{"id":653094,"date":"2013-04-18T07:07:43","date_gmt":"2013-04-18T11:07:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.reuters.com\/globalinvesting\/?p=9224"},"modified":"2013-04-18T07:07:43","modified_gmt":"2013-04-18T11:07:43","slug":"weekly-radar-second-guessing-japan-flows-as-global-growth-slows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/653094","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Radar: Second-guessing Japan flows as global growth slows"},"content":{"rendered":"

Figuring out what was driving pretty violent market moves this week was trickier than usual \u2013 and that says something about how much the herd has scattered this year, with \u2018risk on-risk off\u2019 correlations<\/a> having weakened sharply. Just as everyone puzzled over a potential “wall of money” from Japan after the BOJ\u2019s aggressive reflation efforts, the bottom seemed to fall out of gold, energy and broader commodity markets \u2013 dragging both equity markets and, unusually, peripheral euro zone bond yields lower in the process. \u00a0As dangerous as it may be to seek an overriding narrative these days, you could possibly tie all up these moves under the BOJ banner \u2013 something along these lines: the threat of a further yen losses pushes an already pumped-up US dollar ever higher across the board and undermines dollar-denominated \u00a0commodities, which have already been hampered by what looks like yet another lull in global demand. Developed market equities, whose Q1 surge had been reined in by several weeks of disappointing<\/a> economic data<\/a> and an iffy start to the Q1 earnings season, were then hit further by a lunge in heavy cap mining and energy stocks. The commodities hit may also help explain the persistent underperformance of emerging markets this year. What’s more the lift to Italian and Spanish government bonds<\/a> comes partly from an assumption any Japanese money exit will seek U.S. and European government bonds and relatively higher-yielding euro government paper may be favoured by some over the paltry returns in the core \u2018safe havens\u2019 of Treasuries or bunds. The confidence to reach for yield has clearly risen over the past six months as wider systemic fears have receded \u2013 something underlined in dramatic style this week by a huge lunge in gold,\u00a0 now lost almost 20 percent <\/a>in the year to date.<\/p>\n

While all that logic may be plausible, there have been dozens of other reasons floating around for the seemingly erratic twists and turns of the week.<\/p>\n

The only truth so far is that everyone is still just guessing about the likely extent of a Japanese outflow and confidence about global growth has received another setback.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible the BOJ focus may be a distraction from what looks likes the yet another Spring slowdown in the world economy \u2013 a worrying portent for Europe in particular where much of the continent is still in recession or semi-recession since late last year. Most forecasters and asset managers <\/a>seem to retaining faith in the gradual recovery thesis, but they are nervous as economic surprises turn negative everywhere. Next week\u2019s flash readings for April business surveys, or PMIs, may well be the number of the week as a result \u2013 with Q1 GDP from the US and UK also topping list of data releases too. Any fallout from this Friday\u2019s G20 meeting in Washington could also set the tone early next week as yen moves may be discussed alongside growing doubts about the wisdom of austerity<\/a> in recessions. Otherwise, it’s a big week for Q1 earnings on both sides of the pond.<\/p>\n

Final day of IMF Spring Meeting Sun<\/strong><\/p>\n

Israel rate decision Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

EZ April consumer confidence Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

US March existing home sales Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Mon: Suez, STMicro <\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Mon: Halliburton, Texas<\/strong><\/p>\n

OECD Japan survey Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Global April flash PMIs Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Italy April consumer confidence Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK March govt borrowing data Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

US March new home sales Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hungary rate decision Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Treasury 2-yr auction Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Tues: Scania, SEB, Swedbank, Stora Enso<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Tues: Amgen, DuPont, Xerox<\/strong><\/p>\n

NZ rate decision Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

German April Ifo Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

German 30-yr bond auction Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

US March durable goods orders Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Treasury 7-yr bond auction Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Weds: ABB, Credit Suisse, Barclays, Daimler, Ericsson, France Tel, GSK, Iberdrola, Nordea, Peugeot, Standard Life, Svenska Handelsbanken<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Weds: Boeing, T Rowe Price, Qualcomm<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK Q1 GDP Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Euro group\u2019s Dijsselbloem at European Parliament Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Thurs: Unilever, Astrazeneca, BAT, Bayer, Santander, Saab, Saint Gobain, Areva, Pernod Ricard, Volvo<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Thurs: Exxon, Colgate-Palmolive, Coca Cola, Dow Chemical, Time Warner, UPS, <\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan March, Tokyo April inflation Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

France\u2019s Hollande in Beijing Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

BOJ decision and presser Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

French April consumer confidence Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

EZ March credit\/M3 Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

SNB AGM Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 GDP Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Fri: Tyco<\/strong><\/p>\n

Malaysia\/Iceland parliamentary elections Sat<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Figuring out what was driving pretty violent market moves this week was trickier than usual \u2013 and that says something about how much the herd has scattered this year, with \u2018risk on-risk off\u2019 correlations having weakened sharply. Just as everyone puzzled over a potential “wall of money” from Japan after the BOJ\u2019s aggressive reflation efforts, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7385,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-653094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7385"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=653094"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/653094\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=653094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=653094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=653094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}