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Roughly 17 months ago St.
Louis rookie Jaime Garcia(notes) laid anesthetized on a
surgeon’s table. His left UCL, stressed from overwork, was in desperate need of
repair. Only a pup at 22, the Cardinals’ most promising pitching prospect had
reached a pivotal crossroads in his young professional career. Optimism turned
to uncertainty …
Jump to the present.
After two brilliant starts, the relative unknown
may soon be mentioned alongside pitching junior heartthrobs Tommy Hanson(notes), Brian Matusz(notes)
and Brett Anderson(notes). The sample size may seem insignificant, but over 13 innings
against two potent offenses (Milwaukee and New York) he’s exhibited
the polish and poise of a cagy veteran surrendering
just one run with 10 strikeouts (highlights versus Brewers/Mets
here).
Many pundits have already brushed off Garcia’s initial effort,
mislabeling it as nothing more than beginner’s luck. Even those close to the
organization have expressed cautious optimism. Still, despite the general
pessimism, the southpaw’s glowing April shouldn’t be ignored. He could be this
year’s Josh Johnson(notes).
Garcia’s rapid recovery is a testament to the advancement of
modern medicine. Thirty years ago a similar injury would’ve promptly ended a
pitcher’s career. Even in the mid-90s, the chances of full Tommy John recovery
stood at approximately 60 percent. At the time, Screech had better odds of
hooking up with Lisa Turtle.
But the former 22nd-round pick has climbed the mountain. Based
on his phenomenal first impression, rumors he received a tendon from Steve
Carlton might actually be true. His expressionless cool and systematic elimination of hitters bears a resemblence.
On paper, Garcia is a blossoming prodigy. His terrific minor
league strikeout record (8.26 K/9 over 402 IP) combined with his ability to attract weak contact is very
appealing. Though the caboose’s fastball scores average, his offspeed
offerings, particularly his cutter, are downright filthy plus pitches. Corey
Hart(notes) commented earlier this month the kid’s breaking stuff was extremely
"tough to square up." His resulting 63.8 groundball percentage this
season flashes "excitement." Cardinals GM John Mozeliak commented via email Monday the hurler’s striking initial success is primarily due to two
key factors:
"Jaime has always been impressive and adding a slider
has made him even more impressive. The big difference in Jaime is that he has
matured both physically and mentally."
Naturally, questions about Garcia’s projected workload are
unavoidable. In the recent past, pitchers who’ve undergone Tommy John have
typically taken multiple seasons to recover fully (e.g. Francisco Liriano(notes)).
However, the Cardinals aren’t married to the idea of limiting their fifth starter to a specific
innings cap.
"We don’t have an innings gauge," said Mozeliak.
"We will monitor him and make sure he is provided a safe atmosphere to
learn and grow in, without pushing him too fast."
In all likelihood, Garcia will be lucky to surpass 170
innings. Still, given his marvelous repertoire, placid demeanor and generous run
support, he could be one of the season’s surprise sensations. Having mound
Miyagi (Dave Duncan) around certainly doesn’t hurt. After all, two years ago
the esteemed pitching coach impossibly turned Todd Wellemeyer(notes) into a reliable
starter. And last season he resurrected the nearly deceased career of Joel
Pineiro(notes). The 23-year-old is a less challenging project.
Overshadowed by Chris Carpenter(notes) and Adam Wainwright(notes), Garcia is
hardly a household name. But sizzling out of the gates, the 18-percent owned hidden
treasure could soon become indispensable in mixed leagues.
Many hungry owners may be preparing to sacrifice useful apendages for Ike Davis(notes), but the St. Louis upstart could be the NL rookie
hoisting the hardware come October.
Fearless Forecast (full
season): 159.1 IP, 11 W, 3.68 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 138 K
—
Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 30 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Marlon Byrd(notes), ChC, OF
(24 percent-owned): When compared to middle digit flasher Milton Bradley(notes), Byrd is Mother Theresa. His
infectious attitude and productive play has been a breath of fresh air on the
North Side. Those who drafted him in the Old Style hazy hours of drafts house
similar feelings. Since April 12, he’s notched four multi-hit games with four
doubles, a homer and six RBI. He’ll be hard-pressed to match last year’s career
numbers playing in the National League, but very useful OF4 or UTIL totals will
likely be accumulated, especially considering his excellent peripheries. An end
line around .290-18-80-65-10 is very possible.
Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.
Livan Hernandez(notes), Was
(4/22 vs. Col, six percent-owned): Consuming week old cashew chicken may
seem less risky than trusting the services of an elderly contact pitcher who’s
posted a morbidly obese ERA since 2008. Both could lead to painful indigestion.
However, in two starts against quality opponents (Milwaukee
and New York),
the former World Series MVP has been surprisingly terrific. Though his
strikeout totals are unsightly, he’s yielded just nine hits and has yet to
allow a run over 16 innings. He also has two wins. Colorado is a formidable offensive club,
averaging 4.6 runs per game. Also, with Ubaldo Jimenez(notes) fresh off a no-no taking
the mound for the Rockies, Livan’s third
straight W could be elusive. But the crafty veteran has been untouchable. Go
ahead. Play with fire.
Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.
Carlos Villanueva(notes),
Mil (six percent-owned): Collectively, the Brewers staff may be scrapping
the bottom of the barrel. They currently rank near the league bottom in hits
and homers allowed. However, Villanueva has been a bright spot. The righty has
thrown with more power and purpose this season. Over seven innings he’s induced
numerous groundballs and posted an otherworldly 14.14 K/9. Leaning more heavily
on his curve, the 26-year-old may be reaching maturation. He, not LaTroy
Hawkins(notes), could be next in line if Trevor Hoffman’s(notes) bones finally liquefy.
—
Image courtesy of US Presswire