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Age-driven regression is an unfortunate fact of life. Certain parts drag southward, basic functions slow and the taste for Metamucil becomes insatiable. Unless your name is Mariano Rivera(notes), Bobby Abreu(notes) or Marisa Tomei, skills deterioration is unavoidable and inevitable.
Just ask the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano(notes).
Over the past two seasons, the North Side’s $136 million hopscotch enthusiast has been unable to stiff arm Father Time. Hampered by myriad injuries, he’s failed to surpass 480 at-bats in consecutive seasons. Even when healthy, erratic efforts have become routine. He’s been baffled by offspeed pitches – only Ryan Howard(notes) saw more breaking stuff last season – ran less and compiled long fruitless stretches. Last season’s dismal line (.241-20-55-64-9) says it all. As a result, former fantasy lovers renounced their adoration for the slugger. Presumably, so did his road beef.
The former 40-40 man, heavily discounted in drafts this season, was sold at a fraction of what he cost just two years ago ($8 AAV). In standard serpentine drafts, he was a citizen of McPlayland, selected slightly above Andrew McCutchen(notes) and Nate McLouth(notes) (86.61 ADP). Clearly, Soriano cynicism has replaced optimism in the minds of the masses. And wealthy Cubs fans.
Still, the question remains: Based on his illustrious past, is there hope for the 34-year-old to regain his All-Star form?
In a phrase: hell no.
Though he claims physically he’s "feeling very good" – he ran smoothly from first-to-third on a hit-and-run Wednesday – Soriano’s absent swagger is a bit concerning. In previous seasons, he entered spring training cocky and confident. This year, he was more reserved and focused, determined to iron out the kinks in his flawed swing. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but because of his advanced age and eroding skill set, it doesn’t exactly conjure perky thoughts.
The presence of hitting sensei Rudy Jaramillo, who is very familiar with his pupil’s swing from their days in Texas, definitely helps. However, Fonzy’s widening walk:strikeout disparity (0.34 BB/K in ’09), evaporating bat speed, dwindling power and decreasing urge to steal are major deterrents. Unless you’re lapping up the Old Style, a very average season is likely in the works. Remember, OF3s in 12-team mixed leagues averaged .265-19-68-70-9 a season ago. His shift from leadoff to sixth should bolster his RBI total, but the end-game line will likely be only slightly better than the norm. Marlon Byrd(notes) may actually yield more value. Garrett Jones(notes), Kyle Blanks(notes) and Drew Stubbs(notes) will too.
Since he’s more or less still a brand name, owners who grabbed him off the clearance rack should strongly contemplate shopping him if he posts respectable numbers in April. With two hits in two games, he could be off on the right foot.
Still, because of the negative factors working against him, Soriano won’t age gracefully.
Fearless Forecast: 485 at-bats, .259 BA, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 70 R, 9 SB
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CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Adam LaRoche(notes), Ari, 1B (57 percent-owned, dropped in 3,500-plus Y! leagues this week): Rubbing too many elbows with human blow torch Mark Reynolds(notes), the elder LaRoche, a notorious slow starter (career .190 BA in April), has uprooted cacti and displaced small vermin with six strikeouts in 12 at-bats. He’s also failed to register a hit. Batting cleanup in a solid Arizona lineup, he will eventually come around. Sandwiched between muscle men Justin Upton(notes) and Reynolds will inevitably lead to an increase in punishable pitches. Once he rounds into form a .275-25-100-85 season is likely. Don’t be a knee jerk.
3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler
Roy Oswalt(notes), Hou (4/11 vs. Phi, 85 percent-owned): Terribly mundane compared to what he used to be, Oswalt is an unexciting starter on a bland Astros team which was recently swept by San Francisco. Though he’s still fantasy serviceable, the former power ace, who tossed six innings (3 ER, 3:2 K:BB, L) on Opening Day, could get spanked by the power-packed Polancos. In their first two games against the lifeless Nationals, the Phills scored 19 runs. Consider alternatives on Sunday. (i.e. Scott Feldman(notes) (vs. Sea, 53% owned) or Clay Buchholz(notes) (at KC, 43% owned)).
SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s lucky bastards one decimal place at a time
Fausto Carmona(notes), Cle (25 percent-owned): Tabbed a rebound candidate by many self-proclaimed gurus, the inconsistent Indian delivered an admirable effort in his first 2010 start. Or did he? Wednesday’s line against the Sox was both terrific and terrible (6 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 1 K, W). Walks have been a bugaboo for Carmona since his breakout campaign in ’07 (5.12 BB/9 past two seasons). Combine that with an uncharacteristic number of fly-balls allowed (seven on Wednesday), and he was extremely fortunate to escape with a quality start. If his command continues to be unwieldy, inflated ERA/WHIP numbers will surface.
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Image Courtesy of US Presswire