{"id":654564,"date":"2013-04-25T08:41:01","date_gmt":"2013-04-25T12:41:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.reuters.com\/globalinvesting\/?p=9283"},"modified":"2013-04-25T08:41:01","modified_gmt":"2013-04-25T12:41:01","slug":"weekly-radar-question-mark-for-the-austerians","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/654564","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Radar: Question mark for the \u2018austerians\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the more startling moves of the week was the fresh rally in euro government debt \u2013 with 10-year Italian and Spanish borrowing rates falling to their lowest since late 2010 when the euro crisis was just erupting and 2-year Italian yields even falling to 1999 euro launch levels. The trigger? There’s been a slow build up for weeks on the prospect of new Japanese investor flows<\/a>\u00a0 seeking liquid overseas government bonds\u00a0 – but it was signs of a sharp slowdown in Germany\u2019s economy that seems to have had a perversely positive effect on the region\u2019s asset markets as a whole. The logic is that German objections to another ECB rate cut will ebb, as will its refusal to ease up on front-loaded fiscal austerity across Europe. If its own economic engine is now suffering along with the rest, significantly just five months ahead of German Federal elections, then a tilt toward growth in the regional policy mix may not seem so bad for Berlin after all. And if euro economies are more in synch, albeit in recession rather than growth, then perhaps it will lead to a more effective regional policy response.<\/p>\n

All that plays into the intensifying “growth vs austerity” debate, which had already shifted at the Washington IMF meetings last week and was sharpened this week by by EU Commission chief Barroso\u2019s <\/a>claim that the high watermark of EU\u2019s austerity push had passed. On top of the Reinhart\/Rogoff<\/a> research farrago, it’s been a bad couple of weeks for the \u201causterians\u201d, with only a UK Q1 GDP bounceback<\/a> of any support for case of ever deeper fiscal cuts,\u00a0 and investors smell a change of tack. Their reaction? Not only have euro government borrowing costs fallen\u00a0 further, but euro equities too rallied for 4 straight days through Wednesday. Those arguing that investors would run screaming at the sight of a more growth-tilted policy mix in Europe may have some explaining to do.<\/p>\n

Next week is back on monetary policy watch however. The ECB takes centre stage amid rate cut talks hopes for help for credit-starved SMEs. The FOMC meets stateside aswell just ahead of the critical US April employment report.<\/p>\n

Major events next week:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iceland\/Malatsia elections Sat<\/strong><\/p>\n

EZ biz\/consumer confidence Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

German April inflation Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Italy\/France\/Belgium govt bond auctions Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Mon: Fiat, Volkswagen, Deutsche Boerse<\/strong><\/p>\n

US March pending home sales Mon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan March jobless, spending, production, housing Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Europe Q1 earnings Tues: BP, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Lloyds, EdF, Whitbread <\/strong><\/p>\n

German April unemployment Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

EZ April inflation Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK March mortgage\/credit data Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Tues: Marathon, Pfizer, FMC<\/strong><\/p>\n

US April consumer confidence, Chicago PMI Tues<\/strong><\/p>\n

ADB meeting in New Delhi, Weds-Sun<\/strong><\/p>\n

UK local elections Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

US April manufacturing ISM Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

FOMC decision Weds<\/strong><\/p>\n

Global manufacturing PMIs Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

European Commission Spring forecasts Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

ECB decision\/presser Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

BoE decision Thurs <\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Thurs: \u00a0AIG, Kraft, International Paper<\/strong><\/p>\n

US March trade Thurs<\/strong><\/p>\n

BOJ minutes Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

India monetary policy statement Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n

US Q1 earnings Fri: ADP, Moody\u2019s, Duke Energy<\/strong><\/p>\n

US April employment report\/Services PMI Fri<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

One of the more startling moves of the week was the fresh rally in euro government debt \u2013 with 10-year Italian and Spanish borrowing rates falling to their lowest since late 2010 when the euro crisis was just erupting and 2-year Italian yields even falling to 1999 euro launch levels. The trigger? There’s been a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7385,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-654564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654564","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7385"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=654564"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/654564\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=654564"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=654564"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=654564"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}