{"id":75535,"date":"2009-12-11T01:57:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-11T06:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-yen-intervention-risk-in-the-red-zone-2009-12"},"modified":"2009-12-11T01:57:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-11T06:57:00","slug":"morgan-stanley-japanese-currency-risk-in-the-red-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/75535","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley: Japanese Currency Risk In The Red Zone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"float: left; padding: 15px 15px 15px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\/\/ <![CDATA[\ntweetmeme_source = 'moneygame'; tweetmeme_service = 'bit.ly';\n\/\/ ]]><\/script><br \/>\n<script src=\"http:\/\/tweetmeme.com\/i\/scripts\/button.js\" type=\"text\/javascript\"><\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Currency traders be warned. Japan could very well step into the currency markets any time now according to a December 10th note from Morgan Stanley.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Yen intervention risk is rising, and is now in the &#8216;red zone&#8217;, implying more than a 30% chance of intervention:<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Sophia Drossos:<\/span> Updating our USD\/JPY intervention model shows the probability of official action rising from 29% last week to 34% this week (Exhibit 1). The key factors contributing to an increased intervention risk include the mispricing of longerterm relative growth outlooks (Exhibit 2), the deviation of the real effective JPY exchange rate from its longer-term average (Exhibit 3), and a sharp rise in long JPY positions (Exhibit 4).<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/feedproxy.google.com\/morgan-stanley-yen-intervention-risk-in-the-red-zone-2009-12\/industry-calls-for-yen-intervention-are-elevated-since-the-japanese-economy-is-underperforming-its-trading-partners-such-as-the-us-1\"><strong>Check out the supporting charts here &gt;&gt;&gt;<\/strong><\/a><\/h4>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b21e5c0000000000056445e\" border=\"0\" alt=\"Yen\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-yen-intervention-risk-in-the-red-zone-2009-12#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-yen-intervention-risk-rising-2009-12\">Morgan Stanley: Yen Intervention Risk Rising<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-this-is-it-its-time-to-play-the-yen-carry-trade-2009-12\">Morgan Stanley: The Dollar Has Bottomed, Time To Play The Yen Carry Trade<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/with-dollar-at-14-year-low-against-yen-japan-raises-hints-of-dramatic-intervention-2009-11\">With Dollar At 14-Year Low Against Yen, Japan Raises Hints Of Dramatic Intervention<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/s2Ip-seFU8Y\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Currency traders be warned. Japan could very well step into the currency markets any time now according to a December 10th note from Morgan Stanley. &nbsp; Yen intervention risk is rising, and is now in the &#8216;red zone&#8217;, implying more than a 30% chance of intervention: Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Sophia Drossos: Updating our USD\/JPY intervention [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75535\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}