Known as the Sacagawea of fantasy primers, the Weekly Rundown guides
head-to-head owners through a forest of obscure stats and exploitable
matchups in an attempt to help solve lineup conundrums. While reading,
keep in mind matchups are subject to change due to managerial moves,
unforeseen injuries and Mother Nature’s influence.
When Colorado’s
Jeff Francis(notes) entered the league in 2004 he was ranked ahead of contemporary fantasy superstars Josh Johnson(notes), Adam Wainwright(notes) and teammate
Ubaldo Jimenez(notes). Named Baseball America’s
Minor League Player of the Year that season, the southpaw was destined to
develop into a franchise cornerstone. Equipped with a devastating change,
filthy slider and deceptive high-80s fastball, the hyped prospect certainly had
the stuff to live up to mammoth expectation.
As with any elite pitching prospect not named Strasburg (We
can only assume success will come easily for Washington’s alien life-form), Francis’
transition to the big league grind was arduous. Though he won 14 games in his
first full season in ’05, his 5.68 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 1.83 K/BB left a lot to
be desired.
After a positive step forward in ’06, the Canadian import
finally took a major developmental leap during the Rockies’
World Series season. During that memorable campaign hitters transformed into flashing
dots and the youngster Pac-Man. He won 17 games, notched his best K/9 to date
(6.90), sliced down the free passes (2.63 BB/9) and devoured innings (215). His
growing command combined with an excellent groundball rate pointed to future vibrant campaigns.
Then the injury imp sharpened its teeth.
Francis, who underachieved throughout the ’08 season,
succumbed to the sinister creature’s bite in September suffering a significant
shoulder setback. After a brief non-surgical rehab attempt, he
eventually opted to go under the knife the following February, ending his ’09
season before it even started.
Historically the chances of pitchers returning to a
formidable level after shoulder reconstruction are minimal. Erik Bedard(notes) is a
prime example. But, so far, the Noise’s hairier, slightly wealthier twin (see right) has defied the
odds.
Saturday afternoon in Kansas
City, the veteran painted his second straight
masterpiece. Over 6.1 innings, he held the Royals scoreless, surrendering five
hits, two walks with three strikeouts, netting his first win since August 25, 2008.
Yes, he’s faced meek competition (Washington
and Kansas City),
but the former first-round pick appears to have regained his dependable form.
Abandoning his slider and cutter, he’s relied solely on three pitches — 86-89
mph fastball, curve and change — to generate weak contact. The scaled back
repertoire has worked flawlessly. In 13.1 innings, he’s allowed zero homers and
compiled a 1.75 GB/FB ratio.
There are numerous under-owned
commodities more viable than Francis (13-percent owned) wading in free agent
pools in several leagues – Derek Holland(notes) (17-percent) immediately comes to mind. But for
challenged owners looking for a backend difference-maker, the once highly
touted lefty is demanding your attention. Keep in mind he does have plenty of run support and plays in a favorable division.
Call Francis’ return to respectability just another Colorado comeback.
Fearless Forecast
(rest of season): 138 IP, 8 W, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 104 K
QUICK HITTERS
(Tidbits from Saturday’s slate): The Piano Man may soon sing a regretful
tune about Gordon Beckham(notes). After Saturday’s 1-for-2 (two runs, one SB) tally
against the Marlins, he’s hit safely in five of his last eight. Ozzie Guillen
will likely keep the sophomore infielder in the nine-hole until his bat
fully awakens. But once it does, he will almost certainly be reinserted into the two
spot. Pianow’s argument for severing the cord was justified, but Beckham’s
top-flight pedigree will soon resurface…It appears Adam Jones(notes) has finally
emerged from hibernation. Baltimore’s Teddy Ruxpin
smacked his fifth homer of the season, a two-run shot off Washington’s Craig Stammen(notes). He’s homered in
consecutive games and has recorded a hit in nine straight contests…In a
pitcher’s duel featuring Catfish Hunter and Gaylord Perry Gio Gonzalez(notes)
and Matt Cain(notes), the A’s starter bested his interleague archrival hurling eight
shutout innings (2 HA, 1 BB, 5 K). Neo Gio can be a bit erratic, but he’s
quietly undergoing a breakthrough season. Trim down the walks (4.44 BB/9
entering Saturday) and he could develop into a strong mixed league No. 2…
A bloop single by Juan Castro(notes) in the eighth robbed Daisuke Matsuzaka(notes) of baseball history. The Sox starter dominated powerhouse Philadelphia allowing just one hit with four walks and five Ks. The near milestone was his second quality start in five tries. Dice-K’s air-heavy GB/FB and high walks are a concern, but his unfortunate BABIP and strong K/9 gives him upside…The Mancrush Curse was squelched – at least for one outing. John Ely(notes) continued to save whales and fantasy rosters limiting the Tigers to two earned runs over six innings (8 H, 1 BB, 3 K, W). Do you believe yet?…Brennan Boesch(notes) cracked his fourth homer of the season. Including a run-scoring groundout, he elevated his RBI total to 22, the same number as Justin Upton(notes)…The Edwin Encarnacion(notes) slugfest continued as the third baseman won the heated battle of Edwins taking Jackson deep for a three-run shot. Travis Snider(notes) may lose PT if Easy E and Jose Bautista(notes) continue to touch ’em all…Drew Stubbs’(notes) epic whiffs and Mendoza-hugging BA are an eyesore but he continues to remain productive in other key categories. He became the 13th player this season to eclipse double-digits in steals swiping bags Nos. 10 and 11 against Cleveland. The outfielder is currently on a 15-40 pace.
PULLS, STRAINS AND REHAB
GAINS (Injury news and notes): Brad Penny’s(notes) "grade 1" lat strain,
likely suffered during his grand salami off Joel Pineiro Friday, has forced the
valuable hurler to the 15-day DL. Rookie P.J. Walters(notes), who’s been untouchable
at Triple-A Memphis
(18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 23K), earns the promotion and should see action
as a starter. On Saturday versus the Angels, he allowed two earned over four
innings with two walks and two Ks. Based on the 25-year-old’s career 1.43 GB/FB
and 8.40 K/9 on the farm, he’s worth a look in NL-only formats…Aramis Ramirez(notes),
who’s seemingly been frozen in carbonite all year, is have difficulty swinging
bat due to a thumb injury. Blame his inglorious Golden Sombrero effort in Texas on the setback…J.A. Happ(notes) threw an encouraging bullpen
session on Friday and could begin a rehab assignment late this week. Charlie
Manuel hopes to have the second-year start back sometime in early June…Miguel
Montero(notes) is approximately two weeks away from activation. The backstop, currently
44-percent owned, is worth snatching up if Mike Napoli’s(notes) BA is crushing your
soul…Jimmy Rollins(notes) should avoid busy streets, raucous clubs and Pet a Lion Day
at the Philly zoo over the next couple weeks. The unlucky shortstop was placed
back on the 15-day DL with a calf strain. The former NL MVP hopes to return
when eligible in two weeks…The world is officially right once again! Eric
Chavez(notes) has fulfilled his yearly destiny. Mr. Glass was placed on the 15-day DL
with girl neck spasms. Rejoice!
DOUBLE DIPPERS
For stream conscious owners
who want to push the innings-pitched envelope this is the list for you.
Run support, ballpark factors, historical and recent trends, opposing
offenses, opposing SPs, managerial tendencies and meteorological
influences are painstakingly taken into account to give you the top
double dippers of each week.
Other AL Double Dippers: None
Other NL Double Dippers: Ramon Ortiz(notes), LAD (at ChC, at Col), Kenshin Kawakami(notes), Atl (at Fla, Pit), Brian Burres(notes), Pit (at Cin, at Atl), R.A. Dickey(notes), NYM (Phi, at Mil)
FEAST OR FAMINE?
Torn between two
stat-similar infielders this week? Use the pitching and hitting staff
sorters below to help you decide whether or not Adam LaRoche(notes)
or Carl Pavano(notes)
is fantasy feast or famine. Stats are for games played through May 22:
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Image courtesy of the AP