Author: Andy Behrens

Nobody thought Jake Peavy’s(notes) transition from a pitcher-friendly N.L. park to a hitter-friendly A.L. park would go flawlessly.

In fact, predicting a decline in his fantasy value was a layup. But the assumption was that he would continue to be Jake Peavy — throwing the usual Peavy stuff — and the stats would change to reflect the increased degree of difficulty. That’s not exactly how things are playing out, however.

At times, Peavy simply can’t find the strike zone. He’s walked 20 hitters in 28.2 innings this month, a new career high, and he needed 41 pitches to get through the first frame against the Rangers on Wednesday. Peavy gave up a 430-foot bomb to Josh Hamilton(notes), then allowed a sequence of walks and singles to the Rangers’ 5-9 hitters. He eventually settled down, but not before five runs were on the board. The White Sox ultimately lost, 6-5. 

In Peavy’s last two starts, he’s pitched 10.2 innings and issued 12 walks. This is not standard practice for him at all. He got off to a rough start last year, sure, but it wasn’t this rough, nor this wild.

Here’s what he told reporters following the loss to Texas, via the Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley:

"The bottom line is I’m still searching, but it’s coming. The end result is not about finding it, though; it’s about winning games. You’re not paid to try and find your mechanics."

Peavy went into greater detail prior to Wednesday’s start. More Cowley:

"If you go look at my delivery at the start of last year to what it was before my last start, it doesn’t look like the same guy," Peavy said. "A big part of that is my legs. For some reason, I quit using my legs. It’s pretty easy to think why."

[…]

"My ankle was hurt, and I pitched three or four games with it in San Diego," he said. "Probably took my legs right out of the equation subconsciously because I was injured."

He added that he’s returning to his old delivery — the one that made him a fantasy asset — but that it feels a bit "awkward."

As I see it, there are three pieces of good news for Peavy owners: 1) He believes that he’s identified the problem, 2) his velocity hasn’t been so bad (90-92 mph), and 3) he’ll miss the upcoming series with Yankees. Peavy’s next three starts should be against Kansas City, Toronto, then KC again.

We know that at his best, he’s an ace. Peavy was never likely to deliver 2007-style stats in Chicago, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be helpful. Don’t make a panic move here. Buy if you can, don’t sell. Peavy was dropped by 3,520 Yahoo! owners on Wednesday and he’s been fired nearly 2,000 times today, but he deserves a much longer fantasy leash. Let’s just see how he handles the Royals before giving him away. 

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Photo via AP Images

Neftali Feliz(notes) picked up a save against the White Sox on Wednesday, but he did it in the messiest possible way. Asked to protect a three-run lead, Feliz allowed three hits, two earned runs and one wild pitch. He struck out no one. Juan Pierre(notes) very nearly extended the inning with an infield hit, but he was out at first base by an eyelash.  

The Feliz experiment, which seemed so promising a week ago, can’t go on like this much longer. He’s given up 10 hits and six runs over his last four innings. According to the team’s Website, "The Rangers’ closer situation is fluid."

Frank Francisco(notes) has been excellent during Feliz’s struggles, having allowed just three hits and one run in seven innings dating back to April 12. He was warming in the bullpen while Feliz was getting hit on Wednesday. Francisco picked up a save against Chicago the night before in a clean, 10-pitch inning. He seems well positioned to reclaim his old role … and lose it again. That’s the thing with fluid situations.

Francisco’s ownership level has fallen to just 44 percent in Yahoo! leagues. Claim him from the discard pile if you can.

• The Rockies and Diamondbacks combined to score 23 runs on Wednesday afternoon, in a game that felt like a 2010 Closing Time best-of compilation: Kelly Johnson(notes) and Chris Young homered, Miguel Olivo(notes) scored two runs, Franklin Morales(notes) struggled, and Juan Gutierrez(notes) earned a save. (No known job change there. Just planned rest for Chad Qualls(notes)).

The actionable news is that Eric Young Jr. hit lead-off for the Rockies for the second straight day. He reached base twice and recorded his second steal of the season. Clint Barmes(notes) has been largely useless thus far (.189/.271/.340), so there’s an obvious opportunity for Young. We’ve had this fire drill before. You should know the deal with EYJ: He swiped 58 bases at Triple-A last season, 46 at Double-A in ’08, and 73 at Single-A in ’07. Right now he’s just three percent owned.

• Max Scherzer(notes) has a sketchy history against left-handed hitters (career 1.56 WHIP), and the Twins took full advantage. Jim Thome(notes) went deep in the first, and Scherzer was chased by a parade of singling lefties in the fourth. Nothing like a 14.73 ERA and 2.73 WHIP to wreck your fantasy night.

• The Pirates won for the second straight day, again demonstrating that they absolutely own the Brewers. No mas, Doumit. For the details on the Trevor Hoffman(notes) situation, click here. LaTroy Hawkins(notes) appears to be Plan B, based on usage. Carlos Villanueva(notes) is the darkhorse. He has the Ks and the SP-eligibility.

• If it’s possible for any closer to give up runs quietly, then that’s what Octavio Dotel(notes) has done. He blew a save opportunity on Wednesday, allowing two hits, two walks and one earned run over two innings — and that performance lowered both his ERA and WHIP.

Dotel has allowed 11 earned runs in his past 6.1 innings. He’s been scored upon in each of his last six appearances. Evan Meek(notes) is currently the only member of that ‘pen putting up useful numbers (14 Ks in 14.0 IP, 1.07 WHIP), though Joel Hanrahan(notes) appears to be next in line for the ninth. No part of this blurb makes me regret paying a little bit extra for saves in 2010.

In fairness to Dotel, it’s hard to believe no one (himself included) got a glove on Wednesday’s run-scoring single.

• Bengie Molina(notes) did his best to keep Buster Posey(notes) in the minors, going 3-for-4 and raising his average to .350. Aubrey Huff(notes), however, went 0-for-4 with three Ks and he left four runners on base. Nate Schierholtz(notes) was a perfect 5-for-5 with three runs scored. His power/speed potential is fairly modest; there’s no obvious reason to jump aboard unless you’re in a deep set-up.

• The Giants managed to lose on a day that Tim Lincecum(notes) went 8.1 innings and struck out 11. Jayson Werth(notes) hit a bases-clearing double off Brian Wilson(notes) in the ninth, costing Lincecum the win. It was not exactly a well-hit ball, but it was ridiculously well-placed. Here’s the highlight. Wilson and Ryan Madson(notes) both recorded blown saves in Philly’s extra-innings win.  

• Four starts into his pro career, Cincinnati’s Mike Leake(notes) is 2-0 with a 3.25 ERA and 18 Ks in 27.2 innings. Not spectacular stats, fantasy-wise, but that will play in NL-only. Drew Stubbs(notes) showed signs of life for the Reds, going 2-for-4 with a steal.

Too short for a bullet, too big to ignore: Marlon Byrd(notes) made the best accidental play of the day. Video here. When stuff like that is happening, a normal team would find a way to win. Instead, the Cubs lost to the Nats. … My fondness for Howie Kendrick(notes) was in no way diminished by this walk-off bunt. … Jon Lester(notes) dominated a sad collection of Blue Jays, allowing just one hit over seven innings and striking out 11. Presumably you were never panicked there. … Chris Tillman(notes) tossed a no-hitter for Triple-A Norfolk, striking out six and blanking Freddie Freeman’s(notes) Gwinnett Braves. Tillman will find his way back to Baltimore before long, but the quality-of-opponent issues won’t go away in the AL East. … Jaime Garcia(notes) further cooled off Atlanta’s outrageously cold lineup, limiting the Braves to four hits and no runs over seven innings. Check the batting averages down the line for ATL: .197 (Escobar), .361 (Prado), .241 (Chipper), .203 (Glaus), .200 (Diaz), .197 (Cabrera), .200 (Ross), .160 (McLouth). Jason Heyward(notes) is stuck in a slump, so he took the night off against the left-handed Garcia. His manager says he’s taking too many hittable strikes, and thus falling behind too often. Whatever gets him swinging, I’ll endorse.

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Photos via AP Images (Feliz) and US Presswire (Dotel)

Here’s the nicest thing we can say about Trevor Hoffman’s(notes) blown save on Wednesday: This time, Ryan Doumit’s(notes) homer didn’t travel quite as far.

Tuesday’s grand slam was an absolute bomb, but Wednesday’s game-tying blast traveled only the necessary distance down the right-field line.

Unfortunately for Hoffman, his manager doesn’t seem to consider shorter home runs to be a sign of progress. This from MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy:

Ken Macha suggested that his struggling closer was due at least a
one-day break.

"That’s two days in a row for him," Macha said. "[On Thursday], if we
have a chance to win it, perhaps it will be somebody else at the end of
the game."

Just to be clear, this is not an official loss-of-job event. Macha was only discussing his Thursday plans. McCalvy expects LaTroy Hawkins(notes) to get the save chance if an opportunity arises. Hawkins has been a bit unsteady this year as well, but he’s pitched clean innings in three of his last four appearances.

Meanwhile, Hoffman has blown saves on consecutive days, and he’s already up to four this month. He’s allowed six home runs in just nine innings, which cannot be attributed to mere bad luck. Take action tonight if you want tomorrow’s save. 

A pitcher with Hoffman’s credentials clearly gets a long leash, but it’s worth noting that Macha has been meeting with anyone who might have any insight. It feels like a plan is coming together:

After Tuesday’s loss, Macha had chats with pitching coach Rick
Peterson and general manager Doug Melvin about the struggling closer.
On Wednesday morning, Macha spoke with assistant GM Gord Ash, who thinks
the problem is mostly location, and head athletic trainer Roger
Caplinger, who assured that Hoffman is in top physical shape, as usual.

Then Macha met with Hoffman himself, behind a closed door in the
manager’s office about an hour before the Brewers-Pirates series finale.

…and then Doumit got him again. And tomorrow, Hoffman sits.

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Photo via AP Images

Each year, millions of Americans fill out NCAA tournament brackets and billions of dollars are wagered on the event. Media companies dedicate countless hours to coverage, focusing primarily on prediction. No one seems to have precise statistics on the total time and money invested in NCAA pools, because the whole enterprise is so incredibly vast.

Yahoo! hosts a free bracket game, Tourney Pick’Em, that attracts tens of thousands of users. The winner collects a $10,000 prize. That’s your 2010 champ pictured over on the right, enjoying a carrot. Her name is Buttons. And no, this is not a joke, as far as I know.

You, me, everyone you know and every national college basketball expert — Vitale, Bilas, Pomeroy, Kellogg, et al — were all schooled by Buttons the guinea pig this year. This story would be kinda cute, if it weren’t also a total indictment of mainstream sports analysis.

Technically, of course, Tourney Pick’Em was won by a human. His name is Jake Johnson, and he’s an MBA student at the University of Tennessee. He’ll get the $10K. He and his girlfriend share custody of Buttons and a second guinea pig, Brain. Johnson claims to have deferred to Buttons on nearly all of his NCAA picks.

We caught up with him to get the details on his methodology, and the story sounds legit.

"My family does a bracket pool every March," he told us, "where inevitably my sister — who maybe watches five minutes of sports per year — beats me, despite my living and breathing sports. Of course given the competitive nature of our sibling-ship, I never hear the end of it. To prove to my sister that it takes absolutely no knowledge of college basketball to do well, I decided to use the guinea pig to fill out a bracket.

"I read [Buttons] the names of the teams, and waited for her to choose a team by purring. We repeated this process for 58 of the 63 games, excluding the first round games for the No. 1 seeds and eliminating Ohio University in the
first round — I have a strong personal grudge against the Bobcats."

That’s your winning formula in a nutshell: Carry the top seeds into Round 2, disrespect the Ohio Bobcats — who actually beat Georgetown in the first round — and wait for your rodent to purr.

I’m familiar with lots of ridiculous, arbitrary methods for making NCAA
predictions, but this approach seems new. I don’t think I was even aware that guinea pigs made noise.

Nonetheless, Buttons correctly predicted six of the Elite Eight, three of the Final Four, and she picked Duke over Butler in the title game. She didn’t miss a thing in the West Region. Here’s a link to the winning entry. Please take note of its name. 

"We laughed at Buttons’ decision to have Butler lose to Duke in the championship after beating Michigan State," said Jake. "Any knowledgeable human knows that two No. 5 seeds would never make it to the Final Four."

Well, obviously. In Johnson’s family pool, he again lost to his sister.

Buttons will enjoy a few small habitat upgrades following the win, but she’s already well cared for. Her day-to-day life isn’t so different from anyone else’s, really.

"She enjoys carrots, kale, hay, and just about anything else she can eat — including her own poop, which is apparently something all guinea pigs do. Considering her recent success, I am not in a position to judge. She spends most of her day laying in one of her castles or her tiki hut." 

OK, so there are certain differences — the castles, the kale — but at a fundamental level, we can all relate to Buttons.

Johnson tells us that some portion of the Pick’Em winnings will be donated to the Knoxville Guinea Pig Rescue, which seems appropriate. In case you’re wondering, he and his girlfriend have not officially put Buttons on the market, but…

"I don’t think the pig is for sale, but just tossing out a number — assuming $10,000 every March for the next 5 or 6 years, less cage-cleaning and carrot expenses — $45,000 doesn’t seem too unreasonable. More likely, I would sell her services on consignment, and collect a portion of the inevitable winnings."

He will not discuss a breeding fee. "It makes good business sense to keep the market cornered on guinea pigs with future-seeing capabilities." 

Can’t argue with that. Congrats to Team Buttons. Well-played, pig.

According to a report in Tuesday’s San Francisco Chronicle, Giants catching prospect Buster Posey(notes) could arrive a bit sooner than we’d originally anticipated, regardless of his arbitration clock. Here’s the scoop from Henry Schulman:

One team official said fans likely will not see Posey in San Francisco this weekend or even in Florida next week. However, the brass is keeping close tabs on Posey as the Giants’ offense regresses.

The 2008 first-round draft pick is catching and playing first base at Triple-A Fresno at a time when Giants catcher Bengie Molina(notes) and first baseman Aubrey Huff(notes) are not producing. One does not need binoculars to see the potential benefit of Posey as a backup at each position.

Molina is actually batting .308 at the moment, although he’s just 3-for-23 over his last seven games. Huff is hitting .239, which is almost dead-on his lifetime April average (.243). Neither player is doing anything unexpected.

Meanwhile, Posey is hitting .353/.438/.456 at Fresno. He only has four extra-base hits, though, so it’s not as if he’s playing home run derby in the PCL, a traditionally hitter-friendly league. As Schulman mentions, "reports on the ground say [Posey] is not driving the ball." Buster was a .325/.416/.531 hitter across two levels in 2009, however, and he hit 18 homers with 31 doubles in 497 plate appearances. 

I’d still rate Carlos Santana(notes) ahead of Posey for 2010 fantasy purposes, but it’s beginning to sound as if Buster will win the race to the big leagues.

His grown-up name, just for the record, is "Gerald Demp Posey III." Not quite as creepy as Larry Wayne Jones Jr., but close. 

Programming note: This week’s Closing Thoughts has been delayed, due to completely foreseeable circumstances that we nonetheless failed to adequately plan for. Here’s the incredibly short version: Kerry Wood(notes) is progressing, Chad Qualls(notes) is recovering, Brad Lidge(notes) is returning, Neftali Feliz(notes) is stumbling, Frank Francisco(notes) is improving, the O’s got nothin’, and Octavio Dotel(notes) has been awful (in keeping with team tradition).

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Photo via AP Images 

Florida Marlins outfield prospect Michael Stanton(notes) single-handedly destroyed the Carolina Mudcats on Monday, belting three homers and driving in seven runs. That makes seven hits, five home runs and 11 RBIs over the past two days for the 20-year-old. He’s gone deep nine times for Jacksonville in 17 games, and he’s now batting .338. Double-A pitching doesn’t seem to be much of a challenge for him this year.

You’ll recall that Stanton impressed everyone in spring training, hitting .286/.355/.714 over 28 at-bats. In the image above, he’s admiring the flight of a home run hit against Francisco Liriano(notes) on March 15. He entered the season ranked No. 3 on Baseball America’s top prospect list, behind only Jason Heyward(notes) and Stephen Strasburg(notes), so it’s not as if expectations were low. 

If you’re in a larger league and looking for a mid-season lottery ticket in the power categories, keep Stanton in mind. He hit 39 homers at Single-A in 2008 and 28 across two levels last year. He’s already in the player pool, too. (Just don’t mistakenly add this dude). In the past, Ks have been a serious issue for Stanton (144 in ’09), but he’s walked as often as he’s struck out this season. Both of Florida’s corner outfielders are struggling, so a May/June Stanton call-up no longer seems farfetched. 

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Photo via Getty Images

Just in case you’ve ever believed — even for a second — that NFL teams are forthcoming with information, we present the case of Jahvid Best(notes), the running back selected by the Detroit Lions with the No. 30 overall pick in the 2010 Draft.

Best reportedly had no idea that the Lions were interested in him — none at all. He met Detroit’s coaches at the NFL Combine (where Best ran a 4.35-second 40), but in the weeks that followed, "they didn’t call, they didn’t write and they didn’t invite him for a visit," according to Paula Pasche of the Oakland Press. Detroit nonetheless made a mid-draft deal with division rival Minnesota to acquire the pick necessary to select him. The Lions will now give a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract to a player they’ve been deliberately avoiding for a month.

That’s simply how business is conducted in the NFL (and how dating is conducted in junior high). If you’re interested, ignore.

Oddly enough, Detroit’s coaches apparently scout players in exactly the same way that fantasy owners do it. This from Pasche:

Coach Jim Schwartz credits Scott Linehan, the Lions’ offensive coordinator, for first bringing Best to his attention last fall.

"(Linehan) said, ‘Man what I would do for a running back like that. That guy, I don’t know if he’s coming out or what he would do in the draft, but I just watched him play a game and that guy is everything we are looking for,’" Schwartz said.

So Schwartz Googled the Best highlights and joined the campaign to get him to Detroit.

Lions fans, please note that if Best turns out to be a total bust, it’s Google’s fault. No one else’s.

But he isn’t likely to disappoint. In fact, he’s much more likely to emerge as the most dangerous back in the 2010 draft class. Here are a few of the highlights that may have persuaded Coach Schwartz…

—

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There’s breakaway speed, and then there’s whatever Best has. He’s a ridiculous talent, and the Lions needed to upgrade the backfield
in the worst way. You might recall that last year’s leading rusher, Kevin Smith(notes), tore
his ACL late in a blowout loss. In all likelihood, Best fell as far as he did due to concerns about his size (5-10, 199) and injury history (concussion, toe, foot, elbow, hip, etc). His ceiling is certainly as high as anyone’s.

As Schwartz told Yahoo!’s Michael Silver (creepily), "Some people watch adult videos on their computer. I go to YouTube and watch Jahvid Best highlight clips." And just like the video consumers to whom he relates, Schwartz smartly keeps his fetishes to himself. 

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Photo via US Presswire

OK, so on the surface, the idea that the Braves might be willing to trade another collection of prospects for a soon-to-be free agent first baseman seems, well … ridiculous.

You’ll recall that in July of 2007, Atlanta acquired Mark Teixeira(notes) from Texas in exchange for a package that included, among others, the Rangers’ present-day shortstop (Elvis Andrus(notes)), closer (Neftali Feliz(notes)), catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia(notes)) and fifth starter (Matt Harrison(notes)). The Braves then finished third in the NL East, missing the playoffs. The following year, they dealt Teixeira to the Angels for Casey Kotchman(notes) and a minor league pitcher who remains in the minors (Stephen Marek).

Surely no one in Atlanta has any interest in repeating that experience. Nevertheless, the team’s current first baseman is batting .167/.237/.278 (Troy Glaus(notes)), and Plan B is a 32-year-old with a career OPS of .775 (Eric Hinske(notes)). Freddie Freeman(notes) is a terrific prospect, no doubt, but he’s only 20 and he’s still trying to figure out Triple-A.

As a result, it’s perhaps no surprise that the Adrian Gonzalez-to-Atlanta rumors have begun, though not with any confirmation from either team. It’s just pure speculation from Fox’s Jon Paul Morosi. Freeman would presumably have to be a component of any Gonzalez trade. (Again, not that there is one). And of course Gonzalez will command a nine-figure contract at the end of his current deal, which is up in 2011. And then there’s the long shadow cast by the Teixeira trades.

Still, on behalf of the global community of fantasy owners who’ve invested in Gonzalez in NL-only leagues, I fully endorse this non-deal. Let’s bring together some Pads and Braves fans in comments and hammer out a trade, then send it to the league for approval.

If Glaus can’t hit in April and May — historically, these are his best months — then he may simply be finished.

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Photo via US Presswire 

I’m just going to take it on faith that most of you realize Carlos Silva(notes) is not a significant asset, despite the three useful starts against three struggling lineups. (He’s faced the Reds, Astros and Mets, in that order). Silva is certainly not a pitcher whose innings need to be maxed-out.  

Furthermore, I’m going to assume that you don’t need to be convinced that Carlos Zambrano(notes) is a durable, productive starter — certainly one of the three best arms in the Cubs’ rotation, despite the occasional, um … episode. Zambrano’s April performance has no doubt disappointed many of you, yet he’s still delivered a pair of nine-strikeout games. He’s only 28 years old, his career ERA is 3.56, his K/9 is 7.74, and his lifetime winning percentage is .602. This is a guy who should get as many innings as he can possibly handle. 

Oh, and he’ll earn roughly $17.9 million this year. But for an unspecified period of time, Zambrano will be a member of the Cubs’ bullpen. Here’s manager Lou Piniella via MLB.com:

"We’ll have a Carlos setup guy and a Carlos closer," Piniella said.

So adorable!

(Still insane, though).

Lou continued…

"I talked to Carlos [Zambrano] today and told him we really needed him in the bullpen, and that we felt he could do a nice job for us," Piniella said. "He said he’d do what’s best for the team. I’m very appreciative. He talked about maturing [this year]. This proves it to me."

To me, this decision proves only that the Chicago Cubs are institutionally broken. It’s a baffling, panicky reaction to 15 games worth of data. Zambrano’s reassignment to the ‘pen is reportedly temporary, but Piniella seems to be holding him hostage until general manager Jim Hendry can acquire a proper set-up man: 

"We’re trying to stabilize things and win some baseball games," Piniella said. "This will give Jim and the front office more opportunities to do something."

How does Zambrano himself feel about the situation?

"I don’t like to be a reliever," he said. "I don’t want to be a reliever. This team needs somebody to step up and help the bullpen."

I’ve already expressed my disgust; additional complaining clearly won’t fix the Cubs. Lou has never struck me as a dude who spends much time reading fantasy blogs, so this is hardly the best way to appeal to him. 

The fantasy spin here is simple: Zambrano is almost valueless in standard mixed leagues, since he won’t be closing or starting. He’s just another high-K reliever. (Brad told you to drop him). If you have a deep bench in a more competitive format, he’s perhaps worth a lowball trade offer, depending on your circumstances. In a league that uses Holds as a category, he’s great. The SP-eligibility is a big plus.

Do whatever must be done, gamer. Before we downshift to the usual Closing Time bullets — and there’s actionable stuff tonight, so don’t miss it — feel free to review what others are saying about Big Z and the Cubs:

Ed Price, Fanhouse: "[Zambrano] makes $17.875 million this year — about nine times the average of the other 29 eight-inning pitchers. That’s more than $14 million more than Rafael Betancourt(notes), the second-highest paid set-up man."

Matthew Pouliot, Hardball Talk: "Zambrano has a history of tensing up in big situations, making him a possible timebomb in a late-inning role. Maybe he’ll be great. Maybe he’ll be the terrific seventh- and eighth-inning guy the Cubs need. But Zambrano was pretty much a lock to be an above average starter this year."

Rob Neyer, SweetSpot: "It’s hard to sit a guy with a 0.69 ERA (Silva), or even a guy with a 1.93 ERA (Gorzelanny). Those numbers will change, though, and probably quite soon. When they get where they’re supposed to, Zambrano will take his rightful place in the rotation. You just have to wonder if his heart will come along for the ride."

Jack Moore, Fangraphs: "The Cubs’ chances at the division were low coming into the season. If Piniella’s rash and irrational decision stays in place, they become virtually nil."

Kurt, Goat Riders of the Apocalypse: "Q: What team had the highest-paid relief pitcher in history? A: GAAAAAAH!" 

So see, it’s not just me. If you’re a Cubs fan who’s still trying to process an unimaginable move, I recommend this thread over at North Side Baseball. It’s a glorious, heroic attempt to put a hopeful spin on a hopeless situation.

And now we bullet…

• Chad Qualls(notes) was unusually bad, even by his recent standards. He allowed three hits and three runs to the Cardinals in just one-third of an inning. (And the out he recorded was a sacrifice, so he shouldn’t get full credit). Qualls was pitching for a third straight night, it should be noted, and the first two weren’t complete disasters.

Juan Gutierrez(notes) remains the handcuff here. He lowered his ERA to 6.43 with two clean innings on Tuesday. You shouldn’t be surprised if the D-backs make a move, maybe stashing Qualls on the DL. Arizona’s manager was not in the mood to deliver another vote of confidence following the loss. This via the AP game recap:

“It’s getting pretty ridiculous to be honest, and it’s no fun to lose
these
games,” manager A.J. Hinch said. “It’s hard to find new ways to describe
late
inning failures, where they scratch not one, not two, but multiple runs
on top
of us to take us out of games.”

Colby Rasmus(notes) homered twice for St. Louis, so there’s almost no chance Del Don will trade him to me now. 

• Brian Fuentes(notes) came off the disabled list and promptly blew a save, giving up two hits, two walks and two runs to the Tigers. The first batter he faced in his return was Miguel Cabrera(notes), who homered. We already discussed this situation in Closing Thoughts on Tuesday; there’s clearly a good chance that Fernando Rodney(notes) will take over the ninth inning for the Angels. But Mike Scioscia certainly didn’t ease Fuentes back into the mix. Of course Rodney has been pitching pretty much every day, so there wasn’t really a choice. Anyway: Rodney should be owned, everywhere. 

• Phil Hughes(notes) carried a no-hitter into the eighth against the A’s, but Eric Chavez(notes) broke it up with a solid grounder up the middle that actually struck the pitcher. Hughes was fantastic (obviously), striking out 10. Video here. He’s still available in 35 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Why that is, I can’t say.

• Cleveland catching prospect Carlos Santana(notes) is considered day-to-day after fouling a pitch off his right knee on Wednesday. He’s hit four homers over his 13 games at Triple-A, posting an OPS of 1.178. Santana will be an impact fantasy add when he finally gets the call. In deeper leagues, he’s been owned for weeks. Hopefully this injury is merely a bruise. 

• Jose Guillen(notes) continued his binge for the Royals (2-for-4, HR, 3 RBIs), and Jason Kendall(notes) maintained the one-hit-per-night magic. Shaun Marcum(notes) took another no-decision for the Jays, despite pitching well enough to win (again).

• Placido Polanco(notes) was drilled by a pitch on the left elbow, but X-rays were reportedly negative. Roy Halladay(notes) threw his usual shutout, with an assist to Shane Victorino(notes). (Homer-saving catch. Highlight here).

• Ryan Zimmerman(notes) left the Nats win due to right hamstring soreness, but he said the issue was "more like a cramp than anything." This isn’t his first hamstring issue of the season, but he claims this "doesn’t feel anywhere close to as bad as the other one." So it appears his owners have avoided catastrophe.

• In other Washington news, Stephen Strasburg(notes) was brilliant over five innings in his third start for Double-A Harrisburg. He allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out six. The effort required just 68 pitches. If the Nationals plan to continue this whole development ruse, they’ll need to find tougher minor league competition.

• Jimmy Rollins(notes) will be eligible to come off the disabled list next Wednesday, but that ain’t happenin’: "I’ll need more time than that. A couple years ago I had an ankle injury and I pushed it. Agility and speed are a big part of my game, so we can’t rush this. … I should be back sometime in the first two weeks of May."

• Ronald Belisario(notes) pitched a clean frame in his return from the restricted list. No other pitcher involved in the Dodgers’ 14-6 win over the Harangs can say the same. Those of us who started Hiroki Kuroda(notes) caught a break, because three of the six runs he allowed were unearned.

• Houston’s Bud Norris(notes) delivered another acceptable line against Florida (5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K), though it wasn’t as useful as last week’s nine-K effort. Matt Lindstrom(notes) did the saving.

• Mark Ellis(notes) missed seven games for Oakland with a left hamstring strain, then returned on Tuesday, then decided he needed to hit the DL. That’s not really the ideal way to handle such situations. "I kind of wasted seven days," Ellis noted. Spring sensation Adam Rosales(notes) handled second base duties for the A’s on Wednesday. 

• What were the odds that JD Drew(notes) and Julio Borbon(notes) would have solid fantasy lines on the same day? Not good, I suppose. But Drew hit a grand slam early in Boston’s extra-inning win, and Borbon went 3-for-5 with a pair of steals. All we had to do was light a fire.

• Sean Rodriguez(notes) finally broke out, a week after you dropped him. He went 3-for-5 with two runs scored, four RBIs and a home run in the Rays’ 12-0 battering of Mark Buehrle(notes) and the White Sox. Wade Davis(notes) got the win, allowing just two hits in six innings while striking out six. 

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Ted Lilly(notes) returns from the disabled list this weekend, so the Cubs have decided to send Carlos Zambrano(notes) to the bullpen — not Tom Gorzelanny(notes) or Carlos Silva(notes), but Zambrano.

Big Z struggled on opening day, per his usual. But in his three most recent starts he’s pitched 18 innings, struck out 25 batters, and allowed eight earned runs. He is inarguably one of his team’s most talented starting pitchers. April has been Zambrano’s worst month historically, yet he’s never posted an ERA above 3.95 in any full season. In case you’re wondering, he’ll earn $17.9 million this year, $17.9 million in 2011, $18 million in
2012, and he has a vesting option for 2013.

According to MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, "The Cubs didn’t want to move Carlos Silva into the bullpen because he’s been on a hot streak, and southpaw Tom Gorzelanny wouldn’t fit as well in relief."

For the record, Silva’s hot streak is exactly two games old. Opposing batters have hit .303 against him over the course of his nine-year career. Silva’s lifetime ERA is 4.67. Gorzelanny’s is 4.80.

Zambrano is not an immediate threat to take over Carlos Marmol’s(notes) closing role, of course. He’s just another guy in the ‘pen for now. Instead of giving him his typical 200 innings, the Cubs have apparently chosen to give him 80 this year. Here’s manager Lou Piniella:

"This makes all the sense in the world and I appreciate Carlos doing this," said Piniella of the decision. "It gives us some power at the end of the ballgame. With Zambrano and [Carlos] Marmol, it gives us some firepower."

You didn’t ask for my opinion, but here it is: This decision isn’t merely stupid, it’s weapons-grade stupid. Total organizational failure. Even if Zambrano is successful in the setup role, this is an atrocious use of resources. This move is neither bold nor innovative. It’s just insane.

I can’t possibly talk you off the ledge, Cubs fans. Perhaps our commenters can help…

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Photo via US Presswire 

Ben Roethlisberger(notes) was fantastic last season, statistically speaking. He threw 26 touchdown passes and established career highs in both yards (4328) and completions (337). Roethlisberger finished third among all quarterbacks in per-game fantasy scoring, passing for multiple TDs in eight of his 15 games. Late in the season, during the fantasy playoffs, he put up 503 yards and three scores against Green Bay.

It was, all things considered, a ridiculously productive year. But everything he accomplished on the field in 2009 has since been overshadowed by his disastrous off-season.

On Wednesday, Roethlisberger reportedly will be suspended by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell for four to six games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. Apparently the suspension can be limited to only four games if Roethlisberger meets certain conditions. (That is, if he manages not to do anything monumentally stupid). 

By offering a fantasy spin, we don’t mean to trivialize the events that led to the suspension. It’s an ugly story. And then there’s the other ugly story. Prosecutors in Georgia have not filed charges, yet the NFL obviously determined that — in Goodell’s words — Roethlisberger has engaged in "a pattern of behavior and bad judgments." Presumably we can all agree that he’s guilty of at least that much.

In fantasy, you eventually learn to disassociate players from their stats, and that’s what we’ll try to do here. We’re interested only in the set of numbers that will accompany Roethlisberger in 2010, not the allegations and persistent questions. His absence for at least a quarter of the regular season clearly affects his fantasy value, although it isn’t the only factor in the equation.

In case you hadn’t noticed, he’s a complicated player.

Let’s begin with what we can assume will be a four-week ban. Fantasy owners often overstate the impact of an early season suspension on a player’s worth — it’s not as if Roethlisberger will serve his league-imposed punishment during your fantasy championship, after all. But he won’t be available to assist your team in the opening four weeks, and that’s not exactly meaningless. Toss in Pittsburgh’s bye and suddenly — in the best-case scenario — Roethlisberger can only contribute in eight weeks of a 13-game fantasy regular season. On the basis of this fact alone, you can’t draft him as a fantasy starter in a league of standard size. 

And that’s before we consider his injury potential. Roethlisberger has been the most frequently sacked quarterback in the NFL over the past three seasons, and no one else is particularly close. He tied for the league lead in sacks last year (50), and finished second in both 2008 and 2007 (46, 47). Pittsburgh will no doubt address the offensive line via the draft, perhaps with multiple picks, but Roethlisberger’s pathological willingness to sustain hits is another issue entirely. He’s been sacked 242 times through his age-27 season, and there’s at least some reason to believe that quarterbacks who endure that level of abuse in their early years tend to have short careers and abbreviated primes.

But that’s more of a long-term concern. In the year ahead, while Roethlisberger takes his usual beating, Pittsburgh’s receiving corps will have one less weapon. Santonio Holmes(notes) led the Steelers in receiving yards last season (1248) and he’s caught 18 touchdown passes over the past three seasons (plus three more in the playoffs), yet he was dealt to the Jets earlier this month in exchange for a fifth round pick. Mike Wallace(notes) receives a bump in value after delivering outstanding numbers as a rookie (39-756-6), but Holmes will certainly be missed.

The pre-draft buzz — which is often disinformation, but let’s imagine it’s accurate — suggests that Pittsburgh won’t target receivers in the early rounds. If true, then Wallace, Hines Ward(notes) and Heath Miller(notes) will be the primary targets; Antwaan Randle El(notes), Arnaz Battle(notes) and Limas Sweed(notes) will get the leftovers. (Sweed is basically the anti-Cris Carter: All he does is drop touchdowns). Thus it’s not a surprise that Art Rooney II himself has reportedly urged head coach Mike Tomlin to reshape the offense and "run the ball more consistently."

That’s good news for Rashard Mendenhall(notes), if his line is up to the challenge. However, it’s not great news for Roethlisberger, a man who attempted a career-high 33.7 passes per game last season.

If we were to draft a 2010 fantasy league today (a terrible idea), we’d have to account for all the red flags attached to Roethlisberger: His 10-12 game season, his susceptibility to on-field punishment, his weakened receiving corps, and his offense’s renewed commitment to the run. And we can’t ignore his history of bad judgment (Goodell’s words) in light of his team’s zero tolerance policy regarding off-field misconduct. And then there’s the very real possibility that Roethlisberger might be traded. And if he’s not dealt, then you have to consider Pittsburgh’s ostensibly brutal late-season schedule. In Weeks 13-15, the Steelers will face three defenses (BAL, CIN, NYJ) that ranked among the AFC’s top four last year.  

So again, this is a complicated player. Good thing we’re not drafting today.

Nonetheless, we took a quick survey of Yahoo!’s fantasy analysts in order to gauge Roethlisberger’s value, pre-NFL Draft. Here are the preliminary 2010 composite quarterback ranks:

1. Drew Brees(notes)
2. Aaron Rodgers(notes)
3. Peyton Manning(notes)
4. Philip Rivers(notes)
5. Matt Schaub(notes)
6. Tony Romo(notes)
7. Tom Brady(notes)
8. Brett Favre(notes)
9. Eli Manning(notes)
10. Kevin Kolb(notes)
11. Donovan McNabb(notes)
12. Matt Ryan(notes)
13. Joe Flacco(notes)
14. Jay Cutler(notes)
15. Carson Palmer(notes)
16. Ben Roethlisberger
17. Matthew Stafford(notes)
18. Chad Henne(notes)
19. Vince Young(notes)
20. David Garrard(notes)

Roethlisberger’s stock is at a three-year low, following arguably the most impressive season of his career. The Steelers are expected to replace him with some combination of Dennis Dixon(notes) and Byron Leftwich(notes) during the opening weeks of 2010. Fantasy owners will obviously need to do better. 

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Brian Fuentes(notes) is expected to return from the disabled list on Wednesday, and he’ll reclaim the closer’s role for the Angels. Here’s manager Mike Scioscia via the Los Angeles Times:

"Right now, Brian is going to pitch the ninth," Scioscia said. "If we have to adjust, we will."

If they adjust, they’ll clearly lean on Fernando Rodney(notes). He’s pitched five perfect innings in Fuentes’ absence, earning a win and four saves while striking out four.

Everyone knows that Rodney has his flaws — he’s 33 and his career WHIP is 1.41 — but he filled in for Fuentes admirably. Don’t cut him loose too quickly. According to the terms of Fuentes’ deal, he’ll trigger a $9 million vesting option if he finishes 55 games this season. The Angels can’t reasonably allow that to happen. Fuentes led the majors in saves in 2009, but he staggered across the finish line, posting a 4.81 ERA and 1.68 WHIP after the break.

Here’s the minty fresh Tuesday closing grid, now with three times the cavity fighting power…

• Yes, Franklin Morales(notes) has blown consecutive save opportunities for Colorado, but the second of them was severely umpire-aided. He can’t lose the job under these circumstances. Huston Street(notes) has been throwing off flat ground, but we’re still waiting for a rehab timetable. 

• Chad Qualls(notes) received a vote of confidence from his manager after back-to-back blown saves against the Dodgers: "Qualls is our closer. It’s been a couple of rough games for him, but Qualls is our closer." Juan Gutierrez(notes) has given up three hits, six runs and three walks in his last two appearances, so he hasn’t exactly demanded Qualls’ job. And the Diamondbacks’ defense didn’t do Qualls any favors in Thursday’s blown save at L.A.

• Michael Gonzalez(notes) (shoulder) will pay a visit to Dr. Andrews for a second opinion, but Andy MacPhail found a complicated way to reassure us that nothing is wrong: "I have no reason to believe that the original prognosis is not the one that comes to fruition, which is to expect him back in like three weeks." Jim Johnson(notes) successfully converted a two-inning save against the A’s on Sunday after blowing a save on Saturday. Koji Uehara(notes) remains a darkhorse closing candidate, though he’s still DL’d.

• Brad Lidge(notes) (knee, elbow) finally figured out how to retire the opposing hitters at Single-A, so he’ll make the jump to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Assuming that he absolutely dominates there — safe assumption, no? — Lidge could return by the end of the month, following the Phillies’ nine-game road trip.

• Kerry Wood(notes) (back) is throwing bullpen sessions, awaiting a rehab schedule. Chris Perez(notes) has saved four games in Wood’s absence, but he’s also shown us Bad Perez. (Marson shoulda blocked that wild pitch, though). Like Fuentes, Wood has a vesting option for his team to fret about, but it could be out of reach by the time he returns. 

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Photo via AP Images

The Mets have the third-highest team payroll in the National League ($133 million), but they’re next-to-last in runs scored (48). Thus it should come as no great surprise that the team is ready to shuffle the lineup.

On Sunday, following New York’s 20-inning win over the Cardinals, the team designated first baseman Mike Jacobs(notes) for assignment, recalling relief pitcher Tobi Stoner(notes) as assistance for a depleted bullpen. But as soon as the Mets’ relief corps recovers from its busy weekend, first base prospect Ike Davis(notes) could be headed to Citi Field to replace Jacobs.

The Newark Star-Ledger reports that it’s practically a done deal:

…the Mets plan to call up Davis from Triple-A Buffalo sometime in the next several days — possibly as soon as Monday — according to a person familiar with the situation. When that will happen depends on how long the Mets need to carry 13 pitchers.

Davis was a first-round pick in the 2008 MLB Draft, and, after a rough beginning to his pro career at Single-A Brooklyn (58 games, zero homers), he seems to have figured out a few things. In 2009, he hit .298/.381/.524 with 20 homers and 31 doubles across two levels. Then he hit .341/.394/.565 over 21 games in the Arizona Fall League. And then he had a spectacular spring, batting .480 with three doubles and three homers in 12 games. Predictably, he’s off to a terrific start at Triple-A Buffalo, hitting .364/.500/.636 with two homers in his first 10 games.

We may soon learn if Davis, 23, can make the transition to the big leagues. Strikeouts have been an issue (112 Ks in 488 plate appearances in ’09); you can’t reasonably expect Davis to immediately hit .300 against major league pitching. But there’s power potential here. Daniel Murphy(notes) (right MCL sprain) is still weeks away from returning to New York, so Davis could get an extended trial.

For fantasy purposes, he’s really a need-based add. Not many owners are desperately trying to fill a 1B, CI or Util spot this early in the season (except for Fred Wilpon). Davis offers no speed — he hasn’t stolen a base in his minor league career — and of course there are many other widely available corner infielders who can deliver useful fantasy stats (Headley, Huff, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wigginton, et al). But prospects often make the best trade chips — especially East Coast prospects — so Davis will have fantasy relevance when he arrives.

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Photo via US Presswire

It would be an exaggeration to say that Julio Borbon(notes) swings at everything. But so far this season, he’s hacked at most things. Borbon has swung at 50.9 percent of the pitches he’s seen and 38.5 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That gives him the 17th highest rate of bad-ball swings in the majors, according to the data at Fangraphs. 

Borbon is, without question, the most disappointing player who I haven’t yet dropped. He’s batting .083 through nine games. His OPS is somehow just .191. To date, he’s managed to hit exactly one line-drive. ONE. In 38 plate appearances, he’s been credited with 13 flyballs, 13 groundballs, and one line drive.

In case you’re wondering what Borbon’s walk-rate is, it’s nothin’. It’s zero percent. The Rangers’ primary leadoff hitter has not yet drawn a walk. For that reason — and presumably many others — he isn’t likely to be their leadoff hitter when he returns to the lineup at Boston on Tuesday. Instead, he’ll hit ninth.

An optimist might say that there’s an element of bad luck in Borbon’s poor start, and they’d remind us that at every professional level he’s been a .300 hitter with elite speed. But optimists can [profane]. They aren’t welcome here. This post is for Borbon complaints only. Please register yours in comments.

And if you’d like to complain about the analyst(s) who talked you into Borbon, that’s OK, too. Let’s just please keep the comments Julio-related in some way.

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Photo via US Presswire 

It may seem like Cameron Maybin(notes) is already a confirmed fantasy bust, but that’s only because the hype preceded the production by a few years. (Um … my bad. Sorry). He’s still just 23. This season, unlike last year, the early returns are promising.

Maybin stole another base on Sunday (his third) and went 2-for-4 against Cole Hamels(notes), raising his average to .309. He’s hitting at the top of Florida’s lineup, and he’s scored at least one run in 10 of his 13 games. Nonetheless, he’s only owned in 21 percent of Yahoo! leagues. 

You’ll recall that Maybin made his MLB debut with Detroit back in 2007, promptly homered off Roger Clemens, then basically spent the next three years striking out. He was dealt to Florida in the Miguel Cabrera(notes) trade, but failed to distinguish himself in the majors, except in September cameos. Maybin opened the 2009 season with the Marlins, but was demoted to Triple-A in May after hitting .202/.280/.310 over his first 26 games. 

Things have come together nicely in 2010, however. Johan Santana(notes) made Maybin look silly on opening day (0-for-3 with 3 Ks), but he’s reached base safely in every game thereafter. Maybin entered last season (and the prior season) ranked among the top 10 prospects in the game by Baseball America, and his minor league track record tells you that he’s a 15/25 sort of talent.

Don’t let him sit there in your free agent pool, un-owned. Maybin has a much higher fantasy ceiling than almost anyone in the 20-60 percent ownership range. Go get him. Drop any other Marlins outfielder. Or drop Reimold (39 percent owned), Drew (39), Teahen (38), Hart (34), DeJesus (34), Schumaker (32), Cameron (24) or Byrd (23). When players like Maybin show signs of breaking out, mixed leaguers have to be willing to launch their less-interesting roster decorations.

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Photo via US Presswire

Actually, "marathon" isn’t quite the right word to describe Saturday’s game between the Mets and Cardinals, because no respectable distance runner would ever need six hours and 53 minutes to finish a 26.2 mile race.

It would be more appropriate to say that New York and St. Louis engaged in an epic filibuster on Saturday. The 20-inning contest featured 35 stranded runners, 19 different pitchers (two of whom were actually position players), and the longest scoreless stretch in the major leagues in over 20 years. It was hardly a clinic, nor was it a fantasy smorgasbord. The Cards left the bases loaded three times in extra innings. The top six spots in the Mets’ lineup combined to go 3-for-41.

"That was pretty crazy," said New York manager Jerry Manuel.

Indeed. Let’s review a few of the more interesting details…

• The game featured 652 total pitches, 159 plate appearances, and 46 players.

• New York closer Francisco Rodriguez estimated that he threw more than 100 warm-up pitches in the bullpen. He described his arm as "totally dead" by the time he entered the game in the 19th. Not surprisingly, K-Rod allowed two hits, one walk, and the Cards’ only run.

• Albert Pujols(notes) was intentionally walked in the 12th and 14th innings, with the pitcher’s spot due up. That’s right: the pitcher’s spot followed Pujols. Matt Holliday(notes) had exited the game in an 11th inning double-switch after going 0-for-5.

"Once that showed up," said Manuel, "we decided, hey, we’re not going to let (Pujols) beat us."

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa didn’t seem to regret the Holliday decision, however. This via the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

"I looked at five at-bats for a guy who got punched out three times, who’s obviously not himself — he’s forcing it. I think it’s kind of criminal to leave him in the game."

• Mike Pelfrey(notes) picked up the save for the Mets. He became the first full-time New York starter to earn a save since Dwight Gooden in 1989, according to the Newark Star-Ledger. 

• The Mets were no-hit by St. Louis starter Jaime Garcia(notes) for five innings. The 23-year-old lefty struck out five batters in seven frames. Angel Pagan’s(notes) single in the sixth was the only hit yielded by Garcia.

• Johan Santana(notes) racked up nine Ks in seven innings, not that anyone (other than his fantasy owners) will remember the effort.

• Jose Reyes, Jason Bay(notes) and Jeff Francoeur(notes) each went 0-for-7 for New York. 

• Yadier Molina(notes) caught every inning for St. Louis and went 3-for-9.

• Ryan Ludwick(notes) drew a lead-off walk in the 19th inning, but, incredibly, he was caught stealing with Pujols at the plate. Albert then doubled and scored on a Molina single.

• Infielder Felipe Lopez(notes) pitched the 18th for St. Louis, allowing one hit, one walk and no runs. He also switched positions three times, moving from shortstop to third base to pitcher, then back to third.

• Another position player, Joe Mather(notes), relieved Lopez on the mound in the 19th … and he looked like a non-pitcher. Mather took the loss after giving up two hits, two runs, three walks (two intentional) and hitting a batter.

One additional note before you share your favorite Mets-Cards memory in comments: Saturday’s 20-inning chess checkers got-your-nose match was not the longest game that’s been played between these two teams. On September 11, 1974, the Cardinals beat the Mets 4-3 in a contest that lasted 25 innings. Three players went 4-for-10 that day (Bake McBride, Ken Reitz, Feliz Millan). Claude Osteen pitched 9.1 scoreless innings in relief for St. Louis. Sonny Siebert was your winner, Hank Webb the loser. 

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Photos via AP Images 

Brandon Marshall(notes) caught 101 passes for 1120 yards and 10 touchdowns for the Denver Broncos last season. During the 15 games in which he played — you’ll recall that he was deactivated for disciplinary reasons in Week 17 — every other Denver wide receiver totaled 95 receptions, 1170 yards and five TDs.

So yeah, it would be fair to say that Marshall was a non-trivial part of the passing attack.

Now that he’s been dealt to the Miami Dolphins for a pair of second round picks, these are the names atop the depth chart at receiver for Denver: Eddie Royal(notes), Jabar Gaffney(notes) and Brandon Stokley(notes). The first member of that group was one of the biggest fantasy busts of 2009, the second is an eight-year vet who’s never caught more than 55 passes in any season, and the third is … well, it’s Stokley. His upside is 40-450-4. It can be argued that in recent years, Stokley’s primary role with the Broncos was to stop Marshall from committing premeditated penalties.

Simply put, there’s no obvious reason to be excited about the Denver offense in 2010. With Marshall in ’09, the team ranked 20th in the NFL in scoring. Without him, the Broncos are left with a thoroughly unimpressive receiving corps and an equally unimpressive quarterback duo (Kyle Orton(notes), Brady Quinn(notes)). The absence of a credible passing game is never good news for a backfield, either.

The Broncos may of course choose to address wide receiver with one of their early draft picks — they have the No. 11 overall selection (from Chicago), No. 43 (from Miami) and No. 45 — but it’s not as if they don’t have other areas of extreme need. Alabama linebacker Rolando McClain makes sense at No. 11 (and he’s fantastic), and the Denver Post’s Mike Klis makes a compelling case for Florida center Maurkice Pouncey. It would be a bit surprising to see the Broncos target receiver Dez Bryant after ostensibly shedding Marshall over chemistry/character/signability concerns. Perhaps the Broncos hope to snag a next-tier wideout like Golden Tate or Arrelious Benn with a second round pick.

But no matter how they address the position, they’ll lack a receiver with Marshall’s resume. He’s delivered three straight 100-catch, 1100-yard seasons, and he transitioned remarkably well from the Cutler/Shanahan Era to the Orton/McDaniels Era.

In a nutshell, this deal punishes the Broncos from a fantasy perspective. They had exactly one skill position player who scared opposing defenses and now he’s gone. If any member of the current roster can benefit from Marshall’s absence, it’s Royal. Because he can’t sink any lower. He had 91 receptions as a rookie, but was targeted just 79 total times in 2009.

The fantasy impact of this deal for Miami is much easier to spin: Everyone wins. Even Ted Ginn Jr.(notes) wins, since he was just traded to the San Francisco 49ers. (The Dolphins received a fifth round pick as compensation for a player they once drafted ninth overall. Yikes). Miami suddenly has a multi-dimensional offense with an outstanding O-line, and Chad Henne’s(notes) strong arm can be put to serious better use.

The National Football Post’s Matt Bowen(notes) asked the essential question on Thursday: "How do you scheme against an offense that can run the football and now can use Marshall to draw safety attention on every down?"

On paper, the Dolphins are just a brutal match-up for any defense that doesn’t employ Darrelle Revis(notes) — and they’re no layup for the Jets, either. Marshall’s presence figures to benefit the Miami running attack in no small way, and it vaults Henne into the fantasy discussion in basically all formats. He’s a bench/bye-week option in smaller leagues, and a clear starter in 16-team configurations. The rest of Miami’s receiving corps — Davone Bess(notes), Greg Camarillo(notes), Brian Hartline(notes) — may not necessarily receive a bump in value, but what were your draft plans for them anyway? They were final-round roster filler. They’ll now fight for Marshall’s scraps while facing defensive backs of lesser quality.

Understandably, Marshall is all smiles right now (see above. Or watch this video). He’s already demonstrated that he can shift successfully to a new system without losing any fantasy utility. This time, for a change, Marshall is making the transition without being at war with his head coach and the subject of endless rumors. Don’t bet against him having another brilliant year. If you’re projecting an 85-1100-8 fantasy line, I’ll take the over. 

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Photo via AP Images

Yesterday, I added Colby Lewis(notes) in two fantasy leagues, anticipating a useful upcoming Thursday start against Cleveland. And in fact it was a useful start … but it happened on Wednesday, not Thursday. Lewis was bumped up a day in the Rangers’ rotation because CJ Wilson(notes) was suffering from food poisoning.

So now I’ve got Lewis on two rosters, and he just picked up his second win. He struck out 10 hitters over 5.1 innings, allowing just three hits on a day he didn’t even expect to pitch. His ERA is now 2.19 and his WHIP is 1.30. You can’t drop a guy like that, right?

No, of course you can’t.

Lewis, as many of you know, spent the 2008 and 2009 seasons pitching in Japan. While a member of the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, he put up these numbers:

2008, age 28 – 178.0 IP, 12 HR, 27 BB, 183 K, 2.68 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
2009, age 29 – 176.1 IP, 13 HR, 19 BB, 186 K, 2.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

If he’d compiled those stats without ever having pitched in the U.S., major league teams would have lined up to offer him adsurd piles of money. His K-rate in Japan was higher than Yu Darvish’s and his walk-rate was significantly lower. (Darvish is seven years younger than Lewis, of course, and he posted better ERAs and WHIPs in ’08 and ’09. But he’s not today’s subject). The problem is that Lewis had pitched in the U.S. — and he was shelled.

From 2002 to 2007, Lewis posted a 6.71 ERA over 217.1 major league innings, walking 124 batters. And then he went to Japan, and was almost immediately fantastic. But it’s not as if he was exactly the same pitcher that he’d been before. Lewis altered his delivery, added a cutter, and began pounding the strike zone. The new combination impressed the Rangers, his original team.

This via Tim Kurkjian:

"There is a significant difference in [Lewis’] delivery and arm angle — he’s more compact, he has more of a classic motion, his arm is pointed toward the plate more consistently," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels said. "The quality of competition in Japan is not the same as it is in the big leagues, but strike-throwing is something that translates no matter what level. That walk/strikeout ratio wouldn’t have meant as much if he was only throwing 86 [mph]. But he was throwing 90-to-95 with a hard cutter."

Check the video of Lewis’ 10-K effort against Cleveland. The velocity is there, as is an unholy breaking pitch. Not surprisingly, he’s one of today’s most heavily added pitchers (over 4,800 pick-ups as of 6:00 pm CT). Lewis’ next start will be at Boston, and I’m not quite confident enough to activate him for that one. But after the Red Sox series, the Rangers’ schedule gets friendly. Here are their next 11 opponents: vs. DET, vs. CWS, at SEA, at OAK, vs. KC, vs. OAK, at TOR, vs. LAA, vs. BAL, vs. CHC, at KC. 

So, again, there’s no way you can launch Lewis now, not with that short-term setup. He’s still only nine percent owned despite today’s flurry of adds. If you’re speculating, try the Carp.

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Photo via AP Images

When Kevin Gregg(notes) earned the save on Tuesday night, it was fairly clear that he — not Jason Frasor(notes) — had emerged as Plan A in the ninth inning for Toronto. Cito Gaston made it official on Wednesday. MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets the following:

Cito: Kevin Gregg is the new primary closer for the Blue Jays. Jason Frasor slides back into setup role.

Gregg is pitching well at the moment (4.1 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 6 K), which isn’t unusual for him in April. Historically, this has been Gregg’s best month: 84.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 85 K. Toronto’s schedule is relatively friendly over the next six weeks, at least by A.L. East standards, so this thing could work for a little while. Enjoy it while you can. Ideally, you’re only adding Gregg as a trade chip. 

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Photo via AP Images

Mike Gonzalez, Baltimore’s theoretical closer, has been placed on the disabled list with a strained left shoulder. The move is retroactive to April 10. Gonzalez was off to a miserable start (0-2, 18.00 ERA) and his velocity was down, so it’s not really a surprise to see him headed to the DL.

Jim Johnson(notes) is currently Gonzalez’s understudy, so he’s the first guy to target if you’re chasing saves. No one in the Baltimore bullpen has covered themselves in glory this year, however. Johnson has allowed runs in two of his four appearances, as has Cla Meredith(notes).

Kam Mickolio(notes) is expected to be called up to take Gonzalez’s roster spot, and you’ll want to keep him on the radar. (Not that you’d need radar to track him. He’s huge: 6-9, 255). Mickolio is considered a possible closer in waiting, but strike-throwing has been an issue. In three innings at Triple-A so far this season, he’s walked four batters, allowed four hits and struck out five. Mickolio arrived in Baltimore in the Erik Bedard(notes) deal, just like every other interesting young Oriole.

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