Author: Jonathan Ratner

  • Target lowered ahead of Shoppers Drug Mart earnings

    An expected sales lift from a particularly virulent flu season still doesn’t remove a layer of uncertainty over how regulatory issues will affect Shoppers Drug Mart Corp.

    Analyst Irene Nattel of RBC Capital Markets lowered her target to $52 from $56, noting investors are cautious about potential changes to government regulations on prescription drugs in Ontario.

    “Equity investors seem to be discounting a fairly negative outcome to the current situation in Ontario despite the underlying 8% unit growth rate for the Canadian Rx segment,” she wrote in a note to clients.

    Ms. Nattel also shaved her per-share earnings estimate to 80¢ from 85¢ for the fourth quarter, which the drug retailer is set to report on Thursday. The current share price still “represents an attractive entry point” for investors, she said.

    Hollie Shaw

  • Aastra Technologies earnings preview

    Cisco Systems Inc.’s earnings beat and healthy guidance may signal a renewed spending cycle in the communications technology space, but its continued weakness in European revenues and orders doesn’t bode well for Aastra Technologies Ltd. The Concord, Ontario-based company generates about half of its revenues in Germany, France and the Nordic region, and close to 25% in other European countries.

    Aastra is likely to report fourth quarter results on Feb. 16. National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson expects revenues or $220.9-million and earnings per share of 98¢, compared to consensus at $220.2-million and EPS of $1.01. However, he warned clients that Aastra’s top-line could miss.

    The analyst is nonetheless keeping his forecasts unchanged since the fourth quarter is seasonally strong and there should be pent-up demand for Aastra’s solutions after two weak quarters.

    “We don’t expect any negative surprises regarding profitability and cash flow generation, which is our key focus,” Mr. Thompson said.

    Aastra shares are currently trading around $30. The analyst considers the stock cheap if the company executes and has a price target of $45. He also noted that it could generate annual cash EPS of $5.00

    “In our opinion, the enterprise telephony market will continue to consolidate with Aastra eventually becoming either larger through M&A or acquired.”

    Jonathan Ratner

  • Oil, China, earnings, upgrades – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 10 points in pre-opening trade. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar contributed to strength. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars including gold, silver, copper and crude oil traded higher.

    Crude oil was notably higher, up $0.92 per barrel. Another major winter storm has entered into the U.S. Mid-west and North East states.

    China’s economy continues to boom. January auto sales in China rose 116% to 1.3 million units from the same period in 2009.  That’s good news for commodities such as platinum that are used in autos.

    Several companies reported higher than expected fourth quarter earnings overnight including Teck Resources, Molson Coors, Agrium and Electronic Arts. Teck and Agrium moved higher in overnight trading, but Electronic Arts moved lower after offering negative guidance. Several U.S. investment dealers downgraded the stock this morning.

    Coca Cola added 1% after reporting fourth quarter earnings in line with expectations. Revenues exceeded expectations.

    Caterpillar added 4% after Morgan Stanley raised its rating on the stock from Underperform to Outperform. Target price was raised from $51 to $70. Infrastructure spending this spring is expected to increase demand for Caterpillar’s products.

    Monsanto added 2% after Bank of America/Merrill upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $94 to $96. Demand for agricultural chemicals has started to recover.

    McDonalds added 1% after announcing that global, same store sales rose 2.6% in January.

    Canadian National Railway added 1% after Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target price is $60. 

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site

  • Dollar, housing starts, energy stocks, base metals – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are slightly higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 2 points in pre-opening trade. Slight weakness in the U.S. Dollar contributed to strength. Commodities sensitive to weakness in the U.S. Dollar including copper, gold, silver and crude oil traded slightly higher.

    Evidence of an economic recovery in Canada continues to surface. Canadian housing starts rose 5.8% to 186,300 units in January. Consensus was a gain of 180,000.

    U.S. analysts are becoming more bullish on Canadian energy stocks. This morning Morgan Stanley raised its rating on Canadian Natural Resources from Equal Weight to Overweight.

    Credit Suisse upgraded another base metal stock this morning. Southern Copper was upgraded from Underperform to Outperform. Target price was increased from $31.50 to $34.

    Morgan Stanley upgraded Home Depot from Equal Weight to Overweight. Home Depot added 2% in overnight trade.

    UBS upgraded Harry Winston Diamond from Neutral to Buy.

    Hasbro added 9% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

    CVS Caremark added 3% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

    CIT Group added 4% after announcing that John Thain will become chief executive officer of the company. 

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site

  • Playing the Cardium

    Everything that’s old is new again, including parts of western Canada’s largest oil pool. 

    The Cardium zone has been catching much attention lately, thanks to new technology that is allowing oil and gas outfits to get at hydrocarbons otherwise beyond their reach.  Peters & Co. published a 54-page guidebook on the Cardium this week, and it came with this warning: “The recent focus has been on unconventional opportunities in the Cardium, with a proliferation in blanket statements and assumptions concerning the zone.”

    Fair enough. But, hey, sometimes you sweeping statements are helpful.

    “Nevertheless, as long as oil prices remain high (>US$75 per barrel), activity levels will mirror the commodity price and, although the long-term economics can still be debated, the payouts appear short (~32 months at US$75 per barrel), thereby limiting the economic downside,” the report said.

    Peters believes it is “critical” to distinguish between conventional and unconventional opportunities in the Cardium, and that medium-sized entities have the best shot at making a go of it.

    The break-even price for the play, Peters estimates, is about US$53 to US$64 per barrel, with the east Pembina coming in at the low end, and its western counterpart at the top. 

    Among companies operating in the unconventional Cardium Garrington zone, Peters’ top picks are NAL Resources, and Wild Stream Exploration Inc. 

    Bonavista Energy Trust Ltd., Bonterra Energy Corp., and PetroBakken Energy Ltd. are Peters’ favourites among those in the unconventional Cardium Pembina East category.

    Finally, the Calgary-based independent brokerage favours Bonterra, PetroBakken, Daylight Resources Trust Ltd., and Vermilion Energy Trust in the unconventional Cardium Pembina West group. 

    Carrie Tait

  • Toyota’s future could hinge on mechanical-electronic issue

    Whether the cause of sudden acceleration incidents in Toyota cars was due to mechanical flaws or electronic interference could be a key factor in determining the Japanese auto maker’s market share going forward.

    The mechanical versus electronic debate has come before Toyota and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the past. As it has done before, Toyota continues to express its view that electronics were not the root cause of the problem. NHTSA is nonetheless going to take a closer look at potential electronic throttle control system flaws, so these probes are worth monitoring.

    “We believe the electronic interference issue stands out as the one potential incremental threat to Toyota’s brand reputation, beyond any damage already done,” said Itay Machaeli, an analyst at Citigroup. “As we understand it, the present fix applied in the Toyota recall is mechanical in nature, so any conclusive evidence of electronics related causes would not only refute Toyota’s recent assertions, but could render the fix incomplete.”

    While Toyota is at the forefront of the sudden acceleration issue because it has absorbed most of the related incidents and complains so far, there have been others. Mr. Machaeli noted that complaint data compiled by Consumer Reports for the 2008 model year counted well over 100 complaints. Toyota lead the way at 41%, followed by Ford at 28%, Chrysler at 9%, General Motors at 5%, Honda at 4% and Nissan at 3%.

    While a complaint doesn’t necessarily mean there was a vehicle malfunction, this shows that automakers as a group face headline risk if the Toyota investigation escalates further. There could also be the potential for fail-safe regulations that will force automakers to adopt new technologies across all vehicles. The related costs will be more significant if this is required quickly.

    Toyota’s new plan for fiscal 2009 reflects a roughly ¥180-billion impact from the two recalls related to floor mats and accelerator pedals (recall costs ¥100-billlion + ¥80-billion in decreased sales). At the company's third quarter results briefing, it said the string of recalls associated with floor mat and accelerator pedal problems would cost it about 100,000
    units in lost sales (80,000 units in North America, 20,000 units in Europe).

    “The company’s fundamental profitability is recovering, but in addition to near-term economic losses, including from repairs and sales opportunity losses, there are concerns in the market about significant long-term adverse effects on Toyota’s reputation, sales and earnings,” UBS analyst Tatsuo Yoshida said in a note to clients. “The company is likely to come under intense scrutiny in official investigations and Congressional hearings and concerns are very likely to be inflated by media reports.”

    However, as long as Toyota does not make any mistakes in terms of its response to customers, the media, regulatory officials, or Congress, lingering long-term adverse effects on the company’s reputation, sales or earnings are unlikely. But the media storm has to pass first.

    Jonathan Ratner

  • Asia’s new industry clusters

    Investors should jump on board Asia’s new industry clusters, according to UBS, the Swiss bank. It defines an industry cluster as a group of firms that operate in the same region and the same industry, serving global needs–think the Silicon Valley in California or the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.

    UBS believes that spotting an industry cluster while it’s still in its growing stages, and following the top firms in it, can allow you to take early stakes in emerging global leaders. The bank sees a number of emerging industry clusters in Asia, including medical tourism in Singapore and Thailand, auto parts in India, and water technology in China.

    The case for the medical tourism cluster is particularly easy to understand. Singapore and Thailand are both popular tourist destinations, with high-quality medical facilities accredited by international agencies.

    These Asian hospitals have a huge advantage over their U.S. counterparts. A heart valve replacement, for instance, will cost you US$150,000 in the United States, but only US$10,000 to US$12,500 in Thailand or Singapore. The combination of aging North American boomers, long waiting lists for medical care in Canada and the United States, and pinched public-health budgets should provide these facilities with a steady stream of international patients.

    UBS lists 17 companies listed on the Singapore and Thailand stock exchanges with US$10 million or more in market cap and direct exposure to this health care cluster. They include Raffles Medical, which operates medical and dental clinics, and Bangkok Dusit, which runs Bangkok General Hospital. While these specific firms may not be tomorrow’s leaders, they are evidence that the industry is growing and attracting local investors. 

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post

  • Baidu’s monopoly opportunity

    Google Inc.’s impasse with the Chinese government could lead to Baidu Inc. becoming a monopoly in China’s search market. This obviously has long-term strategic implications that the market is trying to wrap its head around.

    In order to value Baidu shares, RBC Capital Markets Stephen Ju introduced a scenario analysis based on a 75% chance that Google withdraws from China. As a result, his price target climbs from US$403 to US$554.

    “We have assigned a higher probability to the scenarios that contemplate a Google exit, as we believe its position in China has become untenable,” Mr. Ju told clients.

    The Chinese government has little incentive to agree to any concessions on unfiltered search, so Google’s days in China are numbered, he added.

    However, Alibaba Group’s Taobao is apparently preparing a general search platform as it seeks to leverage its traffic into additional businesses. Since e-commerce traffic comes with the intent to buy something, it is very valuable, which makes Taobao a potential threat to Baidu in the long run.

    Jonathan Ratner

  • Gap upgraded to Buy at Citigroup

    Citigroup upgraded Gap Inc. from Hold to Buy on Friday as it is encouraged by solid top-line performance at Old Navy and Banana Republic.

    While acknowledging that the Gap division is still a work in progress, analyst Kimberly Greenberger feels the franchise as a whole offers attractive margin and free cash flow characteristics.

    She noted that Gap shares are down 7% so far in 2010, which presents an attractive buying opportunity.

    The analyst’s price target on Gap shares climbs from US$23 to US$24.

  • Employment, USD, earnings, Sunoco – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures up 1 point in pre-opening trade. Index futures recovered from overnight losses following release of the January U.S. employment report. Consensus for Non-farm payrolls was unchanged from December. Actual was a decline of 20,000. Consensus for the unemployment rate was unchanged from December at 10.0%. Actual was a drop to 9.7%, the lowest level in nine months. Consensus for Hourly Earnings was a gain of 0.2%. Actual was a gain of 0.3%.

    Additional strength in the U.S. Dollar Index dampened enthusiasm for U.S. equity index futures.

    Canada announced an encouraging January employment report. Consensus for employment was a gain of 15,000. Actual was a gain of 43,000. The Canadian Dollar gained 0.34 to 93.55 following release of the news.

    Several companies reported better than expected fourth quarter earnings. Consensus for Brookfield Asset Management was $0.33 per share. Actual was $0.35. Consensus for Weyerhaueser was $0.41 per share. Actual was $0.52 per share. Weyerhaueser is benefiting from a surge in lumber prices. Lumber prices are moving higher in anticipation of strong growth in infrastructure spending this spring. 

    Sunoco, a major U.S. oil refiner continues to struggle. Consensus for fourth quarter earnings was a loss of $0.25 per share. Actual was a loss of $0.27 per share. Refiners such as Sunoco cannot continue to produce gasoline for sale at a loss. The stage is set for a significant recovery in gasoline prices this spring. 

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site

  • Lumber market may point to strength in housing

    One of the surprising bright spots in global commodity markets over the past few weeks has been lumber, a commodity that you would think would be in agony, given the sad state of the U.S. home market. Instead, raw lumber prices are up more than 25% this year, according to Jon Markman of Markman Capital Insight.

    Markman says that producers have cut back so much on their harvesting and cutting that even meager demand can send prices upward. It’s far too soon to hail the higher prices as a sustained trend, but even a modest rise in lumber prices would come as good news to Canada’s beleaguered forestry industry.

    Some observers think the recent increase could signal the beginning of a broader thaw in the U.S. housing market.

    Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that lumber prices tend to be a good leading indicator of U.S. single-family home sales. If that relationship continues to hold true, it’s good news for the stocks of U.S. homebuilders such as D.R. Horton Inc. and Toll Brothers Inc.

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post

    Photo: Plantation workers tie logs to load a forest train at the lumber storage yard in Jilin Province, China. (China Photos/Getty Images)

  • Canadian banks expected to post lower provisions for bad loans

    For the first time in recent memory the domestic banks will post sequentially lower provisions for bad loans in the upcoming quarter, says John Aiken, an analyst at Barclays Capital.

    That should be the headline news, according to Mr. Aiken, but instead it will likely be overshadowed by declines in trading revenue based on what’s happening in the sector in the United States.

    “With the U.S. integrated banks incurring declines of more than 50% sequentially in their trading revenues, it is highly unlikely that the Canadian banks will be able to escape similar fates,” he said in a note to clients.

    He predicts Royal and National Bank will take the biggest hits.

    Meanwhile, net interest income is also projected to decline on the back of lower lending.

    And with regulatory capital rules still up in the air, banks will continue to hoard capital and avoid acquisitions and share buy-backs at least until the second half of 2010.

    However, despite the headwinds Mr. Aiken is calling for a sound quarter.

    John Greenwood

  • Haiti’s untapped oil, gas and mineral wealth

    Beneath the rubble and tragedy of Haiti lies what some geophysicists believe may be one of the globe’s richest zones for oil and gas hydrocarbons outside the Middle East.

    The same tectonic plates of North America, South America and the Caribbean that rub together to cause earthquakes, also form one of the world’s most active geological zones, and can push vast volumes of oil and gas up from the Earth’s mantle, according to economic researcher and anti peak oil theorist F. William Engdahl.

    In an article titled The Fateful Geological Prize Called Haiti, he explains that the country lies in an unusual zone that may be straddling one of the world’s largest unexplored zones of oil, gas and valuable rare strategic minerals.

    The massive oil reserves of the Persian Gulf and the region stretching from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden are apparently at a similar convergence zone of large tectonic plates. So to are oil-rich zones in Indonesia and offshore California.

    “In short, in terms of the physics of the earth, precisely such intersections of tectonic masses as run directly beneath Haiti have a remarkable tendency to be the sites of vast treasures of minerals, as well as oil and gas, throughout the world,” Mr. Engdahl writes.

    He points out that in 2005, after Haiti’s first democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, was ousted, University of Texas geologists began mapping the geological data of the Caribbean Basins. The sponsors of the project are Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and BHP Billiton.

    Mr. Engdahl goes on to ask why the region hasn’t been mapped earlier, particularly given the vast oil production that exists off Mexico, Louisiana, and the entire Caribbean, along with a focus on energy security in the United States.

    “Now it emerges that major oil companies were at least generally aware of the huge oil potential of the region long ago, but apparently decided to keep it quiet.”

    He theorizes that a U.S. military occupation of Haiti under the guise of earthquake disaster ‘relief’ would give Washington and private business interests tied to it a geopolitical prize of the first order.

    Meanwhile, Haitian Lawyers’ Leadership Network founder Marguerite “Ezili Danto” Laurent, suggested that the United States, France and Canada are engaged in a balkanization of the island for future mineral control. This is also supposedly being done under the guise of emergency relief work.

    She cites rumours that suggest Canada wants the North of Haiti, where it already has mining interests. The United States apparently has its eyes set on Port-au-Prince and the island of La Gonaive just offshore, which has been identified as having vast oil resources and is bitterly contested by France. Meanwhile, China is cited as potentially objecting to such a division of Haiti’s wealth given its veto power at the United Nations.

    Clearly, everybody wants to get in the earthquake business in some way or another, notes Jerry Mazza. And while conspiracy theories abound about the motivations behind foreign aid coming to Haiti, the possibility of vast amounts of resources below the surface presents a promising possibility for a country in such desperate need.

    Jonathan Ratner

    Photo: A Haitian woman carries a sack of rice through the ruins of  buildings in downtown Port-au-Prince on February 04, 2010. The January 12 earthquake that hit Haiti killed around 170,000 people and left one million homeless and short of medicine, food and water in the impoverished Caribbean nation of nine million people. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images)

  • Cisco results signal start of capex cycle

    Cisco Systems Inc. came through with an impressive earnings beat for the second quarter and its sales guidance for the subsequent three months was well ahead of consensus, but the company’s outlook has much broader positive implications for the communications technology sector. The next capex cycle appears to have arrived.

    Cisco said it saw “very strong balanced growth” in almost all major geographic and market segments. It also added more than 2,100 employees in the second quarter (roughly half through acquisitions) and plans to add another 2,000 to 3,000 in the next several quarters.

    “Headcount growth is certainly a positive indication that Cisco expects a renewed spending cycle to be more than just a short-term inventory replenishment,” said National Bank Financial analyst Kris Thompson.

    Cisco’s Switches and Routers segments finally posted year-over-year revenue growth as service providers and enterprise customers began spending on their communications networks again.

    “It was only a matter of time until infrastructure spending accelerated,” the analyst told clients, highlighting hiring plans as an indication that customer spending will be sustained.

    While Cisco appears to be capturing the leading edge of recovering tech spending, higher revenues are not coming for free given the employee additions in the next two to three quarters. This will result in modest margin contraction and cap earnings per share upside, according to J.P.Morgan analyst Steven J. O’Brien.

    Citigroup’s Richard Gardner continues to see a return of 15 % to 20% on Cisco shares in the coming year as the company’s fundamentals rebound with the cyclical recovery in its top-line growth. However, those returns don’t place the stock among his top picks in IT Hardware space. Mr. Gardner see better leverage and top-line growth with Hewlett-Packard Co. in large cap enterprise hardware and Juniper Networks Inc. in networking.

    Meanwhile, Mr. Thompson at National Bank said the networking giant’s upbeat outlook should be a positive for several names.

    For example, he is cautiously optimistic that EXFO Electro-Optical Engineering Inc.’s recent backlog strength is the beginning of a sustainable carrier capex cycle. The analyst expects the stock will continue to move higher given the company’s focus on next-generation testing equipment, carriers moving to higher speed networks and the release of pent-up capex spending.

    The take-away for Aastra Technologies Ltd. is not positive since Cisco’s weakest regions were concentrated in Europe. Aastra generates about half of its revenues in Germany, France and the Nordic region, and close to 25% in other European countries. Nonetheless, Mr. Thompson noted that the company has a solid free cash flow model and should double its dividend over the course of 2010.

    So while picking winners will surely be more difficult this year than it was in 2010, most communications equipment vendors will benefit from a new carrier capex cycle.

    Jonathan Ratner

  • Jobless claims, USD, retailers, ECB, earnings – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 12 points in pre-opening trade. Weakness accelerated after release of a disappointing jobless claims report released at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly jobless claims surprisingly rose 8,000.

    A stronger U.S. Dollar also weighed on equity index futures. Commodities priced in U.S. dollars including gold, silver and crude oil moved slightly lower.

    Index futures did not respond to better than expected January sales announced by most major U.S retailers.

    Slightly offsetting the jobless claims report was news that Productivity in the fourth quarter improved greater than expected. Consensus was an increase of 5.9% versus 8.1% in the third quarter. Actual was an increase of 6.2%.

    Europe’s central bank is continuing its easy money monetary policy. It maintained its overnight lending rate at 1.0%.

    Several companies reported higher than consensus quarterly earnings overnight including Domtar, Canaccord, Open Text, Cisco, Clorox and Visa.

    BCE reported fourth quarter earnings in line with expectations. It also offered mildly positive guidance for 2010.

    ‘Tis the season for analysts to take a more positive stance on the Metals and Mining sector! Yesterday, UBS upgraded key stocks in the sector. This morning, Credit Suisse upgraded several stocks in the sector from Neutral to Outperform including BHP Billiton and Teck Resources.

    Open Text was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Benchmark Company. Target is $48.

    Visa was upgraded by Barclays from Equal Weight to Overweight. Target was raised from $91 to $97. 

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site

  • Stocks most likely to raise dividends

    Dividend-paying stocks have outperformed their non-paying counterparts over the past 30 years. But even more impressive is the track record of companies that have increased their dividend payouts over that period.

    With that in mind, the real focus for investors becomes what companies to buy?

    Fortunately, Chad McAlpine, quantitative analyst at RBC Capital Markets, has done the hard work and identified those stocks that have a better-than-average probability of raising their dividends in the coming years.

    S&P/TSX composite and S&P 500 stocks were screened for having the capacity to increase their dividends, with projected payouts on estimated earnings ratios less than 50%.

    The second criteria is a history of consistent dividend hikes – specifically, having increased distributions in each of the past five years and current indicated annual dividends being greater than 12-month trailing dividends.

    Thirdly, companies must have an incentive to raise their dividends. Therefore, stocks must have estimated payout ratios no greater than 5% above their current trailing payout ratios.

    Now for the stocks…

    There were 80 S&P 500 companies listed as potential dividend growth candidates, while 16 TSX-listed names made the cut. They include:

    Rogers Communications Inc.
    Intact Financial Corp.
    CCL Industries Inc.
    ATCO Ltd.
    Toromont Industries Ltd.
    Saputo Inc.
    Canadian National Railway Co.
    Metro Inc.
    Home Capital Group Inc.
    Empire Co. Ltd.
    Cogeco Cable Inc.
    Tim Hortons Inc.
    SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.
    Suncor Energy Inc.
    ShawCor Ltd.
    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

    Jonathan Ratner

  • Oil may not recover in sync with broader markets

    The so-called Great Recession hit crude markets hard because with industrial activity slowing down, the need for massive amounts of energy dipped. Now a recovery is emerging, but the oil markets may not recover in sync with the overall markets.

    Global demand for crude in 2009 ended 0.3% over its 2008 level, but compared to 2007, it was down about 2%, according to Dina Cover, an economist at TD Bank.

    “With consumption still quite weak, there is plenty of oil to go around,” the number-cruncher said. Total global production increased by 1.6% in the fourth quarter, and was 1.3 million barrels per day greater than demand. “In fact, after showing great improvement through most of 2009, the supply-demand balance shot up dramatically during the last two months of the year.”

    Global inventories are at 95 days supply, compared to the five-year average of 86 days. 

    “What's more, OPEC [the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries] spare capacity jumped from 1.5 million barrels per day to 4.4 million barrels per day in 2009, and is expected to continue to increase through 2011 to nearly 6 million barrels per day as new capacity comes online.”

    Put it all together and despite a rebound in demand for oil, the excess supply, coupled with increasing capacity, will keep the lid on crude prices. TD predicts oil to stick around $80 per barrel in 2010, and climb to U$85 in 2011.

    Carrie Tait

  • Spain could cause nightmare for EU

    While Greek’s debt woes are grabbing the headlines, the real hole in the Eurozone may be Spain. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA—BBVA to friends—reported surprisingly bad results last week and worries are growing that this is just the beginning of a Spanish banking crisis that could be as bad if not worse than the U.S. one.

    A few folks have been worrying about this possibility for a while. Late last year Variant Perception, an economic research house, argued that the collapse of Spain’s property bubble had profound and dismaying implications for Europe’s banking system. It noted that Spain had as many unsold homes as the United States although the United States is about six times bigger.

    John Hempton of Bronte Capital, the Australian money manager, has also been on the case. Last year he pointed out what appear to be interesting discrepancies in how BBVA has been accounting for losses on its U.S. operations. At least some of the concerns he pointed out back then appear to be reflected in the bank’s fourth-quarter earnings, which were 94% lower than the same quarter a year before because of write downs on the bank’s U.S. business and a reassessment of its Spanish property holdings.

    The question now is whether BBVA has fully confessed to all its problems or is merely beginning to acknowledge them. If the latter, watch out below. The combination of Greek and Portuguese sovereign credit woes, combined with a distressed Spanish banking sector, could turn into a nightmare for the European Union.

    Freelance business journalist Ian McGugan blogs for the Financial Post

  • Time for a retail-fuelled rally

    The rally in equity markets has reached a turning point that should now see Canadian retail investors start pouring more money into stocks, according to a new report from Scotia Capital. This comes as concerns mount about the source of money to feed continued market inflows.

    Historically, turning points in the S&P/TSX composite index have led turning points in net inflows into equity mutual funds by about six months, economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes said in a research note. This has been consistent in both market directions.

    They looked at the TSX’s year-over-year percentage change versus net quarterly inflows into equity mutual funds and found that the equity market rally has just reached the point at which it should begin to translate into retail inflows. In fact, the charts suggests the reaction time may be a little bit faster this time around.

    The economists cite three other forces that may serve to complement this historical relationship.

    One is the fact that this lagged relationship between market performance and fund flows occurs as RRSP season gets going over the next two months.

    It is also set against the backdrop of massive amounts of cash on the sidelines and near-cash balances earning very little in returns after inflation and taxes.

    Third is the fact that confidence in the Canadian economy continues to improve. Scotia notes that Canadian households managed to regain much of their lost retirement wealth in balanced portfolios, while also enjoying record house prices.

    The net effect of all this should encourage retail investors to sweep non-tax-sheltered deposits across to tax sheltered vehicles like RRSPs and TFSAs with a potential equity bias, the economists said.

    “This effect does not require a higher personal saving rate (that would come at the expense of consumer spending) in order for it to occur.”

    Jonathan Ratner

  • ADP survey, potash, IMO, upgrades – Vialoux

    U.S. equity index futures are slightly lower this morning. Futures responded to the ADP Payroll survey, frequently an early indicator of the monthly employment report to be released on Friday showed a 22,000 reduction in employment in the private sector. Consensus was a gain of 20,000.

    More evidence of a recovery in commodity prices has surfaced. Belrussian Potash announced a 6% increase in potash prices. Demand for fertilizer once again is increasing.

    Imperial Oil reported less than expected fourth quarter earnings. Consensus was $0.65 versus $0.76 per share last year. Actual was $0.55 per share. The decline in profitability by its refining and marketing division was notable. Look for refiners in North America to take action to increase profitability in their refining operations. Gasoline prices will move higher this spring.

    Enbridge reported slightly less than consensus earnings. However, the company also announced a 15% increase in its dividend.

    Pfizer is down 2% after reporting slightly lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings.

    Time Warner reported higher than expected quarterly earnings and raised its dividend.

    Goldman Sachs made several recommendation changes in the energy sector. Canadian Natural Gas, Occidental Petroleum and Petrobras were upgraded from Buy to Conviction Buy. Suncor was downgraded from Conviction Buy to Buy.  

    McDonalds added 1% after Goldman Sachs raised its rating from Buy to Conviction Buy.

    Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on the gold sector. Kinross was rated a Buy with a target price of $21. Newmont was rated a Buy with a target price of $66.

    Deutsche Bank upgraded United Parcel Services from Hold to Buy. Target price was raised from $67 to $70.

    Walmart added 1% after Stifel Nicolaus raised its rating from Hold to Buy. Target price is $62.

    UBS upgraded the Mining and Metals sector. Notable among upgraded stocks was Anglo American. 

    Don Vialoux, chartered market technician, is the author of a free
    daily report on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and
    Exchange-Traded Funds. For more visit Don Vialoux's Web site