Author: Scott Pianowski

  • Ubaldo Jimenez, you’re a big star now

    The scary thing about Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter Saturday is that it doesn’t represent the best he can pitch. He’s got three nasty pitches and he’s clearly developed into one of the Top 10 starters in the majors, no matter that he spends half of his time toiling in Coors Field. Whatever you paid for him on Draft Day, you’re probably in line to make a significant profit in 2010. 

    Jimenez struggled with his control in the early innings at Atlanta, collecting six walks over the first five frames. But he found his best stride in the later innings and was dialing the fastball in the 98 mph range for the ninth. When he’s at his best, you’ll see a lot fewer walks and more than the seven strikeouts he collected here. But fantasy owners certainly aren’t going to complain about the surprise gift Jimenez presented to them.

    Jimenez needed 128 pitches to complete the gem, the highest total anyone’s thrown this year. It will be interesting to see if there’s any sort of carryover effect when he toes the rubber at Washington Thursday.

    Say you were drafting from scratch tomorrow – what would your pitching draft board look like and how would Jimenez fit into the mix? Here’s a quick glance at the big names as I currently see them. As always, offer your respectful disagreement in the comments.

    $33 Tim Lincecum(notes)
    $33 Roy Halladay(notes)
    $31 Felix Hernandez(notes)
    $28 Zack Greinke(notes)
    $28 CC Sabathia(notes)
    $28 Dan Haren(notes)
    $27 Adam Wainwright(notes)
    $27 Ubaldo Jimenez(notes)
    $26 Justin Verlander(notes)
    $25 Josh Johnson(notes)
    $24 Ricky Nolasco(notes)
    $24 Chris Carpenter(notes)
    $23 Jon Lester(notes)
    $22 Matt Cain(notes)
    $21 Yovani Gallardo(notes)
    $21 Josh Beckett(notes)

  • Closing Time: Another Arizona giveaway – Chad Qualls sits, everyone else implodes

    Smart owners were grabbing Juan Gutierrez(notes) in mixed leagues Thursday night – and those same smart owners are probably dropping him now. The balls roll funny for everybody, kid.

    We knew Arizona would give Chad Qualls(notes) the night off Friday at San Diego – he’s been busy and ineffective – and with that, Gutierrez, the No. 2 man, got the call when the Diamondbacks had a one-run lead in the ninth. Gutierrez quickly got in a jam by walking the leadoff batter, with a sacrifice and strikeout to follow.

    One more out and Gutierrez is the hero, but not on this night. David Eckstein(notes) rapped a double over Geraldo Parra’s head, squaring the game, and two batters later Chase Headley(notes) hit a titanic home run to right field that probably hasn’t landed yet. Left-handed batters have been the problem with Gutierrez over his brief career (.269 BAA, 1.56 WHIP), and the pitch to Headley had "hit me" written all over it (adjust your set if you didn’t make out the lettering).

    Gutierrez wasn’t the only bullpen goat in this loss – Bobby Howry allowed a run in the seventh and Aaron Heilman(notes) was a mess in the eighth, though just one run came out of it. Edwin Jackson(notes) (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 3 K) deserved a better fate.

    That’s the lead item for tonight. Check back a little later and I’ll add 1,000 bonus words or so.

  • Closing Time: With Chad Qualls struggling, get Juan Gutierrez on the horn

    We’ve seen plenty of ninth-inning turmoil through the opening two weeks of 2010 and there’s no letup in sight. Get out the log for struggling closers, it’s time to make another entry. Chad Qualls(notes), you’re the next stopper under the microscope.

    Qualls had a steady if unspectacular season as Arizona’s closer in 2009 (3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 24 saves in 29 chances), but his season ended prematurely with a dislocated kneecap in August and not much has gone right since. Offseason surgery on the left knee pushed Qualls back for spring training, he didn’t get many people out when he finally started working in March (9.2 IP, 12 H, 8 R), and things haven’t gone well in the real games. Qualls allowed a home run in his first appearance (a mop-up assignment) and he’s really come unglued this week, blowing two consecutive saves at Los Angeles.

    The latest mishap came Thursday night as Qualls coughed up a two-run lead in the ninth. The tying run was a little on the cheesy side – a piddly infield hit followed by a wild throw – but Qualls can’t blame his teammates too much, he made his own mess. He started the carnival by walking the leadoff man, and Manny Ramirez(notes) and James Loney(notes) scorched base hits later in the frame.

    With Qualls struggling to find his form, it’s time to kick the tires on Arizona’s main setup man, Juan Gutierrez(notes). You’ll remember Gutierrez was sharp as the temporary closer down the stretch in 2009 (converting on 8-of-9 save chances), and he’s off to a superb start this time around, with four scoreless innings already in the books (1 H, 1 BB, 4 K). If A.J. Hinch decides to make a switch for the ninth inning, there’s little doubt Gutierrez would get the first look. Gutierrez has already become a hot pickup into the overnight, and that trend will continue Friday as the save carousel continues to turn.

    (Yep, there’s a lot more stuff to talk about Thursday, but we felt it was important to get the Arizona news out to you as soon as possible. Check back shortly for the rest of this morning’s Closing Time, in full.)  

  • Closing Time: Brad Penny hits the lottery in St. Louis

    If you’re looking for details on Black Wednesday, the day three closers died, let’s point you to the Andy Behrens Experience. The Brian Fuentes(notes) story is here; the Mike Gonzalez news is here; and the Jason Frasor(notes) skinny is here. For the rest of Wednesday’s fantasy breakdown, read on.

    Location, location, location, the Brad Penny(notes) story. There’s still time to get on board with this solid, affordable mixed-league starting pitcher.

    Penny had his way with the Astros Wednesday night (like everyone else, I suppose), allowing just one unearned run over seven crisp innings. It was Penny at his best – two-seam fastballs on both sides of the plate, good command of his off-speed pitches, plenty of ground balls. He’s now worked 14 innings through two starts, with dynamite results (9 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K). Why is this guy owned in just 21 percent of Yahoo! leagues? We can’t blame it all on the streamers.

    I can’t guarantee you that Penny will do well next week at Arizona, but he’s spotted for a big season overall. The NL Central environment certainly looks cushy, Busch Stadium doesn’t hurt the cause, the Cardinals have plenty of pls. defenders at key positions (especially catcher Yadier Molina(notes) and shortstop Brendan Ryan(notes)), and Dave Duncan is around to smooth out any of the rough edges. What’s not to like?

    I always root for guys like Jeff Francoeur(notes) because the statheads hate him. I know we’re looking at a tiny sample, but Frenchy has a .429 average and three homers after Wednesday’s play, along with six walks and just three strikeouts. He also was quietly effective in half a season with the Mets last year (.311/.338/.498); the OBP gets everyone upset, but those other numbers are in place. He’s mixed-league worthy in my book.

    David Aardsma(notes) and Ryan Franklin(notes) were panned by a lot of roto scribes this past winter because they had the nerve to outperform their peripheral stats in 2009. Okay, it’s important to note when someone’s ERA isn’t supported by their component numbers, I completely grant you that. But when it comes to handicapping the saves chase, possession of the job and the endorsement of the manager probably means more than everything else. It’s not that hard to get three outs with no one on base (while nursing a lead of 1-3 runs), and both of these guys were solid at the gig in 2009 (Aardsma converted 38-of-42, while Franklin went 39-of-43).

    Both of these working-class closers are off to good starts in 2010; Aardsma hasn’t allowed a run en route to four saves (including one Wednesday against Oakland) and Franklin has come around after an opening-day meltdown in a work-inning (he snagged his third save Wednesday). Trust, it’s a wonderful thing.

    A couple of intriguing American League starters met up in Cleveland Wednesday night, with Colby Lewis(notes) (5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 10 K) getting the better of Justin Masterson(notes) (6 IP, 4 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K). Masterson was on the sleeper radar after what he showed us late last year (a 12-strikeout effort out the door against Chicago) while Lewis was honing his craft in Japan. I’d probably prefer Masterson for the long haul – he’s shown better control so far and he’s got an easier home park – but both pitchers look streamable when the matchup is right. The challenges get harder next week; Masterson works at Target Field, while Lewis reacquaints himself with Fenway Park.

    Whenever a team has a closer change, you want to pay extra attention to the next save chance and how the bullpen is handled. With that in mind, consider how the Angels closed up their Wednesday victory at New York – Kevin Jepsen(notes) had a solid eighth (scoreless, one walk) and Fernando Rodney(notes) worked a perfect ninth. The first step is the most important in this gig; Rodney just bought himself a longer leash while Brian Fuentes rehabs.

    Not an Injury Blog: The Phillies put Jimmy Rollins(notes) (calf) on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday but they’re whistling an optimistic tune; they think he can return in 2-4 weeks. Shane Victorino(notes) picks up the leadoff assignment while Rollins is out, while the roto-insignificant Juan Castro(notes) steps in at shortstop. … Kelly Johnson(notes) left Wednesday’s game early with a stiff back. … Miguel Montero(notes) doesn’t have any ligament damage in his knee, so look for him to return in 4-6 weeks. … Jayson Werth(notes) (hip) was kept out of the starting lineup Wednesday but later appeared as a pinch hitter.

    Speed Round: David Ortiz(notes) will get a much-needed day off Thursday. He’s off to a 7-for-26 start, with 13 strikeouts and a .269 slugging percentage. … When Jonathan Sanchez(notes) has his good stuff, you wonder how anyone gets a foul-tip against him. Wednesday was one of those days as he toyed with the Pirates (8 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 11 K). … Old friend Ty Wigginton(notes) is getting some infield play in Baltimore while Brian Roberts(notes) rehabs. Wiggy had two hits Wednesday on the heels of a two-homer game Tuesday, and he’s carrying three positions of eligibility. … Jorge Cantu’s(notes) starting to have that 120-RBI look to him, isn’t he? … The trimmed-down Andruw Jones(notes) clubbed his third homer Wednesday, if you wanted to know. … Welcome to the season, Julio Borbon(notes) (2-for-4, stolen base). … Brett Myers(notes) deserved a better fate at St. Louis, taking the loss despite a very useful line (7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K). His curve was outstanding all night. … Say whatever you want about Albert Pujols(notes) and Hanley Ramirez(notes), but for my money the best player in the NL is Chase Utley(notes). He’s in a perfect spot, the No. 3 man in Philly’s loaded lineup, and he’s off to a strong push in 2010 (.367, four homers). Sooner or later he’ll have an MVP trophy to match Rollins and Ryan Howard(notes).Tommy Hanson(notes) restored order in San Diego, working six sharp innings (6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 7 K) and keeping the ball in the park. … So much for LaTroy Hawkins’s(notes) tidy start – he made a mess in the eighth inning at Chicago (four runs) and picked up the loss. The Brewers went quietly in the ninth, as the electric Carlos Marmol(notes) struck out the side.

    ——–

    Photos courtesy US Presswire

  • Handicapping the Verizon Heritage

    Harbour Town, one of my favorite stops of the spring. Let’s handicap it from a fantasy perspective.

    A-List: Luke Donald finally returned to Harbour Town last year after a long layoff and finished second. When you consider the profile of Donald, a player who favors precision over power, that’s no surprise. He should be in the hunt this week. … Scott Verplank isn’t a bad play on a short week in the top group. He’s made ten straight cuts here and the track plays to his skill set. … I’m on board with the upside of Bill Haas, but you can’t use him here (four cuts and a T27). … Zach Johnson has cashed in 4-of-5 visits at the Verizon Heritage but there’s just one deep run in there, a T6 three years back. Johnson’s got a profile that works for target golf; he’s 14th in tee accuracy, 35th in GIR and 51st in putting average. … Jason Dufner has made 8-of-9 cuts this season but he’s yet to grab a six-figure check. Get some face time on a Sunday afternoon, then come back to me. … Picks: Donald, Johnson. 

    B-List: It’s surprising that K.J. Choi hasn’t made this a regular stop because this is the sort of track that fits his game (he came to Harbour Town in 2001, missed the cut, and hasn’t been back since). His comeback in 2010 is very real and you can tell this is a man at peace with his game – he didn’t bat an eyelash when paired with Tiger Woods for four straight weeks at Augusta. … It’s basically a home game for Lucas Glover and he’s got a solid enough track record at the Verizon Heritage (26, 7, cut, 12, 47, 16, cut). I’d feel a lot better about his chances if he weren’t sitting 119th in driving accuracy and 104th in putting average.

    Jim Furyk‘s got a strange hit-and-miss record at Harbour Town, working a fourth and two seconds around a pair of missed cuts in the last five years. His steady iron play and patient demeanor make him a perfect candidate for target golf. … Brian Gay steps in as the defending champ and he also ran T16 in 2007 and T9 in 2006. I’ve yet to spend a play on him, so this week looks like an automatic. … Aaron Baddeley won this tourney in 2006 and he’s been sharp since(21, 2, 10) but his current form makes him just about unplayable. He hasn’t cashed a check over 15K all year. … I hated Sergio Garcia‘s body language on the weekend at the Masters, and his last trip to Harbour Town came in 2001. None for me, thanks. … I guess you could use Charles Howell III if you felt in the mood (37, 12, cut, 19 in four trips). But I’m always a little nervous trusting him after the first quarter of the year. … Picks: Furyk, Gay, Choi, Glover.

    C-List: Matt Kuchar has made 8-of-10 cuts this year and banked a cool $1.6 million without a victory; you get a solid run from him just about every week. He’s got two Top-10 finishes at Harbour Town in the last four years and 2010 looks like a major breakout year for him. … Vaughn Taylor knows his way around Harbour Town, finishing fourth in 2007 and third in 2006 (and he was a solid T30 last year). The last time we saw Taylor he was in a playoff in Houston (losing to Anthony Kim); look for Taylor to keep the momentum rolling here. … Davis Love III is a guaranteed check at Harbour Town; he’s won the event five times (most recently in 2003) and he’s been solid in recent years (32, 3, 47, 36, 36, 21). But the C-Pool has guys who can win this week, and Love’s no longer a major threat just by showing up.

    If you want to go with a name grab on Paul Casey, I won’t try to stop you. He was a solid T11 in his Verizon Heritage debut last year, but is he completely healthy? … It’s a shame we can’t use Boo Weekley with any confidence this week, given that he won this event in 2007 and 2008 and he was 13th last year. But do you really want to roll with someone who’s 143rd on the money list? I just can’t do it. … Tim Clark has made 6-of-7 cuts here but his only real run at contention came in 2006 (T7). It seems like an assignment that would fit his game, but I’m sick of waiting for that first victory. … Picks: Kuchar, Taylor.

  • Closing Time: Will Venable and the feel-good Friars

    The San Diego offense was missing in action during the opening week (19 runs), but that was quickly forgotten in the home opener as the Padres pelted the Braves, 17-2. There are some under-the-radar Friars to be aware of (park to the side), so let’s have a quick look around.

    Will Venable(notes) collected three hits Monday (including a homer) and also stole a base, and keep in mind he was a monster in spring training (four homers, nine steals). The Princeton product might sit against some lefties and he’s just a career .260 hitter, but he’s got a reasonable shot to hit 12-15 homers and steal 15 or more bases – not bad for someone owned in just two percent of Yahoo! leagues. He’s a late bloomer at 27 and he doesn’t have all that much experience playing baseball, but this could be another Nate McLouth(notes) type of story (you know, back when we loved McLouth, circa 2008).

    Chase Headley(notes) took San Diego’s best swings in the opening week and he grabbed two more hits Monday, pushing his average up to .448. He’s a two-position grab (3B, OF) and a little bit of a post-hype sleeper; let’s not forget how highly regarded he was when he broke into The Show back in 2008. He’s got enough smarts to steal 10-15 bases a year, it’s just a matter of seeing if the power will develop. And he’s a far better hitter than his .269/.344/.405 line suggests, we haven’t seen anything close to his ceiling yet.

    Kyle Blanks(notes) is a fun guy to watch, for the power, for the No. 88 on his back, for the afro. It’s a shame he’s tied down to this giant home ballpark but Blanks has enough power to push 30-plus homers in any environment. He collected three hits, including his second homer, and five RBIs Monday. He’s already got 12 major-league round trippers on just 173 at-bats.

    Jimmy Rollins(notes) was a late scratch at Philly and according to Jim Salisbury (the best Phils beat writer around) it’s believed Rollins has a Grade 2 strain of his right calf muscle. This would typically be an injury that would lead to a DL trip; well see what an MRI uncovers Tuesday.

    The new order to the Rangers bullpen was a success in Cleveland: Frank Francisco(notes) worked a perfect ninth with the score tied at 2, and Neftali Feliz(notes) did the same in the tenth with a save in the balance. If you’re wondering about the radar gun, Francisco was working in the mid-90s while Feliz was in the high 90s (and occasionally in three digits). The Rangers can say all they want about Francisco being temporarily demoted out of the closing role but if Feliz is electric in the new gig, how can they take him out of it?

    The Julio Borbon(notes) mess continues at the plate (0-for-4, down to .040), though he did make a dynamite throw from center, cutting down Travis Hafner(notes) at the plate. The Rangers finally picked up some stolen bases Monday, with Josh Hamilton(notes), Vlad Guerrero and Joaquin Arias(notes) stealing one bag apiece. Elvis Andrus(notes) was on base four times (one hit, three walks) but he’s yet to attempt a steal.

    Make it two straight messy outings for Chris Perez(notes), with the latest coming in the top of the ninth in a tie game (routine work for a hometown closer). Perez couldn’t retire any of the three men he faced – a hit, a fielder’s choice and a walk – before the Indians went to other options. Tony Sipp(notes) retired Ryan Garko(notes), then Jamey Wright(notes) induced a double play from Michael Young(notes), ending the threat. Wright went on to lose the game in the tenth, giving up a two-run moonshot from Nelson Cruz(notes).

    Jensen Lewis(notes) might be worth a deep-league grab if you’re hedging against Perez; Lewis is off to a solid start this year (4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 5 K) and he was 13-for-14 as a closer down the stretch in 2008. Don’t be fooled by his 1-for-5 mark on saves last year, the blown save stat is very misleading for middle relievers and set-up men, working without a net and seldom allowed to get the end-of-game handshake even when they do their job. And also keep in mind that Kerry Wood(notes) (back) isn’t too far off; he had a bullpen session Monday and will do it again Thursday.

    It was no surprise to see Adam Wainwright(notes) cruise past the Astros (8 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K), and we all know Wandy Rodriguez(notes) isn’t the same guy on the road (4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 0 K). Razzball offers the perfect comment on the 2010 Houston club: The Astros would’ve been better off if they auto drafted. If you’re looking to stream against this spotty Astros offense, here are the next three pitchers (all widely available) taking on the assignment: Brad Penny(notes) Wednesday, Kyle Lohse(notes) Thursday, Tom Gorzelanny(notes) Friday.

    It was a tough day for AL East second basemen, with Brian Roberts(notes) (back) and Aaron Hill(notes) (hamstring) both landing on the 15-day DL. Not much comes our way with respect to fantasy reinforcements; Julio Lugo(notes) is a journeyman at best in Baltimore, while the Blue Jays will split the job between John McDonald(notes) (can’t hit) and Mike McCoy(notes) (some wheels, but unproven).

    The Blue Jays have offered a save chance in all seven of their games but in the home opener Monday, Jason Frasor(notes) couldn’t hold the fort. Frasor’s allowed the leadoff man to reach in all five of his appearances, a trend that’s going to give Cito Gaston an ulcer; Monday, the relievers was greeted by Mark Teahen’s opposite-field homer. Stay warm, Kevin Gregg(notes). Bobby Jenks(notes) was no treat when the White Sox handed him a one-run lead in the bottom of the tenth, but he worked around two walks and got his second save of the year.

    I guess we have to put Carl Pavano(notes) on the watch list; he’s got victories over the Red Sox and the Angels to boast of, with 10 strikeouts against just one walk. It’s too early to tell how Target Field is going to play (and I’m not going to draw any major conclusions from what we saw in Monday’s regular-season debut of the beautiful park), but the Minnesota pitchers at least can feel very confident in the new double-play combo of J.J. Hardy(notes) and Orlando Hudson(notes), and it’s always a bonus when you’re throwing to a once-a-generation backstop like Joe Mauer(notes). Jason Kubel(notes) (three hits, homer) and Mauer (3-for-5) provided half of Minnesota’s 12 hits, and the Twins took full advantage of a struggling Jon Lester(notes), who couldn’t locate his fastball for most of the afternoon.

    Ricky Nolasco(notes) (6 IP, 9 H, 5 R) and Johnny Cueto(notes) (5 IP, 9 H, 4 R) were both mediocre in their Monday matchup, but I watched every pitch and there’s nothing to be alarmed about with these guys. Nolasco was bitten by the gopher ball (three homers) and Cueto was working behind in the count most of the night, but in both cases you can pin some of the blame on home plate umpire C.B. Bucknor, who had a ridiculous strike zone from the opening pitch. If you won’t take my word for it on Bucknor, consider that he was voted the worst umpire in the majors according to Sports Illustrated polls in 2003 and in 2006, and Curt Schilling(notes) doesn’t think much of him, either.

    It’s easy for scribes to bash Scott Podsednik(notes); he’s got a jelly arm and he doesn’t have the power profile a competitive team would want in a corner outfielder. But in the make-believe context of fantasy baseball, there’s a place for guys like Pods; he’s batting near the top of the Royals lineup, off to a fast start (12-for-27), running whenever he can (five bags). The small-market screen has Podsednik available in a lot of leagues, and while you’re in Kansas City thinking about a pickup, kick the tires on the Brandon Funston-approved Jose Guillen(notes) (third homer Monday).

    It was a tale of two halves for Brandon Inge(notes) in 2009; useful in the first half (.268/.360/.515, 21 homers) and worthless in the second (.186/.260/.281, six homers). We know Inge doesn’t have the skill set to hit for a plus average in our game, but I’m willing to consider him as a deep-league corner grab, at least on the slow Mondays and Thursdays where there’s a partial MLB slate. Knee problems had him hobbling for the stretch run last year, but he looks healthy now. He gave us two hits, two RBIs and one outstanding catch Monday, pushing his average up to .345.

    Speed Round: Chipper Jones(notes) (oblique) was a surprise addition to the Atlanta lineup Monday, going 0-for-3. … The Phillies removed Jayson Werth(notes) (hip) from Monday’s home opener but it was just a precautionary move. … Scott Rolen(notes) hit a couple of homers in Florida and while his range at third isn’t what it used to be, he’s still got excellent hands and footwork at the hot corner. … I’m not ready to start taking Andruw Jones(notes) seriously again, but he did knock out two homers at Toronto. … Chris Coghlan(notes) is down to .152 after an 0-for-6, but don’t overreact here. He had some tough at-bats and put the ball in play each time; this is the perfect moment to get him at a discount. … Might as well run with the Alex Gonzalez story while you can. He went 1-for-4 with a walk and a stolen base Monday, and he clubbed four home runs last week. He’s also batting second in the Toronto lineup. … Justin Duchscherer(notes) was serving up cans of corn in Seattle, working 7.1 scoreless frames and getting 11 fly-ball outs along the way (against eight grounders and four strikeouts). He’ll get a home turn against Baltimore Saturday. … Barry Zito(notes) was nothing special against the Pirates (6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, just 1 K) but he picked up an easy victory as his mates pushed nine runs across. The perennially-underrated Bengie Molina(notes) (4-2-4-4, homer) had the best night of the hitters. … Hurry back, Ryan Zimmerman(notes) (hamstring); it’s no fun watching Cristian Guzman(notes) bat third in Washington. … Matt Thornton(notes) struck out four of the six men he faced; he’s as good a set-up man as there is in the American League. … Derrek Lee(notes) jammed his thumb late in the Cubs home-opening victory; X-rays came back negative. If this turns out to be anything substantial, Xavier Nady(notes) re-enters our fantasy world.

  • Closing Time: Mike Gonzalez, closer on the brink

    When you sign a two-year, $12 million deal to be a closer, there’s an automatic leash that comes with the package. But if Mike Gonzalez(notes) can’t find his form soon, winter smiles and promises aren’t going to mean a thing.

    Gonzalez turned in his third messy outing in five days Friday night, allowing two runs in the ninth as the Blue Jays rallied to beat the Orioles. Gonzalez couldn’t find the strike zone (just nine strikes over 19 pitches), his velocity was down (this was a problem all spring), and his command was spotty. The O’s don’t want to make a hasty, knee-jerk change to their bullpen order, but one or two more stomach-punch losses in April could force Dave Trembley’s hand. (If you want to see the critical hit, a double by Travis Snider(notes), your video is here.)

    "Obviously, Gonzalez isn’t off to the start that he wants or that we expected," Trembley said after the loss. "You live with it. It doesn’t sit with you real good, but that’s all I can tell you."

    Jim Johnson(notes) worked a perfect eighth inning in front of Gonzalez Friday, with two strikeouts. He was mediocre as the stopper after the O’s traded George Sherrill(notes) last summer, but anytime you’re hedging against a closer on the bring, you look at the eighth-inning man first. Johnson doesn’t come close to the strikeout potential Gonzalez has at his best, but Johnson gives you far better control.

    How you choose to play the Gonzalez-Johnson situation depends on the scope of your league. In the shallowest of groups, you can just wait for things to play out, then make a move if and when a switch is announced. In medium groups you have to consider being proactive with a possible move now, and in deeper leagues, Johnson surely is long gone, either from March’s draft or from an earlier pickup earlier this week. One size never fits all in this game. We’ll toss this around in the comments, get through this together.

     Home runs were all but illegal for the Mets during home games last year but the New Yorkers got off to a nice push Friday, cranking four out of the yard in a victory over the Nationals. Jeff Francoeur(notes) and Rod Barajas(notes) both connected twice, and David Wright(notes) would have joined the parade had they been playing in a smaller park (his double in the seventh just missed clearing the left-field wall). Mike Pelfrey(notes) was solid if unspectacular in his first turn of the year (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 4 BB, 4 K) and a trio of relievers backed him up with three scoreless innings. If the Mets could just get Mike Jacobs(notes) out of the lineup somehow, things would be groovy.

     Adam Dunn faced an exaggerated shift in New York, as usual, which makes you wonder why he doesn’t lay down a bunt now and again. Drop anything down the third base line and Dunn could walk to first base, and after a few of these cheap hits teams might go back to defending him in a more conventional manner. Ian Desmond(notes) had a two-run triple to produce the Washington runs; I really hope the Nats aren’t going to jerk him in and out of the lineup all year. Let your young players develop, already.

     Jorge De La Rosa is already owned in three-quarters of the Yahoo universe, but this is a guy who deserves to be 100 percent bankrolled. He finally got control of his awesome arsenal over the final two-thirds of 2009, he looked great in spring training, and the Padres didn’t have a prayer against him Friday (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K). Have a look at some nasty pitching here.

     The modern manager’s handbook probably cost the Red Sox a shot at a win Friday in Kansas City; Jonathan Papelbon(notes) sat in the bullpen waiting for the "ninth inning save chance" while Hideki Okajima(notes) and Daniel Bard(notes) lost the game in the eighth inning against the heart of the Royals lineup. I’m not picking on Terry Francona, he’s merely doing what just about everyone does these days: manage by the save rule. If I can a professional ballclub, my ace reliever would pitch when the situation was most critical, stats be damned.

     Magglio Ordonez earned a controversial contract vesting with his hot finish in 2009 and he’s kept things rolling in the first week of the new year (9-for-18, two doubles, homer). Batting third in an American League lineup, slotted between Johnny Damon(notes) and Miguel Cabrera(notes), sure, this could work out.

     Trevor Hoffman only gave up two homers for all of 2009 but a long ball from the unheralded Nick Stavinoah cost Hoffman a ballgame Friday. Ryan Franklin(notes) had an uneventful save conversion on the other side, getting three batted-ball outs over four batters.

     Javier Vazquez back in the AL East, what could possibly go wrong? The Rays ate his lunch Friday at the Trop (5.2 IP, 8 R) while post-hype sleeper David Price(notes) was effective on the other side (7.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K). Vazquez will look west for a fix, as his next two starts will probably come against the Angels and Athletics.

     Maybe it’s best to hold off on the Jason Heyward(notes) anointing oil for a bit. He struck out four times in six plate appearances at San Francisco, and he’s now 3-for-17 on the year with eight strikeouts. Heyward might want to do something against Todd Wellemeyer(notes) Saturday, as Tim Lincecum(notes) awaits for Sunday.

     We had a good joke at Oakland’s expense earlier in the week, but the pesky Athletics offense has been heard from of late, piling up 22 runs in three games. But the most interesting potential pickup that emerged from their Friday victory in Anaheim is lefty starter Gio Gonzalez(notes) (6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K); if he gets the ball over the plate and trusts his stuff, good things can happen.

     Kelly Johnson’s big day out Thursday was a blast, but he was back in the No. 8 slot in the lineup Friday. Chris Young (grand slam) and Adam LaRoche(notes) (3-2-2-3) got the best of a lopsided win over the Pirates.

    Speed Round: The Phillies are good and the Astros aren’t, no new spin on that one. Imagine how lethal this Philly offense will be when the weather heats up in Citizens Bank Park this summer. … The Rangers aren’t fun to pitch to in Arlington (Nelson Cruz(notes) looked primed for a monster year), though Julio Borbon(notes) has yet to join the party. … Jason Frasor(notes) needed a day off so Kevin Gregg(notes) got the save in Baltimore (1-2-3, two strikeouts). … Francisco Liriano’s(notes) first start wasn’t a gem by any means (6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 3 K) but it’s something to grow on. He’ll probably face Boston next week. … Jon Rauch(notes) worked around two hits and grabbed his third save in five days. … San Diego’s Chris Young has a sore shoulder and will miss a start. … Ian Kinsler(notes) (ankle) has April 21 set as his return date. … Brian Roberts(notes) left Friday’s game after stealing a base in the first inning and straining his abdomen. Keep in mind he had a back problem all spring. … Edgar Renteria(notes) bailed out the Giants with a ninth-inning homer off Billy Wagner(notes); the shortstop is on an 11-for-16 tear. … Drew Stubbs(notes) put Cincinnati ahead with an eighth-inning grand slam off Esmailin Caridad(notes), and Francisco Cordero(notes) barely held on in the ninth (some spotty infield play didn’t help).

  • Closing Time: C.J. Wilson would like your attention

    So far, so good with the C.J. Wilson(notes) reinvention tour. When you can pile up strikeouts and keep the ball on the ground, good things tend to happen.

    Wilson’s tidy training camp (3.24 ERA over 25 IP, 8 BB, 22 K) made him a spring sleeper and he furthered that case Thursday, dazzling the Blue Jays over seven shutout innings (5 H, 2 BB, 9 K, impressive video here). He worked both sides of the plate, changed speeds effectively, and had excellent command of his three pitches. Wilson also pounded the strike zone from the opening toss, throwing 62 of 98 pitches for strikes. It’s hard to say how much he’ll have left in the tank when the second half comes around and his arm is asked to weather a workload it hasn’t dealt with, but we’ll worry about that later. He’s worth a spot in medium and deeper groups, and I’d certainly use him at Cleveland next week.

    Neftali Feliz(notes) was utterly electric working the eighth inning (three strikeouts on 13 pitches) but it all fell apart in the ninth as the Blue Jays went to town on Frank Francisco’s(notes) fastball. Francisco certainly belongs on any closer watch list; he’s struggled with physical problems his entire career and he’s never spent a full season in the ninth inning chair.

     Most of the industry wants to mock Ryan Franklin(notes) until he loses his closing gig in St. Louis, but answer me this – who’s the main threat here? Set-up man Kyle McClellan(notes) is a ham-and-egger all the way (he’s also been scored on in both of his appearances this year) and Jason Motte(notes) doesn’t look ready for a step up in class, either. Motte was all over the place in his Monday appearance and Thursday it was a high fastball that got him in trouble – it turned into a walkoff homer for Cincinnati’s Jonny Gomes, breaking a 1-1 tie.

    It’s not that I don’t see the flaws with Franklin – his 2009 ERA wasn’t supported by the peripherals and he was considered a journeyman before last year’s 30-something breakthrough – but just keep one thing in mind: the Cardinals trust him more than the general public does, and they’ve already made an investment here.

     So another home run for Vernon Wells(notes), make it four in three games. Having a pair of healthy wrists – something Wells didn’t have in 2009 – goes a long way in the power department. You get the idea that Wells was a modest discount at the table last month because of his gigantic real-life contract, not that that line of reasoning makes any sense. The Jays are stuck paying the freight, you just have to worry about dispensing a mid-round draft choice. This looks like a happy ending.

     If you want to ride on the Dontrelle Willis(notes) train after his snappy turn in Kansas City (6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K), be my guest. I’m not giving him a pass for all those spring-training walks (12 in 22.1 IP), and let’s not forget that he completely fell apart after a brief revival early in 2009. Successful pitching is directly tied to consistent mechanics, repeating the same physical motion on every pitch – and that’s where Willis can’t be trusted.

     The Indians got a tidy night from their bullpen en route to an extra-inning victory at Chicago. Rafael Perez(notes) got two of four outs via the strikeout, Jensen Lewis(notes) retired five of the six men he faced, and Chris Perez(notes) brought easy gas en route to a smooth 1-2-3 inning. If Perez can continue to throw the ball this well, the Indians will have an interesting decision to make when Kerry Wood(notes) returns at some point in May or June.

     The Dodgers finally got a win, sending their JV lineup out for the finale in Pittsburgh. Manny Ramirez(notes) got a routine day off (Joe Torre wants to rest Manny for these getaway types of games), Andre Ethier(notes) is resting a sore ankle, and Casey Blake(notes) and Russell Martin(notes) also got the day off. Chad Billingsley(notes) ran up the pitches quickly, but you’ll take his finishing line (5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 7 K).

     The Cubs finally got into the win column with a working-man’s shutout at Atlanta, working around 12 baserunners. Randy Wells(notes) kept the ball on the ground and it bailed him out with three double plays in six innings. Carlos Marmol(notes) steered the last four outs and was the usual carnival ride; at times his slider was nowhere near the strike zone, but when he put it where he wanted it, he was nasty (ask Jason Heyward(notes), who struck out on three ridiculous pitches).

    The two Chicago runs came on solo homers off Tommy Hanson(notes). Marlon Byrd(notes) connected in the fourth and then circled the bases like he was being chased. Two innings earlier it was Tyler Colvin(notes) doing the honors; he picked up the start in left field while Alfonso Soriano(notes) stewed on the bench.

    Brett Anderson(notes) was who we thought he was (6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 4 K), not that anyone should throw a parade when a pitcher shuts down the Seattle offense. Oakland knows it doesn’t have much power on offense so it’s going to run liberally; Eric Patterson(notes) and Cliff Pennington(notes) picked up bases here. Daric Barton(notes) might have some worth as a post-hype sleeper on the corner; he’s off to a .333 start with five RBIs and four walks through four games.

    Brian Matusz(notes) showed some nasty stuff in Tampa, not that he always knew where the ball was going (5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 7 K). His victory held up as Mike Gonzalez(notes) skated by in the ninth (one bloop hit, two walks, two whiffs, no runs). Jeff Niemann(notes) had an abbreviated start on the other side, forced out of the game after a line drive hit his shoulder in the second inning. The Rays called the move preliminary and Niemann is listed as day-to-day.

     So much for Ian Desmond’s(notes) momentum – after a big game Wednesday night, he was forced to watch Thursday as Cristian Guzman(notes) (2-for-4) picked up a start. The Nats picked up their first win of the year, sparked by Willie Harris’s(notes) homer and steal. Matt Capps(notes) allowed a leadoff double to Chase Utley(notes) in the ninth but was able to slam the door (well, close it gently) after that.

    Speed Round: So much for the Jason Frasor(notes) concerns. He grabbed two saves over the last two games, striking out four of eight batters. … The Mets are eager to get Jose Reyes back Saturday and Andy Behrens is here to tell you all about it. … Chipper Jones(notes) left Thursday’s game with a sore oblique and will probably miss a couple of games. Omar Infante(notes) probably will start in the meantime. … Let’s not overreact to Leo Nunez’s(notes) blown save in New York Wednesday; he was asked to clean up someone else’s mess in the bottom of the eighth, and the tying run came in courtesy of a phantom balk call (even the out-of-town announcers concur). Nunez had a much smoother time of it Thursday, putting the Mets down in order on just 10 pitches. … The Rays are running a "Caught Looking" eyeglasses promotion, which may or may not have been inspired by Pat Burrell(notes).Jarrod Saltalamacchia(notes), hurt again. Kudos if you had April 8 in the pool. Ron Washington isn’t happy about it, either. … Magglio Ordonez(notes) swung a live bat in the Kansas City series (7-for-14, homer, double), and you know all about Miguel Cabrera(notes) (eight hits, two homers). … Chris Getz(notes) picked up his second steal Thursday (both off throwing ace Gerald Laird(notes)) and is a nice sleeper if you need some cheap speed. … Delmon Young(notes) didn’t start Thursday but hit a stat-padding homer in the ninth off Rappin’ Fernando Rodney(notes).Ted Lilly’s(notes) rehab start is getting delayed two days because of a sore lower back but the Cubs say it’s not a setback. … A sore hamstring kept Aaron Hill(notes) out on Thursday, he’s day-to-day. … Thursday was a tough day for home cooking, as the visiting clubs too 8-of-11 games. … If anyone’s taking a poll, I can’t stand the new camera angle for home games in Arlington. … Brad Penny(notes) and Bronson Arroyo(notes) had a nifty pitcher’s duel in Cincinnati but neither factored in the decision. Check Arroyo before next week’s play; he took a line drive off the right calf and had soreness after the game.

  • Handicapping the Masters – Tiger’s back, the Goose is loose

    I’m not going to waste any time selling you on the story – we’ve got the first major of the year, a timeless course, the return of Tiger Woods, and the glorious rules of Masters television (limited commercial interruption). Clear off your schedule for the next four days.

    A-List: Okay, Tiger’s only won once in his last seven trips down Magnolia Lane, but let’s not act like he’s been kicking the ball all over the joint (T6, 2, T2, T3, 1, T22, T15). Just about anyone else in this field would run over their grandmother for that track record, and if he can shake off the rust and somehow get into the chase on the weekend, he’s got a huge mental edge on the rest of the Tiger-fearing field. And for once we don’t have to worry about prematurely burning up all the Tiger starts – everyone’s got 10 in the bank, obviously. I’m not going to roll with him on Thursday, but I want him ready in the bullpen, accessible when needed (I’m almost definitely going to use him Friday).

    Ernie Els was the can’t-miss kid at Augusta for several years – consider his run from 2000 to 2004, where he never finished worse than sixth but never secured the green jacket. He’s fallen on hard Magnolia times since then (47, 27, MC, MC, MC), but recent form means more to me and those two wins in Florida ultimately earn Els the check mark.

    If you prefer to make a selection based on performance here, Phil Mickelson is your play, but I don’t like a thing about his game right now. Anthony Kim? I’ve never felt his skill set was an ideal fit for the Augusta requirements (plus he’s only been here one other time), and while he did win with his B Game last week in Houston, he’s also got a bum thumb that’s headed for surgery right after this week. That steers me to other options.

    B-List: Lots of choices in this pool, good thing we get four of them. Settle in.

    Retief Goosen has been close to a win here before (2002, 2007), and this year he’s my pick to get the job done. He’s a consistent driver no matter the course setup, he’s got the stomach for pressure golf, and he’s a dynamite putter on fast greens (his putting at the 2004 U.S. Open at Shinnecock might have been the best I’ve ever seen). If you lived through a lightning bolt as a child, you’d be cool under pressure too.

    Jim Furyk almost feels like a forced play; he’s also superb with the flat stick under pressure, and his earlier win this season was a monstrous step forward for his confidence. Furyk has only missed one Masters cut in his career, and he’s been in the Top 30 a whopping 11 times in 13 starts. Next step – a late pairing on Sunday afternoon.

    I’ll go against type a little bit and use a bench spot on Dustin Johnson, no matter that he’s only making his second start at Augusta (T30 last year). He’s got a fantastic mix of power and distance control, he’s better on et greens than many realize (11th in putting average), and he’s currently standing first in par breakers and birdie conversion percentage.

    Padraig Harrington and Lee Westwood were the two names I considered for the final spot, with Harrington getting the call for two reasons: he’s contended more often here, and I trust his putter more in a tight spot. Heck, just a few years ago it was pretty much a concession that Westwood would never be a factor in the majors because of his problems rolling the ball. He’s come a long way since then, but this isn’t the ideal place for his breakthrough.

    Alvaro Quiros? Love the player, hate the local inexperience; just one turn here, a missed cut last season (78-75).

    C-List: I know it sounds crazy to leave Paul Casey and Charl Schwartzel off the dance card this week, but there’s a legitimate reason for both. In the case of Casey, we’re looking at injuries – a bad shoulder and rib kept him out of Houston last week and he openly admits he’s not 100 percent. Schwartzel’s got the mind and the game to be a factor here for many years, but he’s making his Augusta National debut in 2010 and this is the type of course where local knowledge goes a long way.

    Ian Poulter takes up one of my C positions; he’s got the nerve of a burglar on the greens and that’s the type of thing that wins here. He doesn’t have a sterling record at the Masters (20 25, 13, 33, 31), but I’m impressed that he’s never missed a cut, and you can argue that he’s grown up considerably as a player over the last few seasons. And the heck with the defending curse, let’s go with Angel Cabrera in the other seat; he’s collected four Top 10s over his last nine visits and he’s got the perfect attitude for Augusta. What’s more unflappable than a duck?

    Matt Kuchar? Hasn’t been here since 2002. Tim Clark? This pool is too deep to gamble on a non-event winner.

    I’ve said my piece and explained my picks. Now it’s your turn in the comments, and feel free to revisit this post all weekend, we’ll break down the first major together.

  • Closing Time: Field of streams – when good things happen to ordinary pitchers

    The high-priced lefty was working in Houston, up against the Berkman-free Astros. The journeyman righty was toiling in Oakland, facing perhaps the weakest lineup in the majors today. The pedestrian lefty was at home against Seattle, cushioned by a mammoth park and facing another underwhelming offense. Good work if you can get it.

    Barry Zito(notes) wasn’t given much fantasy hope entering the season, no matter that he came around nicely in the second half of 2009. Does a six-inning dusting (3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K) of the punchless Astros change your mind? Ian Snell(notes) had an up-and-down spring – plenty of strikeouts, but a messy ERA. Does a tidy six innings in Oakland (3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K) put him in your circle of trust? Dallas Braden(notes) entered Tuesday night with a respectable career ERA but nothing else notable to speak of. Will you shift into pickup mode after a 10-strikeout effort against the Mariners?

    If I had to pick up one of these three guys, Zito would get the nod. We’re talking about a former Cy Young winner, no matter if it happened back in the dark ages (once upon a time, Eric Chavez(notes) and Bobby Crosby(notes) got us excited on draft day). Zito gave us a 2.83 ERA and 7.7 K/9 after the break last year, and if nothing else you can selectively spot him around the National League, waiting for the home starts in a pitcher’s yard or the cushy spots on the road. Zito doesn’t throw hard enough to wake a napping baby these days, but if he keeps snapping off his curveball like he did Tuesday, I’m not concerned about the radar gun. Assuming the Giants slot him for a home date with Pittsburgh next Monday, I’m on board.

    Snell’s solid effort was all about picking on the Athletics, something Andy Behrens was begging you to do earlier in the day. Oakland’s basically got a roster of No. 1, No. 6 and No. 9 hitters – there isn’t a single stick that makes sense in the middle of a batting order. Snell was knocked around for most of camp (7.13 ERA, six homers) but he also had 18 strikeouts against three walks. I’m not going to make him a streaming priority by any means, but I’ll at least put him on the list when the matchup looks reasonable. I won’t go near him at Texas this weekend.

    Braden’s start might have been the most surprising of the three; while he had a solid 3.89 ERA over 22 starts last year, he wasn’t throwing the ball by anyone (5.33 K/9) and he never went past seven strikeouts in any start until Tuesday night. I suppose you could consider him on the weekend at Anaheim, depending on where you stand in your head-to-head match. In roto groups, I’d prefer to wait for a different spot.

    Chris Young is a more intriguing roto option than any of the three names listed above and he’s gone in all of my leagues, albeit his current ownership level is right around where Zito trades at. Young cruised through the Diamondbacks Tuesday (6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K) but let’s keep his flaws well in mind: he’s never gone past 179.1 innings in any season; he’s a fly-ball pitcher who will allow his share of homers, especially outside of Petco; he unwilling or unable to hold runners on base, so speed-laden clubs will get extra bases any time they want them. If Young gets the call at Colorado this weekend, hands off; if the Friars hold him out until Monday’s home game with Atlanta, you have a decision to make.

    In spring training, Mike Gonzalez’s(notes) problem was velocity; Tuesday night, he struggled with location. Either way, the lefty’s first outing for his new Baltimore club was a kick in the stomach – a blown save in the season opener at Tampa.

    The Orioles probably should have had a bigger cushion when the bottom of the ninth rolled around – Rafael Soriano(notes) was all over the place in the top of the inning, leaving the bases loaded – but when you’re a closer, you’re supposed to get those three outs, even if it’s just a one-run margin. Gonzalez was able to get his fastball in the 93 mph range Tuesday after a month in the 80s, but he couldn’t get the ball where he wanted. Sean Rodriguez(notes) roped a single to start the rally, Kelly Shoppach(notes) crushed a double off a belt-high heater and eventually Carl Crawford(notes) ended things with a two-run single, laced off a letter-high fastball.

    Gonzalez’s job isn’t in any danger, of course – his contract (two years, $12 million) guarantees a reasonable leash and at least his velocity returned in the opener – but there was nothing impressive about this debut, either. Clip and save. Jim Johnson(notes) doesn’t have an electric repertoire and he was spotty as a tempt closer late last year, but we should note that he’s the eighth-inning guy in Baltimore and he worked a tidy eighth inning at Tampa (1-2-3, with one strikeout).

     The Yankees tweaked their lineup up against Boston ace Jon Lester(notes); Curtis Granderson(notes) was dropped to the last spot in the order, and Marcus Thames(notes) got the call in left field while Brett Gardner(notes) hit the bench. Gardner eventually replaced Thames and got two at-bats against the Boston bullpen. "It’s not necessarily that we envision [Gardner] as a platoon guy," Joe Girardi told The Journal News. "There could be a situation where you give Nick (Johnson) a day off and you DH (Thames)." Thames has a career .516 slugging percentage against lefties, his one bankable skill.

    Handshakes: Another smooth save for Brian Wilson(notes) (perfect inning, one strikeout), with three holds in front of him. … Mariano Rivera(notes) retired three of four men to lock up New York’s first victory. … Trevor Hoffman(notes) was knocked around a bit (2 H, 1 R) but it’s hard to blow a three-run lead. … Heath Bell(notes) got the job done with a double-play ball and a strikeout. Mike Adams(notes) got the four earlier outs, dancing around three baserunners. … Jon Rauch(notes) rolled to an easy save in Amaheim (1-2-3, two strikeouts), with Matt Guerrier(notes) working a perfect eighth inning.

    Speed Round: Jose Reyes played nine innings in an extended spring training game (2-for-5) and might be able to play with the Mets this weekend. … The aggressive Padres stole three bases at Arizona (Tony Gwynn(notes), Chase Headley(notes), Everth Cabrera(notes)), while Adrian Gonzalez(notes) and Will Venable(notes) clubbed home runs. … Matt Wieters(notes) hit one of three Baltimore homers off James Shields(notes) in Tampa (the Roto Gods sigh), while Evan Longoria(notes) blasted a titanic shot that hasn’t landed yet (the Roto Gods weep). … Ken Macha brought the infield in during the first inning with Colorado, a silly move considering the Brewers were up against ordinary lefty Greg Smith(notes) on the other side. This isn’t 1968, Kenny. … A hitless day for Carlos Gomez(notes), but at least he tried to bunch for a hit (retired by a snappy Todd Helton(notes) play). A better approach, even if the result doesn’t show it. … Nick Johnson(notes) doesn’t have a hit yet for the Yankees but he’s already drawn four walks. The man is an OBP machine. … David Ortiz(notes) is already getting a little testy after an 0-for-7 start. Given how he struggles against lefties and on the road, he’s not someone I want any part of in 2010. … Houston’s bullpen got nine straight outs against San Francisco (courtesy of Jeff Fulchino(notes), Brandon Lyon(notes) and Matt Lindstrom(notes)) but it didn’t matter as the Astros offense was in bagel mode. … Ian Stewart(notes) knocked his second homer in two days, this one an opposite-field clout off left-hander Randy Wolf(notes), and he added a double and triple. The Rockies would be foolish to keep Stewart in the No. 7 slot all year.

  • Closing Time: The Carlos Gomez conundrum

    I’m the last hand on deck as we finish up the opening day wrap; if you want to celebrate Jason Heyward’s(notes) fantastic debut, go here; if you want to marvel at Mark Buehrle’s(notes) Globetrotter act, click here. Otherwise, let’s take a look at a glorious first full day of action and see what’s moving and shaking on the roto landscape.

    The optimist looks at Carlos Gomez(notes) and wants to see another Michael Bourn(notes) make-good story. The realist concedes that we’re probably looking at this year’s Tuffy Rhodes Award Winner.

    Gomez was one of the surprise stars of opening day, collecting four hits (including a homer) and a stolen base in Monday’s loss to Colorado. And the snappy debut came on the heels of an exciting spring (.301 average, 11 steals in 11 attempts). He’s going to get a shot at the No. 2 position in the Milwaukee lineup, and it looks like Gomez will have the green light on the bases anytime he wants it. All sounds great, doesn’t it?

    Ah, but there’s an ugly flip side to consider here. Gomez has long been known as a player with no patience or pitch recognition skills at the dish; he sees the ball, he hacks at the ball. His putrid on-base percentage (.292) forced him out of Minnesota, and Gomez didn’t show any improved patience during March (just two walks). Bourn’s reinvention last year came through a series of important changes – better pitch selection, more balls on the ground; conversely, Gomez’s big Monday was all about swinging from the heels at the first pitch available (he took a cut on 8-of-13 pitches, and look at his pose above – you can almost hear him saying "yeah, I’m a slugger"). You could make the argument that the home run Gomez hit was the worst possible result for him long term; it’s going to reinforce bad habits.

    This doesn’t mean you can’t make a short-team pickup with Gomez; for all of his offensive flaws, he is capable of stealing 40 or more bases over a full season. And you never know, perhaps a fast start could turn him into a trading chip, depending on the quality and sophistication of your league. Just keep in mind that Monday’s results didn’t show a change in offensive philosophy, and this is a player that’s desperately needed one for a while.

    Monday was a fairly clean day from the closers but we didn’t get away completely unscathed; Jason Frasor(notes) has the first ninth-inning meltdown of the year, falling apart in Arlington (0.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R). Scott Downs(notes) breezed through the eighth inning on just 11 pitches (eight strikes) and probably is Toronto’s best reliever pitcher on raw skills, but Kevin Gregg(notes) is also around and might be more attractive as a potential closer because he’s right handed (never mind that he’s not as good as the other two options here). It’s probably 50-50 at best that any of these three guys manages to get to 20 saves when it’s all said and done.

    Ryan Franklin(notes) came out for an inning of work in Cincinnati; he was in line for a save chance until Yadier Molina(notes) counterfeited things with his grand slam in the top of the ninth. Franklin had just about nothing on his cutter and the Reds hit him pretty sharply (3 H, 2 R); Brandon Phillips(notes) laced a two-run double to center that probably dented the ball.

    If you’re hedging against Franklin (and really, who isn’t?), please note that Jason Motte(notes) struggled in the seventh (one run, two outs, three baserunners) while Kyle McClellan(notes) was ordinary in the eighth (1 H, 1 BB, 2 K, an unearned run). The fact that McClellan got the eighth-inning assignment in the first place is worth noting; the Cardinals aren’t afraid to close with a non-name brand (like Franklin last year) and Motte’s still a work-in-progress in a lot of ways (heck, he’s only been pitching since 2006).

    I’ve never really been a Casey Kotchman(notes) fan, but if he’s going to bad third most of the year behind Ichiro Suzuki(notes) and Chone Figgins(notes), maybe something interesting will happen. The table setters got on base four times in Oakland (one hit, three walks, plus three steals) and Kotchman made the most of it, collecting two hits and four RBIs. Location, location, location.

    Garrett Jones(notes) homered on his first two at-bats and they both made a statement about his game; make a mistake over the plate and he’s capable of splashing into the river, and even if you work away from him, he’s got enough power to find the seats. He’ll probably see a lot more off-speed stuff as the season goes along, but he’s no longer a secret to anyone, teams had a full offseason to consider how to get this guy out. His average will probably fall 20-30 points from last year, but 25-30 homers looks like a sure thing to me.

    Handshakes: Franklin Morales(notes) allowed a couple of absolute rockets in the ninth inning at Milwaukee but survived (thanks, Troy Tulowitzki(notes)).Brian Fuentes(notes) was surprisingly tidy putting down the Twins in order. Fernando Rodney(notes) got through the eighth as only he can; working a scoreless inning despite throwing just 3-of-10 pitches for strikes. … Piece of cake for David Aardsma(notes), getting the A’s in order and recording two strikeouts. Andrew Bailey(notes) worked on the other side and needed 16 pitches to record one out, albeit a Kevin Kourmanoff error extended the inning. … Frank Francisco(notes) struck out two of the four Blue Jays he faced, then picked up a victory when Frasor imploded in the bottom of the ninth. … The perennially-underrated Brian Wison closed up with two outs in Houston, made necessary after Brandon Medders(notes) ran into trouble.

    Speed Round: Shaun Marcum(notes) was the early story of the day, taking a no-hitter into the seventh at Texas before the Rangers caught up to him (Nelson Cruz(notes) eventually squared the game with a three-run moonshot). Marcum’s a nice story off Tommy John surgery, but I’m not betting on AL East pitchers for mixed-league play unless they’re All-Star quality. If I were doing a pitcher Shuffle Up and Deal right this second, I wouldn’t go past $5 on Marcum. … It’s a little surprising Felix Hernandez(notes) couldn’t completely dispatch of that pedestrian Athletics lineup (everyone starting for Oakland should be batting first, sixth or ninth; the middle of the order is embarrassingly weak). … Ubaldo Jimenez(notes) might have pitched better than his line suggests (6 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K) and it’s interesting to note that the Brewers could’t stop praising his nasty stuff after the game. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tabs Jimenez to win the Cy Young this year. … Carlos Gonzalez(notes) was nabbed on his stolen-base attempt but that was just about the only thing that went wrong for him during a 4-for-5 opener with two runs scored. Now let’s hope Jim Tracy gives Cargo a chance to play against all kinds of pitching, as he deserves. … The Mets have plenty to feel good about with their opener (David Wright(notes) homered, Johan Santana(notes) was sharp), but it’s hard to feel good about a lineup that uses Mike Jacobs(notes) in the cleanup spot (0-for-4, 2 Ks).

    Nothing about Philly’s romp in Washington comes as a surprise; here’s a look at the crooked numbers. Ryan Howard(notes) tends to struggle with hard-throwing lefties, but the soft-tossing John Lannan(notes) didn’t fool him in the fourth inning. … Drew Stubbs(notes) didn’t start for the Reds but he made an impact later in the game (2-1-2-1). … Vernon Wells(notes) broke a lot of hearts in 2009, in part because he was playing with a bad wrist. He sure looked healthy in Texas (three hits, including a homer). … Tim Lincecum(notes) mowed down the Astros and Dan Haren(notes) toyed with the Padres, to the surprise of no one. Good work if you can get it. … Carlos Zambrano(notes) didn’t have a thing in Atlanta (1.1 IP, 8 ER) but he made good on his promise to be more in control of his emotions; he did not attack the Gatorade bucket in the dugout. Lou Piniella seemed to take Chicago’s ass-kicking in stride as well. … I’ve run out of words to describe the awesomeness of Albert Pujols(notes), so you can take up that chore in the comments. Welcome back, baseball.

  • Closing Time: Fenway Park shows its teeth

    So it’s opening night of the 2010 fantasy hardball season, Sox and Yanks, Fenway Park. Quick, do you know where your starting pitchers are?

    Offense was once again the story as the Red Sox outlasted the Yankees at The Hub, 9-7. Josh Beckett(notes) was knocked out of the game early (4.2 IP, 8 H, 5 ER), CC Sabathia(notes) didn’t last much longer (5.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER) and ultimately the game was decided by the bullpens.

    It amazes me that so many fantasy owners try to swim against the current and get by with AL East pitchers. The American League in general is a softball league when it comes to offense, and the rules switch to slow-pitch for the AL East, which probably boasts three of the five best teams in baseball (Yankees, Red Sox, Rays), not to mention an offensive paradise in Fenway and a home-run jetstream in Yankee Stadium. Bunts and productive outs live in the NL, but they don’t play over here. If you want to be down with the crooked number, this is the division for you.

    Not that you can’t be successful in this environment, of course, but you’re making it harder on yourself. Consider that Roy Halladay(notes) had 15 starts against the Big 3 last year (Yanks, Sox, Rays), while Felix Hernandez(notes) had four such turns, Zack Greinke(notes) made just three and Justin Verlander(notes) got by with five. (When Doc sees Washington’s opening-day lineup Monday, he might break down and cry.)

    Perhaps Jon Lester(notes) has the stuff to get through the division and make a Cy Young push, but it’s time to stop expecting that from Beckett. The Texas flamethrower has a 4.53 career ERA at Fenway and against the Yankees it jumps to 5.51. Messy outings like this aren’t surprises for Beckett, it’s what we should expect.

    As for the offense, I’ll let you peruse the overstuffed box score on your own and sort through the goodies. Only three of the 18 starters finished the night without a run scored or RBI (Nick Johnson(notes), Jacoby Ellsbury(notes), David Ortiz(notes)); other than that, it was a fun evening for the offensive guys. I’m still against the idea of a stand-alone Sunday opener, but this is one of the better ones I can remember.

    Opening day proper hits tomorrow at 1 p.m. eastern and we want you to share it with us. Andy Behrens and I will be live-blogging with the Big League Stew chaps all day; please stop by, grab a hotdog and a cold drink (sorry, not provided), and let’s talk some baseball.

    Speed Round: Nate McLouth(notes) (hamstring) has avoided the disabled list for now, though he’ll be slotted eighth for Monday’s opener. Meanwhile, Melky Cabrera(notes) gets the leadoff assignment. … Dexter Fowler(notes) will sit out opening day, with Seth Smith(notes) getting the call against Yovani Gallardo(notes). Although Fowler is a switch hitter, he struggled against righties last year (.240/.357/.372). … Jose Reyes (thyroid) has been put on the DL retroactive to March 26; he’s eligible to come off Saturday. … Jack Cust has been booted off the Oakland roster yet again; Eric Chavez(notes) opens the year as the team’s DH. … Brad Lidge (elbow) had a positive 25-pitch session Sunday and might be getting close to a rehab assignment. … John Bowker had a big spring with the Giants and will get the opening-day nod in right field, with Nate Schierholtz(notes) moving to the bench . . . Mike Aviles(notes) isn’t expected to start for the Toyals Monday, despite his torrid camp. Look for Chris Getz(notes) at second base and Willie Bloomquist(notes) at third. … Three spring-training stars to keep an eye on as possible sleepers: Will Venable(notes) (.345 average, four homers, nine steals), Sammy Gervacio(notes) (13 IP, 2 ER, 16 K, 3 BB) and Dan Runzler(notes) (10.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 BB, 17 K).

  • Tip Drill: What’s in my wallet

    I’m in a bunch of leagues every year, probably too many. Invariably I’ll wind up with some repeat players on a bunch of teams, sometimes by design, sometimes by coincidence. Today, we’ll discuss these names and what I expect.

    I’ve arranged the list of players from most significant to least significant; keep in mind that some of the less-exciting names at the bottom of the list were purchased because of their nominal price, not because I expect wonderful things.

    Sometimes my common link purchases will be home runs (Nate McLouth(notes) 2008, Cedric Benson 2009), sometimes they’ll crash and burn (Felix Hernandez(notes) 2007, Skip Hicks 1999). We’ll figure that out over the next six months.

    Justin Upton(notes): I don’t think it’s possible to draft him too early, so long as you’re somewhere in the middle-to-late part of the first round. He’s capable of filling every category, he’s still on the escalator, the Arizona backdrop is a bonus, etc.

    Adam Wainwright(notes): I’m not going to sweat the innings jump given his age and build. This is a very safe place to park your money.

    Jayson Werth(notes): The batting average might be a mild drag but the other four categories look safe and bankable to me. And owning Phillies has been a blast over the past few years, especially when the weather heats up and they start pelting pitchers at Citizens Bank Park.

    Dustin Pedroia(notes): Perhaps the most underrated star player in the American League. He went after Ian Kinsler(notes) all month (I know, I botched that rank too) and given their levels of durability and recent production, that’s not right.

    Jered Weaver(notes): This is a market-driven pick, I guess I like him more than the general consensus. If you’re going to live with AL pitchers for your mixed-league exercise, at least get them from the western part of the map.

    Johnny Damon(notes): An Ibanez All-Star all the way. Sure, he’s going to regress merely by leaving New York and Yankee Stadium, we all know that. But that’s all priced into the ADP. Identifying a likely regression on its own is not the full story.

    Manny Ramirez(notes): Another Ibanez type, and while I don’t think too much about contract year motivation, perhaps it’s worth considering in the World of Manny.

    Ian Desmond(notes): I love his offensive game, just hoping he doesn’t bobble his way out f the job with his messy fielding. And I’m also a little concerned that Jim Riggleman will play Cristian Guzman(notes) far more than he should.

    Alex Rios(notes): Let’s not hold the massive contract against him, it’s not like you and I have to pay it. His average season over the last three years brings you 19 homers, 24 steals.

    Bengie Molina(notes): Drafted once, picked up as a FA scrap once. Someone’s gotta catch, otherwise you’re looking at a lot of passed balls.

    Michael Cuddyer(notes): A lot of people seem to be treating Target Field like it’s Yellowstone National Park. The Metrodome wasn’t that good for hitters, kids. Target might help the pitchers but that doesn’t make it a park to avoid for offense. Cuddyer’s dual-position grab (1B, OF) helps the cause. This is also an example where a career year (or at least a year relatively equal to his 2006) did not result in an inflated price the following season.

    Sammy Gervacio(notes): My favorite non-closer on the board, watch him pitch, go get him. Look at that torque. Look at that slider. Look at the spotty options in front of him. Look at those ridiculous numbers from spring training. Then again, there’s another story here . . .

    Matt Lindstrom(notes): Yeah, I got him a bunch of times, too. The price was next-to-nothing. He’s always had a power arm. Maybe Brad Arnsberg was able to tweak his slider in such a way that Lindstrom can hold the ninth inning. Closing out baseball games isn’t all that hard if you’re only asked to get three outs with no one on base, often with a multiple-run lead. On the down side, I think Houston is going to be horrendous this year, but even bad teams can support a closer for fantasy purposes.

    Brian Wilson(notes): A second-level closer who consistently went at a third-level price. Maybe one year I’ll get burned by not investing major bucks into the closer market, but it hasn’t happened recently.

    Kelly Johnson(notes): I’d feel a lot better if he had a prime batting slot. But this is an obvious setup for a comeback year. The price was a lot more fun three weeks ago.

    Ryan Franklin(notes): I know, I know, another easy regression call. But even if his ERA climbs a run or two, it’s not the end of the world so long as La Russa and Duncan keep him for the ninth. Jason Motte(notes) isn’t Mariano Rivera(notes) from the mid-90s, he’s still learning to pitch, too.

    Adam Kennedy(notes): Multi-position grab, and you know the non-star Nats, they never cost anything.

    Troy Glaus(notes): If he stays healthy, 25-30 homers. If he gets hurt, you get next to nothing. But the price makes him a free spin.

    Will Venable(notes): Athletic kid, basketball background, still learning to play this game but there’s a 20-20 upside if it all clicks. He’s still figuring out lefties and Petco will sap the power, but most of the opposing arms are right-handed and the Padres play a road schedule like everyone else. Bottom line, my flavor of the week, "we’ll see" pickup. Big spring, if that matters to you (.345/.406/.724, four homers, nine steals).

    Aubrey Huff(notes): Maybe he’s close to done, but anyone holding down a cleanup spot for a MLB club will get some stats. That said, sometimes I feel sorry for Giants fans, this front office has some crazy ideas.

    Jorge Cantu(notes): He looks like a Bond villain, doesn’t he? Another multi-position grab, and a better hitter than given credit for. In all but one league, I think he was a late value.

    There are plenty of names I wish were on this list. I have no shares in Ricky Nolasco(notes), which bothers me greatly. I only got Chase Utley(notes) once. No Alex Rodriguez(notes), just one Doc Halladay to this point, no Jon Lester(notes). And so it goes.

  • 5U: The Brandon Webb guessing game; welcome back, Mike Aviles

    Five stories, many links, here’s your midday fantasy update for Thursday. 

    There’s plenty of Brandon Webb(notes) whispering and innuendo out there, some of it cautiously optimistic, some of it more worrisome, most of it conflicting. Spin the spinner, throw your dart, pick your date, place your return wagers.

    If you’d like to hear a positive tune regarding B-Webb’s mysterious shoulder, Ken Rosenthal has been told that a return in May is "highly likely." Fox Sports Arizona has a different spin, mentioning that Webb was told by a team doctor that recovery from the August 2009 surgery could take a year. If you want a more vague take on the Webb wing, head over to MLB.com, tell me what you get out of these 257 words. I wish I had a clear answer for you, but I don’t think one exists. One thing we can all agree on; he’s not going to be pitching for the Snakes in April.

     We had a blast with the Mike Aviles(notes) story back in 2008 and it looks like happy days are here again for the frozen-rope machine. He’s having a monstrous spring with the bat (.478/.528/.739, 15 runs, five triples), but the team isn’t sure yet what Aviles is ready for defensively, given that he’s coming off Tommy John surgery.

    In a perfect world the Royals would give Aviles the third-base assignment for now, then perhaps slide him over to short when Alex Gordon(notes) is ready to come back. Clip and save, we might be looking at a nifty multiple-position sleeper here.

     Ryan Garko has been plucked off waivers by the Rangers, and with that a few things clear up. First and foremost we can put a fork in those Mike Lowell(notes)-to-Texas rumors, that’s obviously not going to happen now. The Garko move also takes a chunk of potential value away from Chris Davis(notes); Garko’s been a lefty-masher for most of his career (.313/.392/.495) while southpaws have toyed with Davis (.226/.271/.428).

     Matt Joyce (elbow) is headed for the disabled list in Tampa, which probably clears the deck nicely for spring phenomenon Sean Rodriguez(notes) (.467, six homers). As for Hank Blalock’s(notes) status with the Rays, no one is saying anything definitive just yet. "He’s going to play [Wednesday), he’s going to be with us [Thursday]," Joe Maddon said. "And we’ll continue to work on that." If Blalock doesn’t stick with the Rays – he’s got a way out of his deal if he’s not on the roster by the end of Friday – then Reid Brignac(notes) will break camp with the team.

     Although Brett Gardner(notes) has been tabbed the starting left fielder for the Yankees, Joe Girardi hasn’t ruled out the possibility of a platoon between Gardner and Marcus Thames(notes). Gardner’s career line against lefties is a modest .241/.310/.627, but that’s over a small sample (79 at-bats) and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. He actually gained 73 OPS points against southpaws last year, but again, it’s a tiny sample.

    We’ve got a much larger book on Thames and it’s pretty clear what he offers: reasonable utility against lefties (.256/.329/.516) but an ongoing struggle against righties (.234/.291/.474). Neither player has hit a lick this spring; Gardner’s OBP and slugging are both under .300, while Thames has a .146 average and 20 strikeouts over 48 at-bats. For the ultimate big-market team, this is a rather underwhelming situation to have brewing at a corner-outfield spot.

  • Welcome to the Boomtown: The Shell Houston Open

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    Between some traveling and a daily draft/auction schedule this week, I’m a little out of my basic routine the last few days. But I wanted to at least share with you how I played the Shell Houston Open for fantasy purposes, and feel free to come back here as the tournament goes along and we’ll talk some golf.

    First things first as we attack the field – it’s time to get Fred Couples back in there. It’s one thing to go on the Champions Tour and compete or even win, but he’s been flat-out dominant there (three wins plus a second) and that will serve him well as he heads back to the main circuit.

    Houston’s like a second hometown for Boom Boom – he attended the University of Houston, rooming with Jim Nantz and Blaine McCallister – and his victory at this event in 2003 was one of the tour’s most emotional moments over the past decade. Here’s what Couples has done since this event shifted to the Redstone Golf Club in 2003: win, T49, T4, T3. He’s a forced play, and a fun one, this week in his adopted city.

    Other B-List Picks: I understand if you’re a little gun shy on Geoff Ogilvy these days; he’s been somewhat of an underachiever since the early victory at the SBS Championship. But he’s got a sterling rep at Redstone (7, 10, 62, 2, 6) and I don’t see how we can look past that now. … Kevin Sutherland is one of those solid if forgettable pros that always seems to take care of your fantasy club when you tap him on the shoulder. He’s made 12-of-14 cuts at Houston over the years, including 6-of-7 over the Redstone track, and he’s done well of late at this stop (T19, T8). Consistency and a steady iron game go a long way. … Lee Westwood had two ordinary starts at the Shell until last year, when he finished a respectable T11. I’m comfortable using him at any venue and some different rules apply for name players who compete part-time on the PGA Tour; let’s take advantage of their presence when we can. … Hunter Mahan should be a popular pick in this group; he’s already bagged a 2010 victory and he’s assembled a strong Redstone resume over the last four seasons (T6, MC, T5, T11). But Mahan’s lone contending tournament this year was the victory in Phoenix; I’d like to see more intensity from him on a weekly basis, gunning for Top 20s and Top 10s when a trophy is out of play.

    A-List: Ernie Els is an obvious selection off his amazing Florida success, but I’d prefer to use him in a fallback role, and maybe skip him for the week if things work out well with the primary pick. Keep in mind Ernie’s recent victory was a Monday finish with some extra stress down the stretch; combine that with the extra media and public demands that come with winning and it seems like a good time to put him in the No. 2 slot. … Anthony Kim figured out Redstone pretty quickly in 2007 (T5); since then he’s given us a MC and a T26 here. His iron play runs hot and cold but the swagger will be present either way; if Kim can get off to a fast start Thursday, I might lock him into the driver’s seat and forget him for the rest of the event. Justify the faith, AK. … I don’t see the point of playing Phil Mickelson right now; he’s been underwhelming during the Tiger Void, and he’s never seemed to fully buy into the Houston experience (MC, 23, 28, 30, MC over five stops, the first three at Redstone). When you’re ready to come back to the inner circle, Lefty, give us a sign.

    C-List: Paul Casey won here last season and he’s been lights out for most of 2010; forget trying to find a reason away from him in this list, you’re not going to find it. Unfortunately he’s going to be a shared check – anyone with a pulse will have Casey too – but you can’t swim against this tide. … The other name grab in this spot is Charl Schwartzel, but his last Houston visit came in 2006, a forgettable T81 check, and I’ve already burned a few of his starts. Instead let’s ride with underrated post-hype star Matt Kuchar, who’s quietly picked up $1.4 million and sits No. 7 on the money list. The highly-touted Georgia Tech product was a perennial disappointment through his 20s, but games and careers mature in strange ways. He’s one of the more bankable C-List options now, standing sixth in putting average and second in all-around rank.

    Photo via Getty Images

  • Scenes from an expert auction

    The annual Tout Wars auctions took place this past weekend; for the fifth year I’m in the 13-team National League group. I’ve had some decent runs in this exercise (second twice), some respectable finishes (fifth once), and one utter disaster (dead last in 2009). Make of that what you will.

    If you’ve only played in mixed leagues for your rotisserie career, what’s below probably won’t be of any value to you. An only-league is about depth, about finding value with fourth outfielders and reserve infielders, about knowing every player on every major league roster. Most mixed-leaguers in a non-keeper pool wouldn’t waste their time on tier-two prospects in the minors, or unsigned free agents, or injured players expected to be back late in the season. In our exercise, those players do get taken, and sometimes there’s a wrestling match for them. Keep that in mind as you peruse my club, and for full context, be sure to check out all 13 league rosters.

    Here’s Team Pianow, grouped by position cluster: catchers, corners, middles, outfielders, starting pitchers, relief pitchers. In the comments, I’ll discuss some of the other prices and a few of the players that got away.

    $12 Bengie Molina(notes)

    $11 Chris Iannetta(notes)

    My basic strategy in an only-league is to get a full team of participation, collect at-bats and worry about everything else later. The biggest challenge in this concept comes at catcher, given that there are only 16 starters in the league in theory, some of them aren’t very good, and we have 13 owners needing to field two backstops each. I also prefer not to chase any catcher that will lead me into the teens; if I can field two starters for about 20 bucks, I’m happy. These two guys went slightly over that, no big deal. Iannetta’s upside is blunted by the presence of Miguel Olivo(notes), but that shouldn’t keep Iannetta from hitting double-digit homers, and there’s always the chance he settles into a solitary starting gig at some point over the summer.

    $34 Ryan Howard(notes)

    $11 Mark DeRosa(notes)  

    $13 Aubrey Huff(notes)

    I try not to target players before the action but I had a strong hunch Howard would end up on my team, for a few reasons: I regretted not taking him in the Yahoo Friends and Family League; I think his batting average risk is grossly overblown; and it’s always nice to get a bank of power early. Howard came up early in the auction and I got him at market; no discount or overbid here. DeRosa and Huff have a lot more utility in a mono league where the mere possession of a job makes you valuable. I don’t need them to produce like supermen to justify this cost; if they can approach 75 runs, 20 homers, 80 RBIs, I’m content. DeRosa also qualifies at two positions (third, outfield), something that really helps in this format.

    $9 Adam Kennedy(notes)

    $10 Ian Desmond(notes)

    $9 Skip Schumaker(notes)  

    All it takes is two owners with the same hunch and a price gets a little silly; that’s what happened with Desmond here. Cory Schwartz brought Desmond up early in the proceedings and we wrestled for a while; eventually he conceded him to me at $10. I’m a little concerned that Jim Riggleman will waste 300-400 at-bats on Cristian Guzman(notes), but Desmond’s had a big spring, he has the job to open the year, and there’s a shot that he could be ready for double-digit homers and steals right out of the box. I can’t even claim to be the biggest Desmond fan out there; check out what Bill James is expecting from Desmond this summer.

    To pull off the participation theme, you need to accept a lot of unexciting starters around the $10 level; that’s where Kennedy and Schumaker fit in. Several of my opponents have one or two non-starters in the middle; I’m aiming to have no dead spots anywhere. Kennedy also has third-base eligibility if I need to do some shifting later.

    $21 Manny Ramirez(notes)

    $18 Brad Hawpe(notes)

    $16 *Troy Glaus(notes)  

    $14 Jeff Francoeur(notes)

    $4 Willie Harris(notes)

    $4 Ben Francisco(notes)

    You know it’s a carnival ride when you buy a ticket to the Ramirez show, but there’s still plenty of ability here, and while the contract-year idea can be overblown in many cases, the lure of the next contract might be a motivator for Manny. The Hawpe purchase was punctuated with me stating the obvious: "I hate Brad Hawpe." But look at his last four years, there’s a nice consistency there; I can put .280-75-22-80 in the bank right now, with the possibility of more. I would never target Hawpe in a mixed league; you’re looking for upside in a mixer, and you’ve got the net of a rich free agent pool. The only-leagues are about depth, floor, and the knowledge that the free-agent pool will be of modest help during the year.

    Glaus has an asterisk because he’s my utility player. Sure, the price looks a little silly; we were near the end of the auction and the inflation process had set in. Glaus is an easy target especially at this price, but I feel better when I see the other 12 utility fits around the league:  Ryan Spilborghs, Cristian Guzman, Bobby Crosby(notes), Jim Edmonds(notes), Pedro Alvarez(notes), Wily Taveras, John Bowker(notes) (big spring, for what it’s worth), Jonny Gomes(notes), Jody Gerut(notes), Gerardo Parra(notes) (Rico Suave), Mike Morse(notes), Julio Lugo(notes).

    Francoeur? Well, the Mets will play him. Francisco I like as a fourth outfielder with power and speed, and he’s behind some injury risks (Raul Ibanez(notes), Jayson Werth(notes)). Harris will always be a favorite of mine for his run during 2008; that’s my problem, not yours. But the Nats will have to use him more than a strong team would.

    This offense might not look impressive to the eye, but I accomplished most of what I wanted. Independent projections have me topping the league in homers and RBIs and competitive in runs, that’s the idea. Inadvertently I went into punt mode on steals and the average will have to be managed, but still, it’s a good offense for an NL-only group.

    $24 Adam Wainwright(notes)

    $9 Johnny Cueto(notes)

    $8 Bronson Arroyo(notes)

    $5 Barry Zito(notes)

    $2 Zach Duke(notes)

    $2 Jason Marquis(notes)

    $2 Tom Gorzelanny(notes)

    I’ll go to the mat for Wainwright anywhere, though it broke my heart to see a bunch of name pitchers go in the late teens (Ricky Nolasco(notes), I’m looking at you). There’s no way to see this coming sometimes, but it was a very sickening feeling to have to sit out bids like that.

    The rest of my staff was built on a budget; I was outchased on some guys I wanted (Joe Blanton(notes) went to $11, Paul Maholm(notes) up to $5, even Brad Penny(notes) I was pushed out on). Cueto has a tangible upside and Arroyo can earn his price – the key with him is not to live and die with his every start. Before you mock Zito (and you will), go check his second half again. The park doesn’t hurt. If I can get one useful and trustable year out of Duke, Marquis and Gorzelanny, I’ll take it.

    $13 Ryan Franklin(notes)

    $9 Matt Lindstrom(notes)

    It doesn’t matter that most of the free world hates Franklin; I just need Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan to like him. A Franklin regression is an easy call, but if he holds the job and has the ERA under 4.00, I’ll take it.

    Lindstrom’s meltdown left a scar with most of us in 2009, but he’s tweaked his slider grip this spring and looks like a solid bet to get the closing gig out of the gate. We can’t ignore Brandon Lyon(notes) given how much the Astros are paying him, but he doesn’t worry me as much as springtime surprise Sammy Gervacio(notes).

    I didn’t get any middle relievers or closers-in-waiting; a host of them went in the auction and most of them, to my eye, were overpriced. This also means I really need at least one of my closers to hold up all season; if I can even coax 1.5 closers out of the two guys, above, I’m in profit territory. But it’s not like I’m betting on Rivera and Papelbon.

    So there’s my club; the other clubs are here. Who looks good? Who looks spotty? How would you attack an NL-only auction?

    Photo via US Presswire

  • Shuffle Up and Deal: Roaming the Outfield

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    Just outfielders today, gamers. If you want the Utleys and the Longorias, click here. If you want the Lincecums and Halladays, head over here. If you want the Flying Molina Brothers, you’ll have to wait.

    Don’t take the prices too literally, as always – the important thing is to note how the players relate to each other, and seeing the clusters of talent. In a mixed-league auction, add a few bucks to the stars here (you’ll make it up when the lower-class talent goes for less, and it will).

    $38 Ryan Braun
    $33 Matt Kemp(notes)
    $33 Justin Upton(notes)
    $30 Matt Holliday(notes)
    $28 Carl Crawford(notes)
    $28 Grady Sizemore(notes)
    $28 Jayson Werth(notes)
    $27 Ichiro Suzuki(notes)

    Been in a few drafts so far and I’ve yet to land Braun, that’s just how it’s fallen. I might have to reach for him somewhere, because a summer being locked out of this guy isn’t going to be much fun. … Werth’s still not being treated as a bankable outfield stud, but he should be. … There’s nothing wrong with Ichiro and I subscribe to the idea that batting average is underrated and doesn’t cost what it should at the table, and yet, he seldom shows up on my teams. Make of that what you will.

    $26 Adam Lind(notes)
    $26 Curtis Granderson(notes)
    $25 Nelson Cruz(notes)
    $25 Andre Ethier(notes)
    $25 Ben Zobrist(notes)
    $24 Jacoby Ellsbury(notes)
    $24 Josh Hamilton(notes)
    $23 Shin-Soo Choo(notes)
    $22 Nick Markakis(notes)
    $22 Jason Bay(notes)
    $21 Shane Victorino(notes)
    $21 Bobby Abreu(notes)
    $21 Hunter Pence(notes)

    Abreu was criminally underranked at this time of year last season and he’s still a value this time around. Welcome to the Ibanez All-Stars. … Zobrist gets a kickback for all those positions he carries. … The closer we get to the season, the less interested I get in Jason Bay. History of knee problems, big park, spotty support group, The Curse of the Citi Field cat, etc.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-710746499-1269630641.jpg?ymxqp4CDgDWuHRJM$20 Carlos Lee(notes)
    $20 B.J. Upton(notes)
    $20 Manny Ramirez(notes)
    $20 Torii Hunter(notes)
    $20 Carlos Gonzalez(notes)
    $19 Adam Dunn(notes)
    $19 Carlos Quentin(notes)
    $19 Andrew McCutchen(notes)
    $18 Adam Jones(notes)
    $18 Jay Bruce(notes)
    $17 Jason Kubel(notes)
    $17 Denard Span(notes)
    $16 Raul Ibanez(notes)
    $16 Johnny Damon(notes)
    $16 Alex Rios(notes)
    $16 Michael Cuddyer(notes)

    More Ibanez All-Stars coming at you here – Lee, Ramirez, Hunter, Damon, and of course our patron saint, Ibanez. Boring but reliable vets make for tremendous value picks. … Sometimes I think players with heavy contracts get more fantasy critique than they deserve; look, it’s not like we’re paying them every two weeks. Rios has his obvious flaws, but he belongs in this tier. … It’s going to be difficult to make a profit on Cargo this year but I’ve yet to meet any respectable fantasy player that didn’t like him.

    $15 Alfonso Soriano(notes)
    $15 Nate McLouth(notes)
    $15 Julio Borbon(notes)
    $15 Nyjer Morgan(notes)
    $14 Brad Hawpe(notes)
    $14 Michael Bourn(notes)
    $14 Nolan Reimold(notes)
    $14 Ryan Ludwick(notes)
    $13 Drew Stubbs(notes)
    $13 Chris Coghlan(notes)
    $13 Rajai Davis(notes)
    $13 Franklin Gutierrez(notes)
    $13 Josh Willingham(notes)
    $12 Corey Hart(notes)
    $12 Garrett Jones(notes)
    $12 Jason Heyward(notes)
    $12 Carlos Beltran(notes)
    $12 Austin Jackson(notes)

    If I wind up with Soriano anywhere, something’s gone terribly wrong. The bags are very unlikely to come back, given his age and physical history, and at best you’re getting an average-neutral guy (and I wouldn’t bet on him getting to that level). You can have him. … McLouth has been an absolute mess this spring, perhaps an adjustment period to his new contacts. It would not shock me to see him in a platoon at some point in the second half, and I might move him down a little more between now and the start of the year. … Davis has the skills to steal as many bases as he wants, but Oakland’s got a glut in the outfield, too.

    http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__25/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-446684892-1269630654.jpg?ym.qp4CDLUhbBC6.$11 Juan Pierre(notes)
    $11 Vernon Wells(notes)
    $11 Juan Rivera(notes)
    $11 Conor Jackson(notes)
    $10 Mark DeRosa(notes)
    $10 Dexter Fowler(notes)
    $10 Kyle Blanks(notes)
    $9 Travis Snider(notes)
    $8 Cameron Maybin(notes)
    $8 Colby Rasmus(notes)
    $8 Lastings Milledge(notes)
    $8 Chase Headley(notes)

    Pierre has just one significant thing to offer us, and if he loses another half-step, he might not even have that one thing. But if Ozzie Guillen was fine with Scott Podsednik(notes), he’ll certainly be fine with Pierre. … Blanks has no business being in the outfield, though he’s an intriguing offensive player. The second Adrian Gonzalez(notes) is out of town, Blanks sets up camp at first base. … Milledge is going to have a useful season one of these years, probably after all of us write him off. … DeRosa was a curious signing by the Giants, but fantasy owners love a Swiss Army Knife.

    $7 Delmon Young(notes)
    $7 Jeff Francoeur(notes)
    $6 Marlon Byrd(notes)
    $6 Cody Ross(notes)
    $5 Magglio Ordonez(notes)
    $5 J.D. Drew(notes)
    $5 Milton Bradley(notes)
    $5 Chris Young
    $4 Nick Swisher(notes)
    $4 Carlos Gomez(notes)
    $4 Brett Gardner(notes)
    $3 Elijah Dukes(notes)
    $3 Mike Cameron(notes)
    $3 Matt LaPorta(notes)
    $3 Nate Schierholtz(notes)

    If Gomez could learn the strike zone, we could start dreaming about a 50-60 steal season, basically the Michael Bourn story, 2010. But everyone knows there’s no reason to throw Gomez a strike when he’ll swing at a ball, and his approach keeps him tied to the bottom of the order. The Brewers might be justified to hit the pitcher eighth and Gomez ninth; it would open up more steal opportunities that way. … Killing Me Softly, the J.D. Drew Story. Look for three useful months, one slumping month, and two nicked-up months. … If some club can get through to Dukes and help him grow up, he’s a $15-20 player someday, easy. If you’re in a keeper league with deep benches, he’s a perfect stash-and-hope guy.

    $2 Mark Teahen(notes)
    $2 Carlos Guillen(notes)
    $2 Melky Cabrera(notes)
    $2 Seth Smith(notes)
    $2 David DeJesus(notes)
    $2 Michael Taylor(notes)
    $2 Daniel Murphy(notes)
    $2 Coco Crisp(notes)
    $2 Will Venable(notes)
    $2 Rick Ankiel(notes)
    $2 Jose Bautista(notes)
    $2 Luke Scott(notes)
    $2 Scott Podsednik
    $1 Jermaine Dye(notes)
    $1 Desmond Jennings(notes)
    $1 Michael Brantley(notes)
    $1 Ryan Church(notes)
    $1 Matt Joyce(notes) 
    $1 John Bowker(notes)
    $1 Kosuke Fukudome(notes)
    $1 Scott Hairston(notes)
    $1 Tony Gwynn(notes)
    $1 Aaron Rowand(notes)
    $1 Ben Francisco(notes) 
    $1 Jeremy Hermida(notes)
    $0 Gary Matthews
    $0 Chris Dickerson(notes)

    Now it’s your turn. You know the rules. Disagreement is fine, just keep it respectful and as always, support your arguments. And if a particular rank looks wrong to you, suggest how to fix it, move some players around.

    Photos via Getty Images

  • Handicapping the Arnold Palmer Invitational

    We need eight good men for Arnie’s event this week; normally this is as much the Tiger Woods Invitational as anything else, but as we all know, Eldrick’s not here. Let’s get right to it.

    A-List: The first thing I did this week was scratch Steve Stricker off my sheet. He’s skipped this event since the middle of the 2000s and it’s no surprise, coming off four missed cuts in a row. Bay Hill is clearly not his friend.

    So who to use? I’m going back to Ernie Els, with a recent win in his sack, some confidence, and plenty of back class at Bay Hill. He finished a respectable 18th at this event last year, he’s made the cut in nine of his last ten visits, and if you look back far enough (1998), you’ll find a trophy grab.

    Zack Johnson gets my second slot, I like his last six over this track: 3, 54, 42, 43, 8, 6. I know it’s dangerous leaving Phil Mickelson on the bench again, but he doesn’t play here every season and I’d like to know he’s in form before I dial him up.

    B-List: I didn’t play the chalk in the top group but I’m going to here. Obvious names coming at you in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1.

    Start with Sean O’Hair, who ran third at the API in 2008 and second last year. Pretend this is the SATs, see if you can figure out the pattern. Camilo Villegas doesn’t have any form here (44, 61, 59), which means he should start off on your bench for Thursday. But it’s hard to put him on the sidelines, isn’t it? And obviously we’ve seen him play well at other Florida events; beware of the Florida Gator.

    Jim Furyk had a respectable run going at Bay Hill (31, 20, 23, 8, 47, 36) before missing the cut last year. Off a win, I’m of the mindset that we keep him on the course, and in our lineups, and look out for him in the majors (Pebble especially). Nick Watney has a stat profile to die for – other than sand play, you won’t find any major area where he’s lacking through three months of play. He came in fourth at Bay Hill last year, and T21 two years back.

    If none of those names work for you, K.J. Choi isn’t a bad fallback. He’s made six straight cuts this year – quickly erasing the nightmare of 2009 – and although his history isn’t astounding over this course, he does have three Top-35 checks over his last five visits, including a T8 back in 2005. If you got him in a straight-draft league back in January, congrats; you’re set to make a monstrous profit.

    C-List: Charl Schwartzel is making his debut at Bay Hill, but the way he’s striping it in 2010 (two wins overseas, then last week’s near-miss), I’m not going to fret about course familiarity. Stick with talent, momentum, and confidence. If you prefer to start out with Brandt Snedeker, I won’t argue with you; the steady pro from Tennessee has three solid checks at Arnie’s place (17, 14, 22).

    So that’s that. Get your picks in, then meet back at the 19th hole for a surprisingly-tasty drink.

  • Pick-six: Late-season hockey grabs for the title run

    It’s getting to be winning time in the fantasy hockey season and I want that imaginary trophy on your mantle. Let’s look at some skaters worth picking up in deep, medium and shallow leagues.

    Deep: Henrik Zetterberg(notes) has been on a tear since the Olympic break (16 points in 11 games), and while you obviously can’t pick him up, you can make a move on his two current linemates. Valtteri Filppula(notes) has a 4-4-8 run going over his last three starts, and Todd Bertuzzi(notes) is coming along for the line as well (five points, 10 shots, plus dual-wing eligibility). Don’t worry about Danny Cleary(notes) getting in the way of this trio; he returned to action Wednesday and immediately fell to the third line.

    Medium:  We liked Andrei Kostitsyn(notes) as a pickup back in December and he justified the faith nicely before a knee injury took him out of commission. He’s back in play now and off a two-goal game Wednesday at Buffalo. There’s a lot to like here; first-round pedigree, regular power-play time, enough of a mean streak to pick up some penalty minutes.

    Michael Del Zotto(notes) seemed to hit a wall after a quick getaway (12 October points), but he’s back in good standing on the Rangers power play, collecting two man-advantage points Wednesday and a goal (even strength) on the weekend). He’s also been a lot more assertive shooting the puck of late after a stretch of games where he seemed to lose his confidence. He’s currently available in over two-thirds of Y! leagues; time to fix that number.

    Shallow: If Peter Mueller(notes) and Alex Steen(notes) are still floating around your waiver wire, shame on you. These are strong plays who should be owned in any self-respecting group. Mueller’s career has woken up nicely since the deal to Colorado; he’s got a 5-10-15 line over 11 games, reminding us why he was tabbed as the No. 8 overall selection in the 2006 draft. Steen didn’t figure in the scoring at Detroit Wednesday despite five shots, but he’s posted a 9-10-19 line since February, another post-hype sleeper makes good. Get these guys in there.

  • Shuffle Up and Deal: Raking the Infield

    You’re going to draft a bunch of infielders this year, so here are some prices to get you started. We’ll price the outfielders at the end of the week.

    Don’t get too hung up on the actual dollar amounts; the key is noting how the players relate to each other. Your intelligent, respectful disagreement is most welcome, but support your angles; if something looks wrong, suggest what ranking tweak would make it right, and why.

    Game on.

    (Note: These prices are based on what I would pay in an NL-only or AL-only auction. If you want to apply them to a mixed league, add a significant amount of dollars to the stars, and bump the upper-middle-class as well; meanwhile, a lot of solid options might be pushed down to the $1-5 dollar range. Either way, this is an exercise in how the players relate to one another in value; entering any auction, your prices should serve as a rough guide, nothing more.)

    $41 Albert Pujols(notes)
    $40 Alex Rodriguez(notes)
    $39 Hanley Ramirez(notes)
    $37 Chase Utley(notes)
    $33 Evan Longoria(notes)
    $32 Mark Teixeira(notes)
    $32 Prince Fielder(notes)
    $32 Miguel Cabrera(notes)
    $32 Ryan Howard(notes)
    $31 David Wright(notes)
    $31 Troy Tulowitzki(notes)

    Comments: No smear campaign against Hanley Ramirez but A-Rod’s got such a safe floor, in the hitter’s league and surrounded by so many elite run producers. And it’s no great secret that the Marlins aren’t encouraging Ramirez to run wild on the bases. … There’s no need to fight it with the second-tier at first base – we’re talking about the same value of player. If you can be the owner that empties that tier, congratulations; you’ve got some timing working for you.  

    $30 Dustin Pedroia(notes)
    $30 Jimmy Rollins(notes)
    $30 Ian Kinsler(notes)
    $30 Ryan Zimmerman(notes)
    $28 Brandon Phillips(notes)
    $28 Derek Jeter(notes)
    $27 Kevin Youkilis(notes)
    $27 Joey Votto(notes)
    $27 Robinson Cano(notes)
    $25 Ben Zobrist(notes)
    $25 Jose Reyes
    $25 Pablo Sandoval(notes)

    Comments: There’s no right answer with Jose Reyes. I don’t want to take him, but I don’t want my rival to take him, either. It’s a shame we can’t pass a rule that mandates the weakest owner in every league has to take Reyes in say the third round; I could live with that. … Pedroia won the American League MVP two years ago (rightly or wrongly), and now he’s back to being one of the most underrated players around. He’s a five-category man and he plays a position that’s not that easy to fill, at least on the top side of things. He’s been a value all spring. … Cano has the perfect environment for his game, and I’m not going to dock him for his see-the-ball, hit-the-ball approach; it worked for Nomar and Vlad back in the day, and if it results in a discount at the table from the modern statheads, all the better. (Mike Salfino made this point, far more elegantly than I am here, a few weeks ago on the radio.)

    $24 Aaron Hill(notes)
    $24 Adrian Gonzalez(notes)
    $24 Aramis Ramirez(notes)
    $24 Mark Reynolds(notes)
    $24 Justin Morneau(notes)
    $22 Brian Roberts(notes)
    $21 Billy Butler(notes)
    $21 Carlos Pena(notes)
    $21 Derrek Lee(notes)
    $21 Victor Martinez(notes)
    $20 Chone Figgins(notes)
    $20 Kendry Morales(notes)
    $19 Adam Dunn(notes)
    $19 Alexei Ramirez(notes)
    $18 Gordon Beckham(notes)
    $18 Jason Bartlett(notes)
    $18 Michael Cuddyer(notes)

    Comments: It’s too easy to say "regression is coming" for the Hills and Bartletts of the world; the big question is, how much of their 2009 production do they give back? It’s well established that you normally don’t want to buy in on a player after a career year, but when most people don’t seem to accept the career year in the first place, you might be able to sneak through a bargain after all. It all depends on what the player’s perceived value was in the first place. … Dunn’s never been one of my favorites but there are two logical angles that make him worth considering in the top third of your draft; he’s a safe power source in a game that’s lost power in recent years, and he’ll cover two fantasy positions, albeit he’s an absolute butcher in real life with the glove. … I’ll sign off on all the industry love tied to Butler, but the supporting cast isn’t going to help his production numbers. The Royals have two of my favorite players, a superstar now (Zack Greinke(notes)) and a superstar to come (Butler), and still I don’t give them any chance in the mediocre AL Central.

    $17 Elvis Andrus(notes)
    $17 Dan Uggla(notes)
    $17 Howie Kendrick(notes)
    $16 Chipper Jones(notes)
    $16 Lance Berkman(notes)
    $15 Adrian Beltre(notes)
    $15 Asdrubal Cabrera(notes)
    $15 Chris Davis(notes)
    $15 Michael Young(notes)
    $15 Stephen Drew(notes)
    $14 Adam LaRoche(notes)
    $14 James Loney(notes)
    $14 Jose Lopez(notes)
    $14 Ian Stewart(notes)
    $14 Yunel Escobar(notes)
    $13 Jorge Cantu(notes)
    $13 Kelly Johnson(notes)
    $13 Garrett Jones(notes)
    $13 Rickie Weeks(notes)

    Comments: Andrus still needs to prove he can get it done on the road, but I like the growth we saw in the second half of 2009, and only some sort of injury will keep him from being a superstar. … After toiling in Dodger Stadium and Safeco Field, Fenway Park will look like a little league field for Adrian Beltre. If I knew he’d play a full season, I’d push him up to the next tier. … I don’t know what to make of James Loney; he’s still just 26 and I like his approach at the plate, but he’s had two significant power dips, including last year’s crash-and-burn (.399 slugging). He turns 26 in May and he’s entering a pivotal season.

    $12 David Ortiz(notes)
    $12 Nick Johnson(notes)
    $12 Placido Polanco(notes)
    $11 Conor Jackson(notes)
    $11 Orlando Cabrera(notes)
    $11 Paul Konerko(notes)
    $11 Rafael Furcal(notes)
    $10 Casey Blake(notes)
    $10 Jhonny Peralta(notes)
    $10 Todd Helton(notes)
    $10 Ryan Theriot(notes)
    $10 Martin Prado(notes)
    $9 Alcides Escobar(notes)
    $9 Clint Barmes(notes)
    $9 Alex Gordon(notes)

    Comments: Ortiz has a sneaky 1B-eligibility to him and he rallied nicely after a nightmare start in 2009, but he’s had two years of problems on the road and against lefties, and more than anything he looks like a Mo Vaughn clone to me. This isn’t going to end well. … The Rockies really should move Helton to the No. 2 slot, but seniority and clubhouse presence seems to matter more to that team than it does in other cities. … I’d probably be talking myself into Gordon if he hadn’t busted his thumb. Let’s just forget we had this conversation for now.

    $8 Troy Glaus(notes)
    $7 Everth Cabrera(notes)
    $7 Chris Getz(notes)
    $7 Edwin Encarnacion(notes)
    $7 Juan Uribe(notes)
    $7 Miguel Tejada(notes)
    $7 Mike Lowell(notes)
    $7 J.J. Hardy(notes)
    $7 Marco Scutaro(notes)
    $7 Kevin Kouzmanoff(notes)
    $7 Scott Sizemore(notes)
    $6 Mark DeRosa(notes)
    $5 Adam Kennedy(notes)
    $5 Casey McGehee(notes)
    $5 Chase Headley(notes)
    $5 Erick Aybar(notes)
    $5 Ian Desmond(notes)
    $5 Orlando Hudson(notes)
    $4 Brandon Inge(notes)
    $4 Mark Ellis(notes)
    $4 Scott Rolen(notes)

    Comments: Cabrera’s got the eyes and wheels to man the leadoff spot, in theory, but will be be a plus player in any category other than stolen bases? What will the lineup look like if Adrian Gonzalez isn’t around come mid-season? And how much will Cabrera run if Tony Gwynn keeps the leadoff spot, potentially pushing the shortstop down to the lower part of the order? I’ll take Cabrera if the cost comes to me, but I’m not chasing. … I’d be more bullish on Uribe as a Swiss Army Knife guy if I knew for sure he had a regular gig. But you know the Giants, they love their older players; something will likely open up eventually. … Cristian Guzman has no right to be playing ahead of Kennedy, Desmond, or just about anyone else. Do the right thing, Washington.

    $3 *Sean Rodriguez(notes)
    $3 Akinori Iwamura(notes)
    $3 Freddy Sanchez(notes)
    $3 Mark Teahen(notes)
    $3 Maicer Izturis(notes)
    $3 Kazuo Matsui(notes)
    $3 Jack Wilson(notes)
    $3 Skip Schumaker(notes)
    $2 Alberto Callaspo(notes)
    $2 Eric Young
    $2 Cliff Pennington(notes)
    $2 Felipe Lopez(notes)
    $2 Luis Castillo(notes)
    $2 Luis Valbuena(notes)
    $2 Garrett Atkins(notes)
    $1 Brandon Wood(notes)
    $1 Edgar Renteria(notes)
    $0 Cristian Guzman
    $0 Dustin Ackley(notes)
    $0 Eugenio Velez(notes)
    $0 Jake Fox(notes)
    $0 David Freese(notes)
    $0 Julio Lugo(notes)
    $0 Mike Aviles(notes)
    $0 Mat Gamel(notes)

    I’ve said my piece, it’s time for you to chime in. Let’s get this smoothed out, together.