Author: Darren Rickard

  • THE INDEPENDENT UK: Stephen Foley: Is this the last chapter of the Buffett story?

    Saturday, 13 February 2010

    Outlook: Are we entering the endgame for Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway?

    It might seem a strange thing to ask, since the Oracle of Omaha has never seemed so wise, or so desperately important for our times. The core of his homespun investment strategy – don’t invest in anything you don’t understand – is just the anti-venom needed for a financial system where untold dangers lurk within its complexity. If only, in 2002, we had heeded Mr Buffett’s warning that the real weapons of mass destruction were credit derivatives.

    He has never seemed so sprightly, either, by the way, even as he prepares to celebrate his 80th birthday this summer. Thousands of the faithful have already booked their hotels in Omaha for Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting, an event like nothing else in the corporate calendar, where they can again expect Mr Buffett to dispense his philosophical nuggets, coated in good humour.

    But what of the extraordinary hydra that he has created, Berkshire Hathaway? Part industrial conglomerate, part investment vehicle, and one of the biggest insurance groups in the world, it really is only held together by the force of Mr Buffett’s personality and the faith in him that leads investors to pay $115,000 (£73,000) a pop for a single share.

    Except that something changed last night: Berkshire Hathaway became a constituent of the S&P 500, and now goes into the portfolios of more than $1,000bn (£640bn) of investment funds that track the US index. For years, despite Berkshire growing to be one of the 20 largest companies on the stock market, S&P has not added its shares to the index because they were too illiquid. Not just the A shares with that jaw-dropping price tag, but also a second class of B shares, which were one-thirtieth of the value. As a side-effect of Berkshire’s biggest acquisition ever – of the US railway company Burlington Northern – the company split those B shares into 50 pieces, so it could pay Burlington shareholders in a currency that was more flexible.

    Mr Buffett never liked having to create B shares in the first place. Illiquidity is his friend, since it makes it harder for short-term speculators to play about with his share price. It follows that the greater liquidity of these B shares could become a nuisance, especially if a lot of A shareholders are tempted to convert, in order to sell some of their stake.

    I love attending Berkshire’s annual meeting in Omaha. It is a festival of financial literacy and education and, because Mr Buffett and his deputy, Charlie Munger, are the Bird and Fortune of investing, it is full of good jokes. But it is laced with intimations of the company’s ultimate end.

    Referring to the sheer size of the company, Mr Buffett is always clear about how its rate of growth will inevitably slow. One thing has magnified that recently: where Berkshire had been one of only a handful of global corporations with a gold-plated AAA credit rating, it has lost that status, making financing that bit more expensive.

    Leaving aside that shareholders would get more short-term value from breaking the company apart, since that would instantly put takeover premiums into the value of constituents from Fruit of the Loom clothing to the MidAmerican Energy utility, its companies separately could find longer-term growth opportunities by retooling their businesses independently.

    Mr Buffett is also honest about the investments that sit inside Berkshire, with substantial minority holdings of American Express, Coca-Cola and Kraft, among others. He always tells shareholders that the most tax-efficient way for them to get access to these stocks is to buy them themselves, raising the question of why they should be part of a publicly traded conglomerate at all.

    I have always assumed that Berkshire will fall apart under the weight of these contradictions if ill-health forces Mr Buffett to stand aside. With the stock split and the entry to the S&P 500, his options for running Berkshire as a quasi-private company might become more limited and speculators will be able to get a toehold. I wonder if the endgame may come sooner than anyone expects.

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  • CNBC: Pisani: Berkshire B in the S&P Today — What to Expect

    Published: Friday, 12 Feb 2010 | 10:49 AM ET

    By: Bob Pisani
    CNBC Reporter

    Expect a little more volume than normal Friday: Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares are going into the S&P 500 today. This is attracting an unusual amount of interest from the trading community, due to the large size of the addition. About $1 trillion is indexed to the S&P 500.

    Keefe, Bruyetee & Woods estimates that 177 million shares of Berkshire [BRK.B 76.9189 0.2289 (+0.3%) ] will need to be bought by S&P 500 index funds at the close today. That is close to $13 billion, and about 15 times normal volume for Berkshire.

    Indexers will thus need to BUY Berkshire in very large quantities, and SELL the remaining stocks in the S&P 500, in proportion to their market capitalization.

    Judging by the recent volume, some traders have been accumulating Berkshire recently in hopes of selling them to indexers at the close. Indexers of course are aware of this (this is a very old game) and, depending on how their rules are constructed, may be buying ahead as well.

    In general, the tendency for large additions such as this is to create a huge amount of volume but not too much in the way of price volatility.

    Berkshire Class A Today: [BRK.A 115326.0078 376.01 (+0.33%) ]

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  • THE STREET.COM: Buffett Becomes Biggest Munich Re Buyer

    By Eric Rosenbaum 02/12/10 – 10:14 AM EST

    OMAHA, Neb. (TheStreet) — Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B Quote) are now the biggest shareholders in Munich Re, eclipsing the previously biggest stake in the reinsurance company held by money manager BlackRock(BLK Quote).

    Last month, Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it had built a 3% stake in Munich Re.

    Buffett isn’t done yet, either, in building up his stake in Munich Re. A regulatory filing indicates that Berkshire Hathaway has options on another 2% of Munich Re that can be exercised by March 11, taking Berkshire’s holding in the reinsurer to 7%.

    Munich Re management said they do not view the big recent moves from Buffett into their stock as a hostile maneuver.

    Buffett already owns 3% of Swiss Re, and Berkshire Hathaway has a long-time strategy of using the spread between the cost of insurance premiums and the return on equity from reinvestment of premium income to generate profits for Berkshire investors.

    Berkshire also announced in January that it had acquired for, $1.3 billion, a block of reinsurance premiums from Swiss Re in the range of $50 billion to $60 billion.

    While Munich Re does not view the move as hostile — and street analysts have concurred with this view — Berkshire also began its investment in Burlington Northern(BNI Quote) with a an 11% stake in April 2007, and is in now in the final stages of acquiring the railroad operator.

    Longtime Berkshire investors have also been wondering whether the Burlington deal with be the last major M&A move of Buffett’s career, or if the Oracle of Omaha has another big surprise in store for shareholders in the coming years.

    — Reported by Eric Rosenbaum in New York.


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  • BLOOMBERG: Buffett Covers Dinner Tab for Fund Manager Who Shared Research

    By Tom Cahill

    Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) — It’s usually the investor who pays to share a meal with Warren Buffett. Not so for hedge-fund manager Cara Goldenberg.

    The 29-year-old New Yorker sent her stock research to the 79-year-old chairman and chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in November with a note saying she’d heard he likes to spend the Thanksgiving weekend scouring for investment ideas. Buffett was intrigued enough to invite her and her business partner, Alex Duran, to his headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska, for a chat and dinner, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting.

    Sharing research got Goldenberg an audience for which some have gladly paid hard cash. A steakhouse lunch with Buffett, the second-richest American after Microsoft Corp.’s Bill Gates, raised $1.68 million in a June auction for a San Francisco charity. The winning bid in 2008 was $2.1 million, the highest since Buffett began the annual lunches in 2000.

    “She hit the jackpot,” said Frank Betz, partner at Warren, New Jersey-based Carret Zane Capital Management LLC, who has invested with Berkshire Hathaway for more than two decades. “It’s praise from Caesar, of course.”

    Goldenberg, co-founder of 18-month-old New York-based Permian Investment Partners LP, and Buffett declined to comment. The fund manager’s profile on social-networking site FaceBook features a picture of her holding a grinning Buffett’s wallet.

    Goldenberg got her undergraduate degree in chemistry in 2002 from Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut. Her first job out of college was working as a private-equity analyst at New York-based investment bank Morgan Stanley.

    Highbridge, Brahman

    She jumped to Highbridge Capital Management LLC, the hedge- fund firm owned by JPMorgan Chase & Co., in 2003, and to Brahman Capital Corp., also in New York, a year later. She became that firm’s youngest partner, and oversaw a $2 billion European equity portfolio. She and two former Brahman colleagues started Permian with about $65 million in assets in August 2008 and it now manages about $100 million.

    Permian, which is named for the geologic period that ran from about 290 million to 250 million years ago, focuses on what it deems undervalued companies, mostly in Western Europe. The research she sent to Buffett included the rationale behind the top 10 stocks in her portfolio, said the people, who asked not to be identified because they were told the information in confidence.

    Goldenberg declined to discuss her investment returns or the stock ideas she shared with Buffett.

    Buffett’s Investing Roots

    Buffett favors stocks of companies that he believes have long-term advantages over competitors, and he has become the largest investor in Coca-Cola Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and American Express Co.

    He has turned Berkshire from a maker of suit-linings into a conglomerate with a market value of more than $170 billion and businesses ranging from insurance to ice cream. His home-spun wisdom and financial success has turned the company’s annual meeting into a multiday pilgrimage, with a record 35,000 attending last May.

    Buffett’s first solo investing venture was a hedge fund.

    In May 1956, at 25, he started Buffett Associates Ltd. with friends and family as investors, according to “The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life,” by Alice Schroeder. That fund was rolled into a separate hedge fund called Buffett Partnership Ltd., which was dissolved in 1970, according to a Fortune article from January of that year by Carol Loomis titled “Hard Times Come to the Hedge Funds.” He’s led Berkshire since 1970.

    Buffett has said he invests based on the principle of being fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. He says his ideal investment horizon is “forever.”

    ‘Good Guys’

    One manager who received accolades from Buffett was Walter Schloss, now 93, who like Buffett once worked for the late Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, before starting his own firm in 1955. Buffett, in Berkshire’s 2006 letter to shareholders, called Schloss “one of the good guys on Wall Street,” adding that he and his son Edwin produced returns that “dramatically surpassed” those of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

    “We definitely got calls after that,” Edwin Schloss said in an interview. “Over the years, because Warren was enthusiastic about Walter and the approach we used, we did pick up a number of clients.”

    The father and son team had closed their investment partnership in 2002 — several years before Buffett’s letter — having decided that stock valuations had gotten too high. The partnership, Walter and Edwin Schloss Associates LLP, generated average annual returns exceeding 18 percent during its 47 years of existence, Edwin said in the interview.

    Piles of Mail

    Some who have worked with Buffett have also started their own investing ventures. Ian Jacobs, who worked at Berkshire from 2003 to 2009 on investment research and other projects, last March started 402 Fund LP, an Omaha-based fund that focuses on U.S. equity investments. Jacobs declined to provide returns.

    Betz of Carret Zane, who has corresponded with Buffett over the years, said he’d been told the CEO gets more than 100 letters a day, and reads them all.

    “I don’t know how many times a note to Warren Buffett results in an invitation to come to Omaha,” said Betz.

    As for Goldenberg’s: “Boy, it must’ve been one heck of a letter.”

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  • FINANCIAL TIMES: BNSF chief hits at short-termism

    By Robert Wright, Transport Correspondent

    Published: February 12 2010 02:41 | Last updated: February 12 2010 02:41

    The chief executive of North America’s second-biggest railway company has criticised stock market analysts’ short-termism as he prepares to delist the company following its takeover by Warren Buffett.

    Matthew Rose, chief executive of Burlington Northern Santa Fe, said it could be frustrating dealing with quarterly earnings announcements when the company’s investments were far longer term.

    Berkshire Hathaway, the investment vehicle for Mr Buffett, the world’s most successful investor, announced in November that it was offering cash and shares for the 77.4 per cent of BNSF it did not already own. The deal, Mr Buffett’s biggest-ever takeover, values BNSF at $44bn.

    The deal is due to go through on Friday after shareholders on Thursday voted overwhelmingly to accept the offer.

    Mr Rose said BNSF’s locomotives lasted 20 years and trackwork 30 to 40 years, but analysts lacked a long-term perspective.

    “That’s something our country really has lost sight of,” he said after the shareholder meeting.

    Mr Buffett tended to see the wider picture beyond an individual quarter’s results, he said.

    “This team will always be very performance-driven and we will be looking to put up great numbers in terms of running these assets,” Mr Rose went on. “But we will not be worried necessarily about an individual quarter.”

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  • WALL STREET JOURNAL: America Lines Up for Piece of Buffett

    On Friday, millions of Americans will for the first time own a piece of Warren Buffett.

    Mr. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., whose multi-thousand-dollar share price made it a thinly traded luxury of wealthy investors and institutions, is going mainstream as it joins the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index.

    More than $1 trillion of investor money directly tracks the index. The result is a scramble for Berkshire shares by index funds that, by one estimate, will reach $14 billion of buying. This further exposes Berkshire stock to the stratagems of fast-moving traders, a brand of investor anathema to Mr. Buffett’s general buy-and-hold approach.

    Small-time investors, meanwhile, will finally be getting a piece of Mr. Buffett just as uncertainty builds about the future of his $178 billion conglomerate, which is one of the largest public companies in the U.S., selling everything from insurance to underwear. The 79-year-old Mr. Buffett is entering the twilight of his career, and little is known about his succession plans, other than that he has placed the name of his replacement in an envelope he keeps in his office.

    Yet small investors are likely soon to have billions of dollars more in Berkshire stock, thanks both to its entry into the index and to a recent stock split.

    Berkshire has long had two classes of stock. It split the lower-priced of these, known as the B shares, 50 to 1, making them affordable to more individual investors.

    Joel Nath, a 25-year-old accountant who participates in an investment club called “Scratch & Win,” always wanted to buy some Berkshire. The late-January split put the B shares, commonly known as Baby B’s, within his reach. He bought nine at $73 each. (They closed Thursday at $76.69.)

    Mike Kane for The Wall Street Journal

    Floyd Jones, who has long put his investment clients n Berkshire Hathaway, remains a supporter of the stock.

    Mr. Nath, who lives and works in Omaha, Neb., where Berkshire is based, was turned on to investing at a young age by his grandmother, Marlene Matney. While baby-sitting for him and his two brothers, Ms. Matney, now 78, taught them to look at ticker symbols on television when they were learning the alphabet.

    More recently, Ms. Matney was disappointed when she wasn’t allowed to join “Scratch & Win,” because the investment club didn’t want two members from the same family. But she still has an edge. In the aftermath of the stock split, Mr. Nath and his brothers all bought shares for more than $70 each, Ms. Matney said, “but they didn’t know that I waited until it went down.” She bought hers for $68.

    Sensing opportunity in Berkshire’s move to the S&P 500 index, hedge-fund manager Jonathan Carmel has already made his move to play the stock.

    In early November, when Berkshire first said it would split its Class B shares as part of a $26 billion deal to purchase Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp., he raced to crunch the numbers on how Berkshire’s share price might be affected.

    Conventional wisdom holds that the flood of purchase orders from fund managers with portfolios tied to the S&P 500 will drive up the price of Berkshire shares as the markets close Friday. Both the A and B shares would appear to be proving the theory correct: They are up more than 10% since the stock split.

    Realizing that the split made Berkshire a likely candidate for the S&P 500, Mr. Carmel calculated how big a weighting the company would be in the index. From there, he estimated that maybe $40 billion in investor capital might flow into the stock, and began scooping up the higher-priced Class A shares for about $100,000 apiece. (There’s no affordability issue for an institutional investor.)

    His expectation was for a 20% pop in Berkshire stock as the S&P addition neared; so far, he is more than halfway there. The A shares closed at $114,950 Thursday.

    FOR BERKSHIRE: Berkshire Heads for S&P 500

    Mike Kane for The Wall Street Journal

    A bobble-head of Warren Buffett stands on a shelf in the Seattle office of Steven Jones of First Washington Corp.

    On Thursday, Berkshire shares gained 3% on the New York Stock Exchange.

    Berkshire is expected to make up about 1.4% of the S&P 500, although the figure could change based on Friday’s trading. Other funds that closely follow the index are likely to buy billions more, pushing the amount closer to the estimate of Mr. Carmel, whose fund is Carmel Asset Management.

    A continued upswing would allow speculative traders who recently bought Berkshire shares to flip them for a profit to index managers. But that isn’t guaranteed. “Some traders will buy now and try to sell on the close,” said Tom Joyce, chief executive of the trading firm Knight Capital Group. “But if everybody does that, then there’s nothing to buy. Then you have a surprise on the other side of the trade, meaning the close is lower.” Mr. Joyce’s traders estimated that of about 160 million B shares that index managers will need to buy, half have already been snapped up.

    Buffett by the Numbers

    11: Number of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders with more than 4,000 of its Class A shares

    $1 trillion: Money in stock-index mutual funds that track the S&P 500

    1.4%: Berkshire’s chunk of the overall S&P 500

    15: Rank in stock-market value among S&P 500 companies

    Sources: LionShares; Standard & Poor’s

    Berkshire’s B shares, which traded an average of 36,000 shares a day before the split, spiked to 23 million shares of trading volume on Thursday. As of Feb. 9, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation was the issue’s largest holder, with a 10.5% stake, followed by Mr. Buffett, with a 10.1% stake, according to data from FactSet Research Systems Inc.

    A typical new S&P component stock would be heavily traded for three to five days before it joins the index, traders say, with volume spikes at the open and close of trading on the final day or two. Since Berkshire trading jumped dramatically after the Class B stock split and the S&P announcement, though, there’s talk that Friday’s traffic could be lighter than expected.

    The jockeying among hedge-fund pros hasn’t stopped smaller players from making a grab at Berkshire B shares.

    Retail brokers like 82-year-old Floyd Jones, who has been recommending Berkshire to his clients for decades, advocated adding to Berkshire positions.

    An investment in the company “will be paying off for many years to come,” Mr. Jones said. He and his son Steve Jones, who works two doors down from him at the small brokerage firm First Washington Corp., believe they and their clients together have one of the largest concentrations of Berkshire shares in the Seattle area.

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  • CNN MONEY: Buffett’s Baby Berkshires: Buy or bust?


    Berkshire Hathaway chairman and CEO Warren Buffett may find a new class of loyal
    followers now that his B shares are more affordable.

    By Paul R. La Monica, editor at large

    NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — To borrow a tag line from one of Warren Buffett’s most well-known companies, buying Berkshire Hathaway is now so easy, even a caveman can do it.

    Berkshire, the investment arm of the Oracle of Omaha and parent company of auto insurance giant Geico, used to be a stock that average investors could only fantasize about owning.

    Well, you can stop dreaming. The company’s B shares (BRKB) currently trade at the bargain basement price of $74 and change. Of course, you probably still can’t afford the company’s A stock (BRKA, Fortune 500), which fetches more than $111,000 a share.

    But the “cheaper” Baby Berkshire shares, which had been trading around $3,500 a few weeks ago, are now within reach of Main Street investors thanks to a 50-for-1 stock split back on Jan. 21.

    Berkshire decided to split its shares, despite Buffett’s long-held stance that he would never do so, after the company announced last year that it was purchasing railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI, Fortune 500). Shareholders of BNSF approved the deal Thursday.

    So is it still a good time to bet on Buffett? The B shares have shot up 7% since the split — a period when the broader market has been rocked by concerns about the debt crisis in Europe and continued job losses in the U.S. The S&P 500 is down more than 5% during the same time frame.

    It’s important to remember that a stock split does nothing to change a company’s fundamentals. It’s really a psychological boost more than anything else. Sure, it costs less to buy one share than it used to, but the value of Berkshire remained the same.

    If you owned 1 share before the split, you wound up getting 50 shares that suddenly were 1/50th of the previous price. So one share at the pre-split price of $3,476 simply became 50 shares worth $69.52 each.

    But the split set the stage for perhaps the main reason Berkshire has not fallen victim to the recent market jitters. The stock received a nice pop after Standard & Poor’s announced the B shares would replace Burlington in the S&P 500.

    One of the criteria for being added to this index is that the stock must be widely available. Prior to the split, there were not enough shares of Berkshire trading on the market to merit its inclusion in the S&P 500.

    The stock rose 5% following the announcement. Companies usually experience a pop on the news that they will be added to the S&P 500 because money managers that run index funds tied to this benchmark need to own it.

    Berkshire will be officially added to this blue-chip index after the close of trading Friday, once the Burlington deal actually is completed. So there could still be a lot of buyers who could propel the stock further in the short term.

    Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Melissa Roberts wrote in a report this week that she estimates S&P 500 index funds will need to buy between 161 million and 177 million Berkshire B shares.

    Did ratings agencies go off the rails?

    But what about Berkshire beyond the next few weeks? Credit rating agencies have been expressing concerns about Berkshire’s railroad bet as well and other deals that are turning the company away from its traditional insurance roots. As such. Berkshire no longer holds a prized AAA credit rating.

    Analysts at credit rating firm Fitch wrote in a report Wednesday that Burlington, as well as the utilities and financial companies it owns, have “comparatively lower credit quality” than Berkshire’s insurance operations and other investments. Fitch also said the non-insurance businesses “often have greater sensitivity to general economic conditions.”

    In addition to insurers Geico and General Re, Berkshire’s insurance unit includes the stakes it owns in prominent U.S. firms such as Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and Kraft (KFT, Fortune 500).

    Outside of the insurance and investment business, Berkshire also owns utility MidAmerican, which got a lot bigger when it bought Constellation Energy in 2008, transportation leasing firm Xtra, and several well-known consumer brands such as Dairy Queen, Fruit of the Loom and carpet maker Shaw.

    But Glenn Tongue, managing partner with T2 Partners, a money manager that counts Berkshire as its largest holding, said he thinks Fitch and fellow rating agencies S&P and Moody’s shouldn’t be worried about Berkshire focusing less on insurance.

    He pointed out that the company’s operating businesses have actually enjoyed stronger levels of profit growth over the past few years than the insurance and investment businesses. Tongue added that the Burlington deal will not create a bigger cash burden on the firm.

    “This is an extremely high-quality company with an incredibly strong balance sheet. Berkshire is a triple-A company based on its fundamentals and managerial mind set,” he said. “We think that Moody’s and S&P have it wrong, and we think they will eventually figure out they have it wrong.”

    Tongue said he isn’t holding out for a credit upgrade anytime soon, but added that even without the AAA rating, the increase to Berkshire’s borrowing costs would be “immaterial.” With that in mind, he said the stock looks to be trading about 30% below what his firm believes it is worth.

    So now that you don’t need a winning lottery ticket in order to afford Berkshire, it looks like the B shares may continue to be a good investment.

    — The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. To top of page

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  • CNBC: Burlington Northern Shareholders Prefer (Slightly) Berkshire Stock

    Published: Thursday, 11 Feb 2010 | 10:12 AM ET

    By: Alex Crippen
    Executive Producer

    In “extremely preliminary” results announced this morning, Burlington Northern shareholders show a slight preference for Berkshire Hathaway stock, rather than cash, as payment in the proposed Berkshire-BNSF merger.

    A Berkshire news release says that as of yesterday’s election deadline, ‘stock’ was ahead of ‘cash’ 43.36 percent to 40.85 percent. The remaining BNSF shares are classified as “No election.”

    BNSF shareholders could choose either cash, Berkshire stock, or a mix.

    The news release says the early results are being released at the request of the NYSE. It notes they are “subject to proration and reallocation so as to achieve as closely as practicable the 60/40 cash-stock split” called for in the merger agreement.

    Final “results of the election process” will be announced tomorrow when the deal closes, assuming Burlington Northern shareholders approve the merger at their special shareholders meeting later today.

    As of right now (10:10a ET), Burlington Northern shares are trading at $100.23, above the $100/share merger price. Right now: [BNI 100.23 0.27 (+0.27%) ]

    Current Berkshire stock prices:

    Berkshire Portfolio

    Class A: [BRK.A 112756.00 1206.00 (+1.08%) ]

    Class B: [BRK.B 75.1899 UNCH (0) ]

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  • RTT NEWS: Burlington Shareholders Approve Sale To Berkshire – Quick Facts

    2/11/2010 11:00 AM ET

    (RTTNews) – Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI: News ) said Thursday that its shareholders have voted in favor of the company’s acquisition by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, BRK.B).

    Preliminary results show that about 70% of Burlington Northern Santa Fe issued and outstanding shares not owned by Berkshire or its affiliates were voted in favor of the deal, above the 66-2/3% required. Additionally, holders of at least a majority of the issued and outstanding shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe voted in favor.

    The deal is expected to close on February 12.

    In early November, Berkshire Hathaway agreed to buy the remaining 77.4% of Burlington Northern Santa Fe that it does not already own for $100 per share in cash and stock. Based on the number of outstanding Burlington shares, including shares currently owned by Berkshire, on Nov. 2, the deal is valued at about $44 billion, including $10 billion of outstanding Burlington debt. The deal has since received U.S. antitrust clearance.

    Click here to receive FREE breaking news email alerts for Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp and others in your portfolio

    by RTT Staff Writer

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  • ABC NEWS: Berkshire Set to Buy Burlington Northern After Shareholder OK

    By Jonathan Stempel

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp shareholders approved the No. 2 U.S. railroad company’s takeover by Berkshire Hathaway Inc , clearing the way for the largest acquisition of billionaire investor Warren Buffett to be completed on Friday.

    Berkshire is buying the 77.4 percent of Burlington Northern that it did not already own. The cash-and-stock transaction was valued at $26.4 billion, or $100 per share, and valued all Burlington Northern at about $34 billion.

    “Tomorrow begins the first century of ownership of BNSF by Berkshire Hathaway,” Buffett, 79, said in a statement. “I’m looking forward to every day of it as our railroad does its part to ensure the future prosperity of the country.”

    The roots of Fort Worth, Texas-based Burlington Northern date back to 1849.

    Of the Burlington Northern shares not owned by Berkshire, about 70 percent were voted for the merger, exceeding the needed two-thirds approval.

    Berkshire said holders of 40.9 percent of the shares chose to swap them for cash, 43.4 percent chose stock, and the rest made no choice. Berkshire targeted a 60/40 cash-stock split.

    Based in Omaha, Nebraska, Berkshire owns roughly 80 other businesses that sell such products as Geico car insurance, Dairy Queen ice cream and Fruit of the Loom underwear.

    Last month it conducted a 50-for-1 split of its Class B shares, which traded around $3,400, to let Burlington Northern shareholders do stock swaps rather than be forced to cash out and pay taxes. Higher-priced Class A shares were not split.

    The takeover has already cost Berkshire its last “triple-A” credit rating, in part because it is a big bet that could weigh on capital and eats up a good chunk of cash.

    Fitch Ratings, the first major credit agency to take away its triple-A rating, downgraded Berkshire again on Wednesday.

    Berkshire’s largest previous acquisition was its 1998 takeover of the reinsurer General Re.

    UP TO THE HILT

    Last month, Burlington Northern posted a 13 percent drop in quarterly profit that nonetheless topped analyst forecasts.

    The takeover means the company will no longer need to report stand-alone quarterly results.

    That is a relief to Chief Executive Matthew Rose, who said it can be “frustrating” having to cater in part to investors focused on the short term.

    “What our team is doing today really won’t be felt in terms of capital spending for five or seven, or even 10 or 15 years and beyond,” he said on a Thursday conference call. “Warren has a great reputation for looking past the quarters.”

    Buffett is the world’s second-richest person and perhaps its most admired investor. He has sought to justify what he called paying “up to the absolute hilt” for Burlington Northern.

    “If you look at the next 50 years, this country is going to grow, it’s going to have more people, it’s going to have more goods moving, and rail is the logical way for many of those goods to travel,” he told the company’s employees in December.

    Berkshire will replace Burlington Northern in the Standard & Poor’s 500 <.SPX> index.

    In late morning trading, Burlington Northern shares were up 26 cents at $100.22, Berkshire Class A shares were up $362 at $111,912, and Berkshire Class B shares were up 18 cents at $74.60.

    (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel, editing by Matthew Lewis)

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  • Everything Warren Buffett 2010-02-11 12:39:00


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  • STAR TELEGRAM: BNSF buyout set to be completed today

    Posted Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2010

    Shortly after 9 a.m. today, Burlington Northern Corp., the parent company of the vast BNSF Railway Co., will become a part of the Warren Buffett empire.

    That’s when the formal shareholder vote on the proposed $26.3 billion acquisition of Burlington Northern by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway will take place at BNSF headquarters.

    Approval of the deal, in which Berkshire is paying $100 a share in cash and stock, should be little more than a legal formality.

    “It won’t be a very long meeting,” said John Ambler, vice president of corporate relations for BNSF.

    It should be business as usual afterward, Ambler said. Buffett is not expected to make an appearance, and no ceremonies or other events are scheduled. BNSF CEO Matt Rose is planning to hold a brief news conference.

    The deal, announced Nov. 3 by the two companies, marks the end of the line for BNSF as an independent, publicly held corporation.

    But when the deal was announced, Buffett and Rose said the sale will have little effect on the way the railroad operates and its Fort Worth presence. Rose said his instructions from Buffett were “to run this business like a 100-year family business and try to make it better every day.”

    Buffett has described his decision to acquire BNSF as “an all-in bet” on the railroad “and the economic future of the United States.”

    “It’s an absolutely essential business that will prosper as America prospers,” Buffett said. “Matt Rose and his team have done a wonderful job of running that company. They’re an extremely well-run railroad.”

    Buffett said he’s optimistic about the growth prospects of railroads because of the low cost and high energy efficiency they provide in moving heavy raw materials and industrial goods.

    Burlington Northern earned $1.7 billion on revenue of $14 billion in 2009. The railroad employs about 38,000 people across the country, including about 3,300 in the Fort Worth area.

    Numerous lawsuits challenging the merger on grounds that the price was inadequate were filed within days of the deal’s announcement. But Buffett said he would not increase his offer, and the litigation was settled after BNSF and Buffett made further disclosures of the terms.

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  • CAIXIN ONLINE: How Manufacturing’s Mockingbird Sings

    By staff reporters Liang Dongmei, Yang Binbin, Fu Yanyan and Wang Duan

    10.02.10 19:21

    From batteries to cars, BYD engineers have found that successful product manufacturing begins by copying others

    (Caixin Online) Auto technician Li Xuelin never dreamed of dismantling his boss’ Mercedes Benz S300. But one day, that’s exactly what the boss ordered Li and a half-dozen colleagues to do.

    It wasn’t easy. At first, the technicians just stood beside the shiny black car, daring not to touch it. But eventually their boss and BYD CEO Wang Chuanfu broke the stalemate.

    Wang stepped up to the car and, with sweat on his brow, gouged the paint job with a car key. “Now you can start,” he said.

    Li’s team disassembled the car, piece by piece, to reverse engineer the luxury car’s electronic control system. It was a painstaking but money-saving project that’s now become a trademark for Wang and BYD, a highly successful Chinese manufacturer that’s proud to be a master copyist.

    Since its launch in 1995, BYD has expanded from OEM battery manufacturing into various unrelated fields including IT products, autos and new energy. Li’s experience with reverse engineering Wang’s Benz has been repeated at many levels by BYD’s army of about 30,000 engineers and technicians.

    By reverse engineering products made by others, BYD pushed its way into manufacturing production, eventually expanding upstream and downstream in chosen fields to build a profitable, vertically integrated enterprise. BYD won big wherever its elbows went.

    BYD’s success as a revolutionary copyist has drawn mixed reactions, but of course business champions seldom pay heed to grumblings from those they defeat. When carmaking, for example, BYD found that reverse engineering can cut the cost of a new vehicle by more than one-third.

    BYD-Style Imitation

    Last May, the city of Xian started switching its taxi fleet to the BYD F3 car, which at first glance could be confused with a Toyota Corolla. Indeed, the F3 is an inside-outside copy of the Japanese manufacturer’s small car but costs only half as much.

    BYD isn’t shy about its business practices. In the F3’s introductory period, the company marketing department touted Corolla similarities as a sales point. At some service centers in the city of Zhengzhou, F3 owners could spend a few hundred yuan to have the exterior badge swapped with a Toyota logo. And last year, after just five years in production, annual F3 sales reached 300,000 units, making it one of China’s best-selling cars.

    To develop good cars in the shortest time possible, BYD spends tens of millions of yuan every year buying and then dismantling the newest models built by manufacturers around the world.

    That’s also how Wang set up the company’s first battery production line. In those early years, a fully automated Ni-Cd battery production line from Sanyo cost tens of millions of yuan, so Wang decided to make one himself. He reverse-engineered the setup for an identical production line that cost only about 1 million yuan.

    Wang decided to move into autos in 2002, and the following
    January his company bought a 77 percent stake in Shaanxi’s Qinchuan Auto Co. “A car shouldn’t cost so much,” he told his investors at the time, before revealing that he’d already dissected a large number of motor vehicles as part of his imitation quest.

    Copying was in Wang’s blood. After a 2003 visit to BYD’s Songjiang laboratory in Shanghai, for example, a former Chery Auto expert noted that he saw only two pieces of lab equipment that had been imported; the rest were Chinese-made imitations of foreign equipment.

    How can simple imitation win a market? The Chery veteran said BYD strategy’s is based on focus, brazenness and precision.

    Rather than waste effort creating new models for the sake of variety, a limited number of resources are spent on developing key products. That’s the company’s focus. As a brazen market player, BYD picks best-selling products and blatantly copies them, head to toe.

    The company also works to rigidly control costs and quality, and learns by doing. “BYD’s excellent quality imitation cars are tied to the fact that the company has accumulated experience in strict product control from its earlier practices in batteries and the IT sector,” the Chery source said.

    “Maybe it’s right. They very well may become China’s flagship auto manufacturer.”

    Unwelcome Buyer

    BYD delights and frightens suppliers at the same time. Many have discovered that BYD typically makes one or two serious, large orders of models, materials, or components but never orders again. That’s because it just starts making whatever it bought.

    This kind of vertical integration is a cost-cutting measure. And it worked well in the battery business. BYD overtook Japan’s Sanyo in just a few years to become the world’s largest supplier of Ni-Cd batteries, and eventually became the second largest provider of Li-Ion batteries.

    BYD rose to a new extreme when it got into automotive manufacturing. The company went against an industry trend that started in the late 1990s, when the world’s major auto manufacturers were turning to outsourcing to increase efficiency and lower risk.

    Auto stamping offers a good example of BYD’s strategy. The company obtained a complete stamping plant when it bought Qinchuan, eliminating the need for expensive outsource production of new car body parts, which can take two years and cost 200 million yuan. As a result, BYD started making new stamps in eight months for 80 million yuan, and now it’s building a third stamping plant near Shenzhen.

    “Why are our cars so cheap?” retorted a mid-level staffer at BYD. “Money is saved on every part, from engine to dashboard.”

    This do-it-yourself attitude stretches from manufacturing to distribution to sales. True, BYD’s homemade company ads are a little rough around the edges. But it spends only about 20,000 yuan to build a lighted, outdoor ad which, if outsourced to an advertising agency, could cost more than 400,000 yuan.

    Hands-On Success

    When U.S. billionaire Warren Buffett invested in BYD in 2008, major transaction player and MidAmerican Energy Holdings CEO David L. Sokol visited BYD’s Shenzhen battery workshop. He was surprised to discover employees sitting on rows of workbenches – like 18th century seamstresses – busy producing millions of batteries every year with simple tools and bare hands.

    Indeed, from the start, low-cost labor has been integral to Wang’s strategy for overtaking Japanese competitors. He uses people instead of machines wherever possible, supplementing humans only when necessary.

    BYD is proud of this operational model which it weaves into unique staff recruiting practices. In addition to laborers, the company hires top engineering students, sometimes an entire university class immediately after graduation, as well as capable engineers and retirees with extensive experience.

    In a 2003 television interview with official CCTV, Wang said he thought labor costs plus market advantages were keys to success for Chinese enterprises.

    At the end of 2009, according to BYD’s official statistics, the company had more than 140,000 employees, including more than 30,000 engineers.

    After buying of Qinchuan, Wang brought his literally “hands on” manufacturing approach to the automotive sector. Now, even in usually high-tech areas such as painting, most jobs are done with manpower. BYD’s F6 assembly line in Shenzhen, for example, employs a sizable staff of 220 people.

    “Whenever manpower can be used, they won’t use machines,” said a source close to BYD.

    And the strategy began with batteries. Unlike box-shaped Li-Ion batteries made by many other companies, BYD’s are column-shaped because they are made manually. Box-shaped batteries require automated equipment.

    Today, a BYD battery line employs more than 100 people to do the same work handled by 50 people in China’s most automated mobile phone battery-maker, Shenzhen’s BAK Battery.

    A former BYD employee said relying on manpower for mobile phone batteries results in a higher waste rate, usually between 20 and 30 percent. A similar, automated production line in Japan would have an elimination rate closer to 5 percent. But to Wang, the waste rate is completely acceptable because it can save hundreds of millions of yuan.

    Growing Pains

    There’s no doubt BYD’s market share and sales are increasing. However, there are still debates about the sustainability of the company’s magic, low-cost wand.

    The debates haven’t affected BYD’s bank credit rating. A high-ranking official at the Shenzhen branch of China Development Bank said the bank isn’t worried about BYD, noting other businesses such as telecom equipment giants ZTE and Huawei had shaky starts.

    The bank has confidence in BYD because it gets substantial financial subsidies from the government for environmental protection programs. In addition, the company’s Li-Ion battery business is profitable.

    But Wu Jinghui, a senior manager at market analyst A.C. Kearney, notes that automation offers uniformity in output and quality, while manpower poses risks for manufacturers. And a strictly manpower strategy is considered untenable for electric cars and new energy markets.

    BYD officials understand Wu’s point. Eventually, the company may be heading down the road to automation, especially in the electric car and new energy arenas. By then, holding down costs will have become an even bigger challenge for BYD.

    Yet, as of last year, most of BYD’s 5 billion yuan in automated production facilities were self-built.

    Intellectual property right is another sticky issue, since most BYD cars pay homage to other manufacturers’ products.

    BYD booths at car shows have been frequented by Toyota employees taking photos and collecting data. “It appears they’re building a case,” said an individual familiar with the international car market.

    In the past, other Chinese automakers such as Chery and Great Wall have had to confront IPR charges and lost lawsuits in the United States and Europe, leading to export restrictions.

    Wang has often stressed that his company imitates but does not plagiarize, arguing that South Korean and Japanese car manufacturers got their starts the same way.

    In hopes of skirting patent issues, BYD has a team with hundreds of people who study global patent intricacies. At the same time, BYD has begun applying for large numbers of patents; it was the biggest applicant after Huawei and ZTC in Shenzhen last year.

    BYD Sales Vice President Wang Jianjun says every automaker has to find its own path slowly. He notes that BYD is coming out with six, new models in 2010, all mid-range cars costing more than 100,000 yuan.

    “You’ll discover that these new makes don’t resemble anyone else’s models,” he said. “We made them ourselves.”

    1 yuan = 14 U.S. cents

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  • The Truth Behind China’s BUSINESSWEEK: BYD Car Company–And Warren Buffet’s Investment

    Posted by: Bruce Nussbaum on February 11

    This is the most honest and insightful analysis of a leading Chinese company that I have ever read and it comes out of Caixin Online inside China, not the US, European or Japanese business press.

    This is how the article begins: “From batteries to cars, BYD engineers have found that successful product manufacturing begins by copying others.”

    Yes, Warren Buffet is investing in an auto company that cuts costs and generates value by reverse engineering Japanese, European and American cars, steals their technology and intellectual property, and resells it at a lower cost. Yes, BYD also use a lot of cheap human labor to keep costs low, but it begins by reverse engineering and not paying for the technology it takes.

    As virtually every US, European, Korean and Japanese company knows but doesn’t publicly say, this model of copying but not paying for foreign technology is THE PARADIGM in China. I was on a plane flying home from Beijing recently and overheard a manager from a US company selling electric car-charging stations to China admit that he believed his technology would be copied in a year or two, without any compensation paid. But it was still worth it to his company and he hoped it could stay ahead of the high-tech curve.

    I’ve seen true innovation and creativity in China. Lenovo, to my mind, is a truly innovative company. So is Haier. And there are thousands of creative people in social media and tens of thousands students graduating every year with great creative skills.

    But the culture of copying remains the dominant one in China. It apparently is reinforced by government-condoned, if not sponsored, cyber-espionage on a vast scale that penetrates computers and steals technology from companies and governments all over the world.

    I hope the forces of creativity win out over the forces of copying in China. For many industries, there may soon be a time when there isn’t anything left to copy from the West, but there will be no culture of creativity to move forward and build the new. I am encouraged in this by the fact that inside China, there are publications like Caixin online that can escape government censorship and publish the truth about the Chinese manufacturing and export “miracle.”

    BYD is scheduled to sell all-electric cars in the US soon. They will be cheap. There is a reason for that.

    Back to you Warren.

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  • CNBC: Buffett Author: Warren Doesn’t Rely on Luck

    Published: Wednesday, 10 Feb 2010 | 2:07 PM ET

    By: Alex Crippen
    Executive Producer

    Nassim Taleb
    Photo by: YechezkelZilber
    Nassim Taleb

    Black Swan‘ author Nassim Taleb’s latest comment about Warren Buffett’s luck has generated some heat.

    Taleb tells the online magazine ai5000, “I’m not saying Buffett doesn’t have skill – I’m just saying we don’t have enough evidence to say Buffett isn’t doing it by chance.”

    Warren Buffett Watch’s post relaying that quote has prompted a robust conversation with dozens of reader comments.

    And, we received this email from Buffett author Janet Tavakoli, who notes Taleb has already made similar comments about Buffett. She didn’t agree with him then, either.

    She writes:

    Warren Buffett loves luck as much as the next man, but he doesn’t rely on it. As I point out in my book, Dear Mr. Buffett (Wiley 2009 P. 55):

    When Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a risk theorist, discusses Buffett’s success, he seems to damn it with faint praise: “I am not saying that Warren Buffett is not skilled; only that a large population of random investors will almost necessarily produce someone with his track records just by luck.” If Taleb needed an example of success due to random luck, he did not choose well; he could have chosen from any number of hedge funds instead. Taleb fails to mention conditional probabilities (in this context), and it is remiss to describe Warren’s success without bringing that up. Certainty is not possible, and luck is always part of the equation, but Warren works hard to uncover a margin of safety wherever possible.

    Janet Tavakoli, founder and president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc.
    Janet Tavakoli, founder and president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc.

    If Taleb needs an example of success due to random luck, perhaps he should use the first year performance of Empirica Kurtosis, his own former “black swan” fund. The fund reportedly had a 58.8% return in 2000 followed by a loss of -8.9% in 2001, a year that Taleb called “the mother of all black swans.” The fund then had double digit negative returns of -13.2% in 2002. That was followed by—at best—low single-digit gains in 2003 and 2004, a two-year period when hedge funds in general posted average returns of 20% and 9% respectively. The fund’s size was around $375 million when most of the assets were returned to investors in early 2005. Original investors (in 2000) that stayed until the end would have had T-Bill returns (at the time) or worse on average. Investors who invested in 2001, but before the “black swan” event of 9/11, would have wound up with net negative returns.

    Do you want to pay hedge fund management fees for that kind of performance? What would Taleb call that—lack of success due to random bad luck? One shouldn’t be fooled by randomness, but there is no need to be a fool for randomness.

    Current Berkshire stock prices:

    Berkshire Portfolio

    Class A: [BRK.A 111655.00 -45.00 (-0.04%) ]

    Class B: [BRK.B 74.46 -0.07 (-0.09%) ]

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  • BLOOMBERG: Berkshire Rating Cut by Fitch on Burlington Deal

    By Andrew Frye and Jamie McGee

    Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. had its credit grade cut two levels by Fitch Ratings after the company agreed to buy railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp.

    “The downgrades reflect Fitch’s concerns about the Burlington Northern acquisition’s effect on Berkshire’s asset profile, capitalization, and interest coverage,” the ratings company said in a statement today. The firm was also cut because of its “significant equity market exposure.”

    Fitch was the first of the three largest credit-rating companies to strip Berkshire of its gold-standard AAA rating last March, citing the effect of falling stock markets on the Omaha, Nebraska-based company’s derivative bets. Moody’s Investors Service followed a month later, and Standard & Poor’s removed its top rating last week.

    Berkshire is taking on debt, drawing down cash and issuing shares to fund the $26 billion takeover of Burlington Northern. Buffett, 79, has called the railroad takeover an “all-in wager” on the U.S. economy.

    “Berkshire’s financing of the Burlington Northern acquisition is expected to result in a meaningful increase in financial leverage,” Fitch said in the statement.

    Fitch cut Berkshire’s issuer default rating to AA- from AA+ and lowered the insurer financial strength rating to AA+ from AAA. It changed its rating outlook to “stable” from a “negative” ratings watch.

    Berkshire Class A shares fell $35 to $111,665 at 12:58 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Buffett’s company has climbed 27 percent in the past year.

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  • BUSINESSWEEK: Buffett Takes on Chokepoint in Chicago With Burlington Northern

    February 10, 2010, 11:32 AM EST

    By John Lippert

    Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) — Warren Buffett and Bill Gates face a roadblock on the route toward payoff on their investment in U.S. freight transportation.

    Chicago, whose railroads made it hog butcher for the world a century ago, is a tangle of bottlenecks where a quarter of the nation’s rail freight stalls while trying to navigate the city.

    “We can’t keep running trains from Los Angeles to Chicago in 55 hours and then take 36 hours to get a rail car from one side of Chicago to the next,” said Matt Rose, chief executive officer of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. “We either need to fix Chicago or avoid it.”

    For Buffett, 79, a solution could help overcome skepticism about his $26 billion bid for Burlington, which shareholders are to vote on tomorrow. For the Chicago area, speedier passage could head off a loss of rail traffic, jobs and tax revenue when the city is coping with a drop in trade-show business.

    Part of the answer may come from Calpers. The California Public Employees’ Retirement System is backing two and possibly three rail yards outside Chicago to handle intermodal freight — containers that switch between ships, trains and trucks. The yards would help reduce the typical day-and-a-half slog across the city’s intersecting Amtrak, commuter train and freight tracks, helping railroads in their quest to take more shipping from the trucking industry.

    The first is a $1 billion Burlington yard that opened in 2002. Calpers’s real estate unit, CenterPoint Properties Trust, is scheduled to open a $2 billion Union Pacific Corp. facility nearby in September. Negotiations are under way with Canadian National Railway Co. for a third yard, said Michael Mullen, CenterPoint’s chief executive.

    Gates’s Stake

    The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is one of Montreal- based Canadian National’s 10 biggest shareholders, with 1.8 percent of the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Michael Larson of Cascade Investment LLC in Kirkland, Washington, investment manager for Gates, 54, didn’t return calls seeking comment. Amy Enright, a spokeswoman for the foundation, referred calls to Larson.

    A train ride through Burlington’s new yard caught Buffett’s attention, Rose said. He briefed the Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman on the rail connections to the West Coast and on a surrounding network of distribution centers in April 2008, a year after Buffett first invested in Burlington.

    “He loved it,” said Rose, 50. Nineteen months later, Buffett offered to buy the rest of the Fort Worth, Texas-based company. Buffett didn’t respond to a request for comment e- mailed to his assistant Carrie Kizer.

    Efficient Deliveries

    Buffett was impressed by how the facility works with big retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Rose said. Bentonville, Arkansas-based Wal-Mart owns a distribution center half a mile away to receive goods arriving from Asia.

    Being so close to the yard slashes shipping costs: Retailers spend about $2,000 to send each container from Shanghai to Joliet, Illinois, then $25 more to reach nearby distribution facilities, Mullen said. The additional cost would shoot to $200 a container for a facility 5 miles away, he said.

    What Buffett called his “all-in wager” on the U.S. economy’s future prompted Standard & Poor’s to strip Berkshire of its last AAA credit rating. Oil prices in the $70 to $80 range favor railroads over long-haul trucking as an investment, said Eric Marshall, research director of Dallas-based Hodges Capital Management. Berkshire’s Class A shares have gained 15 percent to $111,700 since Nov. 2, the day before the Burlington deal was announced.

    “All the railroads will do well because they’re the low- cost provider of transportation,” said Marshall, whose firm sold 500,000 Burlington shares after Buffett’s offer and used the proceeds to acquire 556,000 shares in Kansas City Southern. “When oil was at $20 a barrel, that was not the case.”

    Mexico Connection

    Kansas City Southern, based in Kansas City, Missouri, is installing new intermodal technology to connect Chicago and other U.S. cities with Mexico, Marshall said. Its shares have risen 26 percent to $30.33 since Nov. 2.

    Burlington is the largest purchase ever for Berkshire Hathaway, which agreed to pay 60 percent of the $100-a-share price in cash and the rest in stock. The market capitalization of Burlington, Union Pacific and Canadian National more than tripled in the past decade as the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dropped 21.4 percent.

    Their shares rose as railroads rediscovered customer service, said Dan Ortwerth, an Edward Jones analyst in St. Louis. For a century, government told railroads where to lay track and what to charge. Customers accepted lousy service or paid more to move their freight on trucks, he said. After mergers spawned by President Jimmy Carter’s deregulation of the industry in 1980, railroads began thinking about customers in the past decade, Ortwerth said.

    Intermodal Success

    Success in railroads now hinges on which companies best take advantage of intermodal shipments, which produce more revenue per carload than other freight. Donald Broughton, a St. Louis-based analyst for Avondale Partners LLC, has a “buy” rating on Union Pacific because it’s winning intermodal freight from Burlington.

    By the end of 2009, Burlington’s weekly lead over Union Pacific in intermodal container shipments had dwindled to 11,355 from 32,500 in late 2008, Broughton said in a report. Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific is the biggest U.S. railroad by sales. It had revenue of $14.1 billion last year, compared with $14 billion for Burlington.

    Union Pacific’s Yard

    Union Pacific is likely to capture even more business from Burlington, Broughton said, when its intermodal yard opens in September about 40 miles (60 kilometers) southwest of Chicago in Joliet. Union Pacific shares have gained 12 percent in the wake of the Burlington agreement, while Canadian National’s have gained 2.4 percent.

    Buffett’s investment in Burlington opens doors for the entire railroad industry on Wall Street and in Washington, Rose said.

    “It’s a vote of confidence that railroads can provide significant value to the capital markets and great social value,” he said. One gallon of diesel fuel moves a ton of freight 415 miles by rail, compared with 155 miles by truck, and generates a quarter as much greenhouse gases, Mullen said.

    After the recession ends, population growth and economic expansion will spur U.S. freight shipments to rise at a compounded annual rate of 2.2 percent for the next decade, and intermodal traffic to increase 3.6 percent per year, estimated Charles Clowdis, an IHS Global Insight analyst in Lexington, Massachusetts.

    Bigger Moves Needed

    The new intermodal freight yards near Chicago will digest some of this growth, said Hani Mahmassani, director of Northwestern University’s Transportation Center, in Evanston, Illinois, which studies global transportation systems. But they’re not big enough to shift large volumes of traffic out of the central city, so they won’t solve all its rail traffic problems, he said.

    “As we see an uptick in the economy, congestion is going to be totally unbearable,” Mahmassani said. “If we don’t solve it, freight will go elsewhere.”

    Losing its role as the nation’s premier rail hub would harm the regional economy for generations, said Jeffery Sriver, director of rail infrastructure at the Chicago Department of Transportation. Chicago faces growing competition from new intermodal switching yards planned or built by Burlington near Kansas City and by Canadian National in Memphis, Tennessee.

    Chicago’s Challenges

    Unemployment in the Chicago metropolitan area rose to 10.6 percent in December from 6.9 percent a year earlier. The Society of the Plastics Industry Inc. and the Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society both informed Chicago last year that they’re moving their trade shows to cities in the South.

    Chicago’s first railroad was built in 1848 by a former mayor, William B. Ogden, said Dominic Pacyga, author of “Chicago: A Biography” (University of Chicago Press, 462 pages, $35).

    Unable to find investors in New York, Ogden sold stock subscriptions to farmers along the proposed route to Galena in northwestern Illinois. The line was so successful that by 1855, 17 railroads converged on Chicago from all directions.

    The railroads helped Chicago become a center for slaughterhouses, mail-order retail and steelmaking. In the process, Chicago developed expertise that allows it to compete as a global city today, said Saskia Sassen, a Columbia University sociologist.

    “New York does finance,” Sassen said. “Chicago has legal, financial and transportation skills that are rooted in the material practice of making things.”

    Calpers’s Strategy

    Calpers bought CenterPoint, an Oak Brook, Illinois-based real estate investment trust, for $3.4 billion in 2006. Starting in 2001, CenterPoint purchased 6,000 acres of land on an abandoned U.S. Army arsenal in Joliet. The core of the Burlington yard is a set of parallel tracks where four trains, each 1.5 miles long, are loaded and unloaded simultaneously.

    Workers need 10 hours to unload trains onto tractor- trailers — half as much time as a decade ago — for companies such as Wal-Mart, which uses global positioning satellites to track each container, dispatching truck drivers via e-mail as trains approach.

    Such improvements grew out of a crisis. After winter storms snarled traffic in 1999, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley formed a coalition of six freight railroads, plus city and state officials and Amtrak. The group wants to fix 78 local bottlenecks at a cost of $2.5 billion, according to its Web site. The coalition has secured $761 million so far, about a quarter from railroads and the rest from government.

    Federal Funds

    It has applied for $300 million of the $1.5 billion in rail infrastructure grants President Barack Obama’s administration will award later this month. The group also is seeking $700 million from a transportation bill pending in Congress.

    When Obama announced $8 billion in high-speed rail grants Jan. 28, he included $133 million for a new overpass near 63rd Street and Interstate Highway 94 on Chicago’s south side. Each day, the overpass will allow 82 passenger trains and 46 freight trains to pass by at different levels, instead of having to take turns for a clear track.

    Federal Railroad Administrator Joseph Szabo called Chicago infrastructure the most significant freight bottleneck in the U.S.

    “You don’t achieve much traveling 110 miles an hour in a cornfield if you can’t get into the city,” Szabo told reporters last month. “Chicago has to get fixed.”

    –With assistance from Andrew Frye and Craig Trudell in New York and Angela Greiling Keane in Washington. Editors: Flynn McRoberts, Brenda Batten

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  • BUSINESSWEEK; Paulson Tells Buffett Banks to Repay ‘Every Penny’

    By Andrew Frye

    Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) — Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, responding to a question from billionaire Warren Buffett, said the U.S. government will be repaid in full for the funds it put into the country’s lenders.

    “We will get every penny we put into the banks back” and turn a profit, Paulson said today at a meeting of the Greater Omaha Chamber in Omaha, Nebraska. “I think when you look at all the other programs, we may be surprised at what we get back.”

    More than 700 U.S. banks, insurers and automakers applied to the U.S. for cash from the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Borrowers including Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. have returned more than $180 billion in bailout funds, according to Bloomberg data, and the Obama administration has proposed a levy on financial firms to recoup the government’s costs.

    Special Inspector General Neil Barofsky, the government watchdog monitoring the bailout, said last month that the entire TARP program, including the rescue of American International Group Inc., General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, will cost taxpayers less than previously predicted. An earlier Barofksy report to Congress said the final cost could be “substantial.”

    Paulson in 2008 injected capital into banks in exchange for preferred shares paying 5 percent and warrants to buy common stock. He appeared on stage at a meeting of the chamber of commerce alongside Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is based in Omaha. Buffett asked questions of Paulson about the events surrounding the government bailouts as the two promoted Paulson’s book, “On the Brink.”

    “I think you’re right,” Buffett said when Paulson said the U.S. would recoup its investment. Buffett declined to comment after the event today.

    President Barack Obama last month proposed a fee on as many as 50 financial companies to recover losses from TARP. The levy would apply to firms with more than $50 billion in assets, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., two companies that Berkshire has investments in. Buffett has said he opposes the administration’s plan.

    Buffett’s Suggestion

    Paulson wrote in the book, which was published last week, that a proposal from Buffett helped him hone the bailout to make it palatable to investors. During a private phone call late on Oct. 11, 2008, Buffett suggested charging banks 5 percent or 6 percent on the U.S. investments and raising the rate later, Paulson wrote. The Treasury team had been considering 7 percent or 8 percent.

    “I was convinced Warren’s was the best way to make the capital purchase program attractive to banks while giving them an incentive to pay back the government,” Paulson wrote. “Warren had a vested interest in this idea. But the truth was I was looking for an approach just like his: an investor-friendly plan that would protect the taxpayer” and encourage private investment.

    Lenders have bought back $121.9 billion in preferred stock from the TARP’s Capital Purchase Program, with almost $83 billion still outstanding, according to a Feb. 5 transaction report. The agency has collected about $4.03 billion from the sale of warrants in about 35 banks.

    Missed Payments

    The $2.33 billion government bailout of CIT Group Inc., the commercial lender that emerged from bankruptcy in December, has been wiped out after the reorganization. American International Group Inc., with a bailout from TARP and other government efforts valued at $182.3 billion, missed dividend payments due the U.S. More than 50 other financial institutions didn’t pay dividends in November, according a report from Treasury.

    Buffett’s Berkshire is the biggest investor in Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo. His $5 billion investment in New York- based Goldman Sachs came on September 23, 2008, and Paulson wrote that that injection by Berkshire removed one of his worries.

    World’s Most Credible Investor

    “They’d found the most credible investor in the world, Warren Buffett,” Paulson wrote of Goldman Sachs, the firm he ran as chief executive officer and chairman until his appointment to George W. Bush’s cabinet in 2006.

    Berkshire earns a 10 percent dividend on the Goldman Sachs preferred shares and the right to buy $5 billion of the bank’s stock at $115 a share. The shares closed yesterday at $151.10 in New York.

    Buffett, according to Paulson’s account, told CNBC the day after his Goldman Sachs purchase that he wouldn’t have made the investment if he didn’t think Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program would pass Congress. TARP, originally devised as a way for the government to relieve banks of their bad debts, later became the capital purchase plan that Buffett helped shape.

    –With assistance from Peter Eichenbaum, Linda Shen, Michael J. Moore and Hugh Son in New York. Editors: Erik Holm, Gregory Mott

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  • REUTERS: Paulson, Buffett say U.S. needed tough medicine


    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and billionaire investor Warren Buffett, from different sides of the political spectrum, expressed support on Tuesday for the U.S. government’s aggressive steps in 2008 to keep the nation’s banks and economy from a complete meltdown.

    The men were speaking before the annual meeting of the Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce in Omaha, Nebraska, where Buffett’s insurance and investment company Berkshire Hathaway Inc is based. CNBC simulcast their talk on its website.

    Paulson and many other regulators have been faulted for letting Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc go bankrupt on September 15, 2008, a signal event in the global financial crisis and still by far the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

    Yet Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc chief executive who became treasury secretary under Republican President George W. Bush in 2006, called the credit crisis of 2008 “a doozy,” one whose scope he never foresaw.

    He praised the still-controversial agreement by former Bank of America Corp Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis to buy Merrill Lynch & Co, an accord announced roughly an hour before Lehman went bankrupt.

    That move still dogs Lewis, who retired from the bank six weeks ago and was hit with a civil fraud lawsuit last week by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over his conduct in the merger. Lewis’ lawyers have rejected the charges.

    Merrill “wouldn’t have lasted a week” had Bank of America not bought it, Paulson said. Lewis “was a confident, decisive CEO,” and buying Merrill was “a stabilizing action” for the financial system, he said.

    Still, Paulson said Wall Street pay remains “out of whack” and that the highest-paid workers should be compensated mainly in equity, in a way that rewards long-term performance.

    Last week, Goldman said Paulson’s successor Lloyd Blankfein would get $9 million for 2009 in the form of a stock bonus. That is below the $67.9 million he was awarded in 2007, when Goldman also turned a record profit. Analysts believe the lower sum could defuse some critics of pay on Wall Street and at Goldman.

    Buffett was interviewing Paulson about the latter’s new book, “On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System.”

    Long supportive of Democratic causes, Buffett said the book gave him a better understanding of how Bush and Paulson handled the financial crisis.

    “I really did gain an appreciation for the fact that he understood what was going on and that he understood what needed to be done,” Buffett said, referring to Bush.

    He recalled Bush’s pithy summary of the crisis in late September 2008, in which the president was quoted as saying: “If money isn’t loosened up, this sucker could go down.”

    (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel; editing by Andre Grenon)

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  • CNBC VIDEO: Warren Buffett and Hank Paulson’s Credit Crunch ‘Conversation’ In Omaha

    Published: Tuesday, 9 Feb 2010 | 8:12 PM ET
    By: Alex Crippen
    Executive Producer

    Warren Buffett and former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson appeared before the Greater Omaha Chamber this afternoon (Tuesday) for an informal 50-minute “conversation” that focused on Paulson and the events he writes about in his book, On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System.

    A summary appears in the previous WBW post, Warren Buffett: I Have Greater Appreciation of Pres. Bush’s Handling of Credit Crisis.

    Here, in two parts, is video of the entire event, as it streamed live on CNBC.com earlier today:

    Current Berkshire stock prices:

    Class A: [BRK.A 111700.00 589.00 (+0.53%) ]

    Class B: [BRK.B 74.53 0.30 (+0.4%) ]

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