by Fatma Yilmaz Elmas, Tuesday, 20 April 2010
Elections in Northern Cyprus, turning into a quasi-race between supporters of the negotiation process and those who are against either the process itself or the course of process, resulted at the first round on April, 18. Dervis Eroglu won the presidential elections with just over 50% of the total vote whereas Mehmet Ali Talat was defeated by taking 42.84% of the vote in contrast to his previous victory in 2005 with an average 55%.
The issue putting its mark on the choice of the electorate and related to the following process is about in what way the negotiations will proceed. It seems that there will be no deviation from the existing will to continue the negotiations, according to Eroglu’s several speeches, previous party program and election declaration for presidency. This view was clear enough in victory speech of Eroglu after the declaration of ultimate results. In his speech, Eroglu expressed that he will not be the one who leave the negotiation table and noted that the negotiations will continue in cooperation with Turkey. However, Eroglu’s attitude is so obvious that the negotiation process will be conducted with a different perspective. Eroglu’s style seems to differ from that of Talat in terms of both way of conducting negotiations and parameters on which negotiations are based. Complaining about an opaque negotiation process during Talat era, Eroglu envisages some steps to make negotiations more transparent and open. The primary one is to form a structure similar to “National Council” in Southern Cyprus. Accordingly, it will incorporate also the government in the process and it will therefore give way to teamwork during the negotiation process instead of one-man domination.
In contrast to Talat’s vision based on bi-communal and bi-zonal federation, the basic parameter of a possible solution for Eroglu is a new partnership based on the equal political status of founding states. From this viewpoint, the foreseen federation could only be attained by evolutionary term stating with a confederational structure founded by two independent and sovereign states on the island. Therefore, it is expectable that the divergent view of Eroglu from that of Talat could force Greek leader Christofias further.
Nevertheless, the main issue on Cyprus negotiations is how the Greek side will make use of the change in Turkish presidency rather than divergent attitudes of Talat and Eroglu in respect of solution parameters. The Greek propaganda, trying to show Eroglu as if he is against any solution and to direct and convince both national and international public opinion in this way, has paid well. The news about the elections in foreign press that Eroglu is unwilling for a solution, despite his counter-speeches, shows that the Greek propaganda has been relatively successful. It will not be wrong to wait for the Greek side to try its best to strengthen this perception more in the international arena. Any future deadlocks in negotiation process could be a good tool to utilize for the Greek side in order to change its uncompromising image sticking on it after Annan Plan referenda. At this point, importance of the external dynamics comes on the scene. Without any pressure on Christofias coming from the international public opinion in favor of a possible solution, it seems so difficult to make any progress in negotiations. The process have been damaged anyhow even in Talat-Christofias period because of the inconsistencies of both rhetoric and action. Apart from the accusations of parties against one another, incompatible judicial steps of both sides about the guarantorship also harmed the process primarily. Revitalization of the process once again in real term mostly depends on the European Union which is, to a great extent, the main responsible actor for the imbalance especially in negotiation process. Needless to say, the Greek side has the EU membership card in its hand on behalf of the whole island. What more, it is about to manage to convince the international public opinion about Eroglu’s uncompromising stance on a possible solution. In such situation, it is hard to expect from the Greeks to take constructive steps without any forcible reason.
There is also another dimension on this issue, which is internal dynamics. Eroglu’s commitment to stay on the negotiation table is not enough alone to set the course of ongoing negotiations. In addition to the contribution of external dynamics, it is essential to add internal dynamics to this process. The necessity of synchronous and multi-dimensional policies including social, political, economic and judicial initiatives has been the neglected part of a possible solution for a long time. As the possible solution is only locked onto the negotiation process, the necessary reforms in order to eliminate the socio-economic asymmetry in the island in favor of the Turkish side is the most important part of such neglected point. During the presidential elections, any approaches about the internal dynamics either were not mentioned or were so weak. CTP’s (Republican Turkish Party) belief on internal dynamics of the solution and its emphasis on the need for reform in several state regulations could not be realized. Except the several sentences in CTP party program during April 2009 elections, the concept of internal dynamics has mainly remained out of the issue. However, internal dynamics is not only an element which will strengthen the hand of Turkish side on negotiation table against the Greek side, it is also a crucial concept for making projections about future as “B Plan” for Northern Cyprus in case of a possibility of cessation of the ongoing negotiations.
Important to note that, a possible deadlock in negotiation process since it turns into a race to stay just at the table seems not logical till the end. Thus, what should be done in long-term is to make strategic planning from the best to the worst case scenarios in regard to negotiations. However, this situation should not be interpreted that the negotiations have to be conducted in an insincere way. This is just an effort to transform the process, which has proceeded as a derivative just of the external dynamics for long years, into a viable solution
Fatma Yilmaz-Elmas (Mrs.)
USAK Centre for EU Studies
http://www.turkishweekly.net
