{"id":87118,"date":"2009-12-17T15:54:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-17T20:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-aussie-dollar-horribly-overvalued-2009-12"},"modified":"2009-12-17T15:54:00","modified_gmt":"2009-12-17T20:54:00","slug":"morgan-stanley-the-commodity-currencies-will-get-crushed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/87118","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley: The Commodity Currencies Will Get Crushed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Which currencies might have the most to lose should the dollar-bounce continue?<\/p>\n<p>According to Morgan Stanley&#8217;s currency team, two major commodity-backed currencies, the Australian Dollar and Brazilian Real, appear particularly overvalued against the dollar right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Spyros Andreopoulos:<\/span> BRL remains heavily overvalued against the USD: even if our models are somewhat slow to incorporate the improved fundamental outlook for the currency stemming from the recent oil finds and the China pull, an overvaluation of 34% against the USD suggests that BRL looks stretched at current levels. (The China pull argument may also apply to AUD.)<\/p>\n<p>Even though their valuation is based on rather opaque econometric models likely subject to substantial error, these are at least guidelines:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b2a98790000000000cc2666&amp;maxX=500\" border=\"0\" alt=\"ms\" width=\"500\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b2a96010000000000513217\" border=\"0\" alt=\"ms\" width=\"500\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/static.businessinsider.com\/~~\/f?id=4b2a96100000000000d00551\" border=\"0\" alt=\"ms\" width=\"500\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>(Via Morgan Stanley, FX Fair Values, Spyro Andreopoulos, 17 December 2009)<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/morgan-stanley-aussie-dollar-horribly-overvalued-2009-12#comments\">Join the conversation about this story &#187;<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>See Also:<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/long-norway-short-gold-2009-12\">How To Hate The Dollar And Short The Gold Hype At The Same Time<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/bernanke-the-dollar-carry-trade-bubble-is-only-a-problem-if-the-economy-gets-weak-again-2009-12\">Bernanke: The Dollar Carry Trade Bubble Is Only A Problem If The Economy Gets Weak Again<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/china-is-unloading-us-dollars-rapidly-2009-12\">China&#8217;s Dumping Of The Dollar Has Begun<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/feeds.feedburner.com\/~r\/TheMoneyGame\/~4\/16WhcFrt9Q4\" height=\"1\" width=\"1\"\/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Which currencies might have the most to lose should the dollar-bounce continue? According to Morgan Stanley&#8217;s currency team, two major commodity-backed currencies, the Australian Dollar and Brazilian Real, appear particularly overvalued against the dollar right now.&nbsp; Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Spyros Andreopoulos: BRL remains heavily overvalued against the USD: even if our models are somewhat slow to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87118","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87118"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87118\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87118"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87118"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87118"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}