding for malaria control in relation to populations at  risk of stable Plasmodium falciparum transmission. PLoS Med. 5, e142  (2008)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref10\">10<\/a><\/sup>, the existing efficacy of  affordable interventions, and a growing body of nationally or  sub-nationally reported declines in endemicity or clinical burden<sup><a id=\"ref-link-14\" title=\"World Health Organization. World malaria report 2009 (World  Health Organization, 2009)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref11\">11<\/a><\/sup> have  engendered renewed optimism among the international malaria research and  control community. <em>In marked contrast, however, are model predictions,  reported widely in global climate policy debates<sup><a id=\"ref-link-15\" title=\"McMichael, A. J. et al. in Comparative Quantification of Health  Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Major Risk  Factors (eds Ezzati, M., Lopez, A. D., Rodgers, A. &amp; Murray, C. J.  L.) 1543-1649 (World Health Organization, 2004)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref3\">3<\/a>,  <a id=\"ref-link-16\" title=\"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007:  Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II  to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on  Climate Change (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van  der Linden, P. J. &amp; Hanson, C. E.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref6\">6<\/a>, <a id=\"ref-link-17\" title=\"US Environmental Protection Agency. Endangerment and Cause or  Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the  Clean Air Act (Technical Support Document) (US Environmental Protection  Agency, 2010)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, that climate change is  adding to the present-day burden of malaria and will increase both the  future range and intensity of the disease. In policy arenas, such  predictions can support scenario analysis or serve as a call to action,  but the modelling approaches used and the accuracy of their predictions  have not always been challenged.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>And what is foonote 6?\u00a0 It is IPCC&#8217;s <em>Working Group II<\/em> report!!<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>By the way, WGII also states, &#8220;Health services provide a buffer against the hazards of climate variability and change.\u00a0 For instance, access to cheap, effective anti-malarials, insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spray programmes will be important for future trends in malaria.&#8221;\u00a0 So one hardly accuse the IPCC of using malaria as a &#8220;call to action&#8221; to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as opposed to a call to action to do the kinds of non-climate things the <em>Nature<\/em> article suggests matters more.<\/p>\n<p><strong>I doubt that the authors of the <em>Nature<\/em> article even bothered to go back to read the IPCC report they cited or spend a few minutes searching it for the word &#8220;malaria,&#8221;since that would have made clear it is utter BS to cite it as they did.\u00a0 I suspect the authors just swallowed the media\/disinformer myth that the IPCC has overhyped the malaria-climate link and threat.<\/strong> The same goes for the reviewers, who should have pointed out that this footnote was inappropriate here.<\/p>\n<p>And what is footnote 7?\u00a0 It is &#8220;US Environmental Protection Agency, <em>Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act<\/em> (Technical Support Document) <cite><\/cite>(US  Environmental Protection Agency, <span>2010<\/span>).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>They mean 2009, not 2010, I think.\u00a0 The original April 9, 2009 document is <a href=\"http:\/\/epa.gov\/climatechange\/endangerment\/downloads\/TSD_Endangerment.pdf\">here<\/a>.\u00a0 The final December 7, 2009 document is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.epa.gov\/climatechange\/endangerment\/downloads\/Endangerment%20TSD.pdf\">here<\/a>.\u00a0 Their discussions of malaria are identical and reprinted below in their entirety:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Although large portions of the U.S. <strong>may<\/strong> be at <strong>potential <\/strong>risk for <strong>diseases such as<\/strong> malaria based on the distribution of competent disease vectors, <strong>locally acquired cases have been virtually eliminated, in part due to effective public health interventions, including vector and disease control activities<\/strong>. (Ebi et al., 2008; Confalonieri et al, 2007).<\/p>\n<p><strong>The IPCC concludes that human health risks from climate change will be strongly modulated by changes in health care, infrastructure, technology, and accessibility to health care <\/strong>(Field et al., 2007)&#8230;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And from the EPA&#8217;s section on &#8220;Overview of International Impacts&#8221;:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Mosquito-borne diseases which are sensitive to climate change, such as dengue and malaria are of great importance globally. Studies cited in Confalonieri et al. (2007) have reported associations between spatial, temporal, or spatiotemporal patterns dengue and climate, although these are not entirely consistent. Similarly, the spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonality of malaria is observed to be influenced by climate in sub-Saharan Africa (Confalonieri et al., 2007). In other world regions (e.g., South America, continental regions of the Russian Federation) there is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change (Confalonieri et al., 2007). Changes in reporting, surveillance, disease control measures, population changes and other factors such as land use change must to be taken into account when attempting to attribute changes in human diseases to climate change (Confalonieri et al., 2007)&#8230;.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>I assert that it is also absurd for the authors to cite this EPA document in this sentence: \u00a0 &#8220;In marked contrast, however, <em>are model predictions,<\/em> reported widely in  global climate policy debates<em><sup><a id=\"ref-link-15\" title=\"McMichael, A. J. et al. in Comparative Quantification of Health   Risks: Global and Regional Burden of Disease due to Selected Major Risk   Factors (eds Ezzati, M., Lopez, A. D., Rodgers, A. &amp; Murray, C. J.   L.) 1543-1649 (World Health Organization, 2004)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref3\">3<\/a>,   <a id=\"ref-link-16\" title=\"Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  Climate Change 2007:  Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.  Contribution of Working Group II  to the Fourth Assessment Report of the  Intergovernmental Panel on  Climate Change (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani,  O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van  der Linden, P. J. &amp; Hanson, C. E.)  (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref6\">6<\/a>,  <a id=\"ref-link-17\" title=\"US Environmental Protection Agency.  Endangerment and Cause or  Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases  Under Section 202(a) of the  Clean Air Act (Technical Support Document)  (US Environmental Protection  Agency, 2010)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nature\/journal\/v465\/n7296\/full\/nature09098.html#ref7\">7<\/a><\/sup>,  that climate change is  adding to the present-day burden of malaria and  will increase both the  future range and intensity of the disease.&#8221; <\/em><\/p>\n<p>How the heck does the EPA &#8212; or IPCC &#8212; get lumped in with references that are &#8220;widely reported in global climate policy debates&#8221; that find &#8220;model predictions&#8221; conclude &#8220;climate change is adding to the present-day burden of malaria&#8221;?\u00a0 Same for the assertion that they report model predictions that &#8220;climate change <strong>will<\/strong> increase both the future range and intensity of the disease.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><strong>This kind of BS citation is quite common in sloppy articles and does not inspire confidence in any of the conclusions.<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Now it is true that their third reference &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/cra\/chapters\/volume2\/1543-1650.pdf\">Chapter 20 in a 2004 WHO report<\/a> &#8212; did find climate change was adding to the present day burden of malaria.\u00a0 But that doesn&#8217;t mean their third reference was wrong, even if this sloppy <em>Nature<\/em> article questions that conclusion.<\/p>\n<p>After all, a new and very thorough literature review of 70 studies on the subject supports that overall conclusion.\u00a0 The article is &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.journals.uchicago.edu\/doi\/abs\/10.1086\/650284\">Climate Change and Highland Malaria: Fresh Air  for a Hot Debate<\/a>&#8221; (subs. req&#8217;d) published in <em><span>The Quarterly Review of Biology<\/span><\/em> in <span>March.\u00a0 That journal isn&#8217;t as sexy and high profile as <em>Nature<\/em>, but one must pay attention to a comprehensive literature review like this.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The lead author, Luis\u00a0Fernando\u00a0Chaves is from Emory University and <a href=\"http:\/\/esciencecommons.blogspot.com\/2010\/03\/climate-change-factor-in-malaria-spread.html\">their release<\/a> on the subject says:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong>Climate change is one reason that malaria is on the rise in some parts  of the world<\/strong>, according to new research by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.envs.emory.edu\/faculty\/chaves.html\">Emory environmental  studies&#8217; Luis Chaves<\/a>, but other factors such as migration and  land-use changes are likely also at play&#8230;.\u00a0 Their review of 70 studies aimed to sort out contradictions that have  emerged as scientists try to understand why malaria has been spreading  into highland areas of East Africa, Indonesia, Afghanistan and elsewhere  in recent decades&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>After careful examination of the statistical models of previous studies, the researchers concluded that<strong> climate change is indeed likely playing a role in highland malaria<\/strong>. &#8220;Even if trends in temperature are very small, organisms can amplify such small changes and that could cause an increase in parasite transmission,&#8221; Chaves said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The <em>Science Daily<\/em> story <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencedaily.com\/releases\/2010\/03\/100303162906.htm\">adds<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>&#8220;<strong>We assessed \u2026 conclusions from both sides and found that evidence  for a role of climate in the dynamics is robust<\/strong>,&#8221; write study authors  Luis Fernando Chaves from Emory University and Constantianus Koenraadt  of Wageningen University in the Netherlands. &#8220;However, we also argue  that over-emphasizing a role for climate is misleading for setting a  research agenda, even one which attempts to understand climate change  impacts on emerging malaria patterns.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Malaria, a parasitic disease spread to humans by mosquitoes, is  common in warm climates of Africa, South America and South Asia. The  development and survival, both of the mosquito and the malaria parasite  are highly sensitive to daily and seasonal temperature patterns and the  disease has traditionally been rare in the cooler highland areas. Over  the last 40 years, however, the disease has been spreading to the  highlands, and many studies link the spread to global warming. But that  conclusion is far from unanimous. Other studies have found no evidence  of warming in highland regions, thus ruling out climate change as a  driver for highland malaria.<\/p>\n<p>Chaves and Koenraadt re-examined more than 70 of these studies. <strong>They  found that the studies ruling out a role for climate change in highland  malaria often use inappropriate statistical tools, casting doubt on  their conclusions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>For example, an oft-cited 2002 study of the Kericho highlands of  western Kenya found no warming trend in the area. But when Chaves and  Koenraadt ran the same temperature data from that study through three  additional statistical tests, each test indicated a significant warming  trend. Similar statistical errors plague other comparable studies, the  researchers say.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, <strong>most studies concluding that climate change is indeed  playing a role in highland malaria tend to be statistically strong<\/strong>,  Chaves and Koenraadt found. But just because climate is one factor  influencing malaria&#8217;s spread does not mean it is the only one. What is  needed, the researchers say, is a research approach that combines  climate with other possible factors.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>So on the one hand we have a sloppy <em>Nature<\/em> article that seems to have read media accounts of their references more than they actually read their references.\u00a0 And on the other we have a thorough literature review.<\/p>\n<p>But most of the media doesn&#8217;t seem to bother reading actual scientific studies any more.\u00a0 And so we get <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/science\/archive\/2010\/05\/climate-change-and-malaria\/57040\/\">nonsense like this<\/a> from Clive Crook of the <em>Atlantic Monthly<\/em> and <em>Financial Times<\/em> last week:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>The idea that malaria and climate change are strongly connected still has wide currency among casual environmentalists, <strong>even though those who know what they are talking about have been quietly retreating from this position for some time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And this nonsense from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/world\/international\/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16160473\">the <\/a><em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/world\/international\/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16160473\">Economist<\/a>, <\/em>which asserts the <em>Nature<\/em> study is &#8220;an attempt to re-examine, and perhaps close down, long-running debates  about malaria and climate change.&#8221;\u00a0 I know, it kills you, doesn&#8217;t it?\u00a0 The status quo media keeps telling us that the science isn&#8217;t settled, yet now it asserts that one sloppy article can override dozens of others.<\/p>\n<p>But the <em>Economist<\/em> has a phony storyline it wants to sell:\u00a0 &#8220;If one is going to be optimistic about the future of malaria, one might  also, with caution, be optimistic about the future of assessments of  climate change.&#8221;\u00a0 Ironically, it&#8217;s now pretty clear the 2007 IPCC report didn&#8217;t go as far as an accurate review of the scientific literature would allow.<\/p>\n<p>Normally I wouldn&#8217;t have spent so much time blogging on a study on climate and malaria.\u00a0 But I didn&#8217;t see much choice after people sent me this DotEarth &#8220;opinion&#8221; piece by Revkin, &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/05\/20\/cooling-fear-of-a-malaria-surge-from-warming\/\">Cooling Fear of a Malaria Surge from Warming<\/a>,&#8221; which spins an alternative universe storyline that would make the writers of the TV show <em>Lost<\/em> proud:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>As various arguments for action on global warming have failed to  blunt growth in emissions in recent years, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601081&amp;sid=aNxW1iyn095E\">environmental  groups<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/hdr.undp.org\/en\/media\/HDR_20072008_Presskit.pdf\">international  agencies<\/a> have sometimes tried to turn the focus to diseases that  could pose a growing threat in a warming world \u2014 with malaria being <span id=\"apture_prvw1\"><span style=\"background-position: right -948px;\"> <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/apps\/news?pid=20601101&amp;sid=aMKZ0M6en19o&amp;refer=japan\">a  frequent talking point<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>It shouldn\u2019t be. The science linking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2007\/01\/11\/opinion\/11iht-edreiter.4171294.html\">warming  and malaria risk was always iffy<\/a>, a reality reflected in the <span id=\"apture_prvw2\"><span style=\"background-position: right -1648px;\"> <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/publications_and_data\/ar4\/wg2\/en\/ch8s8-4-1-2.html\">relevant  sections of the 2007 reports<\/a><\/span> from the Intergovernmental  Panel on Climate Change.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Yes, doctors and scientists and others spun up the malaria concern not because of what the scientific literature said but because other messaging stuff wasn&#8217;t working.\u00a0 Seriously, this is <em>X-Files<\/em> and <em>Fringe<\/em> type stuff.\u00a0 The fact is a comprehensive review of the scientific literature makes clear that it is quite legitimate to raise concerns that human-caused could put more people at risk of malaria than would be at risk absent the warming.\u00a0 You can go to Revkin&#8217;s links and see for yourself that again and again the statements are well caveated and fully consistent with the literature.<\/p>\n<p>I would note that, for instance, Revkin&#8217;s language for his first link somehow suggests that &#8220;researchers at Harvard Medical School&#8221; = &#8220;environmental groups.&#8221;\u00a0 Here&#8217;s what the piece he links to says:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Kidney stones, malaria, Lyme disease, depression and respiratory illness all may increase with global warming, researchers at Harvard Medical School said&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>The Harvard center also found climate change will increase deaths from heat waves, raise the incidence of waterborne diseases and spread afflictions such as Lyme disease and malaria.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Revkin says such assertions &#8220;shouldn&#8217;t be.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>I would note for the umpteenth time that even the business as usual case for global warming has a high risk of radically changing the Earth&#8217;s climate (see &#8220;<a title=\"Permanent Link to M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming  projection    to 10\u00b0F \u2014 with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20\u00b0F\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2009\/05\/20\/mit-doubles-global-warming-projections-2\/\">M.I.T.     doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10\u00b0F \u2014 with 866 ppm and  Arctic    warming of 20\u00b0F<\/a>&#8220;).\u00a0 And <em>The Lancet<\/em>\u2019s landmark Health Commission found last year: \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2009\/05\/14\/lancet-global-health-impacts-climate-change\/\">Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What seems to be the case if one reads the literature is that climate change may well have played a  role in some malaria today and it threatens to put more people at  risk in the near- and medium-term (compared to the non-warming case),  but that public health measures have a larger impact, and, finally, in the long  term, warming may actually reduce the total area at risk but only by  creating widespread conditions of severe drought that would have dire  consequences for those living in the vicinity (see <a title=\"Permanent Link to NOAA stunner: Climate change  \u201clargely irreversible for 1000 years,\u201d with permanent Dust Bowls in  Southwest and around the globe\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2009\/01\/26\/noaa-climate-change-irreversible-1000-years-drought-dust-bowls\/\">NOAA stunner: Climate change \u201clargely  irreversible for 1000 years,\u201d with permanent Dust Bowls in Southwest and  around the globe<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;d also note that I&#8217;m not the only one who thinks the <em>Nature<\/em> piece by itself has  flaws.\u00a0 Scidev.net <a href=\"http:\/\/www.scidev.net\/en\/climate-change-and-energy\/new-twist-in-debate-on-climate-change-and-malaria.html?utm_source=link&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=en_climatechangeandenergy\">reports<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>Matthew  Thomas, researcher at Pennsylvania State University,  United States,  said that the study &#8220;plays down the potential importance  of climate  [change]&#8220;. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span>&#8220;It is very easy to come up with a  superficial model,&#8221; he said,  adding that this controversial area  requires better science and more  investigation of basic biology before  reaching any firm conclusions  about climate effects on malaria.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>He pointed out that the <em>Nature<\/em> study predicts a   background expansion and intensification of malaria, which needs to be   taken into account when designing approaches to the disease. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>&#8220;Drug and insecticide resistance could make future   interventions less effective,&#8221; he added, and so even small effects of   climate have to be seen in that context.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span><strong>He said  that the malaria map published in <em>Nature<\/em> shows  that in some  areas malaria has in fact increased with global warming,  in spite of  overall decline over the last century. The map shows such   areas in Latin America, South and South-East Asia, and Sub-Saharan   Africa.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div>\n<p>&#8220;If I was in a village where malaria  went up, it would matter to me  and I would want to know why it  happened.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But Revkin has his storyline and he&#8217;s sticking to it:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>This paper is sure to please longtime critics of climate overstatement \u2014  reinforcing the reality that efforts to get attention that go beyond  the science are bound to kick back.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>It will please them only to the extent that they either don&#8217;t understand &#8212; or choose to misrepresent &#8212; what the recent scientific literature actually says.<\/p>\n<p>Again, the IPCC seems to have <strong>understated<\/strong> what the literature says, and you&#8217;d be hard pressed to find a major report that isn&#8217;t adequately caveated and consistent with the full scientific literature as reviewed in the March <em><span>Quarterly Review of Biology<\/span><\/em> piece.\u00a0 And if you are the kind of person who is pleased by a possible long-term decline in the area at risk to malaria because of severe drought over much of the currently habited planet, well, you probably don&#8217;t read this blog.<\/p>\n<p>Revkin issues this challenge at the end of his piece &#8212; which his amen chorus assert was aimed at me:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span id=\"apture_prvw9\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/article\/mg20627615.800-malaria-in-retreat-despite-warmer-climate.html\">New  Scientist<\/a><\/span> and <span id=\"apture_prvw10\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.treehugger.com\/files\/2010\/05\/global-warming-not-spreading-malaria-fast-as-humans-stopping-it.php\" >Treehugger<\/a><\/span> have covered the paper. Who isn\u2019t covering it?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Well, I&#8217;m covering it.\u00a0 But the issue isn&#8217;t who is covering it,<strong> the issue is who is covering it accurately and who is covering what the scientific literature actually says<\/strong> <strong>on this subject and on the full array of climate impacts we face if we stay anywhere near our current path of unrestricted greenhouse gas emissions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Remember, &#8220;New  scientific findings are found to be more   than twenty times  as  likely to  indicate that global climate disruption   is &#8216;worse than   previously  expected,&#8217; rather than &#8216;not as bad as   previously  expected&#8217;.&#8221;\u00a0 Who isn&#8217;t covering that?<\/p>\n<p>Related Post:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a id=\"destacado_19375\" title=\"An illustrated guide to the latest climate science\" href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2010\/02\/17\/an-illustrated-guide-to-the-latest-climate-science\/\">An illustrated guide to the latest climate science<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a title=\"Permanent Link to Boykoff on \u201cExaggerating  Denialism: Media Representations of Outlier Views on Climate Change\u201d\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"http:\/\/climateprogress.org\/2010\/02\/25\/max-boykoff-media-balance-deniers-contrarian-climate-change\/\">Boykoff  on \u201cExaggerating Denialism: Media Representations of Outlier Views on  Climate Change\u201d<\/a>:\u00a0 Freudenburg: &#8220;Reporters need to learn that, if they wish to discuss &#8216;both sides&#8217; of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate &#8220;other side&#8221; is that, if anything, global climate disruption is likely to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are many reasons why the public doesn&#8217;t understand how dire the climate situation is.\u00a0 We have a well-funded disinformation campaign, generally poor messaging by scientists, and many progressives and environmentalists who have been persuaded to downplay talk of global warming risks. And we have dreadful coverage by the status quo media.\u00a0 The media fails [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":687,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-576054","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/576054","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/687"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=576054"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/576054\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=576054"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=576054"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=576054"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}