<\/p>\n
It’s getting hard to keep track of all the different ways people are attacking Friday’s employment number.<\/p>\n
You’ve got TrimTabs<\/a> which keeps banging the drum about the birth-death model.<\/p>\n You’ve got folks talking about how it was all in temp work<\/a>, or the public.<\/p>\n Then there are those who point out all of the people who have left the workforce<\/a>.<\/p>\n David Rosenberg chimes in with another: that it just can’t be right, because it doesn’t jibe with the contraction in the services sector<\/p>\n ——<\/p>\n A 1-IN-35 EVENT <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n It’s remarkable nobody talks about this. The big surprise in the payroll data was So as we wonder how the headline number could only be -11k on Friday, there The rest of the economy shed 145 jobs and the declines were spread across Join the conversation about this story »<\/a><\/p>\n See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n It’s getting hard to keep track of all the different ways people are attacking Friday’s employment number. You’ve got TrimTabs which keeps banging the drum about the birth-death model. You’ve got folks talking about how it was all in temp work, or the public. Then there are those who point out all of the people […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-68826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68826"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68826\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
the service sector component; it rose 58k. But we know from the ADP report
that service sector employment fell 81k, which was fractionally worse than the
79k decline in October. Such a discrepancy has occurred less than 3% of the
time in the past, and each time, the following month after the big gap, there was
a convergence … with headline nonfarm payrolls swinging 100k lower on
average, which would imply a 111k decline when December’s figure comes out.
Also take note that the +58k print in the service sector payroll was completely at
odds with the 41.6 reading in the ISM non-manufacturing employment index in
November — a figure that in the past was consistent with a -192k tally in service
sector payrolls and never before aligned with a positive number. Go back to the
2001 recession, and the worst ISM non-manufacturing jobs subindex was 43.9
(right after 9\/11) and here we published a figure that was more than two points
shy of that! <\/p>\n
were some very lumpy increases in some very non-cyclical segments of the
economy:
• Administration\/waste management +87k
• Health\/education +40k
• Government +7k<\/p>\n
nearly 60% of the industrial base from retail, to transports, to manufacturing, to
construction. For some reason, we didn’t see this dichotomy mentioned
anywhere in the weekend press. <\/p>\n\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"