{"id":70219,"date":"2009-12-08T02:08:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-08T07:08:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/markets-ignored-brazils-sudden-iron-export-slow-down-2009-12"},"modified":"2009-12-08T02:08:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-08T07:08:00","slug":"markets-completely-ignore-brazils-sudden-iron-export-slow-down","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/70219","title":{"rendered":"Markets Completely Ignore Brazil&#8217;s Sudden Iron Export Slow-Down"},"content":{"rendered":"<div style=\"float: left; padding: 15px 15px 15px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\ntweetmeme_source = 'moneygame'; tweetmeme_service = 'bit.ly';\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>In case you missed it, Brazilian iron ore exports fell in November, down 15% from the average monthly rate for the preceding three months, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet the commodities markets seem to have shrugged it off&#8230; or haven&#8217;t yet digested its potential implications.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Goldman Sachs:<\/span> Taken in conjunction with the recent slowdown in vessel bookings from Australia, this could indicate a slow start to 2010 for Chinese imports of iron ore. However, the market is clearly not pricing in a slowdown.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\">As the table below shows, the current [ore] spot price of $102.50\/t CFR implies a 40% rise in Australian contract prices for JFY 2010\/11 on a FOB netback basis while the forward price for 2Q10 implies a 34% rise &#8211; both well above our base case assumption of +20% for Australian fines.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b1dcb75000000000076ec17\" border=\"0\" alt=\"iron\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Thing is, a 2010 Chinese iron ore slow-down would have negative implications for more than just steel prices. It would probably be indicative of a greater slow-down of commodity-consuming Chinese economic activity, such as construction. Thus a slow-down in Brazilian iron ore imports reflects a slow-down in Chinese demand. Given that China is such a massive proportion of commodities demand these days, thus could also be a red flag for generalized commodity-price weakness ahead. One month&#8217;s data doesn&#8217;t make a trend, but this Brazilian blip is surely something to stay aware of.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman shows how iron ore prices haven&#8217;t weakened at all lately:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b1dcbc90000000000c72cdc\" border=\"0\" alt=\"iron\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>(Via Goldman Sachs, Iron Ore Price Snapshot, Malcolm Southwood, 7 December 2009)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><input id=\"gwProxy\" type=\"hidden\" \/><input id=\"jsProxy\" onclick=\"jsCall();\" type=\"hidden\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/markets-ignored-brazils-sudden-iron-export-slow-down-2009-12#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/steel-giants-executive-decision-make-1-billion-or-save-the-planet-2009-12\">Steel Giant Arcelore Mittal In Line For A \u00a31 Billion Windfall Thanks To Cap &amp; Trade<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/china-has-more-idle-steel-capacity-than-japanese-and-korean-production-combined-2009-11\">China Has More Idle Steel Capacity Than Japanese And Korean Production Combined<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/china-cant-cool-its-steel-industry-2009-10\">Efforts To Cool Down China&#8217;s Steel Industry Completely Failed<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/jM0Z-XL7Pxw\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In case you missed it, Brazilian iron ore exports fell in November, down 15% from the average monthly rate for the preceding three months, according to Goldman Sachs. Yet the commodities markets seem to have shrugged it off&#8230; or haven&#8217;t yet digested its potential implications. Goldman Sachs: Taken in conjunction with the recent slowdown in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70219"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70219\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}