Sophomore slumps, like unicorns, El Chupacabra and PED-free late-90s sluggers, are mythical. At least, that’s what fantasy MDs Brad Evans and Andy Behrens think. Evidently, neither hoarded overproduced Upper Deck rookie cards of Bob Hamelin. Separated by a mere six positions in average drafts, second-year stars Gordon Beckham(notes) and Andrew McCutchen(notes) are valued similarly by mixed leaguers. But our experts vehemently disagree.
Evans shouts: Whenever the name Gordon Beckham is muttered on Chicago’s South Side, Sox fans immediately drop to their knees. Though he’s only logged 378 big league at-bats, the 23-year-old is already considered baseball royalty.
Owners who acquire the youngster’s services in the middle rounds will also worship him.
Despite a horrifically slow start last year, the former Georgia Bulldog commanded the fantasy masses’ attention almost immediately. After the break he batted .269 with 11 homers, 43 RBIs, 41 runs and five steals – a line which ranked one spot behind Pablo Sandoval(notes) among third basemen. Extrapolate his full ’09 contribution over 550 at-bats and his numbers were comparable to Ben Zobrist(notes), Lance Berkman(notes) and Torii Hunter(notes).
Based on his uncharacteristically low 16.6 line-drive percentage, his average was artificially low. If his LD rate climbs back to minor league norms, a .285-plus BA is very possible. Playing a full season in the hitter-friendly Cell should also boost his long-ball totals. However, expected to bat second in the Sox lineup, his 90-run potential will come at an RBI cost, similar to McCutchen.
This season, value finds at middle infield are more common than scandalous politicians in Illinois, but Beckham is an incredibly rare talent with a Chase Utley(notes)-high ceiling. Though he’s currently only eligible at third base in Yahoo! leagues, his transition from the hot corner to second base greatly enhances his already stellar upside. McCutchen will be a sensational producer, but Becks’ flexibility and 20-25 HR production sways the Noise.
Behrens barks: Let’s not pretend this argument is strictly about upside – although if it were, I’d still take McCutchen. We’re dealing with a pair of second-year players who are being drafted as fantasy starters. There’s downside risk to consider. As a general rule, you shouldn’t put yourself in a position where you absolutely need a very young player to repeat or exceed the prior year’s production.
Yet this is exactly how early drafters are treating Beckham. What many perceive as his greatest strength – eligibility at two talent-scarce positions – is going to be a significant problem if he happens to struggle in his age-23 season. You’ll hate the free agent landscape at 2B and 3B if he fails to produce. If McCutchen disappoints, filling an OF spot won’t be nearly as tricky.
But obviously I don’t think McCutchen will disappoint. He was immediately fantasy-relevant when called up last June, and his rookie numbers were perfectly in line with his five-year professional track record. Over 2223 career minor league plate appearances, McCutchen had hit .286/.362/.423, swiping at least 20 bases in three straight seasons (and you’ll recall that he was always among the youngest players at his level). Then, in 493 PAs for the Bucs, he hit .286/.365/.471 and stole 22 bags. It was basically a typical McCutchen season that happened to take place in Pittsburgh, not Altoona. His BABIP wasn’t exceptional by his standards and he never had an off-month. He’s for real. McCutchen gets a significant edge over Beckham in both runs and steals for 2010, and a massive edge in risk/reward.
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Images couresty of US Presswire