SAI Hydraulics Canada Ltd. is located in the heart of Montreal, CN. SAI Hydr. Canada has provided sales and service to the Canadian marketplace since 1969. They are a full service subsidiary and are capable of providing products ranging from seal kits to complete units. SAI USA works in conjunction with SAI Hydraulics Canada Ltd. providing support for Canadian/U.S. company needs large and small. Some of the industries served in Canada are forestry, agriculture, and oil. They are continually looking for new emerging markets and working to better support existing customers. SAI Hydr. Canada Ltd. is an important component in providing quality support for SAI products throughout Canada. Their staff is always pleased to welcome new customers and projects into the SAI family of products. Please contact us with your requirements.

This new product is very hard to hear! The low noise coaxial-drive (Koaxdrive) KD 32 planetary gearhead from maxon motor is setting new standards in operating noise and torque levels. Measuring 32 mm in diameter and with a torque of 6.5 Nm, it is ideal for use in noise-sensitive, highly demanding applications.

The new Koaxdrive KD 32 combines the best of two proven gearing technologies, namely worm and planetary gearing. Special attention has been focused on the first gear stage, as this is where the greatest peripheral speeds occur and therefore noise. Our completely new, patent-protected design has enabled us to substantially reduce this noise. The, worm-formed motor pinion drives the three offset planetary wheels. These interlock with the internal gear which has straight cut teeth. The plastic planetary wheels are largely responsible for reducing noise levels.
All additional stages are set out as a completely “normal” straight-cut planetary gearhead. This unique torque conversion makes operation very quiet – even with high loads.

With an outer diameter of only 32 mm and a coaxial arrangement on the drive and output shaft, the Koaxdrive is designed for compact applications. A number of efficiency levels with the same reduction ratio increases the wide variety of applications: In the 11:1 to 1091:1 range, many reduction ratios are available as standard. maxon motor also offers high reduction ratios in one stage. A new, innovative coupling element is assembled on the motor side so that the motor shaft is not subjected to axial load. Maximum flexibility is created by the motor shaft diameter not being of primary importance. Input speeds of up to 8,000 RPM can easily be reached.

maxon’s modular system enables the Koaxdrive KD 32 to be assembled with various maxon motors. These low-noise combinations are ideal for hand tools and instruments that are used principally on or near patients in the medical technology sector.

We’re actually starting to put together a trend of jobless claims numbers below 500k. No doubt this is at least one good sign on the unemployment front.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The tally of newly laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly for the fifth straight week, a hopeful sign that the job market is slowly improving.

The Labor Department says first-time claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000, the lowest total since the week of Sept. 6, 2008.

Wall Street economists expected an increase, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

A Labor Department analyst says the closing of state unemployment offices for last week’s Thanksgiving holiday was responsible for some of the decline.

The number of people claiming benefits for more than a week rose by 28,000 to 5.5 million. Analysts had expected a decline.

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See Also:

• JPMorgan: 10.4% Unemployment Coming This Friday

There was a lot of reasonable concern earlier this year when a much needed federal shield law proposal appeared to ignore participatory journalists and only cover those employed by major media companies. After people complained about this we were relieved to see Senators Chuck Schumer and Arlen Specter change the bill to cover participatory journalism as well. As they realized such a law should be about protecting acts of journalism not some arbitrary definition of journalists.

Unfortunately, it looks like some other Senators disagree. Karl Bode alerts us to the news that Senators Dianne Feinstein and Dick Durbin are specifically trying to limit the bill to only covering major media journalists. It’s hard to see any rationale for such a move, but it does seem rather obnoxious. One of the fundamental points of a strong media is the ability to protect their sources. Without that, it’s that much harder for the media to actually hold anyone accountable, since sources will be more afraid to reveal important information. Why would Senators Feinstein and Durbin be so against protecting the process of journalism?

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Filed under: Sedan, Europe, Plants/Manufacturing, Mercedes-Benz, Luxury

Fluctuations and disparities in currency exchange rates have grown to become a significant factor in determining where foreign automakers in particular assemble their vehicles. Mercedes-Benz is among those carmakers most cognizant of these effects, and it has been assembling select models in the United States to meet local demands. Now the German automaker has announced that, for the next generation of its popular C-Class sedan due in 2014, partial production will shift to its assembly plant in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where the M-Class, R-Class and GL-Class crossovers are already built.

The shift in production – which is set to comprise no more than one-fifth of global C-Class production – will not only help offset currency rates, but also afford greater flexibility in meeting local customer demand. The move is expected to further upset Germany’s automotive workforce, which has grown restless in the wake of General Motors’ collapsed sale of Opel.

In addition to the partial shift to Alabama, German production of the remaining four-fifths of C-Class production is set to switch places with the SL-Class roadster, the former moving from Sindelfingen to Bremen and the latter vice-versa. Full details in the press release after the jump.

[Source: Mercedes-Benz]

Continue reading Confirmed: Mercedes to shift some production of next-gen C-Class to Alabama

Confirmed: Mercedes to shift some production of next-gen C-Class to Alabama originally appeared on Autoblog on Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:29:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Things are as messy as ever in the music streaming business yet most people are surprisingly determined in pushing forward. MySpace is now launching its Music service in the UK after being available in the US and recently in Australia and New Zealand. The free streaming service will offer millions of songs, though no exact figure was provided, and tens of thousands videos taking Spotify, which is very popular in the country, head on.

“The UK is renowned for its passionate and committed music fans, and MySpace has had a rich history with its artist community. Acts like Arctic Monkeys and Lily Allen embraced MySpace from the outset, and are now synonymous with the site. I’m thrilled to announce MySpace Music is now officially available to all artists and music fans in the UK,” MySpace Music president Courtney Hold writes.

MySpace Music will be completely free in the UK with an ad-supported revenue model. There will be ads in between songs as all the advertising will be on the site itself. Of course, this is true for most websites in the world so it’s not exactly surprising. However, Spotify, which will likely be its greatest competitor in the UK, does insert audio ads between tracks in the free version of the service so this may very well be MySpace’s biggest draw.

MySpace has support from … (read more)

An analyst report from RBS examines how investors are going absolutely bonkers for precious metal ETFs:

RBS: The strong price gains seen in November across the precious metals have brought with them fresh investor interest in the sector. At end November all four families of precious metal ETFs stood at record highs in both volume and value terms. But the net speculative long positions on COMEX/NYMEX also stand at near record levels for all of the precious metals.

Here’s the breakdown:

Gold ETF holdings rose by 24t (1%) in November to a record 1,762t. Holdings are up by 573t (48%) YTD. The value of gold ETF holdings rose by $8.5bn (15%) to a record $66.6bn as the gold price rose by $136/oz (13%). Total ETF value has increased by $34bn (101%) YTD. In euro terms the gold price rose by 11% mom as the US dollar finished the month 2% weaker against the euro. The euro value of gold holdings rose by 13% in November, ending the month at €44.5bn.

Silver ETF holdings rose by 787t (7%) in November to a record 11,882t. ETF value rose by $1bn (17%) as the silver price rose by 9% mom in US dollars and 8% in euros. YTD holdings have advanced by 3,628t (44%) and the value of holdings has increased by 142% in US dollars and 125% in euros.

Platinum ETF holdings rose by 1.7t (9%) in November to a record 20.4t and the value of holdings rose by 9% in US dollars and 7% in euros. YTD platinum holdings have advanced by 121% and their value has increased by 255% in US dollars and 231% in euros.

Palladium ETF holdings rose by 1.3t (4%) in November to a record 35.3t and their value advanced by 15% in US dollars and 14% in euros. YTD palladium holdings have risen by 72% and their value has increased by 237% in US dollars and 214% in euros.

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See Also:

• Here’s The Real Peak In Gold
• Interest Brews In The Other Yellow Metal: Uranium
• Chinese Metal Stockpiling Is Coming To An End

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers just reported their fourth quarter results today.

While they continued to lose money mostly due to inventory write-downs and other charges, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about the future housing market.

Why?

Because they’ve noticed that their key customers, wealthy Americans, are doing just fine, and have a very bright future.

They also say houses are more affordable than they’ve been in a very long time. So perhaps it’s time you upgraded your life with one of their latest models…

Check out why selling McMansions is awesome business right now >>>

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See Also:

• Toll Brothers: Look, McMansions Are More Affordable Than Ever (TOL)
• California Housing Market Continues To Recover, Befuddling Bears
• McMansion Living Comes To Iraq

On this day, 15 years ago, the Japanese saw the launch of the first PlayStation. Ahh yes, December 3rd, 1994, huge day for gaming. While the younger generation wouldn’t know how gaming was back then, there was a time when all

Ideally, you want to fund yourself in a currency that’s going down, so that when it comes time to pay back your lender, you’re giving back less money than you borrowed. It’s the essence of the carry trade, and it’s why many believe that the relentlessly declining dollar is the basis for a new, bubble-making carry trade.

The old standby, the Japanese Yen, has been a disaster, as it’s surged to a 14-year high.

But Morgan Stanley is giving the greenlight to start borrowing in yen:

We have been yen bulls for an extended period. Now that we have reached our long-standing target of ¥85, we think that the risk-reward for holding long JPY positions is less interesting. Indeed, there are a number of factors which suggest that it’s a good time to book some profit in USD shorts and begin to use the JPY as the funding currency. 

The roadmap for the 2009 FX market can easily be captured by the “punish the printer” theme. The most aggressive printers, namely the US and UK, have seen their currencies underperform, particularly against those currencies where the risk of printing was always close tozero — namely Australia, New Zealand and most EM countries such as Brazil. This theme has pushedv aluations to an extreme in most cases.

While the UK and US still have issues with respect to successfully reversing their balance-sheet expansion, and for that reason we still think the dollar and sterling will struggle to fully reverse this year’s losses until it is clear they can successfully exit their QE programs, the level of the yen on a relative basis suggests to us that it is a good time to substitute some dollar shorts for yen
shorts. Playing a reversal of the “punish the printer” theme is perhaps one of the biggest currency
opportunities available in 2010, and we will continue to monitor it accordingly.

As can be seen in Exhibit 1, a basket of long USD and GBP against EUR and JPY is at fairly interesting levels for those inclined to fade the heavily populated “punish the printer” theme amongst the world’s four most liquid currencies. If we are right about USD/JPY, then this could start to turn now, especially as the EUR is around 30% expensive against both sterling and the dollar.

Why do we think USD/JPY is close to a bottom?

We think that Japanese authorities will want to resist yen strength around the ¥85 area, given that a break of this level sets up a test of all-time lows in USD/JPY around ¥80. Japan has not intervened in the currency market since 16 March 2004, not resisting the recent bout of dollar weakness. And despite risks to the domestic economy from the strong currency, they have kept to the spirit of the G20’s desire to deal with global imbalances. This has also been at a time when China’s renminbi has
been linked to a very weak dollar. Japan has been a good global citizen, but after this week’s surprise
announcement of further liquidity measures by the Bank of Japan, it is perhaps an early indication that they are getting increasingly concerned about their economic prospects at a time when other central banks are thinking more about their exit strategies.

This might also imply that if the yen were to strengthen further the probability of intervention would rise quite sharply.  Coordinated intervention cannot be ruled out either, given that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has recently talked about a strong dollar being a source of global stability and that the Fed is attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will formulate policy to guard against risks to their dual mandate. The recent Fed minutes also referred to the link between the dollar and inflation. There are many countries which are currently unhappy with dollar
weakness (strength in their own currencies) or the low level of the federal funds rate such as the Eurozone, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Brazil, Hong Kong, China and other Asian countries. A general stabilization of the dollar would suit everyone’s needs and help to contain any inflationary pressure in the US.

Source: Morgan Stanley: FX Impulse: Time to fund in Yen instead of Dollars?

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See Also:

• The Nikkei Explodes 3.8% Higher
• The Nikkei Is Perfectly Aligned With The S&P 500 As Measured In Gold
• With Dollar At 14-Year Low Against Yen, Japan Raises Hints Of Dramatic Intervention

Google is plowing ahead with Street View despite all the opposition from several concerned parties and it’s a good thing too, the feature is quickly becoming a huge repository as more and more cities and countries are added to the list. The program just got a huge boost with a bunch of new locations added in one fell swoop, fun places like SeaWorld and other theme parks, Stonehenge, nine new cities in Canada and an entire country, Singapore, which we covered yesterday.

“Today’s update to Street View is a whale of a launch — literally! We’ve added imagery gathered by our Trike for several special attractions we’ve partnered with in the United States, including the SeaWorld parks. Of course, that includes photos of SeaWorld’s biggest star, Shamu,” Julie Sohn from Content Partnerships Team at Street View wrote.

Continuing in the same line as Google’s cheesy play-on-words, the new SeaWorld photos are bound to make a big splash – literally. Virtual visitors will be able to move around the parks and even view the dolphins in mid air. Three SeaWorld locations are now available in Street View, but they’re not the only theme parks to be added. Images from Hersheypark in Pennsylvania were also part of the update and rollercoaster enthusiasts can check out all the rides before actually v… (read more)

Stocks have jumped about 70% from the March lows.  As we’ve noted, they have also blasted past most estimates of fair value, which are generally around 900 on the S&P 500 on a cyclically-adjusted price-earnings ratio (see professor Robert Shiller’s chart below),

London economist Andrew Smithers says valuations are even more extreme.  In a recent interview with Kate Welling of Weeden & Co., he put the overvaluation at 40%:

Would you mind running through how you arrive at that 40% overpriced valuation?

Certainly. The EPS on the S&P 500 for the 12 months to June 20, 2009 were $7.51, making the P/E with the index at 1073 (when I ran the numbers on Oct. 13) 143, which was 10 times the long-term average P/E, using data which start in 1871.

Which superficially sounds like a lot more than 40% overvalued —

Yes, but that doesn’t mean the market is horribly expensive, because profits have recently been
quite depressed. Equally of course, though this point is often ignored, claims that the market is selling at some low future multiple would not show that the market today is cheap.

In order to assess value, it is necessary either to calculate the level at which the EPS would be if profits were neither depressed nor elevated, or to use a metric of value which does not depend on profits. The cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) normalizes EPS by averaging them over 10 years [See chart above]. It thus follows the first of those two possible methods. Using even longer time periods has advantages, particularly as EPS have been exceptionally volatile in recent years —and using longer time periods raises the current measured degree of overvaluation.

The other methodology we use measures stock market value without reference to profits: the q ratio. It
compares the market capitalization of companies with their net worth, also adjusted to current
prices. The validity of both of these approaches can be tested and is robust under testing —and they produce results that agree. Currently, both q and CAPE are saying that the U.S. stock market is
about 40% overvalued.

Of course, today’s overvaluation doesn’t tell you much about what stocks will do next week, next year, or even the next 5-10 years.  As the chart above shows, before the 2007 market crash, stocks were overvalued for the better part of 20 years–and observing that didn’t help you make money.  On the contrary, it usually got you fired.

What today’s valuation does suggest is that stocks are priced to return a bit less than average over the next decade, perhaps 3% real per year (inflation adjusted), as compared to the 6%-7% average.

Today’s valuations also suggest that stocks may have gotten way ahead of themselves, especially in light of the structural problems that will continue to bog down the economy.

As the chart above illustrates, every one of the prior mega-busts in the past century has been followed by a “trough” in which the cyclically adjusted PE ratio hit the high single-digits.  We didn’t quite make it there in March (the P/E bottomed around 12X), although we did get close.

This, combined with what is likely to be a decade of deleveraging, consumer retrenchment, and sluggish growth as we work off our debt binge, suggests that we still yet might hit that single-digit low before we take off on another secular bull market again.  This could be achieved either through another market crash, or a prolonged period of backing and filling as earnings growth gradually reduces the long-term PE ratio (this is what happened in the 1970s).

On the other hand, it is possible that that enormous stimulus and zero interest rates over the past two years will produce that “v-shaped” recovery.   At this point, given the extent of the recent rally, it would presumably have to be one heck of a “V” to send stocks soaring from here.  But the last eight months have already made idiots out of almost everyone.

See: The Stock Market Rally That Turned Gurus Into Fools

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• Stocks Back To Fair Value!
• DOW 5000, Revisited
• The Idiot-Maker Rally

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) reported a fourth quarter loss of $111.4 million ($0.68 per share) today.

This net loss was worse than the -$0.46 analysts expected and the -$0.49 reported a year ago. Excluding inventory write-downs and a costs for the early retirement of debt they almost broke even, losing just $9.6 million in the quarter.

Yet despite the worse than expected loss, Toll made it clear that they felt the housing bottom was past, and highlighted that housing affordability was now better than it has been in a very long time. The problem is just that people have far less to spend these days, especially when it comes to buying a luxury property from Toll.

Toll CEO Robert Toll: Recent news reports indicate that one in four Americans have mortgages that exceed the value of their homes, which restricts their ability to sell and move to another home. On the other hand, affordability hovers near an all-time high, mortgage rates are near historic lows, and home prices, although down to 2003 levels, have improved sequentially over the past two quarters according to the most recent S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. And although the volume of home sales continues to be near record lows, inventories of unsold homes are declining nationally.

Toll is getting more aggressive, and confident, against its competition as well.

“In the past few months, we have been seeing and competing for a greater number of attractive land acquisition opportunities from financial institutions and other sellers. With our strong cash position, our record low net-debt-to-capital ratio and our demonstrated access to liquidity, we believe we can take advantage of opportunities that arise from the current state of distress in our industry.

“As has happened in previous downturns, we believe there will be further consolidation in our industry. Many of the small- and mid-sized private builders, who historically have been our primary competitors in the luxury niche, are facing serious capital constraints, among other problems, and are either hobbled or no longer in business.

See their full earnings release here.

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See Also:

• California Housing Market Continues To Recover, Befuddling Bears
• Latest Facts About The State Of The Housing Market
• Today’s Housing Numbers Do Not Tell Us Anything About The Economy

Craigslist and eBay are heading for all-out war as the two companies are preparing to fight it out in a lawsuit filed by the auctions site set to begin next Monday. The lawsuit is the culmination of a tense relationship between the two companies which has been going for more than five years now. eBay owns a minority stake in the privately-held Craigslist, the reason behind the dispute. The company is also saying that it plans to expand its classified offerings with acquisitions or partnerships in several countries.

eBay bought a stake in Craigslist in 2004 from one of the original investors, initially owning a 28.4 percent slice of the company. Despite initial claims that it would focus on Craigslist in the classified ads market, it later launched a competitor to the site, Kijiji, using inside knowledge it gained as a shareholder at Craigslist, the classifieds company says. This is the object of another lawsuit filed by Craigslist for unfair competition and other claims.

In 2007, after the launch of Kijiji in the US, Craigslist diluted eBay’s stake in the company to just 24.85 percent, losing its seat on the board in the process, a move which eBay claims was made using various illegal tactics. It filed a lawsuit as a consequence and, after two delays, the legal proceedings are about to s… (read more)

Deutsche Bank is out with an outlook for 2010, which includes various themes and risks investors need to watch out for.

The basic idea, laid out by strategists Jim Reid, Mahesh Bhimalingem, and others is that things look good in the beginning of the year, but that trouble spots loom on the horizon.

One in particular they highlight is the possibility of a sovereign default, an issue that’s come to the foreground since Dubai.

They write:

Although we’re positive in the near-term, looking at the world today it’s clear that
the current macro environment will be difficult to sustain. The markets will need
evidence in 2010 that there is an observable path back to fiscal discipline for those
countries that have been most aggressive in responding to the fall-out from this
crisis. If not we continue to run the risk of Sovereign land mines disturbing the
benign corporate landscape. 

Indeed if 2010 is a difficult year it’s highly unlikely that the catalyst comes from
within the equity or corporate credit markets. This means the macro environment
will decide 2010, and in reality investors in Sovereign debt around the world will
probably decide the fate of risk assets. In late 08/09 the authorities had little to
lose in aggressively attempting to stave off a Depressionary cycle. So far they
deserve extremely high marks. However 2010 could be a transitional year
between heavy intervention and the paying of the bills. A return to positive global
growth should help but we would expect more volatility in 2010 than in H2 2009.

Now, see the rest of their worries >>

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See Also:

• Morgan Stanley: Here Comes A Brutal 2010

There are a few countries out there that have “artist resale rights,” which make little sense and do a lot more to harm artists than help them. Earlier this year, we wrote about plans for Australia to implement such a right and Michael Scott alerts us to the news that a watered down version of the plan is moving forward. If you’re unfamiliar with it, the concept is that even after an artist has sold a piece of artwork, such as a painting, if the owners later decide to sell it, they must give back a percentage of the sale price to the original artist. The (faulty) thinking on this is that poor, starving artists sell their paintings or sculptures or whatever for next to nothing, and it’s only later, when they’re famous, that they’re actually worth anything — but the artist will never get a cut of that value.

Of course, that’s not true. In reality, if those earlier works are so valuable, so are many newer works as well — which the artist can create and sell for much more than ever before. Meanwhile, the problem with an artist resale right is it actually decreases the incentive for anyone to buy the original artwork, knowing that they’ll have to sell it for that much more before they can actually make a profit — since they’ll have to kick back fees to the artists. It adds an unnecessary tax that acts as friction in the art market. The Australian plan tries to limit at least some of this issue by only having the resale tax kick in after the second resale. But, of course, this just moves the unnecessary friction up a level, and doesn’t change the thought process that goes into the buying decision. With any other product, once you sell it, you’ve sold it. It makes no sense to allow the original creator to retain a cut of any later sale. Imagine if that were the case with cars or houses as well? Who would ever think that was reasonable?

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	LA 2009: Officially, Official: Golden state to get first dibbs on the Chevy Volt A bit of a reward for relentlessly pushing for plug-in vehicles.		LA 2009: Mitsubishi unveils Geek Squad i-MiEV, brings PX-MiEV to U.S. Geeks with EVs will soon be making house calls.
	LA 2009: Honda’s P-NUT cracked open for all to see Concept cars. What a concept.	Other news: Lexus Magazine explains how to get 85 mpg from HS 250h Feds mull an extra three months to crush Cash For Clunkers victims LA 2009: Volkswagen Up! Lite Concept teases with practical, lightweight innovation

AutoblogGreen for 12.03.09 originally appeared on Autoblog on Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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A reader sent us along this chart, and channels Martin Armstrong in arguing that gold has another couple hundred dollars of upside before a leg down.

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1355 tgt…(got to slide to the right-depending on your screen format) . This is a trial analysis based on formations going all the way back to 1971. You can’t see that part, but I have the data in my head.

Very first move was from 37.50 Gold Parity at the time to 198 (post Nixon gold standard abandonment), then a retrace down to 100 and up to 880ish futures. Take that ratio (198/37.50) = 5.28x. Take that times the post 1980 low (double bounce 1999 (when IMF decreed to limit gold sales) and  Bush inauguration (perhaps NOT a co-incidence) and you get 1335.

The orange overlay moves are the sub cycles, starting IN TIME in 1985 (Plaza accord) and the increment rally then, completing with huge intervention in FAVOR of the $ in Jan 1988. Then a long 13 year retrace after that. One of the reasons was most likely that Central Banks had discovered that they can make 1 ½% pa. So they lent it to banks and hedgefunds and screwed themselves in the process…Borrowers were taking the stuff and selling short and made money on the cash for whatever they did with it AND could cover the shorts at lower prices. No conspiracy as many claim, just incompetent central bankers.

 But the market has funny ways of working. So after all the cb’s started selling on top of that, the Brits were making the bottom in 1999 until the “cartel”  (CB’s) got together and via IMF agreement limited their sales to 600 tons p/a (9/99).

That was the end of the rout. The reason then for the meteoric advance (considering the time frame since spring 01) was basically that we had  spent so much (in my mind I would say TOO much) time going sideways. So we hat to “catch up” with that delay to stay within the time frame. This might sound somewhat abstract, but if one were to draw an analogy one could look at stoxx post ‘66/68. We spent 13 years “sideways” (DJIA) with the compression caused by several oil crisis’ and wars…Nam, Israel I and II, Oil embargo, Iran crisis. Once that was out of the system, we shot up into 1987 by about 3.5x. Crude post 98 did similar moves after having been contained  from ’86 to ’99, again after about 13 years sideways.

Even after 1929, we consolidated 13 years, until the next 26 year bull market (ending 68) in stoxx.

 Besides that, I am watching the headlines on Gold. India buys…China will buy…(private vault were sold out in Germany last fall, cause people stacked up their gold). Also look at C/O/T reports…all the managed money that moves in there. Dreams for sale, come and get it!

 Markets move indeed in a “predetermined” fashion (but not based on hourly or 5 mins charts, as some well known “wavers” make belief). Think of it as a black box of time and price. Draw a square, put in a diagonal lower left to upper right.

That would be a “normalized” time/price move…If mkt gets to top line “too early” it will stall out…(See dow from the fall of 1999 to May 01). Or the inverse would be the 1987 crash…) Same if too much time at the “bottom” we race.

 Back to gold: (and this is a trial …first breakdown should come within the next 2-5% (abs 1265ish- quant tgt) then perhaps a breakdown of some 10/15% and then new high at 1350ish..(we can go straight, this is just based in submoves)

In a hyper-bubble, perhaps 1500, but given the chart I sent you, I would be surprised if we exceeded that. As an abs number (but markets are not absolute) 1335 would be the best fit.

A word on the inflation (expectation) argument for gold. Most pundits use the top of 1980 (880futs) as a BASE for predicting inflation adjusted prices in the 2k and Schiff was just talking of 5000…(yeah, real estate was going up forever, too and so were stoxx in 00 and 07 and crude at 150….If one were to do an OBJECTIVE analysis on that one should go back to 1913 (gold had been about 18.50 for more or less all the time after the civvy war) which coincides with the founding of the FED and income taxes in 1913 (prior to that a mild deflation of about 0.5% since 1876). If one take the FED inflation calc gold should be no more than 400$ if inflation is the only driver over time. So that would be a good level to look for, if we can stop at the 1300/1400 level.

Join the conversation about this story »

See Also:

• David Rosenberg: Buy The Gold Dips, Because It’s Only Going Higher
• REPORT: Martin Armstrong Moved To High-Security Facility, Prevented From Publishing Research
• Martin Armstrong: Gold Headed To $5,000 And Beyond!

If you thought that Google’s homepage couldn’t possibly be more stripped down, think again. Google is now making its fade-in homepage official and most users should start to see the ultra-minimalistic homepage from now on. The page features just the Google logo, the search button and the I’m feeling lucky button and nothing else unless you move the mouse. The company says this change allows users to focus on the thing they most likely came for, searching.

“For the vast majority of people who come to the Google homepage, they are coming in order to search, and this clean, minimalist approach gives them just what they are looking for first and foremost. For those users who are interested in using a different application like Gmail, Google Image Search or our advertising programs, the additional links on the homepage only reveal themselves when the user moves the mouse,” Marissa Mayer, VP of Search Products and User Experience, Kris Hom, software engineer, and Jon Wiley, User Experience designer, wrote.

There isn’t that much to tell about the new homepage that isn’t obvious from the first time you visit it. If you don’t move the mouse and start typing your query the page will stay clear of any links with just the suggestion box popping out to spoil the fun. If you want to do something else, form the homepage except search you’ll have to mov… (read more)

(This guest post originally appeared at the author’s blog)

The granddaddy of economic reports is out this Friday – the monthly jobs report.  Consensus is looking for another large loss of -100K jobs and a steady unemployment rate at 10.2%.  This would market a dramatic improvement over last month’s -219K. Last months report showed some tepid signs of strength as temp work gained 34K.  This is generally viewed as a leading indicator.

Yesterday’s ADP report is expecting a -169K drop in jobs.  This report has not proven to be a good predictor of payrolls over the last few years, but the large discrepancy could be a sign that analysts are a bit too optimistic with regards to payrolls.  The Challenger job cut report also showed some mixed signals yesterday.  Total layoff intentions slipped to 50K from 181K last November.  On the downside, total hiring intention was just 10K compared to Octobers 57K.   While the pace of firings might be slowing we’re by no means seeing a massive pick-up in hiring.

JP Morgan is in-line with consensus on payrolls, but expects an upside surprise in the unemployment rate.  They think the report overall could disappoint, but maintain that the jobless recovery won’t be so bad:

We expect that nonfarm employment declined 100,000 in November, compared to a drop of 190,000 in October and an average decline of 188,000 over the last three months. We also expect that the unemployment rate rose to 10.4% from 10.2%.

claims fell by 394,000. Moreover, initial jobless claims have declined by 108,000 over the last 13 weeks.  A surprisingly weak industry in October was manufacturing (-61,000), and this could be an area where we see more moderate job losses in November. Manufacturing surveys have pointed to better numbers—the ISM employment index hit 53.1 by October—and we forecast a 30,000 drop in November.

Earnings and hours: We expect a soft 0.1%m/m gain in average hourly earnings, which is consistent with the level of slack in the labor market. We also anticipate an increase in the workweek to 33.1 hours from 33.0.

Payrolls: Employment figures have been disappointing in recent months. We had been expecting that payroll losses would moderate, but employment declines have actually hovered in a narrow range for the last three months. This has been especially surprising given that initial jobless claims have fallen steadily over this period. While jobless claims are by no means a perfect guide to employment changes, their steady fall does suggest that employment losses should soon moderate. Initial jobless claims fell by 30,000 between the October and November household survey weeks, and continuing jobless

Unemployment: The household survey, from which the unemployment rate is calculated, has recently shown larger job losses than the establishment survey. The household survey is typically much more volatile than the establishment survey and is considered less reliable when looking at short-term employment changes. Nonetheless, the horrible numbers coming from the household survey have been worrying, and we would hope to see it converge toward the establishment survey soon. A rise in the unemployment rate to 10.3% from 10.2% is consistent with our employment estimate of -100,000, but we believe a rise to 10.4% is actually more likely. The reason is that labor force participation has fallen rapidly in recent months, and there is the possibility that it will bounce back. The participation rate went from 65.5% in August to 65.1% in October, its lowest level since 1986.

Even with a potential downside surprise I don’t expect the market to respond too negatively.  There is light at the end of the jobs tunnel and I fully expect the economy to move into job creation some time early next year.  For now, the market is likely to continue focusing on that point in time.  A 10.4% unemployment rate could certainly cause a near-term sell-off, but I doubt the dip-buyers will shy away from the opportunity to pile into equities again.  These reports are going to have less psychological impact on the market until they begin to turn positive.  Only then will the truly heavy lifting begin.

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See Also:

• Unemployment Worsens, Climbs In Nearly Half Of U.S. Metro Areas
• 10%+ Unemployment Through 2015, Says Mish
• ADP Job Loss Report Is Worse Than Expected