Author: David Dayen

The President will sign the health care legislation on Tuesday, allowing the Senate to finish their work on the set of fixes in the reconciliation bill. Harry Reid has promised to begin work on the bill at that time.

The key question here is whether or not Republicans will bother to gum up the works and obstruct the reconciliation bill, when health care legislation will already be the law of the land. All they will be obstructing is the “special deals” like the Nebraska Medicaid expansion, along with preserving a tax on the middle class instead of delaying it. There are other parts to the bill, of course, including student loan reform. Maybe that’s the reason they’ll obstruct. Or maybe just out of muscle memory. Or maybe because they want to stop any thought of reconciliation getting used again by making it arduous.

At any rate, Republicans have signaled a willingness to block the reconciliation bill. Actually, the entire bill. But this doesn’t look like much of a threat.

But my sense is that there’s some confusion about what happens if the parliamentarian rules against the Democrats on this or that provision. So let me be clear on this: Reconciliation isn’t all or nothing. The parliamentarian isn’t ruling whether you can do a reconciliation rider. He’s ruling over what you can do with it. An adverse ruling is more annoying for the Democrats than it is disastrous.

If the parliamentarian strikes a provision or two, Senate Democrats will either pass the reconciliation act with that provision deleted from the package or they’ll rewrite the package to try and achieve the same thing in a way that survives parliamentary challenge. Either way, if the package Senate Democrats pass is changed from the package the House considered, then it will have to go back to the House to be passed again. But since House Democrats clearly have the votes to pass reconciliation fixes, that shouldn’t be much of a problem.

I don’t really think that anyone wants to go back to the House again, given the heavy lift already done the first time around. But Ezra is correct. Knocking out a line or two delays the inevitable. As long as 50 votes are available to pass the reconciliation bill, it will become law. And Senate leaders have made full assurances that they have the votes – I don’t even think there’s a need for a public whip count.

It will be worth seeing if Democrats can limit the length of the reconciliation debate in the Senate. Only 20 hours of actual debate are allowed for a reconciliation bill. But anyone can offer up amendments, and they get voted on without debate at a “vote-a-rama” at the end. Democrats think they have a way to get the parliamentarian to call an over-abundance of amendments dilatory. If this works, there’s no reason not to use reconciliation for other on-budget purposes by the end of this year for fiscal year 2011. That 50-vote process would be available.

Tags: budget reconciliation, filibuster, obstructionism, Republicans, Senate, student loans

 

[UPDATE: The House of Representatives has passed HR 3590, the Senate version of health care reform. The final vote was 219 Aye, 212 Nay. As, expected, no GOP votes crossed over to vote yes this time.

Republicans are now proposing a motion to recommit that includes the language of the original Stupak amendment.]

I’ve been following along on my twitter feed during the series of speeches, but we’re getting very close to the final votes.

After the end of all the speeches, there will be a vote, I believe, on the Senate bill, HR 3590. After that, without any time for debate in between, there will be a vote on the reconciliation bill. Both are expected to pass, with (I would guess) 218 or 219 votes.

So that’s the schedule. We’ll have voting soon, I’ll be around to tally.

Big thanks to everyone following along, commenting, and checking in to contact me over this last week. You kept me going.

…I would expect speeches from John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi before the first vote. I’ve seen no evidence that there will be a motion to recommit, though I suppose it’s possible. In that case, there would be three votes to go.

…Here’s John Boehner. “I rise tonight with a sad and heavy heart.” I say he pulls a Glenn Beck (and cries, not pulls out the blackboard).

…And the House turns into the British Parliament for a moment, with the shouts back and forth.

…Boehner’s losing it, thinks he’s a preacher, doing call-and-response.

…Apparently, there will be a motion to recommit, but only AFTER the Senate bill, which shows what a transparent farce it is for Republicans to submit it, since health care will be the law of the land after the Senate bill passes.

…Boehner tries to back the Dems into a corner by getting a one-by-one recorded vote (there’s a public roll call afterward, I see no point), David Obey smacks him down.

…Remember, Boehner told his caucus earlier today to “behave like grownups.”

…Boehner calls the bill “a ticket to minority status.”

…Boehner yields back to resounding applause from white men on his side of the aisle. The Speaker appears.

…Pelosi getting a standing ovation. “Tonight we will make history for our country.”

Tags: Health care, health care reform, House of Representatives, John Boehner, Nancy Pelosi, Reconciliation

 

And it is necessary:

House Minority Leader John Boehner told his conference to “behave like grown-ups” if the healthcare bill is passed by the House on Sunday.

The Ohio Republican made the warning at a quick closed-door meeting with fellow House GOP lawmakers at noon in the Capitol.

According to several lawmakers who attended the 15 minute meeting, Boehner said “we will behave like grown-ups,” and not engage in taunting the vulnerable Democrats who support the controversial measure.

This didn’t stop them from, earlier today, putting mug shots of a bunch of Democrats who voted for the Clinton budget in 1993 and lost their seats.

I’m also wondering if the “behave like grownups” statements should actually be delivered to the base:

Looks like black and gay lawmakers aren’t the only ones being pelted with vicious slurs by folks who oppose the health reform proposal. Add a Hispanic lawmaker to the list. Trifecta!

Rep Ciro Rodriguez of Texas has confided to colleagues that he was hammered by ethnic slurs by people opposed to reform passing, one of those colleagues tells me […]

Rodriguez’s spokesperson, Rebeca Chapa, gets in touch to say that he was slammed as a “wetback” by an anti-reform protestor at a town meeting this week.

And another opponent called Rodriguez’ home and told the family member who answered to “go back to Mexico.”

What an ugly, ugly movement.

Tags: Ciro Rodriguez, GOP, Health care, John Boehner, Republicans, ugly Americans

 

Just because a couple people in the comments asked for it, I’ll put up the numbers at the bottom of this post. But as a news peg, let me show you Loretta Sanchez’ tweet from the well of the House:

Looking forward to casting my vote on this historic health care bill! House is currently set to vote around 11pm EST.

I think a “No” vote after that statement would be, well, odd. So she’s a yes.

For me, acting with an abundance of caution, I think it’s 214-209. So that would be two from passage, with 8 undecided.

UPDATE: Jim Cooper makes it 215. That’s one from passage. As I said, this is going to pass.

UPDATE II: Indiana’s Joe Donnelly was part of the Stupak agreement, he confirms. That gives the Democrats the required 216 votes, and 100% assurance of passage of health care reform today.

Full count after the jump. . . .

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Lean No	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (31):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
5	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
6	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
7	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
8	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
9	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
10	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
11	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
12	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
13	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
14	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
15	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
16	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
17	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
18	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
19	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
20	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
21	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
22	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
23	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
24	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
25	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
26	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
27	Space, Zack	X				R+7	1
28	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15	1
29	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6	1
30	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6	1
31	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (1):
1	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11			1
Potential Yes-No Flips (5):
1	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4			1
2	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
3	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3			1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11			1
5	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8			1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										216
	Republican						178
	TOTAL						209	0	6	0	216

Tags: Health care, House of Representatives, Jim Cooper, Joe Donnelly, Loretta Sanchez, whip counts

 

All indications are that a deal has been reached, which would be consequential for passing the health care bill.

“Eight or nine” Democrats, including Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.), will announce the deal at a 4 p.m. press conference, according to an anti-abortion Democrat.

“We’ve changed [our votes],” said Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Ohio).

Driehaus said he’s seen the executive order and can now vote for the healthcare bill. He said Stupak has signed off, as well.

Just waiting on Stupak to confirm it himself. And the details, of course.

UPDATE: FDL has the text of the agreement/executive order here.

…Dan Pfeiffer just released a statement on the executive order: The President announced that he will release an executive order, providing “additional safeguards” ensuring that the status quo will be enforced. So this is a done deal.

Stupak is at the podium with Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Kaptur, and one other guy (not sure who).

…Here is the actual text of the abortion language.

…Rahall and Mollohan in the deal, per Stupak. “We have an agreement.” There will be no public funding for abortion. “Stood on principle.” (whatever)

…Current Hyde language will apply throughout the health care bill. (I think that’s Chris Carney, an announced yes, behind Stupak…)

…Executive order will be signed after the health care legislation.

…President’s executive order makes it clear that abortions couldn’t be performed at community health centers (that’s never happened in the history of CHCs). Conscience clause will not be co-opted by legislation.

…Marcy Kaptur at the podium. She was already a Yes. So I’m still wondering if there isn’t a hint of drama here, but it’s probably over.

…By the way, Stupak and Kaptur are begging for a primary challenge with this grandstanding, and hijacking of the debate.

Tags: abortion, Bart Stupak, Health care, Steve Driehaus

 

Bart Stupak has scheduled his third press conference in less than a day, presumably to announce the state of play on health care and the abortion language. The first two press events were cancelled, so that’s always a possibility here.

Stupak just told reporters on Capitol Hill that there was no deal yet on an executive order, though he was working with the White House on that. In that interview Stupak says he has “pretty close to 8 members” whose vote hinges on this deal. I have nine members in my Stupak bloc, so I’m wondering who’s not a party to the deal. Actually, my guess is that Jerry Costello and Dan Lipinski aren’t party to the deal – they’re no on the bill no matter what, it seems to me.

In other developments, Jim Cooper seems to be joining the undecided party. I had been watching Cooper but expecting him to go along with the vote in the end, but a holdout at this late date has to go into undecided territory. So put him on the board and call it 208 yes, 209 no, with 5 undecideds. If you throw Lipinski and Costello onto the no side, it’s 208-211.

UPDATE: Stephen Lynch is still getting lobbied hard (Secretary of State Clinton just gave him a call), and given the closeness of the count and the precariousness of the Stupak deal, you can imagine why.

Full count after the jump. . .

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Stupak	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (31):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
5	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
6	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
7	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
8	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
9	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
10	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
11	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
12	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
13	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
14	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
15	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
16	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
17	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
18	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
19	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
20	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
21	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
22	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
23	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
24	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
25	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
26	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
27	Space, Zack	X				R+7	1
28	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15	1
29	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6	1
30	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6	1
31	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (1):
1	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11			1
Potential Yes-No Flips (4):
1	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4			1
2	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
3	Sanchez, Loretta	X				D+5			1
4	Cooper, Jim	X				D+3			1
Stupak Block (9):
1	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3		1
2	Donnelly, Joe	X			S	R+4		1
3	Driehaus, Steve	X			S	D+1		1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11		1
5	Stupak, Bart	X			S	R+3		1
6	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8		1
7	Dahlkemper, Kathy	X			S	R+3		1
8	Mollohan, Alan	X			S	R+9		1
9	Rahall, Nick	X			S	R+6		1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										209
	Republican						178
	TOTAL						209	9	5	0	208

Tags: Bart Stupak, Health care

 

Earl Pomeroy announced in a statement that he would vote for the health care bill. Pomeroy made the statement with the rest of the North Dakota delegation, Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad.

So we’re at 209-209, and there are only four non-Stupak related votes out there. The yes side can’t get to yes without some of the Stupak bloc, and the no side can’t get to no without some of that bloc. It’s really down to that.

Full chart after the jump. . . .

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Stupak	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (31):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
5	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
6	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
7	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
8	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
9	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
10	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
11	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
12	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
13	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
14	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
15	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
16	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
17	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
18	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
19	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
20	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
21	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
22	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
23	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
24	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
25	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
26	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
27	Space, Zack	X				R+7	1
28	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15	1
29	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6	1
30	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6	1
31	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (1):
1	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11			1
Potential Yes-No Flips (3):
1	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4			1
2	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
3	Sanchez, Loretta	X				D+5			1
Stupak Block (9):
1	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3		1
2	Donnelly, Joe	X			S	R+4		1
3	Driehaus, Steve	X			S	D+1		1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11		1
5	Stupak, Bart	X			S	R+3		1
6	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8		1
7	Dahlkemper, Kathy	X			S	R+3		1
8	Mollohan, Alan	X			S	R+9		1
9	Rahall, Nick	X			S	R+6		1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										209
	Republican						178
	TOTAL						209	9	4	0	209

 

While we’re waiting on Bart Stupak, the only remaining obstacle, a couple updates:

Bill Foster will vote yes.

“After thorough consideration, I have decided to support the health insurance reform legislation because it eliminates pre-existing conditions, protects and strengthens Medicare and will significantly reduce the deficit by $1.3 trillion over 20 years. While the Senate bill itself is not perfect, many important improvements have been made so that the overall package is one that I can support.”

John Tanner will vote no.

“The reconciliation bill the House is being asked to consider is a tribute to the legislative process, because it has improved the Senate bill and the House bill. For these improvements, I commend the White House and House leaders for bringing this bill toward the center, where the vast majority of Americans find themselves aligned ideologically.

“After thorough and careful review of the legislation, I am unconvinced that the long-term trend of rising health care costs is adequately addressed and am therefore unable to support the legislation.”

That puts us at 208-208. It really comes down to the Stupak bloc.

UPDATE: Lincoln Davis, who voted no last time, is also reportedly a No. That would make it 208-209 with 5 true undecideds. That makes the Stupak bloc, as ever, determinative.

Numbers after the jump…

Tags: Bart Supak, Bill Foster, Health care, John Tanner, whip count

 

UPDATE: CNN says Stupak’s not quite a Yes yet. I’ll throw the numbers at the bottom including what we know about Brian Baird. Here’s the press release on that.

Reuters is now confirming that Bart Stupak will vote for the health care bill. That’s the end of the line here. Stupak will bring along a number of his bloc with him, perhaps all of it. If everyone in my Stupak bloc votes for the bill, that would put Democrats at 215. And Brian Baird’s office just confirmed that he’s voting for the bill. That’s 216. And even if a couple more-Stupak-than-Stupak dead-enders hold out, some soft undecideds like Foster and Michaud are likely to come around.

Health care reform will pass today. The Senate bill will become law of the land, and the reconciliation sidecar will go to the Senate, where Democrats have assurances that they can muster 50 votes to pass. Mitch McConnell claims the Republicans will gum up the works during the reconciliation deliberations, including making dozens of amendments and also using points of order to try and get the Parliamentarian to knock out pieces of the bill. If they succeed in deleting any one line, then the reconciliation bill would have to go back to the House for one final vote and passage.

We still don’t know what Stupak got from his vote, whether an executive order or other assurances. This has been a clarifying experience in terms of the anti-choice movement within the Democratic Party. The pro-choice movement has a lot of soul-searching to do, and must steel themselves for future fights.

Numbers after the jump…

Tags: Bart Stupak, choice, Health care, whip count

 

K-Lo thinks she has an early copy of that executive order (which she writes as “The Executiive Order” – and she’s the editor-in-chief of National Review) on abortion funding. There’s no way to authenticate this, but it sounds like a reiteration of the Hyde Amendment, and in particular applies it to community health centers. This could potentially tie up some Planned Parenthood clinics, although that’s somewhat unclear.

NRO writes this off as non-binding and useless. Others say it codifies Hyde, but I don’t read it this way. It just restates what’s already in the bill, and applies Hyde to the community health centers. That doesn’t bring Hyde into law, necessarily, because if the amendment isn’t re-upped in an appropriations bill, there’s nothing to which to apply it.

For the purposes of this legislation, if this satisfies Stupak and his bloc the drama ends, because Pelosi and the team will have the votes to pass.

The language on the flip:

Tags: Bart Stupak, Executive Order

 

Loretta Sanchez’ Chief of Staff confirmed to the OC Register that she would make it to Washington in time to vote on the health care bill today.

I’d feel more comfortable putting her in the undecided category at this point, based on what I know. Groups like the Courage Campaign and OFA are really pressuring her.

In addition, I think you have to pull Rick Boucher into the undecided column. He’s been wavering for days after coming out as a pretty sure no.

That would make the vote count 206-207, with 9 undecideds and 9 possibly in the Stupak bloc. Stupak scheduled another press conference that was postponed; stay tuned.

UPDATE: Incidentally, here’s what Sanchez tweeted on March 16, 5 days ago:

1 in 4 Californians lack health insurance (including over 190,000 in Orange County). Major, major drag on state & local economy!

Numbers after the jump…

Tags: Health care, Loretta Sanchez, Rick Boucher, whip count

 

I’m trying to get confirmation on this, but apparently Marcy Kaptur has flipped and will vote Yes, irrespective of the White House deal on an executive order about the abortion language. Kaptur was among the lowest hanging fruit of the Stupak bloc.

However, keep in mind that Stupak said there were 8 members in the room negotiating the deal with the White House today. I had 10 in my Stupak bloc. So Kaptur and one other member (Dahlkemper?) were probably separate from that. This helps the Democratic leadership, but was probably more expected than assumed.

This makes the count 205-209, with Sanchez and Boucher as No’s but being watched.

UPDATE: Solomon Ortiz, who I had as a holdout, will vote Yes. 206-209.

UPDATE II: The Kaptur yes is based on her own words to a local news station. So this is confirmed. Numbers below:

Tags: Marcy Kaptur, Solomon Ortiz, whip count

 

Sorry I went missing last night. But Jane provided the scoop on Loretta Sanchez.

Let me just interject. I know Loretta. I’ve had dinner with Loretta. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if she carried this out, but she’s just as likely to be there in the end. She does tend to overreact to possible electoral challenges – Van Tran happens to be a miserably bad candidate, but she’s probably concerned by him. Another contributing factor is that there’s less in it for her district than you think. If undocumenteds are barred from the exchange, well, that takes out a significant number of the uninsured in her district.

Sanchez voted against the rule in the health care debate in November, then came back and voted for the bill, ultimately. (She also voted against the Stupak amendment.) If she was in Florida fundraising, she may not come back to vote at all, which is almost like voting no at this point (a tie vote does not pass).

John Larson said on ABC they have the votes in hand, but he’s been saying that all week. Bart Stupak said this morning that he has 8 votes in his coalition. If that’s true there’s almost no path to 218. However, Stupak said he was nearing a deal with the White House on language that would go into an executive order, specifying no public funding for abortion. Obviously, if the Stupak bloc all votes for the bill, victory would be fairly well in hand.

By the way, don’t be surprised if Rick Boucher, who’s on my list as a No, flips to Yes.

More in a bit…

Tags: Bart Stupak, Health care, Loretta Sanchez, whip count

 

[Ed. note: Be sure to catch the full breakdown of votes in table form below the fold.]

Via Carla Axtman, Kurt Schrader (D-OR) will vote yes:

“In the coming days I plan to vote in favor of the healthcare bill before the U.S. House of Representatives because our nation and Oregon families cannot afford the status quo.
One of my chief concerns with healthcare reform has been its ability to lower costs for Oregon families, small businesses and our nation as a whole. While I believe there is more we can do, this bill makes real progress in bending the cost curve. It includes lower and more appropriate subsidies than earlier proposals. It rewards healthy lifestyles and encourages better healthy outcomes by including my comparative effectiveness research component.

We have also reached an agreement with Congressional leaders and the Administration to improve Medicare reimbursement rates for high quality care states like Oregon. It is time to move away from the old healthcare culture of just paying for quantity of care and instead focusing on quality of care. By focusing on quality of care we can attack the problem of overutilization that is the major driver of healthcare costs.

Schrader was a pretty necessary get for Pelosi. It doesn’t totally change the calculus: Democrats must limit the Stupak bloc to 6, and pick up 2 votes elsewhere, either from uncommitted members who voted No last time (Baird, L.Davis, Nye, Tanner) or from flipping some hard No vote.

UPDATE: Three others to watch, who I think will come around but who aren’t totally confirmed: Loretta Sanchez, Jim Cooper, and Ron Klein.

The numbers…

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Stupak	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (29):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11	1
5	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
6	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
7	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
8	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
9	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
10	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
11	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
12	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
13	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
14	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
15	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
16	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
17	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
18	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
19	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
20	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
21	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
22	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
23	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
24	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
25	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
26	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
27	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
28	Space, Zack	X				R+7	1
29	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (4):
1	Baird, Brian		X	R		D+0			1
2	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14			1
3	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6			1
4	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6			1
Potential Yes-No Flips (6):
1	Foster, Bill	X				R+1			1
2	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4			1
3	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
4	Ortiz, Solomon	X				R+2			1
5	Pomeroy, Earl	X				R+10			1
Stupak Block (10):
1	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3		1
2	Donnelly, Joe	X			S	R+4		1
3	Driehaus, Steve	X			S	D+1		1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11		1
5	Stupak, Bart	X			S	R+3		1
6	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8		1
7	Dahlkemper, Kathy	X			S	R+3		1
8	Mollohan, Alan	X			S	R+9		1
9	Kaptur, Marcy	X			S	D+10		1
10	Rahall, Nick	X			S	R+6		1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										205
	Republican						178
	TOTAL						207	10	9	0	205

Tags: health care reform, Kurt Schrader, Oregon, Reconciliation, whip count

 

Another setback for Democratic leaders: Jim Matheson (D-UT) will vote no.

Matheson, a conservative Democrat and leader of the Blue Dog caucus, said he is convinced the massive $940 billion bill would “leave our nation worse off.”

“I am saddened that the year-long debate on health reform has resulted in legislation that is too expensive, contains too many special deals, does not contain health care costs and will result in increases in health insurance premiums and therefore I will vote against the legislation,” he said.

So much for Matheson being bribed by his brother being given a federal judgeship.

That makes it 207 No votes and 204 Yes votes. Ten are still undecided, and ten are potentially part of the Stupak bloc.

The numbers:

 

The House Rules Committee released a nine-page “manager’s amendment” incorporating a series of changes to the reconciliation text that came out earlier this week. It looks mainly technical in nature, and my Congress-speak isn’t perfect, so I’m delving into this a bit more and will report back anything worth reporting.

…Page 5 talks about $400 million dollars available for “qualifying hospitals” in fiscal years 2011 and 2012. What is a “qualifying hospital”?

The term ‘‘qualifying hospital’’ means a subsection (d) hospital (as defined for purposes of section 1886(d) of the Social Security Act) that is located in a county that ranks, based upon its ranking in age, sex, and race adjusted spending for benefits under parts A and B under title XVIII of such Act per enrollee, within the lowest quartile of such counties in the United States.

Low-income hospitals (and that probably goes to more rural hospitals than you think) getting some $.

 

I didn’t think this was going to be carried live, but Nancy Pelosi is introducing the President right now on C-SPAN. I’ll update.

…Harry Reid showed up. I assume he’ll be passing around the Senate letter which apparently has over 50 firm commitments for passing the reconciliation sidecar.

Reid: “I have a signed agreement to make that good law even better,” a reference to the letter.

Reid relates the health care endgame to March Madness: Republicans are “trying to foul us, and foul us, and foul us” at the end of the game.

…Steny Hoyer up now.

…OK, the President has reached the lectern.

Thanks Reid, Hoyer, Pelosi, etc.

Quotes Abraham Lincoln: “I am not bound to win, but I am bound to be true. I am not bound to succeed, but I am bound to live up to the light I have.” Acknowledges difficult debate and difficult process.

This body “has taken on some of the toughest votes in the history of Congress.” Stressing the importance of history over poll-watching.

Says there’s a sense we are making progress in the economy.

“Now, we’re on the threshold of doing something about it. We’re a day away.”

…Says the cable news obsession is what will this mean for the Democrats, how will it play in November, etc. “I notice that there’s been a lot of friendly advice offered” by Boehner, McConnell, Rove. Maybe they’re giving the best possible advice so Pelosi remains Speaker. But maybe they also realize that after health reform passes, it’ll be harder to mischaracterize what this effort will be all about.

…Stressing the benefits of reform in 2010.

…Says that GOP fearmongering will amount to nothing after reform passes.

…Stresses that it’s a middle of the road bill supported by Bob Dole and Howard Baker. I’m psyched!

…Again triangulates himself between single payer and deregulation of insurance market.

 

A major development: Chris Carney (D-PA) will vote yes on the health care bill. Carney was sort of part of the Stupak bloc, but wasn’t on the list of Democrats who co-sponsored Bart Stupak’s ultimately failed amendment.

Carney was present at a meeting between Speaker Pelosi and three anti-choice Democrats (Carney, Kathy Dahlkemper and Steve Driehaus). The fact that he came out of this and decided to vote Yes bodes well for the Democratic leadership.

UPDATE: Carney’s statement.

In addition, Jim Costa and Henry Cuellar decided to lend their support to the bill, but I already had them in the count as Yes votes (Cuellar actually announced yesterday, I believe).

Seeing fellow Californian Costa come home, and with Dennis Cardoza’s main complaint, the deem and pass strategy, rendered moot by the House leadership going away from that path, I think we can confidently put Cardoza down as a Yes, too.

The new count is 204 Yes, 205 No, with now 12 undecided and 10 assumed in the Stupak bloc.

The numbers:

 

A couple updates on the whip count:

• Dennis Cardoza seemed to say in the House Rules Committee that he would oppose the effort to “deem and pass” the bill with one vote:

Cardoza, a previously undecided lawmaker who’d voted to pass Democrats’ healthcare bill in November, said he would vote against the process his party plans to move forward on healthcare.

“I don’t believe it’s smart of us to pass a bill this momentous with a deemed rule,” Cardoza said in a Rules Committee markup. “I want to make the announcement in the committee right now that I don’t support that, and won’t support a rule that does it that way.”

He won’t support the rule in the Rules Committee, or on the floor? There’s a HUGE difference. You have to wonder if he would oppose the entire bill for procedural reasons, although there are other issues with Cardoza. He will have a tougher re-election race than usual this year; Mike Berryhill, part of a political family in California’s Central Valley (two of his siblings are in the state legislature) is running against him. Apparently some money for Central Valley hospitals that was in the House bill got excised in the Senate. So he could be serious, and I think you have to make him undecided now.

• Similarly, I have enough evidence to question whether Kurt Schrader is a firm yes. Schrader was one of the last members to jump on the House bill in November, and he looks to be a holdout again.

• However, Lincoln Davis, previously a firm no, has been unclear enough that you probably have to put him in the undecided category.

• I’m also keeping an eye on Jim Cooper, Loretta Sanchez and Jim Costa, but believe they will end up Yes votes. Also, Bruce Braley jumped on the Medicare reimbursement issue, but apparently that bloc has received assurances on that, and will not have it impact their vote. Ron Kind (D-WI) will hold a press conference on this particular issue at 2:30 ET, right before the Obama meeting at 2:45 ET.

So that puts us at 202 Yes, 205 No, with 10 in the Stupak bloc and 14 undecided. Theoretically, if Pelosi picked up every single one of those 14 undecideds, she’d have exactly 216. But that would be a very surprising scenario. That’s why she’s still working with the Stupak bloc on this executive order, clarifying no public funding for abortion, which is apparently getting a blessing from the pro-choice side of the caucus.

The numbers on the flip.

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Stupak	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (27):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11	1
5	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
6	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
7	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
8	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
9	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
10	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
11	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
12	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
13	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
14	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
15	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
16	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
17	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
18	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
19	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
20	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
21	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
22	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
23	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
24	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
25	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
26	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
27	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
1	Baird, Brian		X	R		D+0			1
2	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14			1
3	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15			1
4	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6			1
5	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6			1
Potential Yes-No Flips (9):
1	Foster, Bill	X				R+1			1
2	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4			1
3	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
4	Ortiz, Solomon	X				R+2			1
5	Carney, Chris	X				R+8			1
6	Pomeroy, Earl	X				R+10			1
7	Space, Zack	X				R+7			1
8	Cardoza, Dennia	X				D+4			1
9	Schrader, Kurt	X				D+1			1
Stupak Block (10):
1	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3		1
2	Donnelly, Joe	X			S	R+4		1
3	Driehaus, Steve	X			S	D+1		1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11		1
5	Stupak, Bart	X			S	R+3		1
6	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8		1
7	Dahlkemper, Kathy	X			S	R+3		1
8	Mollohan, Alan	X			S	R+9		1
9	Kaptur, Marcy	X			S	D+10		1
10	Rahall, Nick	X			S	R+6		1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										202
	Republican						178
	TOTAL						205	10	14	0	202

 

(see the update)

OK, so NRO has not always been right (understatement of the year), but they claim that Stupak told their sources that he’s “finished with Pelosi” and the enrollment corrections bill is dead. So I’ve taken a second look at the numbers to reflect what we know, and the challenge facing the Democratic leadership.

I’ve re-divided the whip count categories into Yes, No, Undecided, and Stupak. The thinking here is that if you haven’t decided by now, the day before the vote, you’re undecided. And the Stupak bloc should get its own category to more easily see the challenges of getting to 216.

So if you do that, you have 201 202 sure Yes votes, and 206 sure No votes (which includes all Republicans and 28 Democrats who have announced their intention to oppose). 13 12 members are still completely undecided. Four who voted No last time:

Brian Baird, Jim Matheson, Glenn Nye, John Tanner

And nine who voted Yes last time:

Melissa Bean, Chris Carney, Bill Foster, Paul Kanjorski, Solomon Ortiz, Bill Owens, Earl Pomeroy, Zack Space, Mike Michaud

(UPDATE: Bill Owens will vote Yes. So it’s down to 12 undecideds, from 13)

If Speaker Pelosi were to get every single one of these votes – and that’s a tall order – she would still need two members from the confirmed Stupak bloc. This confirmation comes from the names on the enrollment corrections bill from last night, and also Joe Donnelly and Jerry Costello, whose public statements leading up to the vote put them squarely in the Stupak camp. There’s some question as to whether Chris Carney belongs there as well, but his name didn’t appear on the list, and he’s wavered enough in public statements that I’ll keep him undecided. These are the Stupak 11:

Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, Sanford Bishop, Jerry Costello, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus, Marcy Kaptur, Dan Lipinski, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall

So if the deal is dead, Pelosi needs everyone in the first two categories and two from the Stupak bloc. If she can peel off more from the Stupak bloc, it gives her room with the undecideds. The only other option would be to try and flip one of the sure No votes, like Stephen Lynch or Mike Arcuri. Expect the two committee chairs voting No, Collin Peterson and Ike Skelton, to get a lot of attention.

Given those odds, you can see why she explored the Stupak deal. But pro-choice women apparently slapped it down so soundly, that the path of least resistance is now this agonizing trek to peel off enough votes to get to 216.

numbers after the jump

		Voted		Retiring	Stupak	PVI	No	Leaning No	Unknown	Leaning Yes	Yes
		Aye	Nay
Definite No (28):
1	Adler, John		X			R+1	1
2	Barrow, John		X			D+2	1
3	Boren, Dan		X			R+14	1
4	Boucher, Rick		X			R+11	1
5	Bright, Bobby		X			R+16	1
6	Chandler, Ben		X			R+9	1
7	Childers, Travis		X			R+14	1
8	Davis, Artur		X			D+18	1
9	Davis, Lincoln		X			R+14	1
10	Edwards, Chet		X			R+20	1
11	Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie		X			R+9	1
12	Holden, Tim		X			R+6	1
13	Kissell, Larry		X			R+2	1
14	Kratovil, Frank		X			R+13	1
15	Marshall, Jim		X			R+10	1
16	McIntyre, Mike		X			R+3	1
17	McMahon, Michael		X			R+4	1
18	Melancon, Charlie		X	R		R+12	1
19	Minnick, Walt		X			R+18	1
20	Peterson, Collin		X			R+6	1
21	Ross, Mike		X			R+7	1
22	Shuler, Heath		X			R+6	1
23	Skelton, Ike		X			R+14	1
24	Taylor, Gene		X			R+20	1
25	Arcuri, Mike	X				R+1	1
26	Lynch, Stephen	X				D+8	1
27	Teague, Harry		X			R+6	1
28	Altmire, Jason		X			R+6	1
Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
1	Baird, Brian		X	R		D+0				1
2	Matheson, Jim		X			R+15			1
3	Nye, Glenn		X			R+6		1
4	Tanner, John		X	R		R+6				1
Potential Yes-No Flips (4):
2	Foster, Bill	X				R+1			1
3	Kanjorski, Paul	X				D+4				1
4	Michaud, Mike	X				D+5			1
5	Ortiz, Solomon	X				R+2			1
6	Owens, Bill	X				R+1				1
7	Pomeroy, Earl	X				R+10			1
8	Space, Zack	X				R+7			1
Stupak Block (11):
1	Costello, Jerry	X			S	D+3	1
2	Donnelly, Joe	X			S	R+4	1
3	Driehaus, Steve	X			S	D+1	1
4	Lipinski, Dan	X			S	D+11	1
5	Stupak, Bart	X			S	R+3	1
6	Berry, Marion	X			S	R+8		1
7	Carney, Chris	X			S	R+8		1
8	Dahlkemper, Kathy	X			S	R+3			1
9	Mollohan, Alan	X			S	R+9				1
10	Kaptur, Marcy	X			S	D+10				1
11	Rahall, Nick	X			S	R+6		1
Committed Votes
	Democratic										202
	Republican						177
	TOTAL						209	5	9	6	202

Tags: Bart Stupak, Democrats, Health care, House of Representatives, Sanford Bishop, whip counts