Author: Brad Evans

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or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter. And click here to follow Roto
Arcade on Facebook.

Panic on the streets
of Chicago.
Panic on the streets
of Wrigleyville.
I wonder to myself.
Could life ever be
sane again?

No blessed DJ who constantly fills the airwaves with "Go Cubs Go!"
should feel safe walking North Side streets.

The Cubs, inching their way to another year of World Series futility, are
quickly losing pace behind the punchless Cardinals and surprising Reds in the
NL Central. Three games under .500, their seesaw performance has squelched fan
optimism and transformed Lou Piniella into an expletive-spewing Santa Claus.
And it’s not even June.

Several reasons dominate Chicago’s
disparaging play. Terrible middle relief, defensive miscues (Soriano!!!) and an
occasionally slumberous offense are just a few. But one individual
deserves far more responsibility for the organization’s latest demise – Aramis Ramirez(notes).

Entering the season, the respected third baseman was
expected to be an infield cornerstone. His consistent returns combined with his
prime age and entrenched RBI-collecting spot in an above average lineup boded
well for the two-time All-Star. His fantasy reputation was destined to be
upheld. However, an epic slump to begin 2010 has left a very bitter taste (No,
it’s not the Old Style). Due to the organization’s urgency to win, trade rumors
involving Mike Lowell have even surfaced. Two months ago those whispers were
unthinkable.

Through 40 games (156 at-bats), fantasy’s "Top Kill" is
batting a sickening .160 with four homers 20 RBI and 15 runs. Currently he
ranks No. 47 at his position in the Y! game, behind such perennial Supermen as
Willy Aybar(notes), Adam Rosales(notes) and Jamey Carroll(notes). Now nursing a bothersome thumb
injury, the cold corner’s chances for a rebound are becoming increasingly
hopeless. Though he is slated to return to action by Saturday, a two-week
mental vacation might be the best medicine.

Unlike some slumping players, pinpointing the source of
Ramirez’s troubles is relatively easy. Examining his profile, an extreme
upswing in strikeouts (0.35 BB/K) and fly-ball percentage (0.40 GB/FB) clearly
explain the prolonged drought. Strangely, he’s made more contact on outside
and less on wheelhouse offerings, which is atypical of most hitters.
Often, the underperforming will jab weakly at offspeed junk outside the zone. For
the maligned Cub, just the opposite has occurred. Inside fastballs, which he’s
historically crushed, have baffled him. Renowned hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo
believes the necessity to perform combined with timing issues have caused the
malfunction. From ESPN Chicago:

Ramirez has been a little too quick at times, rushing to
swing at pitches outside his comfort zones. Is it because he’s overanxious,
trying too hard, having trouble with pitch recognition or feeling a need to
"cheat" to catch up with the hard stuff? No one has been able to
solve that Sudoku puzzle.

"It’s basically the same thing," Jaramillo said. "His timing
is off, and he’s not letting the ball get deep enough [in the strike
zone]."

Jaramillo refers to that phenomenon as "backing the ball up." The
precious milliseconds sacrificed through excessive jumpiness can mean the
difference between a productive at-bat and a lost cause.

"When you stay square and back the ball up, it allows you to make a
good decision," Jaramillo said. "It’s something he has to work out as
he goes. It can be mechanical, it can be mental, or it can be both."

Ramirez claims he’s seeing the ball fine, but right now, he’s swinging at olives
with a toothpick. Until his thumb and cerebral strains fully heal, he’ll
continue to roundhouse owner midsections.

Still, this is a buyer’s market. He’s
an established commodity who’s historically stumbled out of the gates. In
April/May his career average is .264. After June 1, it’s .291. July though
September are usually his best power months (HR per 18.1 at-bats). Sunnier days
are on the horizon.

The 79-percent owned Ramirez may be the boy with the thorn in his side. But
as David Ortiz(notes) owners can attest, patience should replace panic when debating
dealing proven players.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 368
at-bats, .281 BA, 20 HR, 78 RBI, 67 R, 1 SB

—

CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in competitive Yahoo! leagues.

Jose Lopez(notes), Sea,
1B/2B/3B (48-percent owned): The versatile Mariner has remained out to sea
for much of the season.  His .214
BA with just one homer and 16 RBI is in Ramirez’s ballpark. Another tortoise of
sorts, Lopez is a notorious slow starter. Recall last season in April/May he
tallied a bland .229 BA, five homers, 26 RBI and 21 runs. Overall, his
contact and batted ball profiles are in line with career averages which points
to a turnaround in the near future. If a Lopez owner is wallowing in the
basement, fire a lowball offer. This week he was shipped for Kerry Wood(notes), Gordon
Beckham(notes) and Raul Ibanez(notes) in one-for-one Y! league trades.

3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler

Matt Cain(notes), SF (5/28
vs. Ari, 95 percent-owned): Based on past performance, Cain probably
doesn’t relish snake exhibits at the local zoo. The powerful Diamondbacks have
routinely injected venom into the pitcher’s bloodstream. Last season in four
starts, San Fran’s most unsupported starter notched a 5.16 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and
one win against the division rival. Arizona’s
whiff-happy ways suggest Cain could total admirable strikeout numbers, but his
walks proneness coupled (3.34 BB/9) with a .255 BABIP and skyward-leaning GB/FB
(0.86) are tough to ignore. Keep in mind A.J. Hinch’s club is the current
NL pacesetter in runs. Fangless they are not. 

SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time

Jeff
Niemann(notes), TB, SP (79-percent owned): Our
love for The Kraken is well-documented. We spewed over 1,000 words of hyperbole
back in March predicting 2010 would be his breakthrough campaign. So far, the
prognostication has been spot on. Niemann is the 23^rd-most valuable
starter in fantasy according to Baseball Monster. Still his 4.04 FIP and very
fortunate .244 BABIP imply an ERA spike is forthcoming. No monster, no matter
how tentacled, can maintain a 14.9 line-drive percentage over an entire season.
Because the Rays boast a juggernaut offense and marvelous bullpen, he’ll likely
finish with 15-20 wins, but an ERA closer to 4.00, not 3.00, should be expected.
Take a profit.

—

Image courtesy of the AP

Want to slam the Noise for his Clayton Kershaw(notes)
analysis or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter. And click here to follow Roto
Arcade on Facebook.

Mention the word "platoon" during a light
conversation with a fantasy owner and the mood will instantly darken. Not even a
sudden topic change to Erin Andrews’ erotic bedroom dance could rectify the
moment.

Outside possibly "Sizemore" there is no word that elicits
more disgustful feelings in the virtual game’s vocabulary. After all, timeshare
players like Andres Torres(notes), Marcus Thames(notes) and Xavier Nady(notes) – though useful in "only"
formats – aren’t exactly stimulating to the common mixed leaguer.

However, Cincinnati’s
Jonny Gomes(notes) is challenging the widely accepted stigma.

Thus far, the colorful veteran has amassed attention-grabbing
totals. Over 130 at-bats, he’s tallied a .285-6-27-23-1 line, an output which checks
in at No. 39 among outfielders according to Baseball Monster well ahead of
notable names Matt Holliday(notes), Carlos Lee(notes), Adam Lind(notes) and teammate Jay Bruce(notes).

Since he was schooled at the Dave Kingman Academy of Free
Swinging (28.3 K%), a BA regression back to the career norm (.244 BA) should be
expected. He likely won’t finish north of .280. The missing "h" in
his first name says it all.

But Gomes’ muscle is very real.

Because he’s equipped with a strong, uppercut swing (0.52
GB/FB ratio) he could flirt with 30 homers playing half his games in the Great
American Bandbox. His increase in outside contact rate, aggressive plate approach
and RBI-friendly spots in Dusty Baker’s order support the forecast. If he
maintains his current pace, he will finish shy of the projected long-ball ceiling,
but 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs are nothing to scoff at. That’s production
similar to what popular commodities Ryan Ludwick(notes) and Brad Hawpe(notes) achieved last
season. In this Jose Bautista(notes)-crazed season, anything is possible.

Despite routine days off, the 29-year-old credits feeling
locked in for the sudden surge. From MLB.com:

"I’m seeing the ball pretty good," Gomes said.
"It’s still early and Laynce Nix(notes) and I have been platooning. So, our
at-bats are kind of low right now and our average is going to fluctuate with a
few hits here and there. But I’m just seeing the ball and working pretty hard
with our hitting coach Brook Jacoby, who’s a real good fit for me and he knows
my swing pretty well and I’ve been working hard with him."

After being hindered by injury and inconsistency while in Tampa, it’s no surprise
Gomes has finally blossomed at a different address. The man, who’s cheated
death twice and possibly a third time after he exuberantly slammed Bud Light
from Dioner Navarro’s presumably tainted cup when the Rays clinched the AL pennant in ’08, is amazingly resilient.

On a team loaded with a number of statistical marvels (Joey
Votto(notes), Brandon Phillips(notes) and Scott Rolen(notes)) and hyped youngsters (Bruce and Drew
Stubbs(notes)), it’s understandable why the 17-percent owned outfielder is still doing
backstrokes in many free agent pools. However, for owners who can see past the
split situation, he could be a deep league difference maker. And a key reason why
Mr. Redlegs might bust a stitch come October.

Another monster month similar to May (.343-4-15-14-1) and
the Garden Gomes won’t remain beneath the surface much longer.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 313 at-bats, .258 BA, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 50 R, 4 SB 

Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 30 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Eric Hinske(notes), Atl, 1B/3B/OF
(seven-percent owned): Due to his multi-positional eligibility, the
well-traveled commodity is a contortionist of sorts. To deep leaguers,
considerable flexibility is invaluable. Earning regular time in left due to
Melky Cabrera’s(notes) mundane play; he’s hit .391 with four homers 12 RBI and nine
runs this month. The veteran has an unsustainable .423 BABIP, which means the
.300 BA won’t last long. However, his power is legit. Recall in ’08, he clubbed
20 homers in just 381 at-bats with the Rays. Owners searching for a short-term
fix at CI or OF should give the 32-year-old an audition.

Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.

P.J. Walters(notes), StL (5/27
at SD, one-percent owned): For those who think boxing a mutant kangaroo
is a riskless gamble, the recently recalled prospect is immediately acquirable.
Prior to being recalled, the 25-year-old finesse righty dominated PCL opponents.
In 18.2 innings with Triple-A Memphis
he totaled an impressive 0.48 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 11.38 K/9 over three starts.
Similar to LA’s John Ely(notes), Walters doesn’t possess overpowering stuff. Instead,
he relies heavily on offspeed junk – his change rates as one of the
organization’s best – to miss bats and coax weak contact.  Because Dave Duncan could turn water into
wine and based on San Diego’s
offensive shortcomings (.243 team BA, 4.2 runs/game), the rookie is a
roll-of-the-dice start which could pay a handsome profit. 

Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.

Joaquin Benoit(notes), TB
(one-percent owned): Storming back with a vengeance after going under the knife to
repair a torn rotator cuff in January ’09, the reliever has shined as a Ray.
Working in high leverage situations, he has punched out 14 in nine innings with
just two walks. Dan Wheeler(notes) and Grant Balfour’s(notes) struggles as setup men
in the recent past has left a bitter taste in Joe Maddon’s mouth, opening
the door for Benoit. Though his GB/FB ratio is a bit sky-heavy (0.44) and 7.1
line-drive rate will inflate, the former starter’s increased fastball velocity
and effective change are certainly attractive. Toss Nelson Cruz’s(notes) body double
a flotation device in 12-team and deeper leagues. 

—

Image courtesy of the AP

Just one month ago, Corey Hart’s(notes) fantasy value needed
machine assistance to breathe. The once cherished outfielder, plagued by massive
swoons and general inconsistency, had played his way into a well-defined
platoon with Jurassic Jim Edmonds(notes). Third stringer Jody Gerut’s(notes) improbable cycle
May 8 in Arizona
threatened to wrest away additional at-bats. Patience for the 28-year-old in
both fantasy and reality was quickly wearing thin.

But, naturally, he "Never Surrendered."

Roughly two weeks later, Hart has stormed back. Though
collectively the Brewers, who’ve dropped nine of 10, have been Miller Lite in
many facets of the game, the lanky right-fielder isn’t to blame. Netting
everyday at-bats with Edmonds
on the shelf, he’s exploded blasting six homers with 11 RBI since May 15. His
long-ball burst has temporarily recaptured value lost.

Two seasons ago, Hart, coming off his second consecutive
20-20 campaign, was an early round darling. Pundits and casual players alike
expected the statistically balanced commodity to flirt with 30-30 greatness. At that
time, many shortsightedly labeled him a poor man’s Grady Sizemore(notes). However,
after a gut-wrenching ’09, many dismissed his two-year run as nothing more than
a McLouth-esque anomaly.

However, based on his recent power streak owners should wash
the bitter taste from their mouths, even in 12-team mixed leagues. Under the
hood, his stark improvement versus offspeed junk, particularly over the outer
portion, is directly responsible for his growth in walks percentage. And, presumably,
the homer spike.

Because of his increased choosiness at the dish, Hart is
beating once again.

•Evidently, Scott Rolen(notes) doesn’t realize he’s supposed to be
one groin pull from the nursing home. The oft-injured hot corner tagged two
round-trippers (Nos. 9 and 10) against intrastate rival Cleveland. He’s now
only third to Ty Wigginton(notes) and Mark Reynolds(notes) for most homers by a third baseman
this season. Incredibly the 17-year vet is owned in just 38 percent of Y!
leagues. Due to his excellent contact rates and previous power history, a
return to the 25-30 HR plateau is achievable. Just imagine if he played his
entire career on grass.

•Zack Greinke(notes) owners are officially uncomfortably numb after
the reigning Cy Young winner’s latest debacle. Over 3.1 IP, he was spanked for
seven earned (9 H, 1 K, 0 BB). His basic characteristics (K/BB, BB/9, BABIP)
remain strong, but digging deeper alarming signs are everywhere. Entering
Sunday, opponents had applied bat to ball on outside offerings 18.3 percent
more often than a season ago. That combined with a slight decrease in fastball
velocity along with an uptick in fly-ball percentage has those who shelled out big bucks for his services understandably concerned. Until he starts
missing more bats, occasional rocky performances are very possible. Stock up
on the Beam.

•Owners in dire straits for suitable outfielders should pay
close attention to Cleveland’s
Trevor Crowe(notes). The switch-hitter, who has some BA and steals upside – he swiped
28 bags at the Double-A level in ’07 – is 12-for-37 with five runs, a homer,
seven RBI and three steals on the season. With Sizemore and Asdrubal Cabrera(notes)
sidelined, he should remain a fixture atop the Indians lineup over at least the
next couple weeks. You’re not dropping proven talent for him, but the
one-percent owned leadoff man is a player of interest in deeper formats.

•Strange happenings galore dominated the "rivalry"
game between the White Sox and Marlins. Freddy Garcia(notes) and Randy Williams(notes) were
feeling overly generous yielding a combined five homers. The Toy Cannon, Cody
Ross(notes), eclipsed the outfield wall twice. The diminutive outfielder now has 24
RBI on the season, one more than Adam Lind(notes). Meanwhile, Josh Johnson(notes) who earned
his fifth win of the season, failed to record a strikeout over six spotless
innings. It was the first time in his career he did not K a single batter in a
start.

•Unknown just a handful of days ago, John Axford(notes) earned his
first save of the season. Closing the door wasn’t easy as he gave up three
hits, a walk and an earned run, but his three Ks shows how lethal his stuff can be.
As Behrens noted earlier Sunday, the flamethrower has the opportunity to become
Ken Macha’s primary end game option. However, baseball’s all-time saves leader,
Trevor Hoffman(notes), is convinced he has another life left. The 42-year-old, who
marched alongside George Washington at Valley Forge,
pitched a scoreless eighth on Sunday. If you haven’t already, grab Axford
immediately in mixed leagues.

•Baltimore
closer Alfredo Simon(notes) strained a hamstring after attempting to cover first base.
He is expected to miss at least the next few days. Desperate – and we mean
DESPERATE – saves seekers should employ Cla Meredith(notes) pronto. The righty, who’s
equipped with very pedestrian stuff, has a 5.14 ERA and 4.50 K/9 on the season.
He does coax plenty of weak contact, but his struggles historically with the
long-ball labels him unreliable. The side-armer served up a walk-off homer to Josh Willingham(notes) on Sunday. Pick him up at your own risk.

QUICK HITTERS: Though it wasn’t a clean save, Kerry Wood(notes)
slammed the door for the first time this season. He allowed one hit and struck
out one. More tumultuous outings are sure to follow in the future. … Roy Hallady
is mortal after all. The seemingly invincible starter allowed six earned over
5.2 innings pitch. Backups Greg Dobbs(notes) and Juan Castro(notes), who each committed
costly errors, did the multi-time All-Star no favors. The rough outing was only
the second time since 2007 Halladay had surrendered a minimum of six earned in
a game. … Widely available base burglar Corey Patterson(notes) stole his fourth base in
just 12 games. In terms of BA, he will be a ball buster, but the speed is very
real. Frankly, he’s on the same plane as Nyjer Morgan(notes). … In terms of pop, Gaby
Sanchez(notes) is Todd Helton(notes)-light, but after Sunday’s 3-for-5, three RBI, two run,
one SB performance against hated interleague rival Chicago, he’s on pace for a
15-70-80 campaign.… Armageddon is just around the corner. Carlos Silva(notes) extended
his record to 6-0 winning in Texas.
His offspeed emphasis, sharp command and terrific groundball rate arrows to
continued success. A repeat of ’07 is looking more and more likely. … Ben Zobrist(notes),
batting in the catbird seat for only the 12th time in his career, jacked homer
No. 2. He finished with three hits, two RBI and two runs on the day. A power
binge is well underway. … Toronto’s
Bash Brothers, Jose Bautista(notes) and Edwin Encarnacion(notes), each went yard yet again. Bautista
now has 38 RBI on the season, the third-highest mark in the majors. The Noise wonders if Adam B still considers him (profane)ty.

Finally on a somber note. Jose Lima(notes) died suddenly from an
apparent heart attack in Los Angeles. He was just 37.

Whether you loved or loathed his animated antics, fans would
mutually
agree the pitcher was brimming with life. His terrific back-to-back
stellar
seasons in ’98 and ’99 won many fantasy owners championships, the Noise
included.

Though we’re still convinced he actually conversed with
shrunken
spirits in his glove, the former All-Star’s colorful approach to the game and charismatic personality won’t be forgotten. Long live Lima Time!

—

Images courtesy of the AP

Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides
head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable
matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading,
keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves,
unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature’s influence.

When Colorado’s
Jeff Francis(notes) entered the league in 2004 he was ranked ahead of contemporary fantasy superstars Josh Johnson(notes), Adam Wainwright(notes) and teammate
Ubaldo Jimenez(notes). Named Baseball America’s
Minor League Player of the Year that season, the southpaw was destined to
develop into a franchise cornerstone. Equipped with a devastating change,
filthy slider and deceptive high-80s fastball, the hyped prospect certainly had
the stuff to live up to mammoth expectation.

As with any elite pitching prospect not named Strasburg (We
can only assume success will come easily for Washington’s alien life-form), Francis’
transition to the big league grind was arduous. Though he won 14 games in his
first full season in ’05, his 5.68 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 1.83 K/BB left a lot to
be desired.

After a positive step forward in ’06, the Canadian import
finally took a major developmental leap during the Rockies’
World Series season. During that memorable campaign hitters transformed into flashing
dots and the youngster Pac-Man. He won 17 games, notched his best K/9 to date
(6.90), sliced down the free passes (2.63 BB/9) and devoured innings (215). His
growing command combined with an excellent groundball rate pointed to future vibrant campaigns.

Then the injury imp sharpened its teeth.

Francis, who underachieved throughout the ’08 season,
succumbed to the sinister creature’s bite in September suffering a significant
shoulder setback. After a brief non-surgical rehab attempt, he
eventually opted to go under the knife the following February, ending his ’09
season before it even started.

Historically the chances of pitchers returning to a
formidable level after shoulder reconstruction are minimal. Erik Bedard(notes) is a
prime example. But, so far, the Noise’s hairier, slightly wealthier twin (see right) has defied the
odds.

Saturday afternoon in Kansas
City, the veteran painted his second straight
masterpiece. Over 6.1 innings, he held the Royals scoreless, surrendering five
hits, two walks with three strikeouts, netting his first win since August 25, 2008.

Yes, he’s faced meek competition (Washington
and Kansas City),
but the former first-round pick appears to have regained his dependable form.
Abandoning his slider and cutter, he’s relied solely on three pitches — 86-89
mph fastball, curve and change — to generate weak contact. The scaled back
repertoire has worked flawlessly. In 13.1 innings, he’s allowed zero homers and
compiled a 1.75 GB/FB ratio.

There are numerous under-owned
commodities more viable than Francis (13-percent owned) wading in free agent
pools in several leagues – Derek Holland(notes) (17-percent) immediately comes to mind. But for
challenged owners looking for a backend difference-maker, the once highly
touted lefty is demanding your attention. Keep in mind he does have plenty of run support and plays in a favorable division. 

Call Francis’ return to respectability just another Colorado comeback.

Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 138 IP, 8 W, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 104 K

QUICK HITTERS
(Tidbits from Saturday’s slate): The Piano Man may soon sing a regretful
tune about Gordon Beckham(notes). After Saturday’s 1-for-2 (two runs, one SB) tally
against the Marlins, he’s hit safely in five of his last eight. Ozzie Guillen
will likely keep the sophomore infielder in the nine-hole until his bat
fully awakens. But once it does, he will almost certainly be reinserted into the two
spot. Pianow’s argument for severing the cord was justified, but Beckham’s
top-flight pedigree will soon resurface…It appears Adam Jones(notes) has finally
emerged from hibernation. Baltimore’s Teddy Ruxpin
smacked his fifth homer of the season, a two-run shot off Washington’s Craig Stammen(notes). He’s homered in
consecutive games and has recorded a hit in nine straight contests…In a
pitcher’s duel featuring Catfish Hunter and Gaylord Perry Gio Gonzalez(notes)
and Matt Cain(notes), the A’s starter bested his interleague archrival hurling eight
shutout innings (2 HA, 1 BB, 5 K). Neo Gio can be a bit erratic, but he’s
quietly undergoing a breakthrough season. Trim down the walks (4.44 BB/9
entering Saturday) and he could develop into a strong mixed league No. 2… 

A bloop single by Juan Castro(notes) in the eighth robbed Daisuke Matsuzaka(notes) of baseball history. The Sox starter dominated powerhouse Philadelphia allowing just one hit with four walks and five Ks. The near milestone was his second quality start in five tries. Dice-K’s air-heavy GB/FB and high walks are a concern, but his unfortunate BABIP and strong K/9 gives him upside…The Mancrush Curse was squelched – at least for one outing. John Ely(notes) continued to save whales and fantasy rosters limiting the Tigers to two earned runs over six innings (8 H, 1 BB, 3 K, W). Do you believe yet?…Brennan Boesch(notes) cracked his fourth homer of the season. Including a run-scoring groundout, he elevated his RBI total to 22, the same number as Justin Upton(notes)…The Edwin Encarnacion(notes) slugfest continued as the third baseman won the heated battle of Edwins taking Jackson deep for a three-run shot. Travis Snider(notes) may lose PT if Easy E and Jose Bautista(notes) continue to touch ’em all…Drew Stubbs’(notes) epic whiffs and Mendoza-hugging BA are an eyesore but he continues to remain productive in other key categories. He became the 13th player this season to eclipse double-digits in steals swiping bags Nos. 10 and 11 against Cleveland. The outfielder is currently on a 15-40 pace. 

PULLS, STRAINS AND REHAB
GAINS (Injury news and notes): Brad Penny’s(notes) "grade 1" lat strain,
likely suffered during his grand salami off Joel Pineiro Friday, has forced the
valuable hurler to the 15-day DL. Rookie P.J. Walters(notes), who’s been untouchable
at Triple-A Memphis
(18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 23K), earns the promotion and should see action
as a starter. On Saturday versus the Angels, he allowed two earned over four
innings with two walks and two Ks. Based on the 25-year-old’s career 1.43 GB/FB
and 8.40 K/9 on the farm, he’s worth a look in NL-only formats…Aramis Ramirez(notes),
who’s seemingly been frozen in carbonite all year, is have difficulty swinging
bat due to a thumb injury. Blame his inglorious Golden Sombrero effort in Texas on the setback…J.A. Happ(notes) threw an encouraging bullpen
session on Friday and could begin a rehab assignment late this week. Charlie
Manuel hopes to have the second-year start back sometime in early June…Miguel
Montero(notes) is approximately two weeks away from activation. The backstop, currently
44-percent owned, is worth snatching up if Mike Napoli’s(notes) BA is crushing your
soul…Jimmy Rollins(notes) should avoid busy streets, raucous clubs and Pet a Lion Day
at the Philly zoo over the next couple weeks. The unlucky shortstop was placed
back on the 15-day DL with a calf strain. The former NL MVP hopes to return
when eligible in two weeks…The world is officially right once again! Eric
Chavez(notes) has fulfilled his yearly destiny. Mr. Glass was placed on the 15-day DL
with girl neck spasms. Rejoice!

DOUBLE DIPPERS

For stream conscious owners
who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you.
Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing
offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological
influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top
double dippers of each week.

Other AL Double Dippers: None

Other NL Double Dippers: Ramon Ortiz(notes), LAD (at ChC, at Col), Kenshin Kawakami(notes), Atl (at Fla, Pit), Brian Burres(notes), Pit (at Cin, at Atl), R.A. Dickey(notes), NYM (Phi, at Mil)

FEAST OR FAMINE?  

Torn between two
stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff
sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam LaRoche(notes)
or Carl Pavano(notes)
is fantasy feast or famine. Stats are for games played through May 22:

—

Image courtesy of the AP

Want to slam the Noise for his Clayton Kershaw(notes)
analysis or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or
less on Twitter. And click
here to follow
Roto Arcade on Facebook.

When
compared to other major sports, baseball is more individualistic. Even the most
casual fans are obsessed with specific player achievement. Cursory questions around
office water coolers typify this common perception:

Did A-Rod go yard today? How many Ks
did Tim Lincecum(notes) rack last night? Milton Bradley(notes) dropped how many F-bombs?

However,
when it comes to pitchers, the game, similar to the rest of the Big Four, is
unmistakably team oriented. Often times, a starter is only as good as the sum
of all parts.

Arizona’s Dan Haren(notes) knows the feeling.

The popular
early round choice, who historically has been one of virtual baseball’s most
dependable April/May performers, has struggled mightily out of the gates.
Though his K/9, which has steadily risen in seven consecutive seasons,
currently stands at a career-best 9.35, his walks and HR/FB percentage are up
significantly. The upswings in those critical areas have inflated his ERA to an
unsavory 4.83.

As with any
pitcher, Haren is responsible for specific statistical outcomes. But Arizona’s historically
bad bullpen is beginning to take a psychological toll on the three-time All-Star.

If the
righty logged long sessions on Freud’s couch, he would likely admit to haunting
nightmares involving late-inning implosions. Chad Qualls(notes) (7.07 ERA) and Juan Gutierrez(notes)
(8.62), among others, are real-life bogeymen. Only cackling circus clowns
riding Great White Sharks are more frightening.

Arizona’s fangless ‘pen is on pace to be one
of the worst in baseball history. Over 109.1 innings, the despicable unit has
posted a 7.90 ERA. That’s over 1.70 average runs allowed more than the
second-worst backend staff in the league, Milwaukee.
If the D-Backs continue at that level of generosity, they will be the first
team since 1930 to finish a season with a bullpen ERA above 7.00. Torched by
the long-ball, walks and wildness, the Snakes, suffice it to say, are Shawn
Kemp slutty.

Cerebrally,
Haren is a train-wreck right now. Outward looks of pain and anguish have become
commonplace. After his last start, definitely one of the worst of his desert
career (4.1 IP, 6 ER at Atl), dejection replaced confidence. From MLB.com:

"That’s as bad as I’ve been as a Diamondback probably,"
Haren said. "I didn’t have it. Nothing behind the ball. I was in trouble
early, couldn’t put anyone away. I was really pitching with the cutter. That
was the only thing I really had. Struggled to throw strikes. I guess it was
just one of those days. It definitely didn’t feel good."

"Warming up in the bullpen, I didn’t feel great, but a
lot of times you go out there and figure it out," Haren said. "I was
really fighting myself. I was looking for stuff that wasn’t there."

Plagued by
plain bad luck (.357 BABIP) and poor end-game support, his overall worth should
be substantially higher. According to Baseball Monster, he’s currently the
67th-best starter in fantasy. Still, the consummate teammate isn’t pointing
fingers at the deserving. Instead, he’s placing blame on himself. From Fox
Sports Arizona:

"I haven’t
pitched well enough. I’ve had my struggles. I’ve given up a lot of hits, more
than I am accustomed to. I’m frustrated. I need to get better," he said.

Team-wide
inconsistencies are obviously battering Haren mentally. Outside two ERA-bashing
starts, he’s pitched extraordinarily well. His increased reliance on cutters
and splitters outside the zone has routinely perplexed hitters. As his 3.56 FIP
implies, a positive ERA correction is imminent, especially toeing the rubber
often against other NL West members. A turnaround should be expected, but keep
in mind the righty has historically stumbled down the stretch. After the break,
he’s notched a career 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (3.23, 1.08 Pre). Regardless of the
track-record, opportunistic owners should pounce.

Yogi Berra
once said, "Ninety percent of the game is half mental." Unless Saul
Rivera(notes), Carlos Rosa(notes) and Cesar Valdez(notes) miraculously reverse the bullpen’s
misfortunes, Haren’s value, specifically in wins, could remain in a straight jacket.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season):
168.1 IP, 9 W, 3.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 161 K

—

CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in a majority of Yahoo! leagues.

Gordon Beckham(notes), ChW,
2B/3B (51-percent owned): Do you believe in sophomore slumps? Beckham has
destroyed more franchises than Megan Fox’s "acting" ability. The multi-positional
infielder has recorded just five two-plus hit games this year. He also has the
same number of extra-base knocks as marooned first baseman Chris Davis(notes). An
increase in strikeout percentage (23.1) and reversal in GB/FB (1.29) are to
blame statistically for Beckham’s swoon. Though he sat the past two games in
favor of mummified veteran Omar Vizquel(notes), Ozzie Guillen remains loyal to the youngster as
his everyday second baseman. Due to his sluggish start, he won’t be able to
meet the lofty year-two expectations pundits placed preseason, but he’s far too talented not to rebound.

3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler

Yovani Gallardo(notes), Mil
(5/22 at Min, 98 percent-owned): Gallardo will likely become the 16th
pitcher in big league history to toss a perfect game. As the peanut gallery
screamed last week, our negative commentary on Ricky Romero(notes) spurred the Jays
starter to the greatest start of his young career. Still, El Chupacabra’s
matchup is unfavorable. The Twins have played brilliantly at home indicative in
their 12-6 record. Ten times they’ve reached the five run mark at Target Field.
Gallardo has walked a tightrope for much of the season, indicative in his
unsettling 4.92 BB/9 and 25.6 line-drive rate. Eventually the free
passes/hard contact combination will come back to haunt him. Though he’s been almost
untouchable on the road (1.86 ERA, 41 K in 29 IP), the peripheries suggest a
rough outing or two are ahead.

SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time

Alfonso Soriano(notes), ChC,
OF (89-percent owned): Thus far, the Noise has been very wrong about Fonzy.
As an adoring Cubs fan, we’re pleased the reverse psychology has worked.
Swinging the bat with renewed vigor, he’s notched a .320 BA with seven homers
and 23 RBI. Still, Soriano has benefited from Lady Luck. His .370 BABIP and
25.3 line-drive percentage are unsustainable. Striking out at a similar clip as
last season and pulling the ball more (0.48 GB/FB), a BA regression to the
.275-.285 range is likely. You have to like his improvement with sliders over
the outer portion, but Soriano isn’t going to establish new career benchmarks
in hits and BA at 34. When it’s all said and done, the difference between him
and Jonny Gomes(notes) might be closer than you think.

—

Image courtesy of the AP

Want to slam the Noise for his Clayton Kershaw(notes)
analysis or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or
less on Twitter. And click
here to follow
Roto Arcade on Facebook.

Setting and following lofty expectations for previously
unseasoned commodities is typically a dangerous practice. Hype trains routinely
derail. Just ask the guy in your league still waiting for the Chris
Davis’(notes) 50-homer binge (The Noise reluctantly raises hand).

But the Dodgers’ John Ely(notes) is one such product worth licking
a poisonous frog to acquire.

In a city known for cultivating buzz, and
Rookie of the Year candidates, frenzied Dodger fans have again reached a
fevered pitch. Move over Fernando and Manny, Elymania has officially arrived in
Hollywood.

Acquired last December from the White Sox in the Juan Pierre(notes) deal, the unheralded prospect has
blown into Los Angeles
with the strength of the Santa Anas. Over 25.2 innings, he’s surrendered a
respectable 10 runs (3.51 ERA) with, get this, a 25:3 K:BB split. Amazingly, Ross Grimsley in 1971 is the only other pitcher since 1952 who has
pitched at least six innings without walking a batter three times in his first
four games.

Naturally, hyperbole has replaced smog over the LA skyline…

Exaggeration No. 1:
Ely was spawned from a chance encounter between Greg Maddux(notes) and Zeus.

For decades Maddux was Picasso with a glove. Despite a pedestrian
fastball, his ability to alter speeds, generate movement and paint corners made
him arguably the greatest pitcher of the 90s. Often it seemed he could hurl a
gerbil into an empty beer bottle from 60 feet away.

Though not nearly as talented, Ely evokes a similar style.
His mid-to-high 80s fastball is often deceptive, especially when combined with
offspeed junk. Many times this young season, he’s humiliated opponents mixing
fastballs with changeups – his best offering (highlights here).

On the farm,
the rookie’s command wasn’t nearly as sharp (4.02 BB/9). Still, many scouts
widely believed he would develop into a control freak. Most probably never figured it would come this quickly.

Exaggeration No. 2:
Not even "The Big One" could rattle Ely’s confidence.

Poised on the mound, the 24-year-old believes he can
dominate anyone. Despite being more of a finesse pitcher, he attacks hitters
aggressively, coaxing abundant weak contact (1.16 GB/FB). From ESPN Los Angeles:

"I’m just out here doing what I have always done,"
Ely said. "I just have complete confidence in what I bring to the table
and the fact that if I execute my pitches the way I want to, I feel like I have
the advantage. That is the way you have to feel every time out. If you doubt
yourself, you’re going to give up hits…"

"We knew what we were getting in Ely, but we never
expected to see him here this quickly," Dodgers general manager Ned
Colletti said. "He knows how to pitch. This is the way he has pitched his
whole life. From my first conversation with him the night we acquired him [on
Dec. 17], you could tell there was a specialness about him."

As a result of his blue collar approach and intense
attitude, Ely simply wins, which he’s done often since his high school days in
suburban Chicago.
Double-digit Ws at the big league level could become routine. 

Exaggeration No. 3:
Ely is so fantastically attractive Alyssa Milano is contemplating divorce.

The smokin’ Dodgers fanatic may not be the only one. Mixed
leaguers who’ve suffered through horrific starts by Josh Beckett(notes), Javier
Vazquez(notes) and Jake Peavy(notes) have understandably sought legal counsel. Because of his
plentiful offensive support, division and pitcher friendly surroundings, there’s
plenty to like. After another mesmerizing start or two, Wooderson wigs (Sans
‘stache, Ely bears a remarkable resemblance) might soon replace Manny dreads in
leftfield. "All right" feelings will surely follow.

However, in this day and age of advanced scouting, opponents
can masterfully outmaneuver even the super, let alone the marginally, talented.
As with any inexperienced player, it’s important to keep in mind turbulence should be expected. But if he continues to exhibit Nolasco-esque accuracy,
banner back of the rotation numbers could be achieved in 12-team mixed leagues.
Right now, he’s slightly more rosterable than fellow NL rookie Mike Leake(notes).

Buying into hype can often lead owners down Disappointment Street.
But Ely’s strong peripherals, above average pedigree and ideal pitching
environment make the eight-percent owned starter well worth the risk.

Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 131 IP, 7 W, 3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 116 K

—

Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Corey Patterson(notes), Bal,
OF (one-percent owned): It seems laughable writing anything positive about Peppermint Patterson. After all, the only accolade he’s recently earned was an All-Handsome Man nomination in 2006. But Seattle’s discarded trash – Patterson failed
to make the team this spring – is treasure for the flightless Orioles.
Baltimore’s latest leadoff man has scorched since his promotion on May 12
going 8-for-26 with two homers, two RBI, eight runs and two steals. Despite a
woeful .291 OBP, Patterson, at 30, still boasts NASCAR wheels. In his last
season with the O’s in ’07, he swiped 37 bags. Owners with a need for speed
should invest, but keep in mind a BA freefall is likely.

Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.

Jason Vargas(notes), Sea
(5/20 vs. Tor, 21-percent owned): Quietly the Seattle southpaw has amassed sensational
numbers. In seven starts, he’s accumulated a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with three
wins. An increased reliance on changeups has led to a spike in K/9 and
groundball percentage. However, his 13.2 line-drive rate and .231 BABIP suggest
an ERA correction will be coming soon. However, don’t expect a regression against the
free-swinging Jays. Collectively, the Canadian Birds are batting .244. Vargas’
stellar stretch of quality starts at Safeco (2.00 ERA, .163 BAA) should
continue.

Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.

Clay Hensley(notes), Fla (three-percent
owned): Playing in front of mosquito hoards instead of fans, the converted starter
has pitched brilliantly in middle relief. Over 21.2 IP, he’s notched an
uncharacteristic 12.05 K/9 (career 6.12). Looking under the hood, his heavy
change/curve use is responsible for the strikeouts jump. Hitters have nibbled
at his offspeed offerings, especially outside, with minimal success. Because
he misses bats and induces numerous groundball outs, spotless performances
could easily continue. He’s the super absorbent Band-Aid to apply to a bleeding staff.  

—

Images courtesy of US Presswire/MLB.com

Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides
head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable
matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading,
keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves,
unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature’s influence. NOTE: Because we’re in the midst of moving our family cross-country to McCainada (Arizona), this week’s Rundown is slightly abbreviated. 

Forget Brooklyn Decker.
Andruw Jones(notes) once again looks good in a bathing suit – and on a fantasy roster.

No longer tempted by complex carbohydrates, the now svelte
Jones, who dropped 15-20 lbs during the offseason, is on the verge of a major
career revival. Not only noticeably thinner, he’s exuded a jovial attitude.
Loose and laidback it appears the 10-time Gold Glove winner has buried, at
least temporarily, his donut-craving likeness Anpoo.

Friday night was a prime example.

The birthday boy celebrated
his 33rd in memorable fashion clubbing two bombs to left, one of which sealed
the Mariners’ fate (see him blow out the candles here). It was his 39th career
multi-homer game and the first time a major leaguer went yard twice on his
birthday since Alex Rodriguez(notes) accomplished the milestone in July ’02. Widely considered deceased by 99.9 percent of the fantasy community
entering the season, his resurrection has been nothing short of amazing. As a result, Sox play-by-play man Hawk Harrelson has tapped into his inner Meg Ryan shouting "Yes!" repeatedly. 

What’s more astonishing: he’s gliding around the bases with
the zeal of a 21-year-old. Over the past seven seasons, the former perennial
20-SB threat has averaged a mere 5.3 swipes per year. This season he already has three.
Because of Ozzie Guillen’s aggressive tactics, double-digit steals are
likely. 

The signs of a turnaround were apparent in spring training.
The 15-year vet entered camp with a hungry attitude, determined to regain the
everyday form that terrorized NL pitchers for years. So far
so damn good. From Chicago beat-writer Bruce Levine:

"I’m really proud of him," Ozzie Guillen said.
"He came [into spring training] with one goal — to play every day. I remember
having a conversation with him. I said, ‘If you swing the bat good I will play
you.’"

Guillen’s growing confidence in Jones as one of the Sox’s
primary RBI threats greatly enhances his virtual value. Over the past couple
games, the shifty manager has slotted Jones into the No. 3 spot. Based on the
immediate rewards gained, it appears he will
stay entrenched there for the foreseeable future. It also means Mark Kotsay(notes),
who entered the season locked in a DH platoon with Jones, will remain firmly
planted on the bench.

It’s understandable why Jones is only currently owned in 16
percent of Y! leagues. Many owners are forever scarred by his Dodger days. Also,
his high strikeout percentage (31.7) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. If the
current trends persist, a final BA around .250, not .290, is a certainty. However, his
fly-ball heavy profile (0.60 GB/FB), reignited bat/legs and steady PT are
nothing to scoff at. Remember, the five-time All-Star averaged 34 homers and
103 RBI from 1998-2007. He will post superb power totals in the smallish Cell.

It may seem unfathomable, but mixed leaguers with outfield
needs should give Jones another long look.

Yes, seriously. 

Fearless Forecast
(Season): 430 at-bats, .257 BA, 29 HR, 86 RBI, 74 R, 12 SB

DOUBLE DIPPERS

For stream conscious owners
who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you.
Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing
offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological
influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top
double dippers of each week.

Other AL Double Dippers: Ian Snell(notes), Sea (at KC, Tex), Kyle Davies(notes), KC (Sea, at TB)

Other NL Double Dippers: Zach Duke(notes), Pit (at Mil, at LAD), Aaron Harang(notes), Cin (at Hou, at StL), Bud Norris(notes), Hou (Cin, at Atl), Kyle Lohse(notes), StL (Atl, Cin), Jon Garland(notes), SD (at Fla, Mil), Oliver Perez(notes), NYM (LAD, at Phi), Jason Hammel(notes), Col (Ari, at SF), John Lannan(notes), Was (at ChC, at Fla), Daniel McCutchen(notes), Pit (at Mil, at LAD)

FEAST OR FAMINE?  

Torn between two
stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff
sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam LaRoche(notes)
or Carl Pavano(notes)
is fantasy feast or famine. Stats are for games played through April 23:

—

Image courtesy of the AP

Want to ridicule the Noise for his Billy Butler
obsession or misguided
projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter. And click here to follow

Roto Arcade on Facebook.

Chaotic feelings in Fantasyland have reached a boiling
point. Planes, losing millions in revenue per day, remain grounded. Hundreds of
inconvenienced passengers are stranded. And digital downloads of bizarro songs by alt-rock yodeler Bjork
have strangely increased.

Jon Lester(notes) has erupted.

Blanketing teams in irremovable ash and soot, the treasured Boston pitcher has
devastated ERA and WHIP totals for all who invested heavy coin in him. In three
forgettable outings he’s failed to produce a quality start, yielding 15 earned
in 16 innings pitched. He’s also issued a disturbing nine walks. Only Mount Marquis
has inflicted more damage.

Owners should’ve noticed the signs. Throughout much of the
spring the popular early round pick grumbled under the surface spewing small
plumes of steam into the Florida
air. Geologists and invested followers with a keen eye for historical trends
predicted this day would come.

Becoming increasingly obvious with each passing year, Lester
apparently doesn’t relish spring. Maybe the southpaw really loathes tulips.
Over 153.1 career innings in April/May, he’s posted a paltry 4.88 ERA and 1.49
WHIP. Frustrated by his downtrodden early season consistency, the rotation
anchor has had difficulty pinpointing the struggles. From the Boston Globe:

"This year I’ve felt better coming into the
season than I have in the past. I don’t know why this has happened,"
Lester said. "I’ve thought about it a lot. If there were something I could
do in the offseason or in spring training, I would do it."

"Obviously you want to start good," he said. "You always want
to get on an early run. The key to pitching is getting into a good rhythm every
five days and keeping it going. If you can do that, the more success you’ll
have."

"When you’re struggling early and struggling and struggling, it’s hard
to get in that rhythm. Everything in sports is the final result. That’s the
whole thing."

Based on the historical record, Lester probably won’t immediately eradicate
his mental demons. Simply, it’s par for the course. Whether physical
limitations or psychological burdens are responsible for the star’s annual
out-of-the-gate stumble isn’t important to the fantasy community. However, how
his performance after June 1 is. It’s over that stretch where he’s cashed in tallying
a career 3.35 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Last season, he was the 15th-most valuable
starter during that span according to Baseball Monster. Due to his
groundball-inducing ways (1.38 GB/FB in ’09) and strong K/9 output (9.96), he
will right the ship soon.

Until Lester’s lava flows cool, the market for his services will continue to
favor the buyer. Impatient owners who’ve discounted him in the past will likely
do it again. Already this week he’s been dished off for Bobby Jenks(notes), Lance
Berkman(notes) and Jason
Bay(notes) in one-for-one Y!
league trades. If someone in your league is shopping the lefty, pounce.

Mount Lester’s rupture has caused irreversible
damage. But inevitably his turbulent side will once again slip into a state of
dormancy.

Fearless Forecast
(full season): 201.1 IP, 14 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 186 K

—

CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Adam Dunn(notes), Was, 1B, OF
(92 percent-owned):  For the
impatient, Dunn’s woeful April has become unbearable. Sharing a toothbrush with
Mr. Mendoza, he has notched a mere nine hits over 47 at-bats (.192 BA) with
only one homer. Prolonged cycles of boom
and bust are the norm for the slugging first baseman. Any player with a career
32.3 strikeout percentage is going to experience an epic drought or three.
Under the surface, the passive-aggressive hitter has been surprisingly patient
totaling 14 walks to 11 strikeouts. He’s also posted an uncharacteristic 77.1
contact percentage. An overly watchful eye and bad timing appear to be the
culprits for his most recent swoon. Once he adjusts, a statistical bonanza will commence. A repeat of
last year’s totals, including BA, is very likely. Buy on the bear.

3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Majority owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler

Max Scherzer(notes), Det
(4/23 at Tex,
66 percent-owned): Our gooey feelings for The Schiznit are well-documented.
Two seasons ago we penned nearly a thousand hyperbolic words on the power
righty several weeks before his major league debut. His blazing fastball, high
strikeout potential and cutie patootie dimples were just so lovable. But
sometimes love can stray. The Rangers’ have snapped out of their initial
offensive funk, totaling 13 runs over two games against the SAWKS. That
combined with the smallish feel of Rangers Ballpark means the whip could crack
on the Tigers starter. His fly-ball leaning peripheries (0.85 GB/FB) and
general good fortune (.270 BABIP) don’t inspire confidence.

SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time

Clayton
Kershaw(notes), LAD, SP (97 percent-owned): Watching
Kershaw vex hitter’s with his nasty 12-to-6 curve is a thing of beauty. The
captivating pitch is the reason why gross expectations have been placed on the
22-year-old for years. However, the unpolished southpaw has resembled Rich
Hill(notes), not Sandy Koufax, so far this season. Yes, his ERA (3.18) and K/9 (10.59)
are heart-throbbing, but his auxiliary numbers paint a very dark picture.
Clasping hands with Lady Luck (.264 BABIP), the youngster has been extremely
fortunate. His wildness (7.94 BB/9) and unsustainable 14.6 line-drive
rate arrow to future ERA inflation. Until batters nibble more on his outside
offerings, free passes will continue to be an issue. As his 5.03 FIP indicates,
the tide could soon turn.     

—

Images courtesy of US Presswire

Want to ridicule the Noise for his Billy Butler(notes) obsession or misguided
projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter.

Roughly 17 months ago St.
Louis rookie Jaime Garcia(notes) laid anesthetized on a
surgeon’s table. His left UCL, stressed from overwork, was in desperate need of
repair. Only a pup at 22, the Cardinals’ most promising pitching prospect had
reached a pivotal crossroads in his young professional career. Optimism turned
to uncertainty …

Jump to the present.

After two brilliant starts, the relative unknown
may soon be mentioned alongside pitching junior heartthrobs Tommy Hanson(notes), Brian Matusz(notes)
and Brett Anderson(notes). The sample size may seem insignificant, but over 13 innings
against two potent offenses (Milwaukee and New York) he’s exhibited
the polish and poise of a cagy veteran surrendering
just one run with 10 strikeouts (highlights versus Brewers/Mets
here).

Many pundits have already brushed off Garcia’s initial effort,
mislabeling it as nothing more than beginner’s luck. Even those close to the
organization have expressed cautious optimism. Still, despite the general
pessimism, the southpaw’s glowing April shouldn’t be ignored. He could be this
year’s Josh Johnson(notes).

Garcia’s rapid recovery is a testament to the advancement of
modern medicine. Thirty years ago a similar injury would’ve promptly ended a
pitcher’s career. Even in the mid-90s, the chances of full Tommy John recovery
stood at approximately 60 percent. At the time, Screech had better odds of
hooking up with Lisa Turtle.

But the former 22nd-round pick has climbed the mountain. Based
on his phenomenal first impression, rumors he received a tendon from Steve
Carlton might actually be true. His expressionless cool and systematic elimination of hitters bears a resemblence. 

On paper, Garcia is a blossoming prodigy. His terrific minor
league strikeout record (8.26 K/9 over 402 IP) combined with his ability to attract weak contact is very
appealing. Though the caboose’s fastball scores average, his offspeed
offerings, particularly his cutter, are downright filthy plus pitches. Corey
Hart(notes) commented earlier this month the kid’s breaking stuff was extremely
"tough to square up." His resulting 63.8 groundball percentage this
season flashes "excitement." Cardinals GM John Mozeliak commented via email Monday the hurler’s striking initial success is primarily due to two
key factors:

"Jaime has always been impressive and adding a slider
has made him even more impressive. The big difference in Jaime is that he has
matured both physically and mentally."

Naturally, questions about Garcia’s projected workload are
unavoidable. In the recent past, pitchers who’ve undergone Tommy John have
typically taken multiple seasons to  recover fully (e.g. Francisco Liriano(notes)).
However, the Cardinals aren’t married to the idea of limiting their fifth starter to a specific
innings cap.

"We don’t have an innings gauge," said Mozeliak.
"We will monitor him and make sure he is provided a safe atmosphere to
learn and grow in, without pushing him too fast."

In all likelihood, Garcia will be lucky to surpass 170
innings. Still, given his marvelous repertoire, placid demeanor and generous run
support, he could be one of the season’s surprise sensations. Having mound
Miyagi (Dave Duncan) around certainly doesn’t hurt. After all, two years ago
the esteemed pitching coach impossibly turned Todd Wellemeyer(notes) into a reliable
starter. And last season he resurrected the nearly deceased career of Joel
Pineiro(notes). The 23-year-old is a less challenging project. 

Overshadowed by Chris Carpenter(notes) and Adam Wainwright(notes), Garcia is
hardly a household name. But sizzling out of the gates, the 18-percent owned hidden
treasure could soon become indispensable in mixed leagues.

Many hungry owners may be preparing to sacrifice useful apendages for Ike Davis(notes), but the St. Louis upstart could be the NL rookie
hoisting the hardware come October.

Fearless Forecast (full
season): 159.1 IP, 11 W, 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 138 K

—

Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 30 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Marlon Byrd(notes), ChC, OF
(24 percent-owned):  When compared to middle digit flasher Milton Bradley(notes), Byrd is Mother Theresa. His
infectious attitude and productive play has been a breath of fresh air on the
North Side. Those who drafted him in the Old Style hazy hours of drafts house
similar feelings. Since April 12, he’s notched four multi-hit games with four
doubles, a homer and six RBI. He’ll be hard-pressed to match last year’s career
numbers playing in the National League, but very useful OF4 or UTIL totals will
likely be accumulated, especially considering his excellent peripheries. An end
line around .290-18-80-65-10 is very possible.

Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.

Livan Hernandez(notes), Was
(4/22 vs. Col, six percent-owned): Consuming week old cashew chicken may
seem less risky than trusting the services of an elderly contact pitcher who’s
posted a morbidly obese ERA since 2008. Both could lead to painful indigestion.
However, in two starts against quality opponents (Milwaukee
and New York),
the former World Series MVP has been surprisingly terrific. Though his
strikeout totals are unsightly, he’s yielded just nine hits and has yet to
allow a run over 16 innings. He also has two wins. Colorado is a formidable offensive club,
averaging 4.6 runs per game. Also, with Ubaldo Jimenez(notes) fresh off a no-no taking
the mound for the Rockies, Livan’s third
straight W could be elusive. But the crafty veteran has been untouchable. Go
ahead. Play with fire. 

Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.

Carlos Villanueva(notes),
Mil (six percent-owned): Collectively, the Brewers staff may be scrapping
the bottom of the barrel. They currently rank near the league bottom in hits
and homers allowed. However, Villanueva has been a bright spot. The righty has
thrown with more power and purpose this season. Over seven innings he’s induced
numerous groundballs and posted an otherworldly 14.14 K/9. Leaning more heavily
on his curve, the 26-year-old may be reaching maturation. He, not LaTroy
Hawkins(notes), could be next in line if Trevor Hoffman’s(notes) bones finally liquefy.

—

Image courtesy of US Presswire

Just two seasons ago the Angels’ Ervin Santana(notes) was a highly regarded mound Jedi. Blessed with an aggressive demeanor and lethal concoction of mid-90s fastballs and filthy sliders, he completely mystified hitters. His resulting production was nothing short of spectacular. Over 219 innings he emerged victorious 16 times, punching out 214 (8.67 K/9) while walking just 1.93 batters per nine, the ninth-most valuable line in fantasy according to Baseball Monster. A wee tot at 25, he seemed destined to be a rotation anchor for decades to come. 

Then Emperor Palpatine cast lighting bolts on his arm.

Plagued by setbacks to his ulnar collateral ligament and triceps last May, his velocity dipped, control unraveled and ERA soared. Fly-balls which had stayed in the park the year before stretched to homers. Overnight he morphed into Ramon Ortiz(notes).

But on Sunday, the former pitching Skywalker polished up his light saber.

The reinvigorated righty, who is owned in only 51 percent of Y! leagues, was nearly flawless against Toronto. In a very efficient 106-pitch complete game masterpiece, he mowed down one Blue Jay after another, finishing with six strikeouts and zero walks. An Adam Lind(notes) solo blast with two outs in the ninth was his only blemish. Without question, first-pitch strikes, which dismayed Santana often a season ago, was his primary key to success.

Though his fastball is slightly more pedestrian than it was in ’08, Santana’s outstanding effort could be a harbinger of positive outings to come. With his confidence renewed and his command once again harnessed, he’s on the cusp of becoming shallow league relevant. Yes, it’s just one start and long-balls also continue to be problematic – he’s surrendered five homers already this year, but the 27-year-old was valuable in the recent past. Despite what fishy admirals may tell you, it’s not a trap.

Now healthy and with adequate run support, he could accumulate numbers in range of 12-15 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 170 K.

The Angels’ Jedi may have indeed returned.

• Staying north of the border, the Ricky Romero(notes) Festival of Love continued Sunday. Barely touched over eight innings, he yielded just one earned, walking one with five strikeouts. Healthy and equipped with a filthy change, the former first-round pick is flashing breakout signals. Still owned in just 67 percent of Y! leagues, he should be snatched up even in the shallowest of mixed leagues.

• Texas manager Ron Washington elevated Elvis Andrus(notes) into the leadoff spot, supplanting Julio Borbon(notes). Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News believes the move will "probably be for the foreseeable future." Assuming this is truly the case, Borbon, who is just 3-for-36 with one steal on the season, takes a significant value hit. He’s expendable in standard-sized mixed leagues. Meanwhile for Andrus, the switcharoo greatly enhances his overall worth. A short-term rise in runs and steals is definite.

• Mired in a deep early season slide, ultra-hyped outfielder Jay Bruce(notes) finally shook off a bad case of the slumps belting two solo blasts – his first two round-trippers of the season – against the Buccos. Hopefully Sunday’s power exhibition will springboard the 23-year-old to the projected 30-35 homer campaign most pundits pegged him for. Your chance to purchase the slugger at a discounted rate may have just expired.

• Scott Pianowski dreamboat, Ty Wigginton(notes), knocked in four more runs – RBI No. 7, 8, 9 and 10. Undeniably the hottest hitter in a Pale O’s uniform, he has seven hits and 10 RBI since taking over everyday duties at second for injured All-Star Brian Roberts(notes). His versatility, above average pop and routine spot batting second in Dave Trembley’s order is convincing. If you’re looking for a quick MI fix, Wiggs and San Fran’s Eugenio Velez(notes) are excellent mercenaries in deeper mixed formats.

• Ballyhooed Mets prospect Ike Davis(notes) could be promoted imminently after Mike Jacobs(notes) was designated for assignment. A strapping lad at 6-foot-5, 200-pounds, the former Arizona State standout possesses a watchful eye and terrific raw power. Between High-A and Double-A a season ago, he tallied a .298-20-71 line over 429 at-bats. Obviously, he’s not rosterable in 12-team mixed leagues considering the depth at first base, but for owners in NL-only and Grand Canyon-deep mixed formats he’s a nice speculative pickup. For additional information on Davis, check out Mets Minor League Blog’s richly detailed scouting report.

QUICK HITTERS: Brett Gardner(notes) swiped his sixth and seventh bags of the season in a 2-for-3 (one run) effort against friendly Rangers starter Rich Harden(notes). If Joe Girardi pencils him into the leadoff spot regularly against righties, he could very easily amass 70-80 runs and 40-plus steals…Ivan Rodriguez(notes) continues to defy the erroding effects of Father Time. The future HOFer went 3-for-5 with two doubles and an RBI against the Brewers. It was his sixth multi-hit performance on the young season…Nate Robertson(notes) improved his record to 2-0 holding the Majors’ most explosive offense (Philadelphia) scoreless over 6.1 innings. If he continues to coax grounders (14 on Sunday), he’s worth a look in NL-only and very deep formats. Remember ’06?…Jon Lester(notes) was pounded for seven earned over six innings. The deplorable outing marked his third straight game allowing at least four runs. Poor command continues to be the culprit. Despite the tear-inducing start, he remains a strong buy low candidate…Carl Pavano(notes) returned to earth surrendering seven over 3.1 innings against the Royals. Because he possesses an underwhelming fastball, he was bound to get pounded eventually. Then again, maybe he had ex-girlfriend Alyssa Milano’s lady lumps on the mind…After blowing opportunities in his two previous attempts, Baltimore’s Jim Johnson(notes) shut the door on Oakland for a rare two-inning save. It appears Trembley is committed to the adventurous reliever until Mike Gonzalez is activated…Funston favorite Alberto Callaspo(notes) smoked the Twinkies for two homers and a career-best six RBI. It was his first multi-homer game of his career. Similar to Velez and Wigginton, the KC second basemen is an underappreciated middle infielder who should continue to post admirable numbers as an injury fill-in…Barry Zito(notes) notched his third straight quality start, limiting archrival Los Angeles to one earned over 7.1 innings. Unfortunately, Sergio Romo’s(notes) beach ball to Manny Ramirez(notes) spoiled the W. Expect a Zito regression soon. His high number of fly-balls will inevitably haunt him. Keep in mind he faced Pittsburgh and Houston in his first two outings.

—

Images courtesy of Getty and US Presswire

Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading, keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves, unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature’s influences.

LEADING OFF

On Friday, an 86-MPH Vicente Padilla(notes) fastball grew arms and punched Aaron Rowand(notes) smack in the face (gruesome video here). The result wasn’t pleasant. After remaining knee bent in the batter’s circle for several moments, the Giants centerfielder, who is no stranger to facial disfigurement, groggily walked off the field. The injuries suffered: two fractures in his left cheekbone and a mild concussion.

With Rowand presumably headed to the DL – he is attempting to avoid a prolonged absence – Eugenio Velez(notes) takes over everyday duties in center and in the leadoff spot.

Expect the one percent-owned commodity to take flight.

Though occasional impatience has plagued him (career 0.33 BB/K), Velez has always possessed a slightly above average skill set. Blessed with plus athleticism and blazing speed – he swiped 121 bases from 2006-2007 – the versatile 27-year-old has only been one opportunity away from becoming a lighter-hitting Denard Span(notes).

Including Saturday’s 3-for-5 (2B, BB, R, RBI) effort against archrival Los Angeles, the switch-hitter has amassed surprisingly useful numbers since late July ’09. Over 290 at-bats, he’s posted a .278 BA with five homers, 32 RBI 39 runs and 10 steals. His multi-position eligibility (2B and OF) labels him very serviceable for owners forced to field middle infielders. During his expected extended audition, he could generate appreciable numbers in runs and steals. He could also produce sneaky power totals. Twice already this season he’s belted three-run homers.

If Velez left Fantasyland tomorrow, would you still remember him?

For those struggling to unearth dependable MI options in very deep mixed and NL-only leagues (The Noise is looking at you Brian Roberts(notes) owners), the answer is unequivocally yes.

Won’t you fly highhh freeee bird ya!

QUICK HITTERS (Tidbits from Saturday’s slate): Livan Hernandez(notes), apparently motivated by Whoppers, induced 15 groundball outs en route to a masterful four-hit, complete game shutout of San Diego. He walked two and struck three. The seemingly ancient journeyman has not allowed an earned run in 16 straight innings. Knowing Livan’s past, an eruption is coming. Soon…For those searching for pop, Rick Ankiel(notes) could be your Muscle Milk. The converted pitcher spanked the Twins, reaching Souvenir City twice off Nick Blackburn(notes). He’s now batting .308 on the season with nine RBI…Nelson Cruz(notes) crushed his seventh homer of the season. It’s possible the ’09 All-Star could flirt with 50 bombs if he remains healthy. If that happens, a Casper-white fantasy writer may streak past your living room window. Don’t look directly into the bright reflecting light…Alfonso Soriano(notes) logged his third multi-hit game in his past five. However, he butchered a routine line-drive for his third error of the season. The rapidly rotting corpse may soon yield starts to Tyler Colvin(notes) unless he suddenly channels Gary Matthews…Juan Rivera(notes) cranked his third bomb of the season. The 59 percent-owned outfielder continues to produce steady results with little fanfare…More unrest in the Baltimore bullpen as stopgap Jim Johnson(notes) failed to defend a one-run lead against Oakland. It was his second consecutive blown save. Cla Meredith(notes) or former start Mark Hendrickson(notes) could be given the ball next. Maybe Dave Trembley should consider dragging Lee Smith out of retirement…Discussed in this space last week, Cardinals rookie Jaime Garcia(notes) had his second straight spotless performance, allowing just one hit (2 BB) with five strikeouts over seven shutout innings against the Mets (RE: Johan Santana(notes). The Law of Fantasy Expert Prognostication once again proved true.). The Cards’ No. 5 is still just eight percent-owned. He’s earned a roster spot in 12-team mixed leagues.

PULLS, STRAINS AND REHAB GAINS (Injury updates/notes):  Manny Ramirez(notes) was unavailable (calf) for Saturday’s matchup with hated rival San Francisco. He’s currently listed day-to-day…Brandon Webb(notes) was officially transferred to the 60-day DL pushing his estimated return date back to May 25…Alex Gordon(notes) was activated from the 15-day DL. He pinch-hit and drew a walk against Minnesota. Finally, Willie Bloomquist(notes) can be rocketed into space…Chris Getz(notes) was placed on the 15-day DL with an oblique injury. With Gordon back at full strength, Funston snake charmer Alberto Callaspo(notes) will slide over to second to fill the void…Joe Blanton(notes) had a successful bullpen session Friday. He is expected to make his first rehab appearance on Tuesday, targeting a May 1 return…Miguel Tejada(notes) blew out a tire attempting to run out a bunt single. He left the field in pain. A 15-day siesta could be imminent…In more combustible hamstring news Mark DeRosa(notes) exited Saturday’s game with a strained right hamstring. Similar to Tejada, a DL stint is possible for the versatile asset…Kerry Wood(notes) could reclaim his closer’s role within a week. The adventurous stopper is slated to face live batters by the weekend, possibly returning to the Indians ‘pen next Monday.

DOUBLE DIPPERS

For stream conscious owners who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you. Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top double dippers of each week.

Other AL Double Dippers: Brian Bannister(notes), KC (at Tor, Min), Brad Bergesen(notes), Bal (at Sea, at Bos), Dontrelle Willis(notes), Det (at LAA, at Tex)

Other NL Double Dippers: Kyle Kendrick(notes), Phi (at Atl, at Ari), Dave Bush(notes), Mil (at Pit, ChC), Scott Olsen(notes), Was (Col, LAD), Charlie Morton(notes), Pit (Mil, at Hou), Craig Stammen(notes), Was (Col, LAD)

FEAST OR FAMINE?  

Torn between two stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam LaRoche(notes) or Carl Pavano(notes) is fantasy feast or famine. Stats are for games played through April 16:

Want to ridicule the Noise for his Billy Butler(notes) obsession or misguided
projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter.

It’s fitting in the same week Americans recognized the 40th
anniversary of the space industry’s most "successful failure"
mission, Apollo 13, the Houston Astros were faced with an equally daunting
problem.

The difference: This year’s deplorable band of Dickie Thon
All-Stars doesn’t have the luxury of consulting rocket scientists to reach a
resolution. Where’s Glenn Davis’ beautifully parted lip raccoon when you need it most?

Still winless on the season, the ‘Stros are a Texas-sized
embarrassment. Dead last in just about every offensive category imaginable and
identically horrific in pitching, they’re on a fast-track to Chico’s Bail Bonds immortality. With an aging
lineup, laughable farm system and unreliable pitching outside Roy Oswalt(notes) and
Wandy Rodriguez(notes), Houston’s
troubles are glaring. Unsurprisingly, normally dependable options, Hunter
Pence(notes) and Carlos Lee(notes) have stumbled out of the gates.

Lee’s early season swoon in particular is worrisome. That
is, to the cursory fantasy player. 

Currently hitting the equivalent weight of one Olsen twin
(.097), El Caballo appears to be one step away from the glue factory. His
unsightly strikeout percentage (29.0) and abnormally high volume of fly-outs
has severely deflated his early season worth. Most remarkable, he’s failed to
record a line-drive in 31 at-bats. The 33-year-old blames his turbulent start
on swing flaws. From the Houston
Chronicle:

"I’m not pressing at all," Lee said. "I think
that something’s going on mechanically, but I have to keep going because I have
156 more games and 580 more at-bats."

Undoubtedly, the absence of Lance Berkman(notes), who is targeting
an April 20 return, hasn’t helped. 

Before impatient owners start shopping the proven outfielder
for the white-hot likes of Scott Podsednik(notes), Jorge Cantu(notes) and Vernon Wells(notes), it’s
imperative to study Lee’s past.

The three-time All-Star is a textbook consistency king.
Since 2006, he’s blasted at least 26 homers, driven in 100-plus runs and
notched a .300 BA every year. Due to his advancing age stolen base production has diminished,
a typical decline. Still, his stellar contact rates (career 85.3 CT%), RBI-friendly
spot in the order and steady peripherals suggest a sharp statistical regression
is unlikely. Keep in mind, Lee is just a career .261 hitter in April and has
played against squads with superb pitching staffs (St.
Louis, Philadelphia and San Francisco). Similar
to Mark Teixiera, he’s a notorious snail out of the gates. Excluding runs and
steals, the numbers will eventually come.

Unlike the heroic Apollo 13 crew, the ‘Stros collectively
won’t be able to avoid disaster. Triple-digit futility is very possible.

But to
the thrifty, C-Lee could be a galactic bargain.

Fearless Forecast
(full season): 603 at-bats, .296 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 64 R, 5 SB

—

CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues

Javier Vazquez(notes), NYY,
SP (96 percent-owned):  The
high-priced offseason acquisition has been anything but Senor Smooth in his
first two starts. In those fruitless endeavors he’s allowed a staggering 12
runs (9:5 K:BB split) over 11 innings or the same number of runs he yielded in
the entire month of April last year. Historically, the transition from the NL
to the AL
tacks on roughly 0.50-1.00 points to a pitcher’s ERA. In Vazquez’ case it could
be significantly greater. He has a career 4.59 ERA on the junior circuit.
Better days are on the horizon, but until he hones his command additional rough
outings are in the forecast.

3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler

Johan Santana(notes), NYM
(4/17 at StL, 98 percent-owned): Can we mutually agree some of Johan’s ace
luster has worn off? Erratic in his last start against the Nationals, Santana
surrendered five runs (3:3 K:BB split) in five innings, taking the loss. The NL
Central pacesetters boast a deadly lineup. As usual, Pujols is locked in his
own universe and complementary players Matt Holliday(notes) and Ryan Ludwick(notes) are also
currently scorching. The Cardinals are averaging 5.5 runs per game. Santana’s
sinister side revealed itself on the road last season (4.09 ERA). In the Lou,
Mr. Hyde will again replace Dr. Jekyll.

SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time

Austin Jackson(notes), Det,
OF (25 percent-owned): The "action" atop the Tigers’ lineup, Jackson has opened eyes
over the season’s first two weeks. In eight games, he’s registered four
multi-hit performances. He’s failed to record a hit in a contest only once.
Suffice it to say, former Curtis Granderson(notes) supporters have confidently
switched their allegiance. But despite his stirring start, the former Yankees
top prospect is a master in the art of deception. His uncomfortable strikeout
rate (30.6 K%) combined with an inflated BABIP (.440) arrows to a BA downfall.
Simply, he has the profile of a .260 not a .300 hitter. Jim Leyland loves the
kid and his 25-30 steals potential is enticing, but a major slump or three seems
inevitable.

—

Images courtesy of US Presswire, MLB.com

Any qualified dietician would tell you balanced nutrition is
the key to longevity.

To achieve success in an epic game, baseball fanalysts would
too. Players composed mostly of saturated fats, high fructose corn syrup and inflated
strikeout rates (i.e. David Ortiz(notes)) typically are not recommended.

However, Arizona’s
Chris Young, historically the KFC Double Down of fantasy outfielders, may
soon become an acceptable diet staple.

Since his inaugural season in 2007 – he’s the only rookie in
big league history to smack 30 homers and swipe 25 steals – Young has added
love handles and spiked the cholesterol levels of his investors. His gross strikeout-to-walks
disparity often created prolonged droughts. Flirting with Mr. Mendoza was an all too
familiar occurrence. Over the past two seasons, he averaged an artery-clogging
.233-19-64-70-12 line. To most, his banishment to Triple-A Reno last July was
well-deserved and long overdue.

However, Young, similar to Texas’ Chris Davis(notes), underwent a major
transformation during his minor league hiatus. Disgusted frowns spurred by
over-pressing were replaced with jubilant smiles. Exhibiting
renewed energy when recalled in September, he collected a respectable .277 BA with eight homers and 14 RBI
over his final 108 at-bats. The former top prospect credited his blue collar
approach for the turnaround. From MLB.com:

"I know how hard I was working and the
adjustments I was trying to make to turn things around," Young said.
"My desire and work ethic were not the issues. I love this game, it means
so much. I’ve played it since I was 4 years old. It was my first love. I push
myself and expect more out of myself than anyone else ever could…"

"To go back there and have some success really
helped," Young said. "I didn’t have all the other pressure around me.
I was able to focus on what I needed to do and not have outside pressure on me.
I got comfortable in the box again and I was confident at the plate. I wasn’t
thinking as much. When you stop thinking is when things turn around for you,
because when you’re not thinking at the plate you let your natural abilities
take over instead of thinking so much about mechanics."

Determined to bury his destitute ways, Young worked hard
this past offseason in an attempt to carry momentum over from his admirable
finish. He came to spring training lrelaxed and stress free. In a paradoxical
twist, his boyish exuberance spawned veteran maturity. Spring stats can be
irrelevant, but over 62 Cactus League at-bats, he accumulated a .306 BA with three
homers, 12 RBI and two steals. More importantly, he posted a 9:10 K:BB split.

So far in the regular season, the 60 percent-owned commodity
has remained consistent at the plate. In 28 at-bats hitting primarily behind Mark Reynolds(notes),
he’s notched an uncharacteristic .321 BA with three homers and a
position-leading 12 RBI. Unfathomably, he’s struck out just four times (14.3
K%), remarkable when considering his tree-destructive past (26.4 career K%). With
terrific table-setters in front of him, banner numbers are attainable. Seriously.

Yes, the sample size is minute, but Young’s initial results are
certainly encouraging. He’s always possessed the pedigree. In 2005,
he was named the White Sox’s Minor League Player of the Year. The outfielder’s sharpened
eye – his walks percentage has steadily increased in three consecutive seasons
– is a significant evolutionary step.

Simply put: some players’ developmental curves (i.e. Nelson
Cruz(notes)) are steeper than others (i.e. Jason Heyward(notes)). With 1,725 at-bats under his belt, the 26-year-old could be
on the precipice of a remarkable year, which really would be an unforeseen achievement.
Just four weeks ago most drafters would’ve rather mud-wrestled a Komodo
dragon.

Nutritionists maintain five-a-day will keep the doctor away.
For those who acquire the burgeoning Young, across-the-board contributions could
help their teams avoid additional waiver checkups.

Fearless Forecast
(season): 575 at-bats, .273 BA, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 78 R, 16 SB

—

Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Nick Johnson(notes), 1B, OF
(19 percent-owned): Finally busting out of a two-week slump, the Oscar
Meyer-athletic Johnson smacked his first homer of the season and scored three
runs April 13 against the Angels. At first glance, he may seem undesirable due to his injury-plagued
history and incredible depth at first, but the double-chinned three is very rosterable in 12-team mixed
leagues. The hitter-friendly microclimate at Yankees Stadium and his
entrenched No. 2 spot in the order benefits the lefty-swinger greatly. If he
can somehow avoid the injury imp and muster 500 at-bats, Johnson is bound to
finish in range of .285-20-75-100.

Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.

Colby Lewis(notes), Tex
(4/15 at Cle, four percent-owned): An unheralded deep league Rip Van Winkle
a month ago, Lewis was dandy April 9 against Seattle, earning the win ( 7 IP, 1 ER, 3:4 K:BB). Though his control was only adequate in
his first start, the well-traveled righty has plenty of polish. While exiled in
Japan
from 2008-2009 he tallied sick numbers (354.1 IP, 369:46 K:BB, 2.82 ERA). The
woeful Indians have collectively batted just .221 and scored a mere 3.4 runs
per game. Based on the matchup, Texas’
Gulliver could again shine.

Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.

Jeremy Affeldt(notes), SF (20
percent-owned): As Alfredo Aceves(notes) owners can attest, every season one or two
relievers stumbles into winnable situations. With two Ws and an unconventional two-inning
save already attached to his name, Affeldt could be a similar middle relief maestro.
Last year, the journeymen reliever was the Mariano Rivera(notes) of holders, tying
Matt Guerrier(notes) for the league lead in the controversial fantasy category with 33.
His combination of strong strikeout and groundball totals arrows to continued
success. Roughly 70 IP with an ERA well south of 3.00 and 60-plus Ks should be
expected.

—

Images courtesy of US Presswire, MLB.com

Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides
head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable
matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading,
keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves,
unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature’s influences.

LEADING OFF

Arlington’s
Department of Ballpark Security has just raised its threat level from
orange to
red. As a result, new guards have been hired, bullpen chairs bolted down
and
box seat patrons warned. No pretzel
dog feels safe…

Frank Francisco(notes) blew yet another save.

On Friday, the hotheaded closer failed to hold a three-run
lead against the Blue Jays, surrendering three in two-thirds of an inning.
Saturday’s encore, this time against Seattle,
was a disastrous carbon-copy. Below is the frightening play-by-play. Franky
supporters are strongly recommended to shield their eyes:

Francisco’s updated ERA (27.00) and WHIP (5.00) is more
indicative of a Dirk Nowitzki end game line than anything resembling a
reputable stopper. Frankly, it’s appalling. Owners who shelled out sizable coin
for the stopper’s services (The Noise embarrassingly raises his hand) are
likely already wallowing near the basement in two key pitching categories. Yippee
Skippy.

After the game Ron Washington (We can only assume he has an insatiable urge to be trapped in a "blizzard" right now) was supportive yet veiled when discussing his troubled closer’s latest debacle. From MLB.com:

There could be another save opportunity on Sunday, but it might
not necessarily be Francisco who gets the call.

"Stay tuned," Washington
said cryptically.

Thursday and Saturday had one other thing in common. Neftali Feliz(notes) preceded
Francisco to the mound and retired the side in order in the eighth inning. But
it would still seem unlikely that Washington
would make a change at closer right now this early in the season.

"I’d just like to see him get those three outs in the ninth inning, and
he would, too," Washington
said. "Nobody wants to get those outs worse than Frankie. … He’s our
closer."

Francisco’s velocity is down a few ticks, but Rangers’ management doesn’t
seem concerned. Evidently he’s still rounding into shape. Still, until he can successfully generate outs, wunderkind
Neftali Feliz could snag a save opportunity or three in the short-term.

After a
rocky Opening Day, the young flamethrower has relaxed, tossing consecutive scoreless
innings with four strikeouts. Despite his tender age and end-game inexperience,
he clearly has the stuff to develop into a dominating closer.

Obviously, the torched Ranger, like Mike Gonzalez(notes), shouldn’t be banished to St. Helena just yet. With his manager’s support, he will be given additional
opportunities to right the ship. Still, owner doubt has unquestionably crept in.

QUICK HITTERS (tidbits from
Saturday’s slate): Magglio Ordonez(notes) is rapidly becoming fantasy relevant once
again after clubbing his second homer in three days. He’s now 10-for-21 on the
young season with four RBI…AL hitters continue to be intimidated by Jon Rauch’s(notes)
6-foot-11 frame and trailer-rad neck tattoo. He’s now a perfect 4-for-4 in save
opportunities…Bat cancer Willy Taveras(notes) could actually be the answer in right for
the Nationals. The speedster, a potential source of cheap speed, collected two
hits and four RBI against the Mets. Keep close tabs on him deep leaguers…Aaron
Harang(notes), arguably the unluckiest starter in the bigs over the past two seasons,
shined in a no decision versus the Cubs, racking a 7:0 K:BB split over seven
innings. He allowed three runs. In the same game, Carlos Zambrano(notes) rebounded
with a 3 ER, 9 K effort over seven strong…St.
Louis’ Jamie Garcia is a name to watch closely in
12-team and deeper formats. The rookie surrendered just one earned over six
innings (5:3 K:BB) earning the W in Sausageland. Based on his minor league
track-record, he could become a valuable K source. Dave Duncan is a genius…Gaby
Sanchez(notes) cracked his first career homer, a three-run jack off woeful Vicente
Padilla(notes). He’s quietly been productive collecting five hits in 16 at-bats (four
for extra bases) and four RBI. It won’t be long before he’s relevant in 12-team
mixed formats…The Butler bump has turned Rick Ankiel(notes) into a ball-crushing
monster. The outfielder has notched six hits and four RBI in his past two
games. He could amass a surprising RBI total hitting behind the Ass-O-Meter…Finally,
Lance Berkman(notes) is targeting April 20 for his season debut. The Big Puma’s deteriorating
bat will provide little hope for the dreadful ‘Stros. Where’s Dickie Thon when
you need him most?  

DOUBLE DIPPERS

For stream conscious owners
who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you.
Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing
offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological
influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top
double dippers of each week.

Other AL Double Dippers: Justin Duchscherer(notes), Oak (at Sea, Bal), Brian Tallet(notes), Tor (ChW, LAA), Jeremy Guthrie(notes), Bal (TB, at Oak)

Other NL Double Dippers: Ross Ohlendorf(notes), Pit (at SF, Cin), Nate Robertson(notes), Fla (Cin, at Phi, Greg Smith(notes), Col (NYM, at Atl)

FEAST OR FAMINE?  

Torn between two
stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff
sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam LaRoche(notes) or Carl Pavano(notes) is fantasy feast or famine.
Stats are for games played through April 9:

Want to ridicule the Noise for his Billy Butler(notes) obsession or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter.

Age-driven regression is an unfortunate fact of life. Certain parts drag southward, basic functions slow and the taste for Metamucil becomes insatiable. Unless your name is Mariano Rivera(notes), Bobby Abreu(notes) or Marisa Tomei, skills deterioration is unavoidable and inevitable. 

Just ask the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano(notes).

Over the past two seasons, the North Side’s $136 million hopscotch enthusiast has been unable to stiff arm Father Time. Hampered by myriad injuries, he’s failed to surpass 480 at-bats in consecutive seasons. Even when healthy, erratic efforts have become routine. He’s been baffled by offspeed pitches  – only Ryan Howard(notes) saw more breaking stuff last season –  ran less and compiled long fruitless stretches. Last season’s dismal line (.241-20-55-64-9) says it all. As a result, former fantasy lovers renounced their adoration for the slugger. Presumably, so did his road beef.

The former 40-40 man, heavily discounted in drafts this season, was sold at a fraction of what he cost just two years ago ($8 AAV). In standard serpentine drafts, he was a citizen of McPlayland, selected slightly above Andrew McCutchen(notes) and Nate McLouth(notes) (86.61 ADP). Clearly, Soriano cynicism has replaced optimism in the minds of the masses. And wealthy Cubs fans.

Still, the question remains: Based on his illustrious past, is there hope for the 34-year-old to regain his All-Star form?

In a phrase: hell no.

Though he claims physically he’s "feeling very good" – he ran smoothly from first-to-third on a hit-and-run Wednesday – Soriano’s absent swagger is a bit concerning. In previous seasons, he entered spring training cocky and confident. This year, he was more reserved and focused, determined to iron out the kinks in his flawed swing. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but because of his advanced age and eroding skill set, it doesn’t exactly conjure perky thoughts.

The presence of hitting sensei Rudy Jaramillo, who is very familiar with his pupil’s swing from their days in Texas, definitely helps. However, Fonzy’s widening walk:strikeout disparity (0.34 BB/K in ’09), evaporating bat speed, dwindling power and decreasing urge to steal are major deterrents. Unless you’re lapping up the Old Style, a very average season is likely in the works. Remember, OF3s in 12-team mixed leagues averaged .265-19-68-70-9 a season ago. His shift from leadoff to sixth should bolster his RBI total, but the end-game line will likely be only slightly better than the norm. Marlon Byrd(notes) may actually yield more value. Garrett Jones(notes), Kyle Blanks(notes) and Drew Stubbs(notes) will too.

Since he’s more or less still a brand name, owners who grabbed him off the clearance rack should strongly contemplate shopping him if he posts respectable numbers in April. With two hits in two games, he could be off on the right foot. 

Still, because of the negative factors working against him, Soriano won’t age gracefully.

Fearless Forecast: 485 at-bats, .259 BA, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 70 R, 9 SB

—

CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Adam LaRoche(notes), Ari, 1B (57 percent-owned, dropped in 3,500-plus Y! leagues this week): Rubbing too many elbows with human blow torch Mark Reynolds(notes), the elder LaRoche, a notorious slow starter (career .190 BA in April), has uprooted cacti and displaced small vermin with six strikeouts in 12 at-bats. He’s also failed to register a hit. Batting cleanup in a solid Arizona lineup, he will eventually come around. Sandwiched between muscle men Justin Upton(notes) and Reynolds will inevitably lead to an increase in punishable pitches. Once he rounds into form a .275-25-100-85 season is likely. Don’t be a knee jerk.

3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler

Roy Oswalt(notes), Hou (4/11 vs. Phi, 85 percent-owned): Terribly mundane compared to what he used to be, Oswalt is an unexciting starter on a bland Astros team which was recently swept by San Francisco. Though he’s still fantasy serviceable, the former power ace, who tossed six innings (3 ER, 3:2 K:BB, L) on Opening Day, could get spanked by the power-packed Polancos. In their first two games against the lifeless Nationals, the Phills scored 19 runs. Consider alternatives on Sunday. (i.e. Scott Feldman(notes) (vs. Sea, 53% owned) or Clay Buchholz(notes) (at KC, 43% owned)).

SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s lucky bastards one decimal place at a time

Fausto Carmona(notes), Cle (25 percent-owned): Tabbed a rebound candidate by many self-proclaimed gurus, the inconsistent Indian delivered an admirable effort in his first 2010 start. Or did he? Wednesday’s line against the Sox was both terrific and terrible (6 IP, 1 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 1 K, W). Walks have been a bugaboo for Carmona since his breakout campaign in ’07 (5.12 BB/9 past two seasons). Combine that with an uncharacteristic number of fly-balls allowed (seven on Wednesday), and he was extremely fortunate to escape with a quality start. If his command continues to be unwieldy, inflated ERA/WHIP numbers will surface.

—

Image Courtesy of US Presswire 

Want to ridicule the Noise for his Billy Butler(notes) obsession or misguided projections? Humiliate him in 140 characters or less on Twitter.

In the case of Florida’s
Ricky Nolasco(notes), looks are most definitely deceiving.

Over the first several weeks of the ’09 season, the
high-profiled righty tormented his faithful backers. Though he earned the win Opening Day, his five earned runs against the lowly Nationals set the stage for
his next nine appearances. By May 22nd, Nolasco’s ERA, which had pigged out on
Bartolo Burgers, fattened to a ghastly 9.07. His breakthrough campaign the
previous year quickly became a distant memory. For an unlucky pitcher (.336 BABIP in ’09) with excellent
peripherals, his early season demise was perplexing to say the least.

Mentally drained and physically exhausted, the beaten
starter was banished to Triple-A New Orleans in late May. Fredi Gonzalez blamed
the hurler’s horrific start on fastball timidity. Nolasco simply wasn’t
attacking the zone with the same zeal. Fantasy players
who shelled out exorbitant cash for his services wished to get sucked under by
a riptide.

Instead of festering on Bourbon Street, Nolasco emerged from his
minor league exile smelling fresher. Apparently, he finally realized he
was an ex-Cub.

Despite the occasional relapse, he was
arguably one of the most dominant pitchers in the National League from June 7th on compiling 11
wins, a 3.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and insane 10.08 K/9. His 16-strikeout fan-fest
against Atlanta
to end the season was spectacular. According to Baseball Monster, his sparkling
four-month line was the 14th-best among starters, ranking ahead of position
goliaths Justin Verlander(notes), Josh Beckett(notes) and Cliff Lee(notes).

This spring Nolasco carried momentum over. Underneath the
opaque shades, puffy jacket and dark cap (see above) was an intelligent machine
programmed to kill. Quite possibly the sharpest pitcher in Grapefruit action,
he mowed down hitters, totaling a ridiculous 21:1 K:BB split and 1.78 ERA in
25.1 innings. He was Velveeta cheese fudge nasty. The rising star credited pounding
the zone for his brilliant performance. From MLB.com:

"The biggest thing I learned as far as pitching
is to throw strikes, not walk guys. It just makes your job a million times
easier. It’s something I’ve learned and thought about since maybe I was
12…"

"As far as the innings go and the stats, I’m feeling good. They’re
playing good defense behind me. We are swinging the bats. All I can do is let
that carry over into the year and try to help this team win ballgames. It’s
been good. I’m just trying to keep the ball down and let the defense work for
me."

The control freak is so supremely confident he’s set a goal of 25 walks this
season, a feat only six pitchers with 200-plus innings have achieved since
1980. Jonathan Sanchez(notes) issues that many free passes over five starts. 

But despite his sensational ’09 finish and otherworldly spring, many owners – presumably
frightened by his misleading 5.06 ERA – avoided Nolasco this past drafting
season. His resulting 97.67 ADP (SP22) tabbed him a friggin’ steal.

With his command refined, slider biting and low-90s fastball
again popping the mitt, Nolasco is on the precipice of an historic season.
Given the plentiful run support he should receive and the pitcher-friendly
specs of Sun Life Stadium, he could vie for the NL Cy Young. And fantasy
greatness.

Nolasco will be an indestructible mound "Terminator."

Fearless Forecast: 209.1 IP, 15 W, 3.69 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 193 K 

—

DISCOUNT DEN
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Juan Uribe(notes), SF,
2B/SS/3B (18 percent-owned): With Freddy Sanchez(notes) sidelined for the next
several weeks, the Giants’ super-utilityman is employable in deeper formats. Already
3-for-7 with a run and two RBI, Uribe possesses plus power and useful flexibility.
Coming off a career best HR/AB campaign (24.8, 16 HR in 398 at-bats), he will
be a cheap pop source at middle infield in April. Uribe sears, and he may
force his way into the lineup permanently.

OOH STREAM WEAVER…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter for dilligent daily leaguers.

Ian Kennedy(notes), Ari (4/7
vs. SD, seven percent-owned): Buried in the Yankees’ minor league system
after several miserable auditions, the former top prospect was provided a new
lease on life in Arizona
via the Granderson trade. After an eye-opening spring (25 IP, 2.88 ERA, 17:5 K:BB split), he’s a prime breakthrough candidate. The Padres are improved offensively, but will likely again
be bottom feeders in runs. San Diego’s
blank book on Kennedy certainly gives the hurler the advantage.

MIDDLE RELIEF MAGIC
ERA/WHIP savior, potential
saves/wins vulture.

Neftali Feliz(notes), Tex (80 percent owned): After a dismal Opening
Day effort – Mariah Carey may have better command – many have already bailed on
the hard-throwing reliever. But Texas’
primary setup man certainly has the stuff – he routinely flirts with triple digits – to develop into a reliable K-source,
and potential closer. Ignore the glitch. If Frank Francisco(notes) fails or falls – he
missed significant time last year – Neftali will log 12-15 saves. Feast on the
meek.

—

Image courtesy of US Presswire

At first glance, Florida’s
Gaby Sanchez(notes) is just another mediocre Helton in an arena filled with heavy
hitting statistical rock stars. Essentially, he’s fantasy’s version of a
xylophonist – unadored by groupies, only appreciated by the Violent Femmes.  

But behind the sophomoric jokes and assumed marginality lies
a player with quality upside, even for novices who believe the free-swinging LaRoches
(Really more Adam than Andy) are a flying trapeze act.

Sanchez is your prototype homegrown talent. Born and
raised in Miami,
he played infield for the much ballyhooed ‘U.’ Believe it or not, he was also one of
the few dozen fans who grew up idolizing Marlins. Images of Bobby Bonilla and Jeff Conine(notes) surely adorned his bedroom wall.

Now an elder prospect at 26, the former Hurricane could
yield instant value. Staving off future heartthrob Logan Morrison(notes) in spring
training, Sanchez won the starting first base job by maintaining a light
mindset. Instead of applying unneeded pressure onto himself, an approach he
failed to follow last year, he entered camp more relaxed and open-minded. His
forceless demeanor led to gaudy exhibition numbers. Over 54 at-bats, he’s stroked
a .352 BA with two homers, five RBI, 13 runs and a stolen base. His 15:4 K:BB
disparity is slightly alarming, but Fredi Gonzalez is optimistic the youngster
has the eye to succeed. Though Sanchez is a self-described "gap-to-gap
kind of guy," Gonzalez believes his pop is better than advertised. From
the Palm Beach
Post:

"Gaby, given a lot of at-bats, may be a 15- to 20-home
run guy. For a first year in the major leagues, I’ll take that."

Baseball America
projects 25-plus homers for the junior Marlin in the near future. Based on his
plus patience, high contact numbers and respectable power totals accumulated in
the minors (’09 Triple-A: 314 at-bats, .290-16-55, 0.95 BB/K), their foresights
are reasonable. It’s also important to note, he possesses double-digit speed. Two
seasons ago at Double-A, he swiped 17 bags.

Sanchez is slated to bat in the undesirable eighth position,
a spot which severely limits his RBI upside. However, with a strong start he
could be promoted to sixth, right behind Dan Uggla(notes).  

Most unchallenged owners would skewer the Cadbury bunny if
it left Sanchez in their Easter basket. After all, as Grizzly Behrens pointed
out back in February, the average line among top 30 first basemen a season ago was .285-30-99-85-4.  But
for fanatics in 12-team and deeper leagues which require a corner infield or
utility spot, the four percent-owned (330.12 ADP) commodity is rosterable. He could be the East Coast version of James Loney(notes) – not spectacular, but servicable. 

If Sanchez roars out of the gate, you can surely bet he’ll
be "Gone Daddy Gone" off waivers.  

Fearless Forecast: 467 at-bats, .278 BA, 18 HR, 70 RBI, 61 R, 8 SB 

—

Image courtesy of Getty 

To hell and back is a phrase Francisco Liriano(notes) is all too
familiar with.

Over his tumultuous five year career, the Twins flamethrower
has experienced euphoric highs and painful lows. When he replaced Carlos Silva(notes)
in the Minnesota
rotation in May ’06, he bedazzled hitters with a nasty mixture of mid-90s
fastballs, hard-breaking sliders and bewildering changeups. The then
22-year-old’s spectacular end-game line (12 W, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.71 K/9) pointed
to years of dominance.

Then Fransucko struck.

After experiencing elbow soreness later that season, he
opted to undergo Tommy John surgery, ending his ’07 campaign before it even
began. His subsequent recovery over the next two seasons yielded unconfident
results. Shrunken velocity and erratic control transformed the once vibrant
star into a hittable WHIP whale. Walks led to earned runs. Fly-balls stretched
into homers. Frustration mounted. Warren G’s time in the spotlight seemed
longer.

Though Liriano’s fantasy reputation has dipped to Erik
Bedard(notes) levels – his ADP currently stands at 220.41 (SP59) – he, in the timeless
words of Joe Biden, is once again about to become a "big (expletive)-ing
deal."

While most baseball fans were cursing Old Man Winter, the
southpaw impressively plowed through hitters in the Dominican Winter League. In
37 innings he notched a microscopic 0.49 ERA and 47:5 K:BB split. Though the
sample size was small, his stellar efforts fostered P.T.J. (Pre-Tommy John)
optimism. More importantly, he regained swagger lost.

So far this spring, the momentum has carried over. With his
slider in tiptop form, he’s humiliated hitters. Over 14 innings, he’s posted a
3.86 ERA and – keep your pants on – a 22:2 K:BB split. For the math majors in
attendance, that’s a staggering 14.14 K/9. And get this he’s still refining his
command. From MLB.com:

"In his latest outing on Thursday, Liriano
continued to stretch out as a starter throwing 67 pitches over four innings.

Liriano wasn’t quite as sharp as he had been in previous
outings, allowing three runs on seven hits over his four innings. He said he’s
still working on the location of his fastball, although it was his changeup
that wasn’t working so well this time out against the Rays.

Even without his changeup and his fastball location not quite perfect,
Liriano managed to strike out six batters over his first three innings."

Ron Gardenhire briefly flirted with the idea of converting Liriano into a
closer. But after Sunday’s announcement a dreaded bullpen-by-committee will be
employed, thoughts of the southpaw jogging in from the ‘pen to AC/DC’s "Fire your
Guns" are now deceased. Let’s be honest. He can’t hang with Jon Rauch’s(notes) trailer-tastic neck tattoo.

Many cautious owners
still consider Leery-ano tempestuous. However, the chances of him becoming a distressed
asset are minimal. Based on his lowly ADP, owners won’t be second-guessing.

With his confidence
high, velocity back and slider snapping, he could finally deliver a mammoth
return.

Liriano’s evil twin may
finally be dead.

Fearless Forecast: 159.1 IP, 11 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 153 K

—

Photo courtesy of US Presswire

In the sky blue waters off the coast of Western Florida lies a sinister creature American League hitters and bronzed Hamlins will come to fear; pre-CGI enthusiasts, who relish cheesy stop-animation graphics, will come to love.

Its name: Jeff Niemann(notes).

Overshadowed by hype machines David Price(notes) and Wade Davis(notes), the intimidating, presumably tentacled, 6-foot-9 Rays starter is a deep-round leviathan on the precipice of a breakthrough campaign.

Last season while the virtual masses slurped rookie hurlers Tommy Hanson(notes), Rick Porcello(notes) and J.A. Happ(notes), Niemann quietly compiled appreciable numbers. According to Baseball Monster, his admirable line (180.2 IP, 13 Wins, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.23 K/9) ranked ahead of notable names Cole Hamels(notes), Roy Oswalt(notes) and teammate James Shields(notes).

However, despite his initial success, relative inexperience and young age, most self-proclaimed fantasy Zeuses widely believe Niemann’s ’09 efforts were mythical. Call it a lack of "wow" factor. His strikeout totals couldn’t sniff Hanson’s, but his remaining peripherals – 1.03 GB/FB, 2.12 K/BB, 0.85 HR/9 – paint a different picture. With a few minor adjustments, a monster production leap is certainly possible. Remember, he was Tampa’s No. 1 pick (fourth overall) in 2004. Unquestionably, he has the pedigree. 

Niemann has already made one such tweak this spring. Last season, he relied primarily on fastballs, occasionally peppering in his plus slider, curve, splitter and change, to draw weak contact. In Grapefruit League action, he’s experimented with a deeper hook, featuring it earlier in counts. The pitch has left established hitters stupefied, Buddy Holly look-a-likes optimistic. From the Tampa Tribune:

"I was talking to (Tigers LF Johnny) Damon in the box, and he’s like, ‘Geez, this guy’s not giving us any chance,’ " Rays C John Jaso(notes) said…

"That’s something I’ve always liked about him, [the curve] is a pitch he can throw for strikes," Maddon said. "So when he gets behind in the count, a lot of times pitchers can’t go to that pitch because they can’t throw it for a strike. But he can, and that’s what makes him really interesting."

Because of his bargain basement sticker price (ADP: 218.92, SP55) and sensational spring production, Niemann should indeed pique owner curiosity. In 19.1 IP, he’s posted a 3.26 ERA and, get this, an 18:2 K:BB split. If he carries momentum over into the regular season, an upper-tiered No. 3 season in shallow mixed leagues is on the horizon. Don’t be afraid of his AL East address.

With a terrific minor league track-record, anchored rotation spot and plentiful run support, he could emerge a late-round legend.

It’s time to "Release the Kraken!!!"

Fearless Forecast: 199 IP, 15 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 174 K

—

Image courtesy of US Presswire

Patience simply isn’t a virtue in Fantasyland. Suffice it to
say, epic, slow-building rock masterpieces never blare on its denizens’ radios. No person should have to wait for a Jimmy Page guitar solo. 

It’s because of this incessant yearning for instant
gratification, laggard development by top prospects is typically deemed
unacceptable. High-ceiling youngsters who initially underperform are unfairly damned. As a result, expectations and price-tags the following season are often times greatly reduced.  

Texas’
Chris Davis(notes), who is currently only owned in just 47 percent of Yahoo! leagues,
is a prime example of how owner restlessness creates gigantic value.

A season ago, the Rangers’ slugger was the darling of the
fantasy sports world. Pundits and experienced players alike hoisted the future
home run king onto an unreachable pedestal, drowning the unproven commodity
in unwarranted adoration. Blessed with prodigious raw power and an everyday gig
in an RBI-friendly lineup, Davis,
it seemed, was destined to "Crush" a lot.

However, prolonged droughts spurred by a lack of plate
discipline led to a dramatic downfall. Sporting a .202 BA and dreadful 44.1
strikeout rate by the end of June, he, deservedly so, was banished north to Oklahoma City. In the eyes of the eager, his reputation was
forever tarnished. Justin Smoak(notes) would soon make him a complete afterthought.

Instead of wallowing in minor league exile, Davis, under the guidance
of OKC hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh, retooled his approach, suppressing his
overly voracious demeanor at the dish. When recalled in late August, he was a
different player compiling a .308 BA with six homers and 26 RBI in 133 at-bats. Loose-fitting fan toupees were still in peril whenever he stepped into
the box, but his 27.1 K percentage during that span was a significant
improvement.  

This past offseason, the 24-year-old continued to work hard
building on his late-season success. The results this spring have been
eye-opening. Granted it’s a small sample, but he’s collected 18 hits in 44
at-bats with two homers and 10 RBI. More importantly, he’s posted an 11:3 K:BB
split (25.0 K%). Davis
credits his cooler persona for the turnaround. From MLB.com:

"I’m a singles machine," David joked. "A couple of
those singles came with two strikes. That’s big. I’m not a stranger at swinging
at balls in the dirt, but that’s when hitting to the opposite field comes in,
not trying to do too much but just put the ball in play."

Manager Ron Washington has been impressed with his young
power hitter’s mental strides noting he’s "not over-swinging" and "controlling
the strike-zone." That frame of mind has regained the skipper’s confidence.
From the Dallas
Morning News:

"Everything he’s been through,
there’s still people who are going to doubt Chris Davis," Washington said.
"But I don’t doubt Chris Davis."

Although Washington
admittedly is a recreational "skier," his words couldn’t be truer. The fantasy
masses shouldn’t doubt Davis.
His light-tower power, shortened swing and entrenched spot batting sixth in a
loaded Rangers lineup bode well for a breakthrough campaign. With an ADP of
150.97 according to Mock Draft Central – Jorge Cantu(notes) territory – he is quite
possibly the greatest power grab in the middle rounds of mixed leagues.

Unless you’re in a deep mixed or AL-only league, Davis isn’t your primary
choice at first base. The position is brimming with boppers. But because he
also qualifies at power-strapped third, Davis, who has 686 career MLB at-bats
under his belt, is the prototype post-hype sleeper who will pay an enormous
dividend. Minus steals, a Mark Reynolds(notes)-like production leap isn’t
unfathomable.

Too bad his acquired patience won’t rub off on the fantasy
masses.

Fearless Forecast:
501 at-bats, .269 BA, 32 HR, 98 RBI, 82 R, 3 SB

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Image courtesy of Getty Images