Author: Serkadis

Google’s five-year venture into the Chinese search market may be coming to an end in just a couple of weeks if the latest reports turn out to be accurate. The company is now expected to shut down its local search engine, Google.cn, on April 10 with an official announcement expected on Monday, March 22. Google has announced its decision to stop censoring… (read more)

The new healthcare bill will levy a tax on big pharma, but they’ll be fine because of all the new customers coming on line.

But that ain’t nothing compared to this…

From a note put out today by UBS:

Pharma- with the Chinese gov’t in the midst of vastly expanding h/c access for the entire population, the Chinese pharma mkt is growing 25-30% per annum. We expect the Chinese pharma mkt to grow from $30.4b in 09 to $102.8b in 2015. China will add more to world pharma than US, Western Europe, and Japan combined. Best Positioned- AZN, Novo Nordisk, PFE and Sanofi. Sent Note

Join the conversation about this story »

Download, save, print, share our photo collection from the 2010 IEA Representative Assembly in Rosemont, IL.

The US equity market is falling hard this morning. The Dow is currently down 57 points to 10,722. The NASDAQ is down nearly 1% to 2369 and the S&P 500 is down 8 points to 1157. Not a good start for the Bulls.

Energy stocks are taking the largest beating in the S&P 500:

• Cabot Oil & Gas Corp (COG): $37.44 / -5.26%
• Southwestern Energy Co (SWN): $38.70 / -5.10%
• Nabors Industries Ltd (NBR): $19.65 / -4.75%
• Tesoro Corp (TSO): $13.49 / -4.66%

And financials? They’re not doing well either:

• SLM Corp (SLM): $11.60 / -5.45%
• Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN): $5.30 / -3.64%
• Zions Bancorp (ZION): $22.08 / -2.86%
• Marshall & Ilsley Corp (MI): $7.69 / -2.78%

 

Same goes for technology stocks:

• Palm Inc (PALM): $4.60 / -18.58%
• Teradyne Inc (TER): $10.41 / -3.65%
• Motorola Inc (MOT): $7.13 / -3.06%
• SanDisk Corp (SNDK): $32.06 / -3.00%

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Grantham: Obama Is Not A Miracle Worker, The Volcker Rule Rules, And The S&P Is Worth 850
• David Rosenberg: Look Around, Nobody Has Any Pricing Power
• Bullish Sentiment Plummets To Levels Not Seen Since March ’09

Investors in Greek sovereign debt, sellers of credit protection on Greek debt or those with long positions financial institutions with large exposure to Greek sovereign debt should be very worried about the anti-speculation noise coming out of Europe.

The threats against “speculators” in credit default swaps are eerily reminiscent of the smears against short sellers that came from the heads of Wall Street firms in 2008. Those smears were evidence that the investment banks were refusing to take seriously the bear cases against them. Much the same seems to be going on with sovereign debt in Europe.

Let’s call this the “Warren Buffett Thesis.” When Buffett was approached about a possible investment in Lehman Brothers, one of the things that turned him off to the idea was that Dick Fuld was complaining about short sellers. Buffett reportedly decided that blaming short sellers was indicative of a failure to admit one’s own problems.

That’s what happening in Europe today. The leaders of Greece, France, Luxembourg, France, and Spain have all demanded investigations into whether speculators are causing bond yield spread to widen by bidding up the price of credit default swaps.

The theory has some basic plausibility.

• When the price of credit protection on a bond increases, bond buyers demand more yield. It’s a rather simple equation. If you have to pay more to hedge against a default, you balance this out by paying less for the bonds.
• On a more complex level, the risk management systems inside financial institutions demand this trade off. They take increasing CDS spreads as an indicator of additional risk, and demand more yield—lower prices on existing bonds and higher interest rates on new issues—to compensate for the additional risk.
• This could, theoretically, be open to manipulation. A cabal of CDS buyers could aggressively bid up the price of credit protection, pushing down the prices of the bonds that they later hoped to buy up for sale at a later time, after the prices had recovered from the artificial panic. Alternatively, they could try to start a run into credit protection, buying up protection when it is cheap and selling those contracts as demand rises.

That is, we think, what the European leaders are talking about when they discuss the role of speculators in the market.

The problem with the speculator thesis is that there’s no evidence for it at all. Germany’s financial regulator looked into the idea, and found that there is not massive speculation in Greek credit default swaps. The net volume of the swaps has not risen since January. In total, there are just $9 billion of known CDS on Greece’s $400 billion of government bonds. That’s up just $1.6 billion from a year ago, when the CDS total stood at $7.4 billion.

The willingness of government officials to adopt the speculator thesis in the face of contrary evidence signals an unwillingness to confront the problems that have created the funding crisis. Investors are right to worry—this is just another version of the willingness of government officials to mask their debt levels with accounting voodoo and then place the target the banks that sold them the swaps.

Let’s put this quite frankly. Greece’s so-called austerity program requires absolutely devastating spending cuts that masses of the Greek population seem unwilling to bear. Putting the cuts in place in the midst of a recession is at least arguably suicidal, both economically and politically. Investors are right to fear that Greece might not be able to carry out its program.

What’s more, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has been making statements that reveal a frightening sense of entitlement to the wealth of outsiders. He has said that the markets must be tamed by democracy, which we take to mean that he thinks Greek politicians have some metaphysical right to borrow the world’s wealth at low interest rates. In particular, he seems to share the view of many Greeks that the wealthier European countries—and Germany in particular—just owe Greek money. Which is a very strange attitude for a the country with the world’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio.

The problem with this view is that it cannot self-actuate. The Greeks lack a mechanism to force capital markets to fund them at low rates of interest. All they have is a threat of creating instability if the world does not supply them with cheap credit.

That’s what the leaders of Lehman Brothers had on their side as well. It did not end well. We won’t be surprised if Panandreou winds up at the next Dick Fuld and Greece the world’s first sovereign Lehman Brothers.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Greece Approaches The Final Showdown
• Germany Still Sending Out Confusing Messages On Greece
• The Greece Bailout Is Falling Apart

Web apps are becoming more powerful and more complex, but they’re still far behind what native applications, running on desktops or other devices, can provide. Google is a big believer in the cloud, perhaps because the vast majority of its services and apps are online, and is doing everything it can to convince anyone else that this is t… (read more)

Filed under: Volkswagen, Rumormill, Design/Style

3rd verse, same as the first. Not entirely, of course, but when the subject is the Volkswagen New Beetle, the looks of the car are largely a foregone conclusion. Just like the current New Beetle evokes the original Type 1 with its roundy-round fat-fenderedness, the next version, expected to go on sale in May 2011, will continue paying homage to the classic form. The outward differences will be a less-arched roofline that’s more like the Ragster concept, and reportedly more surface detailing to break up the current car’s vast expanses of featureless sheetmetal.

The new roofline and a stretch in wheelbase, plus a bump in width, will allow more logical interior packaging. Underneath all the retro, the next Beetle will again be running hardware shared with the Jetta. The UK’s Autocar reports that its sources indicate the Beetle’s dynamics will improve, with the ride becoming more supple. The familiar strut front suspension and beam rear axle layout will return, though a multi-link rear suspension will go into top-zoot models for sportier reflexes. Powertrain combinations in North America will likely be only two or three choices, possibly a 2.0T at the top, a TDI for the economy conscious, and the Jetta’s 2.5-liter inline five-cylinder standard otherwise. A hybrid powertrain may also be in the works.

While the concept of a “new” Beetle conjures visions of more of the same, Autocar’s rendering looks fresh, and even within the constraints of a 70-year-old design brief, there’s room for new expression.

[Source: Autocar | Rendering: Autocar]

Report: Next generation Volkswagen Beetle coming next year originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Sony has announced that The Taxidermist, the first chapter of the Heavy Rain Chronicles, will become available to the general populace next month.

We’ve already written up an analysis of the motions for summary judgment in the Viacom/Google YouTube lawsuit, suggesting that Google’s arguments seem stronger. It still seems unlikely that either motion will persuade the judge to skip a trial altogether, but the motions are certainly a bit of a preview of what to expect at any trial. Most of the analysis out there sort of reiterates the talking points in the two motions, but Eric Goldman highlighted an important point that got me thinking in that time is working against Viacom here, as YouTube becomes more and more entrenched as a useful platform by the day:

Perhaps more importantly, the intervening time has been good to YouTube as a business and as a brand. In this sense, compare Grokster to YouTube. At the time of the Grokster cases, it was still very much an open question whether Grokster would ever evolve into a tool where legitimate activity dominated. While we might still have had that same question about YouTube in 2006, by 2010 YouTube has answered that question resoundingly. YouTube’s business practices have matured, everyone has had positive legitimate experiences with YouTube (even behind-the-curve judges), and it’s clear that major legitimate players have adopted YouTube as a platform for their legitimate activities. For example, YouTube’s brief makes the point that all of the 2008 presidential candidates published YouTube videos as part of their campaign. I’m guessing no 2004 presidential candidates used Grokster for campaign purposes.

So as time goes on, YouTube solidifies a brand as a legitimate part of our information infrastructure. As we learn that the YouTube story has a happy ending, I suspect judges become less interested in punishing YouTube for past practices. For this reason (and others), I thought a lot of Viacom’s inducement arguments ran hollow because they ran counter to my brand impressions of YouTube. I would also note that Viacom appears to be giving up its litigation over activity after May 2008, so even Viacom seems to be happy with YouTube in its current form.

Goldman goes on to point out that this may bring up some challenges heretofore unfaced in determining how the “inducement” standard works — but, to me, it brings up an even more important issue: similar lawsuits against Napster and Grokster moved faster. Lots of people have commented on the fact that this particular lawsuit has taken three years from filing just to get to the summary judgment motions to be filed — and during that time, Goldman is correct, YouTube has had a chance to mature, refine its business model, and do many things that we now find to be quite beneficial to society.

The same thing likely would have happened to both Napster and Grokster, if they had been given a chance to live. Executives behind each company repeatedly laid out strategies to mature their business models and to work as partners with the industry. It’s just that they never got a chance to put those into practice because these sorts of lawsuits and rulings from judges forced them (effectively) out of business. In YouTube’s case, the slow pace of this particular lawsuit has allowed it to firmly establish tons of viable, useful, valuable non-infringing uses — to the point that it’s a platform used by tons of companies, politicians, individuals and more. If Napster and Grokster had been given half a chance, they likely would have been able to evolve similarly.

And this is what is so painful about watching all these attempts by the entertainment industry to kill off any new technology that disrupts an old business model. These lawsuits kill off those technologies before the natural progression and maturation is allowed — and because of that, we all suffer.

Now, some will scoff and claims that Grokster was never going to turn into what YouTube is today, but you’re saying that with the gift of hindsight. A large part of Viacom’s motion tries to suggest that the two companies actually were quite similar — but even Viacom is now admitting that YouTube’s business model was able to mature and adapt. Considering that we still don’t have music discovery, promotion and distribution tools as convenient as Napster was back in the day, this can be seen as a real shame. These lawsuits killed off a useful path of exploration for legitimate business models, and that’s not only shameful but a waste of innovative effort. It’s only through the random quirk of a slow court that YouTube may avoid suffering the same fate.

Permalink | Comments | Email This Story

The latest CPI and PPI readings have basically come in flat, if not a little deflationary.

Thus you may be hunting for companies showing some kind of pricing power, so they can stand out in this economy.

Thankfully, David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff has put out an excellent set of charts showing which industries have pricing power, and which are succumbing to deflation.

Check them out here >

Join the conversation about this story »

I get tired of the Chicken Little’s of the world or the advocates of other alternative fuel vehicles comparing hydrogen cars to the Hindenburg. The Hindenburg fallacy I’ve addressed on the website, blog and in numerous emails ad nauseam.

Numerous manufacturers including GM and Honda have put their cars through extensive crash tests to make sure no explosions will occur. This has once again been validated by GM in real world situations.

Since members of Project Driveway have been behind the wheel of Chevy Equinox Fuel Cell SUVs there have been five car crashes to date. The hydrogen fuel cell Equinox pictured is a total loss yet no one was hurt.

According to GM spokesman Alan Adler, “The vehicle was being driven in traffic at low speed when it was struck from behind by a full-size pickup which forced the fuel-cell vehicle forward into another pickup. No hydrogen was released and no one was injured.

“The vehicle was extensively damaged on both front and rear ends and later declared a total loss. A vehicle data analysis indicates that the vehicle and controls operated as designed. The vehicle was on a short-term loan to a military consultant.”

Unlike gasoline which will pool around the base of the vehicle as it burns, hydrogen fuel will rise quickly and burn upwards. Leave the dramatic explosions for the movies and for vehicles using gasoline. The cars, trucks, SUV, buses, trains, planes, boats, ships, submarines and other vehicles using hydrogen fuel will be far less dramatic during accidents.

People tend to fear what they don’t understand. Even though hydrogen needs to be handled with care, it’s not as dramatic to deal with as are other types of fuels. In fact, it can be quite underwhelming.

Article Tags: Doug L. Hoffman, Headline Story, John A. Shanahan, Reply To Letter

On the first of February, 2010, Dr. John A. Shanahan sent a letter regarding the future of American energy policy to Dr. John P. Holdren, Director of the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy and President Obama’s Science Advisor. Attached to the letter were more than thirty pages of signatories—309 scientists, engineers and citizens from 22 countries and 36 US states. The purpose of the letter was to ask for a clarification of the Obama administration’s stand on nuclear energy policy. Dr. Shanahan’s conclusion: if anyone thinks that the current administration’s nuclear policy solves America’s energy problems, they have no idea what they are talking about.

The entire world in engaged in efforts to build a secure and ecologically sound energy future, yet the US government continues to dither over energy policy. With the exception of grandstanding sound bite events, like the announcement by President Obama that the Federal Government would offer secure loans to build the first new American nuclear power plant in the nearly four decades, nothing has been done to secure the future or craft a coherent US energy policy.

John Shanahan, a Denver-based civil engineer who has worked on numerous nuclear power plant projects, wrote a letter to President Obama’s Science Advisor John Holdren about the administration’s support for nuclear energy. Shanahan met Holdren in California, forty years ago, and they had kept in touch since then. Frustrated with America’s lack of progress on the energy front, John contacted a number of his nuclear friends, and they drew up a letter to the President’s Science Advisor. This is how the letter starts:

Source: theresilientearth.com

Read in full with comments »   

Esse vídeo eu assisti recentemente na internet e achei tão interessante e curioso que gostaria de compartilhar com os leitores do blog, e acredito que irão gostar tanto quanto eu. Vou citar uma cena e quero que vocês imaginem antes de ver o vídeo:

Pense em um veículo grande e pesado, mas grande mesmo. Ok, agora imagine uma barreira de concreto, daquelas que são usadas para bloquear entradas de bases militares. Um muro que aparenta ser frágil. Essas barreiras de concreto que são usadas para proteger construções podem ser mais resistentes do que parecem.

No vídeo existe a demonstração de um caminhão de 32,5 toneladas a uma velocidade de aprox. 100 Km/h. Acham que esse monstro sobre rodas consegue derrubar uma barreira de concreto imóvel? Confira e comprove!

As WordPress extends its functionality more and more into the realm of CMS, some of the former community favorites as Joomla and Drupal are losing users to WordPress, in many ways due to its free WordPress hosting platform, WordPress.com. In a move meant to keep Drupal users and developers interested in their open source CMS, Acquia, Drupal’… (read more)

Filed under: Motorsports, MISC, Racing

When a world-championship racing team unveils a new supercar, some inevitable questions are bound to follow. In the case of the McLaren MP4-12C, people want to know if the company plans on racing it. Seems like logical enough a question, especially considering that McLaren’s racing experience extends beyond Formula One, most notably the 1995 24 Hours of Le Mans where a McLaren F1 GTR pipped the prototypes to claim overall victory.

According to McLaren chief Ron Dennis, the company is not planning their own racing campaign for the MP4. But having learned from the F1 project, which was never designed as a race car but was later adapted to the purpose following demand from racing teams, Dennis suggested that the company could offer and support competition spec versions of the car for privateer entries.

While it remains a question mark as to which series the car might be best suited, neither the FIA GT1 World Championship nor Le Mans (and its associated series around the world) would seem out of the realm of possibility. Maybe those renderings of long-tail MP4-12Cs weren’t so far-fetched after all.

[Source: Autosport]

McLaren could develop racing version of MP4-12C for privateers originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 19 Mar 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Article Tags: ClimateGate, Godfrey Bloom, UK Independence party (UKIP), UK Winter Forecast 2009/10, World Temperatures, YouTube

This YouTube from January 2010 has some good points made against the stupidity of “Man Made Climate Change” by UKIP MEP Godfrey Bloom. ClimateRealists.com hope the party has a role to play in the UK election and what Godfrey and UKIP have to say about “Man Made Climate Change” is taken up by the electorate.

UK Independence Party Godfrey Bloom MEP discusses so called global warming after record cold temperatures are recorded around the world, and the data books have been cooked.

Source: youtube.com

Read in full with comments »   

Google’s stated goal is to make information universally available. Of course, bringing in a few tens of billions in revenue per year in the meantime can’t hurt either. The company is always looking for new ways to monetize its properties and now it is previewing a new revenue source for Google Maps in Australia. The mapping service now serves cu… (read more)

Filed under: Performance, Hatchback, Alfa Romeo, Rumormill

Coach Sergio Marchionne has asked his temperamental star player, Alfa Romeo, to raise its game. Working to help that happen, the coach hasn’t stopped tinkering with the gameplan, trying to get Alfa out of another quasi-bust sales cycle. It’s been said the Giulietta has will “reinstate the marque’s reputation for fine handling and performance,” and if it does, a properly handling sports car accessible by the masses ought to help restore Alfa’s reputation and coffers.

The Giulietta given the task is one implanted with a the 1.75-liter, turbocharged TBi engine with Multiair. However, that engine currently makes 200 horsepower in the Alfa 159, but for the Giulietta application, Autocar is reporting that it will be additionally boosted to 235 horsepower. Getting that power down in a front-wheel-drive car is likely to be a trick, so plans reportedly call for the Alfao to be aided by a new electronic differential and active dampers, as well as a dual-clutch transmission.

Will all of this make a car that can truly challenge the Volkswagen Golf/GTI – or the Ford Focus family? Fiat claims the current hatch already bests those other two, not that that matters – Alfa has to actually make this spicier variant and let the customers decide which one has the chops. We will gladly admit that right now, though, it at least looks good on paper.

Photos by Noah Joseph / Copyright (C)2010 Weblogs, Inc.

[Source: Autocar]

Report: Hotter Alfa Romeo Giulietta to get dual-clutch gearbox and 235 hp originally appeared on Autoblog on Fri, 19 Mar 2010 09:26:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

 

Yesterday I overheard a snippet of a conversation between a father and his son, with the father trying to prove a point. “Son, how old are you?” His son replied, “Eight”. The father said, “When I was your age, I was nine.”

Who were, and probably still are, the largest mortgage lenders/investors in 2009? There were no real surprises – click here.

Yesterday I mentioned underwriter compensation and production, and perhaps was somewhat misunderstood. First, let me go on record that I have nothing against underwriters, and in fact believe that as a group they are often under-appreciated, under-paid, over-pressured, and usually taken for granted. I received a few comments that I will certainly pass along.

“I have been underwriting FHA loans for over 15 years and have always been able to pound out 5-7 loans a day. But in the current environment this is just not physically possible. With the investors becoming so anal about the smallest details and everyone thinking the IRS owes them something, and wanting a piece of the Home Buyer pie it’s made an underwriter’s life a living nightmare.  I am working twice as hard as I ever have but producing less because those things that you could have let go a year or two ago you no longer can ignore or some investor will use it as a weapon to make you repurchase the loan – even if you have made a sound underwriting decision.  I question everything I do – I need to look up guidelines on every loan since no two investors have the same FHA/VA guidelines anymore. So I wouldn’t expect that my employer would pay me less as I am working harder than ever to protect them and make sure that every loan I do is insurable and will be purchased by the investor.”

“When I managed underwriters in 2003 – 2007 they were making as much as 30% more than they are making today.  Some of that is a difference in salary and some is a difference in bonus.  Underwriting managers are working today for 30-50% less than they did in 2007 and 2008, including possibly being out of a job at some point in the last few years. The company’s today are not absorbing this at all – they are passing it on to the employee.  And like the banks, most senior managers are still getting some form of a bonus, albeit less than what they were accustomed to in past years.  In today’s environment, a DE /SAR underwriter is making at least 30% less than they did just 3 years ago, and in the past made 10-15% more than a conventional underwriter but are back to compensation levels from the last decade.”

“Loan officers make less because they close fewer loans due to fewer purchases, the disappearance of stated income, and lower values on would-be refis.  Underwriters can get fewer loans done per day because the investors are significantly more demanding. Loan officers have not caught up to what is needed, so from an underwriter’s perspective the issue may be that loan officers are not up to date.  Having corporate send a message saying ‘make sure loan files are complete’ is insufficient. On top of that we do have what from my perspective are ‘unreasonable conditions’ which may be, for example, the documentation of all significant deposits into an account even if it started and ended with $5,000 and this is a refi and the borrower needs to bring $500 to escrow. The GEFE 2010 is slowing down docs dramatically.  This is all about compliance, and is a disaster. Everyone is charging higher processing fees and a longer rate lock period is needed providing a higher cost to the borrowers.  Everyone will pay an extra $200 for a $4,000 mistake that happens 5% of the time.”

‘Nuff said for now.

PMI gave its clients some good news by reducing the minimum FICO score from 720 to 700 for CA, AZ, NV, DE, HA, NJ, and FL and other “sand” states. PMI is also offering 90% LTV on high balance loan amounts (with 740 score), so PMI believes that conditions have improved in certain areas of the country to the degree that it can now adopt a simpler Distressed Markets Policy with a single set of criteria and remove 19 MSA/MSADs from the PMI Distressed Markets List. So, for PMI, properties subject to its Distressed Markets Policy will now be subject to one set of eligibility criteria.

There is also a rumor (I don’t have anything in print) that Radian is rolling out a new 1.25% upfront MI program – up to 95% LTV’s for borrowers with a FICO score above 720 – April.

Fannie Mae answered questions regarding its new “Alternative Modification” to the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). As a refresher, it is for borrowers who were accepted into a HAMP trial period plan before 3/1 but were subsequently denied a permanent modification because of eligibility restrictions. Check out the information, scripts, policies and servicer procedures here.

Franklin American adjusted their price bumps for higher FICO government loans (leaving lower FICO hits unchanged). After Monday, borrowers with FICO scores above 700 will receive .125 less in price improvement.

Let’s talk about the government buying mortgages. Last week the Fed purchased $10 billion net in agency MBS’s, hitting the $1.236 trillion mark. Fannie Mae released more details of the delinquent loans it will be purchasing out of pools. Almost all 6.5% and higher coupon delinquent loans will be bought out in March. Almost all 6.0% coupon buyouts will happen in April, leaving 5.0% & 5.5% in May and June. Fannie said that lower coupons can be bought out ahead of this monthly schedule if they’re 24 months delinquent or ready for permanent modification under loss mitigation (per FNMA) FNMA has announced that it will repurchase 220,000 loans in the April report.

With no news today, aside from many folks watching the results of the NCAA basketball tournament, the trading today may match yesterday’s (and much of the week’s): spreads steady, moderate selling from originators (e.g., moderate locks), buying from the Fed, money managers, hedge funds, servicers. There is some movement of positions from April out to May in order to avoid some volatility due to the Fannie & Freddie buyouts and the end of the Fed purchase plan on the 31^st. Some traders believe that volatility will increase substantially when the Fed exits the market as the street’s appetite for risk remains very low.

As opposed to today, which has no scheduled economic news, yesterday we had quite a bit. I had already mentioned the inflation numbers and initial claims. Later in the morning we also saw the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators increase for the 11^th straight month – impressive, and consistent with the belief that the economy has bottomed out and is slowly strengthening. The “Philly Fed” came out slightly stronger than expected, which also helped the equity markets but to the detriment of bonds. In fact, stocks have improved for 8 straight days.

The yield curve, which has been steepening, recently has gone the other way. In fact, the slope of the curve, measuring the difference between risk-free Treasury 2-yr notes and 30-yr bonds, fell to the narrowest level in two months. At the short end, futures show a 38% chance that the FOMC will increase the Fed Funds’ target by at least a quarter-percentage point by the September meeting, compared with 49% odds a month ago. With no news today, we find the yield on the 10-yr. Treasury note sitting around 3.69% and mortgage prices worse between .125 and .250 depending on coupon.

Joke of the day is here.

Rob

(Check out http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/channels/pipelinepress/default.aspx. For archived commentaries, check www.robchrisman.com, )