{"id":96615,"date":"2009-12-14T15:04:00","date_gmt":"2009-12-14T20:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27954921.post-9137625769345227939"},"modified":"2009-12-14T15:17:36","modified_gmt":"2009-12-14T20:17:36","slug":"expert-lithium-ion-batteries-will-help-hybrids-more-than-electric-cars-tnr-v-czx-v-wlc-v-li-v-rm-v-clq-v-sqm-fmc-roc-avl-to-cce-v-quc-v-f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/96615","title":{"rendered":"Expert: Lithium Ion Batteries Will Help Hybrids More Than Electric Cars TNR.v, CZX.v, WLC.v, LI.v, RM.v, CLQ.v, SQM, FMC, ROC, AVL.to, CCE.v, QUC.v, F"},"content":{"rendered":"

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We have a different view<\/span><\/a><\/strong> on the market perspective for full Electric Cars BEV, Plug-In Hybrids PHEV and Hybrids HEV, but here we have an important confirmation from a very conservative angle on development of EVs’ market, that battery technology is migrating into Lithium-ion space even in Hybrid sector.<\/div>\n
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HybridCars:<\/strong><\/div>\n

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Expert: Lithium Ion Batteries Will Help Hybrids More Than Electric Cars<\/span><\/a><\/strong>
Published December 14, 2009<\/div>\n

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It\u2019s commonly reported that lithium ion batteries will usher in a new era of electric cars<\/a> and plug-in hybrids<\/a>. Not exactly, says John German, the engineer who literally wrote (or at least edited) the book about hybrid cars<\/a> for the Society of Automotive Engineers. After 11 years at Honda, German now serves as a senior fellow for the International Council for Clean Transportation. In an interview with HybridCars.com, German said the next wave of lithium ion batteries will not significantly reduce the cost of electric cars, but they could make conventional hybrids ubiquitous.
<\/span>In German\u2019s view, the chief benefit of new lithium ion batteries is their greatly enhanced power capabilities\u2014the rate at which energy can go in and out of the battery. \u201cBut they don\u2019t store any more energy than the current lithium ion batteries do,\u201d said German, \u201cWhat we are looking at is a battery which is perfect for conventional hybrids.\u201d
HybridCars.com: Why will the new breed of lithium ion batteries be a bigger benefit to conventional hybrids rather than plug-in hybrids and electric cars?
German: The next generation of lithium ion batteries will reduce the cost of the battery pack for conventional hybrids, but they\u2019re not going to reduce the cost of the battery pack for plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles. In effect, these batteries will increase the cost differential between conventional hybrids and plug-in hybrids. That\u2019s why they\u2019re not going to create a plug-in hybrid market, because they\u2019re actually going to make it harder for plug-in hybrids to compete with conventional hybrids.
Walk me through the energy and power requirements for the two different categories of vehicles.
For plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, it\u2019s all about the range. You need a certain amount of energy to drive a certain distance [before needing to recharge]. That\u2019s independent of the battery chemistry. If the new lithium ion chemistry doesn\u2019t store any more energy than your old lithium ion chemistry, then you need just as much battery to drive that distance.
And with conventional hybrids, you don\u2019t need nearly as much energy.
The battery packs in all existing hybrids, up until the new BMW ActiveHybrid 7<\/a>, are oversized. The reason they\u2019re oversized is that with nickel metal hydride [the technology used in today\u2019s hybrids], you\u2019re limited in how fast you can take energy in and out of a battery without causing significant deterioration. So these batteries are not sized for the energy [storage] requirements. They are sized for the power requirements, so they can deliver enough power without significant deterioration. As a consequence, they hold a lot more energy than they really need to.
With the new high-power lithium ion batteries, they can cut them down to their actual energy requirements and still get all the power they need.
So, with the new lithium ion batteries, the difference in cost between conventional hybrids and gas-powered vehicles could come in line?
In another 10 to 15 years, we should be at the point where the mainstream customer, the average customer, will accept the cost of a hybrid system.
Meaning, maybe a couple of hundred dollars more than a conventional car?
Well, $1,000 to $1,500 more. There\u2019s enough benefit for mainstream customers to accept it.
How rapid will the transition from nickel metal hydride to lithium ion batteries be for conventional hybrids?
It\u2019s a function of sales volume. The current generation of lithium ion batteries is not any cheaper than nickel metal hydride. And they\u2019re not proven. With a lot of the lithium ion chemistries, just sitting and doing nothing in hot weather will degrade the battery pack. The batteries will not last as long in Phoenix as Minneapolis. There\u2019s risk with durability and reliability.
In lower volume applications, new hybrids just coming out, carmakers know they\u2019re not going to be able to capture larger market share right away. So they\u2019re going to be lithium ion batteries starting tomorrow [See <\/span>Mercedes S400 Hybrid<\/span><\/a> and BMW ActiveHybrid 7]. You don\u2019t have a large volume, so your risk is minimized and you\u2019ve gained experience. It\u2019s going to be cheaper in the long run, and you want to gain experience. So, you\u2019ll see very few new hybrids using nickel metal hydride.
<\/span>The problem is with high volume existing hybrids. When you\u2019re selling hundreds of thousands of Priuses<\/a> globally every year, if you encounter something wrong with the lithium ion battery pack, your exposure is enormous. The high volume hybrid applications are going to go to lithium ion last. But even the high volume ones will get there by 2015 or so.
What\u2019s your feeling about the cost per kilowatt-hour of lithium ion batteries? What are they now and where do they need to be?
I thought they were $1,000 per kilowatt-hour, but I\u2019m hearing that it may be more like $700. It\u2019s hard to determine the long-term price potential. They shouldn\u2019t have much trouble getting down to about $320 per kilowatt-hour. It\u2019s going to take a while, but with higher volumes and better production methods, $320 is achievable in the 2018 to 2020 time frame.
The real question is how low can you drive it. I\u2019ve seen some people suggest that the lowest could be $250 to maybe $175.
At $250, doesn\u2019t mean that plug-in cars become affordable?
No. At $250 per kilowatt-hour, the pay back is roughly similar to the hybrid vehicles of about five years ago. So there\u2019s your market, about 3 percent.
If lithium ion batteries bring the plug-in market to 2 or 3 percent, where will conventional hybrids go?
I\u2019ll stick my neck out and say that by sometime around 2025 or 2030, conventional hybrids will be over 70 percent of the market.
And a fairly steady ramp up from now until then?
Yes. It will be a curve. Something like a doubling of hybrid sales every three to five years. There\u2019s no doubt in my mind that by 2030 that hybrids will be in more than half the vehicles sold in the US. I would be astounded if they weren\u2019t. By 2020, I would say we\u2019d be somewhere in the 10 – 15 percent range.
And President Obama\u2019s goal for 1 million plug-in hybrids by 2015?
Not a chance.”<\/span><\/div>\n
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We have a different view on the market perspective for full Electric Cars BEV, Plug-In Hybrids PHEV and Hybrids HEV, but here we have an important confirmation from a very conservative angle on development of EVs’ market, that battery technology is migrating into Lithium-ion space even in Hybrid sector. HybridCars: Expert: Lithium Ion Batteries Will […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-96615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96615\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mereja.media\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}