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  • Is there really an iPad interference problem?

    By Scott M. Fulton, III, Betanews

    A slow, but steadily increasing, trickle of messages on Apple’s iPad discussion forums appears to confirm the findings of Princeton University’s Network Systems engineers, who dealt this month with a rapid influx of iPads over a concentrated area. What they’ve been noticing is that Wi-Fi on iPads that are set for dynamic DHCP leases — assignments of IP addresses to clients for limited time periods — are failing to renew those leases when time expires, often after just a few hours.

    As a result, users’ iPads are stuck with the message “Connecting…” and no easy, or apparent, way to renew their network connections. Although Princeton discovered the problem as early as April 4, and Apple forum discussions began April 11, Apple’s only suggestion has left some customers struggling.

    “Apple iPads began appearing on Princeton University’s campus soon after they become available April 3, 2010. On April 4, we observed our first DHCP client malfunction from an iPad. Over the next few days, additional iPads malfunctioned in the same way,” reads an ongoing page on the subject from Princeton’s Office of Information Technology. “The malfunction we see is that the iPad uses DHCP to obtain a lease, renews the lease zero or more times (as expected), but then continues using the IP address without renewing the lease further. The iPad allows the DHCP lease to expire, but it continues using the IP address after allowing the lease to expire. The incident continues for some time (typically hours); usually it ends when the iPad asks for a new DHCP lease, or the iPad disconnects from the network.”

    Since the iPad was released, there have been a number of reported cases of weak Wi-Fi connectivity. But these cases don’t appear to have a common root, and in some instances, it appears users’ wireless routers were at fault, rather than the iPad. Some have suggested — and one site demonstrated with regard to dropping signals from Netflix — simply restoring Wi-Fi settings to factory defaults. One Australia-based consultant suggested setting Wi-Fi connectivity to “Auto,” and the positive public response made him something of an online hero.

    But that’s not related to the DHCP lease case, which has a more defined profile. Some forum contributors report their network connectivity is stuck after putting their iPads to sleep for a while. That could be related to the Princeton issue, or it could be related to the cloud of weak Wi-Fi issues. Nonetheless, on April 5, Apple responded to the sleep problem by taking the Netflix route: resetting to default.

    And since that time, volunteer supporters have been referring iPad owners with possibly related issues, such as the DHCP lease case, back to the April 5 message: Have you tried resetting to defaults? Other users with home routers have set their routers to static IP addresses, which they report solves the problem.

    That doesn’t help Princeton, which runs a campus-wide network. As its OIT team explained late last week, it sets up dynamic IP addresses to expire no later than three hours after lease. “Shorter leases allow us to recover unused IP addresses rapidly, in turn permitting us to assign globally-routable IP addresses to clients without requiring Princeton to impose a NAT between wireless clients and the Internet,” the team’s iPad problem announcement page reads.

    It goes on to chide some technology blogs for having reported that Princeton “banned” the use of iPads on campus, when it never did any such thing. The team’s later, in-depth explanation suggests that some on the team may resent the implication that Princeton is the one at fault here, at the very least for making an issue out of the “magical” iPad.

    “We could choose instead to not take a pro-active stance to these kinds of issues. A more common approach is to ignore the kinds of problems caused by devices using IP addresses not leased to them, allowing such malfunctioning devices to cause sporadic mysterious network problems for customers as their IP addresses are ‘stolen.’ Sites that use that approach may take action only when a victim of a malfunctioning device chooses to complain. Most victims probably don’t complain because these kinds of problems appear random and short-lived to each victim, and often go away when they ‘try again.’ We feel that the stance we take ultimately benefits our customers, as it results in more reliable network service to the customers. It reduces the frequency that our customers experience network disruptions due to others’ malfunctioning devices.”

    Princeton is not alone in having noticed the issue; a warning about iPad DHCP leasing turned up on this knowledge base page at LSU.

    Probably gearing up for a round of “See, I Told You So” with reporters are members of Israel’s Ministry of Communications. A few weeks ago, it banned the import of iPads into the country, prior to Apple’s commencement of its distribution deal there with premium reseller iDigital. Though it was reported that iPads themselves were banned in Israel, in fact, it was the import of American versions of the device that the Ministry had banned, and then partly restored in an announcement Saturday (PDF available here).

    “The scrutiny conducted by the Ministry technical team vis-à-vis Apple’s team, International laboratory and European counterparts confirmed that the device which could be operated in various standards will be operated in Israel in accordance to the local standards,” reads the Ministry spokesperson’s announcement.

    But as TG Daily contributor Aharon Etengoff first noted, and Time Magazine later expounded on, iDigital is owned by Nehemia “Chemi” Peres, the son of Israel’s prime minister, Shimon Peres — a fact that was not lost on iPhone customers last year. An Israel-based commenter to the LA Times noted that iDigital had exclusive Israel sales rights to the iPhone, and only began selling it there for the first time in June 2009, well over two years after its worldwide introduction, at essentially full market prices.

    That’s a total of three iPad interference problems, only one of which may have any real substance to it. That doesn’t mean it’s not real, though.

    Copyright Betanews, Inc. 2010



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  • New developer challenge offers Android devs a trip to TED if they can get people moving

    Obesity sucks. Unfortunately, smart phones generally don’t do much to make the problem any better. Sure, there are plenty of exercise-assistance apps, like RunKeeper, built to make exercising easier and thus more likely to happen — but for the most part, our smartphones help us to move less. Why walk to the computer downstairs, when you’ve got the web in your pocket? Why walk aimlessly around the city looking for a fun new restaurant, when there are a million review apps telling you where to go and Google Maps telling you the shortest way there?

    Looking to counteract this, Snaptic has launched the “Move Your App!” developer challenge. The idea is simple: develop an Android app that gets people up and moving, and you could win an all-expense paid trip to the TED Global 2010 conference.

    We don’t generally write about third-party developer challenges here on MobileCrunch, but I dig the motive of this one. Getting people to be healthy and live longer is a pretty noble goal.

    The contest is free to enter, though there’s one catch: whatever your app is, it needs to make use of at least one of Snaptic’s APIs. Snaptic’s APIs are largely focused around the creation and syncing of notes — so, depending on what your app is, it might be tough to work that in.

    The challenge runs until May 27th, so get crackin’. You can check out the full details for the dev challenge here. Be sure to let us know if you enter, won’t you? Good luck!


  • More Whitney Houston Concert Woes As Fans Walk Out Of UK Show

    Well, this is one tune that’s becoming part of an all too familiar song. Whitney Houston performed live at England’s O2 Arena over the weekend…and the critically-panned performance left mirrors cracking all over the UK.

    The singing icon had another difficult night while performing to a sold out house on Sunday night. According to The Daily Mail’smusic reviewer Georgina Littlejohn, who had a front run seat for the foolery, hundreds of people walked out in the middle of a two-hour show which saw Houston reportedly missed multiple lines in multiple songs, panting excessively while performing, and randomly pausing without explanation.

    Even Whit was startled by her bizarre performance, telling the disappointed concertgoers: “She don’t want to come, my soprano friend… Sometimes the old girl sings, but not tonight…I want to do it, but she doesn’t want to… She’s getting a little… temperamental, even.”

    The singer reportedly blamed the air conditioning in the arena for the debacle (Insert rolling eyes here….Uh-Huh. It’s totally the air conditioner’s fault!) — critics, on the other hand, were far less forgiving.

    Littlejohn wrote: “She struggled further with another of her classic songs, this time cutting short ‘Greatest Love Of All,’ only managing to pull of a couple of verses. And during much of the set she paused and panted for breath between songs while her backing singers did a great job of carrying her with their melodies. Her outfit also left a bit to be desired. She came on stage in tight leather trousers, a sequinned jacket that struggled to fasten at her middle and a bloated face. Whitney did manage to stay on stage for the majority of the two-hour gig, her first of three at the Docklands venue. But fans were still unhappy, with some even demanding their money back.”


  • REPORT: Smart climate policy will boost growth, create 2.8 million jobs, slash pollution

    Climate Policy Creates Millions Of JobsA new macroeconomic analysis of green economic policies finds that cutting global warming pollution will make the economy grow faster.  Brad Johnson has the story in this Wonk Room repost.

    The Center for Climate Strategies (CCS), building upon analysis they did of state-level climate plans for the National Governors Association, analyzed the economic and environmental impact of legislation in line with the planned Kerry-Graham-Lieberman framework. As long as state-level policies are boosted, CCS found that previous economic analyses by federal agencies and industry groups are wrong. This CCS analysis finds that instead of slowing the economy, household wealth and jobs will grow faster in a green economy. Carbon limits and efficiency-focused policies would have a net positive employment impact of 2.8 million jobs and expand the economy by $154.7 billion by 2020, while US emissions are cut to 27 percent below 1990 levels — if strong standards are set:

    The modeled job creation is consistent with the findings of Political Economy Research Institute at the University of Massachusetts, which used an input-output model to find that a green economy would create 1.7 million new jobs. The center looked at three different policy scenarios, using the industry-standard REMI Policy Insight PI+ macroeconomic model:

    – Strong local, state and federal implementation of green economic policies like green building codes and smart growth
    – These strong policies combined with a federal cap-and-trade system and coupled fuel fee to guarantee emissions reductions of 27 percent below 1990 levels by 2010

    – Scaled-back implementation of the policies and cap-and-trade system in line with President Obama’s goal of six percent below 1990 levels, similar to the Kerry-Graham-Lieberman bill soon to be considered

    The cap-and-trade system modeled uses full auction of permits and 75 percent of proceeds going directly back to consumers and 25 percent going to technology investments. No proceeds are dedicated to deficit reduction, as none is needed — a faster-growing economy will increase other tax receipts.

    In every single scenario, policies that cut waste and save money by eliminating market failures predominate, making the U.S. economy a more efficient free market and accelerating job growth and household wealth. The report finds that stronger environmental targets and standards deliver greater economic benefits — even if the tremendous benefits of reducing pollution have for health and environmental costs are ignored.

    The 23 recommended climate strategies range the gamut from agriculture, energy supply, electricity use, to transportation. These strategies — most of which save money — combined can achieve major carbon pollution reductions:

    Climate Strategies Cost Curve

    This is what true all-of-the-above energy policy looks like. The suite of recommended policies coming from the consultants to the Center for Climate Strategies report — the stakeholders in local and state governments, businesses, and energy users — must be taken as a top priority, even if they don’t have an army of lobbyists to promote this green economic agenda. The current level of ambition in Washington is not only insufficient to mitigate the damages of global warming, it is leaving hundreds of thousands of jobs on the table.

  • One Night With Cadillac

    One Night With Cadillac

  • Forget Oil: 15 Countries Sitting On A Fortune Of Metals And Minerals

    south africa iron ore

    The most resource-rich country in the world is… probably Saudi Arabia.

    But oil isn’t the only valuable resource. A Citi report lists the richest countries in terms of metals and ore.

    Investors should look for countries where production is relatively low and the resource lifetime is long.

    Guinea — $222 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Guinea -- $222 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Bauxite mine

    Reserves composition (value):

    100% Bauxite

    Years of production: 444

    Indonesia — $227 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Indonesia -- $227 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Port facilities at Indonesia’s Benete Bay copper mine

    Image: mining-technology.com

    Reserves composition (value):

    48% Copper
    33% Gold
    19% Nickel

    Years of production: 27

    Mexico — $240 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Mexico -- $240 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Mexico’s huge Cananea copper mine

    Reserves composition (value):

    56% Copper
    15% Gold
    10% Iron ore
    10% Zinc

    Years of production: 62

    Kazakhstan — $292 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Kazakhstan -- $292 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Kostanay region open-cast iron ore mine

    Reserves composition (value):

    64% Iron ore
    22% Copper
    10% Zinc
    4% Bauxite

    Years of production: 117

    India — $296 billion in metal & ore reserves

    India -- $296 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Image: The Hindu

    Reserves composition (value):

    86% Iron ore
    8% Bauxite
    6% Zinc

    Years of production: 164

    Photo: The Hindu

    Peru — $328 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Peru -- $328 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Southern Peru Copper Corporation

    Reserves composition (value):

    68% Copper
    11% Gold
    10% Zinc

    Years of production: 23

    Ukraine — $516 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Ukraine -- $516 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Gleyevatskiy iron ore mine

    Reserves composition (value):

    99% Iron Ore
    1% Potash

    Years of production: 161

    USA — $613 billion in metal & ore reserves

    USA -- $613 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Bingham Canyon Open Pit Copper Mine in Utah

    Reserves composition (value):

    20% Copper
    19% Iron Ore
    12% Gold
    5% Platinum (PGM)
    4% Zinc
    3% Potash

    Years of production: 44

    Chile — $661 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Chile -- $661 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Chilean copper mine

    Image: duquesneminesupply.com

    Reserves composition (value):

    85% Copper
    8% Gold

    Years of production: 31

    China — $717 billion in metal & ore reserves

    China -- $717 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Chinese execs of Australia’s Rio Tinto

    Reserves composition (value):

    57% Iron ore
    15% Copper
    8% Zinc
    7% Gold

    Years of production: 17

    Brazil — $726 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Brazil -- $726 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Samarco Alegria Iron Ore Mine, Brazil

    Image: mining-technology.com

    Reserves composition (value):

    70% Iron ore
    8% Bauxite
    8% Nickel
    7% Gold
    7% Potash

    Years of production: 31 

    Canada — $1,000 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Canada -- $1,000 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Potash feldspar in Canada

    Reserves composition (value):

    79% Potash
    6% Iron ore
    5% Nickel
    3% Gold
    3% Copper
    1% Zinc
    1% Platinum (PGM)

    Years of production: 56

    Australia — $1,588 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Australia -- $1,588 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Western Australia iron ore mine

    Image: leighton.com.au

    Reserves composition (value):

    46% Iron ore
    22% Nickel
    12% Bauxite
    9% Gold
    5% Copper
    1% Zinc

    Years of production: 43

    Photo: Leighton Holdings

    Russia — $1,636 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Russia -- $1,636 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Image: France 24

    Reserves composition (value):

    49% Iron ore
    20% Potash
    14% Platinum (PGM)
    8% Gold
    5% Nickel
    4% Copper

    Years of production: 99

    Photo: France 24

    South Africa — $2,494 billion in metal & ore reserves

    South Africa -- $2,494 billion in metal & ore reserves

    Image: northam.co.za

    Reserves composition (value):

    91% Platinum (PGM)
    6% Gold
    2% Nickel
    1% Iron ore

    Years of production: 184

    Don’t miss…

    Don't miss...

    15 Drill-Crazy Countries That Are Running Out Of Oil >

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Green:Net 2010 — Hurry, Just a Few Tickets Left!

    Green:Net is almost sold out! The only conference dedicated to the intersection of Internet technology and green has just a handful of tickets left; they’re available on a first-come, first-serve basis. GigaOM readers can get a $75 discount — just follow this link to register now.

    The speakers at Green:Net 2010, which will take place this Thursday, will be focused on one thing: how software, computing and the web can be leveraged to save the planet. At the same time, attendees will glean insights into huge new technology markets that will spearhead the green economy.

    A selection from our speaker list includes:

    • Jerry Brown, California Attorney General and Gubernatorial Candidate
    • Vinod Khosla, Founder, Khosla Ventures
    • Steve Jurvetson, Managing Director at Draper Fisher Jurvetson
    • Bill Weihl, Google’s Green Energy Czar
    • Bill Gross, Founder and CEO of Idealab
    • Dian Grueneich, Commissioner for the California Public Utilities Commission
    • Laura Ipsen, SVP and GM, Smart Grid, Cisco
    • Eric Dresselhuys, EVP, Silver Spring Networks
    • Michael Harrigan VP of Electric Vehicle Services, NRG Energy
    • Pedro Pizarro EVP, Power Operations, Southern California Edison

    Companies represented include Ford, IBM, Nissan, General Motors, Cisco, Silver Spring Networks, SAP, Reliant Energy, Microsoft, Greenpeace and many more.

    So join us this Thursday, April 29th in San Francisco as we uncover new opportunities for entrepreneurs to shape the future of greentech.

    • Green:Net 2010
    • April 29, Mission Bay Conference Center, San Francisco

    For exhibit opportunities call Mike Sly at (415) 235-0358 or email events at gigaom dot com.

    Image courtesy of bisonblog’s photostream.

  • Nexus One launching on Vodafone this Friday and at a quarter past never on Verizon

    So we’ll do the good news first; Vodafone customers can pre-order their Nexus One today and retail launch will be this Friday, April 30th. The Nexus One will be free on a two-year contract, which to our U.S. readership will seem crazy, but my understanding is that’s how you guys roll. Data limitations are a little sketchier with a 1GB 3G data cap, but I’m sure you’ll manage to muddle through.

    Now for the bad news; Verizon customers who’ve been hemming and hawing over whether to get the Nexus One or the Incredible can finally stop worrying and just buy the Incredible. Google hasn’t come right out and said that it will never be available, but the familiar “coming soon” has been pulled from their phone site and replaced with “For Verizon’s network, you can buy the Droid Incredible by HTC, a powerful Android phone and similarly feature-packed cousin of the Nexus One.” The Google Nexus One Board was similarly updated to direct Verizon Nexus One holdouts to go out and buy the Droid Incredible.

    So while it isn’t over until the fat multi-billion dollar company sings; I’d definitely say they are warming up their pipes.

    Now by all accounts the Droid Incredible is a fantastic device and even fixes issues that the Nexus One suffered from, but I understand the allure of the cutting edge Android OS updates that the Nexus One offers.

    So will those of you holding out for the Nexus One on Verizon make do with the Droid Incredible, continue waiting for the Nexus One in hopes that Google is just testing your faith, move to another carrier for the Nexus One, or just wait for the next big thing to come down the pike?

    Update: The official Google response provided to Engadget.

    “We won’t be selling a Nexus One with Verizon, and this is a reflection of the amazing innovation happening across the open Android ecosystem. Verizon Wireless customers who want an Android phone with the power of the Nexus One can get the Droid Incredible by HTC.”

    Related Posts

  • The acceptance letter | Gene Expression

    I heard an interview on the radio by the author of No Longer Separate, Not Yet Equal: Race and Class in Elite College Admission and Campus Life. The study focused on elite universities. I decided to poke around and see what I could find. The chart on probability of acceptance by SAT score broken down by race has no surprises.

    page82a

    Equalizing standardized test scores I assume everyone knows that at elite universities there’s an Asian penalty, and blacks and Hispanics tend to get a bonus, with whites as a reference population in the middle. The author warned though that looking at standardized test scores may not indicate any discrimination against Asians, as it didn’t include in other “soft” aspects of the application such as leadership, which Asians naturally must lack because of their conformist and collectivist nature (OK, I added the last part!). But the class chart was more interesting to me….

    page82b

    It looks like you better not be too dumb if you’re middle class. Lower class people get a nice handicap, while presumably the low scoring upper class types are stereotypical legacies. But at elite universities if you’re of middle socioeconomic status I guess all the leadership and exceptional talents can’t help; acceptance rates ~0 once your SAT scores approach the national norm.

    But is this a matter of the confounds? In other words is this is a real signal of class based discrimination, or are there differences in the makeup of each class demographically skewing this? Here’s a regression model which seems to suggest there isn’t much to class, but more to race. The blacks in this case are broken down between descendants of slaves, and those who are presumably the children of immigrants or immigrants from the West Indies and Africa.

    pag90

    The racial effects are the ones which are statistically significant. It’s interesting that black Americans who don’t have any recent immigrant ancestry get a very significant boost vis-a-vis West Indians, etc.

  • App Deals: Get Glu Mobile’s Glyder 2 For 99 Cents

    Another day, another chance to snag a great 3D gaming title for a great price. This time around, the popular (and highly-rated) Glyder 2 from Glu Mobile can now be had for just under a buck, on sale from the regular (and still reasonable) $4.99 asking price. 

    Thanks to H2O for the tip!

  • “Avatar” Fast-Selling DVD Ever

    James Cameron’s Avatar managed to dethrone the lensman’s 1997 epic Titanic as the highest-grossing film of all-time when it slammed into theaters last November — now the fantasy film is doing the same thing on home release.

    Avatar sold 6.7 million DVDs and blu-ray discs in its first four days of release, The Daily Telegraph said on Monday. The number sets a record and makes Avatar the best-selling DVD ever. The flick also moved a reported 2.7 million blu-ray discs, besting The Dark Knight’s previously existing record of 2.5 million total.

    It took Avatar just four days to beat a number that the 2008 earned over six months of sales.

    Impressive!


  • ESRB: BlazBlue bursting onto DSiWare

    PSPs in North America are already getting a dose of BlazBlue action. DS owners are also not getting left out. The ESRB has recently rated BlayzBloo: Super Melee Brawlers Battle Royale for a DSiWare release.

  • Documents to Go for webOS in Suspension

    documents to go webos pre
    Users still holding out for a robust office document editing solution for webOS are going to have to keep waiting according to the latest news from DataViz. The longtime developers of the Documents to Go editing suite, which was born on the classic Palm OS platform, have announced that a long promised version of Documents to Go for webOS is at a “standstill” with no release date in sight.

    The company has released a statement on its corporate blog detailing the situation. The company says they are continuing to work with Palm on the situation, but “given the current environment at Palm”, the company can not commit to a release nor build out the app it needs. DataViz still leaves the door open to a release at some point, but given the lengthy wait to date and the tone of the post it does not look hopeful at present.






  • SciVee Partners With Thomson Reuters

    Bruce V. Bigelow wrote:

    SciVee CEO Marc Friedmann tells me the San Diego startup I profiled previously as a YouTube for scientists, has struck a partnership with ScholarOne, the peer-review workflow management system operated by Thomson Reuters. The agreement will give users of ScholarOne Abstracts (previously known as Abstract Central) the ability to capture and share multimedia content from scientific presentations. Friedmann says financial terms were not disclosed.

    UNDERWRITERS AND PARTNERS



























  • Labor Shortage Could Spell Inflation And Trade Deficits For China

    china factory(This is a guest post from Credit Writedowns.)

    Informed researchers are asking what happens to China based on the recent demographic shift from rural labour surplus to rural labour deficit.  The answer may be slower growth and higher inflation, according to a paper released last month by China’s Center for Economic Research at Peking University. But other impacts may also be increased consumption and a deteriorating external balance.

    The paper by Huang Yiping and Jiang Tingsong is a very technical and dense work based on macroeconomic modelling. But the results are clear: If China’s rural labour surplus evaporates (as seems to already have occurred), we are going to see savings drop and productivity collapse.

    The paper is based on the work of Sir Arthur Lewis, an economist from St. Lucia. [Here’s his Wikipedia entry.]

    What Lewis found is that industrial wages rise very quickly when the supply of excess rural labour is exhausted. This is called the Lewis Turning Point and is where China is right now.

    This will have major implications for the Chinese domestic economy and the world economy. The first implication is inflation. Without the endless stream of excess rural labour, wages are going to go way up in China and this means inflation will be a problem.  Over the last twenty years, the introduction into the global economy of the former Eastern Bloc and China has meant a huge surge in available labour. Despite a flood of money from the Japanese and U.S. central banks, this influx of labour has effectively capped consumer price inflation in developed economies. The result has been the so-called Great Moderation.

    If China has reached its Lewis Turning Point, all of that is out the window and Central banks will face a Scylla and Charybdis flation challenge for years. China’s labour shortage will work in concert with resource constraints and likely excess money supply as an inflationary force. These forces are countered by major deflationary forces from the debt overhang resulting from the implosion of the global asset bubble. We are seeing those deflationary forces in Greece right now.

    From a Chinese domestic perspective, the Lewis Turning Point will crater productivity levels as wage rates rise. The corollaries of this increase in wages and lower productivity are slower GDP growth, higher consumption, lower savings and a deteriorating external balance of payments aka current account deficits.  As I have been saying for a few months now, the whole protectionist fervour directed at China’s currency peg is completely misguided (see Roach: GD II awaits if China bashing rhetoric turns into protectionism). It is not clear that a small increase in the Yuan would have an appreciable impact on the U.S. current account with China.

    Within the Chinese economy, there would be dramatically different effects depending on the labour’s share of the value added. Again, it’s not clear which sectors would be worst affected by this labour supply shock.  But, what the Chinese economists are trying to do is figure out how China can avoid the so-called middle-income trap that has afflicted Latin America and the Middle East. After these countries reached their Lewis Turning Point, they failed to move up the industrial ladder and still rely very heavily on  resource-based industries like oil and industrial commodities. If China wants to keep its GDP growth up, it will need to move up the value chain.

    At a minimum, however, this study indicates we could be in store for some big changes in China in the not too distant future.

    Source: What Does The Lewis Turning Point Mean For China – China Center for Economic Research

    Join the conversation about this story »

  • Faking fitness

    Geoffrey Miller wonders why we haven’t met aliens. I think his proposed answer has a lot to do with the state of the world and why it’s hard to sell good modeling.

    I don’t know why this 2006 Seed article bubbled to the top of my reader, but here’s an excerpt:

    The story goes like this: Sometime in the 1940s, Enrico Fermi was talking about the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence with some other physicists. … Fermi listened patiently, then asked, simply, “So, where is everybody?” That is, if extraterrestrial intelligence is common, why haven’t we met any bright aliens yet? This conundrum became known as Fermi’s Paradox.

    It looks, then, as if we can answer Fermi in two ways. Perhaps our current science over-estimates the likelihood of extraterrestrial intelligence evolving. Or, perhaps evolved technical intelligence has some deep tendency to be self-limiting, even self-exterminating. …

    I suggest a different, even darker solution to the Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don’t blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they’re too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. …

    The fundamental problem is that an evolved mind must pay attention to indirect cues of biological fitness, rather than tracking fitness itself. This was a key insight of evolutionary psychology in the early 1990s; although evolution favors brains that tend to maximize fitness (as measured by numbers of great-grandkids), no brain has capacity enough to do so under every possible circumstance. … As a result, brains must evolve short-cuts: fitness-promoting tricks, cons, recipes and heuristics that work, on average, under ancestrally normal conditions.

    The result is that we don’t seek reproductive success directly; we seek tasty foods that have tended to promote survival, and luscious mates who have tended to produce bright, healthy babies. … Technology is fairly good at controlling external reality to promote real biological fitness, but it’s even better at delivering fake fitness—subjective cues of survival and reproduction without the real-world effects.

    Fitness-faking technology tends to evolve much faster than our psychological resistance to it.

    … I suspect that a certain period of fitness-faking narcissism is inevitable after any intelligent life evolves. This is the Great Temptation for any technological species—to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures, and less to their children. They eventually die out when the game behind all games—the Game of Life—says “Game Over; you are out of lives and you forgot to reproduce.”

    I think the shorter version might be,

    The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing… if you can fake that, you’ve got it made. – Attributed to Groucho Marx

    The general problem for corporations and countries is that there’s a big problem attributing success to individuals. People rise in power, prestige and wealth by creating the impression of fitness, rather than creating any actual fitness, as long as there are large stocks that separate action and result in time and space and causality remains unclear. That means that there are two paths to oblivion. Miller’s descent into a self-referential virtual reality could be one. More likely, I think, is sinking into a self-deluded reality that erodes key resource stocks, until catastrophe follows – nukes optional.

    The antidote for the attribution problem is good predictive modeling. The trouble is, the truth isn’t selling very well. I suspect that’s partly because we have less of it than we typically think. More importantly, though, leaders who succeeded on BS and propaganda are threatened by real predictive power. The ultimate challenge for humanity, then, is to figure out how to make insight about complex systems evolutionarily successful.