{"id":648701,"date":"2013-03-25T16:30:28","date_gmt":"2013-03-25T20:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/gigaom.com\/?p=623772"},"modified":"2013-03-25T16:30:28","modified_gmt":"2013-03-25T20:30:28","slug":"espn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/648701","title":{"rendered":"ESPN should just hire Nate Silver already"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>OK, so your NCAA tournament bracket has officially been busted. Don&#8217;t feel so bad. ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas, <a href=\"http:\/\/gigaom.com\/2012\/11\/07\/why-nate-silver-and-others-predicted-the-election-perfectly\/\">stat-geek superstar Nate Silver<\/a> and even SAP&#8217;s vaunted predictive analytics software all missed the upsets, too. So did President Obama.<\/p>\n<p>Three of the four correctly picked 11 of the Sweet 16 teams, while Bilas correctly chose 10. But despite the similariy in results between men and models, I&#8217;d follow Silver&#8217;s model-based forecast every time. Not only is it accurate, but it stands to make people a lot of money.<\/p>\n<p>Just to be clear, though, Silver doesn&#8217;t actually pick winners and losers (at least not publicly, as far as I can tell). Rather, he <a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2011\/03\/14\/how-we-made-our-n-c-a-a-picks\/\">uses a model that takes into account a number of variables<\/a> &#8212; including a handful of popular computer rankings &#8212; and produces the probability of each team advancing through each round of the tournament. That&#8217;s what makes his forecast so effective if you&#8217;re a betting man: It&#8217;s easy enough to pick the winner and most of the final four by just choosing the top seeds (I&#8217;m looking at you, POTUS), but the way to accel past everyone else in points is to spot the Cinderellas.<\/p>\n<p>If I were ESPN, I&#8217;d pay Silver a boatload of money to come on TV once a year and present his forecast to a March-Madness-obsessed nation. I&#8217;m fairly certain the network could\u00a0extend the broadcast out to about three hours and charge Super-Bowl-like advertising rates. Here&#8217;s why.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"its-the-probabilities-stupid\">It&#8217;s the probabilities, stupid<\/h2>\n<p>As I was saying, anyone, including Silver, can spot the best teams in the tournament by watching enough basketball, settling on some important data points to analyze or just following the NCAA&#8217;s seeding. Here are the seeds my experts, data analysts and the leader of the free world chose for the Sweet 16:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/insider.espn.go.com\/mens-college-basketball\/tournament\/2013\/story\/_\/id\/9065660\/jay-bilas-bracket-depth-pick-pick-2013-ncaa-tournament-advice\">Bilas<\/a>: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 5<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/games.espn.go.com\/tournament-challenge-bracket\/en\/entry?entryID=4267886\">Obama<\/a>: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/scn.sap.com\/community\/visual-intelligence\/blog\/2013\/03\/25\/analysis-of-ncaa-march-madness-round-of-64-and-32\">SAP<\/a>: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com\/2013\/03\/18\/parity-in-n-c-a-a-means-no-commanding-favorite\/\">Silver<\/a>: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here\u00a0<del datetime=\"2013-03-25T20:08:14+00:00\"><\/del>are the actual seeds that advanced to the Sweet 16: 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6, 9, 12, 13, 15.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_624020\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\" style=\"width: 310px\"><a href=\"http:\/\/gigaom2.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/sapdatageekbracket2013.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"SAP's mid-seed-heavy bracket\" src=\"http:\/\/gigaom2.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/sapdatageekbracket2013.jpg?w=300&#038;h=210\" width=\"300\" height=\"210\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-624020\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">SAP&#8217;s mid-seed-heavy bracket<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The smart money is always on the higher seeds from a pure probability standpoint (although I have no idea how SAP built its model to get so many 5-8 seeds in the Sweet 16). But strange things can, and often do, happen in the NCAA tournament. This year, those strange things are called\u00a0Wichita State (9-seed), Oregon (12-seed), LaSalle (13-seed) and Florida Gulf Coast University (15-seed).<\/p>\n<p>So why am I so high on Silver if his Sweet 16 probabilities were just as off-base as the two non model-based human brackets and SAP&#8217;s model-based picks? Because if I were looking for a few upsets, he might have helped me spot them. Here some of his notable projections for lower-seeded teams most likely to advance:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Arizona (6-seed): 38.1 percent of reaching the Sweet 16 &#8212; they made it (SAP picked this correctly)<\/li>\n<li>Florida Gulf Coast (15-seed): 3.3 percent chance of making the Sweet 16 &#8212; they made it<\/li>\n<li>Oregon (12-seed): 17.5 percent chance of making the Sweet 16 &#8212; they made it<\/li>\n<li>Minnesota (11-seed): 61.9 percent chance of winning its first game &#8212; it won (Bilas, SAP and Obama picked this, too)<\/li>\n<li>California (12-seed): 32.8 percent chance of winning its first game &#8212; it won (SAP picked this correctly)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/gigaom2.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/538bracket-3-blog480.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"538bracket-3-blog480\" src=\"http:\/\/gigaom2.files.wordpress.com\/2013\/03\/538bracket-3-blog480.png?w=708\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-624008\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And in my neck of the woods &#8212; Las Vegas &#8212; being smarter than the sportsbooks means big money. No. 12 Oregon and No. 13 LaSalle didn&#8217;t really sneak up on the oddsmakers (60-1 and 100-1 odds to make the Final Four, respectively), but No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast <a href=\"http:\/\/www.lasvegassun.com\/blogs\/talking-points\/2013\/mar\/19\/ncaa-tournament-odds-how-sports-books-see-south-re\/\">is paying out 1,000-1 should it reach the Final Four<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>I wouldn&#8217;t count on that happening, though. Silver <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2013\/03\/18\/sports\/ncaabasketball\/nate-bracket.html?_r=0\">now gives those teams a 1 percent, 5.1 percent and 0.8 percent chance, respectively<\/a>, of making the Final Four. Louisville, Florida and Indiana look like locks to make it, and one of them should win the tournament.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"men-vs-models-lets-call-it-a-d\">Men vs. models: Let&#8217;s call it a draw<\/h2>\n<p>If you&#8217;re looking at these selections as some sort of man-versus-machine competition, I don&#8217;t think you&#8217;ll find a clear winner. Although Silver comes out looking the best of the four brackets I analyzed, his projections aren&#8217;t that much different than Bilas&#8217;s picks. And although SAP&#8217;s picks fall apart in the end &#8212; two of its Final Four selections (including its national champion pick) are out &#8212; it did correctly pick a couple upsets. President Obama, well, he pretty much picked chalk.<\/p>\n<p>The better way to look at these results is probably as further evidence that man and machine need to work together more closely, something <a href=\"http:\/\/gigaom.com\/2013\/03\/22\/5-ways-big-data-is-going-to-blow-your-mind-and-change-your-world\/\">we highlighted heavily at our Structure: Data conference last week.<\/a> Men create models, but men probably don&#8217;t crunch the numbers. And when there&#8217;s pride or money on the line, knowing which No. 15 seed has the best chances of making a run is probably what matters most.<\/p>\n<p>Your chances of picking every upset without a little help: not good at all.<\/p>\n<p> <span class='embed-youtube' style='text-align:center; display: block;'><iframe class='youtube-player' type='text\/html' width='604' height='370' src='http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/O6Smkv11Mj4?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;%23038;fs=1&#038;%23038;showsearch=0&#038;%23038;showinfo=1&#038;%23038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;%23038;wmode=transparent' frameborder='0'><\/iframe><\/span> <br \/> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/stats.wordpress.com\/b.gif?host=gigaom.com&#038;blog=14960843&#038;%23038;post=623772&#038;%23038;subd=gigaom2&#038;%23038;ref=&#038;%23038;feed=1\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/pubads.g.doubleclick.net\/gampad\/jump?iu=\/1008864\/GigaOM_RSS_300x250&#038;sz=300x250&#038;%23038;c=594381\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/pubads.g.doubleclick.net\/gampad\/ad?iu=\/1008864\/GigaOM_RSS_300x250&#038;sz=300x250&#038;%23038;c=594381\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Related research and analysis from GigaOM Pro:<\/strong><br \/>Subscriber content. <a href=\"http:\/\/pro.gigaom.com\/?utm_source=data&#038;utm_medium=editorial&#038;utm_campaign=auto3&#038;utm_term=623772+espn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already&#038;utm_content=dharrisstructure\">Sign up for a free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/pro.gigaom.com\/2012\/10\/helix-nebula-and-the-future-of-europes-cloud\/?utm_source=data&#038;utm_medium=editorial&#038;utm_campaign=auto3&#038;utm_term=623772+espn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already&#038;utm_content=dharrisstructure\">Helix Nebula and the future of Europe&#8217;s cloud<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/pro.gigaom.com\/2012\/09\/listening-platforms-finding-the-value-in-social-media-data\/?utm_source=data&#038;utm_medium=editorial&#038;utm_campaign=auto3&#038;utm_term=623772+espn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already&#038;utm_content=dharrisstructure\">Listening platforms: finding the value in social media data<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/pro.gigaom.com\/2012\/03\/a-near-term-outlook-for-big-data\/?utm_source=data&#038;utm_medium=editorial&#038;utm_campaign=auto3&#038;utm_term=623772+espn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already&#038;utm_content=dharrisstructure\">A near-term outlook for big data<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img width='1' height='1' src='http:\/\/gigaom.feedsportal.com\/c\/34996\/f\/646446\/s\/29faceff\/mf.gif' border='0'\/><\/p>\n<div class='mf-viral'>\n<table border='0'>\n<tr>\n<td valign='middle'><a href=\"http:\/\/share.feedsportal.com\/viral\/sendEmail.cfm?lang=en&#038;title=ESPN+should+just+hire+Nate+Silver+already&#038;link=http%3A%2F%2Fgigaom.com%2F2013%2F03%2F25%2Fespn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already%2F\" ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/res3.feedsportal.com\/images\/emailthis2.gif\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<td valign='middle'><a href=\"http:\/\/res.feedsportal.com\/viral\/bookmark.cfm?title=ESPN+should+just+hire+Nate+Silver+already&#038;link=http%3A%2F%2Fgigaom.com%2F2013%2F03%2F25%2Fespn-should-just-hire-nate-silver-already%2F\" ><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/res3.feedsportal.com\/images\/bookmark.gif\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/da.feedsportal.com\/r\/161770405749\/u\/49\/f\/646446\/c\/34996\/s\/29faceff\/a2.htm\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/da.feedsportal.com\/r\/161770405749\/u\/49\/f\/646446\/c\/34996\/s\/29faceff\/a2.img\" border=\"0\"\/><\/a><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" src=\"http:\/\/pi.feedsportal.com\/r\/161770405749\/u\/49\/f\/646446\/c\/34996\/s\/29faceff\/a2t.img\" border=\"0\"\/><\/p>\n<div class=\"feedflare\">\n<a href=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/OmMalik?a=zjDDQSRbXEU:q3hoFBVt0K0:yIl2AUoC8zA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~ff\/OmMalik?d=yIl2AUoC8zA\" border=\"0\"><\/img><\/a>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/OmMalik\/~4\/zjDDQSRbXEU\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OK, so your NCAA tournament bracket has officially been busted. Don&#8217;t feel so bad. ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Bilas, stat-geek superstar Nate Silver and even SAP&#8217;s vaunted predictive analytics software all missed the upsets, too. So did President Obama. Three of the four correctly picked 11 of the Sweet 16 teams, while Bilas correctly [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-648701","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648701","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=648701"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/648701\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=648701"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=648701"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=648701"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}