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Setting and following lofty expectations for previously
unseasoned commodities is typically a dangerous practice. Hype trains routinely
derail. Just ask the guy in your league still waiting for the Chris
Davis’(notes) 50-homer binge (The Noise reluctantly raises hand).
But the Dodgers’ John Ely(notes) is one such product worth licking
a poisonous frog to acquire.
In a city known for cultivating buzz, and
Rookie of the Year candidates, frenzied Dodger fans have again reached a
fevered pitch. Move over Fernando and Manny, Elymania has officially arrived in
Hollywood.
Acquired last December from the White Sox in the Juan Pierre(notes) deal, the unheralded prospect has
blown into Los Angeles
with the strength of the Santa Anas. Over 25.2 innings, he’s surrendered a
respectable 10 runs (3.51 ERA) with, get this, a 25:3 K:BB split. Amazingly, Ross Grimsley in 1971 is the only other pitcher since 1952 who has
pitched at least six innings without walking a batter three times in his first
four games.
Naturally, hyperbole has replaced smog over the LA skyline…
Exaggeration No. 1:
Ely was spawned from a chance encounter between Greg Maddux(notes) and Zeus.
For decades Maddux was Picasso with a glove. Despite a pedestrian
fastball, his ability to alter speeds, generate movement and paint corners made
him arguably the greatest pitcher of the 90s. Often it seemed he could hurl a
gerbil into an empty beer bottle from 60 feet away.
Though not nearly as talented, Ely evokes a similar style.
His mid-to-high 80s fastball is often deceptive, especially when combined with
offspeed junk. Many times this young season, he’s humiliated opponents mixing
fastballs with changeups – his best offering (highlights here).
On the farm,
the rookie’s command wasn’t nearly as sharp (4.02 BB/9). Still, many scouts
widely believed he would develop into a control freak. Most probably never figured it would come this quickly.
Exaggeration No. 2:
Not even "The Big One" could rattle Ely’s confidence.
Poised on the mound, the 24-year-old believes he can
dominate anyone. Despite being more of a finesse pitcher, he attacks hitters
aggressively, coaxing abundant weak contact (1.16 GB/FB). From ESPN Los Angeles:
"I’m just out here doing what I have always done,"
Ely said. "I just have complete confidence in what I bring to the table
and the fact that if I execute my pitches the way I want to, I feel like I have
the advantage. That is the way you have to feel every time out. If you doubt
yourself, you’re going to give up hits…""We knew what we were getting in Ely, but we never
expected to see him here this quickly," Dodgers general manager Ned
Colletti said. "He knows how to pitch. This is the way he has pitched his
whole life. From my first conversation with him the night we acquired him [on
Dec. 17], you could tell there was a specialness about him."
As a result of his blue collar approach and intense
attitude, Ely simply wins, which he’s done often since his high school days in
suburban Chicago.
Double-digit Ws at the big league level could become routine.
Exaggeration No. 3:
Ely is so fantastically attractive Alyssa Milano is contemplating divorce.
The smokin’ Dodgers fanatic may not be the only one. Mixed
leaguers who’ve suffered through horrific starts by Josh Beckett(notes), Javier
Vazquez(notes) and Jake Peavy(notes) have understandably sought legal counsel. Because of his
plentiful offensive support, division and pitcher friendly surroundings, there’s
plenty to like. After another mesmerizing start or two, Wooderson wigs (Sans
‘stache, Ely bears a remarkable resemblance) might soon replace Manny dreads in
leftfield. "All right" feelings will surely follow.
However, in this day and age of advanced scouting, opponents
can masterfully outmaneuver even the super, let alone the marginally, talented.
As with any inexperienced player, it’s important to keep in mind turbulence should be expected. But if he continues to exhibit Nolasco-esque accuracy,
banner back of the rotation numbers could be achieved in 12-team mixed leagues.
Right now, he’s slightly more rosterable than fellow NL rookie Mike Leake(notes).
Buying into hype can often lead owners down Disappointment Street.
But Ely’s strong peripherals, above average pedigree and ideal pitching
environment make the eight-percent owned starter well worth the risk.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 131 IP, 7 W, 3.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 116 K
—
Discount Den
Quality commodity owned
in fewer than 20 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
Corey Patterson(notes), Bal,
OF (one-percent owned): It seems laughable writing anything positive about Peppermint Patterson. After all, the only accolade he’s recently earned was an All-Handsome Man nomination in 2006. But Seattle’s discarded trash – Patterson failed
to make the team this spring – is treasure for the flightless Orioles.
Baltimore’s latest leadoff man has scorched since his promotion on May 12
going 8-for-26 with two homers, two RBI, eight runs and two steals. Despite a
woeful .291 OBP, Patterson, at 30, still boasts NASCAR wheels. In his last
season with the O’s in ’07, he swiped 37 bags. Owners with a need for speed
should invest, but keep in mind a BA freefall is likely.
Ooh Stream Weaver…
Widely available plug
n’ play starter heading into the weekend.
Jason Vargas(notes), Sea
(5/20 vs. Tor, 21-percent owned): Quietly the Seattle southpaw has amassed sensational
numbers. In seven starts, he’s accumulated a 2.93 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with three
wins. An increased reliance on changeups has led to a spike in K/9 and
groundball percentage. However, his 13.2 line-drive rate and .231 BABIP suggest
an ERA correction will be coming soon. However, don’t expect a regression against the
free-swinging Jays. Collectively, the Canadian Birds are batting .244. Vargas’
stellar stretch of quality starts at Safeco (2.00 ERA, .163 BAA) should
continue.
Middle Relief Magic
ERA/WHIP savior,
potential saves/wins vulture.
Clay Hensley(notes), Fla (three-percent
owned): Playing in front of mosquito hoards instead of fans, the converted starter
has pitched brilliantly in middle relief. Over 21.2 IP, he’s notched an
uncharacteristic 12.05 K/9 (career 6.12). Looking under the hood, his heavy
change/curve use is responsible for the strikeouts jump. Hitters have nibbled
at his offspeed offerings, especially outside, with minimal success. Because
he misses bats and induces numerous groundball outs, spotless performances
could easily continue. He’s the super absorbent Band-Aid to apply to a bleeding staff.
—
Images courtesy of US Presswire/MLB.com