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It’s fitting in the same week Americans recognized the 40th
anniversary of the space industry’s most "successful failure"
mission, Apollo 13, the Houston Astros were faced with an equally daunting
problem.
The difference: This year’s deplorable band of Dickie Thon
All-Stars doesn’t have the luxury of consulting rocket scientists to reach a
resolution. Where’s Glenn Davis’ beautifully parted lip raccoon when you need it most?
Still winless on the season, the ‘Stros are a Texas-sized
embarrassment. Dead last in just about every offensive category imaginable and
identically horrific in pitching, they’re on a fast-track to Chico’s Bail Bonds immortality. With an aging
lineup, laughable farm system and unreliable pitching outside Roy Oswalt(notes) and
Wandy Rodriguez(notes), Houston’s
troubles are glaring. Unsurprisingly, normally dependable options, Hunter
Pence(notes) and Carlos Lee(notes) have stumbled out of the gates.
Lee’s early season swoon in particular is worrisome. That
is, to the cursory fantasy player.
Currently hitting the equivalent weight of one Olsen twin
(.097), El Caballo appears to be one step away from the glue factory. His
unsightly strikeout percentage (29.0) and abnormally high volume of fly-outs
has severely deflated his early season worth. Most remarkable, he’s failed to
record a line-drive in 31 at-bats. The 33-year-old blames his turbulent start
on swing flaws. From the Houston
Chronicle:
"I’m not pressing at all," Lee said. "I think
that something’s going on mechanically, but I have to keep going because I have
156 more games and 580 more at-bats."
Undoubtedly, the absence of Lance Berkman(notes), who is targeting
an April 20 return, hasn’t helped.
Before impatient owners start shopping the proven outfielder
for the white-hot likes of Scott Podsednik(notes), Jorge Cantu(notes) and Vernon Wells(notes), it’s
imperative to study Lee’s past.
The three-time All-Star is a textbook consistency king.
Since 2006, he’s blasted at least 26 homers, driven in 100-plus runs and
notched a .300 BA every year. Due to his advancing age stolen base production has diminished,
a typical decline. Still, his stellar contact rates (career 85.3 CT%), RBI-friendly
spot in the order and steady peripherals suggest a sharp statistical regression
is unlikely. Keep in mind, Lee is just a career .261 hitter in April and has
played against squads with superb pitching staffs (St.
Louis, Philadelphia and San Francisco). Similar
to Mark Teixiera, he’s a notorious snail out of the gates. Excluding runs and
steals, the numbers will eventually come.
Unlike the heroic Apollo 13 crew, the ‘Stros collectively
won’t be able to avoid disaster. Triple-digit futility is very possible.
But to
the thrifty, C-Lee could be a galactic bargain.
Fearless Forecast
(full season): 603 at-bats, .296 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 64 R, 5 SB
—
CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues
Javier Vazquez(notes), NYY,
SP (96 percent-owned): The
high-priced offseason acquisition has been anything but Senor Smooth in his
first two starts. In those fruitless endeavors he’s allowed a staggering 12
runs (9:5 K:BB split) over 11 innings or the same number of runs he yielded in
the entire month of April last year. Historically, the transition from the NL
to the AL
tacks on roughly 0.50-1.00 points to a pitcher’s ERA. In Vazquez’ case it could
be significantly greater. He has a career 4.59 ERA on the junior circuit.
Better days are on the horizon, but until he hones his command additional rough
outings are in the forecast.
3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler
Johan Santana(notes), NYM
(4/17 at StL, 98 percent-owned): Can we mutually agree some of Johan’s ace
luster has worn off? Erratic in his last start against the Nationals, Santana
surrendered five runs (3:3 K:BB split) in five innings, taking the loss. The NL
Central pacesetters boast a deadly lineup. As usual, Pujols is locked in his
own universe and complementary players Matt Holliday(notes) and Ryan Ludwick(notes) are also
currently scorching. The Cardinals are averaging 5.5 runs per game. Santana’s
sinister side revealed itself on the road last season (4.09 ERA). In the Lou,
Mr. Hyde will again replace Dr. Jekyll.
SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time
Austin Jackson(notes), Det,
OF (25 percent-owned): The "action" atop the Tigers’ lineup, Jackson has opened eyes
over the season’s first two weeks. In eight games, he’s registered four
multi-hit performances. He’s failed to record a hit in a contest only once.
Suffice it to say, former Curtis Granderson(notes) supporters have confidently
switched their allegiance. But despite his stirring start, the former Yankees
top prospect is a master in the art of deception. His uncomfortable strikeout
rate (30.6 K%) combined with an inflated BABIP (.440) arrows to a BA downfall.
Simply, he has the profile of a .260 not a .300 hitter. Jim Leyland loves the
kid and his 25-30 steals potential is enticing, but a major slump or three seems
inevitable.
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Images courtesy of US Presswire, MLB.com