Last season, pivot men Aaron Hill(notes) and Robinson Cano(notes) experienced a major power reconstruction. Both players shattered previous career highs in homers. Separated by a measly three picks according to early draft returns (Hill ADP: 51, Cano: 48), the fantasy community views the intradivisional rivals similarly. However, our Docs completely disagree. Brad Evans and Brandon Funston apply the stethoscope to paper and offer up their diagnoses.
Evans boasts:
A season ago everything finally came together for Hill. After an injury-marred 2008, the numerous doubles he compiled the year before stretched out. As a result, he established new career benchmarks in homers, RBI and runs. Overall, his ‘09 output ranked second only to Chase Utley(notes) at his position and 20th against the entire hitting field. His 36 bleacher deposits tied Ja(y)sons Bay and Werth.
"Never pay for career year" advocates will argue his 14.9 HR/FB percentage is completely unsustainable. Their perspective isn’t outlandish. Repeating last year’s numbers will be a very difficult task. However, Hill’s terrific contact numbers, excellent GB/FB splits, prime age (28) and comfort level as the Jays No. 2 hitter, a position Cito Gaston declared he will remain this season, are radiant positives. Even if he experienced a fallback, 25-30 bombs with 90-plus runs, 85-plus RBI and a batting average near .290 appear inevitable, especially in a lineup loaded with above average power hitters.
Cano is a superb producer whose contributions in BA, RBI and runs will be similar despite batting near the bottom of the Yankees order. Due to New York’s bevy of ball crushers, it’s a forgone conclusion. However, his career 1.58 GB/FB ratio (1.39 last season) suggest a lower power ceiling. Unquestionably, Hill will have a sizable advantage in the home run category.
Count Chocula will side with Cano’s consistency and pristine health. But for the Noise, maximum power at second base is a luxury. Advantage Hill.
Funston blasts:
Both Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill are coming off career-best seasons. But Cano’s peak performance came as part of a natural career progression, whereas Hill’s line spiked like he’d just been shot with adrenalin in the heart, Pulp Fiction style.
Cano had a HR/FB rate of 13% in ’09 en route to his 25 HRs, which was at least in the neighborhood of his ’06 and ’07 rates (12.3% and 11.5%). And it’s easy to look at a favorable home park (.541 SLG%) and maturation to explain the boost. Hill’s HR/FB rate (14.9%) was more than 6% better than his previous high (8.6%), and he did this without a significant change in his other plate metrics. In other words, a 36-HR repeat is unlikely – low-to-mid 20s power is his more logical 2010 destination.
That puts Cano and Hill on an equal power level, and this debate comes down to RBI/R production and batting average – both players are SB non-factors.
You can make a case that the RBI/R production will be similar, with Hill occupying a better spot in the order, but Cano sitting in a much deeper lineup – NY outscored Toronto by 117 runs in ’09.
In the end, it comes down to batting average, where Cano has the decisive advantage. He’s hit .297 or better in all but one of five seasons. Hill’s never hit that high.
And it certainly helps Cano’s cause that his track record easily explains how he got here – he’s a much smaller leap of faith than Toronto’s ’09 wonder.
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Photo via US Presswire