Author: David Dayen

  • Stupak is Back: What’s an Enrollment Corrections Bill?

    Jane has gone over this, but what Bart Stupak hinted at today has apparently come true. Stupak’s four-page “enrollment corrections” bill will get some sort of vote in the House as part of the overall health care bill. You can look at the scans of the four-page document here. It’s essentially the Stupak amendment.

    Page 1
    Page 2
    Page 3
    Page 4

    On page 2, you can see clearly that it says “Nothing in this Act shall be construed to require any health plan to provide coverage of abortion services or to allow the secretary or any other person or entity implementing this Act (or amendment) to require coverage of such services,” and then later, “None of the funds appropriated by this Act… shall be expended for any abortion or to cover any part of the costs of any health plan that includes coverage of abortion, except in the case where a woman suffers from a physical disorder, physical injury or physical illness that would, as certified by a physician, place the woman in danger of death unless an abortion is performed…. or unless the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest.”

    This is the Stupak amendment, right down to the language on Page 3 about a separate abortion rider (which is not currently offered in any state where private coverage is banned). And it’s added as a “concurring resolution” to this bill.

    Now, can that work? What about reconciliation? Don’t the changes have to be budget-related? What’s the deal with this “enrollment corrections”?

    A concurrent resolution doesn’t have to be signed by the President, just adopted by the House and Senate. Enrollment corrections are typically reserved for technical changes to a bill happening in between passage and signage – before “enrollment” of the bill.

    The question here seems to come down to how this is presented. Does this enrollment correction get tucked into the reconciliation bill and then “deemed” (there’s that word again) passed by the Senate? Would it have to be a stand-alone measure? What about the Byrd rule?

    I asked Sarah Binder, a parliamentary expert and a professor at George Washington University, about all this. She doesn’t quite think it’s possible. Specifically, she says that “any enrollment corrections resolution considered to be more than a technical correction would need unanimous consent (in the Senate) to be adopted.” Failing that, it could possibly run through a cloture vote, basically 60 votes in the Senate. But if it’s inside the reconciliation process, then one Senator merely can challenge the language of one line of the bill and get the concurrent resolution ordered out of the sidecar.

    It seems it may come down to WHEN the vote happens. If it occurs before the final vote, Congress might be able to get away with having it included in the total bill. But that doesn’t seem like it would work, for reasons that David Waldman explains here:

    It seems to me that if the Senate parliamentarian is indeed insisting that the reconciliation bill address “current law,” then that means the Senate bill must be not only enrolled, but signed by the President before reconciliation can be considered, at least in the Senate. I assume the House parliamentarian has no such objection to the House beginning its work (which is curious in itself), since he’s apparently allowing the House to consider and pass reconciliation before the Senate bill is enrolled.

    Will the Senate parliamentarian insist that the bill be signed before permitting the Senate to begin its reconciliation work on the floor? He may have no say over what the House parliamentarian approves with respect to when the House passes reconciliation, but he can prevent the Senate from beginning until the Senate bill becomes “current law.”

    Nobody really knows if Stupak can pull this off; there’s very little precedent.

    If the vote occurs after the vote on the final bill, it would have to go through a very dicey reconciliation process. And as a concurrent resolution, it might have to exist as a standalone measure entirely, meaning it’s eligible for a filibuster.

    Now, we don’t know what assurances are being made on the Senate side to keep this in. Remember, if anything from the House reconciliation sidecar gets changed, the sidecar has to go BACK to the House for another vote. At which point we’re in exactly the same boat that we’re in right now. Democratic Senate leaders have already said they would whip to make no changes whatsoever to the sidecar. So there could end up being a “conspiracy of silence,” where nobody says anything about the abortion language (though presumably a Republican might) and it passes through the Senate without incident. Or Joe Biden overrules the chair on the point of order, and Democrats are whipped to sustain it (though Republicans have said they would not agree to that and would vote en masse against it).

    It’s about as clear as mud. But somehow, when something has to be done, the rules tend to melt away. It’s clear the House cannot pass the health care bill without Bart Stupak. That tends to concentrate the mind.

    The Pro-Choice Caucus, incidentally, is talking about an open revolt on this.

    The vote prompted an angry backlash from members of the Pro-Choice Caucus, who vowed to kill any future healthcare bill containing the Stupak language, which they say goes beyond current law and places more restrictions on abortion than already exist.

    Leaders of the Pro-Choice Caucus, some 30 minutes after storming into Pelosi’s office, renewed that threat.

    “This concurrent resolution which Congressman Stupak and several others have filed, from the position of the people who signed my letter back in November, is a non-starter,” said Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.), a Pro-Choice Caucus co-chairwoman. “We compromised to the concept ‘no federal funding for abortion,’ which is current law — we don’t like that. And so if Mr. Stupak and a few members, along with the Republicans, decide to use this to take healthcare down, then that loss on healthcare coverage is going to be on their hands.”

    DeGette said a move allowing the enrollment resolution to go forward would put “somewhere between 40 and 55” pro-abortion rights votes at stake.

    That math was also leading to counter-rumors, including from aides of anti-abortion rights Democrats, that Pelosi could not realistically be putting even a dozen votes from the left at stake for the sake of Stupak and his allies.

    But you know, they say a lot of things.

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  • Teague a “No,” Pelosi Would Have to Run the Table Without Stupak Bloc

    photo: Leo Reynolds via Flickr

    We’ll certainly know in the morning, but Nancy Pelosi is fast running out of options without members of the ubiquitous Stupak bloc.

    Harry Teague, one of the few remaining undecided votes, will vote No again as he did in November, blaming cost controls.

    “I had hoped to have a chance to vote on a bill that provided affordable health care options to all American families, but after reviewing the final health care reform proposal, I do not believe that the bill does enough to contain costs and it definitely does not do enough to rein in the out of control insurance companies that are driving up healthcare costs in this country,” Teague said in a statement.

    “In fact, I believe we are doing more for the insurance companies than we are for the people who need this coverage, and that is why, despite the positive steps it takes, I must vote against this bill,” Teague said.

    If you look at the numbers below, you understand why this is consequential. Teague puts the definite No votes at 210, with five leaners, four of them part of the Stupak bloc. There are only 8 undecideds left, and 208 Yes votes with leaners. So Pelosi would have to get all 8, including Stupak bloc member Kathy Dahlkemper, and hold Marcy Kaptur (who probably shouldn’t be a lean Yes). Failing that, she could try to flip Glenn Nye, or go to one of her committee chairs voting No (Ike Skelton, Collin Peterson) and ask them to walk the plank.

    But that’s a very tough road. And so Pelosi is talking to Bart Stupak. Because there doesn’t look to be another option for passage. That may result in an annual standalone vote on choice in the exchange. It may result in some “tie-bar” legislation (although that is procedurally unlikely). But it’s almost certainly going to result in something.

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  • Scott Murphy to Vote Yes; Rumors of a Fallback Stupak Deal

    Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY 20)

    The topline news is that Scott Murphy, who has gone back and forth on health care, has come out in favor of the legislation. Murphy was a No last time. His vote makes it 7 Democrats who voted against the bill last time coming around to voting for it this time.

    That means that Democrats could survive a Stupak bloc as big as 8 and win this thing, if you do the math. However, Stephen Lynch and Mike Arcuri are No votes. So that brings it down to 6. And there are potentially more than 6 Nos out there. We know about Stupak, Donnelly, Lipinski, Costello and Driehaus. But there’s also Joseph Cao. And Marcy Kaptur. And Kathy Dahlkemper. And Chris Carney. And Nick Rahall.

    Rahall told the Charleston Daily Mail that the lack of abortion language in the Senate bill is a deal-breaker for him.

    When asked if he would vote against a bill that didn’t include such language, Rahall said, “Correct.”

    Unless the Dems can peel some of those votes away, it would be very tough for them. They’d have to pick up practically all the remaining No to Yes votes.

    So that could explain this tweet from The Hill’s Jeffrey Young:

    Pro-choice female Dems are shuttling in and out of Pelosi’s office and they won’t say why.

    The Speaker is probably preparing them for pulling the trigger on a Stupak deal. Not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but that it’s in the realm of possibility.

    My running count shows 201 yes, but I’m adding Rahall and Carney to the Stupak-curious bloc and making them lean no votes. So it’s 201-209, but with leaners? 207-214. If a Stupak deal is struck, passage looks secure, unless the Pro-Choice caucus revolts. If not, Pelosi will have to draw an inside straight. It’s very tight right now.

    UPDATE: If you look hard at the numbers, you can see why Pelosi is talking with Stupak and pro-choice women. With 214 No or lean No votes (including the Stupak bloc), Pelosi would have to prevent Dahlkemper and Kaptur from joining them. Then she would need all the other uncommitted votes, save one. That means she would have to get everyone who voted yes last time, plus Jim Matheson or Harry Teague (and all the lean Yes votes who went No last time, like Brian Baird and John Tanner). It’s just not that plausible.

    The numbers…

    Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
    Aye Nay
    Definite No (32):
    1 Adler, John X R+1 1
    2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
    3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
    4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
    5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
    6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
    7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
    8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
    9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
    10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
    11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
    12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
    13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
    14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
    15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
    16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
    17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
    18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
    19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
    20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
    21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
    22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
    23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
    24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
    25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
    26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
    27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
    28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
    29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
    30 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
    31 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
    32 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
    Potential No-Yes Flips (5):
    1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
    2 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
    3 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
    4 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
    5 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
    Potential Yes-No Flips (16):
    1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
    2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
    3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
    4 Carney, Chris X S R+8 1
    5 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
    6 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
    7 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
    8 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
    9 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
    10 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
    11 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
    12 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
    13 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
    14 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
    15 Rahall, Nick X S R+6 1
    16 Space, Zack X R+7 1
    Committed Votes
    Democratic 201
    Republican 177
    TOTAL 209 5 10 6 201

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  • Health Care Whip Count: Kosmas, Cuellar to Vote Yes (200-209; 207-212 with Leaners)

    Suzanne Kosmas, long rumored as a Yes vote, will support the bill:

    Kosmas, one of 39 Democrats to oppose a similar bill in November, said in an exclusive interview with the Orlando Sentinel that she decided to change her mind because the latest version addressed some of her previous concerns about its effect on small businesses and the federal deficit.

    “I’m going to vote for healthcare reform,” she said. “I know this is not a perfect bill. But in the scheme of things, it provides the best options and the best opportunities for my constituents.”

    And Henry Cuellar, a nominal Stupak bloc member, will also support:

    Cuellar, D-Laredo, said he thought the bill looked “very promising” after reading a Congressional Budget Office estimate that it would reduce federal deficits. Cuellar said he wanted to study whether the legislation purged unpopular provisions in the Senate legislation that reserved better deals for some states than others. (It removed some of them, but not all.) “It’s certainly promising right now,” Cuellar said. “I want to see the final language [of the bill], like any good attorney.”

    In that link, Solomon Ortiz remains undecided and may be a member of the Stupak bloc. Stupak is reportedly convening a press conference tomorrow morning, maybe we’ll see all the members of the bloc them.

    But for now, confirmed Yes votes hit 200, with 209 opposed. With leaners, we’re at 207-212. And if they get all the Yes votes who voted that way the last time, they have 217.

    The numbers…

    Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
    Aye Nay
    Definite No (32):
    1 Adler, John X R+1 1
    2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
    3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
    4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
    5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
    6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
    7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
    8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
    9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
    10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
    11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
    12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
    13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
    14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
    15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
    16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
    17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
    18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
    19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
    20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
    21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
    22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
    23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
    24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
    25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
    26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
    27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
    28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
    29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
    30 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
    31 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
    32 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
    Potential No-Yes Flips (6):
    1 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
    2 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
    3 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
    4 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
    5 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
    6 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
    Potential Yes-No Flips (16):
    1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
    2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
    3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
    4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
    5 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
    6 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
    7 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
    8 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
    9 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
    10 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
    11 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
    12 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
    13 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
    14 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
    15 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
    16 Space, Zack X R+7 1
    Committed Votes
    Democratic 200
    Republican 177
    TOTAL 209 3 12 7 200

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  • Key Stupak Bloc Member, Brad Ellsworth, Reportedly a Yes

    Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) (photo: Wikimedia)

    Greg Sargent reports that Brad Ellsworth, a key potential member of the Stupak bloc, is a yes on health care.

    Another big get for Dems: Rep Brad Ellsworth, a former Yes vote who shared the concerns of the Stupak dozen and was intensely wooed by both sides, will vote Yes on the Senate bill, his spokesman confirms to me.

    “He’s a Yes,” Jonathan Kott, communications director for Ellsworth, just said by phone. “He will vote in favor of health care reform.”

    A press release detailing his rationale is forthcoming from his office.

    Ellsworth, running for US Senate in Indiana, probably couldn’t say no and expect any kind of national fundraising for his candidacy.

    Ellsworth’s Yes vote is one of the key ones needed by the leadership. That makes it 198-209, 206-212 with leaners. And importantly, under my metrics outlined in a previous post it could make Democrats as close as two votes away from passage.

    There are pitfalls, however; the Medicare reimbursement disparity being chief among them. Alec MacGillis has a very good article detailing that. An excerpt:

    A long-running tussle in Congress over regional Medicare reimbursement rates has erupted into a last-minute clash that has at least one House Democrat threatening to withdraw his support for the health-care overhaul up for a vote Sunday.

    At the heart of the dispute is an attempt by hospitals and doctors in areas with lower per-patient Medicare spending — mostly in the Upper Midwest and Northwest — to reform the Medicare payment system to reward the “high-value” care that they practice, which they argue would help reduce health-care spending over the long run […]

    Rep. Peter DeFazio, a liberal Democrat from Oregon, told The Post Friday that unless congressional leaders restore the House language on Medicare payments, he will vote against the bill. “I will oppose the bill unless they fix geographic disparity,” he said.

    “If they need my vote, they can address it….” he said. “We can shovel money into Louisiana, but our fix is gone … because there are some powerful East Coast senators who don’t want it in there.”

    UPDATE: Just spoke with Rep. Ellsworth’s office and confirmed he’s a Yes. They’re sending over a statement.

    UPDATE II: The statement, on the flip. Key line: “After assurance from the Catholic Health Association, Catholic Nuns and pro-life advocates I am confident in my heart that this bill meets my pro-life principles.” The nuns gave him cover.

    “Like most Americans I was frustrated by this process throughout. Unfortunately many in both parties made snap judgments on whether or not they would support this bill based on politics, not policy. I was sent here to look at all sides of the argument in a thoughtful manner and I knew that the status quo was no longer acceptable. I needed to answer only one question when deciding whether to support this reform: will this bill benefit Hoosiers? Put simply, in my core I know it does.”

    “There is no issue more important or more personal to every single Hoosier than our health and well-being. My job is to look beyond all the political games, study the bill carefully, and do my best to make the right decision for Indiana.”

    “After months of meetings and conversations with thousands of Hoosiers, health care experts and pro-life advocates, I am confident supporting health care reform is the right decision for Hoosiers.”

    “Starting this year, children with pre-existing conditions will never again be denied coverage. Indiana small businesses will get the tax breaks they desperately need to reduce their health care costs and invest those savings in growing their businesses and creating jobs for Hoosiers. And our seniors will see significant savings on their prescription drug bills as we start to close the Medicare Part D donut hole.

    “As a pro-life Hoosier, one of my central concerns has been preventing federal funding of elective abortion. Throughout my brief time in Congress, I have held firm to my pro-life principles, even when it meant going against my party, and I am proud of my 100% pro-life voting record on abortion-related issues. I have spent time listening carefully to constituents, pro-life leaders, policy experts and reading all the details of every bill. After assurance from the Catholic Health Association, Catholic Nuns and pro-life advocates I am confident in my heart that this bill meets my pro-life principles and upholds the policy of no federal funding for elective abortions. More than that, it invests $250 million in support services for women facing unplanned pregnancies and over a billion dollars to help families afford adoption services. These investments will reduce the number of abortions in America.”

    “In addition to meeting my pro-life principles, the plan reduces costs, improves access to affordable insurance options, covers pre-existing conditions, and does not add one penny to the deficit – my five principles for health care reform.”

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  • Allen Boyd to Vote “Yes,” Altmire “No” on Health Care Bill: 197-209 (205-212 with Leaners)

    This is the first major news of the day. Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog from the Florida panhandle, will vote for the health care bill.

    U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd, who voted against national health care last November, said today he will vote for the new bill when it comes to the House floor.

    The Monticello Democrat said he studied the revised bill and the Congressional Budget Office report on its costs and benefits. He said “it’s not perfect” but that the package meets the four criteria he set forth in a series of 16 meetings across the 2nd Congressional District last summer.

    The backstory here is that Boyd already faces a primary challenge from Al Lawson, a state Senator, and Lawson was hammering Boyd over this vote. He would have made it his entire campaign, and could have been successful.

    Boyd is the first true undecided vote to flip in favor of the health care bill. That’s significant. It makes the count 197-208, and 205-211 with leaners. Democrats need more no to yes flips to evade the Stupak bloc and pass the bill without changes to the abortion language; how many is unclear. But getting Boyd is a pretty big victory for the leadership.

    UPDATE: Here’s my best stab at analysis on this. If you add in all the Yes votes from last time who aren’t part of the Stupak bloc (including Carney, who probably is on the Stupak fence), you can get to 213. That would include: Carney, Foster, Kanjorski, Bean, Mollohan, Mitchell, Ortiz, Owe

    AND

    And now more major news: Jason Altmire has confirmed that he will vote no on the health care bill.

    Congressman Jason Altmire will vote against the latest version of health care reform when the U.S. House of Representatives votes on the bill this weekend.

    Altmire confirmed that he has decided to vote no in a telephone conversation with KDKA Political Editor Jon Delano.

    This is a blow to efforts by Democrats to avoid the Stupak problem. They’re going to have to peel off members of the Stupak bloc. Joseph Cao also called himself a “firm no” to CNN moments ago, but I already had him as a lean No. He’ll only vote for the bill if passage is assured, so he’s not a factor in whip counts.

    Altmire is the 209th confirmed no vote on the bill, with three others leaning that way. That’s 212, with only 205 confirmed or leaning yes.

    The numbers…

    Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
    Aye Nay
    Definite No (30):
    1 Adler, John X R+1 1
    2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
    3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
    4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
    5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
    6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
    7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
    8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
    9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
    10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
    11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
    12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
    13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
    14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
    15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
    16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
    17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
    18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
    19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
    20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
    21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
    22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
    23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
    24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
    25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
    26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
    27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
    28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
    29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
    13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
    30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
    Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
    1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
    2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
    3 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
    4 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
    5 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
    6 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
    7 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
    8 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
    9 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
    Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
    1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
    2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
    3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
    4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
    5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
    6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
    7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
    8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
    9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
    10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
    11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
    12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
    13 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
    14 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
    15 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
    16 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
    17 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
    18 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
    19 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
    20 Space, Zack X R+7 1
    Committed Votes
    Democratic 195
    Republican 177
    TOTAL 208 3 15 8 197

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  • Perriello a “Yes” on Health Care Bill; Stupak Talks of “Enrollment Correction”

    Tom Perriello has decided to vote for the health care bill, per CNN. I had him as a lean Yes in my whip count. So that makes it 196-208, with still 204-211 with leaners. None of the true undecideds have announced today.

    Again, if the Stupak side deal comes to pass, the whip count doesn’t matter as much, because there will be enough votes in hand to pass the bill and the only question will become who can be allowed to take a walk. My suspicion is that Pelosi and her leadership team would rather handle this another way. But with Stephen Lynch looking like a no and the Stupak gang expanding a bit in the final days, she may not have a choice.

    UPDATE: If you want to understand what Stupak means by “enrollment corrections” (see video), read this from David Waldman. He seems to think that he can get the enrollment correction inserted into the Senate bill before the President’s signature. It’s very weedy.

    And don’t forget about the DeFazio complaint. That could really screw everything up, and it’s hard to see how they can offer a firm commitment to fix the Medicare geographic disparity in the future.

    The numbers. . .

    Tuesday, 3/16/2010 Voted Retiring Stupak PVI No Leaning No Unknown Leaning Yes Yes
    Aye Nay
    Definite No (30):
    1 Adler, John X R+1 1
    2 Barrow, John X D+2 1
    3 Boren, Dan X R+14 1
    4 Boucher, Rick X R+11 1
    5 Bright, Bobby X R+16 1
    6 Chandler, Ben X R+9 1
    7 Childers, Travis X R+14 1
    8 Davis, Artur X D+18 1
    9 Davis, Lincoln X R+14 1
    10 Edwards, Chet X R+20 1
    11 Herseth-Sandlin, Stephanie X R+9 1
    12 Holden, Tim X R+6 1
    13 Kissell, Larry X R+2 1
    14 Kratovil, Frank X R+13 1
    15 Marshall, Jim X R+10 1
    16 McIntyre, Mike X R+3 1
    17 McMahon, Michael X R+4 1
    18 Melancon, Charlie X R R+12 1
    19 Minnick, Walt X R+18 1
    20 Peterson, Collin X R+6 1
    21 Ross, Mike X R+7 1
    22 Shuler, Heath X R+6 1
    23 Skelton, Ike X R+14 1
    24 Taylor, Gene X R+20 1
    25 Arcuri, Mike X R+1 1
    26 Costello, Jerry X S D+3 1
    27 Donnelly, Joe X S R+4 1
    28 Driehaus, Steve X S D+1 1
    29 Lipinski, Dan X S D+11 1
    13 Lynch, Stephen X D+8 1
    30 Stupak, Bart X S R+3 1
    Potential No-Yes Flips (10):
    1 Altmire, Jason X R+6 1
    2 Baird, Brian X R D+0 1
    3 Boyd, Allen X R+6 1
    4 Kosmas, Suzanne X R+4 1
    5 Matheson, Jim X R+15 1
    6 Murphy, Scott X D+2 1
    7 Nye, Glenn X R+6 1
    8 Tanner, John X R R+6 1
    9 Teague, Harry X R+6 1
    Potential Yes-No Flips (23):
    1 Bean, Melissa X R+1 1
    2 Berry, Marion X S R+8 1
    3 Cao, Joseph X S D+18 1
    4 Carney, Chris X R+8 1
    5 Cuellar, Henry X S D+0 1
    6 Dahlkemper, Kathy X S R+3 1
    7 Ellsworth, Brad X S R+9 1
    8 Foster, Bill X R+1 1
    9 Hill, Baron X R+6 1
    10 Kanjorski, Paul X D+4 1
    11 Kaptur, Marcy X S D+10 1
    12 Kirkpatrick, Ann X R+6 1
    13 Michaud, Mike X D+5 1
    14 Mitchell, Harry X R+5 1
    15 Mollohan, Alan X R+9 1
    16 Ortiz, Solomon X R+2 1
    17 Owens, Bill X R+1 1
    18 Pomeroy, Earl X R+10 1
    19 Rahall, Nick X R+6 1
    20 Space, Zack X R+7 1
    Committed Votes
    Democratic 195
    Republican 177
    TOTAL 208 3 16 8 196

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  • Deal with Stupak Bloc Discussed; Would Guarantee Passage of Health Care Bill

    Deal, or no deal? (photo: Rob Blatt)

    Nothing looks confirmed at the moment. But the moment House leaders reach agreement with elements of the Stupak bloc is the moment I stop ding whip counts. Because then, health care passes without too much trouble.

    And what’s the deal? A future, standalone vote on the Stupak amendment, in the House and the Senate.

    At least six anti-abortion-rights Democrats are open to supporting the healthcare bill if they can get a guarantee from the Senate that it will move separate legislation containing the House abortion language, one of those Democratic holdouts said Friday.

    Natural Resources Committee Chairman Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.), one of Rep. Bart Stupak’s (D-Mich.) gang of staunch opponents of the Senate abortion language, said they are in discussions with senators and House leaders to secure such a commitment.

    “There could be some kind of commitment from the other body to act on this later … to ensure that the Senate language does not remain law,” he said.

    (Rahall reveals himself as a member of the Stupak bloc in this exchange.)

    This has been rumored in recent days, but Pelosi and her team made the determination that Stupak wouldn’t go for a future promise. Apparently, enough of the bloc would go for it to be determinative. My guess is that Pelosi would try to round up the votes without resorting to this first, and only pull the trigger on a “third bill” if she had to do so.

    Maybe she can find the votes. But if Rahall (and in this piece, Kaptur) really are still part of the Stupak bloc, you have to figure Dahlkemper and Ellsworth, and perhaps Carney, are as well. That’s nine Yes-No flippers, and if you add Arcuri and Lynch, there almost certainly aren’t enough No-Yes flippers left on the board (you would need 10 at that point) to counteract that.

    Kaptur seemed to be movable in a separate report, and maybe the House leadership will still call the bluff. But they’d have health care reform in the bag by making this deal. At the expense of access to a legal medical procedure for women, of course.

    The Nelson amendment isn’t much of an improvement on the Stupak amendment, actually. But the humiliation of a standalone vote in the Senate would be almost unbearable. And that vote already failed in the markup of the Senate bill, so several Democrats would have to flip their vote to ensure passage.

    I don’t know why anti-abortion Democrats would need a guarantee, since (especially after the midterms) they could just get a discharge petition and force a vote like this to the floor whenever they wanted. But it is truly remarkable how reproductive choice has become the spotlight of this health care debate; it shows the power of the anti-choice movement, and the relative fecklessness of the pro-choice movement.

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  • DeFazio’s Objections Could Set Off Other Members

    Rep. Pete DeFazio (D-OR)

    I don’t take Peter DeFazio’s carping about the health care bill entirely seriously. But his substantive argument – that Democratic leaders took out a Medicare reimbursement measure that would have changed geographic disparities – could shift other members of the caucus:

    “Unless they put that back in, I can’t support it,” Defazio said, referring to the medicare disparity fix. “This is under active discussion. They just decided yesterday morning they’re stripping this out. The senate budget committee staff deliberated for 20 minutes and it was out and our leadership was going to accept that. But a number of us involved in the quality health care coalition said that’s unacceptable and we’re not going to support the bill unless you fix this.”

    The Medicare disparity fix seeks to normalize reimbursement rates across regions. It was particularly important to people in rural areas, whose doctors don’t receive as much money in reimbursement. My assumption would be that budget-counters determined that it cost too much to include in the reconciliation bill, although the Byrd rule was also flagged as a possibility.

    But if you look at who’s remaining in the whip count, a lot of those members come from rural areas. If DeFazio doesn’t carry through on his threat, those other members – who are needed to pass the bill – might.

    UPDATE: As expected, DeFazio has company on this, including Reps. Jay Inslee (D-WA) and Ron Kind (D-WI). Medicare reimbursement has been a key issue throughout this process. Caucus Chair John Larson says:

    “Several members have expressed concerns,” Larson said. We’re continuing to meet on that and if we can’t fix it because of parliamentary procedure, we believe that there are ways to fix it in other legislation.”

    So they’re asking for a leap of faith.

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  • New Health Care Whip Count: 193 Yes, 208 No (with Leaners: 203-211); Update 2x: 195 Yes

    (photo: msmail)

    Update: John Boccieri has just confirmed that he will vote for this bill–that brings the Yes column to 194.

    Update 2: Dina Titus gets us to 195 “yes.”

    Here’s the last one. We’re going to start to see this firm up, and we can focus attention on the last holdouts. We can determine if all those No-Yes flippers can offset the Stupak bloc, and if enough of them can get peeled off, that’s basically what it’s come down to. But there still may be some surprises.

    • Like Stephen Lynch (D-MA), who emerged from his meeting with President Obama still unconvinced of the merits of the bill, and still firm in his intention to vote No:

    After emerging from a 40-minute Oval Office meeting with Obama and a White House aide, Lynch (D-South Boston) said he was not persuaded and made it official: “I am firmly a ‘no’ vote.” […]

    “The president was courteous and generous with his time,” said Lynch, noting a White House aide explained how various changes made the bill attractive. “The president asked me if there was anything he could do that I should tell him, and I told him, ‘I have been over this bill and I still wasn’t satisfied.’ ”

    Apparently his offices are getting swamped today. I wouldn’t discount the role of Massachusetts in all of this, by the way, both the Scott Brown election and the fact that reform offers much less to them given their current system. But regardless, I think you have to move him to No (I had him lean No).

    • John Boccieri will hold a press conference this morning, I’m hearing at around 10:40am ET, to announce his vote. He’s a lean Yes in my count, but would be another flipper, who voted No the first time around.

    • This count will reflect the decisions of Betsy Markey, Bart Gordon and Travis Childers, which I reported on yesterday.

    • Famed secessionist Rick Perry is getting involved in the vote by hosting a conference call with district residents of “undecided” Texas congressmen. Two of them are actually undecided – Henry Cuellar and Solomon Ortiz – but I’m not thinking this will sway them.

    • Marcy Kaptur spends a whole interview with the Toledo Blade talking about the abortion language, then says abortion “should not be the issue that predominates in any health insurance debate.” Well, thanks for helping with that, Marcy. She’s becoming incoherent.

    • Bart Stupak’s a No, but if he says he’s a No he won’t get on television anymore, so he claims to be open to a deal. There may be a last-minute deal on the table where Stupak gets an annual up-or-down vote on abortion funding, but that an “if all else fails” scenario, and I think there would be too much resistance to it in the caucus.

    • The Washington Post reports that Mike Arcuri and Zack Space are both “lean No” votes. Arcuri was a No in my count after a separate report yesterday; Space was undecided. Back in January, Space said he opposed any comprehensive bill. I still think he’s gettable, but will monitor.

    • Allen Boyd told reporters he’s undecided and would give an answer in the morning.

    • Scott Murphy seemed somewhat unenthused by the CBO analysis. “The issue of cost control goes beyond just deficit spending. To have true health care reform, we need to decrease the amount our families and small businesses spend on health care,” he said. He’s still undecided (I have him lean Yes based on prior statements, but I’m rethinking that).

    • Chris Carney’s statement upon release of the bill, on the other hand, was more positive.

    So if you add that all up, I have a count of 193-208, with leaners 203-211. I expect that to change rapidly today – we could know Boccieri and Boyd in a matter of minutes.

    The numbers on the flip. . .:

    Definite YES:
    193 Democrats, including 3 who voted No last time, in November (Dennis Kucinich, Bart Gordon, Betsy Markey).

    Definite NO:
    177 Republicans

    Definite NO:
    31 Democrats.

    24 Democrats who voted No in November:
    Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow, Travis Childers.

    7 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
    Stephen Lynch, Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).

    11 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

    5 lean Yes:
    John Tanner, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Scott Murphy.

    5 undecided:
    Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.

    1 lean No:
    Glenn Nye.

    20 potential Yes-No flip votes:

    5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
    Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.

    5 lean Yes:
    Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

    9 other undecided Democrats:
    Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.

    3 lean No:
    Marion Berry, Joseph Cao.

    Democrats need 23 of a combination of the 11 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 23 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 17 uncommitted.

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  • Health Care Whip Count Update: 191 Yes, 206 No (203-210 with Leaners) Update: 193 Yes, 207 No (with Leaners: 204-211)

    Update: With public commitments from Bart Gordon and Betsy Markey, the numbers have changed. See chart after the jump for full details.  –ed.

    Lots of information, it’s coming fast and furious now. By the way, of course Democratic leaders say they’re five votes away; that’s been their entire strategy this whole time, to assume inevitability to get people on board. I prefer to count the votes rather than be swayed by anonymous sources.

    • There’s the Stephen Lynch situation. He just voted to table the GOP resolution to block “deem and pass” after whining about it all day. And he’s meeting with Obama tonight. And he’s on the AFL-CIO target list. I suspect he gets to yes, but at this stage, I’m putting him down as a lean No. Especially after this outburst:

    “There’s a difference between compromise and surrender, right? And this is a complete surrender of all the things that people thought were important to health care reform,” Lynch told reporters. When asked what might cause him to vote for the bill, Lynch said: “There’s one thing. If they put reform back in the health reform bill, that would change my position.”

    • Speaking of that AFL-CIO target list, here are the names:

    Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkepmer.

    Cardoza and Costa will come around, I’m confident of that. Charlie Wilson appeared at a ceremony talking about the benefits of the bill this week. He’s not a problem. Oberstar already proclaimed himself a yes. Michaud, however, voted with Republicans on the deem and pass rule today. I think we have to throw him in the undecided category. Everyone else there is to be expected.

    • Joseph Cao got a personal request from the President to re-read the Senate bill’s abortion language, and he will do so. I assume that, like last time, Cao won’t vote Yes until passage is secured. So there’s no reason to take him off of No at this point.

    • Luis Gutierrez, after all that, just announced his support. Glad I didn’t fall for that head fake. So ridiculous. UPDATE: the full Hispanic Caucus announced their support.

    • Betty Sutton, a lean Yes, will support the bill.

    • No vote Heath Shuler gave himself an out to eventually support the bill, but it was a pretty small one if you ask me. I say he’s a No.

    • Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s opposition hardens. However, based on Allen Boyd’s vote on deem and pass today, and some things that I’ve heard, I’m moving him back into the undecided category.

    • The Stupak amendment is all that’s holding up Brad Ellsworth.

    OK, so then Lynch is a lean No, Michaud has to be moved into undecided, Boyd goes back to undecided along with Cao (although Cao’s a lean no). Add it up and it’s 191-206; with leaners, 203-210, with 18 undecided. Democrats would need 13 of the 18.

    Full numbers after the jump. . .

    Definite YES:
    191 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.

    Definite NO:
    177 Republicans

    Definite NO:
    29 Democrats.

    23 Democrats who voted No in November:
    Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.

    6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
    Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).

    13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

    7 lean Yes:
    Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.

    5 undecided:
    Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire, Allen Boyd.

    1 lean No:
    Glenn Nye.

    20 potential Yes-No flip votes:

    5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
    Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur, *Joseph Cao.

    5 lean Yes:
    Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

    9 other undecided Democrats:
    Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean, Mike Michaud.

    3 lean No:
    Marion Berry, Joseph Cao, Stephen Lynch.

    Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 20 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 33. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 13 of the last 18 uncommitted.

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  • New Health Care Whip Count: 192 Yes, 208 No (205-210 with Leaners)

    photo: Leo Reynolds via Flickr

    We’re getting to an end game here, and so the counts will come fast and furious at this point. I think that it’s good to look at the count right when the CBO numbers have been released as a good baseline for the future.

    So here was the last whip count. Changes since then:

    • Mike Arcuri, a lean no, has told colleagues he’s a No on the bill. He voted Yes last time. In addition, I have enough information to make John Barrow a No.

    • Dan Lipinski claims that Bart Stupak has 12 members, including him, switching to No on the bill because of the abortion funding language, but I think it’s a bluff. I think there are certainly some, like Stupak, Jerry Costello (who I’m putting in the confirmed Stupak bloc), Lipinski, and Joe Donnelly, but others might be conflicted. Steve Driehaus says he’s in the bloc, but gives himself a small out. Marcy Kaptur is straight-up lying about what the abortion language in the Senate bill would do, but she’s bringing up other points as well. So it’s completely unclear.

    • In fact, I’m taking Kathy Dahlkemper off the confirmed Stupak board and into the Stupak-curious bloc. The anti-reform activists ran an ad in her district that claimed the bill would threaten Americans with cancer, basically. Dahlkemper’s parents both recently died of cancer and she is indignant about that. That could be the peg that puts her to yes. People change their votes for weird reasons.

    • We’re apparently going to hear Harry Teague’s decision today.

    • Utah doctors are making a major push to get Jim Matheson to Yes, and have gained some free media for their efforts.

    • I mentioned the immigration restrictions before. It’s going to be a very tough vote for Luis Gutierrez, but I’m still not seeing him as a No.

    • This list of labor targets on the Stupak bloc is interesting, but I’m thinking they’re flying as blind as the rest of us.

    • Suzanne Kosmas, a former No, sounds more and more like a Yes. She’s a key get for leadership. Baron Hill sounded like a Yes coming out of the caucus meeting, too. In fact, I’ll take him off the board.

    Where does that leave us? Arcuri and Costello and Barrow are No votes. Dahlkemper goes into the undecided category. Baron Hill’s a yes. We’re at 192-208, and with leaners, 205-210. I expect those leaners to get firmed up in the next few hours.

    The totals. . .

    Definite YES:
    192 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.

    Definite NO:
    178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.

    Definite NO:
    30 Democrats.

    24 Democrats who voted No in November:
    Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler, Lincoln Davis, John Barrow.

    6 Democrats who voted Yes in November (“S” for confirmed Stupak bloc):
    Mike Arcuri, Bart Stupak (S), Dan Lipinski (S), Jerry Costello (S), Joe Donnelly (S), Steve Driehaus (S).

    12 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

    7 lean Yes:
    Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.

    4 undecided:
    Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, Jason Altmire.

    1 lean No:
    Glenn Nye.

    19 potential Yes-No flip votes:

    5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
    Brad Ellsworth, Kathy Dahlkemper, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur.

    6 lean Yes:
    Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

    8 other undecided Democrats:
    Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean.

    1 lean No:
    Marion Berry.

    Democrats need 24 of a combination of the 12 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 19 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 24 out of the remaining uncommitted 31. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 11 of the last 16 uncommitted.

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  • Liveblogging the Pelosi Presser on Health Care

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) (photo by Orin)

    Here we go. The Speaker is announcing the new health care bill.

    “They say a picture is worth a thousand words, well numbers are worth a lot too.” She’s reiterating the CBO numbers. Bill will be online a little bit later today.

    Two reasons to do health care reform: 1) expand coverage, 2) reduce the deficit (health care reform is entitlement reform).

    Pelosi offers the mike to a doctor and small business owner, Ed Morris, to tell his personal story.

    Steny Hoyer is up now, reiterates that this bill is the biggest deficit reduction bill since the 1993 Clinton budget. Responds to query of what the bill does for individuals. Health care has the highest costs in the world. Harmful to small businesses, who see competition from foreign companies with lower health care costs.

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  • CBO: Health Care Bill Costs $940B, Lowers Deficit $130B

    and the loser is… (photo: scmikeburton)

    The long-awaited CBO scores on the health care bill are out, though they haven’t showed up at the CBO’s website yet. The Hill describes them:

    The comprehensive health reform legislation will cost $940 billion over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Thursday.

    The nonpartisan budget office told lawmakers that the health bill set for a vote this weekend would cut the deficit by $130 billion over the next decade, and $1.2 trillion in the second decade of the plan’s implementation.

    That would certainly satisfy the requirements of reconciliation. Previously the bill cut the deficit by $118 billion in the first ten years and around $1 trillion in the next ten.

    With this release, the House can then vote on the bill within 72 hours, as per their pledge to post the text and the CBO analysis in that period of time before a vote.

    More when I have it.

    UPDATE: Ezra Klein says the coverage estimates have been revised upwards, to 32 million more Americans covered by 2019.

    UPDATE II: A Democratic source tells me that the text and CBO analysis won’t get online for a couple hours yet. But one more piece of the puzzle: the bill extends the solvency of Medicare by 9 years, and reduces the growth of Medicare expenditures in the 10-year budget window by 1.4 percentage points.

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  • Coffin, Meet Nail: Obama Econ Team Presumes No Job Growth for All of 2010

    (photo: Tony the Misfit)

    Presidential approval and the performance of the party in power in elections has historically been tied to economic performance, and more specifically job growth. This has been proven time and again, including with this Administration, as the President’s approval ratings and Democratic performance in the generic Congressional ballot have sunk with the economic bad news.

    If the main players in Obama’s economic team – Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, Council of Economic Advisers head Christina Romer, and OMB Director Peter Orzsag – can be believed, there is no relief on the horizon for jobs, meaning what you see is what you get for the midterms:

    Employment and unemployment. In terms of the labor market, the forecast projects average job growth of about 100,000 per month in 2010, about 200,000 per month in 2011, and about 250,000 per month in 2012. Typically following a recession, we see increases in productivity, temporary employment, and the length of the workweek before employment begins to recover. For the most part, developments in recent months have been following this pattern. Productivity growth has surged; temporary help employment has risen for 5 consecutive months; and the workweek has been generally rising. We expect to begin seeing job gains by sometime this spring.

    100,000 jobs a month will not keep up with the expanding population of job seekers; historically it takes at least that many jobs created to maintain the same unemployment rate. So what Orzsag, Romer and Geithner are saying here is that the unemployment rate will remain close to 10% until the end of this year – 9.5% at the absolute best.

    You can talk about base enthusiasm or the halo effect of passing major legislation or all the rest, but job numbers like that are absolutely frightening. As Atrios said today:

    If I’d gone back in time to the end of 2008 and told the incoming Obama administration that they would pass a large stimulus bill, but nonetheless unemployment would rise to around 10% by the end of the year and then stay there for about another year and that Jonah Goldberg would, at some point, say something intelligent, they probably would have been more likely to believe the latter than the former. If they did believe me, they would have freaked because 10% unemployment for an extended period is really really bad.

    Despite some rhetoric about a jobs agenda (which has faded into the distance recently), there continues to be no sense of urgency about the jobs picture. There are enough pieces of legislation (the $154 billion dollar extenders bill, the $100 billion “Local Jobs for America” Act) in the pipeline to stimulate growth somewhat, and the hiring around the US Census will provide a short-term boost, but official Washington seems more concerned with chasing the ghosts of inflation than doing anything meaningful to arrest the jobs crisis. So it goes on, despite the electoral imperative, from the perspective of the Democrats.

    Maybe the bipartisan effort to end Chinese currency manipulation would help, but I fail to see the leverage to get China to concede that. I certainly don’t see the kind of hardball tactics that Paul Krugman outlines coming into play anytime soon.

    The contentedness in Washington, from practically all sectors, about millions of people out of work, drives the sense in the rest of the country that the political system is simply broken.

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  • Vaunted Health Insurance Rate Review Authority Kicked Out of Reconciliation Bill

    (photo: Guerilla Futures)

    In a completely obvious maneuver, the Senate parliamentarian has kicked out the Health Insurance Rate Authority from the reconciliation set of fixes. The national rate reviewer would have had the ability to cancel premium increases across the country, in association with state regulators. But it has no primary budgetary impact, so out it goes.

    “I’m crushed it’s out,” she said. But she added that she would bring it up with him one more time to try to make the case that it would be a legitimate use of reconciliation. “I’m going to make one last effort with the parliamentarian,” she said.

    It’ll be a difficult effort. Reconciliation rules require that legislation must have a direct and substantial effect on the budget to qualify for the majority-vote procedure. Merely an incidental budget effect is not enough. Feinstein’s rate authority would save the government money by reducing private insurance premiums, which would then reduce the amount of subsidies needed — but such an effect is apparently too indirect for the parliamentarian to give it the thumbs-up.

    I’ll remind everyone that this was basically the major carrot inside reconciliation, the one new thing that most people agreed would improve the bill significantly.

    This was obvious from the moment it showed up in the President’s reconciliation proposal. I wrote the day it was released:

    But there are a couple pieces of the proposal that could not really pass through reconciliation. The new federal rate reviewer, for example. I see no way that has a budget number attached to it, meaning it would be subject to a Byrd rule challenge. But this may be just what the White House WANTS. When I asked Pfeiffer about it, he said that they took the limitations of reconciliation into account, and that ultimately, what passes muster is up to the Senate parliamentarian. But there could be a vote to waive the parliamentarian’s decision, one that would require 60 votes. At that point, Republicans would have to make the choice to vote down a federal regulator devoted to making sure customers across the country don’t get gouged on their health insurance premiums. That’s smart politics, and I could see why they’d welcome such a vote.

    Of course, because that would be smart, they’re just taking it out of the bill altogether and saving themselves the trouble.

    Perhaps you’ll see a standalone bill on the rate review board in the future; it would mirror the vote in the House to repeal the insurance industry’s anti-trust exemption. You’ll notice that hasn’t moved in the Senate yet.

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  • New Health Care Whip Count: Still 191 Yes, 206 No (205-209 with Leaners)

    (photo: Leo Reynolds)

    House Democratic leaders are obviously pleased by Dennis Kucinich’s vote switch and some other recent developments. But I continue to stress that the move of one member of Congress will not lock in the bill. In fact, there have been other developments today which should discourage supporters:

    • I locked in Jason Altmire as a yes last week, but his concerns with the deem and pass strategy as well as putting student loan reform in the bill force me to take him out of that camp and back into the undecided pool. Altmire has gotten the maximum value out of his hand-wringing, appearing on virtually every news program in America the last couple weeks. I think he loves the attention. But he definitely sounds more pessimistic this week than last week.

    • While Marcy Kaptur did vote the reconciliation package out of the House Budget Committee, yesterday she voted with Republicans on a kind of “Stupak amendment,” a motion to instruct the Rules Committee on the abortion language. She also downplayed the Catholic hospitals’ support of health care reform, saying that it may be for “business reasons” (perhaps the support of Catholic nuns would sway her). Also:

    Kaptur said she’s spoken to Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI), another pro-life Dem who’s signed off on the Senate’s abortion language, but didn’t find his reasons persuasive.

    I had her at lean yes because of her committee vote, but even her article in The Hill yesterday put her at undecided for multiple reasons. Back into that camp she goes.

    • A constituent of Lincoln Davis’ pegs him as a hard No, which is frankly not surprising. He voted No last time and has avoided making any public statement whatsoever.

    • If teabaggers who rallied at the Capitol are to be believed, my skepticism of putting Sanford Bishop back to undecided has been validated. But they also apparently got John Barrow to commit to a no vote. It’s difficult to tell from their descriptions, but I’m leaving things the same on both counts. MoveOn is targeting Barrow, who already has a progressive primary challenger.

    • MoveOn’s other targets are familiar: Scott Murphy, Suzanne Kosmas, Mike McMahon, Allen Boyd, and Bart Stupak. But HCAN has added to their pro-reform ad buy in more districts, including a couple which were off the board: Gary Peters (MI-09) and Melissa Bean (IL-08). Peters, a freshman Dem, has not said much about the health care bill and is listed as a Yes by the Washington Post’s new interactive graphic. Bean, leader in the New Dems, saw a fight erupt outside her district office among protesters yesterday. I don’t know what to make of this, but I feel Bean, at least, would have the capacity to vote no, so I’ll put her in the undecided category.

    Where does that leave us? Kucinich and Kirkpatrick are Yes votes, Altmire goes back to undecided, Kaptur from lean Yes to undecided, Lincoln Davis is a No, Bean’s back to undecided.

    Meaning that we’re still at 191-206, right where we were the last time. If you push leaners, we’re at 205-209. Still lots of work for the leadership to do. And where’s that CBO score?

    The full totals on the flip. . . .

    Definite YES:
    191 Democrats, including Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), who voted No last time, in November.

    Definite NO:
    178 Republicans, including Joseph Cao (R-LA), who voted Yes in November. He’s in the Stupak bloc.

    Definite NO:
    28 Democrats.

    23 Democrats who voted No in November:
    Bobby Bright, Mike McIntyre, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Walt Minnick, Artur Davis, Chet Edwards, Frank Kratovil, Mike Ross, Dan Boren, Gene Taylor, Larry Kissell, Collin Peterson, Ike Skelton, Jim Marshall, Mike McMahon, Charlie Melancon, Tim Holden, Ben Chandler, Health Shuler, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Adler, Lincoln Davis.

    5 Democrats who voted Yes in November (confirmed Stupak bloc):
    Bart Stupak, Dan Lipinski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Steve Driehaus.

    13 potential Democratic No-Yes flip votes:

    7 lean Yes:
    Bart Gordon, Brian Baird, John Boccieri (Clyburn Three), Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, Scott Murphy, John Tanner.

    5 undecided:
    Jim Matheson, Harry Teague, Travis Childers, John Barrow, Jason Altmire.

    1 lean No:
    Glenn Nye.

    21 potential Yes-No flip votes:

    5 additional Stupak bloc (Stupak-curious):
    Brad Ellsworth, Jerry Costello, Henry Cuellar, *Marion Berry, Marcy Kaptur.

    7 lean Yes:
    Paul Kanjorski, Dina Titus, Betty Sutton, Baron Hill, Allan Mollohan, Bill Owens, Tom Perriello.

    8 other undecided Democrats:
    Zack Space, Chris Carney, Nick Rahall, Solomon Ortiz, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, Harry Mitchell, Melissa Bean.

    2 lean No:
    Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry.

    Democrats need 25 of a combination of the 13 potential No-Yes flip votes and the 21 potential Yes-No flip votes. So they need 25 out of the remaining uncommitted 34. If you’re counting leaners, Democrats need 11 of the last 17 uncommitted.

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  • Pro-Choice Caucus Pretending to Study Senate Bill

    (photo: Socceraholic)

    I don’t mean to be that cute about it, but Roll Call reported yesterday that the Pro-Choice caucus was “studying” the Senate bill and determining whether it went beyond the Hyde Amendment.

    The issue of abortion is still fracturing the Caucus, with a handful of lawmakers pledging to vote against the measure for language they say doesn’t go far enough in restricting taxpayer funding of the procedure and others threatening to oppose it because they believe the same provision too tightly limits access. Rep. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) — a Chief Deputy Whip and leading abortion-rights supporter — still needs to review the Senate-passed approach to determine whether it passes muster, said her chief of staff, Lisa Cohen. She signaled if the Colorado Democrat decides it goes further than current law in denying access to abortions, she will oppose the bill and rally other abortion-rights supporters to do the same unless leaders pledge to address their concerns later.

    But Pelosi on Monday reiterated that abortion and immigration language — another hot-button issue that’s divided Members — cannot be changed in a reconciliation bill, and she said that she is not considering offering future votes on abortion or immigration in return for Members’ support.

    It’s hard to quantify “current law” in this context. Because we know that the segregation of funds in the Senate bill is meant to stigmatize abortion services coverage and make it cumbersome for insurers, and we know that states can opt out of such coverage in their state exchanges. The NYT rounded that up in an excellent editorial the other day. We also know that the exchanges are set to expand over time. So the burdensome rules governing exchange plans will eventually cover all plans, and even before then, there will be significant spillover effects. Your insurance will, over time, not cover abortion services, and that could include costly “chemical abortions” or D&E, which run in the thousands of dollars.

    People can choose to support the bill despite this, the biggest rollback in abortion access since Roe v. Wade, on the grounds that increases in total health care access will limit abortions, or because women’s health will improve, or whatever other reason. But don’t pretend to “study” the issue. We know exactly what the Senate bill would accomplish, taking a legitimate medical procedure and making it taboo. Nobody’s leg injury is uncovered because people are uncomfortable about “paying taxpayer money” for leg injuries. Only women’s health gets treated this way.

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  • Liveblogging the Kucinich Announcement: Flips to “Yes” on Health Care Bill, Appears to Get Nothing in Return

    Not so much… (photo 2007, courtesy of CAPAF)

    It’s available at C-SPAN (CSPAN 3 on TV) if you want to follow along. Rep. Dennis Kucinich will announce his position on the health care bill within moments.

    Incidentally, since my last whip count, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona decided to support the health care bill, putting her in the Yes column. She represents the 207th Yes or lean Yes vote, according to my count. Kucinich, if he decided to change his vote and support the bill, would be 208, putting the Democrats 8 votes from passage.

    Chris Bowers has a good piece about the implications of Kucinich switching his vote, which has been rumored. I don’t know why he would hold this press conference otherwise, actually, but Dennis doesn’t exactly play by the rules, so I guess anything’s possible.

    …OK, here it is. Each generation has had to decide how to provide health care to our nation. I believe health care is a civil right. We’ve always seen resistance. I’ve spent my life striving for health care. I lived in 21 different places growing up, including a couple cars. I’ve struggled with Krohn’s disease most of my adult life. I’ve learned of the benefits of taking charge of my own health care. I’ve had access to the best practitioners, and I’ve received the benefits. Health and health care is personal.

    …Some believe health care is a privilege based on ability to pay. Obama is attempting to open health care to 30 million people within a for-profit health care system. Others believe that health care is a right, and should be non-profit. I expanded the health care debate beyond a for-profit system. The first version of health care bill made the bill worth supporting in committee. I joined Progressive Caucus in saying I wouldn’t support without a public option or an ERISA waiver for single payer.

    Some said I would cast deciding vote. President’s visit to my district underscored the urgency. I have taken this fight further than many in Congress cared to carry it.

    OH-10 district has suffered under a struggling economy. I take my responsibility personally. In the past week, it’s become clear that the vote on the final health care bill will be close. I take this vote seriously. I’m quite aware of the historic flight that has taken decades. I’ve seen the political and financial pressure against taking this minimal step. I know I have to make a decision on the bill as it is. My criticism of the legislation has been well-reported. I do not retract those criticisms. They stand as legitimate and cautionary. I have doubts about the bill. It is not a step toward anything I supported. However, after careful discussions with the President, the Speaker, I have decided to cast a vote in favor of the legislation. If my vote is to be counted, let it count now in passage of the bill, hopefully in the direction of comprehensive reform.

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  • “Deem and Pass” Strategy Rendered Useless by Right-Wing Noise Machine

    Thanks to a coordinated effort to paint a strategy long used by both parties as secretive and unconstitutional, Democrats have bungled their preferred “deem and pass” strategy for health care reform with just one vote, leaving it with pretty much no political utility. When the swing votes you need the most criticize the tactic meant to shield them from taking a standalone vote on the Senate bill, I don’t understand the logic in still moving forward with it.

    Of course Republicans agitating about this are being massive hypocrites. But as long as that doesn’t seem to matter to them, it certainly won’t matter to the traditional media. “Deem and pass” was designed as a way to avoid the standalone Senate vote and all that implied, that endangered incumbents voted for “special deals” for various states. Um, the NRCC has already cut the ads saying that, and I doubt they’ll retract them because of some procedural technicality that can allow members to claim they didn’t really vote for those deals.

    It may be easier to consolidate two votes into one, but politically, Democrats lose by taking on a strategy designed to help their members. And the members don’t want it imposed upon them because a mightly Wurlitzer campaign has made it toxic. The leadership can’t even defend it.

    Why they would use this strategy at this point is a mystery.

    UPDATE: None of this is to say that David Waldman isn’t correct in his analysis. But that basically doesn’t matter. Politically speaking, there’s no real reason to do this anymore.

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