On Tuesday, the March Case-Shiller house price index<\/strong> will be released at 9:00 AM. The consensus is for a slight decline in the house price index. At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board will release Consumer Confidence<\/strong> for May (consensus is for an increase to 59). Also on Tuesday, the FHFA house price index<\/strong>, and the Richmond Fed survey<\/strong> will be released.<\/p>\n On Wednesday, the April Durable Goods Orders<\/strong> will be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase. At 10 AM, the Census Bureau will release the April New Home sales report<\/strong>. The consensus is for an increase to 425K (SAAR) from 411K in March. Since new home sales are reported when a contract is signed, April was the last month that reported sales will be positively impacted by the tax credit.<\/p>\n On Thursday, the first revision of the Q1 GDP report<\/strong> will be released at 8:30 AM. The consensus is for an upward revision to 3.5% from the initially reported 3.2%. Also on Thursday, the closely watched initial weekly unemployment claims<\/strong> will be released. Consensus is for a decline to 450K from 471K last week. <\/p>\n And on Friday, the BEA will release the Personal Income and Outlay<\/strong>report for April at 8:30 AM. Also on Friday the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for May will be released. And of course the FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon …<\/p>\n There will be several Fed speeches this week, and a few other economic releases (trucking index, restaurant index).<\/p>\n And a summary of last week:<\/p>\n The MBA reported<\/a> a record 14.69 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q1 2010 (seasonally adjusted).<\/p>\n Click on graph for larger image in new window.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n This graph shows the percent loans delinquent by duration. Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.45%, about the same level as in Q4 2008.<\/p>\n The 90+ day and ‘in foreclosure’ rates are at record levels. Obviously the lenders have been slow to start foreclosure proceedings – and the 90+ day delinquent bucket is very full. Also lenders have been slow to actually foreclose – and the ‘in foreclosure’ bucket is at record levels.<\/p>\n he second graph shows the delinquency rate by state (red is seriously delinquent: 90+ days or in foreclosure, blue is delinquent less than 90 days). <\/p>\n Thirty four states and the District of Columbia have total delinquency rates over 10%. This is a widespread problem.<\/p>\n Total housing starts were at 672 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 5.8% from the revised March rate, and up 41% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959). <\/p>\n Single-family starts were at 593 thousand (SAAR) in April, up 10.2% from the revised February rate, and 65% above the record low in January 2009 (360 thousand). <\/p>\n Permits declined sharply suggesting that starts will decline next month.<\/p>\n This graph shows the builder confidence index<\/a> from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).<\/p>\n The housing market index (HMI) was at 22 in May. This is an increase from 19 in April. This is the highest level since August 2007 – and builders were seen as depressed then!<\/p>\n The record low was 8 set in January 2009. This is still very low … Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.<\/p>\n On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 0.3 percent in March 2010 compared to February 2010.<\/p>\n This graph shows the national LoanPerformance data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.<\/p>\n The index is up 1.7% over the last year, and off 30.5% from the peak. <\/p>\n Moody’s: CRE Prices Decline 0.5% in March<\/strong><\/p>\n This is a comparison of the Moodys\/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index. CRE prices only go back to December 2000.<\/p>\n Commercial real estate values are now down 25% over the last year, and down 42% from the peak in August 2007.<\/p>\n The American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index increased to 48.5 in April from 46.1 in March. This index is a leading indicator for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.<\/p>\n According to the AIA, there is an “approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending” on non-residential construction. So there will probably be further declines in CRE investment through all of 2010, and probably into 2011.<\/p>\n Best wishes to all.<\/li>\n<\/div>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df207f8b9ac3108f0100\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>MBA Q1 2010: Record 14.69% of Mortgage Loans Delinquent or in Foreclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df317f8b9adc10ef0000\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket increased too, and are also close to the Q4 2008 level. This suggests that the pipeline is still filling up at a high rate, but slightly below the rates of early 2009.<\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df407f8b9ad810e70000\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>Housing Starts increase in April<\/strong><\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df537f8b9a635f8f0200\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>NAHB Builder Confidence Increases in May<\/strong><\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df707f8b9a2a43ed0000\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>First American CoreLogic: House Prices Decline 0.3% in March<\/strong><\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9df927f8b9adb10840100\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>Moody’s reported<\/a> that the Moody’s\/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 0.5% in March. This is a repeat sales measure of commercial real estate prices.<\/p>\n![\"chart\"](\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/image\/4bf9dfaf7f8b9a7507370c00\/chart.jpg\")
<\/a>AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows less Contraction in April<\/strong><\/p>\n