{"id":579765,"date":"2010-05-26T15:28:24","date_gmt":"2010-05-26T19:28:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dirt.asla.org\/?p=4616"},"modified":"2010-05-26T15:28:24","modified_gmt":"2010-05-26T19:28:24","slug":"laying-out-a-path-to-a-climate-smart-world","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/579765","title":{"rendered":"Laying out a Path to a Climate-smart World"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\nMarianne Fay, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development Network for the World Bank Group, discussed climate change and developing countries at the National Building Museum. The World Bank recently released the 2010 World Development Report<\/a>, a major report\u00a0focused on climate change and development. Fay said the World Bank is focused on climate change because of its enormous\u00a0impact on the way countries grow, but\u00a0also said it’s\u00a0important to ask:\u00a0What is the impact of development on climate?<\/p>\n

The World Development Report argues that a “climate-smart” world is possible if we “act now, “act together,” and “act differently.” Fay said the World Bank is now using the term “climate-smart” because “climate resilient” is too passive. “The development paradigm needs to change. Inertia in the system needs to change by applying new ideas, policies \/ regulations and financing mechanisms.” New approaches will help countries adapt to climate change. Some countries\u00a0may even have a\u00a0comparative advantage and see opportunities with climate change, Fay said.<\/p>\n

On the importance of “acting now,” Fay argued that the threat of climate change is “serious and immediate.” Using IPCC data from 2001 and then 2007, she showed how the risks of unique and threatening systems, extreme weather, and\u00a0large-scale discontinuities are all growing.\u00a0”We are already at 0.8C above pre-industrial temperatures.\u00a0Stopping at\u00a02.0C above pre-industrial levels, which is the best we can achieve, still puts us in the danger zone.”<\/p>\n

Inertia on many fronts\u00a0is holding back change. Inertia in the built environment is the result of costs (it costs\u00a0to retrofit a building, street, or entire neighborhood). Inertia in the climate system relates to feasibility. In institutions and individual’s behavior, it’s due to a lack of “political momentum.” Inertia together with uncertainty\u00a0creates a situation similar to\u00a0”driving in the fog heading towards a cliff” but not knowing exactly when to stop. “So we need to take a precautionary approach.” For cities, Fay said\u00a0how we\u00a0design communities now will impact the climate up to 100 years in the future. Power plants, which are expensive to build,\u00a0last\u00a040-50 years, but their impacts are longer. Housing stock, which gets renewed at a rate of around 2 percent per year, also has a long-term\u00a0impact. The potential long-term climate impact of\u00a0any new\u00a0built systems must be considered in advance.<\/p>\n

On “acting together,” Fay said poor countries will bear 80 percent of the overall impact, but are responsible for only 1\/3 of the total carbon stock in the atmosphere to date. This demonstrates the “deep unfairness of the issue.” She argued that relatively smaller changes in the developed world could create “space” for increased emissions in the developing world under a safe total cap. As an example, if American SUVs\u00a0applied EU fuel efficiency standards (“which wouldn’t cause too much pain”), the emission reductions would cover growing emisisons from providing electricity to 1.6 billion Africans. Currently, only 25 percent of Africans have access to electricity.<\/p>\n

Looking at a “marginal cost abatement curve” created by McKinsey & Company, which presents the climate change emissions reductions from a range of measures including energy efficiency, renewable energy, and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), Fay said every country has both cheap and expensive options. “All the cheap\u00a0options aren’t\u00a0exclusively in\u00a0the developing or developed worlds.”\u00a0Across the board, energy efficiency is a low-hanging fruit, and relatively cheap to implement in comparison with carbon capture and sequestration schemes.<\/p>\n

In order to “act differently,” countries need to tap every potential\u00a0energy efficiency measure. “We should target the nega-watts in addition to the mega-watts.” Fay added that nuclear energy has a role to play despite people’s NIMBY concerns. Biomass needs lots of water and land and so\u00a0isn’t feasible on a large-scale given the world population is expected to swell to\u00a0nine billion by 2050. Renewables “are great but provide intermittent energy and are located far from where energy is used.” Fossil fuels will continue to be used, but carbon capture needs to be scaled up. Fay didn’t mention the enormous costs\u00a0(in the billions) or potential environmental dangers involved in\u00a0CCS processes.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Increasing energy R&D and moving subsidies away from fossil fuels and towards wind, hydro and solar power\u00a0are\u00a0smart measures. “Right now, there’s only $15 billion in government energy R&D worldwide. This is equal to the amount the French spend on cheese each year, and Americans spend on pet food.” Private sector R&D investment is another estimated $60-70 billion per year.\u00a0 “While innovative industries put in 8-15 percent of total revenue in R&D, energy businesses spend a total of 0.5 percent.” The energy business is “fossilized.” Additionally, of the $300 billion in energy subsidies, about half of that goes to fossil fuels. Inertia\u00a0also seems to be\u00a0built into the global energy production system.<\/p>\n

The Copenhagen Accord (see earlier post<\/a>) was viewed as a “disappointment by most,” but yielded an agreement to\u00a0increase funds for climate change mitigation\u00a0 and adaptation in developing countries to $30 billion. Unfortunately, the World Bank and other organizations estimate that some $275-300 billion is actually needed per year. “Some developing countries are so poor they can’t pay for mitigation themselves.” The World Bank hopes to leverage funds so developing countries can invest in clean energy like wind, solar, and hydroelectric,\u00a0instead of coal plants. “We can then finance the difference in costs.” This will also help the Bank reduce\u00a0those big new loans\u00a0for new coal plants. A recent $3 billion loan<\/a> for South Africa generated major controversy.<\/p>\n

On the opposite scale, Fay pointed to some innovations at the local level. While the U.S. never ratified the Kyoto Accord,\u00a0hundreds of\u00a0cities, many of which are in the U.S., have signed on to Kyoto emissions reduction targets. In India, at the community level,\u00a0”barefoot hydrologists” are using simple techniques to monitor underground water. Also, “remote sensing” technology can now be easily and widely deployed. Indeed, in a recent interview with Solutions<\/em>, Elinor Ostrom, the first woman to win a Nobel Prize in economics recently said the most effective climate change mitigation and adaptation activities occur at the local (not international)\u00a0levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In the developed world, Fay called for increased press coverage on the negative impacts of climate change, and said marketing can help change people’s behavior. “Fifteen years ago, no one wore a seatbelt so in some cases marketing works.”<\/p>\n

When asked about the economic and enviromental costs and benefits\u00a0of\u00a0urban smart growth\u00a0redevelopment or retrofitting urban neighborhoods or cities wholesale to make them more energy efficient and livable, Fay\u00a0could offer no\u00a0positive or negative numbers\u00a0on emissions. “The only cities\u00a0getting redesigned on a major scale are in China. Democracy presents a real challenge to this type of work.”\u00a0<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, World Changing<\/em> pointed to\u00a0recent\u00a0numbers on larger-scale neighborhood energy efficiency programs<\/a>.\u00a0However, more research\u00a0may be\u00a0needed on the costs and benefits of LEED-ND<\/a>-style neighborhood and urban\u00a0redevelopment in terms of the climate. Hopefully, retrofitting\u00a0for energy efficiency at the large-scale\u00a0yields a net-gain for\u00a0both people and the\u00a0climate.<\/p>\n

Check out the World Development Report 2010<\/a> and the World Bank’s blog on climate change and development<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Image credit: DPI Animation House \/ 2010 ASLA Honor Award. Park 20\/20: A Cradle to Cradle Inspired Master Plan, Haarlemmermeer, Netherlands. William McDonough + Partners.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/a> \"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Marianne Fay, Chief Economist, Sustainable Development Network for the World Bank Group, discussed climate change and developing countries at the National Building Museum. The World Bank recently released the 2010 World Development Report, a major report\u00a0focused on climate change and development. Fay said the World Bank is focused on climate change because of its enormous\u00a0impact […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7015,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-579765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7015"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=579765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/579765\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=579765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=579765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=579765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}