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Chaotic feelings in Fantasyland have reached a boiling
point. Planes, losing millions in revenue per day, remain grounded. Hundreds of
inconvenienced passengers are stranded. And digital downloads of bizarro songs by alt-rock yodeler Bjork
have strangely increased.
Jon Lester(notes) has erupted.
Blanketing teams in irremovable ash and soot, the treasured Boston pitcher has
devastated ERA and WHIP totals for all who invested heavy coin in him. In three
forgettable outings he’s failed to produce a quality start, yielding 15 earned
in 16 innings pitched. He’s also issued a disturbing nine walks. Only Mount Marquis
has inflicted more damage.
Owners should’ve noticed the signs. Throughout much of the
spring the popular early round pick grumbled under the surface spewing small
plumes of steam into the Florida
air. Geologists and invested followers with a keen eye for historical trends
predicted this day would come.
Becoming increasingly obvious with each passing year, Lester
apparently doesn’t relish spring. Maybe the southpaw really loathes tulips.
Over 153.1 career innings in April/May, he’s posted a paltry 4.88 ERA and 1.49
WHIP. Frustrated by his downtrodden early season consistency, the rotation
anchor has had difficulty pinpointing the struggles. From the Boston Globe:
"This year I’ve felt better coming into the
season than I have in the past. I don’t know why this has happened,"
Lester said. "I’ve thought about it a lot. If there were something I could
do in the offseason or in spring training, I would do it.""Obviously you want to start good," he said. "You always want
to get on an early run. The key to pitching is getting into a good rhythm every
five days and keeping it going. If you can do that, the more success you’ll
have.""When you’re struggling early and struggling and struggling, it’s hard
to get in that rhythm. Everything in sports is the final result. That’s the
whole thing."
Based on the historical record, Lester probably won’t immediately eradicate
his mental demons. Simply, it’s par for the course. Whether physical
limitations or psychological burdens are responsible for the star’s annual
out-of-the-gate stumble isn’t important to the fantasy community. However, how
his performance after June 1 is. It’s over that stretch where he’s cashed in tallying
a career 3.35 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Last season, he was the 15th-most valuable
starter during that span according to Baseball Monster. Due to his
groundball-inducing ways (1.38 GB/FB in ’09) and strong K/9 output (9.96), he
will right the ship soon.
Until Lester’s lava flows cool, the market for his services will continue to
favor the buyer. Impatient owners who’ve discounted him in the past will likely
do it again. Already this week he’s been dished off for Bobby Jenks(notes), Lance
Berkman(notes) and Jason
Bay(notes) in one-for-one Y!
league trades. If someone in your league is shopping the lefty, pounce.
Mount Lester’s rupture has caused irreversible
damage. But inevitably his turbulent side will once again slip into a state of
dormancy.
Fearless Forecast
(full season): 201.1 IP, 14 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 186 K
—
CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in more than 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Adam Dunn(notes), Was, 1B, OF
(92 percent-owned): For the
impatient, Dunn’s woeful April has become unbearable. Sharing a toothbrush with
Mr. Mendoza, he has notched a mere nine hits over 47 at-bats (.192 BA) with
only one homer. Prolonged cycles of boom
and bust are the norm for the slugging first baseman. Any player with a career
32.3 strikeout percentage is going to experience an epic drought or three.
Under the surface, the passive-aggressive hitter has been surprisingly patient
totaling 14 walks to 11 strikeouts. He’s also posted an uncharacteristic 77.1
contact percentage. An overly watchful eye and bad timing appear to be the
culprits for his most recent swoon. Once he adjusts, a statistical bonanza will commence. A repeat of
last year’s totals, including BA, is very likely. Buy on the bear.
3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Majority owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler
Max Scherzer(notes), Det
(4/23 at Tex,
66 percent-owned): Our gooey feelings for The Schiznit are well-documented.
Two seasons ago we penned nearly a thousand hyperbolic words on the power
righty several weeks before his major league debut. His blazing fastball, high
strikeout potential and cutie patootie dimples were just so lovable. But
sometimes love can stray. The Rangers’ have snapped out of their initial
offensive funk, totaling 13 runs over two games against the SAWKS. That
combined with the smallish feel of Rangers Ballpark means the whip could crack
on the Tigers starter. His fly-ball leaning peripheries (0.85 GB/FB) and
general good fortune (.270 BABIP) don’t inspire confidence.
SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time
Clayton
Kershaw(notes), LAD, SP (97 percent-owned): Watching
Kershaw vex hitter’s with his nasty 12-to-6 curve is a thing of beauty. The
captivating pitch is the reason why gross expectations have been placed on the
22-year-old for years. However, the unpolished southpaw has resembled Rich
Hill(notes), not Sandy Koufax, so far this season. Yes, his ERA (3.18) and K/9 (10.59)
are heart-throbbing, but his auxiliary numbers paint a very dark picture.
Clasping hands with Lady Luck (.264 BABIP), the youngster has been extremely
fortunate. His wildness (7.94 BB/9) and unsustainable 14.6 line-drive
rate arrow to future ERA inflation. Until batters nibble more on his outside
offerings, free passes will continue to be an issue. As his 5.03 FIP indicates,
the tide could soon turn.
—
Images courtesy of US Presswire