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  • Why Tune In To The Thursday Night DROIDcast? Let Me Tell You…

    I'm the tall one, Matts the short one.

    “Oh Scotty,” you say… “why do you harass us constantly about tuning into the AndroidGuys Thursday Night DROIDcast every week?” My response is pretty simple; “because we have a great time and we give away free stuff.”

    What more could you possibly want? Oh, you want news? Check. A rotating panel of interesting guests? Check. What about special guests from the Android community? Ya, we have that too. The only reason why you wouldn’t tune into the AndroidGuys Thursday Night DROIDcast would be if you were in the hospital in a coma. And even then hopefully your family would bring a laptop into your room and play the DROIDcast live (some say listening to my voice has medicinal value… I dunno).

    So, have you gotten the point? Let me share with you what’s going on this week:

    • The AndroidGals are joining me and Matt on our panel. Hear a female’s perspective on our topics!
    • Latest AdMob numbers and what they mean.
    • No Nexus One for Verizon, Google tells us to get an Incredible.
    • Sirius/XM coming to Android?
    • Android Market hits 50,000 apps.
    • Canadian News with Matthew Patience.

    So why wouldn’t you tune in? There’s no reason not to! You will get the best experience by listening live, just ask any of the dozens of people that got Swype beta invites from last weeks special guest Mike McSherry, CEO of Swype Inc.

    Since we’ll have the AndroidGals on the panel tomorrow, there’s a very very good chance that we will be giving away some AndroidGals shirts and decals courtesy of the dudes at AndroidSwag.com!

    This Thursday,  April 29th, 7PM Pacific/10PM Eastern. Be there!

    Might We Suggest…


  • Warner Bros. Acquires Turbine, Athenahealth Taps IBM, Alkermes Reveals Diabetes Drug Royalty, & More Boston-Area Deals News

    Erin Kutz wrote:

    News of financings, partnerships, royalties, and acquisitions among New England’s video game, transportation, biotech, and energy companies have kept us buzzing in the last week.

    Westwood, MA-based online games maker Turbine was purchased by the Home Entertainment Group of Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment, a unit of Time Warner (NYSE: TWX). Turbine produces the massively multiplayer online game franchise Lord of the Rings Online, based on the books by J.R.R. Tolkien. Time Warner didn’t disclose the terms of the deal, but a source in a Boston Globe story pegged the transaction at $160 million, which would represent a modest return for Turbine investors, who have put slightly more than $100 million into the 16-year-old company.

    Zipcar, the Cambridge, MA-based car-sharing service, announced it had acquired Streetcar, a U.K.-based company with a similar business model. The terms of the deal weren’t disclosed, but Zipcar said it brought the companies’ combined memberships to more than 400,000 and gives it the opportunity to further expand in Europe.

    Qualtré, a Marlborough, MA, maker of motion sensors for consumer electronics, announced it closed an $8 million Series B round of funding, which included contributions from Matrix Partners and Pilot House Ventures. The money brings the company’s total funding pot to $13 million, and will go to operations, sales, and development of its products, which have applications in cellular handsets, navigation devices, and gaming controllers.

    —France-based bioMérieux shelled out $5 million for an equity stake in Cambridge-based genomics analysis company Knome, as part of a partnership deal in which it will use Knome’s technology to develop diagnostics. BioMérieux appointed its CEO Stéphane Bancel as a director on the Knome board as part of the deal.

    —I rounded up the top 10 largest venture deals inked in the first three months of 2010, with data from Dow Jones VentureSource, CB Insights, and the MoneyTree Report. Healthcare companies took seven of the 10 top slots, with the biggest transaction going to Andover, MA-based TransMedics at $36 million.

    —Pluromed, a Woburn, MA-based maker of medical devices designed to stop bleeding during surgery, raised $1.1 million of a planned $3.9 million equity offering. Last year the company received a $500,000 loan as part of a Massachusetts initiative to further the life sciences industry in the state.

    —Lebanon, NH-based Mascoma, a company developing methods for converting wood fiber and other non-edible plant material into ethanol, has raised $3.4 million of a planned $10 million round of convertible debt, an SEC filing showed. The company received a $15 million grant from the Michigan Economic Development Corporation in June 2008 to build an ethanol plant in Kinross, in Chippewa County, and the state later pledged another $8.5 million toward the site. The new funding, which came from …Next Page »







  • Cricket, Lies, and….Content Management

    They say nothing unites us Indians more than Cricket. Mash that up with Bollywood, big money, politics, as well as sleaze, and you get the multi-billion dollar Indian Premier League (IPL)

  • As Murdoch Puts Times Online Behind A Paywall, Competitors Happily Plan To Stay Free

    As Rupert Murdoch is getting ready to put paywalls on two of his UK publications, The Times of London and The Sunday Times, his competitors are remaining adamantly free online. The Guardian, for example, has been a loud and proud supporter of free content, and now the Daily Mail Online is standing by its free online site by noting:


    “A pay-wall MIGHT make a little money — we will make a lot.”

    The management of the paper explained that people don’t pay for news — they’ve paid for the convenience of paper, but that online news will likely remain free — and that they’re big enough to make advertising pay well. In fact, it seems likely that if Murdoch locks up his content behind a paywall, that will only drive more readers to sites like The Daily Mail and The Guardian and boost their ad revenue…

    Permalink | Comments | Email This Story





  • Math Today, Magic Tomorrow

    Here at Casey Research, we eagerly awaited the release of quarterly reports from the companies in our favorite sector. Why? The gold price was substantially higher last quarter than during the comparable meltdown quarter of 2008, so we were anxious to find out if it would lead to a spike in profits.

    Gold and silver producers posted substantially higher net profits, and yes, much of it due to higher metals prices. But amazing to many, higher profits did not lead to higher – or at least not significantly higher – stock prices.

    While most saw their stocks rise the day of their respective announcements, some actually fell if gold or the broader markets were down on the day. And they certainly didn’t jump like you might expect when “soaring profits” splashed the headlines of their press releases.

    What gives?

    We have some answers straight ahead, including a big fat clue as to when gold stocks will take off and give us those “magical” price levels we think are coming.

    Gold Stocks Are Still Going to Take Off, Right?

    We think that at some point the public is destined to participate in precious metals stocks, and when they do, we’ll see volumes jump and share prices take off.

    But for now, gold stocks are playing follow the leader…

    Gold Follows the Broader Market

    ..rising and declining in tandem with the S&P since last April. So, until gold stocks separate from the overall market, we should anticipate they’ll tag along if the markets slide. And we think the path of least resistance for the stock market is down, not up, so caution is warranted about going overweight our stocks.

    But just as we showed with gold last month, gold stocks will similarly propel higher when the general public crowds in, regardless of what the markets are doing. Here’s what gold stocks did in the last great bull market, compared to the S&P.

    Gold Stocks in the 1970s

    As measured by the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (a good substitute for the HUI that didn’t exist), gold stocks rose 652% during the 1970s (through January 1980), while the S&P returned a wimpy 22%. The action in the ’70s was definitely in gold and gold stocks, despite two recessions that decade, and we think a repeat is in the cards.

    When the masses finally wake up, it’s highly probable our returns will match the chart above or the late ’90s surge in Internet stocks.

    Is Now a Good Time to Buy?

    As investors, our goal is to get positioned in the best stocks at the best price. And buying low assures us of more profit when we eventually sell. So, are gold stocks “low” right now?

    We have a couple clues to help answer that, with gold itself offering the most important hint. Let’s compare how gold stocks are performing in relation to gold to see if they’re overvalued or undervalued or somewhere in between.

    Gold Stocks Since 2008

    The chart shows that gold stocks, as measured by the HUI Gold Bugs Index, outperformed gold until 2008. Since then, gold stocks have underperformed gold by a fairly wide margin.

    This gold-stock-to-gold ratio tells us that in our bull market, gold stocks are currently undervalued relative to the gold price. This doesn’t mean they can’t get cheaper, of course, but it does signal they represent good value and that compared to their underlying asset, there’s lots of room to the upside.

    So, if you have a long-term perspective and the patience to wait until gold stocks begin outperforming gold again, today’s prices are good prices.

    So, do we buy? The answer depends on your current exposure to gold stocks, how much gold and cash you have, and your outlook. If you own equities exceeding one-third of your total investable assets, we wouldn’t rush to buy. If you have limited (or no) exposure and a patient mindset to see you through until the big payday, even enduring temporarily lower prices along the way, then buying some now is probably a good move. If you have very little in the way of savings and gold, we’d put money there first before committing a big chunk to gold stocks.

    Basically, the larger your stable of gold stocks, the more stubborn you should be about price. And we wouldn’t go “all in” just yet. Your risk in loading up now is if markets were to take another nosedive. But if you’re light on stocks, adding some of the best of the best at this time should work out well, as long as you don’t panic into selling on general market weakness.

    Just Tell Me When!

    The #1 indicator that will tell us when gold stocks will take off has nothing to do with charts and is something you can monitor yourself: it will be when your neighbors and co-workers begin to express curiosity. You obviously want to be invested before them, but that’s when things will start to get exciting.

    So when might “gold fever” strike your neighbor? History holds the best clue:

    In the 1970’s bull market, gold stocks began their big ascent when the gold price hit about $450/ounce. Adjusted for inflation, that would equal roughly $1,340 today. So, when we see gold rise decisively above $1,300 and stay there, that just might be the trigger that spurs the interest of the masses in gold stocks. That’s not a prediction, but it does give us an idea of what to look for.

    Casey Research chief economist Bud Conrad was right when he called for gold breaking through the $1,150 barrier in 2009 – and now he’s calling for gold to break over $1,450 by year’s end. Weighing in as well, Doug Casey himself sees precious metals as the only asset class worth buying now, and gold stocks as being the best way to add speculative leverage to those investments.

    Exciting? You bet. We’re convinced that, sooner or later, higher prices are ahead for the best gold- and silver-producing companies, along with the “magical” levels that can happen in a mania. So, while we encourage caution, we also encourage selective participation so you don’t get left behind. Waiting for the “perfect” time to buy is an exercise in self-deception; nobody can time the market.

    Let’s be honest: no one can guarantee when or if a gold mania will happen. But all of our research points to higher prices for gold (and silver), so we remain confident we’re in the right sector. And we can make money before the mania gets here.

    Jeff Clark
    for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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  • The Republican Counter-Proposal vs. the Dodd Bill

    Tonight, the Republicans released a counter-proposal to Sen. Chris Dodd’s (D-Conn.) financial regulatory reform package. Here is a comparative analysis of the two proposals.

    First, the similarities. There are many. Both bills create systemic regulators to keep watch over risky firms. Both ensure that taxpayers will never be on the hook for Wall Street bailouts again by creating some form of resolution authority – Democrats by taxing banks for a $50 billion liquidation fund, to be used in the event that a systemically important bank needs to be shut down; Republicans by requiring that the Federal Deposit Insurance Co. get back any government money spent in the process of liquidation. Both require hedge funds to answer to a regulator: in the Democrats’ case, the Securities and Exchange Commission; in the Republicans’, a new oversight committee. Both vaguely hold that credit ratings agencies will receive bolstered oversight, but in both cases, the ratings agencies’ fundamental business models do not change. Both provide weak proposals to institute some form of the Volcker Rule, banning proprietary trading at many banking institutions. Both improve Fed oversight, though without a strong requirement for an audit of the Fed’s books. Both create a powerful consumer financial protection agency with rulemaking authority, though only in the Democrats’ version would the CFPA have the ability to oversee firms like payday lenders. Both make derivatives a regulated product, Democrats by requiring that derivatives used by financial firms to speculate go through clearinghouses; Republicans by giving a regulator authority to say if they should. Both make the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York a presidential appointee.

    The Republican proposal deals with two things that the Democratic proposal does not touch. First, the Republicans take on the government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — bailed out during the collapse of the housing bubble. Democratic staffers say that figuring out how to handle the GSEs and re-regulating the trillion-dollar market in government-backed mortgage finance requires its own bill. They have just started researching what they want to accomplish and how best to achieve it. Republicans, in fewer than 400 words, take the massive market on. They create a special regulator and indicate that no further taxpayer money should be at risk.

    Second, the Republicans create new loan-underwriting standards, saying, “Anyone who securitizes a residential mortgage loan that does not meet new statutory minimum underwriting rules promulgated by federal prudential banking regulator will be required to retain at least a 5 percent economic interest in the trust.”

    The Dems’ bill more qualitatively gives more oversight to the Fed to make discretionary decisions, such as to require big banks or firms to post more collateral. The Republicans’ bill does not give more oversight to the Fed — which many Republicans believe overstepped significantly in the last crisis, as noted in the proposal — and does not indicate when or whether the government would force banks to keep more cash.

    The Republicans’ consumer financial oversights are significantly weaker than the Democrats’. The Republican-suggested Council for Consumer Financial Protection — the analog of the Democrats’ CFPA — includes the head of the Federal Reserve, the comptroller of the currency, the head of the FDIC and three “consumer protection experts.” It does not say how those consumer protection experts will be picked. Nor does the Republican proposal specify how its CFPA would be funded or where it would be housed. (Controversially, Dodd’s bill places it in the Fed.) And the Republicans’ version of the CFPA does not have as broad oversight or as strong and clear a mandate.

    Here are side-by-side explanations of the most important provisions in the two bills:

    Resolution Authority

    Dodd: The bill requires the Treasury Department, FDIC and Federal Reserve to agree to liquidate a firm. Three bankruptcy judges must agree with their decision. The biggest financial firms will fund a $50 billion pool that the government will use in the process of liquidation to ensure taxpayers do not foot the bill. The bill allows the FDIC to borrow from Treasury in the process, but only if it “expects to be repaid from the assets of the company being liquidated.” The assets are sold off at the government’s discretion. Taxpayers get repaid first. The firm’s management is fired and shareholders are wiped out.

    Republican: Like in the Democrats’ bill, the Treasury Department, FDIC and Federal Reserve together determine that a firm needs liquidation to start the process. The Treasury secretary consults with the president to ensure that he or she agrees that breaking up and selling off the company will help preserve financial stability. Then, the Treasury secretary petitions the D.C. courts to authorize the FDIC as the company’s receiver before the company is liquidated by the government. The proposal notes: “The FDIC would have to recoup from creditors any amounts that a creditor had received in excess of what it would have received in bankruptcy. This gives the FDIC the flexibility to advance funds to creditors to prevent or mitigate a systemic crisis, but then ensures the FDIC is not bailing out creditors.”

    The Federal Reserve

    Dodd: The bill allows for the Federal Reserve’s lender-of-last-resort authority and expands Federal Reserve oversight of big banks and other financial firms. It provides for stronger congressional oversight of the Fed itself and makes the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York a presidential appointee.

    Republican: The bill also makes the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York a presidential appointee. It does not expand the institution’s regulatory powers. If anything, it limits them, adding an oversight measure so that the Fed and Treasury determine “where and when emergency actions…constitute credit channeling” so that the Fed cannot pick “winners and losers” in the event of the financial crisis. It is unclear how it limits which banks the Fed supervises.

    Consumer Financial Protection Agency

    Dodd: The bill creates a Consumer Financial Protection agency paid for by the Fed. It has oversight over banks with assets more than $10 billion, big shadow-banking institutions, any mortgage-related businesses, credit card companies, and payday lenders. It can impose consumer-protection measures.

    Republican: The bill creates a Council for Consumer Financial Protection comprising three independent experts, the head of the FDIC, the Comptroller of the currency and the head of the Fed. It has “primary supervision and enforcement authority” over large banks, non-bank mortgage-originators and other entities. Small community banks and thrifts remain overseen by their primary prudential regulators.

    Systemic Regulation

    Dodd: The bill creates a new Financial Stability Oversight Council to “focus on identifying, monitoring and addressing systemic risks posed by large, complex financial firms as well as products and activities that spread risk across firms. It will make recommendations to regulators for increasingly stringent rules on companies that grow large and complex enough to pose a threat to the financial stability of the United States.” The Fed can force big companies to raise new capital.

    Republican: The proposal says the new Council for Consumer Financial Protection will have systemic oversight. It also says that there were “failings of regulation and oversight by the Federal Reserve in the recent crisis” and therefore it creates a director of regulation at the Fed, a presidential appointee. He or she is “required to testify annually and report to Congress and the public concerning Fed supervision and regulation of” big and systemically important financial institutions and risks.

  • Santa Maria, Madre de Dios, Ruege Para Nosotros

    Sunday morning, the Padre gave a mass at the little chapel next to the school. Then, he came over and blessed the new backhoe:

    “Lord, we ask that this machine may help make the farm more productive and may make it a better place to live and work for all who live here.”

    “Amen,” we said.

    Local priests are in short supply. Ours is an intelligent man with thinning hair, who came from Spain to minister to the poor of the Andes. He and another priest take care of 22 different churches, covering a region bigger than the state of Rhode Island. Once he left on Sunday, he could not come back to bury Jorge’s father. So, blessing of the clergy was performed in Salta, before the journey to our ranch began.

    Javier caught on quickly. After a few minutes of training, he could operate the backhoe better than your editor. There are some things economists can do well. At least, in theory. In practice, we’ve never found anything.

    Backhoes were not designed for intellectuals. By the time we have calculated the angle of attack, a good operator has already dug two holes. Maybe most things in life are like that – better done by instinct than by calculation.

    Javier turned off the motor and came down from the cab. We were giving him instructions in maintenance – ‘graselo cada dia, sin excepcion’ – then we heard the deep, full-throated noise. It was an old Chevy truck coming up the hill.

    “That must be Jorge, with his father’s body,” we said to Javier.

    “Mi abuelo [my grandfather],” said Javier. The cowboy’s face was as hard and immobile as the stone mountains behind him. It was not an unfriendly face. But it was not a face you’d like to see in a bar fight, either, at least not unless he was on your side.

    The old truck usually ran on bottled gas. But it could only get gasoline at the station in Molinos…so it switched back to gasoline, which caused it to run poorly, occasionally coughing and sputtering.

    Still, it made the trip from Molinos in an hour and a half, across the desert to our ranch, with the coffin of Jorge’s father in the back. Along with it came four other dusty pickups – each one carrying more of Jorge’s family. Brothers and sisters, nieces and nephews…all came back to the cradle of the family itself, where Agostin, father of Jorge, Evo, Rosa, Candelaria, Josephina and Fermina, was born.

    The body already lay in the chapel, in front of the altar, when we got there. Candles were lit on all sides. A few people kneeled, praying in their pews. Others milled around outside.

    We shook hands with the men standing outside our church. The women inclined their cheeks upward for a kiss. All were shy. Many of them had never had met a real economist; probably, they never will. Then, we went inside, took off our hat, stood before the closed casket and made the sign of the cross on our chest and went back outside to await events.

    Soon after, Jorge’s wife took charge.

    “In the name of the Father, the Son, and the Holy Ghost,” she began. “We are gathered here to say goodbye to Agostin… He has taken a road we all must take. Santa Maria, Mother of God, Pray for Us.”

    “Santa Maria, Madre de Dios, Ruege Para Nosotros….

    “Santa Maria, Madre de Dios, Ruege Para Nosotros…

    “Santa Maria, Madre de Dios, Ruege Para Nosotros…”

    Once the litany began, it seemed like it would never stop. Maria called upon the saints, by name…and asked for the help of the angels and Heaven itself…counting out the beads of her rosary…reaching out to the Kingdom of God and imploring its denizens to welcome her father-in- law, to take him up into their celestial hotel and make him feel like he belonged there. As for those left still alive, she asked for help for them too. Would God give them a little help…a raincheck…she asked…a reservation for the future, for the time when we too must join Agostin…and all the saints…in our eternal home.

    When the litany ended, the choir assembled. Gustavo led it in a death chant…a simple tune sung over and over, with old women keening in the background. The effect was unlike any church music we had ever heard. There were no musical instruments in the chapel, but the keening filled the air, like an organ or bagpipes. It was soothing and melodic…but deeply sad…

    “It’s the music the Indians sang when they came down from the mountains,” Maria explained. “It’s called a baguala.”

    Each person in the church then stood in line to take communion…and touched the casket on his way back to his seat, some merely placing their hands on it for a moment, others making the sign of the cross.

    When the last of the Eucharist celebrants had sat down, Jorge’s wife blew out the candles, while Jorge, his brothers and nephews moved up to the front of the church. They picked up the coffin, and put it back onto the pick-up truck. The rest of us got in our trucks too, in order to follow the procession out to the graveyard.

    Across an arroyo from the chapel is an old adobe house. It was the house where Agostin lived as a child and where Javier lives now. The procession drove to the house; the casket was taken out of the back of the pickup and carried around the house. Then, it went back in the truck for the trip to its final resting place.

    About a half mile from the house, out on the range by itself, is the graveyard. It is a giant square, surrounded by stone walls, about 6 feet high, so remote that life above ground is almost as peaceful as it is below it.

    Here, in the high plains of Boot Hill, some 50 or so bodies lie unmolested by the living. Here, the dead are on their own…save when someone comes to join them. They enjoy their sleep without interruption – no lawnmowers and no Internet signal.

    Some graves are marked by piles of rocks. Others by concrete tombstones. Still others only have a wooden cross to mark the spot. Some of the dead appear to have been forgotten completely. Other gravesites are garnished with a few faded, plastic flowers.

    Off to the right, as we entered, was a pile of pick axes and a little farther was a hole, much deeper than we expected. It must have been hard work digging it.

    “I guess the next one will be dug with the backhoe,” we said to Calvert.

    “I don’t know. They might rather dig those graves by hand.”

    Jorge’s wife spread a blanket on the bottom of the grave while Jorge and his kin attached ropes to the coffin. They then set the coffin on the top of the hole supported by a couple metal bars across the opening.

    Again, mourners began their lament, while one by one the rest of the group, beginning with the closest family, approached the casket. Each one dipped a sprig of green leaves into holy water and made the sign of the cross on top of the casket.

    Now that the body was closer to the grave, the keening grew louder and eyes grew redder. Some cried. Some merely looked blank and sorrowful.

    When everyone had paid his last respects, a bent grey felt hat, the kind an old ranch hand might wear, was put on top of the coffin. Jorge and his brother pulled out the metal bars while other relatives held the ropes. Then, the body was lowered into the hole. When it came to rest on the bottom, they pulled up the ropes.

    The wailing and keening continued. The relatives each took a hand of dirt and threw it on the coffin. Then, one of Jorge’s sisters threw on some of his clothes. Another tossed a pack of cigarettes into the grave.

    When the symbolic burial was over, three of the ranch hands, Natalio, Omar, and Juan, picked up shovels and began seriously filling the hole with dirt. A cloud of dust formed around them. Juan smoked a cigarette as he worked.

    Soon, the grieving friends and family were beginning to drift away. Bottles of coca cola and orange soda came out. Anna, Juan’s son, came over and offered us a cup of coke. Out of the corner of our eye, we noticed Javier, the toughest hombre in the Calchaqui Valley, wiping away a tear.

    Santa Maria, Madre de Dios, Ruege Para Nosostros.

    Regards,

    Bill Bonner
    for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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  • Is It The End Of Time?

    Oh my…oh my…

    Locusts…earthquakes…tornadoes… What next? Fire and Brimstone!

    There’s a plague of locusts eating crops in Australia…

    Earthquakes are becoming more common…after devastating quakes hit Haiti and then Chili.

    “We could definitely feel it in Buenos Aires,” said our friends. “It was very unsettling. The heavy blinds we have up outside began smacking against the house as if there were a wind storm. But there wasn’t any wind.”

    Then, a volcanic eruption in Iceland grounded air travelers between Europe and the US…

    And now deadly tornadoes have ripped into the Southern US…and a “giant fireball” was spotted in the Midwest.

    Is it the “end of time”?

    Probably not.

    At least, you’re probably better off betting against it. That is, 9 times out of 10, time continues. Every time people think that something totally new has come along, it turns out that it’s not so new after all.

    Like all those goofballs who thought a “new paradigm” meant eternally rising stock market prices in ’99…or real estate prices that went up forever in 2006.

    You’d think these people would have learned their lesson when the crash/Great Recession of ’07-’09 wiped out $30 trillion worth of nominal wealth. But they’d been exercising their optimism for so long that it’s in pretty good shape. Now, comes the rebound and they’re ready to flex their good-time muscles again.

    The Los Angeles Times reports, for example, that people are “flipping houses in South LA again.”

    Emerging markets have soared – almost recovering all that was lost. And consumers, who had retreated from spending money once they realized they didn’t have any, are once again on steroids – pumping up sales to give the impression of a healthy recovery.

    And there’s a report that the small fry are finally getting back into the stock market. After staying on the sidelines for the last two years, they’re now getting up the confidence to tempt the fates. Good luck to them…

    Of course, it’s perfectly normal for people to believe the de- leveraging is over. Who wants to cut back? Who wants to accept a lower standard of living? Who wants to admit that he’s been a fool? Instead, he’ll tell himself:

    “It’ll all blow over…” “Things are back to normal…” “The feds have the situation under control…” “Now it’s safe to get back into stocks…”

    Meanwhile, the key indicators are still weak or undecided.

    New jobless claims went up unexpectedly last week. The Baltic Dry index is still telling us that there is no genuine pick-up in world trade. The feds’ new homeowner tax credit will expire soon – with property auctions and bank repossessions at record levels…and foreclosures taking their biggest jump in five years.

    Robert Shiller warns that we should expect another dip in the housing market.

    And the Fed itself tells us that it will keep its “extended period” of emergency low rates a while longer.

    What is all this telling us?

    That the Great Correction continues…and that there is far more danger on the downside than there is reward on the upside.

    Barron’s Big Money Poll tells us that bonds are the most detested asset class. Frankly, we don’t like them either. But the Great Correction will eventually take a whack at stock prices…and real estate prices…and commodity prices…

    ..bonds could be the only major asset to escape!

    The big money could be dead wrong…just as the small money is almost always wrong. Bonds might go up as the de-leveraging continues.

    We’ll wait to see what happens…

    Bill Bonner
    for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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  • Primary Loyalties Are Changing

    Whether Greece’s debt crisis ought to have any real affect on the share prices of Aussie banks and resource companies is debatable. What’s not debateable is that stock markets all over the planet are selling off on the down-grading of sovereign debt in Greek and Portugal. The S&P was down 2.3% in the U.S, London down 2.6%, Germany’s Dax down 2.73%, and in Lisbon the market sold off by 5.36%.

    All of that was a bit predictable, given how far markets have come since last March without, we’d argue, much improvement in the debt picture that caused the whole GFC in the first place. What is persistently strange about these sell offs in European and emerging markets is how it causes a rally in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds, given how lousy America’s fiscal position is.

    But the bond market has ruled with the big thumbs down on Greek debt. In the last two weeks, the yield on 2-year Greek debt has more than doubled from 6.1% to 15.35%. This means the market is not confident Greece can meet its obligations and roll over new debt by May 19th. And the market is essentially rejecting the bailout/back stop offer engineered by the EU and the IMF.

    The soaring bond yields are just another way of saying that investors now expect a restructuring of Greek debt which includes a default. Bond investors are not going to be made whole. But something will have to be better than nothing.

    The fact that Greek trouble has spread to Portugal and many of the other fiscally-challenged European states shows what really needs restructuring-expectations on the level of social welfare the nation state can be expected to deliver without bankrupting an economy. But this is a larger issue than politicians have the stomach (and the intellect) to deal with.

    So a great whirlpool of uncertainty now begins to swirl over who is going to pay for what, or whether it can be paid for at all. That is not good for investors in the short-term. But there IS one way in which it’s useful. It’s preview.

    That is, the Greek problem is also a Euro problem. And the Euro problem is a paper money backed by nothing problem coupled with high levels of debt. You can see that the only resolution to a sovereign debt crisis is default of inflation. Because it does not control its own interest rates or money printing (monetary policy) the Greek government is at the mercy of the European Central Bank. And being genetically descended from Germany’s Bundesbank, the ECB is not willing to print Euros in order to save Greece. Default remains.

    The Federal Reserve, of course, CAN print as much as it would like. And this is why we firmly believe the resolution of America’s own sovereign debt problem will be inflation. That’s the investment scenario we’re preparing for…a world awash in increasingly worthless paper claims on the full faith and credit of the United States government. But in the interim, the dollar is getting the 2008-like “flight to safety and liquidity” bid.

    You may not believe this, but in the midst of the accelerating Greek crisis, it’s not even the country that keeps us up at night. That distinction would have to go to China. Mind you we’re not sharing the same bed with China. It’s a big country. It wouldn’t fit on our queen sized mattress.

    But like it or not every Australian investors is in bed with China, or in a relationship if you prefer. And for the last ten years, that’s been a very amicable relationship. And arguably, as big a story as the sovereign debt crisis is (because it impacts global capital flows, which highlights an Australian vulnerability to the rising cost of capital), what happens in China will have a longer-lasting effect on the Aussie share market and the Aussie economy.

    Shanghai stocks fell 2.1%, according to Business week. “Concerns about government efforts to cool a housing price boom have hurt makers of building materials and construction-related machinery, said Liu Feng Feng, a strategist for Central China Securities in Shanghai.”

    This is the subject of a new report we’ve put together that you can read tomorrow. China has become a giant construction site where loose credit policies have unleashed a building boom that’s fuelled demand for Aussie resources. When China’s credit bubble pops, the real estate money machine will grind to a halt. And then?

    It all depends on how much confidence you have in men to manipulate markets. It would be more than a little ironic if Beijing’s central planners pop the bubble and unintentionally unleash a real estate collapse. But this is the trouble with thinking a small committee of decision makers can manage an economy of 1.3 billion people.

    The problem, as Friedrich Hayek pointed out, is one of knowledge. There is just too much to know for so few people. How is any one group of people supposed to know what the idea price of money is, or where credit should be allocated and to whom? Those decisions are best left to individuals with local knowledge acting in their own best interests with transparent pricing information that actually reflects what people want and what they’re willing to pay.

    China can tax third homes on individuals and curb credit or it increase land supply to try to make home values appreciate more slowly. But its property market is fundamentally organised to maximise revenues for local government. It encourages speculation. And the bubble is already baked, full of Australian coking coal and iron ore and zinc and copper and coal.

    It’s the bursting of China’s centrally planned bubble that looms largest for Aussie investors. So even if you get a relief rally after some transparently false resolution to the Greek crisis, you may want to consider a much bigger picture and a longer-term investment game plan. Stay tuned for that.

    And here’s a bonus thought for the day: what if the inevitable collapse of the social welfare state funding model leads people to change their primary loyalty from the State to something more local? For starters, it would mean, we reckon, that the centralising principle of the last 200 years of Western history (in commerce, politics, and living arrangements) may have reached its natural limits.

    The centralising principle would reach those limits for various reasons. One is the inherent fragility of complex systems and their increasing vulnerability to systemic collapse. Globalisation and the division of labour on a global level creates tremendous complexity AND vulnerability.

    Politically, the centralising principle, as emotionally successful as it has been in winning market share/votes (let us live at one another’s expense) is being exposed as economically fraudulent (as well as morally wrong to coerce other people to your way of thinking through taxation). It’s a nice idea, but it may be unaffordable without literally mortgaging the future or destroying our standard of living in the pursuit of a social welfare utopia.

    Just to refresh, Robb defines a primary loyalty as “A connection to a non-state group that is greater than loyalty to a state. These loyalties include those to clan, religion, tribe, neighbourhood gang, etc. These loyalties are reciprocated through the delivery of political goods (by the group that the state cannot or will not deliver).”

    In a prosperous liberal democratic state where people see justice as fair and view the burden of civilisation (taxes) as equitably shared, where corruption is not rife and opportunities exist for social and economic mobility, having your primary loyalty to an abstraction (the rule of law or the State) is no problem. It is the norm.

    But when the State expands the promises it makes and then fails to deliver on more basic ones, people begin to question their primary loyalty. This doesn’t mean they revolt. No one really wants to do that. You only do that when you have no recourse economically and no better prospects.

    We reckon a retreat to a more local way of life is in the works. The rising cost of energy and capital will be one factor. And frankly, to use a Marxist term, people might feel less alienated from their labour and life if they felt more connected to their neighbours and their work. And that’s more possible in a small, more sustainable resilient community than it is in an artificial mega-city of millions. But now we’re just prattling on! Until tomorrow…

    Dan Denning
    for The Daily Reckoning Australia

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  • Chocolate Chip Oatmeal Cookies: Gluten-Free Recipe

    Filed under: , ,

    I baked these cookies last weekend and am happy to report they didn’t taste “gluten-free (GF),” which makes them a huge success in my book. Gluten-free recipes are often overly chewy and far too dense, something I know from first-hand experience as I … Read more

     

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  • Download Firefox Fennec for Android [Android Apps]

    The first build you can install of Firefox for Android—aka Fennec—is “pre-alpha,” but I doubt that’ll stop you. You’ll need a Droid or Nexus One, though. [Download via Vlad1] More »







  • Arizona Governor Signs Immigration Bill To Democrats’ Outrage

    Arizona governor signs immigration bill to Democrats' outrageArizona Governor Jan Brewer made state history on April 23 by signing one of the toughest immigration bills in the country into law. The legislation, while praised by many conservatives and libertarians, has met with Democratic criticism both at the local level and in Washington.

    The Libertarian candidate for governor, Bruce Olson, wrote in a blog for The Arizona Sentinel that he was "proud" of Brewer for the step that is "making it tough to run against ya."

    He added that other states must follow suit with similar laws, but warned that the Federal government may try to overturn the bill.

    However, the new law, which will make it a misdemeanor for foreign nationals to fail to register and carry their documents with them, was heavily criticized by ethnic groups and Democratic lawmakers.

    Among the critics were Hispanic state legislators in Arizona as well as members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in Washington, D.C.

    In the nation’s capital, President Obama called the bill "misguided" but said the Federal government must act on the immigration issue.

    "Our failure to act responsibly will only open the door to irresponsibility by others," he said.

    "That includes the recent efforts in Arizona, which threaten to undermine basic notions of fairness that we cherish as Americans, as well as the trust between police and their communities that is so crucial to keeping us safe," Obama added.

    The president was referring to the part of the bill that requires police officers, if they have a "reasonable suspicion" that someone is an illegal immigrant during a lawful stop, to determine that person’s immigration status and, if necessary, transfer them into Federal custody.ADNFCR-1961-ID-19742471-ADNFCR

  • Arginine And Antioxidant Supplements May Help Improve Exercise Capacity In Elderly People

    Arginine and antioxidant supplements may help improve exercise capacity in elderly people As people age their ability to exercise for extended periods of time slowly diminishes. Fortunately, results of a new University of California study suggest that taking daily arginine and antioxidant supplements can help compensate for the loss of exercise capacity by enhancing a person’s anaerobic threshold, which is the amount of exercise that needs to be done before lactic acid begins to accumulate in the blood.

    For the study, lead author Zhaoping Li and her colleagues from the university recruited 16 active male cyclists between the ages of 50 and 73, and randomly assigned them to take either a mix of arginine and antioxidant supplements or dummy placebo tablets.

    After only one week of taking the nutritional supplements, the study group experienced a 16.7 percent increase in anaerobic threshold. In contrast, the threshold of the control group did not significantly alter.

    "A dietary supplement that increases exercise capacity might help to preserve physical fitness by optimizing performance and improving general health and well-being in older people," said Li.

    She concluded that findings suggest "a potential role of arginine and antioxidant supplementation in improving exercise performance in elderly."
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  • Bowing To China: What It Means To Our Future

    “Let China sleep, for when China awakes she will shake the world.” Napoleon Bonaparte.
                                             
    American greed and extravagance has awakened China, and an eastern shadow is being cast on an indebted and divided America. At stake is our economic future.

    It seems hard to believe but in just two generations, from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama, America has crumpled from world kingpin to global has-been. In fact this month President Obama bowed before Paramount Leader of China, Hu Jintao, at the nuclear security summit.

    Little wonder our President defers to the Chinese leader. The Treasury Department’s monthly Treasury International Capital report was just released and it shows China with $877.5 billion in long-term Treasury debt. Even worse, the Obama administration needs the Chinese government to buy part of the estimated $2.4 trillion in Treasury debt that Washington must sell off this year.

    The Obama administration is praying that the Communists will waddle-up and buy hundreds of more billions of dollars in Uncle Sam IOUs. So far things are not panning out. In February China trimmed its holdings of United States Treasury debt by 1.3 percent, the fourth consecutive decline.

    Unless China antes up the recovery will crash and burn. Without robust foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries, interest rates that Washington pays to keep the country solvent will soar.

    Business Week reported last week that U.S.-China relations are strained on several fronts, including Chinese censorship, the value of the Yuan, the Copenhagen climate conference, even Obama’s meeting with the Dalai Lama. The final point underscores just how little leverage America has—the spiritual leader had to be shown out the back door of the White House, sidestepping trash, for fear that the Chinese might be angered.

    Nixon’s Biggest Blunder
    Short of sacrificing Taiwan and living in economic servitude, there may be no pleasing China. According to The Daily Caller, “In either public or private, China will not take orders from the U.S. or anyone else. Not only has Obama’s rhetorical magic not worked on China, he has received a public dressing down by Chinese officials. It was simply a reminder of new global realities. Ultimately, no one will tame China.”

    It is a far cry from the world we knew 40 years ago. History may yet declare that Richard Nixon’s worst blunder was not Watergate but his awakening of China. When Nixon played his China card in 1972 the U.S. had no diplomatic relations, no embassy; not even an established route of communication with China. But in less than two generations the Soviet Union, America’s then rival, crumbled. Beijing has filled the vacuum. Today it is our largest creditor and it is becoming an unprecedented economic colossus.

    This year China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will top $5 trillion, making it the world’s second-largest economy behind only the U.S. In fact, China has eclipsed Japan five years sooner than was forecast. According to The New York Times, China has also surpassed Japan in having the biggest trade surplus and foreign currency reserves, as well as the highest steel production. China has even overtaken Japan as the world’s largest automobile producer.

    C.H. Kwan, a senior fellow at the Nomura Institute of Capital Market Research, left China in the late 1970s to capture the magic that was Japan. Today he believes he got it all wrong. Based on current growth and currency trends, Kwan forecasts that the Chinese economy will surpass the United States by 2039. And that date could move up to 2026 if China lets its currency appreciate by a mere 2 percent a year.

    “We’re no longer talking about China making lots of shoes,” said Kwan. “China is about to leave everyone behind in a big way.”

    In terms of wealth and power China is becoming what America use to be. China’s GDP grew a shade less than 12 percent in the first quarter of this year. Even more impressively, inflation remained low during the quarter, up just over 2 percent. Strip away food prices, which have jumped because of a major drought, and inflation would almost be flat.

    What makes China’s accomplishment so remarkable is that 40 years ago the nation was impoverished. An estimated 90 million Chinese died under Chairman Mao’s rule, making him thrice as an effective killer of his people than was Joseph Stalin. China has polished up its image on the world stage with dalliances like hosting the Olympic Games, but Mao’s grand ambitions are very much intact.

    According to the April 15, FX Street.com: “China is out for world domination.”

    No Tickey No Money
    China’s military may not yet challenge the U.S., but Beijing wields the world’s most powerful weapon—credit. China’s foreign reserves, the world’s largest, rose to a new high of $2.45 trillion at the end of March, up a whopping 25 percent from a year earlier.

    It wasn’t until 2006, or 30 years after Mao’s death, that China accumulated its first $1 trillion in foreign reserves. Yet by last April that amount had doubled to $2 trillion and by the end of this year Beijing may hold in its hands $3 trillion in foreign reserves. If Obama gets his way, $1 trillion of that sum will be in liquid Treasury instruments. All that money has a lot of strings.

    Last month Premier Wen Jiabao, China’s top economic official, lectured Washington to take "concrete steps" to reassure Treasury investors. Keep in mind the irony: Jiabao, a communist, is demanding that the Obama administration rein in big government spending and preserve the greenback’s integrity. While Obama bows publicly to Beijing, he appears oblivious to their demands on curbing spending. The consequences of this will be horrendous.

    Our future boils down to Washington’s insatiable demand for more money. Earlier this month Commodity Online reported that seven U.S. states are in worse financial condition than Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. “Shelter may prove hard to find. With a $3.83 trillion budget, a $12.3 trillion federal government debt, a $1.35 trillion 2010 budget deficit and $63 trillion in unfunded liabilities, the fiscal condition of the U.S. has come into question and foreign interest in U.S. Treasuries has declined.”

    chart

    As the graph above shows, rates on 10-year Treasuries are now touching on 4 percent, twice as high as they were 16 months ago. If China continues to withdraw from weekly multi-billion dollar Treasury auctions—or worse yet starts to sell some of its Treasury holdings—interest rates will soar. Given the vastness of America’s borrowing needs I would not be surprised to see Treasury yields double again over the next 12 months. That will damn the recovery and kill the bull market in Big Board Stocks. So far only Obama has been bowing down to China, but unless he gets a grip on federal spending, we will all have to get in the prone position.

    Action To Take: Sell any and all bonds other than three-month Treasury bills. Lock in interest rates wherever possible. Don’t buy into the bull market on Wall Street. It is as hollow as a fortune cookie.

    Yours for real wealth and good health,

    John Myers
    Myers’ Energy and Gold Report

  • Study: Eating Brown Rice May Lower Heart Disease Risk

    Study: Eating brown rice may lower heart disease risk Over the last few years nutritionists have identified many health benefits linked to the consumption of brown rice, including its ability to help control cholesterol and blood sugar. According to a new study, routinely eating brown rice may also help protect a person from high blood pressure and atherosclerosis, two important risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

    Through comprehensive research, lead author Satoru Eguchi and his colleagues from the Cardiovascular Research Center at Temple University discovered that brown rice contains a layer of tissue capable of combating angiotensin II, an endocrine protein partially responsible for the development of high blood pressure and the hardening of the arteries.

    The subaleurone layer of brown rice, which is stripped away to make white rice, is also rich in dietary fibers and oligosaccharides.

    "Our research suggests that there is a potential ingredient in rice that may be a good starting point for looking into preventive medicine for cardiovascular diseases," said Eguchi. "We hope to present an additional health benefit of consuming half-milled or brown rice [as opposed to white rice] as part of a regular diet."

    The researcher also speculated that the study’s findings may help shed light on why fewer people die of heart disease in Japan than the United States.
    ADNFCR-1961-ID-19743386-ADNFCR

  • The Storied History Of May 1

    “May Day!” “May Day!” The first day in May has been a warning, a celebration and a cause for alarm for more than two centuries.

    May 1 has been a time of international socialist solidarity ever since Communists seized power in their first country. Although Karl Marx was sure that his “workers of the world” would unite first in the industrialized west, instead it was a Bolshevik coup in Russia that led to the first Soviet state.

    On the other hand, May 1 was a pretty good day for the end of hostilities (or at least open fighting) in the United Kingdom. Because it was on May 1, 1707, that England, Wales, and Scotland formed “the United Kingdom of Great Britain.”

    But wait, there’s more. On May 1, 1961, Fidel Castro announced that (surprise!) he’d been a Communist all along. He named himself "president for life," claiming there was no longer any need to hold free elections in Cuba. Unfortunately for the Cuban people, it turned out to be a very long life.

    On May 1, 1920, Babe Ruth hit his first home run as a Yankee. And on May 1, 1951, Mickey Mantle hit his first major league home run. There would be many, many more by both men.

    —Chip Wood

  • Hands-on with the Firefox browser for Android phones

    Firefox Fennec browser on Android

    This isn’t the first time we’ve seen the Firefox mobile browser running on Android, but it’s the first time that Mozilla’s been comfortable enough with it to compile the app for us mere mortals to test out.

    Why do we care so much about another browser for Android when the stock Webkit browser works pretty darn well? Two words: Mozilla Weave. Being able to sync your history, bookmarks and even open tabs between your desktop and mobile browser is something I’ve been wanting since first hearing about Fennec. And we’re getting closer.

    Note that this is still very early in the development stage. While anyone can download and install this build of Fennec, it will crash. It will hang. It’s a little buggy. And it’s very cool that Mozilla lets us play with it this early in its life, so don’t judge it too harshly. A few warnings from Mozilla’s Vladimir Vukićević:

    • We’ve only really tested this on the Motorola Droid and the Nexus One.
    • It will likely not eat your phone, but bugs might cause your phone to stop responding, requiring a reboot.
    • Memory usage of this build isn’t great — in many ways it’s a debug build, and we haven’t really done a lot of optimization yet.  This could cause some problems with large pages, especially on low memory devices like the Droid.
    • You’ll see the app exit and relaunch on first start, as well as on add-on installs; this is a quirk of our install process, and we’re working to get rid of it.
    • You can’t open links from other apps using Fennec; we should have this for the next build.

    Anyhoo, you can download Fennec here. (FWIW: Mozilla tested with the Nexus One and Droid — your mileage may vary — and it does NOT work if you’re running Apps2SD.) And be sure to read Vlad’s blog for complete instructions and troubleshooting, including instructions for installing Weave.

    And check out our hands-on video after the break.

    read more

  • In Defiance Of Federal Reform Bill, Florida Passes Healthcare Freedom Act

    In defiance of federal reform bill, Florida passes Healthcare Freedom ActIn an effort to blunt the impact of the sweeping healthcare reform passed by Congress and signed by President Obama late last month, the Florida legislature has passed an act that aims to protect the state’s healthcare system from interference.

    Florida’s Healthcare Freedom Act (HJR 37/SJR 72), sponsored by Florida Representative Scott Plakon and Florida Senator Carey Baker, passed the House and Senate and will appear on the November ballot.

    The legislation, which was inspired by the American Legislative Exchange Council’s Freedom of Choice in Healthcare Act, blocks a state or federal requirement for individuals to purchase health insurance.

    "Protecting the individual freedom for people to make their own healthcare decisions is a priority," said ALEC health task force director Christie Herrera.

    She added that "the amount of support from state legislators and policy makers for this legislation has been tremendous."

    ALEC’s Freedom of Choice in Health Care Act has now been introduced or proposed in 42 states.

    Meanwhile, Mississippi Representatives Alex Monsour and Steven Palazzo received preliminary approval to place their Healthcare Freedom Act on the 2011 or 2012 ballot.
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  • Molly Ringwald’s Relationship Advice, Happy Meal Debate and More

    Filed under:

    Each morning, we dish out a few links we love.

    Good for you for eating your five to 10 servings of fruit and veggies and day, but are you eating the wrong ones? Check out what experts have to say on the best produce for your health.

    Had a … Read more

     

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  • Go-Go-Vitruvianspector! [Image Cache]

    If Leonardo da Vinci ever had the Inspector Gadget theme song stuck in his head, he would’ve sketched out this shirt design long ago. Then again, it probably would’ve also sold out long ago, just like that Tron Hoodie. [Threadless] More »