Author: Serkadis

  • Money Back Letter

    04.14.10 04:10 PM posted by vojtnat

    Money Back Letter


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  • Easy Home Work Outs

    04.14.10 04:57 PM posted by bingfree

    Easy Home Work Outs


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  • Coral Calcium Free Earn Money

    04.14.10 07:06 PM posted by berwanat

    Coral Calcium Free Earn Money


    <a href="http://seachtop.com/tds/go.php?sid=4&q=coral%2Bcalcium%2Bfree%2Bearn%2Bmon ey"><strong> >>> Coral Calcium Free Earn Money > Click here to proceed

  • New, compact, room controller system: SaiaPCD7.L79x

    for more individual comfort and energy efficiency in your building

    The greatest potential energy saving lies in the field of networked room automation and the parameters under which it is used. Even today, temperature, lighting, shade and ventilation facilities are still insufficiently linked for existing synergies to be exploited. Each facility can in itself operate with energy efficiency. However, only by networking systems together will optimum energy efficiency be achieved, representing many times that of individual components.

    The new PCD7.L79x series of “compact room controllers” can offer excellent networkability and so allow optimum synergy between HEAVAC and electrical facilities. The PCD7.L79x product portfolio contains diverse variants that give users great flexibility to meet specific requirements with the best price/performance ratio. With their closed housing and compact construction, use of these room controllers can be both flexible and space-saving, thereby economizing installation costs.

    The room controllers have integral software modules with parameters that can easily be adjusted for the most diverse fields of application via integral function blocks (F-Boxes) in the automation system. This allows the user, on the basis of a single controller platform, to set parameters for widely different applications.
    Practical function modules (F-Boxes) reduce engineering time and simplify commissioning, because in just one step configuration data can be sent via the communications interface to up to 127 controllers.

    This great flexibility at an attractive price – combined with the savings on engineering time – amounts to a good price/performance ratio for applications in hotels, hospitals, offices, residential buildings, and similar areas.

  • Crowcon’s TXgard IS+ Intrinsically Safe Detector Now UL Certified

    -Global certifications allow use in Zone 0, 1 and 2 or Division 1 or 2 hazardous areas-

    Crowcon’s intrinsically safe TXgard-IS+ gas detector is fitted with electrochemical sensors which enable it to detect a wide range of toxic gases and oxygen. Gases detected include those commonly found in industrial applications such as carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), chlorine (Cl2), ammonia (NH3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and oxygen (O2).

    Already certified to ATEX and IECEx standards, the addition of UL certification means the TXgard IS+ can now be used globally, including North America, the Middle East and South East Asia in Zone 0, 1 or 2 or Division 1 or 2 hazardous areas when used with a safety barrier (zener barrier or galvanic isolator).

    Typical environments where the Txgard IS+ can be used include plastic, rubber, chemical and semiconductor manufacturing plants, water and sewage treatment plants, steel manufacturing facilities, oil and gas drilling and processing facilities, car parks and tunnels.

    Tough and hard-wearing, with IP65 ingress protection, the Txgard-IS+ already has a proven track record in industrial and offshore oil and gas installations worldwide. Simple to operate, it has an intuitive display menu and keypad which enables simple maintenance and which provides comprehensive diagnostic facilities which allow true, one-person non-intrusive calibration.

    The detector has configurable display options and configurable fault and inhibit currents. Also, by displaying line voltage, there is no need to access test points inside the unit. In addition, the signal current can be ramped manually to a desired value to simplify commissioning with control panels.

    Sensor signals are temperature compensated and the device is compatible with virtually any 4-20mA control system. Unlike some 4-20mA gas detectors featuring LCD displays and keypads, the Txgard IS+ combines its power and signal in just two wires, so only one zener barrier is required.

  • 1.27mm Pitch Secure Space Saving Jumper cables

    Nicomatic CrimpFlex™ 1.27mm pitch jumper cables offer lightweight flat flexible cables with robust crimp of contacts. These cables provide a solution for confined space requirements and with the ability to bend and flex, can replace round cables in many applications. Nicomatic is the only supplier worldwide who manufactures both FFC and interconnects, we can supply standard and custom designs fast and cost effectively.

    Nicomatic jumper cables are made of flat cables (flat tinned copper conductors laminated between 2 layers of polyester – PEN and Polyimide options as well) crimped with CRIMPFLEX™ male solder-tabs or female tin or gold plated connectors. The housings produced are side to side & end to end stackable. Connectors are available in standard or latching styles in one or two rows up to 100 ways (50 positions per row). 1.27mm pitch jumper cables answer the miniaturization needs and offer an excellent more robust alternative to existing higher pitch market solutions or ZIF/LIF connector solutions. Value added services like labelling and shielding also available.

    NICOMATIC CRIMPFLEX™ connectors and jumper cables offer the market the best technical specification; with high mechanical strength and low contact resistance:
    – 15mOhm resistance instead of 25mOhm = 60% better than what can be found on the market place
    – 3A direct current rating per contact is the same level of performance as that of the 2.54mm pitch
    – 19N contact retention force far better than ZIF/LIF and other existing solutions

    Nicomatic will also be supplying, 1.27mm headers and later in 2010 making us truly the one stop shop.

  • EBI 100 data logger is successor to the popular EBI 85 A and EBI 125 A-Series

    ebro has a new data logger model EBI 100 as successor to the popular EBI 85 A and EBI 125 A-series

    These improvements were realized:

    · a user-exchangeable battery
    · a larger memory capacity 27.000 measured values
    · faster communication (read-out completed in 3 seconds)

    The accessories for the EBI 100 (interface, software) are the same as for the modern EBI 10 data loggers with radio technology.

    The EBI 100 is available in many different versions with external probes and also in a temperature/pressure version.

  • SIL725 Safety Annunciator applications in Nuclear Industry

    SIL725 Safety Annunciator applications in Nuclear Industry
    Safety is of paramount importance in the nuclear industry and a key component in nuclear safety systems is the alarm annunciator. Alarm annunciators are considered vital tools in modern safety systems because they provide an additional layer of protection in the safety strategy on the plant. Now that functional safety issues are gaining importance, these concepts are been applied to all modern control equipment and IEC61508 is the acceptable international standard which deals with the functional safety of electrical or electronic safety-related systems. It is often a requirement for all safety-related equipment to comply with the SIL requirements of IEC61508. The new SIL725 Safety Annunciator from RTK Instruments complies with IEC 61508 and has a safety integrity level of SIL2.

    Given the growing emphasis on functional safety assessment and risk reduction, and the importance of the role of annunciators in safety planning, the combination of user flexibility and SIL2 certification in the SIL725 Safety Annunciator will be very valuable to all those involved in instrumentation in the worldwide process industry, and particularly the nuclear industry.

    Please contact any prospects in the nuclear industry and introduce the SIL725 to them as well as to other prospects who may require annunciators as part of a Safety Instrumented System (SIS).

  • Revista porno pentru orbi

    tactile-minds_1De ceva vreme incoace nu mai pot sa zic ca le-am auzit pe toate. Viata vrea sa ma contrazica la fiecare pas !
    Si da ! Ati citit bine. S-a lansat o revista porno pentru ORBI ! Dintre toate tampeniile pe care le-am auzit, asta tinde sa le intreaca pe toate.

    Revista contine text in limbajul Braille si 17 fotografii. Printre fotografii se numara o femeie cu “sanii perfecti” … Imaginati-va !

    “Cartea Tactile Minds a fost creata de un artist plastic din Toronto, Lisa Murphy, si costa 150 de euro.”

    Autoarea a declarat ca aparitia acestei carti era deja o necesitate si acopera o “gaura” pe piata pentru ca nu se gasea nimic similar, care sa-i poata multumi si pe orbi.
    Revista Playboy are o editie pentru orbi insa contine numai text.

    Ati auzit vreodata o tampenie mai mare ca asta ? De parca nu este destul sa fii orb … Sunt sigur ca singura lor grija este exact asta : o revista porno creata special pentru ei !
    Lumea o ia razna ! Rau de tot !!!

    Sursa : AICI

    Trimite si prietenilor:





    Related posts:

    1. 10 Sfaturi pentru 2009
    2. Industria porno
    3. Nikita,eleva porno,manele
  • Stellar Results at Focus Fusion Trials




    This article provides much more detail on the ongoing work with the focus fusion device.  It is technical but also easily understood if you have seen the picture show.  I have posted all that.   So far it is clearly exceeding expectations and that must mean that so far effects not incorporated in theoretical work are affecting the process positively.
    Sometimes a design just feels right and this one smells a bit like that.  It is presently behaving that way.
    Time frames seem to be narrowing down.  If it continues to go so well, we could have real answers toward the end of the year.  Of course a glitch can change that overnight.
    The project certainly deserves financial backing and I can appreciate the frustration expressed over the application of the sophisticated investor rule.  Yet that rule was never meant to prevent a knowledgeable investor making an investment.  It was meant to prevent loosey – goosey selling tactics.    Regardless of the declarations put together by lawyers, it depends on the investor making the declaration that he is a sophisticated investor and is quite prepared to lose all the money.  And quite bluntly, anyone following this today is technically sophisticated and well equipped to understand the proposition.     
    As I have posted before this design configuration is ideal for mobile systems and that makes it important.          
    April 13, 2010
    Eric Lerner’s Lawrenceville Plasma Physics (LLP) is developing a dense plasma focus fusion reactor, to use proton-boron (pB11) fuel. Lerner’s work was initially funded by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and is now investor-funded.  The project is aiming to produce an extremely economical, compact, environmentally safe and essentially inexhaustible source of energy.  The projections can get to 10% of the current cost for electrical power production.
    Earlier in the experimental program Lerner’s team had already achieved major experimental milestones, including the achievement of plasma confinement at energies equivalent to two billion degrees, high enough to fuse hydrogen and boron.  They are carrying out new experiments with their “Focus-Fusion-1” (FF1) experimental device in Middlesex, NJ.
    The current story begins in December 2008 as Lerner and his new team initiated its planned two-year experiment after receiving $1.2 million from private investors and The Abell Foundation.  Two plasma physicists joined Lerner on the experimental team, Dr. XinPei Lu for a period and Dr. Krupakar Murali Subramanian.
    Dr. Subramanian was Senior Research Scientist, AtmoPla Dept., and BTU International Inc., in N. Billerica, Massachusetts. He worked for five years on the advanced-fuel Inertial Electrostatic Confinement device at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, where he received his PhD in 2004 and where he invented new plasma diagnostic instruments.
    To help in the design of the capacitor bank, LPP hired a leading expert in dense plasma focus design and experiment, Dr. John Thompson.  Dr. Thompson has worked for over twenty years with Maxwell Laboratories and Alameda Applied Sciences Corporation to develop pulsed power devices, including dense plasma focus and diamond switches.
    By January of 2010 the first preliminary evidence appeared that Focus-Fusion-1 is producing high-energy ions.  This evidence indicates that, even operating well below its intended current, FF-1 has produced ions with an average energy of at least 45 keV, the equivalent of half a billion degrees C.
    The “shot” with 10 torr of deuterium yielded first, a very sharp peak that was the X-ray pulse, caused by radiation from hot electrons in the plasmoid and arriving at the FTF detector at the speed of light, 30 cm per ns.  The second group of peaks was the neutrons, traveling much slower and arriving later. The team knows that the neutrons produced by deuterium/deuterium fusion reactions should have a velocity of 2.2 cm per ns and should arrive 719 ns after the X-rays.  They also know that the fusion reactions only occur once the electrons have heated up the ions.
    But in the January trial shot, the first burst of neutrons arrived only 682 ns after the beginning of the X-ray pulse.  These neutrons, traveling faster than would be expected from the fusion energy alone, must have additional energy imparted to them by the motion of the nuclei that collided to produce the reaction.  From this data the team is figuring that the average ion in the plasmoid had at least 45 keV of energy.  If the neutrons actually originated later in the pulse, then they traveled faster and the average ion energy could have been higher.  More energy out than anticipated – a very good sign.
    Late February saw the first preliminary evidence that the injection of angular momentum into the dense plasma fusion considerably increases the efficiency of energy transfer into the plasmoid, the size of the plasmoid and thus the fusion energy yield.  During some shots the angular momentum coil (AMC) was connected to the power supply, so current could flow through it. In other shots, the coil circuit was left open, so no current could flow. The shots with the AMC connected have a neutron yield 8-10 times that of those with the AMC disconnected, so this is a large and very promising effect.
    A factor of ten improvement in yield through the use of the AMC is very encouraging and is an initial confirmation of the proposal that LPP VP Aaron Blake made four years ago.  The team thinks that the current in the coil is producing a small magnetic field along the axis of the device. The interaction of the currents with this field induces angular momentum (spin) in the plasma sheath.
    This in turn diverts the current in the sheath in the same direction as the current in the coils, amplifying the field. The angular momentum, conveyed ultimately to the tiny plasmoid, creates a centrifugal force that balances the compressive magnetic forces. The bigger the centrifugal force, the bigger the magnetic field that can be balanced and in turn the bigger the formed plasmoid. However, if the centrifugal force is too big, it will prevent the plasmoid from forming at all. Thus only small fields are effective.
    By mid March the device was operating at 90% good shots.  In the best shots, ion energies were measured in the range of 40-60 keV (the equivalent of 0.4-0.6 billion degrees K). The electron beam carried about 0.5 kJ of energy and the plasmoid held about 1 kJ of energy, nearly half that stored in the magnetic field of the device. So, this is evidence that a substantial part of the total energy available is being concentrated in the plasmoids and transferred to the beams.
    The testing shows that the control shots (with the magnetic coil turned off) were increasingly producing more neutrons (up to about 10 times) as the control shots at the beginning of testing.  Also it seems the steel flanges that attach the vacuum chamber to the inner lower bus plate and the bus plate itself were both becoming permanently magnetized.  This provides unintended additional evidence that the predicted angular momentum effect is working.
    All this seems well, esoteric and sort of obtuse.  Not by intent, I’m certain, the news writer is deep into the science and hasn’t a clear idea where the usual observer is in the perspective of the news.  An extended stay on the Lawrenceville Plasma Physics site teaches that these news reports show the device and the experiments being done are giving results a bit better than predicted.
    Dr. Lerner and his team are getting along very well indeed.  If the funding keeps coming we might well see the pB11 fuel test later this year or next.  As the experiments proceed in testing the theory working so well, the prospects for a pB11 fuel success seem quite good.
    For accredited investors this might be the chance of a lifetime.  It’s a shame and an insult to everyone else to be cut out by a stupid law meant to protect the ill informed that regular folks can’t get a small part in this.  Yes, there is a mountain of sophisticated due diligence involved to be sure, the risk of loss very high – but imagine if Lerner can fuse proton-boron 11 and throw off massive electron energy . . .  Odds very seldom get this high in real life.
    APRIL 11, 2010
    Here’s a brief rundown of Lawrenceville Plasma Physics, Inc.’s experimental program, which consists of 8 goals to be accomplished in late 2009 and 2010:
    1. Assemble and test the machine, get a pinch. Done deal. The machine didn’t blow up when it was plugged in, and it demonstrated its ability to “pinch”- transfer the magnetic energy into a magnetic bottle where fusion will happen. The pinch was expected after 20 shots, but was achieved on the second shot.
    2. Produce 1 MA (million Amperes) at 25kV (thousand volts), and find the best fill gas pressure.
    3. Test the critical theory of axial magnetic field.
    4. Switch to Deuterium fill gas and reliably achieve 2MA at 45kV.
    5. Confirm the University of Texas (2nd scaling experiment- this is the 3rd, full scale experiment) results using better instruments.
    6. Heavier gasses such as Deuterium + Helium + Nitrogen, using shorter electrodes.
    7. Switch to pB-11 fuel and show that some fusion is taking place.
    8. Increase pB-11 burn to achieve net energy.
    The first 5 goals were scheduled for the last quarter of 2009.
    The major challenges with meeting this timeline present opportunities for entrepreneurs in the extremely high voltage and current power storage and switching areas. The capacitors and spark gap switches are built in a job shop manner due to the low demand and high prices for these parts. The lack of a market at present has allowed these suppliers to get away with intolerable quality and service levels, as you can read on the Focus Fusion Society forums.
    It took 5 months to get the machine to fire all 12 capacitors’ switches within the required timeframe of a few billionths of a second (the pulse only lasts around 1 millionth of a second) to concentrate the power on the electrodes, where the fusion cycle actually begins.
    As of this writing in early April, 2010, LPP is performing the Step 6 experiments, which will hopefully confirm that the shorter electrodes and heavier fill gasses significantly increase the magnetic field and thus confirm their predictions that the increased field limits the plasma cooling due to X-rays cooling the plasmoid (magnetic bottle) more than the fusion reactions can heat it.
    Classic physics doesn’t teach the high field effect, although McNally did some preliminary, small scale experiments on it in 1975. This is why most physicists are highly skeptical that pB-11 fusion is even possible.
    Steps 7 and 8 still have over 8 months left to accomplish.
     Since many physics departments can build a FoFu-1 clone for around $50k to $100k using mothballed parts, and a DPF fusion lab could galvanize an entire student body to figure out what has to be done in what order to use this to power their campus before any other school grabs the glory, I believe that a step of faith is in order, M. Simon. That we need to build a network of these machines that anticipates LPP’s success- lead the target, if you will- rather than playing catch-up ball once LPP announces that they believe they’ve accomplished energy breakeven and are looking for scientific confirmation.

  • Japanese Whalers Cry





    I must admit that I am unsympathetic to any form of whaling whatsoever.  Our destruction of the fishery in the nineteenth century was almost total and a century is little enough time to rebuild what is a wild stock with terribly slow reproduction rates.
    In the meantime we have global fishery that simply does not have any real ownership responsibility to any fishery yet is allowed to go in and simply take.  If any fishery were to pay a tax equal to the costs incurred to replenish the stocks, it would suddenly get smart.
    Certainly, Greenpeace is tackling the top end of the food chain in its efforts to impose some sort of sense.  Just as certainly, they buy into some form of environmental paradise that never existed.  Yet they are the only folks lifting a finger.
    I know that I could never get along with their ideas because they are often just as wrong headed as their targets. Yet the need for activism exists and that has my support.
    Abandoning the phony whale research might just allow Japan to join common cause with other nations to establish global husbandry and ownership protocols.  As Japan is the largest consumer, that would allow them to restore the wild catch to full health through global management.
    Japan whalers blame lower catch on Sea Shepherd harassment
    by Staff Writers
    Tokyo (AFP) April 12, 2010

    The last ship of Japan‘s Antarctic whaling fleet sailed home Monday with the lowest catch in years, a shortfall whalers blamed on high-seas clashes with the militant environmental group Sea Shepherd.

    The mother ship the Nisshin Maru sailed into Tokyo harbour, the last of the five harpoon ships to come home after they set sail in November, its hull splattered with blood-red paint thrown by the protesters.

    The fleet’s catch of 507 whales was down sharply on last year’s cull of 680 and below the target of about 850, said Japan‘s Fisheries Agency, which blamed a total of 31 days of harassment by the Sea Shepherd group.

    It was the smallest catch on record except for the 2006-07 expedition when the fleet caught only 505 whales after a fire aboard a ship hampered whaling operations.

    This season’s confrontations in icy Antarctic waters saw the sinking of a Sea Shepherd vessel and the arrest of one of its activists, a New Zealander who faces trial in Japan for assault, trespass and three other charges.

    Whalers and their opponents also blasted each other with water cannons, while activists hurled rancid butter stink bombs, and the whalers targeted the environmentalists with a sonic crowd control device.
    “I am furious,” said the whaling fleet’s leader Shigetoshi Nishiwaki.

    He charged that the activists “say they want to protect the ocean, but they don’t care about leaking oil or leaving pieces of a broken ship behind”, a reference to the group’s sunken powerboat the Ady Gil.
    Commercial whaling has been banned worldwide since 1986 but Japan justifies its annual hunts as lethal “scientific research”, while not hiding the fact that the meat is later sold in shops and restaurants.
    Tensions have risen between whaling nations, also including Iceland and Norway, and anti-whaling nations such as Australia, which has threatened to take Japan to the International Court of Justice over the issue.

    The International Whaling Commission, which meets in June in Morocco, is considering a plan to allow whaling nations to hunt the ocean giants openly if they agree to reduce their catch “significantly” over 10 years.

    However, so far Japan, Australia and other key nations have rejected the plan, while New Zealand has voiced support for the compromise.

    In Japan, meanwhile, two cases involving anti-whaling activists are now moving though the criminal justice system.

    Sea Shepherd’s Peter Bethune was indicted on April 2 for trespass, injuring a person, carrying a weapon, vandalism and obstructing commercial activities — charges that could see him jailed for up to 15 years.

    Bethune, 45, was the captain of the Sea Shepherd’s Ady Gil, a futuristic powerboat that sank after it was sliced in two in a collision with the whaling fleet’s security ship Shonan Maru II in early January.

    On February 15, Bethune scaled the the Shonan Maru II from a jet ski before dawn with the stated intent of making a citizen’s arrest of its captain Hiroyuki Komiya for the attempted murder of his six crew.

    Bethune had also planned to present the captain with a bill for the Ady Gil, a carbon-and-Kevlar trimaran which broke the round-the-world record for a powerboat in 2008 under its former name Earthrace.

    Instead he was detained, taken to Japan and formally arrested.

    Prosecutors also allege he earlier caused a chemical burn on a whaler’s face by hurling a bottle of rancid butter, or butyric acid, which smashed on the Shonan Maru II.

    In another case involving anti-whaling activists, two Japanese members of Greenpeace face theft and trespass charges which stem from their investigation of alleged embezzlement in the state-subsidised industry.

    The “Tokyo Two”, as the environmental group calls its activists Junichi Sato and Toru Suzuki, face up to 10 years in prison if convicted in the trial, with a verdict expected some time in June.
    Illegal trade in whale meat points to Japan: DNA study

    Paris (AFP) April 14, 2010 – Whale meat sold secretly at a sushi restaurant in Los Angeles and another in Seoul can be linked to Japanese whaling, a trade that would breach global rules on protected species, scientists said Wednesday. Japan carries out whaling under what it says is a programme of scientific research, although it does not hide the fact that the meat is later sold in Japanese shops and restaurants. But trading this meat is not allowed with countries that have signed provisions protecting whales under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). The allegation is made in a genetic study published in Biology Letters, a peer-reviewed journal by the Royal Society, Britain‘s academy of sciences. Its authors include activists who went undercover last year to acquire whale meat at a restaurant in Los Angeles called The Hump and another, unnamed, restaurant in the South Korean capital. Caught in a massive media glare and investigation by the local authorities, The Hump has since closed down. Its owners face up to a year in prison and a 200,000-dollar fine, and its chef a fine of up to 100,000 dollars.

    The new study confirmed that strips of raw meat purchased at The Hump had identical DNA sequences to sei whale meat previously bought in Japan in 2007 and 2008. “Since the international moratorium on commercial (whale) hunting (in 1986), there has been no other known source of sei whales available commercially other than in Japan,” said lead author Scott Baker, a professor and associate director of the Marine Mammal Institute at Oregon State University. Thirteen whale products were also purchased on two occasions in June and September 2009 at the Seoul restaurant, said the paper. Four came from an Antarctic minke whale, four from a sei whale, three from a North Pacific minke, one from a fin whale and one was from a Risso’s dolphin. The DNA profile of the fin whale meat genetically matched meat that had been bought in Japanese markets in 2007. “Since the international moratorium, it has been assumed that there is no international trade in whale products,” Baker said in a press release. “But when products from the same whale are sold in Japan in 2007 and Korea in 2009, it suggests that international trade, though illegal, is still an issue. “Likewise, the Antarctic minke whale is not found in Korean waters, but it is hunted by Japan‘s controversial scientific whaling programme in the Antarctic. How did it show up in a restaurant in Seoul?”

    In addition to marine biologists, the study’s authors include Louie Psihoyos, director of the Oscar-nominated documentary movie “The Cove,” portraying the annual killing of dolphins in a Japanese bay. Baker said he had filed a request to the Japanese government for access to a DNA register of caught whales in order to help genetic tracking of illegally-traded whale meat. Under CITES, whales are listed on Appendix 1, which means they cannot be traded internationally for commercial purposes. Japan, Iceland and Norway maintain “reservations” on the trading of some whales under Annex 1. However, these exceptions do not allow trading with countries that do not hold CITES “reservations,” which include South Korea and the US. Japan‘s Fisheries Agency announced on Monday it had killed 507 whales in its latest annual hunt in Antarctica, compared with 680 last year and a target of 850. It blamed the fall on clashes at sea with a militant environmental group, Sea Shepherd.

  • Climate Modeling





    This from the Washington Post takes on the murky art of climate modeling and points out just how dismal the work has been.  This hardly surprises me.  What surprises me is the number of climate scientists who have utterly bought into these models and been effectively mesmerized.  Perhaps by focusing too long on the printouts they have lost all objectivity.
    Simple test questions are continuously dumping these models.  The truth is that they are worthless, however much effort has been put into them.
    Accept the reality that the models are at best a rough attempt that may work in somewhat ideal circumstances never to be seen in real life.  Making them better needs better methods.  Yet the data flood overwhelms such tinkering.
    The take home from all this is that the best simulation they have works best if no change in climate is assumed over the past few decades.  Anything else appears to be less likely.
    MONDAY, APRIL 5, 2010
    This year, critics have harped on that fact, attacking models of climate change that have been used to illustrate what will happen if the United States and other countries do nothing to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Climate scientists have responded that their models are imperfect, but still provide invaluable glimpses of change to come. 

    They have found themselves trying to persuade the public — now surrounded by computerized predictions of the future — to believe in these. 


    If policymakers don’t heed the models, “you’re throwing away {GIGO} information. And if you throw away {GIGO} information, then you know less {more} about the future than we actually do {don’t},” said 
    Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. 

    “You can say, ‘You know what, I don’t trust the climate models, so I’m going to walk into the middle of the road with a blindfold on,’ ” Schmidt said. “But you know what, that’s not smart.”
    Climate scientists admit that some {actually ALL} models overestimated how much the Earth would warm in the past decade. But they say this might just be natural variation in weather, not a disproof of their methods. {first rule of climate science: when the models are wrong call it “weather”, when right call it “climate”} Put in the conditions on Earth more than 20,000 years ago: they produce an Ice Age, NASA’s Schmidt said. Put in the conditions from 1991, when a volcanic eruption filled the earth’s atmosphere with a sun-shade of dust. The models produce cooling temperatures and shifts in wind patterns, Schmidt said, just like the real world did. 

    If the models are as flawed as critics say, Schmidt said, “You have to ask yourself, ‘How come they work?’ ”  emphasis and {comments} added

    Actually, the real question we should be asking is how come the models don’t work:

    1. The models DO NOT WORK when tested against observational satellite data as shown by 5 peer reviewed studies, with no peer reviewed satellite data studies to suggest that they do. ALL 22 IPCC and GISS models greatly overestimate warming due to increased CO2 during the satellite era. None of the models predicted the global cooling since 1998 shown at the header to The Hockey Schtick, and that’s why the models are “a travesty”. Even the IPCC admits they have not tested their models against observations and furthermore said tests have yet to be developedso the IPCC can’t say with any degree of confidence that their models work.


    2. James Hansen’s NASA/GISS flawed 1988 paper which was the genesis of the computer models and the basis for all the IPCC models is based upon the “adjusted” highly-massaged & corrupted thermometer record, which shows a 0.6 °C change in the 20th century. Hansen merely assumed that this rise was not an artifact of natural recovery from the Little Ice Age, which according to ice core data had the lowest temperature of the last 10,000 years, and arbitrarily decided to attribute ~97% of the 0.6 °C rise in temperature to CO2. And given the logarithmically declining greenhouse effect known from spectroscopy data, the only way Hansen could make his model match up with the temperature data was to create a huge imaginary positive feedback forcing fudge factor for CO2 in his simplistic climate model (which ignores ocean oscillations, clouds, water vapor behavior, etc.). His “sophisticated” computer model basically boils down to this equation:  °C = 5.3 ln(ending CO2/starting CO2), with 5.3 being the amazing magical mystery positive feedback number (IPCC uses ~4.7 for it’s magical number). That number, according to spectroscopy data and physical derivation should really be ~1.2. The flawed circular logic of climate models was noted on a prior post:
    The sole support for AGW is the climate models, and the sole support for the climate models with respect to CO2 is the forcing parameter. There is no actual physical rational for the forcing parameter, because it was simply contrived from the assumption that observed warming of 0.6°C was due entirely to a 100ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. There was never any verification of this parameter either by theory or observation. There is no justification for this parameter based on the physical properties of CO2, because the molecular configuration of the CO2 molecule (zero dipole moment) precludes any significant effect from CO2 beyond a concentration of 300ppmv…
    Despite all of this, “scientist” Hansen was 99% confident his model was correct all the way back in 1988 when he published his paper. 
    3. Based on satellite data, Dr. Roy Spencer has direct evidence that most of the warming since 1973 (which was the basis of Hansen’s model derivation above) may be spurious.

    4. Gavin must be referring to his wonderful GISS model results, based upon which he wrote a paper to debunk Dr. Lindzen’s satellite observational data paper (one of the 5 mentioned above), but which was unanimously rejected twice outright by all three reviewers for the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Association. Gavin still hasn’t gotten anyone to publish his paper about his wonderful model that works, but I’m sure he can post it at his blog realclimate.org.

    5. Gavin also claims the models work for the past, but that isn’t true either. Applying the IPCC models to the temperature 20,000 years ago when ice core data states CO2 was 180 ppm, model predicts ~1.6°C change to the preindustrial CO2 level of ~280 ppm; actual change ~10-11°C. The model predicts from preindustrial CO2 of 280 ppm to today’s 390 ppm a temperature change of ~1.6°C; actual ~0.8°C. The model predicts from Paleozoic time with CO2 levels ~10-20 times higher than today that the temperature anomaly should be ~14°C; actual is from minus ~2 to +10°C [that’s right- CO2 was ~18 times higher than today throughout an entire ice age during this period]. 


    6. Correlation of CO2 with temperature during the 20th century is actually rather poor with R^2 = .44. A very simple alternative climate model incorporating natural ocean oscillations and “sunspot integral” (not CO2) correlates with temperature R^2 = .96. 

     7. A “no change” climate “model” predicts temperature change 7 times better than the IPCC models. So Gavin, the question the skeptics really should be asking is “
    how come a no change climate model works 7 times better than yours?”
  • Five Myths About China’s Economy



    This item is welcome and a reminder that China also has a long ways to go.  It is also about good news.  This China is following the path of the Oriental tigers and has another generation to complete the economic maturation process. 

     

    The issues so apparent today yet abating in their own way will be well resolved in twenty years.  It will be a stable middle class country with a thriving economy and western style social services taken for granted.

     

    The political system will sort itself out and become progressively more inclusive.  Taiwan’s progress is a great example in which founding parties have been voted in and out of office, yet looked just like China today thirty years ago.

     

    Political and social progress is accepted by the population and is been patiently pressed.  Recall the Chinese leadership is proud of their millennia of progress and believe they understand patience.  The Chinese people themselves think the same way.  They also know that they are part of their country’s greatest generation.  They have set out to become fully modernized and this will mean a reshaped political system while assiduously avoiding revolutionary nastiness.

    They have also shown the rest of the world that it is possible and are themselves helping make changes were obvious in other countries.

     

    China should coast into the top of the S curve in about twenty years.  India will need an additional decade.  The rest of the undeveloped world has fully begun the process and is on the move and will fully emerge over the next twenty years.  I expect few stragglers

     

     Five myths about China‘s economy

    By Arthur Kroeber
    Sunday, April 11, 2010


    China‘s stunning economic rise is one of the biggest stories of this generation. In just three decades since beginning to embrace market economics, China has left its desperate poverty behind to become the world’s top exporting nation. The transformation has occurred so quickly that myths and misperceptions abound about the challenges and opportunities that China poses to America and the rest of the world.

    1. China will quickly overtake the United States as the world’s most powerful economy.

    According to a November poll by the Pew Research Center, 44 percent of Americans believe that China is already the world’s top economic power, while 27 percent put the United States in that position. That perception is completely at odds with the facts. This year, China‘s economy is expected to produce about $5 trillion in goods and services. That would put it ahead of Japan as the world’s second-biggest national economy, but it would still be barely one-third the size of the $14 trillion U.S. economy and well behind the European Union, if taken as a whole.

    One reason China‘s economy is so big is simply that it has 1.3 billion people. But China‘s per capita gross domestic product is only one-seventh the U.S. level. And in household living standards, China lags even further. Each year, an average Chinese household consumes one-fourteenth the value of goods and services purchased by an average American household.

    And despite its chronic losses in manufacturing jobs, the United States is still the world leader in that arena because its manufacturers excel at high-value products such as airplanes and high-tech equipment, while China still mainly produces low-cost clothing and consumer electronics. In terms of the value of goods, the United States produces more than 20 percent of global manufacturing, or about double China‘s share.

    2. China‘s vast holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds mean it can hold Washington hostage in economic negotiations.

    China has the biggest holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds of any country — around $1 trillion. Many people think this means China is “America‘s banker” and that, like a bank, it can withdraw its line of credit by selling off its Treasuries whenever Washington does something Chinese leaders don’t like.

    But China‘s Treasury holdings are not like regular loans that a bank extends to a company. They are more like deposits: safe, liquid and carrying a very low interest rate. Like a depositor, China has little ability to tell its bank how to run its business. It can only vote with its feet, by taking its deposits elsewhere — but its deposits are so huge, there is no other “bank” in the world that can take them. The European and Japanese bond markets are not big enough to absorb that much Chinese cash, nor can China buy enough oil fields, ore mines or real estate to soak up its money. And it can’t simply invest all its dollars at home, because doing so could lead to rampant inflation. So like it or not, Washington and Beijing are stuck with each other — and neither has the power to hold the other hostage.

    3. Letting its currency grow in value is the most important thing China can do to reduce its trade surplus.

    Some American companies, unions and politicians complain that by keeping a fixed exchange rate between the yuan and the dollar, China is unfairly making its goods cheaper on the world market, thus driving its trade surplus at the expense of its trading partners. Certainly, the exchange rate is important, but it’s a mistake to think that letting the yuan rise in value would magically make China‘s trade surplus disappear. In the late 1980s, Japan allowed the yen to double in value, but its trade surplus didn’t budge. Conversely, in 2009 China kept the value of the yuan fixed against the dollar, and its trade surplus fell by a third.

    Secretary Treasury Timothy Geithner was in Beijing on Thursday and discussed the currency issue with Chinese economic officials. Most observers — including China‘s top economic policymakers — agree that the yuan should rise in value. But for that move to offer any benefits, it must be accompanied by other policy shifts. By far the most important thing China can do to reduce its trade surplus is to stimulate domestic demand (including demand for imports), something it has started to do through a massive infrastructure spending program. There’s some evidence that Chinese households are also beginning to spend more freely as wages rise and people feel optimistic about the future.

    4. China‘s hunger for resources is sucking the world dry and making major contributions to global warming.

    It’s true that China is now the biggest producer of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. And it’s true that China uses more energy to produce a dollar of its GDP than most other countries, including the United States. But on a per-person basis, China‘s use of resources is still modest compared with that of rich countries. For instance, despite its rapid increase in car use, China consumes about 8 million barrels of oil a day. The United States consumes about 20 million barrels a day. Put another way, China, with nearly a quarter of the world’s population, accounts for less than one-tenth of the world’s oil consumption. The United States, with only 5 percent of world population, accounts for nearly a quarter of global oil consumption. Whose appetite is really the bigger problem?

    Moreover, unlike the United States, China has recognized that it cannot let its fossil-fuel appetite grow forever and is working hard to improve efficiency. Chinese fuel-economy standards for new cars are higher than America‘s, for instance, and on average, coal-fired power plants are more efficient in China than in the United States.

    5. China‘s economy has grown mainly through the cruel exploitation of cheap labor.

    Every time a developing economy starts growing fast, richer countries accuse it of “cheating” by keeping its wages and exchange rate artificially low. But this isn’t cheating; it’s a natural stage of development that comes to an end in every country, as it will in China. China has grown in much the same way as other economies we now view as mature and responsible success stories — including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Those nations invested heavily in infrastructure and education, and quickly moved their workers from low-productivity jobs in rural areas to more productive jobs in cities. When rural labor was abundant, wages were low, but they rose rapidly after those surplus workers joined the urban labor force.

    China is hitting that spot now: The number of young people of workforce entry age (15 to 24) is projected to fall by one-third over the next 12 years. With young workers more scarce, wages have nowhere to go but up. This is already happening: Last month, Guangdong province (China‘s main export hub) raised its minimum wage by 20 percent.

    China still has plenty of workers moving from the countryside to the cities, but the age of ultra-cheap Chinese labor will soon be gone.


    Arthur Kroeber is the managing director of GaveKal-Dragonomics, an economic research firm in Beijing.

    From the archives: For recent Outlook coverage of China, see Steven Mufson and John Pomfret’s “The New Red Scare” (Feb. 28) and Yasheng Huang’s “Why Google should stay in China” (March 28).
  • How To Train Your Dragon

    how_to_train_your_dragonCea mai buna animatie pe care am vazut-o in ultimul an.

    Actiunea se “invarte” in jurul lui Hiccup (personajul principal), fiul sefului de trib, dintr-un sat izolat de vikingi.
    Intr-un loc in care 9 luni este iarna iar principala ocupatie este pescuitul, natura razboinica a vikingilor se rasfrange asupra unui singur inamic : dragonii !

    Respectul in acest sat se castiga intr-un singur mod : prin uciderea unui dragon ! Singura problema este ca Hiccup nu are “conformatia/fizionomia” necesara … “atingerii” unui dragon. Visul lui este sa-l faca mandrul pe tatal sau, unul dintre cei mai cunoscuti ucigasi de dragoni.
    Baiat slabut,linistit,inteligent Hiccup lucreaza intr-o fierarie, un loc in care se gandeste la metode ingenioase de ucis dragoni. Cu ajutorul unei astfel de metode reuseste sa “doboare” unul dintre cei mai periculosi dragoni, numai ca , spre surprinderea lui visul lui de o viata, uciderea unui dragon, nu mai pare asa de important, odata pus fata in fata cu “problema”.

    Intr-un mod cel putin interesant, veti vedea cum, putin cate putin, prietenia dintre dragon si Hiccup prinde contur si veti invata ca intotdeauna cel mai bine este sa fii tu insuti.
    Comedie, suspans, actiune . Veti gasi cate ceva din fiecare in aceasta animatie.

    Trimite si prietenilor:





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  • Photographer Makes One-Third Of His Living Expenses Off Only 94 Fans

    Jim Hein writes a very well known Fine Art photographer is using the CwF+RtB model. He breaks things down into actual dollars and cents. He has figured out how many “True Fans” he needs to make a living.”

    Photographer Ctein’s “Contributor Program” gives his fans the opportunity to collect his prints and allow him to focus on creating. He shared the latest results:


    Make no mistake, I didn’t get anywhere close to 1000 True Fans (didn’t expect to), I got 94. But those Contributors provided me with approximately $15,500 gross revenues, $12,500 net. That’s about one third of what I need to live on, not a life-altering level of support but certainly a life-enhancing one that provides me with considerably more time to work on my art — the point of this.

    Even though the tiers start at only $9.50 a month, his average sale was around $165 — demonstrating that he has given his customers a real reason to buy. Additionally, Ctein recognizes that his subscribers are his most passionate fans, so he takes this as an opportunity to further solidify his connection to them:


    Last winter I offered them about a dozen extra dye transfer prints from the first TOP print sale at an extraordinarily low price, and super-cheap copies of my photo restoration book before the new edition came out. They also got advance notice of this year’s print sale.

    Offering exclusives is one of the ten scarcities that we’ve discussed before, so it’s great to see it in practice. The other lesson that Ctein learned from his experiment is that, yes, it does take work. He now has to devote about 3 days a month dealing with the administration of his subscriber program. That said, spending 3 days a month on something that provides 1/3 of your living expenses seems like a worthwhile investment. And this is only in the first few months of launching his program — if he’s able to improve the performance, he could do much better. So yes, it’s exciting to see photographers embracing the CwF+RtB concepts and making them work.

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  • First gameplay footage of Nier revealed

    Square Enix has unveiled the first gameplay footage for their upcoming multiplatform action-RPG that is being dubbed as the “next great story”, Nier.
     

  • Infographic Does A Great Job Misrepresenting Opportunities Of The Digital Era

    This infographic depicts the number of sales that must be made in order for a solo artist to make “minimum wage” in a month. The graphic is obviously meant to be a bit shocking, but even the slightest bit of digging turns it into more of a shoulder shrug. First of all, it is a bit misleading in that it compares not quite apples to oranges, but apples to apple slices to apple sauce to apple juice — all in one chart. It compares albums and singles and streams all on the same scale, which is a bit unfair. If you sell 1 album for $9.99 (that had 10 tracks on it), then of course you would expect to have to sell (roughly) 10 times as many tracks for $0.99 to make the same amount of money — that’s not really much of a revelation. By looking at the data, we can compare apples to apples and get a better sense of what is going on:

    format average retail price musician revenue sales to earn min. wage
    Self-Pressed CD $9.99 $8.09 143
    iTunes Album Download $9.99 0.94 1,229
    cdbaby Album download $9.99 7.49 155
    Retail Label-backed CD $9.99 $0.30 3,871

    Clearly, it’s difficult to make a living simply by selling albums, but it’s always been that way. Musicians have long known that in order to make real money, they’d either have to be U2 big, or tour. However, it’s very interesting to note that in the new, digital era, artists actually make more off of their album sales in iTunes than they did in the old, physical world. And selling albums digitally through cdbaby, without a label, stands to bring in much, much more money for the artist — and frees them from the headache of distributing a physical product. The band Pomplamoose, for example, is making a perfectly good living doing just that.

    Moving on, the data claims that to make minimum wage, an artist would need 4.6M plays on a streaming service like Spotify. While that might be technically true, it’s a pretty meaningless calculation. It does not take into account the promotional value of streaming — and unlike selling 143 CDs, getting 4.6M plays of a digital track would certainly lead to significant revenue elsewhere. Surely an artist would be able to translate that much attention into successful live shows or their own CwF+RtB offering. After all, we’ve seen time and time again that focusing on something as narrow as money earned per track sold (or streamed play) is a limited way to view a musician’s earning potential.

    So, while at first glance, this infographic may seem pessimistic, digging a little deeper into the data gives the real story. Exciting opportunities still abound in the world of music for those creative enough to seize them.

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  • Emanations from Royal Society less than lordly by Richard Treadgold

    Article Tags: Richard Treadgold

    It seems that New Zealand is living in “interesting times,” in the Chinese sense. I wish I knew more about the details, like Vincent Gray provided on Greenie Watch. See also the rebuttal to Treadgold: http://hot-topic.co.nz/hook-line-and-stinker/ – AS

    There’s little of royalty attached to recent climate change missives emanating from the Royal Society. Did I call them missives? I meant to say emissions.

    Professor Keith A. Hunter, FNZIC, FRSNZ, Vice-President, Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Engineering and Technology, Royal Society of New Zealand, issued a statement on 7 April entitled Science, Climate Change and Integrity.

    He means to support the hypothesis that human activity is dangerously warming the world’s climate. He uses whole sentences and impeccable syntax, but the evidence he cites is wrong.

    The package is lovely but the contents rotten.

    There are now several of our prominent public scientists who are unaware it is not sufficient merely to tog themselves out in the royal or other esteemed branding — they must actually live up to it and, before all else, speak the truth.

    The senior scientists who’ve made misleading public statements about global warming include Peter Gluckman, David Wratt, James Renwick, Brett Mullan, Andrew Reisinger and Jim Salinger.

    Their cheeks are smooth and their mouths are smiling but their breath stinks.

    Source: climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz

    Read in full with comments »   


  • Statement: The Royal Society of New Zealand: Science, Climate Change and Integrity

    Article Tags: Statement, The Royal Society of New Zealand

    Statement from Professor Keith A Hunter FNZIC, FRSNZ, Vice-President – Physical Sciences, Mathematics, Engineering and Technology, Royal Society of New Zealand

    SUMMARY OF STATEMENT

    The science of climate change has been the subject of recent harsh criticisms in the popular media, with attacks on the integrity and professionalism of scientists. There is fault on both sides of the equation, with the need for absolute transparency of information being the key issue. Adopting a more transparent approach to the dissemination of information will lead to a clearer picture of the facts.

    Science has not “proved” beyond all reasonable doubt that human activities are changing the climate. But it has clearly shown that there are multiple lines of evidence all pointing in the same direction, and this view is supported by theories that are well-founded in fundamental sciences like physics.

    Commonsense and prudence says we should respond and not ignore the evidence about climate change as it currently stands. The risks of doing nothing are too great.

    The mitigation measures suggested for climate change (reduced use of carbon-based fuels, more renewable energy sources, carbon capture and storage, less use of nitrogen-based fertilizers) are all part of a portfolio of approaches that are needed to produce a more sustainable world.

    Source: royalsociety.org.nz

    Read in full with comments »   


  • How Third Party Liability Can Stifle An Industry

    The entertainment industry has been pushing really hard for greater secondary liability for third parties, lately — hoping to roll back some of the vastly important safe harbors found in both the DMCA and Section 230 of the CDA. Both of those safe harbors (though, they work in different ways) are designed to make sure that liability is properly applied towards the party that actually broke the law. Secondary liability is a dangerous concept that applies the liability to a third party because it’s difficult to find the actual perpetrator. But, in what world does it make sense for you to blame an innocent bystander just because it’s hard to find the actual person responsible?

    The consequences of secondary liability (both intended and unintended) are incredibly dangerous for both free speech and for the ability to create new and useful services online. We’ve already seen how the Chinese have taken secondary liability to a new level by using it as the core mechanism for censorship. But still the entertainment industry pushes forward.

    They should be careful what they wish for. An article in the Times Online highlights the situation in Ireland, where there aren’t safe harbors against secondary liability for defamation — and it’s leading internet companies to blatantly censor or to avoid doing business in Ireland out of fear for the liability. Now, some in the entertainment industry seem to think this is just fine — because they think that the internet should be a broadcast medium for the big “professional” producers of content, and all these internet companies and user-generated content things should really all fade away.

    But for people who recognize that freedom of communication online is important, and who recognize that third parties who create services should not be blamed for their misuse by users, this should be quite troubling. Trying to increase secondary liability on service providers through things like ACTA is an attempt to strip away basic legal common sense in the proper application of liability, in an effort to crowd out new online services, in favor of old school broadcast entertainment firms.

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