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When
compared to other major sports, baseball is more individualistic. Even the most
casual fans are obsessed with specific player achievement. Cursory questions around
office water coolers typify this common perception:
Did A-Rod go yard today? How many Ks
did Tim Lincecum(notes) rack last night? Milton Bradley(notes) dropped how many F-bombs?
However,
when it comes to pitchers, the game, similar to the rest of the Big Four, is
unmistakably team oriented. Often times, a starter is only as good as the sum
of all parts.
Arizona’s Dan Haren(notes) knows the feeling.
The popular
early round choice, who historically has been one of virtual baseball’s most
dependable April/May performers, has struggled mightily out of the gates.
Though his K/9, which has steadily risen in seven consecutive seasons,
currently stands at a career-best 9.35, his walks and HR/FB percentage are up
significantly. The upswings in those critical areas have inflated his ERA to an
unsavory 4.83.
As with any
pitcher, Haren is responsible for specific statistical outcomes. But Arizona’s historically
bad bullpen is beginning to take a psychological toll on the three-time All-Star.
If the
righty logged long sessions on Freud’s couch, he would likely admit to haunting
nightmares involving late-inning implosions. Chad Qualls(notes) (7.07 ERA) and Juan Gutierrez(notes)
(8.62), among others, are real-life bogeymen. Only cackling circus clowns
riding Great White Sharks are more frightening.
Arizona’s fangless ‘pen is on pace to be one
of the worst in baseball history. Over 109.1 innings, the despicable unit has
posted a 7.90 ERA. That’s over 1.70 average runs allowed more than the
second-worst backend staff in the league, Milwaukee.
If the D-Backs continue at that level of generosity, they will be the first
team since 1930 to finish a season with a bullpen ERA above 7.00. Torched by
the long-ball, walks and wildness, the Snakes, suffice it to say, are Shawn
Kemp slutty.
Cerebrally,
Haren is a train-wreck right now. Outward looks of pain and anguish have become
commonplace. After his last start, definitely one of the worst of his desert
career (4.1 IP, 6 ER at Atl), dejection replaced confidence. From MLB.com:
"That’s as bad as I’ve been as a Diamondback probably,"
Haren said. "I didn’t have it. Nothing behind the ball. I was in trouble
early, couldn’t put anyone away. I was really pitching with the cutter. That
was the only thing I really had. Struggled to throw strikes. I guess it was
just one of those days. It definitely didn’t feel good.""Warming up in the bullpen, I didn’t feel great, but a
lot of times you go out there and figure it out," Haren said. "I was
really fighting myself. I was looking for stuff that wasn’t there."
Plagued by
plain bad luck (.357 BABIP) and poor end-game support, his overall worth should
be substantially higher. According to Baseball Monster, he’s currently the
67th-best starter in fantasy. Still, the consummate teammate isn’t pointing
fingers at the deserving. Instead, he’s placing blame on himself. From Fox
Sports Arizona:
"I haven’t
pitched well enough. I’ve had my struggles. I’ve given up a lot of hits, more
than I am accustomed to. I’m frustrated. I need to get better," he said.
Team-wide
inconsistencies are obviously battering Haren mentally. Outside two ERA-bashing
starts, he’s pitched extraordinarily well. His increased reliance on cutters
and splitters outside the zone has routinely perplexed hitters. As his 3.56 FIP
implies, a positive ERA correction is imminent, especially toeing the rubber
often against other NL West members. A turnaround should be expected, but keep
in mind the righty has historically stumbled down the stretch. After the break,
he’s notched a career 4.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP (3.23, 1.08 Pre). Regardless of the
track-record, opportunistic owners should pounce.
Yogi Berra
once said, "Ninety percent of the game is half mental." Unless Saul
Rivera(notes), Carlos Rosa(notes) and Cesar Valdez(notes) miraculously reverse the bullpen’s
misfortunes, Haren’s value, specifically in wins, could remain in a straight jacket.
Fearless Forecast (rest of season):
168.1 IP, 9 W, 3.34 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 161 K
—
CATEGORY KILLER
Vampiristic commodity sucking
the life out of your team owned in a majority of Yahoo! leagues.
Gordon Beckham(notes), ChW,
2B/3B (51-percent owned): Do you believe in sophomore slumps? Beckham has
destroyed more franchises than Megan Fox’s "acting" ability. The multi-positional
infielder has recorded just five two-plus hit games this year. He also has the
same number of extra-base knocks as marooned first baseman Chris Davis(notes). An
increase in strikeout percentage (23.1) and reversal in GB/FB (1.29) are to
blame statistically for Beckham’s swoon. Though he sat the past two games in
favor of mummified veteran Omar Vizquel(notes), Ozzie Guillen remains loyal to the youngster as
his everyday second baseman. Due to his sluggish start, he won’t be able to
meet the lofty year-two expectations pundits placed preseason, but he’s far too talented not to rebound.
3…2…1…IMPLOSION!
Widely owned starter
who will soon maim an innocent Gatorade cooler
Yovani Gallardo(notes), Mil
(5/22 at Min, 98 percent-owned): Gallardo will likely become the 16th
pitcher in big league history to toss a perfect game. As the peanut gallery
screamed last week, our negative commentary on Ricky Romero(notes) spurred the Jays
starter to the greatest start of his young career. Still, El Chupacabra’s
matchup is unfavorable. The Twins have played brilliantly at home indicative in
their 12-6 record. Ten times they’ve reached the five run mark at Target Field.
Gallardo has walked a tightrope for much of the season, indicative in his
unsettling 4.92 BB/9 and 25.6 line-drive rate. Eventually the free
passes/hard contact combination will come back to haunt him. Though he’s been almost
untouchable on the road (1.86 ERA, 41 K in 29 IP), the peripheries suggest a
rough outing or two are ahead.
SABER SLEUTH
Uncovering fantasy’s
lucky bastards one decimal place at a time
Alfonso Soriano(notes), ChC,
OF (89-percent owned): Thus far, the Noise has been very wrong about Fonzy.
As an adoring Cubs fan, we’re pleased the reverse psychology has worked.
Swinging the bat with renewed vigor, he’s notched a .320 BA with seven homers
and 23 RBI. Still, Soriano has benefited from Lady Luck. His .370 BABIP and
25.3 line-drive percentage are unsustainable. Striking out at a similar clip as
last season and pulling the ball more (0.48 GB/FB), a BA regression to the
.275-.285 range is likely. You have to like his improvement with sliders over
the outer portion, but Soriano isn’t going to establish new career benchmarks
in hits and BA at 34. When it’s all said and done, the difference between him
and Jonny Gomes(notes) might be closer than you think.
—
Image courtesy of the AP