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7. In my most controversial NY Times column, I said that what the economy needed was negative real interest rates, which could be accomplished via inflation. A temporary ITC does something similar. By temporarily reducing the effective price of capital goods, it creates expected inflation in this particular price. Under the numerical example above, the effective price of new capital would immediately fall by 20 percent, and expected inflation would rise by 10 percent. If nominal rates stay at zero, the real interest rate measured in units of new capital goods would become negative 10 percent. That is one way to view the way in which a temporary ITC stimulates investment spending.

8. So much for theory, but would it work?  The cash-for-clunkers program is thought by many to have promoted, or at least accelerated, car purchases. An ITC would be similar, but it would apply to business investment rather than personal cars. Instead of targeting a very narrow, politically favored industry, it encourages investment broadly. It should have positive effects on aggregate demand in the short run and positive effects on aggregate supply in the medium and longer run.

Read all 9 reasons at Greg Mankiw’s Blog –>

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See Also:

• How The Home Buyer Tax Credit Is Bankrupting The FHA
• That $8,000 Tax Credit Actually Costs $43,000 For Every New Home Buyer
• Why Is The Fed Happy Buying All Those Mortgages? Because You’re Guaranteeing Them!

If you haven’t come across this short video, it gives a good overview of how FloEFD is blazing a path of least resistance so mechanical designers can streamline their workflow using Concurrent CFD – CFD embedded in the mechanical design environment.

Note that it’s ONLY by embedding CFD within the MCAD tool that these time savings can be achieved, and FloEFD is the ONLY Concurrent CFD solution available today. It’s a new paradigm in CFD allowing analysis to be done upfront during conceptual design and concurrently with design changes made as the design is elaborated.

That’s it for me for this year. I’ve got a few things in the pipe for next year – some cool Indy Car analysis done by the guys at Voxdale, a couple of Flash animations that really help explain why Concurrent CFD is THE way to go when it comes to compressing design times to develop a fluent design process – plus some other stuff I’m hoping to get back to, like the BBQ study.

Check back early in the New Year.

Season’s Greetings!

Dr. J, Hampton Court

The European Commission today presented the results of the first-ever survey on creativity and innovation in schools. The results show that 94% of European teachers believe creativity is a fundamental competence to be developed at school, and 88% are convinced that everyone can be creative. In order to achieve that, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are considered very important among teachers (80%): computers, educational software, videos, online collaborative tools, virtual learning environments, interactive whiteboards, and free online material and courses. These results were presented at the Closing Conference of the European Year of Creativity and Innovation in Stockholm, 16 – 17 December.

China, once a proud holder of United States post-World War II debt, is getting scared.

For years the People’s Republic has bought U.S. Treasuries, eventually becoming the largest holder of U.S. debt ($799 BILLION to be exact!). Those days are long gone, though.

During 2009, China hasn’t been buying many Treasuries and has been unloading dollars in a way that makes Geithner shiver at night.

And other big U.S. debt carriers like Japan may follow suit if confidence is lost.

This presentation, courtesy of RBS, takes a deeper look into China’s holdings and associated volumes since 2005. Get ready for shock and awe.

Click here to view the presentation –>

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See Also:

• Jim Chanos: We’re Shorting Autos, China, And Commodities But Not Financials
• China Just Broke Russia’s Monopoly On Central-Asian Natural Gas
• The US-China Trade War Is Here

Avatar will drive “incredible excitement” in the months to come, says Pali Research’s Rich Greenfield.

Because of that, Rich upgraded News Corp. from a sell to neutral in a note this morning.

Greenfield says the risk/reward of shorting News Corp. after seeing a screening of Avatar is not appealing.

He writes, “the honest truth is that nobody in the world has ever seen a movie like Avatar.”

While the movie probably won’t generate huge profits, it will not be a disaster, profit-wise, he says. Fox’s film slate overall is looking good.

Here’s Greenfield:

• Earnings estimates are going higher, even without outperformance in film. As shown in Exhibit A, our revised estimates now assume high-teens organic operating income growth in fiscal (June) 2010, well above management guidance of high-single to low-double digit growth, albeit largely discounted in the stock. In addition, we believe EPS will be $0.86 now, versus street consensus of $0.81 (our prior estimate was also above consensus at $0.82).
• Our short thesis had been premised on the lack of growth post-FY2010 (we are still expecting flat EPS in FY11, albeit off a higher base). However, with earnings heading higher, shorting for an FY11 earnings miss simply feels pointless.

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See Also:

• James Cameron’s "Avatar" Could Burn Through $500 Million
• Twitter Avatar-Gate Rolls Into Day Two
• Psych! James Cameron’s "Avatar" Not As Expensive As Originally Stated

Facebook has made changes to their privacy settings that have two major consequences. The first is that the default settings now share much more information. The second is that users can no longer protect their social network from Facebook’s “Applications”.

Most of the media attention has been on how information is exposed to search engines such as Bing and Google. This is important, but there are complex workarounds. It’s not the most interesting or important consequence anyway.

The more important consequence is that Facebook’s shady App vendors (see: Scamville Furor, Facebook and the eBay disease) can no longer be blocked from accessing a player’s social network. So every App vendor has access to all player “friends” and all of the information they in turn make available in their public profiles. Remember that most of those public profiles now contain a great deal of personal data.

The Facebook Apps are “free”, but these vendors are not charities. They earn money by selling game goods, marketing extra-game services and products (some fraudulent), and by selling information. They will sell the social network information they harvest. They will also use that social network to find new “players” (aka “victims”).

To understand this it helps to think of Facebook as the African plains. In this metaphor Facebook users are rhinos and zebras and Facebook App vendors are lions.

Both rhinos and zebras graze on Facebook grass (photo sharing, social stories, contact information). They get along. So how are they different?

The rhinos don’t do Apps and they restrict access to their personal information. They’re tough and nasty; they don’t directly feed lions. The zebras, however, do Apps, and they travel in herds. They’re sleek, soft and vulnerable. Find one, you can find more. Lions eat zebras.

It’s messy for the zebras, but that’s how the market works. The Facebook ecosystem is a rich feeding ground, and lions have to eat.

Of course the Facebook ecosystem is more complex. Facebook rhinos and zebras are often friends and family. Even though lions don’t eat rhinos, FB lions find rhinos through their zebra friends. They then sell Rhino locations (information) to big game hunters (banks?) who sell Rhino horns for fertility potions (risk profiles).

The market world is different because rhinos and zebras can fight back. Not every vendor scores a 10 on Gordon’s scale of corporate evil; Google’s a mere 3 at the moment. There’s more than one way to make money – though the alternatives may mean a smaller IPO. On the other hand, Facebook’s current strategy runs the risk that IPO buyers will remember eBay.

It’s not clear that there’s anything to be done about Facebook. The corporate culture there is probably too much like 1990s Microsoft or 2010 Goldman Sachs for them to find another road. I’ve stopped encouraging my friends to join up with Facebook.

If you want to continue grazing Facebook’s grasslands however, and you don’t want to be lion fodder, there’s now only one possible response.

Convert your zebra friends to rhinos. Get them to stop using Apps. If they persist in using Apps, unfriend them. They’re leading the lions to you.

As of today, Facebook apps are the enemy.

Update: Great comment from Nettie. She refers us to Brad Stone’s announcement of the EFF’s complaint to the FTC – cosigned by ten other privacy organizations …

… Ten other privacy organizations signed the complaint, including the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse, the American Library Association and the Consumer Federation of America. The Office of the Privacy Commissioner in Canada has also been looking into Facebook’s privacy guidelines…

I think it’s fair to say that the fan has been hit. Like Nettie, I’ve noticed people drifting away from FB …

We have to agree.

In light of the numerous troubles we can identify today (Citi, the dollar, Greece, etc.) a decline of 1% or less in the market, after the huge move we’ve had this week, would definitely constitute a win.

We’ve already heard it once on CNBC, and we expect to hear a lot of that today.

Of course, if the wheels come off, then it doesn’t matter.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Citi Underwriters Step In To Prevent Stock From Falling Below $3
• Meredith Whitney Whacks Estimates On Goldman And Morgan Stanley Sending Shares Lower
• Citigroup: Watch The Insiders

 
 
Konami today announced another Yu-Gi-Oh game for the Nintendo DS: Yu-Gi-Oh! 5D’s World Championship 2010: Reverse of Arcadia. The game follows a story arc from the animated series involving the reprise of the Dark Signers and their

Google and Amazon have just announced a joint program which should come in handy for bloggers wanting to earn some money from their posts. Earlier this year the Google-owned Blogger introduced a Monetize tab to enable its users to easily add AdSense ads to their blogs. Now, it’s taking it one step further by partnering with Amazon to integrate the company’s Amazon Associates program with Blogger. This will allow users to easily ad links to products as well as earn a referral fee if any purchases are made from those links.

“Today we launched a third option: direct integration with Amazon Associates to search Amazon’s product catalog and add links to products that earn you commissions when your readers buy products you recommend,” Blogger’s Rick Klau wrote. “[Y]ou can search the Amazon product catalog without leaving the Blogger interface and insert links to the products you find into your posts. Not only is the process of linking to products more efficient, but Amazon makes it easy for you to earn money whenever your readers actually buy the products you write about.”

Blogger users interested in the new option will find it in the Monetization section which already features AdSense advertising options, as well as AdSense for Feeds. There is now a third tab, Amazon Associate… (read more)

This is truly the trinket for the person who has everything (or maybe just that lucky someone with a big batch of red walnuts from the farmers’ market). But when we saw it, we thought it was an oh-so-lovely stocking stuffer that’s practical, too. There’s only one problem with the one pictured above.

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Guest contributor: Karen Collins, M.S., R.D., C.D.N.
Karen Collins holds a B.S. degree from Purdue and an M.S. degree from Cornell, both in nutrition. When she’s not writing or speaking, she conducts a private nutrition practice in Jamestown, New York.

Q: How much cholesterol-lowering power can I expect from one bowl of oatmeal a day?

The best research linking oatmeal consumption and cholesterol levels shows drops of about 10 mg/dl in LDL (“bad”) cholesterol with a daily serving of three-quarters of a cup of quick or old-fashioned oats as measured before cooking. A standard serving, according to the label, starts with a half cup of oats, so the three-quarter cup would be one and a half servings.

This amount of oats — equivalent to three packets of instant oatmeal — provides three grams of soluble fiber. Although oats’ fiber (beta-glucan) is established as effective in lowering cholesterol, research also supports aiming for soluble fiber from a variety of sources, such as barley, legumes and many fruits.

According to the National Cholesterol Education Program, increasing consumption of soluble fiber by 5 to 10 grams a day can decrease LDL cholesterol about 5 percent. The program’s guidelines recommend aiming for a total of at least 5 to 10 grams of soluble fiber daily, and preferably 10 to 25 grams a day.

So if two or three bowls of oatmeal is unrealistic for you, you could reach the overall target by combining options. For example, you get 2 grams of soluble fiber from each half cup of oats (measured before cooking), 2 or 3 grams from each half cup of kidney beans or other legumes, and 1 or 2 grams from each piece of fruit or each half cup of broccoli, carrots or some other vegetables.

The amount your cholesterol drops will likely also depend on what foods oatmeal replaces: if it means you’re omitting some unhealthy foods like bacon and sausage or doughnuts, it may lead to a bigger change in blood cholesterol than if it replaces a generally healthy choice like a bowl of shredded wheat.

Q: I hear so much about antioxidants in dark chocolate providing health benefits. Does milk chocolate really offer nothing?

In equal size portions with equal calories, dark chocolate provides nearly three times the total antioxidant power that you get from milk chocolate, according to United States Department of Agriculture data. Studies show that the higher the nonfat cocoa solids, the higher the antioxidant compounds chocolate contains.

But milk chocolate’s antioxidants are also significant. In fact, the ORAC score (a measure of antioxidant power) of milk chocolate is higher than that of red grapes, blueberries, nuts or almonds if you compare equal weights of all foods.

But that’s not a fair comparison, since you’d get many times more calories getting those antioxidants from chocolate (whether milk or dark chocolate) than from fruit. Furthermore, although nuts are concentrated in calories, they provide additional benefits beyond their antioxidants, such as fiber, protein and other nutrients.

To maintain a healthy weight most people should limit chocolate to small amounts daily so it will only provide a fraction of a day’s antioxidant total compared to antioxidants from vegetables, fruits, whole grain, beans, nuts and other selections such as tea or coffee. Bottom line: You get more antioxidants from dark chocolate, but if milk chocolate is your preference, enjoy it and keep your focus on a balanced diet for the health benefits.

Q: Are tonic and club soda good low-sugar alternatives to regular soft drinks and sweetened mixers?

A: Club soda is a zero-calorie, zero-sugar beverage. However, tonic is not. Even though it does not taste very sweet, 12 ounces of tonic — with 124 calories and 32 grams of sugar (8 teaspoons) — is only slightly lower in sugar’s empty calories than regular soft drinks, which may contain from 135 to 150 calories in the same portion.

And choosing tonic saves nothing compared to sweet mixers like Collins mix. The big calorie savings with these drinks would be drinking your tonic with just a squirt of lime or lemon and omitting the alcohol. If you’re really trying to avoid concentrated sugar and calories, stick with club soda, unsweetened seltzer and sparkling water options.

(This article was provided by the American Institute for Cancer Research in Washington, D.C. A registered dietician is available to respond to questions about diet, nutrition, and cancer at the free AICR Hotline at 1 (800) 843-8114 during business hours.)

From the RSS feed of CalorieLab News (REF3076322B7)

The healing power of oatmeal, milk chocolate

Interesting footnote to the disastrous Citi offering (which Bob Pisani reminds us is the biggest equity offering in US history, so that’s awesome!): the underwriters had to step in and snap up shares to prevent the stock from going below $3.

CNBC’s David Faber reported the news just now, and it may continue to spook the markets.

If the stock does fall below $3 — and it certainly may, perhaps even today — it will signal that the decision to let Citi repay TARP was either woefully early or woefully late.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• CITI OFF 8%
• Asia, Europe, Gold, US Down As Citi’s Weak Secondary Reveals Limits To Liquidity
• Financial Stocks Have Been Warning Of Trouble For Months

Don’t be surprised by the surging dollar, and the absence of appetite for Citigroup (C) shares.

Financial stocks have been acting ominously for a couple months.

As a refresher, here’s a 3-month comparison of Goldman Sachs (GS) and the S&P 500.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• CITI OFF 8%
• Asia, Europe, Gold, US Down As Citi’s Weak Secondary Reveals Limits To Liquidity
• Citi’s Secondary Prices Weak, Treasury Holds Back On Dumping Stake To Avoid Flooding The Market

Filed under: Budget, China, Suzuki, Volkswagen, India

Volkswagen and Suzuki won’t waste anytime at all in getting started on their assorted joint projects. Well, unless you count the holidays, which we’ll let slide. At the launch of the new Suzuki Alto, CEO Osama Suzuki told reporters that the newly tied-at-the-hip automakers will begin “Actual, detailed execution – with our people going there and their people coming here… after January.”

That first project will be a new small car that will be sold in developing countries, which may or may not be outsourced from Suzuki’s Indian Maruti operations and is rumored to cost between $4,300 and $5,400.

Volkswagen has much less experience in building small cars than Suzuki, which is a leader in Japan’s tiny Kei car class, and in making money with such low prices.

[Source: Automotive News – Sub. Req’d]

REPORT: Suzuki CEO indicates joint projects with VW to start in January originally appeared on Autoblog on Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The possibility of agreement in Copenhagen is all but lost. As world leaders arrived at the UN Climate Change Conference, there ultimately may be nothing for them to vote on.


As protestors outside the Bella Convention Centre were doused in pepper spray beaten with batons and 230 of them arrested and detained, inside negotiators still dealing with core issues debated until just before dawn, without setting new goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions or for financing poorer countries efforts to cope with climate change, which are viewed as the two key elements if any deal is to be reached.


“We are extremely disappointed” said Ian Fry, from the tiny Pacific nation of Tuvalu. “I have the feeling of dread, we are on the Titanic and sinking fast. Its time to launch the lifeboats” he added.


After nine days of largely unproductive talks, the lower-level delegates are wrapping up the first phase of the two week conference and handing off the disputes to environment ministers in a critical second phase.



While there are reports of a new proposal on its way to the conference, any deal is going to be subject to China agreeing to one key point – third party confirmation. Something they are not willing to consider.


It may sound very obtuse to suggest that this conference, billed as the most important the world has ever seen, all the hype and fanfare under which it started will come to one single point. Unless China, the worlds largest polluter comes on board, then what is the point?


And as of early this morning, China is not changing its position, stating they no longer see a possibility of achieving an operational accord to tackle global warming. Suggesting “a short political declaration of some sort”. It would appear that China has left the building, at least mentally, if not physically.


The U.S. has put its position on the table – 17% cut from 2005 levels by 2020 – a far cry from the 34% cut developing countries are looking for. The US also signalled a willingness to pay their “fair share” into a 10 billion US dollar fund to help developing countries. They also stressed that President Barack Obama won’t be bringing anything to the talks beyond what has been promised. “We don’t want to promise something we don’t have” said Todd Stern, chief of the US delegation.


The US, the worlds second largest polluter, has the loudest voice when it comes to calling on China to allow inspectors in to verify that reductions are being made. The US does not believe they would be able to get any change through the House and Senate without China agreeing to inspectors.


With less than 48 hours to go, unless these two countries can find some common ground, the possibility of any substantial deal is looking very grim indeed.

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related.posts:

1. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: Day 8 Recap
2. Copenhagen Climate Conference: Day 4
3. Copenhagen Climate Change Conference: Week 1 Round-Up

Copycense points us to an ongoing lawsuit by a guy seeking to bar the Baltimore Ravens and the NFL from making use commercially of any game involving the Ravens from 1996 to 1998. At issue was that this guy claimed his logo design was copied by the team. A few years back, William Patry detailed the ridiculousness behind the original lawsuit and how it had resulted in many more ridiculous lawsuits:

Bouchat, a security guard in Baltimore, believed that the Baltimore Ravens had infringed a design he claims to have created for the team’s logo. He sued the team and the NFL’s licensing arm. In my opinion, there was no evidence of access and the thus the case should have been summarily dismissed. In my opinion, the case was a shakedown. But, applying the fatally flawed theory of striking similarity, the case went to a jury. The jury found liability, and the Fourth Circuit affirmed in an awful decision that drew an excellent dissent by Judge King, 228 F.3d 489 (4th Cir. 2000), amended by and pet. for reh’g en banc denied. 241 F.3d 350. Judge King’s dissent is the best thing yet written on why striking similarity is inherently inconsistent with basic copyright principles, and as to the facts in Bouchat, devastating to the plaintiff’s claim and the majority opinion.

While Bouchat “won,” he wasn’t given any money, because he had failed to register his design before it was put into use. But he’s since sued various other companies, and this latest lawsuit is an attempt to say that no one can show those old films because they use “his” logo, despite the lack of evidence of actual copying (which, if copyright were actually about copyright would be necessary). The lower court turned him down, noting that the use of the logo was incidental and fair use, but Bouchat is (of course) appealing. This is, again, in line with Patry’s analysis that this is nothing more than a shakedown. He’s not really interested in stopping the sale of these videos. He wants the team to pay him a big chunk of money so that it can keep selling the videos. This is not what copyright is intended to do, but it’s what happens when copyright law gets out of control.

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Though we’ve already tickled your taste buds with a peppermint mocha, some might like their peppermint without a side of coffee. Instead, make your own peppermint schnapps, a perfect addition to some hot cocoa enjoyed by a warm fire this holiday season.

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from various sources, 17 December 2009: “There will be a mass demonstration outside the Danish Embassy in London in solidarity with those unlawfully arrested and detained in Copenhagen during the Climate Summit protests. Today on Thursday the 17 December from 4pm onwards. The address of the embassy is: 5 Sloane Street, London SW1X 9SR. Nearest tube Knightsbridge.

As many people as possible need to turn up to protest at the Danish state’s appallling treatment of climate protesters and its denial of free speach. Spread the word far and wide!” more