Author: Darren Rickard

  • WALL STREET JOURNAL: Cadbury Accepts Fresh Kraft Offer

    DANA CIMILLUCA, JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and ILAN BRAT

    JANUARY 19, 2010, 6:43 A.M. ET

    Kraft Foods Inc. on Tuesday clinched a deal to acquire Cadbury PLC for £11.9 billion ($19.44 billion), in a trans-Atlantic tie-up that ends the nearly 200-year independence of Britain’s most famous candy company.

    See how these global brands have evolved.

    After more than four months of public sparring that followed Kraft’s hostile-takeover approach for the U.K. confectioner, Cadbury’s board accepted the U.S. food giant’s offer as Kraft relented to the demands of Cadbury management and shareholders, sweetening its bid and adding cash.

    Kraft agreed to pay 840 pence a share for Cadbury, as well as a 10 pence dividend. The revised offer is for 500 pence in cash for each Cadbury share and 0.1874 new Kraft shares for each Cadbury share, an increase from its original offer of 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 new Kraft shares.

    Tuesday’s deal unites Cadbury, which focuses solely on candy and traces its roots to 1824, with its larger and more diversified U.S. counterpart. Kraft covets Cadbury in part because of the U.K. company’s access to fast-growing developing markets such as India and Brazil.

    The deal came as Kraft faced a deadline imposed by U.K. takeover authorities to make a final offer for Cadbury by the end of Tuesday. Cadbury has repeatedly rebuffed Kraft since the Northfield, Ill., company first publicly announced its offer in early September, which was then valued at about $16.5 billion.

    Many Cadbury shareholders in recent days have been vocal in their opposition to Kraft’s cash-and-stock offer, which until the weekend was valued at about 770 pence a share. They might now be won over by the new offer, since many of the holders are hedge funds that bought Cadbury stock after Kraft put the company in play, and are only looking for a relatively small return. The recommendation from Cadbury’s board is also likely to make a big difference in convincing long-term Cadbury shareholders, many of them big U.K. institutional investors, that selling to Kraft now is the right thing to do. Cadbury shareholder have until Feb. 2 to accept the offer.

    The latest round of talks was initiated by Kraft on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    The move to engage with Kraft was an abrupt U-turn for Cadbury and its chairman, Roger Carr. He called Kraft a “low-growth conglomerate,” accused it of showing “contempt” for Cadbury shareholders with its initial offer price and asked those shareholders not to let their company be “stolen.” He and Cadbury Chief Executive Todd Stitzer have also criticized the track record of Kraft management, led by CEO Irene Rosenfeld. The two men repeatedly signaled that they would rather do a deal with Hershey Co., which they indicated would be a better cultural and operational fit for Cadbury.

    [cadbury1216] Bloomberg News

    The deal comes with significant risks for Kraft. Cross-border transactions have tended to fare poorly over the years. And Kraft’s own shareholders—including its largest holder, Warren Buffett‘s Berkshire Hathaway—have publicly worried about overpaying for Cadbury.

    Ms. Rosenfeld met with Mr. Buffett recently and he was “totally supportive” of the new terms, a person familiar with Kraft’s offer said. Mr. Buffett didn’t return calls requesting comment.

    Combining with Cadbury would catapult Kraft into the highest tier of the global confectionery industry, potentially expanding Kraft’s sales outside of North America and Europe. Already, Cadbury is the biggest confectioner in growth markets such as India, Mexico, Egypt and Thailand, according to consulting firm Euromonitor International, and emerging markets provide 38% of the company’s global sales, compared with about 20% at Kraft. Cadbury’s sales in the Asia-Pacific region alone amount to about 20% of the company’s revenue. Cadbury has about $500 million in sales in Mexico, while Kraft has about $350 million there, according to Barclays Capital analyst Andrew Lazar.

    Buying Cadbury would also add strong sales of chewing gum, especially in Latin America, to Kraft’s portfolio. Confectionary products typically have higher margins than Kraft’s company-wide margin.

    In addition, Kraft would be able to secure more sales at convenience stores in the U.S. and Europe, a growing outlet for selling food in small servings. The gum, chocolate and other food sold in those outlets tend to carry higher profit margins than food sold at a grocery store, and convenience stores typically carry few Kraft products. Grabbing hold of Cadbury would immediately give Kraft a potentially new, and more profitable, channel of distribution.

    “It’s a great deal for Kraft as it minimizes dilution of shareholders,” said William Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital Management, which owns about 2.2% of Kraft shares. “Cadbury could not have achieved the same values on its own.”

    Should the talks between Kraft and Cadbury prove successful, it is likely that Hershey, which has been considering a bid of its own, will drop out, said people close to the U.S. chocolate maker. A deal would largely consign Hershey to selling chocolate in the U.S., a country with a slow-growing population in the midst of deep economic turmoil. Without greater access to growth markets Hershey faces a future of sales and earnings growth largely dependent on price increases or cost cuts. A spokesman for Hershey declined to comment.

    For Mr. Carr, the Cadbury chairman, the current saga began at the Lisbon airport one Friday afternoon last August. On his personal mobile phone, he found a voice mail from Kraft CEO Ms. Rosenfeld asking him for a meeting in London the following week.

    When the two later met at Mr. Carr’s office, Ms. Rosenfeld surprised Mr. Carr by almost immediately announcing she had a proposal to make. What surprised him even more was that she expected a swift answer, he recalled. Mr. Carr said the price she had proposed was inadequate and that he needed to confer with Cadbury’s board. The meeting with Ms. Rosenfeld lasted a mere 20 minutes.

    “She got on her Gulfstream, she flew back to America and I never heard from her again —until the letter,” Mr. Carr recalled, referring to the Aug. 28 letter that put the iconic company on the block.

    —Michael Carolan and Cecilie Rohwedder contributed to this article.

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  • CNN MONEY: AT A GLANCE: Cadbury Accepts Raised Bid From Kraft

    January 19, 2010: 05:48 AM ET

    LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Cadbury PLC (CBY) Tuesday accepted an GBP11.9 billion takeover offer from Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) of the U.S., a deal that ends a four- month acrimonious battle and nearly 200-years of independence for the U.K.’s largest confectionery company.

    THE DEAL:

    Kraft has agreed to pay 500 pence in cash for each Cadbury share as well as 0.1874 new Kraft shares for each Cadbury share, up from its original offer of 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 new Kraft shares. The original hostile bid had been rejected by Cadbury for being “derisory” and had been criticized by some shareholders for offering too little in cash.

    The new offer values Cadbury at GBP11.9 billion, compared with the original value of GBP10.2 billion.

    THE RATIONALE:

    Kraft says the takeover, creating a global confectionary giant with more than 40 confectionary brands and annual sales above $100 million. will result in ” meaningful” cost savings and revenue synergies.

    The U.S. company also says the deal gives Cadbury scale, an improved delivery infrastructure, and a leading position in developing markets including Brazil, Russia, India, China and Mexico.

    WHAT NEXT:

    A rival bidder could emerge for Cadbury, although this now seems unlikely. People close to U.S. chocolate maker Hershey Co. (HSY), which had been mulling a counterbid for Cadbury, told the Wall Street Journal Monday that Hershey would likely drop out of the running if Cadbury and Kraft agreed a deal.

    Cadbury has also agreed to pay a break fee of GBP117.7 million if it ever decides to recommend a competing offer–lessening the chance of a successful Hershey bid.

    The U.K. takeover authorities have set a Jan. 25 deadline for Hershey, or Italian chocolate maker Ferrero–which had also been considering its options but is believed to have dropped out–to make final offers.

    THE BACKGROUND:

    Kraft first went public with an informal cash-and-stock bid for Cadbury on Sep. 7, but Cadbury has consistently rejected its approach, saying the takeover offer was “derisory” and Cadbury’s shareholders shouldn’t swap the company’s growth prospects for Kraft’s “low-growth, conglomerate” model.

    Carr had also been critical of Kraft’s management, saying they had “a long track record for over-praising and under delivering.”

    It’s unclear what persuaded Carr and Cadbury Chief Executive Todd Stitzer to turn to recommend Kraft’s new offer, but the U.S. company went a long way to meeting the demands of shareholders, who had requested a higher offer and more cash.

    Kraft’s offer should appease Kraft’s largest shareholder Warren Buffett, who warned the company earlier this month against issuing too much new Kraft stock to pay for a deal.

    WHAT THEY SAID:

    “We are supportive of the (Cadbury) management’s decision although the achieved price is slightly light of our stated target.” – David Cumming, head of UK Equities at Standard Life Investments, a Cadbury shareholder with less than 1% of the stock.

    “We believe the offer represents good value for Cadbury shareholders and are pleased with the commitment that Kraft Foods has made to our heritage, values and people throughout the world. We will now work with the Kraft Foods’ management to ensure the continued success and growth of the business for the benefit of our customers, consumers and employees.” – Kraft Foods Chairman Roger Carr

    “For Kraft Foods shareholders (the deal) transforms the portfolio, accelerates long-term growth and delivers highly attractive returns, while maintaining financial discipline.” – Kraft Foods Chairman and CEO Irene Rosenfeld.

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  • ABC NEWS: Kraft Snares Cadbury for $19.6 Billion

    By David Jones

    LONDON (Reuters) – Kraft Foods agreed a recommended deal to buy Cadbury for around 11.9 billion pounds ($19.6 billion), creating the world’s top confectioner after frantic last-minute talks broke an impasse over price.

    Kraft’s CEO Irene Rosenfeld had to inject more cash into her bid and drop the number of new Kraft shares in the offer to win over Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr and mollify her top shareholder, billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

    Kraft’s cash-and-share deal values each Cadbury share at 840 pence, with shareholders also set to get a 10p special dividend, bringing it to a total of 850p, which prompted a unanimous recommendation from the Cadbury board in favor of the deal.

    Cadbury shares hit a record high of 838 pence in early trade and were up 3.7 percent 837-1/2p by 1003 GMT (5:03 a.m. EST).

    “Kraft has got a very good deal here. 850p is predicated on the current Kraft share price, and I would expect Kraft’s shares to rise today on the back on substantially less Kraft shares being issued as part of the deal,” said Panmure Gordon analyst Graham Jones.

    Kraft said the deal would be accretive to earnings in 2011 by around 5 cents on a cash basis and give a mid-teens percentage return on investment, well in excess of Kraft’s cost of capital.

    The new bid consists of 500p of cash and 0.1874 new Kraft shares, compared to Kraft’s original offer of 300p cash and 0.2589 new Kraft shares, which valued the shares in September when the deal was first proposed at 745p.

    Buffett, who owns a near-10 percent stake in Kraft had warned Rosenfeld not to overpay and issue too many new Kraft shares.

    Kraft said on Tuesday it was issuing 265 million new Kraft shares compared with its original plan to issue 370 million.

    SWEET DEAL

    The deal would create the world’s largest confectionery group ahead of privately owned Mars-Wrigley and bring under one roof Cadbury’s Dairy Milk chocolate and Trident gum and Kraft’s Milka, Toblerone and Terry’s chocolate brands.

    Cadbury investor Standard Life Investments said it supported the board’s decision to recommend the Kraft offer.

    “We are supportive of the management’s decision although the achieved price is slightly light of the stated target,” said David Cumming, head of UK equities at Standard Life.

    Cadbury unions have opposed the move fearing big job cuts and UK politicians have also weighed in, with general elections looming.

    UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown told a news conference after the deal was announced that he wanted to protect investment and jobs in Cadbury.

    “The one thing I want to say is this: we are determined that the levels of investment that take place in Cadbury’s in the United Kingdom are maintained,” he said.

    (Additional reporting by Paul Sandle and Keith Weir)

    (Reporting by David Jones; editing by Dan Lalor and Sitaraman Shankar)

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  • BUSINESSWEEK: Buffett Cuts Berkshire Stake Below 25% on Rail Deal, Charity

    By Andrew Frye and Jamie McGee

    Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett, who committed most of his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. shares to charity, is speeding the pace at which he reduces his ownership stake with the $26 billion takeover of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

    The issuance of Berkshire shares in support of the buyout would reduce Buffett’s stake in his firm stocks to about 24 percent. That compares with stakes of 40 percent in 1996 and 32 percent in 2006, the year he began handing over shares as part of the largest charitable donation in history, according to regulatory filings.

    Buffett, who said the rail purchase will produce income for “the next century,” is positioning Berkshire to profit from his investments after his reign as primary shareholder and chairman comes to a close. He’s diluted his stake in the past to aid Berkshire’s growth, most notably with the 1998 stock-funded takeover of insurer General Re. The Burlington deal puts much of the company’s excess cash to work, said investor David Carr.

    “The essence of Berkshire now on an ongoing basis is the culture,” said Carr, who manages Berkshire shares as chief investment officer at Oak Value Capital Management Inc. in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. The Burlington deal “actually strengthens the culture and fortifies it” by adding a business that will prosper when the U.S. economy grows and has a durable long-term advantage, he said.

    Berkshire investors will vote tomorrow on a stock split tied to the deal, and Burlington Northern shareholders will be asked to approve the transaction on Feb. 11. Buffett plans to issue about $10 billion of Berkshire stock to fund the transaction. He’s tapping Wells Fargo & Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. for an $8 billion loan, with the remaining $8 billion coming from Berkshire’s cash hoard.

    New Shareholders

    The acquisition will bring new rail investors to Berkshire while diluting the stake of the existing shareholders, who Buffett has praised as the best in the world. His 33 percent holding of Berkshire’s Class A stock is 10 times greater than the next-biggest investor and will allow him to maintain control of the firm even as his stake declines. Including the Class B shares, he reported owning 26 percent of Berkshire on Nov. 13.

    Buffett, Berkshire’s chief executive officer, also enjoys the support of top investors such as Vice Chairman Charlie Munger and the charity run by Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates. Smaller shareholders respect Buffett, the second-richest American behind Gates, for his investing success. In May, about 35,000 people filled Omaha’s Qwest Center arena and overflow rooms to hear Buffett speak at Berkshire’s annual meeting.

    ‘The Same Church’

    “We belong to the same church,” said Mohnish Pabrai, founder of Irvine, California-based Pabrai Investment Funds, which owns Berkshire shares. “Between Buffett, the Gates Foundation and all the friends of Warren Buffett — like me, for example — we will always vote our shares” the way Buffett wants, he said.

    Buffett, 79, built Berkshire over four decades from a failing maker of men’s suit linings into a $150 billion company through successful stock picks and dozens of takeovers. Buffett doesn’t pay dividends or buy back stock, preferring to use Berkshire’s earnings for acquisitions and investments. The company’s Class A stock has surged more than 30-fold since 1987 to $97,500 as of Jan. 15.

    Buffett is asking shareholders to approve a 50-for-1 split of the Class B shares tomorrow. The move would reduce the number of partial shares Berkshire would need to issue to Burlington Northern investors. Class B shares ended last week at $3,247 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

    Gates Foundation

    Buffett owns 350,000 shares — about a third — of Berkshire’s Class A stock, which trades for about 30 times the Class B shares and gives investors 200 times the voting power. He also owned about 1.5 million shares of the Class B stock, or 10 percent, as of November. Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment left with assistant Debbie Bosanek.

    In 2006, Buffett pledged 85 percent of his Berkshire holdings, a commitment valued at about $37 billion at the time, to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and charities of four of his family members. The Gates donation of 10 million Class B shares will be made in annual installments, and continue after Buffett’s death. The charity, established by Gates and his wife, funds projects that combat disease and global poverty.

    Buffett has said he’ll convert his Class A stock into Class B as needed to fund the commitment to the Gates Foundation, diluting the voting power of the shares before handing them over. He started with a donation of 500,000 shares and arranged for 5 percent of the remaining commitment to be handed out each year.

    Replacing Buffett

    Buffett has addressed investor concerns about his eventual departure in his annual letters, saying that he’ll be replaced by at least three people: a CEO from a list he and the board of directors keep, at least one person to manage investments, and his son Howard Buffett, who has been picked to be the next chairman.

    “It’s the most important issue there is,” Buffett said in an interview with Bloomberg Television at Berkshire’s headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska last year. “There’s nothing more important. Nobody knows on any given day where I’ll be the next day.”

    The purchase of Fort Worth, Texas-based Burlington Northern is an “all-in wager” on the U.S. economy and will produce returns for Berkshire for the next century, Buffett has said. The deal is the biggest of Buffett’s career, and will pay off for shareholders over time, said Frank Betz, partner at Warren, New Jersey-based Carret Zane Capital Management.

    The $18 billion all-stock takeover of Stamford, Connecticut-based General Re in 1998 diluted what had been a 40 percent stake two years before. The 26 percent economic interest he reported in November is worth almost $40 billion.

    “He’s still got enough,” Betz said.

    –Editors: Erik Holm, Dan Reichl

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  • BLOOMBERG UTV: Buffett wants to buy more Posco shares

    SEOUL: Warren Buffett wants to buy more shares in Posco, South Korea’s biggest steelmaker said, citing a meeting with the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

    Buffett “holds about 3.9 million shares to 4 million shares of Posco and will increase the holding,” the Pohang- based steelmaker said today in an e-mailed statement, citing Buffett after a meeting with its Chief Executive Chung Joon Yang in Omaha.

    “I should have bought more Posco shares when the stock price declined in the economic crisis last year,” said Buffett, according to Posco’s statement. Berkshire didn’t immediately respond to a message left with Buffett’s assistant Debbie Bosanek.

    Buffett’s intention to add Posco shares underscores expectations for a rebound in steel demand from carmakers and builders. Asia’s most profitable steelmaker plans to raise production by 17% this year, and will almost double capital spending to a record to invest in new plants and a mine to expand.

    Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire owns 5.2% of Posco, according to its Feb. 28, 2009 annual statement. Buffett called the mill the “best steel company in the world,” according to the Posco statement.

    Posco shares rose 1.3% to 606,000 won at 12:38 p.m. in Seoul, outperforming a 0.2% advance in the benchmark Kospi index.



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  • NEW YORK TIMES: Kraft Turns the Corner in Its Bid for Cadbury

    Published: January 18, 2010

    It would have been astonishing if Kraft Foods’ hostile bid for Cadbury had gone to the bitter end. Like most contested takeover battles, this one looks to be edging toward a last-minute rapprochement. Cadbury will most likely squeeze more out of Kraft without an auction — an impressive feat.

    Rick Maiman/Bloomberg News

    Will Henry Kravis, co-founder of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, lower its sights?

    Kraft is expected to pay about 840 pence ($13.70) in cash and stock, and let Cadbury shareholders keep a final dividend worth 12 pence a share. That takes Kraft’s offer to about 850 pence ($13.86). Kraft is also expected to raise the cash component to around 500 pence, more than half the consideration.

    That would be a 50 percent premium to Cadbury’s pre-bid share price, but it’s not hard for Kraft to justify. The market rise during the course of the battle accounts for 12 percent. Upgrades to sleepy analysts’ estimates provide perhaps another 10 percent, implying a reasonable 28 percent premium for control.

    Alternatively, put Cadbury’s forward earnings on a multiple of 15.5 times — a justifiable premium to the market given Cadbury’s double-digit compound earnings growth ahead — and it’s worth 682 pence on its own. With Cadbury’s help, Kraft should be able to lift the cost savings to 7.5 percent of Cadbury’s annual £6 billion in sales. That would imply synergies with a present value of more than £3 billion. On this math, Kraft might have justified a bid close to 900 pence a share.

    The re-jiggering of the cash and shares mix means Kraft can lower the amount of stock it puts into the offer, pleasing a big shareholder, Warren E. Buffett. As for Cadbury, it has delivered value for shareholders in an increasingly vulnerable situation.

    With hedge funds holding 20 percent and many American investors happy to take Kraft paper, Cadbury’s independence was threatened. Cadbury flirted with a bid from Hershey, which surely helped scare Irene Rosenfeld, Kraft’s chief executive, into raising her offer. Peter Mandelson, the British politician who appealed to shareholders not to sell on the cheap, also lent a hand.

    It looks as if Ms. Rosenfeld will get her deal. At some points during the battle it looked as if the Cadbury endeavor might sink her career. Now, as long as she can hold to her promises, she will look like the conquering hero of Candyland.

    Funds Lose Allure

    Giant private equity funds won’t be back for a while. New research shows many investors have lost interest in multibillion-dollar funds. That will make it tougher for big buyout shops like Blackstone and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts to raise money in the amounts they have become accustomed to. Some may even have to relearn smaller-scale methods of investing.

    The best-regarded firms can still raise plenty of money. BC Partners, a private equity fund based in Europe, is aiming to start a 6 billion euro fund. And Blackstone has gathered about $9 billion for its next fund.

    But firms may not be able to harvest as much money as they have in the past. Even if Blackstone’s total rises further, it will probably raise only about half the $21.7 billion that the firm raised in 2007 for a fund.

    Most big buyout firms will have to set their sights lower still. According to a recent survey by the data provider Preqin, 37 percent of buyout investors who had previously invested in large funds said that they would now avoid funds with more than $4.5 billion. Just 5 percent of investors said they would avoid small and midmarket funds.

    Investors are shying away from giant funds partly because, with less accommodating debt markets, the big deals these funds need are tough to pull off. For some of the same reasons, private equity managers are having trouble exiting larger investments profitably. Partly as a result, large funds are posting lower returns than midmarket funds, according to Preqin. That gives investors another reason to look elsewhere.

    Even if they can still raise billions, most private equity firms will have to revert to preboom types of deals. Rather than undertaking giant leveraged buyouts of public companies, the more typical investment used to be buying smaller private businesses and units from public companies.

    Going back to that kind of business may require more work by the buyout barons for deals with smaller fees and potential rewards. That means that as their funds shrink, big firms could find their profits — and payouts to their people — deflating, too.

    For more independent financial commentary and analysis, visit www.breakingviews.com.



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  • CNBC: Will Warren Buffett Give His Blessing to Kraft’s Friendly Deal for Cadbury?

    Published: Monday, 18 Jan 2010 | 8:37 PM ET


    By: Alex Crippen
    Executive Producer

    Despite Warren Buffett’s very public concerns about Kraft Foods overpaying for British confectioner Cadbury, the two companies are reportedly close to a friendly deal at the sweetened takeover price of $19 billion.

    CNBC’s David Faber, the Financial Times, Businessweek, and the Wall Street Journal, are among those reporting tonight (Monday) that an agreement could be announced as soon as early tomorrow morning, ending a nasty five-month takeover battle.

    It values Cadbury at 840 pence a share plus a ten pence dividend. The cash portion would increase from 300 pence to 500 pence.

    Latest Cadbury stock price in New York trading: [CBY 51.90 0.06 (+0.12%) ]

    Cadbury had rejected Kraft’s latest stock and cash bid, valued last week at 771 pence, as too low.

    There’s mixed news for Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway, Kraft’s largest shareholder with a stake of over 9 percent.

    Earlier this month, Berkshire very publicly criticized Kraft’s directors and management for their continuing takeover effort. In a news release that appeared to reflect Buffett’s own opinion, Berkshire said “we worry very much” that Kraft might raise its bid for Cadbury again, and said it would vote against Kraft’s proposal to authorize the issuance of up to 370 million shares to facilitate a deal.

    Back in September, Buffett told us that Kraft’s offer at that time of $16 billion was a “pretty full price” and that Kraft will have to “do a lot of things right to justify” paying that much.

    He can’t be happy that Kraft is now agreeing to pay another $3 billion.

    On the other hand, Kraft’s increased reliance on cash would be a positive for Buffett and Berkshire. The January 5 news release accused Kraft of potentially relying too much on its “undervalued” stock in buy Cadbury. “Kraft stock, at its current price of $27, is a very expensive ‘currency’ to be used in an acquisition.”

    Kraft’s stock price has climbed to $29.58 a share since that day. Current price: [KFT 29.58 0.46 (+1.58%) ]

    Berkshire also worried the share-issuance proposal would “give Kraft a blank check” to change its offer for Cadbury “in any way it wishes.”

    At the time, Berkshire left open the possibility of changing its vote and supporting a deal if Kraft’s final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.”

    Now that a merger pact is solidifying, Buffett will have the hard numbers he wanted to make that decision.

    But, as David points out in his January 5 Faber Report post, there may not be a shareholder vote at all if Kraft structures the deal so that it does not need to issue more than 20 percent of its outstanding shares.

    Current Berkshire stock prices:

    Berkshire Portfolio

    Class A: [BRK.A 97500.00 UNCH (0) ]

    Class B: [BRK.B 3247.00 -51.00 (-1.55%) ]


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  • WALL STREET JOURNAL: Kraft, Cadbury Close to $19 Billion Deal

    DANA CIMILLUCA, JEFFREY MCCRACKEN and ILAN BRAT

    JANUARY 19, 2010

    Kraft Foods Inc. was closing in on a deal late Monday to acquire Cadbury PLC for $19 billion, people familiar with the matter said, in a trans-Atlantic tie-up that would end the nearly 200-year independence of Britain’s most famous candy company.

    See how these global brands have evolved.

    After more than four months of public sparring that followed Kraft’s hostile-takeover approach for Cadbury, Kraft appeared to relent to the demands of Cadbury management and shareholders, sweetening its bid and adding cash. A deal is expected to be announced Tuesday morning, the people familiar with the matter said, adding that it was still possible the discussions could fall apart at the last moment.

    A deal would unite Cadbury, which focuses solely on candy and traces its roots to 1824, with its larger and more diversified U.S. counterpart. Kraft covets Cadbury in part because of the U.K. company’s access to fast-growing developing markets such as India and Brazil.

    The talks come as Kraft faces a deadline imposed by U.K. takeover authorities to make a final offer for Cadbury by the end of Tuesday. Cadbury has repeatedly rebuffed Kraft since the Northfield, Ill., company first publicly announced its offer in early September, which was then valued at about $16.5 billion.

    Kraft and Cadbury are discussing a deal that would value Cadbury at 850 pence ($14) a share, with about 500 pence worth coming in cash and the rest in Kraft shares, said people familiar with the matter. That would represent about a 5% premium over where Cadbury shares closed in London Monday. Many Cadbury shareholders in recent days have been vocal in their opposition to Kraft’s cash-and-stock offer, which until the weekend was valued at about 770 pence a share.

    They might now be won over by the new offer, since many of the holders are hedge funds that bought Cadbury stock after Kraft put the company in play, and are only looking for a relatively small return. A recommendation from Cadbury’s board is also likely to make a big difference in convincing long-term Cadbury shareholders, many of them big U.K. institutional investors, that selling to Kraft now is the right thing to do.

    The latest round of talks was initiated by Kraft on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    The move to engage with Kraft is an abrupt U-turn for Cadbury and its chairman, Roger Carr. He called Kraft a “low-growth conglomerate,” accused it of showing “contempt” for Cadbury shareholders with its initial offer price and asked those shareholders not to let their company be “stolen.” He and Cadbury Chief Executive Todd Stitzer have also criticized the track record of Kraft management, led by CEO Irene Rosenfeld. The two men repeatedly signaled that they would rather do a deal with Hershey Co., which they indicated would be a better cultural and operational fit for Cadbury.

    [cadbury1216] Bloomberg News

    A deal at $19 billion comes with significant risks for Kraft. Cross-border transactions have tended to fare poorly over the years. And Kraft’s own shareholders—including its largest holder, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway—have publicly worried about overpaying for Cadbury.

    Ms. Rosenfeld met with Mr. Buffett recently and he was “totally supportive” of the new terms, a person familiar with Kraft’s offer said. Mr. Buffett didn’t return calls requesting comment.

    Combining with Cadbury would catapult Kraft into the highest tier of the global confectionery industry, potentially expanding Kraft’s sales outside of North America and Europe. Already, Cadbury is the biggest confectioner in growth markets such as India, Mexico, Egypt and Thailand, according to consulting firm Euromonitor International, and emerging markets provide 38% of the company’s global sales, compared with about 20% at Kraft. Cadbury’s sales in the Asia-Pacific region alone amount to about 20% of the company’s revenue. Cadbury has about $500 million in sales in Mexico, while Kraft has about $350 million there, according to Barclays Capital analyst Andrew Lazar.

    Buying Cadbury would also add strong sales of chewing gum, especially in Latin America, to Kraft’s portfolio. Confectionary products typically have higher margins than Kraft’s company-wide margin.

    In addition, Kraft would be able to secure more sales at convenience stores in the U.S. and Europe, a growing outlet for selling food in small servings. The gum, chocolate and other food sold in those outlets tend to carry higher profit margins than food sold at a grocery store, and convenience stores typically carry few Kraft products. Grabbing hold of Cadbury would immediately give Kraft a potentially new, and more profitable, channel of distribution.

    “It’s a great deal for Kraft as it minimizes dilution of shareholders,” said William Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital Management, which owns about 2.2% of Kraft shares. “Cadbury could not have achieved the same values on its own.”

    Should the talks between Kraft and Cadbury prove successful, it is likely that Hershey, which has been considering a bid of its own, will drop out, said people close to the U.S. chocolate maker. A deal would largely consign Hershey to selling chocolate in the U.S., a country with a slow-growing population in the midst of deep economic turmoil. Without greater access to growth markets Hershey faces a future of sales and earnings growth largely dependent on price increases or cost cuts. A spokesman for Hershey declined to comment.

    For Mr. Carr, the Cadbury chairman, the current saga began at the Lisbon airport one Friday afternoon last August. On his personal mobile phone, he found a voice mail from Kraft CEO Ms. Rosenfeld asking him for a meeting in London the following week.

    When the two later met at Mr. Carr’s office, Ms. Rosenfeld surprised Mr. Carr by almost immediately announcing she had a proposal to make. What surprised him even more was that she expected a swift answer, he recalled. Mr. Carr said the price she had proposed was inadequate and that he needed to confer with Cadbury’s board. The meeting with Ms. Rosenfeld lasted a mere 20 minutes.

    “She got on her Gulfstream, she flew back to America and I never heard from her again —until the letter,” Mr. Carr recalled, referring to the Aug. 28 letter that put the iconic company on the block.

    —Cecilie Rohwedder contributed to this article.


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  • BUSINESSWEEK: Kraft Said to Be Nearing 12 Billion-Pound Takeover of Cadbury

    January 18, 2010, 09:05 PM EST

    By Zachary R. Mider

    Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) — Kraft Foods Inc. is close to an agreement to buy Cadbury Plc after raising its offer 9 percent to about 12 billion pounds ($19.7 billion) to overcome months of resistance by the U.K. chocolate maker, three people with knowledge of the matter said.

    Kraft is offering 840 pence a share, including 500 pence of cash and the rest in stock, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. Cadbury would be allowed to pay its holders an additional 10-pence dividend, the people said. Kraft’s previous bid valued Cadbury at 769 pence a share, below Cadbury’s closing share price of 808 pence yesterday.

    Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene Rosenfeld increased her bid after more than four months of pressure from Cadbury and its investors to boost the original offer, first disclosed in September. A purchase would create a company with about $50 billion in annual sales, adding Cadbury’s Trident gum and Creme Eggs to Kraft’s Oreo cookies, Toblerone chocolate and Tang powdered drinks.

    “850 in total, however they do it, would be acceptable to us,” said Jeffrey Scharf, president of Scharf Investments in Santa Cruz, California. His firm holds about 760,000 Cadbury shares. Scharf said he thought enough Cadbury shareholders would be likely to accept a bid at that level for Kraft to succeed.

    As recently as Jan. 14, Cadbury called Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft an “unfocused conglomerate” with businesses in “unappealing categories.” Kraft had to raise its bid to at least 850 pence to stand a chance of capturing Cadbury, a survey of nine Cadbury shareholders showed.

    Price Discipline

    The companies may make a joint announcement on a combination as early as tomorrow, the person said.

    Trevor Datson, a spokesman for Uxbridge, England-based Cadbury, and Michael Mitchell, a Kraft spokesman, declined to comment. The BBC reported the talks between the companies yesterday.

    Hershey Co., which had been considering a bid for Cadbury, is unlikely to top Kraft’s offer, people familiar with the matter said. Kirk Saville, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania- based candy maker, declined to comment.

    Rosenfeld vowed to be disciplined on the price for Cadbury. Billionaire investor William Ackman last week joined Warren Buffett, Kraft’s biggest shareholder, in saying Kraft risks diminishing the merits of a Cadbury takeover by issuing too much stock to pay for it.

    Buffett’s Stake

    Kraft has informed Buffett of the revised deal with Cadbury, one of the people said. Buffett didn’t immediately return a request for comment sent to his assistant, Debbie Bosanek. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said in a Jan. 5 statement it may support a Cadbury takeover if it concludes that the final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.”

    Kraft advanced 46 cents to $29.58 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Jan. 15. Based on that price, the original hostile offer of 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 Kraft share is more than 60 percent stock. Cadbury shareholders have the option to substitute as much as 60 pence of shares with cash. Kraft shares didn’t trade yesterday because of a holiday in the U.S.

    Earlier this month, Kraft said it would sell pizza brands including DiGiorno and Tombstone to Nestle SA and use proceeds from the $3.7 billion deal to boost the 300 pence cash component of its bid by the optional 60 pence.

    Kraft has until today under U.K. law to modify its offer, and until Feb. 2 to gain acceptance from a majority of Cadbury investors.

    “Kraft provides some strength in the U.S. that Cadbury doesn’t have, and Cadbury provides some strength internationally that Kraft doesn’t have,” said Don Yacktman, founder of Yacktman Asset Management Co., which holds Kraft shares.

    On Nov. 9, Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr said the company’s board “emphatically rejected this derisory offer.” In a Jan. 12 defense document, Cadbury said the Kraft offer was worth 12 times Cadbury’s 2009 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, while comparable deals in the industry valued the businesses at 14.3 times to 18.5 times.

    –With assistance from Duane Stanford in Atlanta and Andrew Cleary in London. Editors: Jennifer Sondag, Celeste Perri

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  • WALL STREET JOURNAL: Berkshire Nears Smaller Baby Bs

    JANUARY 18, 2010, 2:13 P.M. ET

    Warren Buffett is likely about to orchestrate one of the biggest changes the financial structure of his company has seen in years.

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is widely expected to approve a 50-to-1 share split of its Class B shares on Wednesday, a move tied to its planned purchase of the railroad giant Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

    With the split, trading volume will likely increase, and that could attract a new group of bigger and faster-trading investors. The B shares closed Friday at $3,247, a lofty price that limited the kind of investors who bought the stock to mostly those with a long-term performance view.

    The price of the stock will be about $65 after the split. There will be no change to the more exclusive Class A shares, which closed at $97,500 a piece Friday.

    About 36,000 B shares trade a day, on average. By comparison, about 6.4 million shares of International Business Machines trade a day. Only about 1,000 A shares change hands a day.

    Mr. Buffett in 1996 introduced the B shares, known “Baby Bs,” because some small investors unable to buy Berkshire’s high-priced shares were investing in funds that tried to mimic his investing strategy.

    Mr. Buffett famously quipped in a press release at the time that neither he nor Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger would purchase B shares, which don’t have voting rights, “nor would they recommend that their families or friends do so.”

    A new lower share price would mean the B shares could be eligible for inclusion in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. Standard & Poor’s has passed on the stock in the past because it “is not sufficiently liquid,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.

    If the B shares become part of the S&P 500, that will require index funds and other portfolio managers who track the index to purchase the stock, potentially giving it a one-time boost. The B shares have slipped 2% since the announcement of the Burlington deal in early November.

    Berkshire agreed in November to purchase the 77% of Burlington it didn’t already own by using a mix of cash and stock, and Mr. Buffett described the investment as an “all-in wager on the economic future of the United States.” He agreed to split the B shares so that smaller Burlington shareholders who want the tax benefit of maintaining an equity investment could accept Berkshire shares instead of cash.

    The share split took some Berkshire watchers by surprise. Mr. Buffett has long been a critic of share splits. In a 1983 shareholder letter, he wrote that a share split “would attract an entering class of buyers inferior to the exiting class of sellers.” In his 1992 letter, he wrote that “modest degradation would occur” if the company were to split its stock, because more short-term investors could buy it.

    Despite the magnitude of the move, it’s likely to have little impact on the overall financial health of Berkshire, analysts said. Says Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman, who tracks Berkshire: “In terms of thinking about the value of Berkshire, I don’t see it as a big issue.”

    Still, there is one perquisite some might find attractive: Class B shareholders can attend Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha, widely known as the Woodstock of capitalism and which last year attracted about 35,000 people.

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  • FINANCIAL TIMES: Swiss Re shifts business to Berkshire Hathaway

    By Haig Simonian in Zurich

    Published: January 18 2010 13:17 | Last updated: January 18 2010 13:17

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    Swiss Re said on Monday that it would release at least SFr300m ($292m) of capital by transferring a block of US life reinsurance business to Berkshire Hathaway, the US financial group controlled by Warren Buffett.

    The Swiss reinsurer, in which Mr Buffett has a stake, did not reveal any specific use for the capital released, but said it believed it could invest the money more profitably elsewhere.

    George Quinn, chief financial officer, said in a conference call that the transaction was not expected to have significant impact on profitability. Analysts broadly welcomed the release of capital and potential balance sheet strengthening.

    The Swiss group last year lost its place as the world’s biggest reinsurer and is still recovering from a testing period during which it posted heavy losses because of writedowns on investments and the severe impact of two disastrous structured credit default swaps for an unnamed client.

    The group, which last year switched chief executives, has since then adopted a much more cautious investment strategy but may have lost out on growth opportunities, analysts said.

    Mr Quinn disputed that the business being transferred was entirely unprofitable, but conceded that profitability had been “marginal”. He said the group had identified the block, all written before 2004, as unsatisfactory in subsequent profitability reviews, and for the past two to three years been considering options for transfer or divestment.

    “While the historical performance of the underlying block has been mainly positive, the business does not meet Swiss Re’s return hurdles,” the group said in slides to investors.

    “It’s a small piece of portfolio management, but it’s not life-changing for the firm”, said Mr Quinn.

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  • TRADING MARKETS: BYD: E6 Meets US Regulations

    BEIJING, Jan 18, 2010 (SinoCast Daily Business Beat via COMTEX) —

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    The E6, a pure electric vehicle (EV) model of BYD Co. Ltd. (SEHK: 1211), has met the laws and regulations of the US market, according to Li Zhuhang, general manager of BYD’s auto export division.

    At the end of 2010, the model will start trial marketing in California. The general manager did not tell its price and sales target, but sources guessed that the model would be sold at slightly higher than USD 40,000.

    Moreover, the Chinese company intends to export its double-mode EV model, the F6DM, to the US in 2011, whose selling price is a little lower than USD 30,000, previous reports said.

    At the 2010 North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), BYD, known as a battery maker and also engaged in automobile production, showed both the E6 and F3DM. Next year, the company will also take part in the NAIAS, with a larger exhibition area, stressed the general manager.

    Notably, Warren Buffet, who holds a 10% stake in the Hong Kong-listed company, will give a leg up to the future sale of the BYD E6 in the US, told Wang Jianjun, vice general manager of BYD Auto Sales Co., Ltd.

    In late 2009, an export executive at BYD said that the company would possibly regard Los Angeles as its main battlefield first of all, and then extend the E6 distribution to San Francisco. Finally, it will extend its sales network synchronously to Seattle, Chicago, New York, and Boston.

    BYD Auto, which is under the aegis of BYD, is known for its products with low displacement, but it has expanded its business into the medium-grade vehicle market these days.

    On October 26, 2009, the company’s first medium-grade car model, the G3, hit the market, rivaling some salable counterparts like Excelle, Elantra HDC, Lavida, and Cruze.

    BYD Auto aggregately sold 44,000 vehicles in September 2009, surging 88 percent from a year earlier and hitting a record high since its establishment in 2003.

    It is reported to have sold less than 100 F3DMs by the end of August 2009, and Morgan Stanley thought that the actual F3DM sales would fall far behind the goal of 3000 to 4000 ones set in early 2009.

    However, large Chinese automakers and regional government are still bullish on new energy vehicles. Experts warmed that the blind expansion of new energy vehicles would possibly lead to redundant construction and overcapacity.

    In December 2008, BYD Auto unveiled the F3DM EV in Shenzhen, south China, with its selling price fixed at CNY 149,800. Both the battery pack and gasoline engine are installed on the BYD F3DM EV, which is the world’s first EV independent of the professional charge stations, said Wang Chuanfu, president of BYD.

    (USD 1 = CNY 6.83)

    Source: thebeijingnews.com (January 18, 2010)

    For full details on (BYDDF) BYDDF. (BYDDF) has Short Term PowerRatings at TradingMarkets. Details on (BYDDF) Short Term PowerRatings is available at This Link.

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  • BLOOMBERG: Kraft’s ‘Wiggle Room’ to Win Cadbury Must Be in Cash

    By Duane D. Stanford, Andrew Cleary and Zachary R. Mider

    Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — Kraft Foods Inc., facing a deadline to make a revised bid for Cadbury Plc tomorrow, would have to use cash, rather than stock, for a higher offer to keep its own shareholders satisfied.

    Billionaire investor William Ackman last week joined Warren Buffett, Kraft’s biggest shareholder, in saying Kraft risks diminishing the merits of a Cadbury takeover by issuing too much stock to pay for it. Kraft’s 11 billion-pound ($17.9 billion) cash-and-stock bid values the U.K. chocolate maker at 771 pence a share, below today’s highest price for Cadbury of 808 pence.

    The deficit has left Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene Rosenfeld trying to win over Cadbury investors without alienating her own shareholders. Earlier this month, Kraft said it would sell pizza brands including DiGiorno and Tombstone to Nestle SA and use proceeds from the $3.7 billion deal to boost the 300 pence cash component of its bid by another 60 pence.

    “Any wiggle room you have has almost got to come from the cash side, not the stock side,” Donald Yacktman, founder of Yacktman Asset Management Co., which holds Kraft shares, said in a Jan. 15 telephone interview. “The issue has always been price. It’s not a matter of them being a terrible fit because I think they do fit.”

    Cadbury shares rose as much as 14.5 pence to 808 pence in London, the highest price since Dec. 1. They were up 11 pence, or 1.4 percent, to 804.5 pence as of 12:16 p.m. local time.

    ‘Extremely Undervalued’

    A takeover of Uxbridge, England-based Cadbury would give Kraft, the maker of Toblerone chocolate and Tang powdered drinks, a faster-growing business and access to emerging markets, such as India. The combined company would have about $50 billion in annual sales.

    Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP bought at least 32 million shares in Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, or 2 percent of the company, and plans to purchase more. The stock is “extremely undervalued,” Ackman said Jan. 15. Pershing’s stake in Kraft is now the firm’s biggest holding.

    “The more Kraft stock they issue, the less interesting this deal is,” Ackman said. “Fortunately, the seller also prefers cash.” The deal makes “tremendous sense,” Ackman added.

    Rosenfeld announced the additional cash component on Jan. 5, the same day Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said it voted against a plan to issue millions of shares to finance a Cadbury takeover. The proposal, which shareholders will vote on next month, amounts to a “blank check” to modify the bid, Berkshire said.

    ‘Compelling’ Offer

    Berkshire said it may support a Cadbury takeover if it concludes that the final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.”

    Kraft advanced 46 cents to $29.58 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Jan. 15. Based on that price, the hostile offer of 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 Kraft share is more than 60 percent stock. Cadbury shareholders have the option to substitute as much as 60 pence of shares with cash.

    Cadbury spokesman Trevor Datson declined to comment as did Kraft spokesman Michael Mitchell.

    Kraft must raise its bid by at least 10 percent to 850 pence to stand a chance of capturing the maker of Dairy Milk chocolate bars, a survey of nine Cadbury shareholders shows. Together they account for about 11 percent of the shares. Responses ranged from 800 pence to 900 pence.

    Standard Life

    A bid at 850 pence “would not secure support from companies like ourselves,” David Cumming, head of U.K. equities at Standard Life Investments, said today.

    “If Kraft want to get Cadbury they need to pay a full price to get long-term shareholders,” Cumming told the British Broadcasting Corp.’s Radio 4, according to an e-mailed transcript from Standard Life. “That price would have to be, in my view, above 9 pounds a share.” Standard Life said it holds less than 1 percent of Cadbury’s shares.

    Jeffrey Scharf, president of Scharf Investments in Santa Cruz, California, said 900 pence a share would be “compelling,” while an offer in the “low 800s” may struggle. Scharf Investments has about 760,000 Cadbury shares.

    “It’s more than a little ironic that Kraft sold its pizza business to Nestle for a higher multiple than they are willing to pay for Cadbury’s candy business,” Scharf said. “It’s not really a plausible, attractive offer.” Nestle said it paid 12.5 times earnings for the unit.

    ‘Derisory’ Offer

    Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr has repeatedly called Kraft’s offer “derisory.” He said on Jan. 14 that Hershey Co. recently reaffirmed its interest in the company and would transform itself into a global business by trumping Kraft’s bid.

    Hershey, the Pennsylvania-based chocolate maker that’s controlled by a charitable trust, was stepping up efforts last week to prepare a competing bid, people with knowledge of the matter said at the time. The company will make a decision on what to do after Kraft submits its final offer, the people said.

    Kraft may be able to increase the cash portion of its offer without further negotiations with its lenders. In addition to a 5.5 billion-pound bridge loan it’s getting from Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, and seven other banks, it has an agreement to borrow $3 billion, according to a Dec. 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Yacktman, the Kraft investor, said that he’s not opposed to a higher cash offer and thinks CEO Rosenfeld has left room to negotiate.

    “As long as the economics are satisfied rather than the egos, then it’s a good deal,” Yacktman said.

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  • MARKETWATCH: Cadbury investor wants much bigger payout

    LONDON (MarketWatch) — One of Cadbury’s top shareholders thinks the U.K. chocolate maker is worth more than $20 billion and wouldn’t back a takeover bid by Kraft Foods along the revised terms that have been reported in recent days.

    Speaking in an interview on BBC radio, David Cumming, Standard Life Investments’ head of U.K. equities, said Cadbury’s management team has done a good job and that Kraft would need to pay a “full price” to get long-term shareholders on its side.

    “The price in the press I noticed at the weekend, talking about 8 pounds to 8.5 pounds — that would not secure support from companies like ourselves,” Cumming said.

    Standard Life said it holds less than 1% of Cadbury shares. The firm is one of the top 20 investors in Cadbury according to figures from FactSet.

    The Sunday Times newspaper over the weekend reported that Kraft is preparing to raise its offer to around 820 pence a share ahead of Tuesday’s bid deadline.

    Its current offer is worth 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 of its own shares for every Cadbury shares. That valued the bid at 7.69 pounds a share, or around 10.6 billion pounds ($17.3 billion), at Friday’s closing Kraft price.

    Shares in Cadbury rose 1.4% on the London Stock Exchange Monday to 8.04 pounds.

    Cumming said he expects Kraft to raise its offer, because it needs Cadbury’s faster-growing chocolate and gum operations, as well as its presence in markets such as South America and Asia.

    “Kraft is currently a very sort of U.S.-centric amalgamation of relatively low growth businesses like processed cheese, instant coffee and the sort of biscuits you get at coffee mornings,” Cumming told the BBC.

    He also said that, even with a bid of around 9 pounds a share, Hershey could still make a counter-offer.

    The Wall Street Journal reported late Friday that Hershey plans to offer at least $17.9 billion for Cadbury this week, after concluding that it has the financial muscle to outbid Kraft.

    Hershey was working on a finance package including a loan of at least $10 billion from banks including J.P. Morgan Case and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the report said. It was also expected to include $5 billion in new Hershey shares and at least $3 billion from private investors.

    Buffett concerned

    While Cadbury’s shareholders have been demanding a better price for their stock, Kraft’s biggest investor — billionaire Warren Buffett — has threatened to vote against a deal if the company offers too many of its own shares.

    Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway said earlier this month that it would vote against the proposal to fund the takeover by issuing millions of new Kraft shares.

    Berkshire Hathaway said Kraft stock was a “very expensive currency” to use, though the investment firm added it could change its mind if it concludes the deal doesn’t destroy value. See story on Buffett’s concerns.

    The Observer newspaper reported that Kraft is considering sweetening its bid by adding an extra $1 billion in cash, which could lift the value to around 8.20 pounds a share without needing to issue more shares.

    Simon Kennedy is the City correspondent for MarketWatch in London.


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  • THE COLUMBUS DESPATCH: NetJets sees a bit of blue sky

    Chairman expects a profitable year, with stable staffing, perhaps growth through acquisition

    Monday, January 18, 2010 2:58 AM

    THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH

    If use of private jets is an indicator of the economy’s health, things are at least stabilizing.

    NetJets Chairman and CEO David Sokol predicted last week that the Columbus-based company will be profitable this year and that staffing levels will remain stable.

    Sokol, who took the reins of the company in August, said he feels “more optimistic” about the business than he did last fall, when the Berkshire Hathaway unit was cutting staff and selling planes in a bid to turn itself around.

    With 482 pilot furloughs taking effect last week and the rest of the company work force down 5 percent, or about 350 employees, from when he arrived, Sokol said he doesn’t anticipate any more layoffs. That’s “barring any major shifts in the global economy,” he added.

    NetJets will turn a modest profit this year, he said, after a 2009 loss of about $720 million. The majority of that loss was in write-downs on aircraft values, as a glut of planes for sale amid the recession brought prices crashing down.

    “On an operating basis, the last two months of 2009 were profitable,” he said.

    “Sales increased somewhat, and repurchases declined every month in 2009,” Sokol said. The company sells fractional ownership of private jets but sometimes buys back those timesharelike ownership stakes.

    Data from Aviation Research Group/U.S. shows that the private-jet industry is stabilizing. Fractional aircraft use increased steadily in late 2009 with a 21 percent increase in November over the same month in 2008.

    Despite encouraging signs of recovery, Sokol downplays the immediate bump in business that some observers have predicted would occur as recent terror-related incidents prompted tighter security measures for commercial air travel.

    “These types of incidents tend to put a negative view on travel in general,” he said.

    But that’s in the short term.

    Over the long term, what “drives business to us is the security factor, not the hassle factor. Businesses and high-net-worth individuals value the security of being on private aircraft.”

    Growth in other ways remains somewhat of a possibility for NetJets.

    Sokol said he’s been approached by a number of smaller competitors interested in selling their businesses to NetJets. He said there’s only “one potential deal” that’s being worked on, and it could occur in the coming weeks. He said that deal would involve NetJets taking on the customers of the other company.

    Other deals would have involved taking on more debt, something that’s not in NetJets’ plans.

    In fact, the company has been taking steps, including canceling plane orders and selling planes, to reduce its own debt, which was $1.8 billion as of the end of July. That resulted in a $400 million reduction from August through December last year, Sokol said, and he’s looking to reduce debt by $300 million this year, which would achieve a debt goal of $1.1 billion by year’s end.

    In all, Sokol said, he’s pleased with the progress in the business since he was dispatched by Berkshire owner Warren Buffett to take over NetJets last summer.

    “I feel really good about NetJets. I think we’re on a really solid foundation,” Sokol said. “I’m very happy with Columbus and the fact that we consolidated operations and brought the headquarters here.”

    The company always has had its operational base in Columbus but had maintained its administrative headquarters in New Jersey until last fall.

    A number of smaller competitors have approached NetJets about selling their businesses, he said.

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  • THE FIRST POST: Hershey to bid for Cadbury but Kraft remains favourite


    Overpayment likely as old-fashioned bidding war for Cadbury heats up

    By Edward Helmore
    L
    AST UPDATED 6:44 AM, JANUARY 18, 2010

    The battle for chocolate supremacy is set to take a new turn when Hershey bids at least $17.9 billion this week for Cadbury. The entry of the US chocolate giant into a bidding war for the British company comes as a deadline for Kraft to raise its $17.2 billion offer approaches.

    Kraft’s bid was undermined by shareholder Warren Buffett’s opposition to raise further financing through a share-offering.

    Hershey chief David West, who has been against the company’s bid for Cadbury, has been promised the chief executive slot of a combined company. As planned, Hershey will bid 800 pence to 820 pence a Cadbury share, compared to a 770 pence price now offered by Kraft.

    Cadbury shares, boosted by expectations of a Hershey bid, are currently trade at about 794 pence.

    But can Hershey succeed? Cadbury board members say they won’t recommend a price of less than 850 pence to shareholders. If Kraft raise their bid to 800 pence before the Tuesday deadline, Hershey will likely demur from entering the contest.

    Hershey can’t go above 850 without jeopardising it’s credit rating. Even Hershey’s former chief of acquisitions is doubtful about the financial wisdom of the bid. Cadbury’s price tag has already put off Italy’s Ferrero, maker of Ferrero Rocher chocolates.

    The Wall Street Journal says Kraft remains in the stronger position. Its market value is five times that of Hershey and the firm could, the paper says, “take this from a beatable bid to an unbeatable one”.

    As it stands, Cadbury is unlikely to accept Kraft’s bid either. “It materially undervalues Cadbury in our view and I think just about everyone’s,” says Peter Langerman, chief executive of Mutual Series, a subsidiary of Franklin Resources that owns more than 100 million Cadbury shares. “The owners of the company aren’t forced sellers. If there’s no deal, there’s no deal.”

    Two months into the Cadbury acquisition saga, the situation is clear to one fund manager: “I’d be surprised if somebody didn’t overpay.”

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  • MARKETWATCH: Swiss Re in $1.26 bln deal with Berkshire Hathaway

    By Simon Kennedy

    LONDON (MarketWatch) — Swiss Re said Monday that it’s agreed a resinsurance deal with Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway that the Swiss group said would help improve its capital efficiency. The firm said it will receive a ceding commission of 1.3 billion Swiss francs ($1.26 billion) for the deal, which involves reinsuring a closed block of yearly renewable term individual life reinsurance business with Berkshire Hathaway Life Insurance Co. Swiss Re said the deal will also free up around 300 million francs of capital. “This is a significant step forward in Swiss Re’s strategy to increase capital efficiency,” said Christian Mumenthaler, the group’s head of life and health. “The transaction puts us in an excellent position to redeploy the capital at more attractive returns,” he added.

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  • SHARE INVESTOR: Bitter – Sweet Chocolate Business


    The scramble for a king-size block of Cadbury PLC [CBRY.LSE] by Kraft Foods Inc [KFT.NYSE] fascinates me. I love business and investing but I have to confess also to be somewhat of a chocoholic – doctor it has been 3 minutes since my last bite. In a protracted bid that has been going since a formal offer by Kraft was made in November 2009 after it telegraphed interest in the Dairy Milk maker in September the takeover process has been full of harsh words, threats, finger pointing and egos from all sides of the chocolate vat.

    Since then Kraft has been rebuffed twice by Cadbury and those harsh words have been flowing like Cadbury Creme eggs between the CEO’S of Kraft and its sweet milky target Cadbury. Meanwhile Kraft’s biggest shareholder, Warren Buffett, has issued a press release urging Kraft not to pay too much for the company.

    In this sickly mix of nuts and fruits comes interest from just about every major chocolate company in the world. Ferrero Rocher, Nestle’, and Hershey have all been on the radar but all seem to have been dismissed as having short pockets or not serious, save for Hershey which seems to be mulling over a formal bid of its own according to some sources.

    The problem for Kraft is that Cadbury contend that its shares are worth more than what they are offering and Kraft’s bid significantly undervalues the long-term prospects of the company and they will have to increase their bid before the January 19 deadline if they want to take a chip off the Cadbury block.

    I have to agree with Cadbury. The company has a strong presense in most parts of the world and its brand and products – no matter what some might think of its sweet milky almost chocolate free taste – dominate the minds of consumers and their sweet ways when they make a decision to buy a quick convenient snack.

    This brand awareness has made Cadbury one of the worlds most successful chocolate makers in the past and that is unlikely to change any time soon.

    For these reasons alone Kraft need to raise their offer and any other company considering a move on Cadbury must also take into account the company and its fine pedigree.

    Warren Buffett, as a 10% holder of Kraft stock, was against Kraft’s bid principally because of its intention to issue new shares in Kraft to help pay for the purchase. I have just been reading Warren Buffett on Business: Principles from the Sage of Omaha, a collection of Warren Buffett’s letters to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders and he makes it very clear in a number of his letters that he is against the dilutionary effects of such transactions for the predator company if it doesn’t present value for the predator. Of course the price paid for the company is a key factor as well and if the price is right for the takeover then the preferred option of purchase for Buffett is cash and preferably non -borrowed cash at that.

    Cadbury would be a great company to own. Good cash flows, strong brands with a competitive moat and profit to boot.

    Any suitor will have to pay a premium to take control of the purple one and Buffett has stressed he doesn’t want Kraft to be that suitor but if he wants a piece of it – and I think he does – then Kraft and any other buyers are going to have to sweeten the deal beyond the current valuations put on Cadbury’s assets.

    I cant wait for the next move!

    Cadbury @ Share Investor

    Cadbury could learn a thing or two from 1980’s Coca Cola Experiment

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  • BUSINESSWEEK: Kraft’s ‘Wiggle Room’ to Win Cadbury May Have to Come From Cash

    By Duane D. Stanford, Andrew Cleary and Zachary R. Mider

    January 17, 2010, 08:40 PM EST

    Fishpond
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    Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) — Kraft Foods Inc., facing a deadline to make a revised bid for Cadbury Plc tomorrow, would have to use cash, rather than stock, for a higher offer to keep its own shareholders satisfied.

    Billionaire investor William Ackman last week joined Warren Buffett, Kraft’s biggest shareholder, in saying Kraft risks diminishing the merits of a Cadbury takeover by issuing too much stock to pay for it. Kraft’s 11 billion-pound ($17.9 billion) cash-and-stock bid values the U.K. chocolate maker at 771 pence a share, below Cadbury’s closing price of 794 pence on Jan. 15.

    The deficit has left Kraft Chief Executive Officer Irene Rosenfeld trying to win over Cadbury investors without alienating her own shareholders. Earlier this month, Kraft said it would sell pizza brands including DiGiorno and Tombstone to Nestle SA and use proceeds from the $3.7 billion deal to boost the 300 pence cash component of its bid by another 60 pence.

    “Any wiggle room you have has almost got to come from the cash side, not the stock side,” Donald Yacktman, founder of Yacktman Asset Management Co., which holds Kraft shares, said in a telephone interview Jan. 15. “The issue has always been price. It’s not a matter of them being a terrible fit because I think they do fit.”

    A takeover of Uxbridge, England-based Cadbury would give Kraft, the maker of Toblerone chocolate and Tang powdered drinks, a faster-growing business and access to emerging markets, such as India. The combined company would have about $50 billion in annual sales.

    ‘Extremely Undervalued’

    Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management LP bought at least 32 million shares in Northfield, Illinois-based Kraft, or 2 percent of the company, and plans to purchase more. The stock is “extremely undervalued,” Ackman said in a Jan. 15 interview. Pershing’s stake in Kraft is now the firm’s biggest holding.

    “The more Kraft stock they issue, the less interesting this deal is,” Ackman said. “Fortunately, the seller also prefers cash.” The deal makes “tremendous sense,” Ackman added.

    Rosenfeld announced the additional cash component on Jan. 5, the same day Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said it voted against a plan to issue millions of shares to finance a Cadbury takeover. The proposal, which shareholders will vote on next month, amounts to a “blank check” to modify the bid, Berkshire said.

    Berkshire said it may support a Cadbury takeover if it concludes that the final offer “does not destroy value for Kraft shareholders.”

    ‘Compelling’ Offer

    Kraft advanced 46 cents to $29.58 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Jan. 15. Based on that price, the hostile offer of 300 pence in cash and 0.2589 Kraft share is more than 60 percent stock. Cadbury shareholders have the option to substitute as much as 60 pence of shares with cash.

    Cadbury spokesman Trevor Datson declined to comment as did Kraft spokesman Michael Mitchell.

    Kraft must raise its bid by at least 10 percent to 850 pence to stand a chance of capturing the maker of Dairy Milk chocolate bars, a survey of nine Cadbury shareholders shows. Together they account for about 11 percent of the shares. Responses ranged from 800 pence to 900 pence.

    Jeffrey Scharf, president of Scharf Investments in Santa Cruz, California, said 900 pence a share would be “compelling,” while an offer in the “low 800s” may struggle. Scharf Investments has about 760,000 Cadbury shares.

    Higher Multiple

    “It’s more than a little ironic that Kraft sold its pizza business to Nestle for a higher multiple than they are willing to pay for Cadbury’s candy business,” Scharf said. “It’s not really a plausible, attractive offer.” Nestle said it paid 12.5 times earnings for the unit.

    Cadbury Chairman Roger Carr has repeatedly called Kraft’s offer “derisory.” He said on Jan. 14 that Hershey Co. recently reaffirmed its interest in the company and would transform itself into a global business by trumping Kraft’s bid.

    Hershey, the Pennsylvania-based chocolate maker that’s controlled by a charitable trust, was stepping up efforts last week to prepare a competing bid, people with knowledge of the matter said at the time. The company will make a decision on what to do after Kraft submits its final offer, the people said. The deadline for a Kraft bid is Jan. 19.

    Kraft may be able to increase the cash portion of its offer without further negotiations with its lenders. In addition to a 5.5 billion-pound bridge loan it’s getting from Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, and seven other banks, it has an agreement to borrow $3 billion, according to a Dec. 4 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    Yacktman, the Kraft investor, said that he’s not opposed to a higher cash offer and thinks CEO Rosenfeld has left room to negotiate.

    “As long as the economics are satisfied rather than the egos, then it’s a good deal,” Yacktman said.

    –With assistance from Christine Richard in New York. Editors: Jennifer Sondag, Celeste Perri

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  • THE MOTOR REPORT: BYD May Be Australia’s Second Chinese Carmaker: Report

    Jan 18th, 2010


    AUSTRALIA MAY SOON have a second Chinese carmaker entering the local market. News from Detroit this week suggests that China’s BYD is investigating its options here.

    With sales of over 450,000 cars in 2009, the Chinese carmaker is aiming for 800,000 sales in 2010. Speaking at Detroit, BYD’s exports boss Henri Li told press that BYD could arrive in Australia in two to three years.

    Mr Li said that BYD is in early discussion with potential importers, but that the lack of right-hand-drive models in the company’s line-up will delay its aspirations in the Australian market until around 2012 or 2013.

    Founded in 2003, BYD includes US investor Warren Buffet among its investors, the American injecting around $247 million into the company in 2009.

    Speaking with Fortune magazine last year, Buffet described BYD’s founder Wang Chuan-Fu as a combination of Thomas Edison and Fortune’s “Manager of the Century”: former GE boss Jack Welch.

    “[He is] something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it,” Buffet said.

    In January last year, BYD unveiled the F3DM hybrid, powered by a 1.0 litre petrol engine and an electric motor. With a combined output of 124kW and 400Nm of torque, BYD claims the F3DM can achieve a driving range of around 580km.

    BYD is not without its critics however. The company has been derided in the past for producing vehicles styled closely on the looks of models from manufacturers such as Mercedes-Benz and Toyota.

    The first Chinese carmaker to launch in Australia is Great Wall Motors, which introduced its X240 SUV and SA220 commercial utes locally last year.

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