Author: Scott Pianowski

Let’s be honest and up front this week, amigos – we’re getting quantity over quality at the 2010 Bob Hope Classic. No Top 10 players are on the grounds, no major names. Sure, Justin Leonard is a pleasant chap, and Chad Campbell looks primed for a big year, and this could be the spot for Tim Clark to break through. There’s always some reason to watch. But at the end of the day, we’re looking at a five-day birdie fest without a ton of curb appeal.

Here’s hoping the weather plays nice – the early forecasts are ominous – and let’s see if we can pick some fantasy sleepers out of the hat.

Ben Crane: His reputation for slow play has tended to obscure the bigger story here  – Crane has some game. He’s already bagged a couple of wins on tour and consider his earning rank over his eight-year career: 48, 63, 184 (injured), 58, 19, 76, 50, 71. He’s never missed a check in seven visits to the Bob Hope, including a fifth-place run in 2004 and a 12-place finish two years back. Fear the turtle.

Charley Hoffman: I’m using a very broad definition for sleeper with Hoffman because he’s somewhere in the Top 15-20 range with the oddsmakers this week. If you’re in a one-and-done pool it might be a good time to dial up the Concrete Blonde; he captured the Bob Hope Classic in his 2007 debut and he’s followed that up nicely the last two seasons (T8, T19).

Mathew Goggin: I feel like I’ve been chasing this one for a while, a no-win player who’s overdue for a victory. Goggin has four checks in five stops at The Hope, including a T39 two years back and a T19 last year. He knows how to do the five-day crawl.

Fredrik Jacobson: The Swede grabbed a T15 check the last time he made this stop, and he’s managed to collect around $4 million stateside the last three seasons despite a modest schedule over here. Jacobson is four years away from his 40th birthday – I have a hunch we’ll see his career season show up sometime in the first half of the decade.

Bill Haas: He’s yet to make a deep run through five visits to the Bob Hope but he’s at least comfortable with the format and the pace of play (finishes of 25, 16, 27, 19, 34). You’re getting a solid pedigree here, of course – Jay Haas was an established touring pro for years – and the younger Haas quietly worked his way into the Top 100 last year. Haas will need straighter driving elsewhere on tour to be a factor – it’s probably the only notable weakness in his game right now – but this week at the Hope, feel free to grip it and rip it.

Okay, hockey peeps, it’s time to do that ranking thing that we’re so found of in the other roto sports. Here’s how I’d value every NHL defenseman of consequence if I were headed into a new draft tonight; assume the stats are set to zero, who’s the most valuable for the rest of the season? For stat categories, consider a basic Yahoo! league: goals, assists, plus-minus, power play points, penalty minutes, shots. And as always, your respectful and intelligent disagreement is most welcome in the comments, we’ll get through this list together and make it as airtight as possible.

1. Mike Green(notes)
2. Dan Boyle(notes)
3. Duncan Keith(notes)
4. Andrei Markov(notes)
5. Chris Pronger(notes)
6. Nicklas Lidstrom(notes)
7. Mark Streit(notes)
8. Brian Campbell(notes)
9. Zdeno Chara(notes)
10. Drew Doughty(notes)
11. Shea Weber(notes)
12. Dion Phaneuf(notes)
13. Tobias Enstrom(notes)
14. Ed Jovanovski(notes)
15. Marc-Andre Bergeron(notes)
16. Sergei Gonchar(notes)
17. Tomas Kaberle(notes)
18. Christian Ehrhoff(notes)
19. Ryan Suter(notes)
20. Kurtis Foster(notes)
21. Scott Niedermayer(notes)

Comments: Green’s basically a Top 10 fantasy player right now, regardless of position. I’ll consider him as a possible first-rounder next year, depending on where my draft slot falls. … The way Phaneuf has played this year, you can’t blame Team Canada for leaving him off the Olympic team. … It’s never been a matter of offensive ability for Foster, he just needs to show he can stay healthy. … I’d love to see where the Kings will be in 2-3 years if they can lock up their young nucleus of talent. … Lidstrom has quietly rigthed the ship with a 2-12-14 run over his last 15 games.  

22. Brian Rafalski(notes)
23. Marek Zidlicky(notes)
24. Brent Seabrook(notes)
25. Keith Yandle(notes)
26. Bryan McCabe(notes)
27. Tyler Myers(notes)
28. Mark Giordano(notes)
29. Ian White(notes)
30. Joni Pitkanen(notes)
31. Sami Salo(notes)
32. Keith Ballard(notes)
33. Matt Carle(notes)
34. Erik Johnson(notes)
35. Jay Bouwmeester(notes)
36. Alexander Edler(notes)
37. Lubomir Visnovsky(notes)
38. Rob Blake(notes)
39. Kim Johnsson(notes)
40. James Wisniewski(notes)
41. Ryan Whitney(notes)

Comments: Carle doesn’t seem all that interesting after you look past his plus-minus rating, and Johnson’s scoring has fallen off after a quick start. Of course Johnson down the road projects to be a Norris Trophy winner; no one feels that way about Carle. … Yandle would have a larger rep if he weren’t toiling in semi-obscurity with the Coyotes. … Say this for the Canucks, they sure have a lot of defensemen who can move the puck. I might be ranking Salo a spec too high; we know he’s never far away from his next injury. … Visnovsky is about as consistent as a paper cup in a hurricane.

42. Jack Johnson(notes)
43. Dennis Wideman(notes)
44. Kimmo Timonen(notes)
45. Fedor Tyutin(notes)
46. Niklas Kronwall(notes)
47. Dennis Seidenberg(notes)
48. Anton Volchenkov(notes)
49. Tom Poti(notes)
50. Michael Del Zotto(notes)
51. Derek Morris(notes)
52. Zach Bogosian(notes)
53. Zbynek Michalek(notes)
54. Barret Jackman(notes)
55. Adrian Aucoin(notes)
56. Alex Goligoski(notes)
57. John-Michael Liles(notes)
58. Matt Carkner(notes)
59. Sheldon Souray(notes)
60. Stephane Robidas(notes)
61. Jeff Schultz(notes)
62. Kris Letang(notes)
63. Pavel Kubina(notes)
64. Andy Greene(notes)
65. Jack Hillen(notes)
66. Anton Stralman(notes)

Comments: Del Zotto looked a lot more appealing in November than he does now. … Bogosian’s rating has dropped 19 points from last year, and he’s not looking any more confident on offense, either. You can’t deny the star potential here, but it’s going to take a while. … Stralman is still handy on offense but he’s got problems in his own end, minus-8 in January to this point. … The story is much the same with Goligoski, regular scoring but too many minuses next to his record.

67. Michal Rozsival(notes)
68. Chris Butler(notes)
69. Filip Kuba(notes)
70. Francois Beauchemin(notes)
71. Mattias Ohlund(notes)
72. Ron Hainsey(notes)
73. Denis Grebeshkov(notes)
74. Kyle Quincey(notes)
75. Johnny Oduya(notes)
76. Cam Barker(notes)
77. Johnny Boychuk(notes)
78. Steve Montador(notes)
79. Roman Hamrlik(notes)
80. Robyn Regehr(notes)
81. Tim Gleason(notes)
82. Jaroslav Spacek(notes)
83. Victor Hedman(notes)
84. Braydon Coburn(notes)
85. Bryan Allen(notes)
86. Matt Gilroy(notes)
87. Chris Phillips(notes)
88. *Jason Demers(notes)
89. Carlo Colaiacovo(notes)

That’s all I got for now; let’s see your ranks and observations in the comments.

When it comes to fantasy sports I’ll just be up front about it – I’m a tinkerer, a point-and-click guy, a pick-up junkie. I’m generally among the add/drop leaders in any pool I play in, and with that in mind it’s a good time to examine some rules of thumb as we’re trying to find good stuff cheap – help on the free agent wire.

• Follow the shots: Show me a guy who’s consistently firing the puck at the net and I’ll show you a guy who’s going to have fantasy value, even if the points aren’t falling his way right now. The Patric Hornqvist(notes) breakthrough was foreshadowed by a SOG spike, and the same goes for Niclas Bergfors(notes).

• Sort through the trash: Any free-agent trolling should always start with the recently-cut list of players; while some of those discarded guys clearly don’t hold any current value, you’re also likely to stumble on a few gems, guys who were cut because they were caught up in a numbers game from one of your deeper competitors. There’s nothing quite as satisfying as getting a producer for nothing and spiting your arch rival in the process.

• Pedigree matters: Be constantly on the lookout for a fizzled first-round pick that might be starting to put things together, or a highly-touted kid who’s finally getting a shot on a deep roster. And be aware that some positions take longer for players to mature; this is almost always true of taller defensemen and goalies as well.

• Cut many times, point and click once: Forget the seasonal stats when you’re strolling along the waiver wire; it’s more important to track what’s happening lately. Make sure you’re constantly looking at the leaders over the last month (and occasionally the last week), and make sure you also sort the FA list by any stat categories you might be light in. And again, when all else fails, shots on goal are a good way to break the tie.

• Life in a parallel universe: One of the advantages of being in too many leagues is the knowledge you can pick up by analyzing and comparing the player movement from pool to pool. The emerging forward you just missed out on in League A might be free for the taking in League B.

• It’s all about the power play: About a quarter of the scoring in the league comes on the man advantage, so it’s critical that you know who’s getting a chance on each team’s first and second units. Just monitoring the time spent on the PP has a value, it’s basically each head coach telling you how he feels about his personnel.

• When in doubt, get to the rink: There’s no better way to scout a player than to see him with your own eyes, whether it’s on TV (hopefully in HD) or in person at the arena. And don’t be afraid to give the radio guys some time, at least when you’re in the car; the announcers in this medium know they have to tell a more-detailed story and often the radio scouting tips are better than the stuff you hear on TV.

These are just a few of the ways we do what we do; what’s on your hit list? Let’s share some ideas in the comments.

Fantasy golf season is here and I want to give you a hand (well, at least until the baseball season starts up again). So once a week I’ll be blogging here and discussing some less-than-obvious picks that I like for the upcoming PGA Tour event. Keep the lines of communication open, amigos; help me to help you.

This week we head to the Sony Open in Hawaii, a fun place to be so long as you’re not vacationing with the Brady Kids. Let’s see what diamonds in the rough we can uncover.

Jerry Kelly: I’ve always had a soft spot for this guy; maybe it’s his Midwestern roots, maybe it’s the fact that he went to college at the University of Hartford (cue up the Brass Bonanza), maybe it’s the fact that he needs the little things to succeed on the course because he’s not a long hitter. Kelly knows what it takes to succeed at Waialae Country Club – he won the Sony Open in 2002 and he’s had plenty of strong finishes since then (4, 5, cut, 13, 13, 3).

Rickie Fowler: He was a hit in limited time on tour last year, in part because no one told the 21-year-old how difficult it truly is to make a go of it out here. Like Webb Simpson early last season, I’m going to use Fowler in the early events when his enthusiasm and energy can hopefully make up for the experience and course knowledge he’s spotting the rest of the field.

Bo Van Pelt: I’ve always been surprised he hasn’t gotten more mileage from his underrated ball-striking skills. You’re going the risk-reward route with Van Pelt – he’s missed 5-of-8 cuts at this stop – but I like the fact that two of his checks landed him in the Top 15. If he can survive into the weekend, maybe something can happen. The long-overdue win from 2009 should give him an extra surge of confidence this year. Linus and Lucy are rooting for you, big guy.

Pat Perez, Charles Howell: I’m using the same angle for these guys so I’ll lump them into one pick – we’ve learned over the years that it’s best to ride these horses early in the season, then tread carefully during the summer months. Both players have snappy resumes here (Perez offers 6-of-8 cuts made, five Top 20s, fourth two years back; Howell has never missed the cut, and he’s bagged four Top-4 finishes).

Carl Pettersson: Let’s examine his money-list finish over the six years: 52nd, 31st, 16th, 40th, 21st, 142nd. Talent just doesn’t wither away overnight; this guy won three tournaments from 2005-2008 and cashed 20 checks or more for five straight years before last season. Put him on the "last year’s bums" list and enjoy your discount. He’s just 2-for-5 at the Sony, though he did finish tenth in 2006.

You want a pick of the non-obvious variety? Give me David Toms and Robert Allenby (he‘ll win this year). I look forward your angles and selections in the comments.

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Photo via US Presswire

We had three blowouts during Wild-Card weekend and one instant classic. Let’s clear out the notebook, with an eye towards our fantasy futures.

• Start plotting your strategy and rigging your lottery if you plan on having a share of the Packers passing game for fantasy 2010. These guys are going to cost you, especially the triggerman, Aaron Rodgers(notes).

The Packers didn’t get a victory in Sunday’s desert duel but the Green Bay offense made an emphatic final statement (493 yards, 32 first downs, 45 points). Rodgers was the top scoring quarterback in most scoring systems this year and he’s downright lethal now that his pocket awareness has grown up. His sneaky mobility (316 rushing yards) and handiness at the goal line (six ground TDs, including one Sunday) provide an extra push over the top – I can’t see how Rodgers won’t be the consensus No. 1 quarterback on everyone’s board next spring (magazine season) and summer (drafting for keeps). A deep receiving corps doesn’t hurt the cause.

Retire all that talk about Jermichael Finley(notes) being next year’s tight end sleeper – the freakishly-talented Finley went off in the second half of 2009 and everyone noticed. Heck, even if you just watch the highlights, you’ll see Finley a lot, he’s always leaping over some defenders or running past another guy. Finley collected a tasty 38-416-4 line over his last seven games of the regular season, then tacked on 159 yards on six catches against the Cardinals. The Packers realize what they have in Finley; they move him all around the formation and use him as a wide receiver about half the time he’s on the field. Finley figured to be a Top 5 tight end selection just about everywhere.

• The Cedric Benson(notes) story should roll into 2010. He just turned 27 a couple of weeks ago. The identity of the Bengals offense has shifted; this team runs first (usually with six offensive linemen), asks questions later. And the Bengals defense helps Benson as well, even if it’s in a subtle way; you won’t see a lot of blowouts in Cincinnati, which keeps the rushing game relevant for four quarters.

• The obligations of Saturday forced me to catch half of the Bengals and Jets in the car, and that turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Tom Hammond, Joe Theismann and Joe Gibbs were one of the worst modern broadcast teams ever assembled for a playoff game.

• Kurt Warner(notes) should have been a walk-in Hall of Famer before a single play was snapped in 2009, but his strong season and brilliant performance Sunday will probably sway any of the doubters. How did Warner not get a perfect QB rating from this ridiculous line (29-for-33, 379 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT)?

• Anquan Boldin(notes) is a heck of a ballplayer but he’s merely a luxury for Arizona at this point; Steve Breaston(notes), Early Doucet(notes) and Jerheme Urban(notes) give the Cardinals excellent depth behind Larry Fitzgerald(notes). Boldin has wanted a trade out of the desert for years; there’s probably a good chance he gets his wish this time around.

• Beanie Wells(notes) is a far superior runner to Tim Hightower(notes), no one disputes this, but I won’t be surprised if Wells is mildly overdrafted next year. Hightower is still a fantastic pass blocker, while Wells has a long way to go in that area, and Wells also has struggled with ball security at times this year.

• Joe Flacco’s efficiency(notes) stats from 2009 were a little better than his rookie year, but that doesn’t mean he’s really improved as a passer; the emergence of Ray Rice(notes) (as a rusher and receiver) had a lot to do with the bump. Baltimore desperately needs to get a major vertical threat into their offense next year.

• The Jets did a fantastic job handling Mark Sanchez(notes) this weekend and the rookie stuck just about every throw – he was 12-for-15 with two drops – but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be a franchise player down the road. It’s one thing to produce in a game where your rushing attack and defense help out; it’s another thing to lift a team to victory on a day where nothing else is working. The Jets don’t need Sanchez to steer the offense as a rookie, but in a few years he’ll be expected to. It’s too early to know if he can handle that sort of responsibility.

• The Jets backfield for 2010 will be a lot simpler if Leon Washington(notes) isn’t able to come back from his broken leg. Shonn Greene(notes) has future star written all over him and Thomas Jones(notes) probably has at least one strong year left, especially when you consider the depth of New York’s offensive line.

• It’s been a steep fall for Marion Barber(notes) – he’s clearly the No. 3 runner for Dallas when you consider the salaries of the backs, and even if the dollars are pushed aside, he still might be the third guy here. That said, the Cowboys need to be smarter with Felix Jones(notes); it was crazy to give him a carry inside of three minutes Saturday while the Cowboys were holding a 20-point lead. Jones is explosive and fragile, a sports car; handle with care.

• If we can all agree that choking exists in sports (hello, Neil Rackers(notes)), doesn’t that sort of prove that clutch play exists as well? Look around your world, your job, your personal experiences – doesn’t it seem like some people handle pressure better than others?

• No good team fails in the hurry-up offense quite like the Philadelphia Eagles.

• New England’s no-show against Baltimore was only a mild surprise; the Patriots passing game wasn’t consistent week-to-week in 2009 and the only thing the team really did well was dispose of weaker opponents. Decisively beating the early-season Titans or the sack-challenged Jaguars might earn you some respect with the power-rating crowd, but it doesn’t mean you’re going to beat good teams. No open-minded New England fan expected multiple wins in this year’s AFC playoffs. Sunday was probably the Last Day of the Patriots Dynasty.

• Were the officials targeting Darrelle Revis(notes) on Saturday? Two of the flags on Revis were ticky-tack all the way.

• The Bengals wasted their franchise spot on kicker Shayne Graham(notes) in 2009, a silly move when you consider how fungible the position tends to be. No skilled fantasy owner would make this same mistake. Know where to devote your resources.

Prefer your Brunch on Sundays? Follow me on Twitter.

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Photo courtesy US Presswire

There are some lingering Week 17 thoughts in my head, let’s get them down for posterity’s sake.

• For two months we were forced to watch Larry Johnson(notes) slog through unproductive carries in Kansas City. When the Chiefs finally kicked Johnson to the curb, his YPC was a miserable 2.9. Then Jamaal Charles(notes) got his chance to run with the starting unit and the rest is fantasy history; that shiny new (virtual) trophy on your mantle probably might have come courtesy of the Charles explosion.

What can we learn from all this? For one thing, most power backs are reliant on a capable offensive line; if you take away any semblance of quality blocking, those runners won’t go far. Charles clearly proved he’s a better player than Johnson at this stage of their careers, but he also succeeded because he fits the Kansas City spread attack better. Charles has better quickness, reads blocks better, is worlds-better in the screen game (LJ was forever lost in the passing game, catching or blocking), and has better balance and lateral agility.

Can an undersized back like Charles (199 pounds) handle the consistent pounding that a No. 1 back takes? Probably, assuming team and player continue to play it smart. The Chiefs need to realize that backs take far less physical punishment when they’re used as receivers; Charles saw 17 percent of his touches as a pass-catcher this year and Todd Haley should work on increasing that number next year. And Charles can prolong his career (and increase his utility) by continuing to be smart about his body, knowing when to call it quits on a run and go into self-preservation mode. Warrick Dunn(notes) had this skill, Tiki Barber(notes) had this skill, and Charles, from what I’ve seen to this point, understands it as well.

Forget Charles being merely a first-round pick in 2010, I’m starting to view him as someone who’s worthy of a Top 6 selection. Who’s with me? If you wouldn’t take that plunge, tell me everyone you’d prefer to Charles going forward.

• Very quietly the Packers have solved their sack problem – after watching Aaron Rodgers(notes) take 41 sacks over the first nine weeks of the year, he was only dropped nine times in the last seven games. Part of this was better play from the pass blocking of course – getting Mark Tauscher(notes) back at right tackle was a notable key – but in general QB sacks are more about the quarterback than the public believes. For all of Rodgers’s physical gifts – and I’m very high on him – his pocket awareness has been a work in progress during his second year as a starter. By the end of the year we can safely say he’s arrived as an elite quarterback in all facets.

• The Colts didn’t seem to care about going 16-0, but getting Dallas Clark(notes) and Reggie Wayne(notes) to the 100-catch level was really important. Explain that one to me.

• Although Shonn Greene(notes) was coming on like gangbusters at the end of the year (5.3 YPC in the second half), it was telling that the Jets continued to use Thomas Jones(notes) as the goal-line option. This reflects two things at play – there’s a lot to be said for being quick and decisive at the goal line, and when a back shows a fumbling tendency (as Greene did), teams are often hesitant to trust you in the scoring area. Greene nonetheless has a bright future in front of him, but Jones isn’t going away without a fight. Look for Jones to go in the late-second or third round next year, with Greene an upside play around Round 5.

• The NFL doesn’t need to add any gimmicky rules to try to legitimize Week 17. Any team that’s run away from its conference – as the Colts did – has earned the right to shut things down if it prefers to. I’d suggest some small tweaks to address the Week 17 issue; for starters, open up playoff seeding so a divisional title only guarantees you a spot in the tournament, not a Top 4 seed. Had this been in play this year both the Packers and Cardinals would have played to win last week. It’s also a good idea to stack as many divisional games and conference games as you can for the late weeks; keep those races open.

Somewhat related to this theme, it would be a gross error for the NFL to adopt an 18-game schedule. The players already pay enough of a tax with their bodies and a longer season will only add to the possibility of meaningless late-season games. If Roger Goodell wants a longer season, why not give everyone two bye weeks?

• I grew up in New England and I’m a Patriots fan from way back (the Steve Grogan years), but let’s be fair about Tom Brady’s(notes) season – he wasn’t the best pick for Comeback Player of the Year award (Vince Young(notes) and Carnell Williams(notes) were much better choices) and his Pro Bowl bid belonged to Ben Roethlisberger(notes). Popularity goes a long way.

• Up in the Air was the best movie I’ve seen since Sideways.

• There’s a simple lesson with the Jim Zorn era – promoting a coach multiple levels at one time is pretty much a guaranteed mistake. Zorn had never been a coordinator or a play caller before the Redskins gave him the head coaching gig. Okay, the idea wasn’t for Zorn to get that spot immediately – he was initially hired to run the offense, then got the big chair when several others passed – but the rule of thumb still applies.

• There must be more to David Segui HOF vote story, right? Is this a clerical error? Is it a joke of some sort? A clerical error? There’s really no rational case to be made for Segui to even be on the ballot, let alone pulling votes. Pat Hentgen and Kevin Appier have no right to be grabbing votes either, but they’re several rungs above the Seguis of the world.

• There’s nothing quite like a football game in the snow. Don’t let the outdoor stadiums in cold-weather cities die out, NFL.

This looks like the most wide-open NFL playoffs in recent memory; no one is favored by more than four points in the opening round, the NFC looks very evenly matched, and the Colts have all sorts of issues to sort out between now and their debut in two weeks. The sheet below is to be used for drafts that carry through the entire playoffs; game potential is the biggest thing to grab now, over pure talent and scoring potential. More than ever this list is about handicapping the 11 games to come.

To the rankage:

Quarterback
1. Peyton Manning(notes)
2. Philip Rivers(notes)
3. Drew Brees(notes)
4. Brett Favre(notes)
5. Tony Romo(notes)
6. Aaron Rodgers(notes)
7. Kurt Warner(notes)
8. Tom Brady(notes)
9. Donovan McNabb(notes)
10. Joe Flacco(notes)
11. Carson Palmer(notes)
12. Mark Sanchez(notes)

Comments: I’ll be surprised if any AFC team gets past the Colts or Chargers in Round 2, but I can’t decide on a definitive favorite after that. The Chargers look like the conference’s best team on paper right now, but Indy’s got home field and maybe the Colts can get their groove back by pasting someone in the Divisional Round.

I don’t see Brees as much better a play than Favre or Romo; the Cowboys might be the most ticklish play on the board. Sure, they could lose to Philly this week, but this might be the league’s deepest roster and I’d give them a shot at beating anyone, any venue. I think the Jets have an excellent shot at beating Cincinnati, but the easiest call of this entire exercise was burying Sanchez at the bottom of the list. The Jets will try to win in spite of Sanchez, playing hide-the-quarterback all the way.

Running Back
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Joseph Addai(notes)
3. Ryan Grant(notes)
4. Marion Barber(notes)
5. LaDainian Tomlinson(notes)
6. Thomas Jones(notes)
7. Pierre Thomas(notes)
8. Ray Rice(notes)
9. Cedric Benson(notes)
10. Darren Sproles(notes)
11. Beanie Wells(notes)
12. Reggie Bush(notes)
13. Felix Jones(notes)
14. Shonn Greene(notes)
15. Donald Brown(notes)
16. Brian Westbrook(notes)
17. Tim Hightower(notes)
18. Willis McGahee(notes)
19. Mike Bell(notes)
20. Kevin Faulk(notes)
21. Sammy Morris(notes)
22. LeSean McCoy(notes)
23. Chester Taylor(notes)
24. Fred Taylor(notes)
25. Leonard Weaver(notes)
26. Mike Tolbert(notes)
27. Brandon Jackson(notes)
28. Laurence Maroney 
29. Larry Johnson(notes)
30. Tashard Choice(notes)
31. Jacob Hester(notes)
32. Le’Ron McClain(notes)
33. Brian Leonard(notes)

Comments: My faith in the Chargers pushes Sproles up the list, and don’t overlook guys like Hester and Tolbert as REM-type sleepers if you see San Diego getting three games. Thomas says he’ll play through three broken ribs, it hurts just to type that. McCoy was hardly used in Week 17 but that might have been a flow-of-the-game fluke, albeit he has to contend with Westbrook and the underrated Weaver for touches. I wouldn’t pick Maroney on a dare.

Wide Receiver
1. Reggie Wayne(notes)
2. Vincent Jackson(notes)
3. Miles Austin(notes)
4. Sidney Rice(notes)
5. Marques Colston(notes)
6. Randy Moss(notes)
7. Donald Driver(notes)
8. Percy Harvin(notes)
9. Larry Fitzgerald(notes)
10. DeSean Jackson(notes)
11. Pierre Garcon(notes)
12. Greg Jennings(notes)
13. Anquan Boldin(notes)
14. Robert Meachem(notes)
15. Malcom Floyd(notes)
16. Julian Edelman(notes)
17. Austin Collie(notes)
18. Roy Williams
19. Jeremy Maclin(notes)
20. Patrick Crayton(notes)
21. Devery Henderson(notes)
22. Braylon Edwards(notes)
23. Derrick Mason(notes)
24. Jerricho Cotchery(notes)
25. Bernard Berrian(notes)
26. Chad Ochocinco(notes)
27. James Jones(notes)
28. Laveranues Coles(notes)
29. Jason Avant(notes)
30. Steve Breaston(notes)
31. Legedu Naanee(notes)
32. Mark Clayton(notes)
33. Sam Hurd(notes)
34. Brad Smith(notes)
35. Jordy Nelson(notes)
36. Sam Aiken(notes)
37. Early Doucet(notes)

Comments: Ochocinco is nicked up and facing the NFL’s best shutdown corner, Darrelle Revis(notes). Avoid No. 85 at all costs. The Ravens will throw the kitchen sink at Moss but their secondary personnel is no longer a plus group. When you’re filling out the bottom of your roster, a deeper pick off the Colts or Chargers might make more sense than a mediocre player off a team mildly favored this week. The two games with the lowest upset potential, as I see it, are the games at Indy and San Diego next week.

Tight End
1. Dallas Clark(notes)
2. Antonio Gates(notes)
3. Jason Witten(notes)
4. Jermichael Finley(notes)
5. Visanthe Shiancoe(notes)
6. Brent Celek(notes)
7. Benjamin Watson(notes)
8. Jeremy Shockey(notes)
9. Dustin Keller(notes)
10. Todd Heap(notes)
11. Martellus Bennett(notes)
12. David Thomas(notes)
13. Ben Patrick(notes)
14. J.P. Foschi(notes)
15. Donald Lee(notes)
16. Chris Baker
17. Spencer Havner(notes)

Comments: This list sort of ranked itself, a lot of the favored clubs have stud talents at this position. Finley, for what it’s worth, will be a Top 5 tight end on most lists next summer.

Kicker
1. Nate Kaeding(notes)
2. Ryan Longwell(notes)
3. Adam Vinatieri(notes)/Matt Stover
4. Garrett Hartley(notes)
5. Mason Crosby(notes)
6. Shaun Suisham(notes)
7. David Akers(notes)
8. Stephen Gostkowski(notes)
9. Neil Rackers(notes)
10. Jay Feely(notes)
11. Shayne Graham(notes)
12. Billy Cundiff(notes)

Comments: If there’s one position to go strictly by game potential, it’s the kicker spot. But if you draft early in the week, I’d be leery on taking a chance on the Indy guys, given the health concerns.

Defense
1. Colts
2. Cowboys
3. Chargers
4. Vikings
5. Packers
6. Saints
7. Jets
8. Eagles
9. Bengals
10. Ravens
11. Patriots
12. Cardinals

It’s just about post time, amigos. Who do you like?

—

Images via Getty Images

We know some of you are still scrapping for a fantasy title, so let’s do our usual cross-check and see who’s in and who’s out for Week 17. 

• The Saints play to start Mark Brunell(notes) at Carolina Sunday while Drew Brees(notes) is the No. 3 quarterback – at least that’s what Sean Payton told Sports Illustrated’s Peter King. With Brees apparently out and Pierre Thomas(notes) out, it’s probably a dangerous week to go anywhere near the New Orleans offense; although Payton said earlier in the week that his team would take this game seriously, he might not be following through on that theme. We’ll see what the Saints say on Saturday.

• Things are getting downright strange in Denver, where Josh McDaniels has essentially benched Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler for Sunday’s critical game against Kansas City. Marshall has been dealing with a tweaked hamstring and apparently McDaniels wasn’t thrilled with the wideout’s pain threshold. "There’s a lot of players that play with things that are more difficult to play with than what he has" McDaniels sharply offered to the media. The decision to sit Scheffler is also thought to be attitude-related, though the coach didn’t get into specifics. The Broncos will also be without Eddie Royal(notes) (neck).

• Philip Rivers(notes) will start against Washington but Norv Turner says Billy Volek(notes) will see significant time as well. Don’t risk your Week 17 game on anything tied to San Diego. There’s a chance Vincent Jackson won’t play at all due to his Achilles injury.

• Devin Hester(notes) (calf) has been removed from Chicago’s injury report, which takes away from the Devin Aromashodu(notes) buzz, unfortunately.

• Jerome Harrison(notes) (hip) had a full workout Friday and is listed as probable for Sunday’s home game against Jacksonville. Looks like we can use him with confidence.

• Heads up on Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (foot/ankles), who didn’t work Friday and is considered questionable for Sunday. Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News doesn’t expect Bradshaw to play much if at all, and with the Giants out of the playoff hunt there’s a legitimate question as to how much they might want to expose Bradshaw in what’s a meaningless game to them. Gartrell Johnson(notes) is the next running option, if you’re really desperate. Hakeem Nicks(notes) (hamstring) is listed as probable, while Mario Manningham(notes) (shoulder) is questionable.

• DeAngelo Williams(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice all week and is considered doubtful. Get ready for plenty of Jonathan Stewart(notes) (heel) against New Orleans.

• Tom Brady(notes) (various) is listed as probable and barring a late change of heart from the Patriots he’ll start at Houston. Context clues point to Brady playing somewhat deep in this ballgame, but you know Bill Belichick – he’s not telling us anything of substance and he can always pull a surprise at the last second with no warning.

• Hines Ward(notes) (hamstring) took all the reps Friday and is considered probable for the must-win game at Miami. Check back Sunday, but it looks like he’ll go.

• Derrick Mason(notes) (knee) was limited all week and will be a game-time decision at Oakland. It’s hard to imagine Mason not playing in this must-win game, but you’re also dealing with a risky late start here, so there’s more risk than usual.

• Michael Turner(notes) (ankle) missed another session Friday and it would be a major surprise if he dressed at Tampa Bay. The Falcons did have Matt Ryan(notes) (toe) and Tony Gonzalez(notes) (calf) for some snaps; Ryan should start while Gonzalez looks like a game-time decision.

• Ricky Williams(notes) (shoulder) was limited Friday and looks like a risky option against Pittsburgh; while the Steelers defense has been in shambles against the pass most of the year, it’s still stout against the run. Look for Lex Hilliard(notes) to get more work than usual Sunday.

• Beanie Wells (groin) is listed as questionable and had a limited day Friday (hopefully it didn’t take away from his enjoyment of the Rose Bowl). The Cardinals might choose to play it safe with him against Green Bay.

• Steven Jackson (back) hasn’t been practicing and once again is a game-time decision. The unexciting Kenneth Darby(notes) figures to start if Jackson can’t go.

• Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) (ankle) took all the Friday reps and is probable to start for the Bills. That makes Terrell Owens(notes) and Lee Evans(notes) a lot more viable.

• Justin Fargas(notes) (knee) missed Friday’s work and is considered doubtful for Sunday. Michael Bush(notes) and Darren McFadden(notes) figure to split the work.

• Donald Brown(notes) (illness) took full reps Friday and will probably see a fair amount of action at Buffalo. Don’t look for Peyton Manning(notes) to stick around very long, however, and there’s a good chance Pierre Garcon(notes) (hand) won’t play.

• The Vikings expect Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) (thigh) to play Sunday, though he’s listed as questionable. Check back before kickoff.

• Santana Moss(notes) (knee) had a full practice Friday and is probable for San Diego, if you feel like riding with the Washington passing game.

• Kellen Winslow(notes) (knee) had a full practice Friday and is probable for the home game against Atlanta. He’s worked reasonably well with Josh Freeman(notes), averaging 68 yards a game over the last seven weeks.

• Julius Jones(notes) (ribs/ankle) had a complete practice Friday and will be in the mix against Tennessee, along with Justin Forsett(notes).

• Torry Holt(notes) (finger) won’t play at Cleveland, capping an underwhelming year for him with the Jaguars.

• Lance Moore(notes) (ankle) is another Saint who won’t play at Carolina, and the team also has problems at tight end, where Jeremy Shockey(notes) (toe, questionable) and David Thomas(notes) (calf, doubtful) are both banged up (Saturday update: Thomas didn’t make the trip). Don’t gamble on either of those guys.

• Ricky Schmitt(notes) (groin) has been placed on IR, which means Shane Andrus(notes) will kick for the Niners at St. Louis.

• Steve Smith actually wanted to play through his broken arm this week but the Panthers aren’t going to take that chance. He’s been put on IR and is done for the year. Muhsin Muhammad(notes) (ankle) practiced Friday and should be able to go.

I know some of you crazy kids are using Week 17 for your fantasy hijinks, so let’s take a look at the Wednesday practice report.

• Brandon Marshall(notes) tweaked his hamstring in Wednesday’s practice, a situation we’ll watch very closely up until weekend kickoff. The Broncos, of course, need to win their home game against Kansas City.

• Steven Jackson (back) was held out of practice as per usual and he’ll be a game-time call for Sunday. It’s hard to imagine why the Rams would bother using him here, but we’ll see what we find out around noontime on game day.

• Jonathan Stewart(notes) (heel) didn’t practice Wednesday, as usual, and DeAngelo Williams(notes) (ankle) was also held out. Stewart is expected to go against the Saints, while Williams is very iffy.

• Hakeem Nicks(notes) (hamstring) had a limited Wednesday but he’s still expected to play against Minnesota. He didn’t look bothered by the injury last week, albeit most of his teammates mailed it in against the Panthers. Mario Manningham(notes) (shoulder) didn’t practice at all.

• Devin Hester(notes) (calf) had a limited practice Wednesday. Here’s to hoping he sits out at Detroit, if only so we can get another scouting look at the intriguing Devin Aromashodu(notes).

• Donald Brown(notes) (illness) didn’t practice Wednesday but nonetheless he looks like someone who will probably get a lot of time in Indy’s walk-through at Buffalo this week. Pierre Garcon(notes) (hand) had a limited day and looks iffy at best for Sunday.

• Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (ankle) generally doesn’t practice in the middle of the week and that was the story Wednesday. He’ll probably get plenty of work at Minnesota, in part because Brandon Jacobs(notes) is out for the year.

• Keep an eye on Hines Ward(notes) (hamstring), who didn’t practice Wednesday. The Steelers have a must-win game coming at Miami.

• Michael Turner(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday and the Falcons have no incentive to risk him in a meaningless Week 17 game. Look for Jason Snelling(notes) to start against Tampa Bay. Tony Gonzalez(notes) (calf) and Matt Ryan(notes) (toe) also took the day off.

• Ricky Williams(notes) (shoulder) got some reps Wednesday and will try to go against the Steelers Sunday. Lex Hilliard(notes) is the next option.

• Matt Moore(notes) is dealing with sore ribs and missed some of the reps Wednesday but he should be able to go against the Saints. Keep in mind he’ll be working without Steve Smith, however, and Muhsin Muhammad(notes) (ankle) wasn’t able to practice Wednesday.

• Beanie Wells (groin) missed some reps Wednesday but he’s expected to be available for Sunday’s game with the Packers.

• Derrick Mason(notes) (knee) took Wednesday off but it’s hard to imagine him not playing at Oakland as the Ravens are in a win-and-in scenario.

• Torry Holt(notes) (finger) didn’t practice Wednesday. He’s been so quiet this year, we can’t imagine why you’d want to go to the mat for him in Week 17.

• Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) (thigh) didn’t practice Wednesday but is expected to play against they might be Giants.

• Tom Brady(notes) (various) took Wednesday’s practice off, the MO for the Pats. He’s expected to start at Houston, but it’s hard to say how much he’ll play. In some years Bill Belichick has exposed Brady throughout meaningless Week 17 games, in other years he’s given Brady a brief cameo and then removed him.

• Santana Moss(notes) (knee) missed some reps Wednesday and is no sure thing for the end of the Jim Zorn era against San Diego. Devin Thomas(notes) (ankle) missed the session completely.

• Lance Moore(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday and shouldn’t be trusted for the balance of the year, playoffs included. Jeremy Shockey(notes) (toe) was limited and is no sure thing this week.

• Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) (illness) did some work Wednesday and has a shot to play against the Colts. It’s good news for Terrell Owens(notes) and Lee Evans(notes), you would suppose.

• Kellen Winslow(notes) (knee) had a limited session with the Bucs. He should go against Atlanta but let’s see what we learn the next two days.

—

Photo via US Presswire

Did we just see an Instant Classic at Soldier Field on Monday night? From a fantasy perspective, the answer is a resounding (or a depressing) yes.

The Week 16 fantasy story had a thrilling final scene as the Bears and Vikings tossed around 66 points and 789 yards in an overtime thriller. Did you win or lose your fantasy title on Sidney Rice’s(notes) dramatic touchdown in the final minute of regulation (on fourth down, no less)? Did Robbie Gould’s(notes) miss in overtime decide your match? Was the issue clinched when Adrian Peterson lost a fumble in the extra session? How did Jay Cutler’s(notes) game-winning rainbow to Devin Aromashodu(notes) affect your league? Big plays and major statistical swings were all over the place in this one, especially in the second half.

Let’s hit on the high points and figure out what we learned from all this:

With the Bears: The middle of Cutler’s season was an absolute horror show, but let’s not forget that he played brilliantly in Weeks 2-4 and he was just about letter-perfect against Minnesota here (20-for-35, 273 yards, 4 TDs, 1 pick). Cutler spread the ball around, was decisive, hit some tight windows, and seemed to keep the risky throws at a minimum, at least by his standards (albeit the pick was a force into heavy coverage). The game-winning toss to the sneaky-quick Aromashodu (7-150) was as pretty a throw as you’ll see.

That said, this monster game from Cutler came after most rational fantasy owners wrote him off. Unless you play in a two or three-QB league, Cutler’s explosion here was nothing more than a frustrating footnote to a maddening season. Are you buying or selling Cutler as a 2010 commodity? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Four different players scored the touchdowns for Chicago. Greg Olsen(notes) (3-47) got the first spike but wasn’t a factor after intermission; Desmond Clark(notes) (5-39) shook free on a play-fake at the goal line; and Earl Bennett(notes) (3-35) made a rare visit to the end zone. Matt Forte(notes) slogged out 74 yards on 21 carries, never breaking anything to the second level. Johnny Knox(notes) dinged his ankle in the third quarter and didn’t have a reception, while Devin Hester(notes) (calf) was a game-day scratch. Danieal Manning(notes) set up two of Chicago’s scores with a pair of lengthy kickoff returns.

With the Vikings: You can take a half-full or half-empty approach to Minnesota’s offense here; the Vikes had a bagel at halftime, then exploded for 30 points in the next 30 minutes. Brett Favre(notes) & Company scored on five straight drives in the second half and this probably is the deepest offense in the NFC, even with the suspect play from the offensive tackles.

It took a while for Favre to get his sea legs but there’s nothing wrong with him (26-for-40, 321 yards, 2 TDs). He used everyone he could downfield; nine different Vikings caught passes while no one had more than 58 yards. Favre’s clearly more comfortable spreading the field at the goal line and it showed on the scoring plays. Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) scored his 10th touchdown in the third period, and Rice snagged a score on a beautiful fourth-down fade route in the final seconds of regulation.

Peterson’s night was a mixed bag; it’s hard to complain about 137 total yard and two touchdowns, but he only managed 3.9 yards a carry and there was the critical fumble in overtime, of course. Peterson now has seven fumbles and six lost fumbles, worst among all non-quarterbacks. In fairness to AD, the fumble came on a nasty strip from Chicago’s Hunter Hillenmeyer(notes); to my eyes, that was more of a great defensive play than a gaffe from the ball carrier.

Revisiting the NFC Playoff Picture: Minnesota’s stunning loss was welcome news to the Saints – they’re now locked into the No. 1 seed. The No. 2 seed in conference is up for grabs; four teams have a shot at it (everyone but the Packers). Assuming we don’t see any ties on Sunday, here’s everyone’s path to the No. 2 spot in the NFC:

• If the Eagles beat the Cowboys, they’re the No. 2 seed. Easy, breezy.

• If the Vikings beat the Giants and the Eagles lose, Minnesota is the No. 2 seed.

• If the Cardinals beat the Packers while the Eagles and Vikings both lose, the Cardinals are the No. 2 seed.

• If the Cowboys beat Philly while the Vikings and Cardinals both lose, the Pokes take the No. 2 seed.

We already knew the Eagles and Cowboys would have incentive here, playing for a division title and at least one home game (versus a wild-card spot and a road trip). The Vikings obviously will be out to win, looking to get an off week (also consider they kick off three hours ahead of the Eagles and Cowboys). Things could get a little dicey with the Cardinals; by the time their game starts, they could already know that they have no shot at the No. 2 spot (a Minnesota victory would lock Arizona into 3-4 range). Would the Cardinals expose Kurt Warner(notes) over a full game if there were little at stake? It’s hard to say.

The Packers don’t really have much to play for, they can’t get a home game for the first round, they’re a wild-card team no matter what. And obviously the Saints have a decision on their hands – should they go after the game at Carolina, or play it safe and keep people healthy?

For more on the NFL’s playoff situations, have some interactive fun with Yahoo’s playoff scenario generator. Pick all the games any way you want (ties included!), the generator does the rest.

I watched a bunch of football games on Sunday, let’s empty out the notebook.

• It’s hard to watch the Panthers over the last month and not wonder where they might be today had Matt Moore(notes) taken over for Jake Delhomme(notes) earlier in the season. After all, Delhomme was nothing more than a walking turnover machine through the first three months, while Moore has been excellent in three of his last four starts (for December he’s got a 106.8 rating, 8.0 YPA, 7 TDs, 1 pick). But the Carolina error really came in the offseason, when it decided to give Delhomme a monster extension without any major competition coming in (recall how dreadful he was against Arizona in the playoffs). Once you make that sort of emphatic commitment to a quarterback, it’s not something you can change willy-nilly. The Panthers were basically married to Delhomme for most of the 2009 season, like it or not.

I’m not convinced that Moore is a major solution down the road but at least he’s got some mobility and the ability to throw a catchable deep ball (albeit most of those long passes to Steve Smith succeeded because of No. 89’s ability and adjustments, not really because of Moore). The Panthers have to at least give Moore a chance to compete for the job next year, and if I were a player on this offense, I’d push for an open audition.

• Philip Rivers(notes) should be no worse than No. 2 on the current MVP watch list, and the Chargers offense is a nightmare for any playoff-bound defense. Antonio Gates(notes), matchup nightmare. Vincent Jackson(notes), matchup nightmare. Darren Sproles(notes), matchup nightmare. Malcom Floyd(notes), a darn good fourth option in the passing game. It’s a joke that you always see LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) featured when networks promote a San Diego game, because this is obviously the Philip Rivers show. I’ll be surprised if the Colts and Chargers don’t meet in the AFC Championship Game, and I’ll be a little disappointed too.

• Darrelle Revis(notes) should be the Defensive Player of the Year and it shouldn’t be close. He’s been asked to single-cover a host of elite receivers over four months and he’s essentially beaten everyone, including Andre Johnson(notes), Randy Moss(notes) and Steve Smith. Sunday’s match with Reggie Wayne(notes) was closer than the stats show – obviously Wayne didn’t play a full game and he should have scored on a first-half pass in the end zone – but at the end of it all, fantasy owners who steered away from Revis Island were glad that they did.

• The Patriots rolled over a Jaguars team that they match up perfectly against, but I’ll be surprised if New England goes deep in the playoffs. What can the Pats really hang their hats on? Bill Belichick, Tom Brady(notes) throwing to two elite receivers, a mediocre running game, a defense that won’t stop any good offense in the playoffs. How many 35-31 games can you win in a row? Don’t overreact to what the Pats did against a Jacksonville team that’s essentially a perfect matchup for them.

• The Saints have no confidence in their pass blocking right now and that’s why Drew Brees(notes) was throwing so many short passes for the balance of the loss to Tampa Bay.

• I don’t know anyone who saw this Carnell Williams(notes) comeback coming, and that includes the Bucs (remember they spend a lot of cash to bring in Derrick Ward(notes)). A tip of the cap to you, Caddy. I thought you were deader than disco.

• Here’s the beauty of the Jerome Harrison(notes) story – the better he looks, the more foolish Eric Mangini looks. Everybody wins. I’m still not sold on Harrison being a heavy-use back over a four-month season, but his burial in the first half of the year – behind a hobbling Jamal Lewis(notes) – was a travesty. I’m not saying this conveniently after the fact either; in a few leagues I went out of my way to stash Harrison, then played the waiting game. Unfortunately my patience had long run out by the time Week 15 rolled around.

• Washington’s offensive line has been a joke for the balance of the year, but that doesn’t excuse Jason Campbell(notes) from blame. I’ve watched just about every Campbell snap for the last two seasons and I’m convinced his absolute ceiling as a pro is "adequate quarterback" – and that’s if he gets all the right pieces around him. Sure, he’s got the size and the arm strength and he’s the type of guy who looks great in a 7-on-7 drill, but he’s never developed a shred of awareness in the pocket and that’s a critical skill for any competent NFL quarterback. Campbell’s also very poor at reading defenses and picking up on pre-snap blitz indicators; while his offensive line might set him up to fail, he’s making the situation look as bad as it possibly can look.

• Forget Darren McFadden(notes) ever being a traditional tailback, someone you can hand the ball to 15-20 times a game. He’s a handy receiver and a useful satellite player, that’s the upside here. He’ll never be a franchise guy.

• The Cowboys probably wouldn’t be in the playoffs today had Roy Williams not gotten injured at Denver in Week 4. That paved the way for the Miles Austin(notes) explosion the next week and the rest is history. Of course the Pokes should have been hip to Austin a lot sooner; the team mentions that Austin was nicked up over the summer, but this also looks like a case of a team misjudging its personnel.

• You can have power and the jumbo package at the goal line. I’ll take the spread offense, more weapons, and a quick, decisive back.

• Congratulations on your three touchdowns, Brandon Jackson(notes). Step to the podium and accept your Jerome Harrison Award for this week’s most outstanding performance that helped no one’s fantasy team.

• I concede that it’s crazy to have a Week 17 title game in fantasy if you play in the head-to-head format. But if you’re in a total-points league, by all means you need to use all the games. Figuring out the madness is what separates the winners and losers in this make-believe game.

• Get out while the getting’s good and your wits are still intact, Matt Hasselbeck(notes). It was a nice run while it lasted. It’s all over now.

I hope you won your playoff games (and championships), amigos. If you want to follow me on Twitter, head over here.

For the most part it’s a clean Week 16 as we set up for our championship games. Other than the Colts, every other good team has something to prove or play for. Let’s look at some injuries, some storylines and some other news from Boxing Day.

• Reggie Wayne(notes) is the one star player I want no part of in Week 16. He’s up against shutdown corner Darrelle Revis(notes), the cover ace who’s been just about impossible to beat for the entire season. Wayne also has a sore foot (though he’s listed as probable), and we can’t be sure the Colts will expose Peyton Manning(notes) to a full game (head coach Jim Caldwell has been vague about that all week; I’m guessing Manning goes at least three quarters, but I didn’t rank him in my Top 10 for the week, either).

• It sure looks like the Titans want Chris Johnson to get 2,000 yards rushing (and Marshall Faulk’s(notes) total-yardage record, and maybe Eric Dickerson’s rushing record), doesn’t it? Asked about the 2,000 mark, Jeff Fisher didn’t deny anything after Thursday’s blowout loss to San Diego. "It’s something we pay close attention to as well as [Johnson] does, I’m sure," Fisher conceded. The Titans kept feeding Johnson the ball in the fourth quarter of the blowout loss, clearly looking to give Johnson a chance to hit as many milestones as possible. Tennessee, now out of the playoff race, plays at Seattle next week.

• DeAngelo Williams(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice all week and is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s road tilt with the Giants. Jonathan Stewart(notes) is banged up himself (sore toe and Achilles) and has the questionable tag, but context clues point to him playing. Check back Sunday; at least it’s an early kickoff.

• Michael Turner(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice all week and is very questionable for the Bills Sunday. Given that Turner had early exit’s the last two times he tried to play, there’s no way I’m risking anything with him here. The odds look better for Matt Ryan(notes) (toe, questionable), who took some reps the last two days.

• Brian Westbrook(notes) (post concussion) practiced all week and should be able to play for the Eagles, but he’s a very tricky fantasy play as we have no idea how much work the Eagles will steer his way. I’d look at all other options first. Receiver Jeremy Maclin(notes) (foot) is probable.

• Hakeem Nicks(notes) (hamstring) took some of the reps in Friday’s practice and the Giants appear optimistic here, they’re listing him as probable. New York is playing for its season, so look for Nicks to go. Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (foot/ankle) is also listed as probable, though he was held out of practice.

• Brian Brohm(notes) took most of the first-team reps with the Bills this week and figures to be the starter at Atlanta, though Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) (ankle) did some work Friday. If you’re tied to Terrell Owens(notes) this week, you’d rather see Fitzpatrick under center.

• Percy Harvin(notes) is not on the injury report, so let him loose on the Bears.

• Marc Bulger(notes) was placed on injured reserve, if you wanted to know. Let’s hope he gets out of the game while he’s still got all of his faculties. Steven Jackson (back) didn’t practice all week, his typical MO, and is listed as questionable.

• The fans of Cleveland must be excited after their last two wins – the Browns will actually have a home game on local TV this week (third time this season). Derek Anderson(notes). Charlie Frye(notes). The storylines write themselves.

• Tom Brady(notes) (various) took all the reps Friday and will start against the Jaguars.

• Bruce Gradkowski(notes) (knees) hasn’t ruled out playing in Week 17 against Baltimore, if you’re in a league that requires three quarterbacks per week. As for Oakland’s backfield this week, it’s going to be Michael Bush(notes) and Darren McFadden(notes), while Justin Fargas(notes) (knee) sits out.

• The Ravens should have all receivers on board for their critical game at Pittsburgh, not that guys aren’t nicked up. Mark Clayton(notes) has a sore hamstring, Kelley Washington(notes) is dealing with a tender ankle and Demetrius Williams(notes) has a knee injury.

• Hines Ward(notes) (hamstring), Rashard Mendenhall(notes) (hip) and Mike Wallace(notes) (knee) all had full practices Friday and are listed as probable for Sunday’s critical game against Baltimore. Use them as you normally would.

• Mike Hart(notes) (ankle) took a full workload Friday and will probably be the No. 2 back for the Colts this week. Joseph Addai(notes) is listed as probable; he missed the last two days of practice due to personal reasons. The Colts also have a choice at kicker; Adam Vinatieri(notes) (knee) was able to practice Friday and might play against the Jets. I’d steer clear of Vinatieri and Matt Stover(notes) if possible.

• Larry Fitzgerald(notes) (knee) is listed as probable and should go against St. Louis.

• Antonio Bryant(notes) (groin) had a full day of practice Friday if you need a deep reach at receiver. He’s still listed as questionable, however, as are Michael Clayton(notes) (knee) and Derrick Ward(notes) (knee).

• Braylon Edwards(notes) (knee) had a full practice Friday and is listed as probable.

• Forget about Lance Moore(notes) (ankle) scoring last week, he’s had a setback and won’t play against the Bucs. Reggie Bush(notes) (hamstring) is listed as probable, while Jeremy Shockey(notes) (toe) is questionable. If the Saints hold Shockey out again, consider Dave Thomas a possible sleeper.

• Devin Thomas(notes) (ankle) is listed as doubtful, so look for Malcolm Kelly(notes) to start Sunday night against Dallas.

• Eddie Royal(notes) (neck) has already been ruled out, not that you expected anything here. Brandon Stokley(notes) and Jabar Gaffney(notes) pick up extra snaps at Philly.

• Joe Nedney(notes) (hamstring) wont go for the Niners, which makes Ricky Schmitt(notes) a possible kicker of interest in Week 16. San Francisco should get plenty of scoring chances at home against Detroit.

• Julius Jones(notes) (ribs) is listed as questionable, which perhaps could lead to more work for Justin Forsett(notes) at Green Bay, in theory.

• Austin Collie(notes) figures to get more reps as the Colts are holding Pierre Garcon(notes) (hand) out this week. And forget about Anthony Gonzalez(notes) for 2009, he’s been placed on injured reserve.

• Matt Moore(notes) (shoulder) got back to a full practice Friday, though he’s still listed as questionable. This is probably just John Fox being tricky; we’re expecting Moore to start at the Meadowlands.

———————

Photo courtesy US Presswire

Truth be told, peeps, I’m in a good mood. It’s the holidays. Egg nog. In a few days I get to see Up in the Air. Someone else cooks a tasty meal, I eat it. People buy me presents and stuff. Fantasy Football Championship Week. Less traffic in my neck of the woods. All wonderful things.

And then I peeked at Twitter and there was this #airingofgrievances topic going around, and I guess I had some beefs to get out. Let’s go to the pet peeves, all done with the Tweet rules in mind (140 characters or less):

• Change-diggers and coupon crazies at the checkout. I’ll spot you the 45 cents, okay, just keep it moving.

• Any commercial that suggests you should gift someone a fancy car this holiday, almost on a whim.

• The endless presentation at NBA games. How much noise and flash is enough? Why is every arena an arcade now?

• The forced, cheesy chemistry between Gruden and Jaws.

• NFL analysts who glorify the running game. This isn’t 1977, people. It’s a passing league.

• The 3rd and 4th years of Six Feet Under. Any Cheers episode with Rebecca Howe. Shoveling. Cheapskates at a group dinner.

• Flaky wireless. Anyone who interrupts a nap. Watching the same crummy NFL team in prime time (Redskins 2009, Browns 2008).

• Movie trailers that give away too much detail.

• The ridiculous markup on concessions at events, airports etc. I’m not cheap but I know when I’m being royally screwed.

• Stuart Scott, Chris Berman. Seriously, guys, the shtick expired a long time ago.

• The environmentally-clueless shoppers at the market. Cart to the left or to the right, please. Not down the middle.

• Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, together or separately.

• The guy who waited 10 minutes in line but still doesn’t know what he wants. Lottery zealots. Applebee’s (even free, nah).

• The DirecTV monopoly on Sunday Ticket. The spotty reception my since-ditched dish used to get. Perky morning people.

• Anyone who doesn’t realize that The Knack’s best song (by far) is "Good Girls Don’t."

• Jimmy Football. I’m against violence, but I’d make an exception here.

• Rick Reilly. He was good in the 80s and early 90s, honest. He’s the postmaster general now.

• The media slurping of Cal Ripken. Great player, but he was just as selfish and egocentric as several other targets.

• The size of goaltending equipment in ice hockey. Forget making a save, just stand there and let the puck hit you

• Joe Morgan. There can be no defense of the man. Gavel.

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• Comcast’s crummy amount of HD channels. Once you go HD, there’s no going back – everything else is a Zapruder film.

• Football know-it-alls that come out Monday morning. If you’ve got a strong opinion, share it before the game.

• Laugh tracks. I can figure out what’s funny, thanks. And that’s enough rantage from me, for now. Have a happy and safe holiday, peeps. I’ll be back later today with actual football content, if that’s your thing.

What’s on your rant list? Keep it clean, one of my crazy aunts might be reading over my shoulder.

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Photo via US Presswire

The skill of fantasy football is making the playoffs. The luck of fantasy football is what happens to you once you’re in the dance.

I spent plenty of time debating my Week 15 plays for the FF Semifinals. I’m not going to boast of any of the proper calls, today it’s all about ruing the decisions gone wrong. Let’s look at some of the red ink:

I had all week to ruminate about Maurice Morris(notes), Leonard Weaver(notes) and Kevin Faulk(notes) in the Friends & Family League. Called that wrong, it probably wasn’t going to matter up against Scott Engel’s juggernaut. That said, had I kept Chris Chambers(notes) in the lineup too, maybe we’ve got a game (I’ve still got Devin Thomas(notes), for whatever that means).

Had a gut feeling of Robert Meachem(notes) over Chad Ochocinco(notes), go where the points are (plus Carson Palmer(notes) had me worried off his stink bomb in Minnesota). Fortunately this miscue isn’t going to cost me, that team has already advanced to the finals.

I’ve had a pretty good year with fantasy defenses but I didn’t get a bonanza payoff from the Houston Texans (11 default points) or Seattle Seahawks (two points) this week. And so it goes.

Jeremy Shockey’s(notes) zero might cost me one game. It’s a deep league where we start two tight ends per week. I was considering a free-agent move but there wasn’t a lot out there. I got home Saturday night about 10 minutes into the action – just in time to see that Shockey was on the sidelines, in street clothes. Thanks for nothing, J-Shock.

I’m positive I steered one person away from Joshua Cribbs(notes). I can’t remember the other player in the question. Trust me when I say I’d rather be right in the advice I give out than in the advice I take myself.

Arian Foster(notes)? Didn’t have him on a single team. You must have me confused with someone else.

Looking for Monday Brunch in this space? For one week only, it’s in a different spot –join me over here. Now let’s hear about your Week 15 decisions gone awry. And if you want more of my off-the-cuff observations, follow me on Twitter.

It’s playoff time, settle in. Friday’s practice reports are the most important ones of the week.

• Larry Fitzgerald(notes) (knee) increased his workload Friday and insists he’ll be a go at Detroit, though he’s officially listed as questionable. Barring a last-second setback, there’s no reason not to use him this week.

• Calvin Johnson(notes) (knee) was able to practice Friday, though he’s still considered a game-time decision. It’s an early start, so you’ll know his status around noon eastern on Sunday. Johnson’s passes will be coming from Daunte Culpepper(notes), for what it’s worth; Matthew Stafford(notes) (shoulder) isn’t going to play.

• The Vikings got a full practice from Bernard Berrian(notes) (hamstring) and Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) (ribs/foot), so we can relax with those guys. Percy Harvin(notes) (migraines) had a limited practice but the team seems encouraged by his chances to play (Harvin sounds encouraged too, though he didn‘t offer any guarantees). Things look less optimistic for Sidney Rice(notes) (illness), who didn’t get on the practice field the past two days. Minnesota has the Sunday night game at Carolina, just to make this as complicated as possible.

• Vince Young(notes) (hamstring) practiced in full Friday but you know how Jeff Fisher rolls, he still listed Young as questionable for Sunday’s game with Miami. We’ll have to wait until game time for the call on Young, but at least the Titans and Dolphins have an early start.

• Steven Jackson (flu/back) missed practice Friday and is listed as questionable. It’s possible that Jackson is one of the Rams dealing with the H1N1 virus, though that has not been confirmed. Brandon Gibson(notes) (flu-like symptoms) has already been ruled out, while quarterback Kyle Boller(notes) (flu-like symptoms) is questionable. Add all of this up and it sounds like a good time to give the Texans defense a shot for fantasy purposes.

• Correll Buckhalter(notes) (ankle) didn’t practice Friday and is considered doubtful for the Raiders this weekend. The setup looks very appetizing for Knowshon Moreno(notes), in line for plenty of work against that sieve-like Oakland rushing defense.

• Pierre Thomas(notes) (hip) is listed as probable for the Saturday nighter with Dallas. Look for him to take his normal role, which will probably be 10-15 touches less than what fantasy owners think he deserves. Mike Bell(notes) (knee) is also listed as probable, while Jeremy Shockey(notes) (toe) is questionable. I’d steer away from Shockey, who’s been invisible for about two months now.

• Derrick Mason(notes) (finger) is listed as probable and should be on the field against the Bears. Otherwise, it’s a mixed bag for the Baltimore receivers, with Mark Clayton(notes) (knee) doubtful and Kelley Washington(notes) (ankle) questionable. There’s also weather concerns here – the snow forecast is serious enough that the start of the game has been pushed back three hours – and you get the sense that the Ravens will be focusing on the ground game this week. We’ll see what Mother Nature offers us Sunday morning.

• Matt Ryan(notes) (toe) and Michael Turner(notes) (ankle) both had another limited day of practice and remain questionable for the road game at the Jets. I can’t see how anyone would risk their fantasy life on these guys this week; the New York pass defense is excellent and even if Turner gets on the field, who knows if he’ll finish? Roddy White(notes) (knee) is listed as probable but it’s hard to like his chances against cover ace Darrelle Revis(notes).

• Frank Gore(notes) (toe) is probable for the Eagles. It’s not a tasty matchup but you’re probably going to start him anyway, barring an embarrassment of riches in your backfield.

• The Eagles have already ruled out Jeremy Maclin(notes) and Brian Westbrook(notes), so be ready with other options. Reggie Brown(notes) will pick up the start for Maclin but the Eagles will also give reps to Jason Avant(notes) and Kevin Curtis; in the backfield, it’s going to be the LeSean McCoy(notes) and Leonard Weaver(notes) show. Also give the Philly weather a look before you make your final calls Sunday morning; there’s snow and wind in the forecast.

• Mark Sanchez(notes) (knee) did enough in practice to earn the Week 15 start against Atlanta. It doesn’t mean you want to dial him up, but I suppose it helps Braylon Edwards(notes) and Jerricho Cotchery(notes) a little bit.

• Jonathan Stewart(notes) (toe) had a full practice and is listed as probable for Sunday night.

• Nate Washington(notes) (ankle) probably wasn’t your Week 15 savior to begin with, but you can just about cross him off your list now. He’s listed as doubtful for Sunday. Perhaps that will skim some extra attempts to surging rookie Kenny Britt(notes).

• There’s been a positive Dwayne Bowe(notes) buzz in Kansas City this week but the team has yet to confirm that he’ll start (or even be active) against the Browns. Unfortunately all we can do is wait and see what Todd Haley gives us Sunday around noon.

• Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (ankle/foot) was held out of another practice, though the Giants are still expecting him to go Monday at Washington. Hopefully you have safer options. As for receiver Mario Manningham(notes) (illness), he worked Friday and is no longer on the injury report.

• It was a limited practice week for Joshua Cribbs(notes) (ankle) but nonetheless the Browns are listing him as probable. Use him as you normally would.

• Tim Hightower(notes) (thumb) is listed as probable and didn’t miss any practice time. He’s only had eight carries the last two weeks, in part because of two lost fumbles.

• Benjamin Watson(notes) (knee) is listed as questionable for the Buffalo game, a shame given how he carved up these safeties in the previous meeting. And so it goes. Sam Aiken(notes) (shoulder) is also questionable.

When the Red Wings signed Todd Bertuzzi(notes) to a one-year contract back in August I didn’t make too much of it. Just a recycled veteran on his last legs, right? When Bertuzzi won the Nov. 28 game at St. Louis with a nifty shootout score, it didn’t mean a lot to me. There’s no real fantasy value to be had here, right?

Time to forget all those preconceived notions, gamers. The Todd Bertuzzi Rejuvenation Tour is in full effect and you’re going to want in on this.

Bertuzzi has been Detroit’s best forward for three weeks now, plain and simple. He’s forced his way onto the first line with Pavel Datsyuk(notes) and Tomas Holmstrom(notes) and as unreal as it sounds, Bertuzzi is starting to play like he did in the Vancouver days. He’s pushing people around, dominating the corners, getting plenty of shots on goal and lighting the lamp plenty.

Bertuzzi scored his ninth goal of the year in Thursday’s 3-0 victory over Tampa Bay, giving him five goals over his last four games. He had the game-tying goal and the overtime winner against Anaheim a week ago, then followed up with another overtime winner at Nashville the following night. He’s got 17 shots in his last three games and 10 penalty minutes in his last six starts. What else could a fantasy owner want? But wait, there’s more.

Bertuzzi offers dual-wing eligibility in the Yahoo! Game, so you can dial him up as a left wing or a right wing. Sounds almost too good to be true, doesn’t it? And he’s available in 84 percent of the Y! leagues out there. Time to work on that ownership number, peeps. This comeback is very real.

Detroit’s starting to feel good about its hockey team again, too – Jimmy Howard(notes) was superb in Thursday’s shutout (30 saves) and the Red Wings have won four in a row. Alas, the news isn’t all rosy; Henrik Zetterberg(notes) was forced out of Thursday’s game with an upper-body injury (courtesy of a crunching Mattias Ohlund(notes) hit) and might be out of action for a while. And so it goes.

Playoffs are here, guys are hurt, practices are done. Let’s go over the news.

• Calvin Johnson(notes) (knee) and Matthew Stafford(notes) (shoulder) were both held out of Thursday’s practice. You can pretty much eliminate Stafford right now – warm up, Daunte Culpepper(notes) – but Johnson has a shot to play against the Cardinals if he can show something Friday. The frustrating season for Megatron owners continues.

• Larry Fitzgerald(notes) (knee) did a little more work in Thursday’s practice but he’s far from a sure thing for Sunday’s match at Detroit. We should know a lot more about Fitzgerald after the Cardinals have the key Friday workout.

• Brian Westbrook(notes) (post concussion) was limited in Thursday’s practice and the context clues around Eagles camp point to him sitting out another week. We’ll see what Andy Reid offers to us Friday. In the meantime, LeSean McCoy(notes) is a reasonable play Sunday (even against a surging San Francisco defense) and Leonard Weaver(notes) isn’t the worst reach play in the world (he’s got 189 total yards over the last three weeks, and his touch count could be heading up).

• Matt Ryan(notes) (toe) and Michael Turner(notes) (ankle) both got back on the practice field Thursday in what Mike Smith(notes) termed an "extremely limited" fashion. I don’t see any reason to wait around for Ryan’s status this week – not against the Jets pass defense – and I’d only look to Turner in Week 15 if I were completely sunk at the position.

• The Vikings have a slew of receiver injuries: Bernard Berrian(notes) (ankle) had another limited day, while Sidney Rice(notes) (illness) and Percy Harvin(notes) (migraines) didn’t practice at all. We’ll pay close attention to their Friday practice.

• Hines Ward(notes) (hamstring) had a full day with the Steelers and should be in line for a full game against Green Bay.

• Vince Young(notes) (hamstring) and Kerry Collins(notes) both took reps at Tennessee’s workout Thursday. "I thought [Young] moved pretty well," Jeff Fisher told the Nashville Tennessean.

• Roddy White(notes) (knee) took all the reps Thursday and looks fine to start against the Jets. But from a fantasy perspective, you can’t be happy to see shutdown ace Darrelle Revis(notes) waiting for him on the other side.

• Josh Cribbs (ankle) has been limited in practice this week and is no sure thing to go at Kansas City. If he has an encouraging session Friday, he makes for an interesting Hail Mary reach in Week 15.

• Brent Celek(notes) (back/thumb) was limited at practice Thursday. He’s been playing through these nicks for a while.

• Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (foot/ankles) was held out of Thursday’s work but he’s got time on his side given that the Giants play Monday night in Washington. He’s expected to play. Mario Manningham(notes) (illness) was also held out Thursday.

• Aaron Brown (shoulder) had a limited practice with the Lions Thursday. If you’re chasing for production in this backfield, I’d look to Maurice Morris(notes) first. Granted, this is for the desperados in the crowd.

• Jeremy Shockey(notes) (toe) did some work at Thursday’s practice after sitting out the previous day. He’s been a dud over his last six games, with a measly 17 catches for 193 yards over that span (with no touchdowns).

• Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) (foot/ribs) had a limited day Thursday but no one seems to be concerned yet about him sitting in Week 15. That said, keep in mind the Vikings play Sunday night at Carolina, so you might want to stash an alternate tight end on the bench now (Fred Davis(notes) or Kevin Boss(notes) waiting in the Monday game would do nicely, if it’s available to you; heck, you might want to play Davis over Shiancoe anyway).

• Derrick Mason(notes) (finger) skipped some of the reps Thursday but he’s still expected to play against the Bears. Unless the news is ominous Friday, I’d use him. The Ravens certainly need Mason in this spot; Mark Clayton(notes) (hamstring) and Kelley Washington(notes) (ankle) were both held out of Thursday’s practice.

• Mark Sanchez(notes) (knee) took three-quarters of the Thursday reps and has a good chance to start against the Falcons, not that you want your playoff life to be tied to the Jets passing game. I suppose Braylon Edwards(notes) and Jerricho Cotchery(notes) get a mild upgrade if Sanchez can go, but it’s nothing substantial.

• Devin Hester(notes) (calf) was held out of Thursday’s practice, as expected. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7 and I can’t see why anyone would risk their playoff life on him at Baltimore.

• Tom Brady(notes) (various) and Randy Moss(notes) were both back at practice Thursday, if you wanted to know. It’s hard to trust the Patriots passing game this week from a fantasy perspective, however; Brady doesn’t seem healthy, Moss has been in a funk and Buffalo’s defense practically begs opponents to run the ball as much as possible. Also pay attention to the forecast here; the Buffalo area is expecting snow on Monday but you never know with upstate New York in December.

• Jake Delhomme(notes) (finger) missed another practice so it looks like the Matt Moore(notes) show again this week. Good luck with that against the Vikings defense.

• A swine flu outbreak caused the Rams to cancel their entire practice Thursday. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo said "five or six" of his players are dealing with the bug, but he didn’t name any names.

• Terrell Owens(notes) is dealing with an undisclosed illness and didn’t work Thursday.

• Zach Miller (post concussion) is unlikely to play this week and it won’t be a shock if he’s done for the year.