Author: Andy Behrens

  • Brian Fuentes hits DL; Fernando (Rodney) mania returns to LA

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-699701946-1271261046.jpg?ym2t3.CDOVsJZPOY

    Los Angeles Angels closer Brian Fuentes(notes) has been placed on the 15-day disabled list due to back stiffness. Details here via the Orange County Register:

    Fuentes hadn’t pitched since Opening Night and hadn’t even played catch for a few days after feeling the stiffness in his side/back while working out last week — not that he had missed out on a lot of save
    opportunities.

    Because he hasn’t pitched since April 5, the move is retroactive and
    Fuentes will be eligible to come off the DL next Wednesday.

    Fernando Rodney(notes) steps into the closer role in the interim.

    Rodney shut the door 37 times for Detroit last season, and he recorded only one blown save, despite the ugly ratios (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). He’s 25 percent-owned in Yahoo! leagues at the moment. Rodney is a sketchy option, sure, but he’s a closer again, at least for one week. Do what must be done. He’s followed in the Angels’ bullpen hierarchy by Kevin Jepsen(notes) and Scot Shields(notes).

    Photo via US Presswire 

  • Closing Time: Romero dominates White Sox, gets Pierzynski’d late

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-540843063-1271211408.jpg?ymRmr.CD3pOgaVcA

    Entering Tuesday night’s game at Toronto, White Sox hitters had struck out only 30 times all season, the lowest team total in the majors.

    Exiting Tuesday’s game, they’ve struck out 44 times. Blue Jays left-hander Ricky Romero(notes) absolutely owned them.

    Romero carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning, racking up a pair of Ks in each of his first six frames. No White Sox batter managed to hit a ball out of the infield until the seventh. Romero’s curve was untouchable, as was his change. The full arsenal was working. Chicago’s lineup was plainly overmatched — a fact that led AJ Pierzynski(notes) to pursue non-traditional methods of getting on base.

    Romero skipped a pitch in the dirt to Pierzynski leading off the eighth inning — not a bad pitch, mind you, because AJ had been hacking at similar offerings all night. But late in the game with his team trailing 4-0, Pierzynski resisted the urge to swing. When the ball hit the ground near his feet, he began hopping as if an anvil had landed on his toe. But in fact, nothing had landed on his toe. Replays were clear. He had not been hit.

    Nonetheless, Pierzynski turned and ran toward first base. Home plate umpire Tim McClelland failed to stop him. It’s not the first time AJ has deked an ump, and it likely won’t be the last. The Jays argued and McClelland’s crew huddled, but no one overruled the original call — which, again, appeared to have been made by Pierzynski. Thus the Sox had their third base-runner of the game.

    Romero found himself pitching from the stretch, and he soon fell behind Alex Rios(notes), 2-1. That’s when he made his only real mistake of the night. Romero put a changeup on a tee and Rios deposited the pitch over the left field wall, ending the no-hit bid. The next three Chicago batters were retired on groundouts, then Romero yielded to Kevin Gregg(notes) in the ninth.

    This was his final line: 8.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP*. After two starts, Romero’s ERA is 1.80, his WHIP is 0.67 and his Yahoo! percent-ownership is 38.0. Go get him.

    Gregg pitched a clean inning to earn his third save, and he struck out both Gordon Beckham(notes) and Carlos Quentin(notes) in the process. He hasn’t yet walked a batter this season, and he’s decisively outperformed Jason Frasor(notes). If you’re any kind of saves speculator, then you probably added Gregg last week. 

    And with that, we bullet…

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-434822189-1271211367.jpg?ymolr.CDowFo0ET5 Scott Podsednik(notes) has minimal power, ordinary on-base skills, and he isn’t much of an asset defensively. Nobody ever said he was a flawless player. But he’s also swiped 30 bases in five different seasons (including ’09), and he’s leading the majors in steals right now. In the imaginary game, this makes him a person of interest.

    Podsednik stole another base on Tuesday afternoon and went 2-for-4, raising his average to .452. It was his third straight multi-hit effort. He’s batting near the top of the Royals’ lineup, immediately ahead of Billy Butler(notes), master of the RBI double. For fantasy purposes, Podsednik’s setup is excel—

    Well, OK, maybe it’s not excellent, but it’s as good as any Kansas City player’s setup can possibly be. And still he’s only owned in 33 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Of course his batting average isn’t sustainable, because this isn’t 1874. Podsednik won’t maintain the 120-steal pace, either, because this isn’t 1982. Just accept the production while it lasts. No one should be surprised if he swipes another 35 bags. He can almost be the guy that Julio Borbon(notes) was supposed to be.

    Baltimore shuffled the lineup on Tuesday, batting Matt Wieters(notes) in the cleanup spot for the first time in his soon-to-be glorious major league career. Ty Wigginton(notes) got the start at second and homered twice. The O’s wasted a solid start from Brian Matusz(notes) (7.1 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K) when the bullpen allowed a parade of hits in the eighth. No one really knows who Baltimore’s closer is on any given day, not even manager Dave Trembley. He’d like it to be Mike Gonzalez, but that wasn’t going to happen on Tuesday.

    Here’s Vin Scully in the ninth inning with Mark Reynolds(notes) digging in:

    "Reynolds had a Reynolds day. He struck out in the second, struck out in the fourth, and unloaded in the seventh."

    Naturally, Reynolds then struck out again. But Jonathan Broxton(notes) was pitching in the shadows and hitting 99 mph on the stadium radar, so the circumstances were unusually difficult. Clayton Kershaw(notes) earned the win for L.A., but he walked another five batters and needed 111 pitches to get through 5.1 innings.

    Nick Johnson(notes) hit his first homer of the season on Tuesday, going 2-for-3 in the Yankees’ home opener. He also walked twice and scored three runs. We’ll remind you that Johnson is batting second in one of baseball’s best lineups, and his home games are played in the league’s most hitter-friendly park. He’s just 19 percent-owned.

    While we’re discussing Yankees, we should also mention that Andy Pettitte(notes) frequently made Angels hitters look ridiculous on Tuesday. He struck out six and earned his second win in as many starts. New York’s schedule isn’t particularly intimidating in the weeks ahead, so there should be a few spot start opportunities.

    Florida outfielder Cody Ross(notes) is lightly owned, yet routinely useful. He went 2-for-4 against Cincinnati with a homer and four RBIs. You’ll add him eventually. Everyone does.

    With Carlos Gonzalez(notes) sidelined due to hamstring issues, Seth Smith(notes) found himself atop the Rockies’ batting order. He led an 11-run assault on the Mets, going 2-for-5 with a double, homer and three RBIs. Brad Hawpe(notes) left the game due to tightness in his left quad, so the Smith/Fowler situation may not be a worry for a few days.

    Comments are a better place whenever we mention Doug Fister(notes), so here it is: Fister pitched eight shutout innings against the A’s, striking out four. There’s still no need to add him, though. Tuesday’s win was a quality-of-opponent thing.

    No handshake for you: Octavio Dotel(notes) eventually picked up a save against the Giants, but he began the ninth by allowing a double to Nate Schierholtz(notes) and a two-run homer to Eugenio Velez(notes). The final out was recorded on a missile off the bat of Pablo Sandoval(notes). Details here

    Everybody hurts: Cliff Lee(notes) threw a 63-pitch bullpen session on Tuesday, and a simulated game is scheduled for Friday. The Seattle Times reports that "the plan is to have him back May 1 or May 2." … Early signs point to Jimmy Rollins(notes) (calf) hitting the 15-day DL on Wednesday. Be prepared for a multi-week absence. … Not surprisingly, Carlos Beltran(notes) still hasn’t been cleared to run. … Ted Lilly(notes) will make a 60-pitch rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday. "We’ll see how he comes out of that," said Lou Piniella, "and see if he needs another one.”

    Bonus link: You’ll find a thorough review of Jake Peavy’s(notes) messy Monday outing right here at Pale Hose Pariah. The essential quote: "You just don’t want to see Peavy dipping in the high eighties too often.
    His fastest pitch was 92.5 MPH, and he sat at 89.9."

    Photos via AP Images (Romero) and US Presswire (Podsednik)

  • Exactly how many innings will Strasburg pitch?

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-900040231-1271173377.jpg?ymBUi.CDTrkH9gFB

    On Sunday afternoon, while Stephen Strasburg(notes) was earning a win in his pro debut, MLB Network’s Peter Gammons tweeted the following:

    When Mike Rizzo and Scott Boras finished the Strasburg deal in August, they agreed he’d be limited to around 100 IP in 2010

    If accurate, this report means that Strasburg will actually pitch fewer innings this year than he did at San Diego State last season (109.0). It also means that his immediate fantasy ceiling is essentially the same as that of a quality middle reliever. You’d be lucky to get a stat line from Strasburg in 2010 that looks like Tyler Clippard’s(notes) 2009. 

    But MASN’s Ben Goessling later spoke with Doug Harris, Washington’s director of player development, and he received a very different workload forecast:

    Asked about a Sunday report that the Nationals had agreed with Scott Boras, Strasburg’s agent, to only use the right-hander for 100 innings this year, Harris said, "I’m not sure that holds water. We’re looking for an incremental increase on what he’s done in the past." … Harris said he envisions Strasburg throwing between 150 and 160 innings this season, though "there are variables that come into that."

    If you drafted and stashed the 21-year-old Strasburg, then you’re clearly hoping the details Rizzo/Boras agreement — if any agreement exists — are incorrect. Harris’ projection is much friendlier for fantasy purposes, as it likely means that 90 to 110 of Strasburg’s innings would be pitched in the majors.

    We know that Strasburg has some sort of workload cap, and he’ll burn another five frames at Double-A on Friday, then five more next Wednesday. I’ll set the over/under for his total usage at 139.2 IP, with an early-September shutdown. (I’ll also set the over/under for total Strasburg blog posts at 139). Please pick a side in comments…


    Photo via US Presswire

  • Chipper Jones injures his back while testing his other injury

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-258046359-1271100284.jpg?ym8dQ.CDQPOM9aVp

    On rare occasions, a player and an injury are perfectly paired. This is one of those times:

    Chipper Jones’(notes) side is still sore, and now so is his back. The Braves third baseman has missed three games with a strained right oblique muscle, and when he tested it with some swings in the batting cage Sunday, his back tightened.

    […]

    "I took some swings lefty and couldn’t really extend on anything," Jones said. "Then I turned around right-handed and took about 10 swings and my back locked up."

    Everyone else can just stop getting hurt right now, because Chipper has mastered the art. You really can’t do it any better. This latest injury could be his masterwork.

    It’s your move, Nick Johnson(notes). Whaddya got?

    More injury notes, just so jeepers creepers has something to read: Brian Roberts(notes) has been placed on the 15-day DL with an abdominal strain. Julio Lugo(notes) is the placeholder for the Orioles, but fantasy owners can obviously do better. … Colorado’s Carlos Gonzalez(notes) is officially day-to-day after leaving Sunday’s game due to hamstring tightness. He reportedly isn’t sure whether he can play in Tuesday’s game against the Mets, but this doesn’t yet sound like a long-term problem. … Ian Kinsler(notes) "did baseball activities in cleats" on Sunday, but he could only run at half-speed. The ankle remains an issue. Texas manager Ron Washington has suggested that he’d like Kinsler to get 20 rehab at-bats before the second baseman rejoins the Rangers. … According to various unnamed friends, David Ortiz’s(notes) wrist might not be entirely OK. His reaction: "Don’t pay attention to that crap." Papi is just 2-for-18 thus far. … Grady Sizemore(notes) will miss Cleveland’s home opener due to "mid-back tightness," but he’s "feeling much better than [Sunday]," according to his manager. … Terry Francona suggested that Jacoby Ellsbury(notes) (ribs) will need a couple days off, but the outfielder managed to avoid serious injury in this collision. … And just in case you didn’t hit the link to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution above: Chipper is expected to return to the Braves’ lineup on Wednesday, following his magnificent double injury.

    Photo via US Presswire

  • Closing Thoughts: Turmoil in the saves market!

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-640170973-1271084197.jpg?ymliM.CDv7UlnKSB

    We’re rolling out Closing Thoughts a day early, because the weekend was incredibly messy. There’s panic in the saves market right now. All the major indices are down.

    In fact, when Chris Perez(notes) issued his third walk on Sunday it nearly triggered the Borowski Rule, which would have resulted in an automatic one-hour suspension of all add/drops. The trading floor is like a war zone.

    "Blue Horseshoe loves Jim Johnson(notes)! Buy! BUY! … Wait, no. He had that elbow thing. Sell! SELL! … No, not SNELL you [expletive]! SELL! S-E-L-L. SELL!"

    It’s madness. Below you’ll find an updated snapshot of every team’s bullpen situation, followed by the usual collection of player notes. Please try to remain calm during this period of upheaval. There are always buying opportunities.  

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-461208434-1271084207.jpg?ymviM.CDQO6nLo6u

    Trevor Hoffman(notes), baseball’s all-time saves leader, did not have an easy series against St. Louis. He blew saves on Friday and Sunday, allowing five earned runs and three homers in the process. "It’s embarrassing," he later said. Albert Pujols(notes) and Matt Holliday(notes) went deep in consecutive at-bats against Hoffman on Sunday, so that was clearly a degree-of-difficulty save situation. He still lucked into the win, too, so his owners got something for their pain. There are no job security issues with Hoffman, of course. When they install a countdown banner in your home park, you’re safe. The Brewers would almost certainly send Hoffman to the DL with a make-believe injury before turning over the ninth to LaTroy Hawkins(notes). Milwaukee gets the Cubs and Nats this week, so the immediate setup is favorable.

    Baltimore’s Mike Gonzalez has allowed five hits, four walks and four earned runs in two innings of work so far this season. Manager Dave Trembley basically gave Gonzalez a timeout on Sunday. Jim Johnson is next in line to close for the O’s, but — as Scott Pianowski pointed out on Friday — Gonzalez has a two-year, $12 million deal, so he won’t simply be kicked to the curb. Koji Uehara(notes) (hamstring) could be a dark horse saves candidate here when he returns from the DL. Gigantic minor leaguer Kam Mickolio(notes) (6-foot-9) is an option, too. The Baltimore Sun wants readers to select the next O’s closer, which doesn’t really seem like the worst idea.

    If you caught either Sunday’s Closing Time or Saturday’s Weekly Rundown, then you already know about the Frank Francisco(notes) implosion. He’s off to a brutal early start — 2.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB — and has been relieved of closing duties, at least temporarily. Flame-throwing Neftali Feliz(notes) is the interim closer. Rangers manager Ron Washington has expressed confidence in Francisco publicly, but I really think Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News has it right when he frames the situation this way: "In reality, though, the job is likely lost until Feliz proves he can’t do it." Francisco’s velocity has been in the 90-92 range, a few ticks below where he was in 2009.

    Kevin Gregg(notes) picked up a pair of saves at Baltimore on Friday and Sunday, while Jason Frasor(notes) closed out wins on Thursday and Saturday. When you have save situations in every game, this sort of thing happens. Frasor hasn’t lost his job; there’s just a lot of closing work to go around in Toronto right now. 

    We mentioned Chris Perez’s multi-walk performance above, so we should probably discuss the details down here. He was a mess on Sunday when asked to record a four-out save. Perez walked three batters, allowed three hits, and only found the strike zone on just 17 of his 37 pitches. His wild pitch allowed the winning run to score. (Although in fairness to Perez, Lou Marson(notes) has to block that ball. Video here). No one’s threatening Perez at the moment, but Kerry Wood(notes) is playing catch, and a mound session isn’t far off. 

    Huston Street(notes) has been performing "strengthening exercises" (great euphemism), and should begin a throwing program later this week. Franklin Morales(notes) has saved two games in Street’s absence thus far, though he hasn’t managed to strike anyone out yet.

    Brad Lidge(notes) (knee, elbow) made a rehab appearance at Single-A Clearwater on Saturday, and he was rocked. He allowed three doubles and a walk in two-thirds of an inning, striking out no one. His fastball velocity was reportedly 89-91 mph. Lidge is scheduled to pitch again on Monday. 

    Here’s a name to file away: Sergio Santos(notes). He’s a converted infielder with an absolute cannon (95-98 mph). On Friday, Santos entered a tight game for the White Sox with the bases loaded and two outs, and he K’d Delmon Young(notes) on a rather nasty slider. "This kid has no fear," said Ozzie Guillen. 

    Photo via Getty Images

  • Strasburg earns W in first minor league start, Ks eight

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-598240623-1271040746.jpg?ymq7B.CD8JTU3Wcq

    When you write about Washington prospect Stephen Strasburg(notes), you’re supposed to focus on his triple-digit fastball. But check out the highlights from his pro debut and tell me you’re not impressed with the curve, too.

    On Sunday, making his first start for Harrisburg, Strasburg demonstrated yet again why he’s the most thoroughly hyped young pitcher in baseball. He picked up a five-inning win against Altoona, Double-A affiliate of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Strasburg struck out eight batters in front of an overflow crowd of 7,877 (which probably thinned a bit after he was finished), allowing four hits, two walks, one earned run and three unearned runs.

    He was not necessarily at his best, although he still reached 100 mph and his fastball was routinely clocked at 97-98 mph. Strasburg was shaky in the first inning, as he gave up a double, single and walk to Altoona’s 3-4-5 hitters. He quickly settled down, however, and retired the next eight batters, five of them on Ks. Again, just to be clear: the curve was vicious. Strasburg failed to pitch around a pair of errors in the fourth, resulting in the unearned runs.

    Still, it was a promising turn for the 21-year-old, just as everyone expected. The in-stadium media presence was unlike anything the locals are likely to see again. Details here via the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

    [Altoona] received nearly 60 media credential requests from 30 different
    outlets, and Strasburg’s photo graced the specially-made media passes
    even though he’s an opposing player. Two auxiliary press boxes were set
    up, and reporters were advised to have their laptop computers fully
    charged upon arrival due to a potential shortage of electrical outlets. ESPN News cut to broadcast each half-inning that Strasburg was pitching,
    which is believed to be the first-ever live national airing of a
    sporting event in Altoona.

    You really have to love the "shortage of electrical outlets." Because of course a Pirates farm club would be too cheap to provide power strips.

    Harrisburg catcher Jhonatan Solano called Strasburg "unbelievable," adding that he thinks "in a couple (more starts), he goes to the big leagues." But Yahoo!’s Jeff Passan offered a more reasonable timetable earlier in the day, one that accounts for the fact that baseball economics are insane.

    If Strasburg makes his Nats debut in the June 4-6 series against the Reds and opposes Aroldis Chapman(notes), then we’re declaring a holiday. (Not an official holiday where you don’t have to go to work, but more like one of those situations where a carpet store has a really special sale). That game would demand a liveblog, with pre-blog festivities. Please stay tuned for additional details. 

    Photo via AP Images

  • Aroldis Chapman dazzles in Triple-A debut, denies himself win

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-448355020-1271025381.jpg?ymlL.9CD1OCEOfTg

    Aroldis Chapman(notes) made his Triple-A debut for the Louisville Bats on Sunday, and he didn’t disappoint. Or rather, his arsenal of pitches didn’t disappoint. Chapman’s fielding was another story. But let’s begin with the more impressive details…

    In 4.2 innings of work, Chapman struck out nine batters, allowing just five hits (all singles), one run (unearned), and one walk (the next-to-last hitter he faced). He hit 101 mph on the radar gun in the first inning and 100 mph in the second. The left-hander threw 85 pitches, 55 of which were strikes. The sliders he threw on Sunday should not be legal. You’ll find the full box score right here

    Chapman exited the game with two outs in the fifth, leading the Toledo Mud Hens 2-1, only one out away from qualifying for a win. And that brings us to his day’s one unimpressive detail…

    With the bases loaded (on an error, an infield single and a walk) Chapman induced a harmless grounder to first baseman Daniel Dorn. That would have ended the inning, were it not for the fact that Chapman neglected to cover first base. Thus the Mud Hens had their fourth infield hit of the game and their first run. It was an absentminded moment in an otherwise stellar day. Chapman was relieved by Enerio Del Rosario, who finally extracted the Bats from the bases-packed jam.

    On balance, Chapman’s debut was excellent. His defensive gaffe is obviously not the sort of thing that should ever happen to a pitcher with a $30 million contract (or a contract of any size). Those mistakes can’t follow him to the majors, whenever he arrives. If he can bring Sunday’s stuff with him to every start, we’ll see him in Cincinnati soon.

    Photo via Getty Images

  • Carlos Santana celebrates birthday with pair of homers

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-787405017-1270825465.jpg?ym5XN9CDGNT52jVn

    As we discussed in last month’s position primer, there’s not exactly a shortage of elite young prospects at catcher right now. Three of Baseball America’s top 10 minor leaguers are catchers, and so is the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2010 MLB Draft.

    For near-term fantasy purposes, Cleveland’s Carlos Santana(notes) could very well be the most interesting backstop who hasn’t yet arrived in the big leagues. The switch-hitter made his Triple-A debut with the Columbus Clippers on Thursday, and it went better than anyone could have reasonably expected. Santana was 4-for-5 with two homers, one double and four RBIs. His team absolutely destroyed Indianapolis, 17-4. And it happened to be Santana’s 24th birthday. 

    So that’s a pretty good day. If you’ll check the box score from Thursday’s massacre, you’ll notice that Columbus’ opening day lineup also featured Russell Branyan(notes) (3-for-3, double, RBI) and a collection of names that have haunted AL/NL-only rosters in recent seasons (Crowe, Duncan, Buscher, Bixler, Carrasco). If you’re involved in an International League fantasy setup, let’s hope you drafted a Clipper-heavy roster. (Also worth noting: Pedro Alvarez(notes), the No. 2 overall pick in the 2008 draft, homered for Indy. He’s a good bet to finish the season in Pittsburgh). 

    As for Santana, it would hardly be a surprise to see him make the jump to the majors relatively soon, prior to the All-Star break. He isn’t blocked by anyone too intimidating; Lou Marson(notes) and Mike Redmond(notes) are a combined 0-for-11 for Cleveland thus far. Santana needs to simply continue hitting as he always has — 44 total homers over two seasons, .431 OBP in ’08, .413 in ’09 — while demonstrating that he’s recovered from off-season hand surgery. He’s of course already owned in competitive dynasty leagues and AL-only formats. When he arrives in Cleveland, he’ll be a recommended mixed league add, too. 

    Photo via AP Images

  • Jose Reyes expected to return to Mets lineup on Saturday

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-402485021-1270741255.jpg?ymH048CDVAUi08d7

    Jose Reyes hasn’t appeared in a regular season game since May 20, 2009, but he’s eligible to return from the disabled list on Saturday, and it sounds like he’ll rejoin the Mets immediately.

    "Barring any setbacks," added manager Jerry Manuel, as if you needed to hear it. Reyes is basically a walking setback. He’s spent the past week in extended spring training, doing all the things you drafted him to do: getting on base, stealing, scoring runs. His hamstrings are currently functional and his thyroid levels have returned to normal. Prepare to finally drag him off your fantasy roster’s DL. New York will face John Lannan(notes) on Saturday and Livan Hernandez(notes) on
    Sunday, so you can reasonably expect Reyes to make a weekend fantasy contribution. 

    Earlier this spring, Manuel had been toying with the idea of sliding Reyes down to the No. 3 spot in the batting order, but those plans changed when the shortstop was shelved in early March. When Reyes returns — if he returns, barring setbacks, etc. — you can expect to see his name at the top of the Mets lineup card.

    Let’s hear your guess for Reyes’ total number of 2010 at-bats in comments. I’ll get the bidding started at 591, but I’m bullish (and heavily invested). The closest guesser wins Alex Cora(notes) — not a replica, but the actual Cora.

    Photo via Getty Images 

  • Closing Time: Kelly Johnson states his case, homers twice

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-111767548-1270708125.jpg?ymduw8CDpEG50BBzMr. Pianowski is unavailable to close tonight because he’s still having visa problems. I’ll be your guide through a full Wednesday schedule. As always, you should just assume that Garrett Jones(notes) homered unless we tell you otherwise. Let’s bullet…

    Arizona second baseman Kelly Johnson(notes) entered the day as a small-sample disappointment, having gone 0-for-7 in his first two games of the season. He finished the day as a .300 hitter. Johnson went 3-for-3 against the Padres on Wednesday with two home runs and three RBIs. He’s available basically everywhere (five percent-owned), he’ll hit in a friendly home park (Chase Field), and the 28-year-old already has a pair of useful seasons on the resume (2007 and ’08). He was buried in the Yahoo! pre-season ranks, but Johnson clearly needs to be more heavily owned than the auto-pick all-stars at his position (Izturis, Sanchez, Uribe, et al).

    Is it too soon to have the Triple Crown discussion regarding Vernon Wells(notes)? Perhaps it is. But for the record, Wells is currently hitting .714 with three homers and six RBIs. Asked if he can maintain the pace, he offered a perfect anti-Papi spin: "The great thing is there’s only 160 more [games] left."

    Ryan Franklin(notes) looked a lot like the pre-2009 version of himself while earning a save against the Reds. He recorded no strikeouts and gave up plenty of hard contact, retiring the last two batters he faced on liners. But a save is a save in our game. There are no style points.

    Jason Frasor(notes) was mass-dropped after blowing a save on opening day, but he had another opportunity in the ninth on Wednesday and he successfully converted. Frasor worked around a lead-off double by Chris Davis(notes), striking out two.  

    In his Texas debut, Rich Harden(notes) delivered the usual 90-pitch no-decision. He went 3.2 innings, allowing one hit, three runs (one earned) and five walks while striking out eight. Expect more stat lines just like that.  

    On Monday, Jason Heyward’s(notes) first swing against Carlos Zambrano(notes) resulted in a three-run homer. On Wednesday, his first swing against Ryan Dempster(notes) merely resulted in an RBI double, so the Cubs are clearly beginning to figure him out.

    Aside from the pitch that Heyward smoked to right field, Dempster was terrific. He struck out nine Braves and allowed just three hits over six frames. Sean Marshall(notes) was excellent in relief, too, but John Grabow(notes) was not. He gave up a late two-run homer to Chipper Jones(notes), and the Cubs couldn’t recover. They’d lucked into two runs earlier in the ball game, and that was all they could manage. Billy Wagner(notes) owned ’em in the ninth; he looked unhittable. That game-ending slider to Geovany Soto(notes) was unholy. 

    Mike Napoli(notes) sat in favor of Jeff Mathis(notes) in the Angels’ first two games, but he finally cracked the lineup on Wednesday — it was the bottom of the lineup (eighth), but he cracked it. He only went 1-for-4, but at least the one hit drove in a run and extended the ninth inning, albeit in a losing effort. Napoli’s power potential is obvious enough — he’s hit 40 homers over the prior two seasons in 609 at-bats — but defense is the issue.

    Here’s a nice snapshot of White Sox baseball in 2010…

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-478751564-1270688007.jpg?ymI0r8CDvZS3jJMb

    The concept is simple: Try to manufacture a run before Mark Kotsay(notes) can kill the inning. Konerko drove in all three runs for the Sox in their loss to the Tribe, and he also had one of his team’s two hits. Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona(notes) had an odd night. He allowed six walks and struck out only one batter, but also limited Chicago to one hit over six innings.

    Colorado’s junior varsity challenged the first-string Brewers today, as Clint Barmes(notes), Todd Helton(notes), Brad Hawpe(notes) and Chris Iannetta(notes) were all out of the lineup. Milwaukee managed to edge the Rockies, thanks to a bullpen that pitched five scoreless innings and recorded four holds (Hawkins, Villanueva, Stetter, Narveson), a save (Hoffman) and a win (Coffey). Corey Hart(notes) watched as Jim Edmonds(notes) went 2-for-4.

    Milton Bradley(notes) had his usual complicated night. The good: He homered in the first inning off Justin Duchscherer(notes) to give Seattle an early lead. The bad: He whiffed on Kurt Suzuki’s(notes) drive to the warning track in the ninth, allowing the A’s to win 6-5. That’s back-to-back walk-offs for Oakland. And yes, I’d still stream pitchers who get to face that lineup. (Related: This turkey called me a turkey).

    Carl Pavano(notes) held the Angels to six hits and one run over seven innings, striking out six. Pavano was a bit unlucky last season and he had an encouraging spring. Still, he’s a spot-starter for fantasy purposes; roto owners won’t like the K-rate. Don’t get too excited.

    Here’s an amusing thing that Hawk Harrelson accidentally said: "That’s the vulbuernability of [Luis] Valbuena."

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-920856459-1270687282.jpg?ymyor8CD0sSjECuK Please offer congratulations to Fernando Valenzuela in comments. (He’ll see it. He’s a huge fan of fantasy blogs). He’s about to be officially recognized as a Treasure of Los Angeles, as if that issue was ever in any doubt. Wish I could have owned him in the -mania years, not the San Diego years. Alas.

    Two uninteresting vets happened to have nice afternoons for the Giants: Aaron Rowand(notes) went 4-for-6 and Edgar Renteria(notes) went 5-for-5. Those two are batting first and second for San Francisco. What you choose to do with this information is your business. Tell no one.

    No handshake for you: Jose Valverde(notes) took the loss in Kansas City, giving up a game-tying 11th inning homer to Alberto Callaspo(notes), then an infield single to Billy Butler(notes) — REPEAT: BILLY BUTLER BEAT OUT AN INFIELD SINGLE — and then a game-ending double to Rick Ankiel(notes).Leo Nunez(notes) blew a save opportunity in New York via walk and balk, but he still backed into a win. Tim Wood(notes) ultimately earned a rogue save, one that you don’t need to react to. … Shockingly, the two-Ortiz approach (Russ and Ramon) doesn’t seem to be working for the Dodgers. 

    Everybody hurts: The Mariners are hoping that Cliff Lee(notes) (abdominal strain) will be able to pitch a simulated game on April 14. He reportedly threw a proof-of-concept bullpen session on Wednesday (eight pitches only), and he’ll throw again on Friday. He’s getting closer to pitching in game conditions, but he’ll likely need a rehab start or two before joining Seattle. Erik Bedard(notes) (labrum) also threw a bullpen on Wednesday, prompting manager Don Wakamatsu to say, "He feels great and may be ahead [of Lee] in a sense."Lance Berkman(notes) (knee) is targeting next week’s Monday-Thursday series at St. Louis for his return. He received a cortisone injection on Monday, and he’s had his giant knee drained of fluid five times this year. … Russell Branyan(notes) (herniated disc) will begin a minor league rehab assignment on Thursday, so his return may not be far off. He’ll likely bump Matt LaPorta(notes) to the outfield. … Jose Reyes engaged in more extended spring training work on Wednesday afternoon. He’s eligible to return from the DL on Saturday, and we’ve been given no reason to think that he won’t immediately displace Alex Cora(notes) as the Mets’ leadoff hitter. … Rangers manager Ron Washington says that "it’d be take a miracle" if Ian Kinsler(notes) could play during the team’s current home-stand. He’s no lock to play during the upcoming nine-game road trip either, according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. … Sammy Gervacio(notes) struck out nearly everyone he saw during spring training, and it appeared that he was going to be a sneaky-good RP option this year. Unfortunately, he’s now headed to the DL with a rotator cuff strain. Adding insult, Gervacio also took the loss for the Giants on Wednesday.

    "Francisco! That’s fun to say!": Please run a quick spell-check on Eugenio Velez’s(notes) jersey, pictured below. Whoops. It’s still very early in the season, though, and we’re all working on fundamentals.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-55187278-1270693071.jpg?ymPDt8CDf8aUzaXf

    Photos via AP Images

  • David Ortiz offers a little (bleeping) fantasy advice

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-432440272-1270653761.jpg?ymBdj8CDqqpXycwW

    No matter what your opinion is of David Ortiz(notes) as a fantasy commodity — or as a designated hitter, corporate pitchman, or motivational speaker — you need to accept the fact that his recent profanity-enhanced comments were completely reasonable.

    After Tuesday’s loss to the Yankees, Ortiz was asked about the slow start to his season … which happens to be only seven at-bats old. This was his response, via the Boston Herald:

    "(Bleep) happens. Then you guys talk (bleep)," Ortiz said. "Two (bleeping) games already. (Bleepers) are going crazy. What’s up with that, man? (Bleep). There’s (bleeping) 160 games left. Y’all (bleepers) go ahead and hit for me."

    In fantasy leagues right now, (bleepers) are also going crazy, and not just about Ortiz.

    Adam LaRoche(notes) was dropped 2,128 times in Yahoo! leagues on Tuesday, presumably because he’s 0-for-8. Erik Bedard(notes) was dropped 2,122 times, even though he’s DL-eligible. Carlos Zambrano(notes) was fired 1,895 times after his horrid opener. (OK, that drop probably felt good. But still, Carlos has useful days ahead. It’s not unusual for him to be a mess in the season debut). Julio Borbon(notes) was cut 1,679 times after going 0-for-4. Jason Frasor(notes) was canned by 1,614 of you after blowing a save. Stephen Strasburg(notes) was dropped 1,580 times, apparently because fantasy owners didn’t like the way he handled media day at Double-A Harrisburg.

    We often tell you to manage your fantasy teams aggressively, but we don’t endorse vengeful or reckless management. There are, as Ortiz mentioned, 160 games left. Baseball is a game in which it takes long stretches of time for a player’s true talent level to become apparent. One of the habits possessed by all losing fantasy owners is their tendency to infer too much from too little information. Don’t be that gamer. Please understand that (bleep) happens.

    Of course if it’s clear that you have a panicky owner in your league, then now would be the time to pick clean their roster. Those managers generally lose interest by mid-season when they’re no longer in the trophy hunt and football sign-ups open. 

    Photo via Getty Images

  • Please relax, Drew Stubbs owners. He’ll play

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-447290280-1270590992.jpg?ymQIU8CDOktYYaugDrew Stubbs(notes) managed to hit eight homers and steal 10 bases in just 42 games with Cincinnati last season, and he followed that performance with a solid spring (.300 AVG, 5 HR, 3 SB in 60 at-bats). He made nearly everyone’s sleeper list for 2010. We promised you 40-steal speed and a hint of power. Stubbs was going to hit leadoff, ahead of Joey Votto(notes) and Brandon Phillips(notes). The setup was excellent, we said.

    And you bought it.

    And then on opening day, Chris Dickerson(notes) was playing centerfield for the Reds and batting first. Stubbs had the little "x" next to his name on your team page, not the expected ^.

    The reason, his manager later explained, was simply that Dickerson had experienced a (very) small measure of success against Chris Carpenter(notes), the pitcher who opposed the Reds on Monday. This from the team’s Website:

    This does not mean it’s going to be a platoon situation in center field, according to Baker.

    "It’s mostly Carpenter," Baker said. "There are other matchups, too. Some pitchers get righties out better than lefties. Some get lefties out better than righties. Dickerson is the about the only one – him and Joey [Votto] – that hit Carpenter."

    Prior to opening day, Dickerson was 5-for-10 against Carpenter (all singles). "I’ve gotten lucky," Dickerson told MLB.com. "I haven’t hit him too hard." He is now 5-for-13 against Carpenter, so the luck may have run out.

    Anyway, the important takeaway here is that Stubbs may occasionally sit, but he’s not in a strict platoon. Dusty did you a favor on Monday, considering the opponent. Stubbs entered the game late and went 2-for-2 with a run scored and an RBI. Don’t panic. Everyone likes to make transactions, but please try to remain calm.

    Photo via AP Images

  • That’s your opening day lineup, Oakland? Seriously?

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-81722962-1270569804.jpg?ymM9O8CD4yaBervb

    OK, I thought it was pretty remarkable that the Mets allowed Alex Cora(notes) to bat leadoff in their opener on Monday. He’s a career .245 hitter with only modest speed. His lifetime on-base percentage is just .313.

    But then I saw the A’s opening day lineup, and realized that Oakland is fielding an entire team of Alex Coras this year. Check the box score:

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-965843768-1270569928.jpg?ymI_O8CD4c3Ui_CU

    That’s really a civic embarrassment. The 3-4-5 hitters in the A’s lineup have career OPSs of .727, .741 and .726. It should not surprise you to learn that Oakland had the American League’s lowest team slugging percentage last year (.397). They can’t seriously expect to score enough runs to be competitive in 2010, right?  

    As a bewildered Jack Cust(notes) said after he was designated for assignment over the weekend, "It’s messed up. … The fact is, this team has no power and they’ve just released a guy who (averaged 28 homers) the last three years. That’s amazing."

    It really is amazing. I cannot explain why the A’s have put themselves in this predicament, but I know a fantasy opportunity when I see one. Here are all the starting pitchers who are likely to face Oakland this week:

    Tuesday – Ian Snell(notes) (vs. Dallas Braden(notes))
    Wednesday – Ryan Rowland-Smith(notes) (vs. Justin Duchscherer(notes))
    Thursday – Doug Fister(notes) (vs. Brett Anderson(notes))
    Friday – Matt Palmer(notes) (vs. Gio Gonzalez(notes))
    Saturday – Jered Weaver(notes) (vs. Ben Sheets(notes))
    Sunday – Joe Saunders(notes) (vs. Dallas Braden)

    Most of them are available in standard mixed leagues. Stream as needed. 

    Photo via AP Images 

  • Closing Thoughts: Frasor opens with walk-off blown save

    If you have Jason Frasor(notes) in the first-closer-to-lose-his-job pool, then things are looking good.

    The right-hander entered the season with minimal job security, as manager Cito Gaston only recently – and almost reluctantly – awarded him the ninth. Frasor then took the loss in Toronto’s opener, allowing four hits, two earned runs and an intentional walk to the Rangers. He retired just one batter and gave up a bases-loaded, no-doubt game-ending hit to Jarrod Saltalamacchia(notes). Video here.

    Not an encouraging performance to say the least. Scott Downs(notes) worked a clean eighth inning before Frasor folded in the ninth. No one’s going to lose a job based on one-third of an inning on opening day against an excellent opposing lineup, but Frasor obviously did nothing to inspire confidence (or boost his trade value). He seems to have the right perspective on the loss, however. This from the Toronto Star:

    With the Jays off until Wednesday night, Frasor faces a tedious wait for his next opportunity.

    “Unfortunately, I have 48 hours to think about it,” said Frasor, who saved 11 games as the team’s part-time closer last year. “I’m six years older than I was when I first started blowing games, so it’s a little easier.”

    In the closing grid below, you’ll find the usual suspects lurking behind Frasor in the Jays’ bullpen. If Kevin Gregg(notes) is Plan B, then Plan A had better [expletive] work.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-674603685-1270558771.jpg?ymzQM8CDJvh7ZgPM

    (Important note: The "Interim/Threat" column has been simplified, because it was confusing several commenters – and it seemed to actually offend at least one Chris Perez(notes) owner. Broken players can now be found on the far right. The "Closer" column is reserved for anyone who would get a save chance today). 

    Brad Lidge’s(notes) fantasy trade value might be peaking right now, while he’s on the disabled list. As most of you know, he entered the spring with knee and elbow issues; somewhere along the line he picked up a second elbow problem. Last week, Lidge received a cortisone injection to treat this new concern. This from MLB.com:

    Lidge had surgery on the inner half of his elbow in November. The Phils
    said Lidge’s recent inflammation is on the outer half of the elbow, which they said is unrelated to the surgery. But cortisone injections are not routine, and Lidge’s health has been an issue for nearly a year.

    Lidge’s velocity has been dreadful this spring, at least by his standards. He could return by mid to late-April, but you can’t reasonably expect the 2008 version of Lidge. For now, Ryan Madson(notes) has the ninth in Philly.

    Huston Street(notes) visited Dr. James Andrews in Alabama on Monday, but according to the Rockies, he received relatively good news. Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd had this to say to the Denver Post:

    "Everything looked great. I was told they didn’t see any issues at all, so we are going to keep doing the same thing with him," O’Dowd said after the Rockies’ 5-3 opening day win over Milwaukee. "[Street] wanted a second opinion and everything came back really good."

    There’s no clear timetable here, but you shouldn’t expect Street to help anyone in April. Franklin Morales(notes) earned an opening day save, but it wasn’t exactly a work of art (1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 WP, 0 K). Two of the outs recorded by Morales were ropes that happened to be caught by infielders. Video here

    Jonathan Broxton’s(notes) velocity has been a small concern, as the Dodgers’ closer was working in the 91-95 mph range late in spring training. He of course normally sits in the 97-101 range. But he had this to say to Ken Gurnick:

    "You’ve got to build your arm strength," [Broxton] said. "The first month and a half, you build. I was talking to [Eric] Gagne about that this spring, getting by early with 90 percent. You can’t come out and be 100 percent in April, or by July and August you won’t have anything left in the tank. Peak too soon and you go down early. When the bats start speeding up, the arm gets quicker and the adrenaline kicks in." 

    No immediate reason to worry here. "Nothing is hurting or sore," added Broxton.

    If you’re a Dodgers fan, you should be more concerned about the fact that Vicente Padilla(notes), Ramon Ortiz(notes), Jeff Weaver(notes) and Russ Ortiz(notes) are somehow all members of your pitching staff, and it’s not 2002. 

    Houston middle reliever Sammy Gervacio(notes) had a dominant spring (13.0 IP, 5 H, 3 BB, 16 Ks), and he pitched another useful inning in the regular season opener. The righty struck out two of the three hitters he faced, throwing nine of 11 pitches for strikes. Even if he never sneaks into the closer discussion, he looks like a terrific RP option for roto owners in leagues with innings caps. In such formats, K/9 is the big concern; you can’t waste innings on pitchers with low K-rates.

    JJ Putz(notes) inspired some confidence on Monday, striking out two batters in an inning of work against Cleveland. But we should note that Mark Grudzielanek(notes) and Lou Marson(notes) provided the Ks, and Putz was still throwing with last year’s velocity (low-90s). 

    Photo via Getty Images

  • The Jason Heyward Era begins with a BOOM

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-796549335-1270506957.jpg?ymNn_7CDM66Wo1ce

    Jason Heyward(notes) wasted no time at all demonstrating why he’s the best hitting prospect in baseball. In his first major league at-bat, the 20-year-old hit a three-run bomb off Cubs’ starter Carlos Zambrano(notes) – and we definitely mean bomb. The ball landed deep in the Atlanta bullpen in right-center. You’ll find the video here.

    Zambrano fell behind Heyward 2-0, then threw him a sinker that didn’t sink nearly enough. When Heyward made contact, there was no doubt whatsoever about the result. The crowd’s reaction was of course fantastic. That’s Chipper Jones(notes) pictured above waiting to hug Heyward, looking like your grandma greeting you at the door.

    This has already been a spectacular opening day, featuring a no-hit bid from Shaun Marcum(notes), a two-homer game from Albert Pujols(notes), and a defensive gem of the highest quality from Mark Buehrle(notes). But Heyward’s blast was the goosebumps moment.

    If you left him on your fantasy bench today – and he was only started in 54 percent of Yahoo! leagues – then you’re free to complain in comments…

    Photo via AP Images

  • Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith in outfield job-share

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__26/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-992576569-1270470039.jpg?ymXm27CD_IdqXYXm

    Important programming note: Please join us today over at Big League Stew for Jeff Passan’s fifth annual Opening Day Blogapaloozathon. The chat will begin promptly at … well, whenever Jeff decides to launch it, which will presumably be shortly before the first pitch in the noon games. The chat ends when there’s nothing left to say. We welcome your comments, ridicule and observations.

    Dexter Fowler(notes) is going to be a high-maintenance fantasy option to begin the season. On opening day, with Colorado facing the right-handed Yovani Gallardo(notes), Fowler will sit in favor of Seth Smith(notes). He’s expected to start on Tuesday and Wednesday against left-handers Randy Wolf(notes) and Doug Davis(notes). Presumably he’ll also start against Padres lefty Clayton Richard(notes) on Friday, in the Rockies’ home opener.

    Fowler is a switch-hitter of course, but manager Jim Tracy likes him quite a bit better from the right side. This via MLB.com:

    "Dexter, left-handed, is still working some things out. I am planning that Dexter will play Tuesday."

    Fowler hit .321/.377/.482 in 137 at-bats against left-handers in 2009, but just .240/.357/.372 against righties. (Note that he gets himself on-base at an acceptable rate from either side).

    It’s important to realize that neither Fowler nor Smith were great options away from Coors Field last year. Nonetheless, for those of you in larger leagues where daily lineup maneuvering is allowed, a Fowler/Smith fantasy platoon wouldn’t be the worst play. Dexter stole 27 bases last season at age 23; Seth hit 15 homers in just 335 at-bats. Whoever plays on a given day will help Carlos Gonzalez(notes) set the table, ahead of Todd Helton(notes) and Troy Tulowitzki(notes). There are stats to be gained. 

    Photo via US Presswire

  • You’ll never believe this, but Nick Johnson hurt himself

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-319352154-1270247981.jpg?ymuYA7CDTZygEWz7Nick Johnson(notes), the most injury-prone creature in the history of life on Earth, is hurt again.

    He fouled a pitch off his right leg in the first inning of New York’s Grapefruit League finale, but was reportedly able to limp off the field under his own power. And then his leg shattered into a million-billion tiny pieces, because he’s Nick Johnson.

    The game recap on MLB.com tells us the following:

    "[Johnson] suffered a bruised knee and is day-to-day."

    Obviously Nick’s version of day-to-day is not the same as yours or mine. Let’s hope this is really just a bruise. If healthy, Johnson is setup for an excellent year. He’s an on-base machine who’s expected to bat second in baseball’s most homer-friendly park, in baseball’s highest-scoring lineup.

    Don’t be broken, Nick. Please.

    Some of us have made you a component of our end-of-draft gameplans … which was not necessarily the wisest move, but we did it. Shake it off, tough guy.

    Photo via AP Images

  • Committee of one? Rauch will officially close for Twins. For now

    Five days after announcing that his team would go bullpen-by-committee, Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire has amended his position. Jon Rauch(notes) will open the season as the Twins’ closer.

    This from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal III:

    Twins manager Ron Gardenhire just announced that Jon Rauch will be the closer when the regular season begins on Monday in Anaheim.

    He announced over the weekend that he would try a closer-by-committee approach, but it is not surprising that he opted for a more structured system. Gardenhire pointed out that their bullpen has operated well when everyone knows their roles.

    […]

    "You lose a closer and you have to ad lib a little bit, we all know that." Gardenhire said. "The best thing is for us to get on our way here and this guy is our closer and we’ll go from there and see what happens."

    Rauch is owned in 37 percent of Yahoo! leagues, but obviously he was drafted in any deeper format. Most of you know his major league history: good in Washington, bad in Arizona, then useful in 17 appearances for Minnesota last season. And he’s freakishly tall (6-11). And he has some closing experience, which always seems to be the tiebreaker in these situations.

    Rauch clearly doesn’t have a great deal of job security just yet, so enjoy the saves while they last. He’s the man. Until he isn’t the man. Matt Guerrier(notes) would presumably be the next man.

    Photo via AP Images

  • 5U: Texas confirms Kinsler to the DL; uncertainty in Mets ‘pen

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-608712682-1270212290.jpg?ymCr36CDJ5WzDJMv

    Special programming note: Please join us on Monday for an opening day live chat, beginning at noon CT. Here’s the schedule. Pick a favorite; share your thoughts with the class. No one leaves the live chat until all the afternoon games are finished.

    As expected, Ian Kinsler’s(notes) high ankle sprain will force him to begin the season on the disabled list. Texas general manager Jon Daniels confirmed the plan on Thursday:

    "We haven’t made the roster move yet so please blame the Texas Rangers for any fantasy inconvenience, not the bloggers at Yahoo! Sports, but the plan is for him to open on the DL," Daniels said.

    Kinsler’s recovery timetable isn’t perfectly clear. According to the team’s Website, he isn’t running yet, nor is he doing agility drills. Andres Blanco(notes), a non-factor in fantasy, is expected to play second base for the Rangers in Kinsler’s absence.

    In other Texas news, the team claimed Ryan Garko(notes) off waivers from Seattle. He’s not someone you need to own except in the ugliest formats, of course, but it’s worth noting that the right-handed hitting Garko will likely take a few at-bats from the left-handed hitting Chris Davis(notes) – and Davis owners shouldn’t really mind. Those were going to be terrible at-bats. Davis has posted a .226/.271/.428 line against LHPs over two seasons.

    Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez(notes) left the team after learning that a family member (believed to be his brother) was involved in a serious car accident. It’s clearly too soon to speculate on K-Rod’s status for opening day, even if his general manager believes he’ll be available. Here’s hoping the family gets some good news. The Mets are still settling their bullpen hierarchy – only 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia(notes) and lefty Pedro Feliciano(notes) have impressed this spring. Feliciano may have the primary setup role entering the season. Stay tuned.

    Blake DeWitt’s(notes) excellent spring (.339/.435/.532) gave him a clear edge over Ronnie Belliard(notes) in the battle for the Dodgers’ second base gig. On Thursday, Joe Torre confirmed that DeWitt had won the job (though not before pulling a semi-cruel April Fool’s joke). DeWitt is only qualified at third base for fantasy purposes at the moment, based on last year’s playing time. But he should be 2B-eligible in a week or so. DeWitt should be rostered in NL-only, though the power/speed combo is modest.

    As long as he’s in the player pool, I will be vulnerable to BJ Upton(notes) propaganda. So when the Tampa Tribune delivers a headline like, "Rays Upton might be back to his old self," I’m going to read it and link it. Here’s a sample:

    Upton said his batting woes can be traced to a physical problem – he was still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery – that eventually affected his confidence.

    […]

    "B.J. is definitely on a mission," Rays third baseman Evan Longoria(notes) said. "He has worked hard. Hopefully, it transfers into the season."

    "B.J. looks awesome right now," Rays left fielder Carl Crawford(notes) said. "I think he’s determined to get back to being his old self."

    Upton is hitting .305 this spring and slugging .576. He’s swiped 40-plus bases in each of the last two seasons, but he hasn’t been a power asset since 2007. He’s clearly no longer the Alpha Upton, but at age 25, we’re still allowed to discuss potential.

    Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton(notes) will open the season on the DL due to a "mild oblique strain." The injury will require 3-6 weeks to heal, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer. Kyle Kendrick(notes) is expected to take Blanton’s spot in the rotation, which will of course creates additional problems in a bullpen that’s already heavily damaged.  

    Photo via US Presswire 

  • The Roto Arcade Pro-Am, Year Two

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-146625465-1270135667.jpg?ymz9k6CDhDjQM5lr

    Here at Roto Arcade, we take user feedback very seriously. And not a day goes by that we don’t receive 50 emails asking – no, demanding – that we analyze our own fantasy drafts. The longer the analysis, the better. The Yahoo! community has spoken with one voice, urging us to deliver as many million-word draft reviews as possible. (IceBerg is really the lone dissenter). 

    Today, you get your wish. The Roto Arcade Pro-Am recently held its auction, and the participants were kind enough answer questions about their strategies. This year’s league is significantly different from the inaugural version, as we’re going head-to-head (my preference) and we’ve added OPS and holds as categories (personal favorites). Just like last season, the 14 league members are a collection of excellent fantasy bloggers and sketchy Arcade commenters.

    As you read the Qs and As below, you’ll find that the mix of auction tactics at work in the Pro-Am was fairly typical. We had people who took the stars-and-scrubs approach, and others who sought balance. And we had an auto-picker who missed the auction entirely, because his life is spinning horribly out of control. My team, Secret Treasure Loaf, took an approach that was rather similar to this one, discussed on Tuesday. In mixed leagues of reasonable size, I’ll generally spend big for elite talent, then target specific positions and players in the $1 speed round. But you don’t need to read my mixed auction philosophy again.

    Let’s hear from the other participants…

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-540784652-1270134359.jpg?ymXpk6CDTg5Zl_RO

    Rudy Gamble and Grey Albright, Razzball
    Team Name: Razzball

    Q: In the final hour of the auction, you guys definitely had the biggest pile of chips – well, other than our auto-picking friend slondo1, who left $34 unspent. You used your financial leverage to outbid the room on a few players at the end, including Chase Headley(notes). Care to project his 2010 season? That definitely seemed to be a case where you were targeting the player.

    A: We’ve found that third base is the most overvalued position in drafts this year. When every solid 3B went off the board at what we felt were inflated rates, we just punted it figuring that we can get an upside play like Headley at the very end. Interestingly enough, this is the player whom Grey and myself (Rudy) differ on the most. Grey projects him at 70/20/85/.290/10 while I’ve got him at 72/14/67/6/.260. The league is shallow enough at 14 teams that if Headley ends up more like my projections, we can drop him for someone better.

    Q: So is it typical for you to complete an auction without owning any $30 players, or any $1 players?

    A: Yes. Our No. 1 goal is to have across-the-board depth vs. investing heavy in a few players, as it leaves us less vulnerable if a big injury hits or a player has a huge falloff in performance (like 2009 with Reyes & Wright). In addition, when so many teams are going for broke on players in a relatively deep format like 14-team MLB – 11 guys at $40-plus, 27 guys above $30-plus – you know money will run out and you’ll be able to stock up on second-tier player at relative bargains.

    The reason we didn’t end up with any $1 players is that, by not paying big premiums early in the draft, we never had to resort to $1 players. Why pay $1 for guys like Jake Fox(notes) and Aubrey Huff(notes) when you can get The Big FraGu and Nick Swisher(notes) for $3?

    Q: You spent $46 on closers and another $5 on holds. Was that by design? Because when you think of Razzball, you think of SAGNOF…

    A: That’s true. We love our SAGNOF. We spent more on closers than we normally would. It was a combination of having enough money, and that you can never have enough closers (we ended up with four) – even in H2H. It’s a lot easier to trade a closer than it is to trade any other player you draft for $12 or less. As for the $5 on holds (Madson at $3, Sherrill at $2), we figured these were some of the better middle relievers, but we didn’t want to spend too much on them since holds can be found in free agency.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-366099612-1270167340.jpg?ymtss6CDjIBYbHnZJared Norris, "Uncle Charlie," Fantasy Baseball Geeks
    Team Name: Ron Gant’s Bicep

    Q: You bought a very large pile of starting pitchers, yet left a "Util" spot open. (Some of the pitchers will become DL-eligible soon, so you’ll have roster spots to work with). Is that your typical approach in head-to-head, or were you just buying values? And why have not we made a trade yet? Our needs are perfectly aligned.

    A: Some people collect baseball cards, some people still collect “Goosebumps” books, and I would not be surprised if someone has collected all 93 films staring Eugene Levy. I, on the other hand, collect starting pitchers – or should I say hoard starting pitchers. In the four leagues I’m participating in this season, I have 16 starting pitchers comfortably sitting on my bench (21 total bench spots). So yes, this was another example of my usual approach in a head-to-head league.

    In 2009, 26 of the top 50 starting pitchers ended up being drafted after pick No. 150. Of those 26, four were not drafted in most leagues (Happ, Wells, Feldman, Correia). So I figure why not try and maximize my potential by targeting starting pitchers with upside late in this auction? If I end up with seven or eight starting pitchers, targeting some with risk and some without, I’m bound to hit on three or four of them, which will end up filling my starting staff. I like my chances given the starting pitchers I bought late in the draft: John Lackey(notes) at $9, David Price(notes) at $5, Brandon Webb(notes) at $2, Erik Bedard(notes) at $2, Wade Davis(notes) at $1, Luke Hochevar(notes) at $1, Fausto Carmona(notes) at $1, and Marc Rzepczynski(notes) at $1.

    I did not intentionally leave my Utility spot open; I ended up having to auto-draft the last five rounds, which is probably how I ended up with Juan Uribe(notes) as my MI. Do not get me wrong – I love watching Uribe flip his bat (a la Dante Bichette) 15 times a year, but I would have much rather grabbed another MI.

    Q: Give me projections for David Price and Wade Davis, please. That’s an interesting fantasy pairing.

    A: I guess I should be asking you, Mr. Behrens, “Keeper of the secret loaf,” for your projections on David Price, seeing how you sent me a trade offer for him an hour after the draft. I think Price is in for a rebound season in 2010 – remember, it was only two years ago when we were drafting him like we are Strasburg this year, and as we did with Hanson last year. In 2008, we stashed Price counting down the days ’til June 1st, which then turned into July 1st, which then turned into after the All-Star break…OK, well, maybe Price ended up taking a little bit longer than Strasburg probably will, but at the time the hype around Price was just as strong as the other two. In 2010, I think Price will end up with a similar line to the one teammate Matt Garza(notes) put up last year, in his second full season: 8 W, 12 L, 200 INN, 190 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP. Except I think Price will end up with more wins; somewhere between 10-to-14.

    I’m a big believer in Wade Davis. What is not to enjoy about a young pitcher who is 6-5, 220 lbs. and commands a fastball above 95 mph? Young power pitchers like Davis continue to put up quality starts in the majors (see Josh Johnson(notes) and Brett Anderson(notes)). I’m tempering my expectations this season a little for Davis and hoping for a line somewhere along the lines of 10 W, 175 INN, 170 K, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. Drafting young starting pitchers on the Rays in the finals rounds is a excellent rule of thumb to follow. It has worked out well the past few years if you drafted Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price. I’m hoping it pans out with Davis, and I’ll take the same approach next year with Jeremy Hellickson(notes).

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-197570638-1270134484.jpg?ymVrk6CDzALUDAId

    Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe
    Team Name: Republik of Mancunia

    Q: Damn you for getting Quentin. Just throwin’ that out there. I realize it’s not really a question. Moving on…

    A: Yes, I’m really quite content to nab Carlos Quentin(notes), even if it meant shelling out a few more dollars, because he has been a routine target of mine in all of my drafts. Even a year removed from a wrist injury, he still clubbed 21 home runs in 350-some at-bats. Of course I have a few concerns with him, namely his record for being a bit injury prone. He isn’t a great line-drive hitter, which will keep his batting average from going above the .280 mark. Quentin is just 27 going on 28, and the power potential is still there. The wrist should be healed. As long as his foot problem doesn’t flare up, 30 homers is definitely not a stretch. I knew Quentin’s average auction value in Yahoo was around $5-6, but I also knew most guys in the room would spot him as a potential game-changing value. The only thing I’m a bit disappointed with is that I might have had Quentin for, say, $9 instead of $17, had it not been for just one manager who was bidding hard for him. (I guess that was you, Andy). Still, not a bad price on a guy who can produce second or third round value.

    Q: Is your intention to punt saves entirely (completely reasonable in this format), or should I be making closer-for-starter trade offers?

    A: Yes and no. No, I don’t go into any draft or auction planning to punt saves, but yes, punting saves was a very strong consideration going into it. About midway through the auction, I was pretty much set on going to the dollar store for middle relievers and using every extra dollar on my offense and/or starting rotation. Personally, I wasn’t too thrilled with the idea of paying $8-9 on the likes of Carlos Marmol(notes) and Francisco Cordero(notes), given the volatile nature of H2H on a weekly basis. The same idea applied to the top setup men for holds. That’s not to say I didn’t try to get at least one closer, though, because I was sniped from getting Brian Fuentes(notes) for just $2.

    In the end, I was pleased with the bullpen I built. I took four middle relievers for just a dollar each. Mike Adams(notes) and Jason Frasor(notes), in particular, could wind up closing by season’s end, and are fantastic value for solid ratios and holds. (Ed’s Note: Frasor will be closing next week, in fact). Dan Wheeler(notes) and Jim Johnson(notes) do stand some chance of closing as well, considering the injury concerns with their team’s respective closers (Rafael Soriano(notes) and Mike Gonzalez(notes)).

    Q: You didn’t reach $40 on any player. Is that a standard approach for you in auctions?

    To be honest, I haven’t played in an auction league in many moons and my approach was a vague one, at best. I know for sure I wasn’t against bidding $45 on the top stud bats, namely Pujols, Fielder, Braun, Hanley, and A-Rod. (I stayed well away from the Justin Upton(notes) bid war, though). Knowing that this was a H2H league helped in forming a basis for a game plan. Like I said, I only wanted to pay $1-3 on relievers and I surely didn’t want to pay $20 for any starting pitcher. I was also intent on paying no more than $20 on my No. 1 outfielder, then hitting the bargain basement with my C, MI, CI, and two UTIL spots. I was willing to fork up a big premium on my infielders, namely 1B, SS, and 3B, which made any bidding war on Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, etc. all the more acceptable. Once I saw that a few guys had dedicated their budget on two $40-plus players, I made up my mind to take a hybrid of the same conservative approach Grey was using, and an aggressive approach on winning the players who I think possess a good chance at producing first/second round value (Gonzalez, Wright, Rollins, Quentin).

    Had this been a roto league, I would have gone the extra dollar on a top 5-10 hitter – maybe even two $45-50 hitters, if need be. I think the best of what Pujols and Hanley bring to the table is illustrated in roto, and that’s where their true worth comes out. In H2H, all production fluctuates on a week-to-week basis – namely steals, saves, holds, and batting average. In that sense, I didn’t mind spreading the wealth around my roster if it meant I was going to pay a little more for guaranteed production (Ibanez, Ethier) and snagging some upside players who could produce like $20 players (Nolasco, Johnson, Quentin). Maximizing my R, HR, RBI, W, K potential for consistency from each spot became more important than just building around two $45-50 assets, while lacking some flexibility to build a great team off of it.

    Despite some rusty moments, I felt like I stuck to a good game plan. In particular, I loved getting Johnson and Ricky Nolasco(notes) for $17 apiece, not a shabby price for two potential top 10 aces, in my opinion. I think my success mostly depends on the health of my starting pitchers, namely Kazmir, Ervin Santana(notes), and Tim Hudson(notes), but if any one of them pans out, I like my chances overall. Of course Adrian Gonzalez(notes) being traded out of Petco by deadline day would help.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-165476674-1270167357.jpg?ym9ss6CDe9U_ptKzMillion_Dollar_Sleeper, Yahoo! commenter, blogmaster at MDSfantasy
    Team Name: The Fiat Punto

    Q: Congratulations, sir, on purchasing perhaps the buzziest fantasy roster I’ve ever seen. You literally bought all of this year’s most hyped players: Bruce, Gonzalez, Anderson, Heyward, et al. Any regrets about the prices?

    A: No regrets about the prices. I had to pay full price on CarGo, the waiting game didn’t work out too well there. I’d take him over Bay at $20, but I am a little jealous of Werth and Cruz going for the same price. Bruce was the 119th player nominated and one of the last power bats out there, so $16 isn’t a bad price for him. I’m not worried about the batting average; the BABIP will correct itself. Heyward is a superstar. Virgil is sewing him a technicolor dream coat right now; $12 was nothing. His keen eye will help the OPS and he has a nice power/speed combo. My man-crush on Brett Anderson rivals Noise’s feelings for Billy Butler(notes). Brett racks up the K’s, has good control, and induces ground balls. That is the holy trinity for SPs. Pitching in Oakland doesn’t hurt, either. From June through September, Anderson posted a 8.7 K/9, 1.18 WHIP, 3.33 ERA. Sure, I may have went into the draft eyeing a few specific players, when most gameplans look for cheap prices regardless of the player name. But there were going to be some good $1 buys with the replacement value, and the way people were spending early in the draft. I wanted to get players who will make a big jump in perceived value. I believe all these players will do so.

    Q: OK, convince me that Weeks-Escobar-Hudson isn’t the worst middle infield in the history of fantasy.

    A: Weeks has 20/20 written all over him: 20 days on the disabled list, 20 trade offers sent out by MDS. I know the batting average is risky, but he does take a lot of walks, so the OPS is OK. I just have this feeling that Rickie will defy the injury gods and break out. He is having a great spring, if that counts for anything. Yunel Escobar(notes) is a solid option. He was No. 11 in my SS ranks and his OPS will be over .800. I shouldn’t have to defend him. Orlando Hudson(notes) is hitting in front of Joe Mauer(notes) and Justin Morneau(notes). I’ll get a 10/10 HR/SB combo, decent OPS, and a lot of runs. I’m sure I’ll shop him around after a couple months; he seems to slow down around the All-Star break. I wanted to save money without having to roster David Eckstein(notes). I think I accomplished that, with two solid options and a risk/reward-type player.

    Q: I’ll give you credit for calling Ryan Franklin’s(notes) 2009 season much earlier (and of course much louder) than anyone else. Is Bruney this year’s Franklin?

    A: Yes it is true that MDS was able to see into the mind of Tony La Russa, but I don’t think there is a "this year’s Franklin". I spent almost all my money before I could address saves, which I do regret because there were good deals later on. So I went for set-up men who could possibly take over the reigns. I didn’t know about Bruney’s 1.50 WHIP and control issues until after I drafted him. For some reason, I thought he was better than that. I could have sworn he was on my watch list last year in holds leagues. I actually had Sean Burnett(notes) on a few of my teams last year, anticipating the MacDougal demotion. Matt Capps(notes) will lose his job eventually. It would have happened sooner, but the Nats released Every Day Eddie. Because I missed out on saves – I didn’t want Wood for $2, where were you guys? – and it is a H2H league, I don’t mind loading up on holds. Maybe I’ll get lucky with an injured closer (Billy Wagner(notes), c’mon down) and split the reliever stats 1-1 each week. Bruney will likely be dropped.

    Scott Pianowski, Roto Arcade
    Team Name: pianow

    Q: Your first three buys were outfielders; they went for a total of $109. It was almost an anti-scarcity approach. Were you thinking about "The $100 Outfield" as you bought them? I’m guessing it was a case where you specifically wanted 5-category players at the top, yeah?

    (Ed’s note: "The $100 Outfield" refers to roto’s founding fathers. Someone spent $100 on Dave Kingman, Ron LeFlore and Bobby Bonds. It did not go well). 

    A: Everyone generally has a "reset, start over" moment in an auction. Mine came pretty early. At least I didn’t say $32 for Paul Householder. I wanted to do some version of stars and scrubs, so the I’m not terribly disappointed with Justin Upton, Matt Kemp(notes), Evan Longoria(notes) and Dustin Pedroia(notes), even if I overpaid somewhat for Upton and Longoria. Ellsbury is the play that sticks out like a sore thumb – there’s no reason to go into the $20s for speed when you can get Rajai Davis(notes) for a buck. (I’m shocked that wasn’t topped, but that’s beside the point; cheap speed is out there).

    My team is also designed sweetly for a 5×1 league – lots of offense, some closers. My starting pitching has no one close to ace level; I’ll need a lot of fixes there.

    Q: I’ve been in other auctions with you, yet I’ve never before seen you reach the point where you only had $1 to bid on the last few roster spots. Was that an accident?

    A: I like to have some leverage in the endgame and avoid the $1 draft portion of the program, but I had trouble staying disciplined in the pre-endgame, and wound up being in the flea market with everyone else. And so it goes. Fortunately when you’re in my world, you usually get a shot at redemption 24 hours later (in a new league) or 30 seconds later (on the waiver wire).

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-527355038-1270134588.jpg?ym8sk6CDNdbwtGmS

    Rob, Yahoo! commenter
    Team Name: Patrick Bateman

    Q: OK, how high would you have gone on Mauer? Because $44 seems like it must be the outer limit, yeah? I’ll now yield 100 words for you to make the position scarcity argument…

    A: As far as the price goes, I probably would have gone $48. Getting both Mauer and Fielder was on the top of my to-do list. Howard went for $41 the pick before, and I felt $44 was a fair price on an elite catcher given the lack of depth at the position. The very next pick was Braun at $44; outfield is a lot deeper and can be had later in the auction for less money. Catchers are a hot commodity; having one that puts up numbers like Mauer goes a long way in a 14-team league.

    Q: In an OPS league, you bought two of the cheap-speed/no-power outfielders (Michael Bourn(notes) and Rajai Davis). Was that just a case of finding value late in the process?

    A: Getting Fielder (1.014 OPS) and Mauer (1.031) early gave me options on speed later in the auction, without having to worry about power so much. In 2009, Davis had 41 steals, 65 runs score, and he batted .305 with an OPS of .783. I was shocked that I got him for $1, honestly. It makes me think I overpaid for Bourn at $8.

    Eric Hinz, Fake Teams
    Team Name: Oscar Meyer Wieters

    Q: OK, for the second straight season, you use "Wieters" in the team name, yet he’s nowhere to be found on your roster. What gives? At least you bid on him this time.

    A: No amount of pressure will get me to overpay for a player, and I was feeling it in the draft room. At times like that, I look towards that paragon of determination and fortitude, The Black Knight. As he so eloquently said in the face of majestic tyranny, "I move for no man."

    So I stopped bidding on Wieters around $20. At the time, I knew that was still a value relative to Mauer’s auction price, but V-Mart and McCann were still there. Ultimately, I ended up with Jorge Posada(notes) for $2.

    Q: You and I seemed to have similar approaches here, waiting until the very end to address starting pitching. (And then you snaked me on De La Rosa, Latos and Marcum). Is that something you do in every draft/auction, or is it format-specific?

    A: Like all great draft strategists, I wait until the draft is finished and I have my team before explaining things. While not to the level of buying a monster truck, I wanted to overcompensate for the sixth pitching category, holds, and the format. In the draft chat, you mentioned holds were a personal favorite category. As such, I figured you had properly discounted SPs in favor of RPs in the H2H format, and were going to go for end-of-the-draft starters. Clearly, my hindsight was 20/15 as I swiped three of your favorites.

    "Oh, had enough, eh?"

    Keith G, Yahoo! commenter
    Team Name: dudes

    Q: That’s really a solid team, especially considering that you had no more than 60 minutes to prepare. Your first two buys were Roy Halladay(notes) and Zack Greinke(notes). Was that the plan going in? Get a pair of aces, then buy a collection of $15-$25 hitters?

    A: Yes, I was stoked at the opportunity to get into this league, but like you said it was last minute, and this was my first auction draft. I got into a mock right after I found out about this, but it didn’t do me much good – there were only three real people in it. Anyways, I basically went in with no strategy whatsoever. I’m not going to lie. I started off hesitant to throw big money at any one player, and next thing I knew I had Halladay and Greinke on my team. I figured at least I could forget about pitching for the next several rounds. I definitely had some misfires on my first go ’round, but my team didn’t turn out a total disaster, I don’t think.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-956297488-1270134655.jpg?ym_tk6CDsPXyLoxc

    Tom Herrera, FanHouse
    Team Name: FanHouse Finaglers

    Q: You bought your first ten players in a hurry, then didn’t acquire anyone between nominations No. 100 and No. 225. Is that standard procedure for you in an auction, or did you just happen to get a bunch of targeted players in the first hour?

    A: Actually, no. I’m usually super-passive at an auction when all the big names are flying early, because I can’t believe the absurdity of inflation. But I thought this one was different because there were some very appealing prices early on. I do wish I got in the mix on Mark Teixeira(notes) because he was definitely the biggest bargain of the sluggers, and power wound up being the biggest weakness of my roster. Once I realized my money was fading and I had a lot of positions still to fill, I told myself I better chill out for a while and see how the money gets spent, try my hand at some bargains late.

    One of the big advantages of doing this Yahoo! online auction is everyone’s salaries are right in front of you. When I’m at a live auction, it makes it much harder to track if it’s just you, unless you have some kind of software to do it for you. Then when the salaries were all level, I joined in again.

    Q: Was the $10 bullpen by design? Shouldn’t you make me an offer for Motte, so as to back up Franklin?

    A: Yes, Matthew Berry taught us well to never pay for saves, and while that’s harder to do in an auction, I don’t believe in wasting big money on a Mariano or Papelbon. (Ed’s note: Tom and I were Talented Mr. Roto graduate assistants, back in the day. Berry has an extensive coaching tree). It may be a nausea-inducing bullpen on paper, but the save total is what counts in the end. Also, I didn’t bother to go after holds specifically; since there are usually a few surprises on the wire, you can get a few holds from. If Franklin sputters out, I’ll grow an awesome goatee in his honor until he gets back on track again.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-735289802-1270167700.jpg?ymVys6CDDVg.k9xWBrendan Horton, Fantasy Baseball Cafe
    Team Name: Imma Let You Finish

    Q: You happen to own two players who are thought to be prime candidates for disastrous regression: Mark Reynolds(notes) and Aaron Hill(notes). I’m not saying that I think they will regress disastrously – in fact, Reynolds has become a pet player of mine – but the industry is down on them. Give us projections for those two, please.

    A: Reynolds’ average is a terrifying prospect, especially if his BABIP regresses for any reason. However, 40/20 players are few and far between. I think he’s exactly that; last year was not some sort of anomaly. None of his indicator rates really spiked abnormally, so for the price I felt he was worth the gamble. Hill I fully expect to see regress in the home run department, but still a .280, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB, .800 OPS is nothing to downplay, and worth what I paid for him.

    Q: Johan Santana(notes) was an interesting buy, and your logo suggests a certain fondness for Mets. I take it you’re feeling good about Johan in the year ahead? Not worried about his off-season maintenance?

    A: As only the 13th highest paid player at auction, I think that’s reasonable value for a guy who I still believe is capable of being a Cy Young contender. Provided he’s healthy and the entire Mets team doesn’t spend the year on the disabled list like last year, I think he puts up the typical 200 inning, 200 strikeout, mid-2.00 ERA season we’ve come to expect. I usually don’t let the Mets blinders come out in fantasy, and I’m hoping that isn’t what happened here.

    Slondo1, Yahoo! commenter
    Team Name: Bender B. Rodriguez

    Q: Ah, Bender. Where to begin? You were the lone auto-picker in the room, which of course put you in an awful position. You have no catcher. You left $34 on the table. Your middle infield is straight outta 2003. How can you fix this?

    A: Due to my super-awesome oversleeping, I choose to consider this a "control" team: a test of what auto draft can do versus real players. (Ed’s note: The draft was in the afternoon. He overslept an *afternoon* draft). That being said, I would like all league members to sign a pledge promising to retire forever from fantasy baseball if they finish below me in the final standings. I’m only half kidding.

    Q: Few people know this, but you’re the originator of The Distler Method. Can it possibly work in a 6X6 like this?

    A: No way, no how. Definitely not when OPS is a category. In fact, the method as a whole is down right now due to the stolen base making a comeback and home runs being on the decline. It’s no longer the rare specialist commodity that it was five, four or even three years ago, and with younger players all the rage, there’s more all-category players. The absence of 40-year-old lumbering power hitters killed the Distler Method. If only they’d allow more steroids.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-1956284-1270134779.jpg?ym7vk6CDGyOeJAEK

    A-mak15, Yahoo! commenter, defending league champion
    Team Name: Surrendering Pumas

    Q: Is it correct to assume that you were determined to fill the talent-scarce infield spots early, then take whatever the auction gave you at 1B, OF and Util?

    A: I went into this draft under the impression that, because the league settings are so different from standard leagues – 14 teams, 20 positions to fill – managers would adjust their spending accordingly. My meticulously constructed strategy, it failed miserably.

    The entire room spent like it was default settings. When you increase the number of positions, you have to reduce the dollar value of each player. You can’t blindly throw $45 at a stud when, in this format, they should be going for $29. That’s why 12 teams overspent and were forced to watch helplessly on the sideline.

    Third base is scarce; I was going to outbid everyone to get A-Rod. That was the mindset. Utley, Dunn and Jeter, too. I would aggressively pursue them. That would give me an average line of 95-30-91-16-.294 and an OPS of over .900 between them. Unfortunately, RGB’s completely disturbing adoration for Jeter left me throwing $31 (market price) at Reyes instead.

    A-Rod should have reasonably gone for $32-$35 because of the unique settings. Not $46. I had the intention of dropping $95, nabbing A-Rod, Utley, Dunn and Jeter. Landing A-Rod and Utley shouldn’t have cost me $92, not in this format.

    Q: You put a bunch of closers up for bid and went after most of them aggressively, eventually coming away with K-Rod. Were you thinking that in a draft room full of industry folks, you’d get saves at below-market prices?

    A: My strategy consisted of nominating four closers with my first four picks and coming away with three. I wanted Broxton, Papelbon and K-Rod, but the prices were outrageous. I thought others would shy away because endgame closers are so cheap (Leo Nunez(notes) at $1, Trevor Hoffman(notes) at $2, Huston Street(notes) at $3) and because they would invest their money elsewhere. It’s so early; how do you drop $20 on a one-cat player?

    The plan was to invest a substantial amount of my budget ($210 or $220) on hitting, acquire three elite closers and one Kevin Gregg(notes) with the remaining dough, scoop up three set-up guys off waivers, and stream. A hitter is more valuable than a starting pitcher in the Pro-Am because you’re playing for six categories as opposed to four. If I roll out an outstanding offense and I’m competitive in the holds and saves categories, then stream for wins and strikeouts, there is no possible scenario in which I don’t waltz into the playoffs.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-497675638-1270167735.jpg?ym3ys6CD.exL1DfyScott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
    Team Name: The Sherpa

    Q: Tell me a little something about your nomination strategy, please. You tossed out a series of $1 middle relievers, and I don’t think you actually bought any of them. Were you trying to get the rest of us to waste a dollar here, dollar there?

    A: I was trying to throw people off-balance a bit – tough to do with this crowd – by nominating guys like David Robertson(notes), Chris Perez(notes) and Jason Motte(notes) while most people were still nominating guys in the $20-30 range. I was hoping that others might pass on guys at that stage of the auction whom they would have bid up later on. I figured I’d win either way: Either I’d get a strong holds guy (with the potential to become a closer) at a discount early in the auction, or I’d force other teams to make quick decisions and hopefully spend more than they would have been willing to later in the auction.

    Q: You’ve rostered three catchers in a one-catcher league. Trade chips? Total Catcher Control strategy? Please explain.

    A: You’re not giving me enough credit here – I actually bought four catchers during the auction, although one of them, Victor Martinez(notes), is also a decent (albeit not great) option at first base. I’d like to tell you that this was the result of a brilliant master plan to hoard talent at a thin position in order to trade from a position of strength. In reality, it was the combination of happenstance and my unsuccessful attempt to outsmart Yahoo!’s auto-bid program, which had to be called back from the clubhouse to pinch-hit for one of the teams.

    I thought I had figured out how far I could bid-up Team Robo-Bid without getting stuck with a player, but I guessed wrong on Russell Martin(notes). I don’t know why I felt responsible for doing that with 12 other owners in the auction, but I just did. Then, intent on proving I had learned my lesson, I tested Robo-Bid’s limits again with Mike Napoli(notes) – and, you guessed it, I guessed wrong yet again. At least I should have the catcher spot covered, even if there’s a natural disaster at this year’s All-Star game.

    Coincidentally (well, maybe not), I made a similar mistake the other day in another league and got stuck with Ollie Perez. I never realized what a proud (and stubborn) people the sherpas are. The moral of the story: If you’re in a league with me, please show up to the draft on time so that you’ll save me from myself. That, and don’t run with scissors.

    Photos via US Presswire